Member Briefing March 26, 2025
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the US Fell Further in February
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the US declined by 0.3% in February 2025 to 101.1 (2016=100), after a 0.2% decline (revised from –0.3%) in January. Overall, the LEI fell by 1.0% in the six-month period ending February 2025, less than half of its rate of decline of –2.1% over the previous six months (February–August 2024.) "The US LEI fell again in February and continues to point to headwinds ahead," said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board.
Consumers' expectations of future business conditions turned more pessimistic. That was the component that weighed down most heavily on the Index in February.
Manufacturing new orders, which improved in January, retreated and were the second largest negative contributor to the Index's monthly decline.
On a positive note, the LEI's six-month and annual growth rates, while still negative, have remained on an upward trend since the end of 2023, suggesting that headwinds in the economy as of February may have moderated compared to last year.
However, given substantial policy uncertainty and the notable pullback in consumer sentiment and spending since the beginning of the year, we currently forecast that real GDP growth in the US will slow to around 2.0% in 2025."
Consumer Confidence: Inflation Worries Lead to 12-Year Low in Expectations
The Conference Board reported Tuesday that its consumer confidence index fell 7.2 points in March to 92.9. Analysts were expecting a decline to a reading of 94.5, according to a survey by FactSet. The report said that the measure of Americans’ short-term expectations for income, business and the job market fell 9.6 points to 65.2. It is the lowest reading in 12 years and well below the threshold of 80, which the Conference Board says can signal a potential recession in the near future. However, the proportion of consumers anticipating a recession in the next year held steady at a nine-month high, the board reported.
The board’s survey showed that purchasing plans for both homes and cars declined. However, in somewhat of a surprise given respondents’ anxiety about the future, intentions to buy big-ticket items like appliances increased. The board said that could reflect a desire to buy before Trump’s tariffs kick in, leading to price increases. The board reported Tuesday that consumers’ view of current conditions decreased 3.6 points to 134.5. The consumer confidence index measures both Americans’ assessment of current economic conditions and their outlook for the next six months.
New Home Sales Rise Modestly in February
New home sales picked up slightly in February after a weaker January. The number of sales of new single-family homes reached a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 676,000, up 1.8% from January and up 5.1% from February 2024. The month over month pickup was also seen in sales of existing homes in February, as some modest relief from high mortgage rates came in the second month of the year.
The increased sales volume was accompanied by a decrease in the median sales price, which fell to $414,500 from $427,400 in January. This is a resumption of a trend that was bucked in January in which smaller and more affordable new homes make up a sizable portion of inventory and sales. This is evidenced further by the breakdown of new home sales by price tier, in which February saw a huge jump in the $300,000-$399,999 category. 34% of new homes sold in February fall into this $300K-range category, the highest share in over a year and 7 percentage points higher than January. Regionally, the sales volume gains were concentrated in the more affordable South and Midwest, which saw 6.6% and 20.6% pickups from January respectively, and both regions are seeing more sales activity than a year ago. The pricier Northeast and West regions fell by 21.4% and 13.6% month over month respectively,
Global Headlines
Middle East
- Nuclear Watchdog Hints at Iran Talks as Trump Sets Deadline– Bloomberg
- Israeli Legislators Pass Budget In A Move That Shores Up Netanyahu’s Government - AP
- Israeli Strikes Kill 23 In Gaza, Military Expands Evacuation Orders - Reuters
- Hamas Warns 'Time Is Running Out' in New Israeli Hostage Video - Newsweek
- Israeli Strikes In Southwestern Syria Kill 6 People As Troops Clash With Residents - AP
