Member Briefing May 4, 2026

Posted By: Harold King Daily Briefing,

ISM Manufacturing PMI: Expansion Continues In April

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 52.7 in April, unchanged from March and marking the fastest expansion for the index since August 2022. The latest reading was lower than the 53.1 forecast and is the index's fourth straight month in expansion territory. Growth across industries remained broad, with 13 of 18 manufacturing sectors reporting expansion, the same as in March. Roughly 19% of manufacturing GDP was still in contraction (up from 16% in March), though this remains much improved from late 2025 levels.

  • New orders picked up by 0.6 points to 54.1 in April, while production eased by 1.7 points to 53.4, leaving both components still comfortably above the 50-point expansion threshold.
  • The employment index fell deeper into contractionary territory (down 2.3 points to 46.4), reflecting a continued soft hiring backdrop.
  • Trade-related indicators weakened. Exports fell further into contractionary territory (down 2.0 points to 47.9), while imports slowed to near-stagnation (down 2.3 points to 50.3, still just above no change levels).
  • Price pressures escalated sharply last month. The prices-paid index surged 6.3 points to 84.6 – its highest reading since April 2022, up more than 25 points over the last three months. The supplier deliveries index also rose to 60.6 (up 1.7 points) – also its highest level since mid-2022 – indicating increasingly slower deliveries amid intensifying supply chain strains.
  • Survey commentary remained largely downbeat. Roughly two-thirds of respondents’ comments were negative (69%, similar to March), with nearly half of all comments mentioning the war in the Middle East and about one-fifth citing tariffs.

Read more at TD Bank

US Economy Grows Solid 2%, Boosted by Surging AI Investment

The US economy picked up steam in the beginning of the year. Gross domestic product, which measures all the goods and services produced in the economy, registered a 2% annualized rate in the January-through-March period, the Commerce Department said Thursday, up sharply from the fourth quarter’s 0.5%. That was slightly lower than the 2.3% rate economists projected in a poll by data firm FactSet. GDP is adjusted for seasonal swings and inflation.

Growth in the first quarter was boosted by resilient consumer spending, a massive uptick in business investment, higher exports (which contribute to GDP), and government outlays that came back online after the longest government shutdown on record in the prior quarter. Meanwhile, real final sales to private domestic purchasers — referred to as “core GDP” and often seen as a good indicator for where the economy is headed — posted an annualized rate of 2.5% in the first quarter, up from the prior quarter’s 1.8%.

Read More at CNN Business

PCE = 3.5% - Fed’s Key Inflation Gauge Hits Near 2 Year High As Iran War Pushes Up Gas Prices

Fast-rising gas prices lifted the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge to 3.5% in March, its highest rate in almost three years, new data showed Thursday. The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index rose 0.7% from February, a faster-than-expected acceleration from the previous monthly pace of 0.4%, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The annual rate of inflation, which jumped from 2.8% in February, is now running at its fastest pace since May 2023.

  • When excluding food and energy costs, prices rose 0.3% from the month before (