- Israel Releases Oscar-Winning Palestinian Director After He Was Attacked By West Bank Settlers - WSJ
- Interactive Map- Israel’s Operation In Gaza – Institute For The Study Of War
- Map – Tracking Hamas’ Attack On Israel – Live Universal Awareness Map
Ukraine
- Russia and Ukraine Hold U.S.-Mediated Talks: What to Know – NYT
- White House Says Russia and Ukraine Agree to Stop Fighting in Black Sea - BBC
- US Sees Russia, Ukraine Choosing a Longer War Over a Bad Deal - Bloomberg
- Ukraine Fighter Jets 'Completely' Destroys Russian Base—Kyiv - Newsweek
- Moscow Blames Ukraine For Deadlock Over Ceasefire Deal Talks - CNBC
- Four Russian Helicopters Landed Near The Front Line. A Ukrainian Drone Was Watching—And HIMARS Was Ready. - Forbes
- War Maps Reveal Ukrainian Advances Amid Long-Range Strikes - Newsweek
- Interactive Map: Assessed Control Of Terrain In Ukraine – Institute For The Study Of War
- Map – Tracking Russia’s Invasion Of Ukraine – Live Universal Awareness Map
Other Headlines
- Turkey Protests Are About Far More Than Fate Of Istanbul's Mayor – BBC
- Turkey Scrambles To Stop Financial Rout - Politico
- China Releases Detained Staff of U.S. Due-Diligence Firm Mintz - WSJ
- How the US Is Arming Allies With Missiles To Sink China's Warships - Newsweek
- India Eyes Tariff Cut On More Than Half Of US Imports To Shield Its Exports, Sources Say - Reuters
- EU Trade Chief Flies To Washington Again In Bid To Defuse Transatlantic Trade Fight - Politico
- Sudan's RSF Squeezing Relief Supplies As Famine Spreads, Aid Workers Say - Reuters
- Oil Extends Rebound After Trump Heightens Pressure on Venezuela – Yahoo Finance
- Trump Prompts European Calls for a Homegrown Nuclear Umbrella - WSJ
Policy and Politics
Thune, Johnson Seek Breakthrough On Stalled Trump Agenda
Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.), Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) and key committee chairs from the Senate and House will me Tuesday in hopes of reaching a breakthrough on President Trump’s stalled agenda, including border security, energy and tax reform. Thune told reporters he is hoping the Senate will act on a budget resolution in the next three weeks that would lay the groundwork for moving a package later this year to secure the border, expand domestic oil and gas drilling, boost defense spending by at least $100 billion and extend Trump’s expiring 2017 tax cuts.
Speaker Johnson has set a goal of getting that “one big, beautiful bill” to Trump’s desk by the end of April or — at the latest — by Memorial Day, but Thune has privately told Senate colleagues that ambitious timeline is unrealistic, and that getting it passed by the end of July is a more attainable target. House Republican leaders are running out of patience with divisions among Senate Republicans over how to craft a budget resolution and released a statement Monday morning calling for the Senate to take up and immediately pass the resolution it passed Feb. 25.
Trump Repeals Biden-Era Clean Energy Manufacturing Orders
Last week President Donald Trump repealed several Biden-era directives and memorandums meant to boost clean energy manufacturing via executive order. Five of former President Joe Biden’s memorandums which have been rescinded specifically focused on strengthening domestic and defense industrial bases for clean energy, including supply chains, solar manufacturing, electric heat pumps, platinum group metals, electrolyzers and fuel cells and insulation. Two of the memorandums focused on addressing the 2022 infant formula shortage and expanding biomanufacturing and research and development, while other rescinded Biden actions included broadening registered apprenticeships and expanding union jobs.
Biden used the Defense Production Act to implement the memorandums, a law that empowers a president to mandate companies ramp up the production of critical goods and services to support national defense. The mandate includes incentives to expand production, including loans and grants. For example, the Biden administration allocated $169 million for nine projects to expedite the manufacturing of electric heat pumps in November 2023. As for the repeal of Biden-era orders on jobs and apprenticeships, it aligns with Trump’s decree to eliminate diversity, equity and inclusion initiatives in the federal government as well as the public and private sectors. Biden’s orders included creating opportunities specifically for underserved communities.
Read more at Manufacturing Dive
Trade War Explodes Across World at Pace Not Seen in Decades
Barriers to open trade are rising across the world at a pace unseen in decades, a cascade of protectionism that harks back to the isolationist fervor that swept the globe in the 1930s and worsened the Great Depression. It isn’t just President Trump’s extensive new tariffs, which have set off a barrage of retaliatory measures across Europe, China and Canada targeting hundreds of U.S. goods.
Even before Trump retook the White House, many countries were increasing trade barriers, often against China, as they tried to beat back a flood of electric cars, steel and other manufactured goods pressuring their homegrown industries. Now those efforts are proliferating as countries brace for a new wave of goods redirected across the globe by the U.S.’s rising tariff shield. The European Union said this month it plans to toughen measures to protect its steel and aluminum producers from imports diverted from the U.S. by Trump’s 25% tariffs on those two metals. Economists and historians say the flurry of recent moves suggest the world could be heading toward the largest, broadest surge in protectionist activity since the U.S. Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 touched off a global retreat behind tariff walls that lasted until after World War II.
Trump’s First 100 Days
- Legal Advocates Concerned About New Trump Policy Targeting Attorneys, Law Firms And Lawsuits –NY State Of Politics
- Trump Is Dismantling the Education Department—With or Without Congress - WSJ
- GOP-Led States Push For Unfettered School Aid As Trump Promises A Smaller Federal Role In Education - AP
- 5 Revelations From The Trump Administration’s War Plan Texts - Politico
- How Secure Is Signal? Cyber Experts Weigh In On Trump Administration’s Use Of The Encrypted App For War Planning - Politico
- Trump Defends National Security Adviser After Signal Chat With Journalist – The Hill
- Columbia’s President Faces Angry Faculty in Closed-Door Meetings - WSJ
- Tesla Protests And Vandalism Surge: FBI Creates Task Force To Investigate And Says Most Vandals Are ‘Lone Offenders’ - Forbes
- Trade Of Venezuelan Oil To China Stalls After New Trump Order - Reuters
- ‘Borrowers Have Zero Power:’ Trump Moving Student Loans To SBA Sparks Concern, Confusion – The Hill
- Mike Huckabee, Trump’s Pick To Be Israel Ambassador, Faces Senators As War In Gaza Restarts - AP
- Carney Says Canada's Lockheed Martin Fighter Contract Could Be Adjusted - Reuters
- The Trump Tracker, Stay Up To Date on the First 100 Days – WSJ
Health and Wellness
Following its Bankruptcy - 23andMe Users Are Being Urged To Delete Their Data. Here’s How To Do It
Whether in search of relatives, a family’s country of origin, or to understand personal disease risk, 15 million people have shared their DNA with 23andMe since the genetic test site launched in 2006. But now those who gave their saliva in exchange for genetic information and family history are being urged by California Attorney General Rob Bonta to request that the Sunnyvale-based company delete their data and destroy any samples of their genetic material.
That followed news on Sunday that the biotech company once valued at $6 billion had started voluntary Chapter 11 proceedings in the US Bankruptcy Court for the Eastern District of Missouri—and that CEO Anne Wojcicki had resigned from her role effective immediately. “Customers always have the option to delete their account at any time, and can elect to do so from their account settings,” a company spokesperson told Fortune. “Once we confirm the request, we will immediately and automatically begin the deletion process.”
Industry News
The "Great Stay" Is Here: Worker Turnover Drops To 18%
The average turnover rate for employers sank to 18% in 2024, according to a survey of 3,595 corporate officials, primarily in North America, by Payscale, a provider of compensation management services and software. It represented a rather pronounced shift over a short period of time. The turnover rate was 26% in both 2022 and 2023, a record high in the 16 years Payscale has been conducting its annual report on compensation best practices. The report said the newer environment features “historically low hires and separations.”
Employees were particularly unlikely to leave their jobs when it was their own decision. The average voluntary turnover rate plummeted to 13%, according to the survey, which was conducted in November and December. That was down from 21% in 2023 and 26% in 2022. While that was good news for companies, which generally prefer to keep turnover down, there can be a downside on the hiring front. The sluggish labor market dynamics “created a challenging experience for recruiters and job seekers, especially for knowledge-worker positions,” the report said.
Manufacturing Leads Euro Zone PMI To Seven-Month High In March
Euro zone business activity grew at its fastest pace in seven months in March, supported by an easing in the long-running manufacturing downturn despite slower growth in services, a survey showed. The improving business climate in the common currency bloc could gain more traction over the coming months as plans for a spending splurge in infrastructure and defence, particularly in Germany, raise optimism for a turnaround in Europe's economic fortunes.
HCOB's preliminary composite euro zone Purchasing Managers' Index, compiled by S&P Global, rose to 50.4 this month from February's 50.2, its highest since August. It has remained above the 50 mark separating growth from contraction since the start of this year. Growth in activity was still meagre, however, and the index was below a prediction in a Reuters poll for a rise to 50.8. An index measuring the bloc's dominant services industry declined to 50.4 from last month's 50.6, below the Reuters poll forecast of 51.0.
Boeing Wants To Resolve Its Biggest Legal Problem
Boeing wants President Trump to let it out of a guilty criminal plea agreement the jet maker reached with the Biden administration, according to a report. The Wall Street Journal reported Monday that Boeing is asking Trump's new Justice Department officials to allow it to withdraw that 2024 plea, in which it admitted that its workers conspired to defraud aviation regulators.
Avoiding a criminal conviction would be a major victory for the company that could allow it to avoid compounded headwinds as it tries to show progress on several fronts more than one year after a door plug blew off a Boeing-made Alaska Airlines 737 Max 9 jet. Criminal convictions can foreclose or suspend a company's right to contract with the federal government and frustrate its ability to secure loans, according to Eddie Jauregui, a white-collar defense attorney with Holland & Knight and former federal prosecutor.
Retailers Bulk Up Inventories to Blunt Tariff Impact
Retailers selling merchandise from kitchenware to sneakers are stockpiling goods in an attempt to blunt the impact of the Trump administration’s new tariffs on their bottom lines. Companies from large retailers such as warehouse chain Costco Wholesale to specialty merchants such as home-goods retailer Williams-Sonoma and apparel seller Zumiez say they are holding more inventory after placing unusually big orders to beat Trump’s new tariffs. The strategy is a hedge against the costs of increased tariffs, but logistics experts say it opens up retailers to the risk of getting stuck with piles of unsold goods as consumer spending slows.
The tactic represents another shift in retailers’ yearslong battle to perfect their inventory-management strategy after the pandemic, when stock levels whipsawed from product shortages to overstocks. Many companies had moved toward managing inventories on a just-in-time basis over the past year and a half to avoid getting stuck with goods shoppers didn’t want. Some are now switching instead to a just-in-case strategy and keeping extra stock on hand.
Boeing Gets Lifeline in Pentagon Deal to Build Most Expensive Jet Fighter Ever
The U.S. is entrusting its most expensive jet-fighter program in history to a company that hasn’t successfully launched a commercial or military aircraft in a decade. Boeing was selected last week by the Pentagon to build the Air Force’s next-generation manned jet fighter, beating out Lockheed Martin in a move that surprised Wall Street and left Lockheed disappointed. The new manned fighter, dubbed the F-47, is designed to fight with semiautonomous drones and will have new stealth and long-range strike capabilities. It is the type of sophisticated air-to-air warplane the Air Force says is vital to deterring China’s military in the decades ahead.
The Pentagon’s decision couldn’t come at a more crucial time for Boeing, which is trying to pull itself out of a nose dive after a series of safety problems with its 737 MAX jet, a crippling strike and six straight annual losses. Not only did Boeing lock down a contract that could top $50 billion, the deal also is structured to guarantee a profit through the development stage of the project—something Boeing sorely needs. Boeing’s defense business represents around one-third of the company’s revenue but has lost billions of dollars over the past several years, while Boeing says it has been locked into money-losing Pentagon contracts.
Boeing Lands Multi-Billion-Dollar 737 MAX Order
The holding company for Malaysia Airlines has committed to buy 30 new 737 MAX aircraft, with options to double that number. Boeing noted that the order had been in place since January, but the buyer had not been identified then. Neither Boeing nor Malaysia Aviation Group reported the value of the order – consisting of 18 737 MAX 8 and 12 737 MAX 10 jets – but it could total $3.8 billion based on listed prices for Boeing’s single-aisle aircraft.
Boeing projects aircraft demand in the Southeast Asian region to more than triple over the coming two decades, with nearly 80% of the 4,700 new aircraft to be ordered being narrow-body jets like the 737 MAX. "This is a significant investment for Malaysia Aviation Group, enabling us to deliver cutting-edge premium cabin offerings and state-of-the-art technology to our customers," stated managing director Izham Ismail. "The addition of these new airplanes will not only enhance our fleet's efficiency and increase seating capacity, but allow us to elevate the overall inflight experience, with our passengers' needs at the forefront."
Read more at American Machinist
Chinese EV Giant BYD Outpaces Tesla With Annual Sales Of More Than $100 Billion
Chinese automaker BYD reported annual revenue of 777 billion yuan ($107 billion) for 2024, leapfrogging U.S. rival Tesla as competition between the two electric vehicle rivals heats up. In a filing published Monday, BYD posted a 29% increase in revenue from the previous year, bolstered by sales of its hybrid vehicles. This figure exceeded the $97.7 billion annual revenue reported by Elon Musk’s Tesla.
Wang Chuanfu, chairman and president of BYD, hailed the firm’s “rapid development” in 2024, noting the company became the first automaker globally to reach the milestone of rolling out 10 million new energy vehicles in November. “BYD has become an industry leader in every sector from batteries, electronics to new energy vehicles, breaking the dominance of foreign brands and reshaping the new landscape of the global market,” Wang said in a statement.
Intel's New CEO Might Have The Last Best Chance To Turn Around The Company — Here's How He Could Do It
While it's unclear whether Intel's financial problems can be fixed quickly, Wall Street analysts — and current and former employees — generally agree on what steps CEO Lip-Bu Tan needs to take, short of a breakup. Those steps include everything from cutting jobs to turbocharging Intel's young foundry business. A semiconductor industry veteran, Tan was appointed to his new role on March 12. Investors applauded the news: Intel stock rose more than 15% the next day. Here's what company sources and Wall Street analysts said he has to do to to avoid a break up.
- More business to the foundry - Intel is one of the few remaining chipmakers that both designs and makes its own chips.
- Be patient and 'learn from deploying' - Per Reuters, Tan is looking to boost Intel's AI chip efforts to rival Nvidia and others.
- Revitalize 'Team Blue'? Former and current Intel employees describe the company, whose staffers refer to themselves as "Team Blue," as slow and bureaucratic. Past high-level executives said the chipmaker's new CEO will need to shake up company culture and cut middle management.
Deere Dissects FTC’s Right-To-Repair Lawsuit, Denies Wrongdoing
The issue over equipment repair practices has been building for years, with technological advancements that companies say are designed to make consumers’ lives easier actually creating headaches for those looking to fix their cars, tractors or smartphones. As more proprietary technologies and software become embedded in equipment, manufacturers are placing more restrictions on where repairs can be made. In the case of Deere, the company has made it so only authorized dealers have the service tools to fully repair the onboard central computers on its tractors.
In Deere’s answer to the lawsuit, filed March 17, the company denied that its business practices are “unlawful or that it has violated any law.” Attorneys admitted that it developed a proprietary service tool for its tractors, but denied that other options were functionally inferior. Attorneys general from Illinois and other states have urged Congress to pass bills addressing so-called right-to-repair issues, but lawmakers’ efforts have yet to make it out of committee hearings. In 2023, Colorado became the first state to enact a “right to repair” law specifically for farmers.
Read more at Manufacturing Dive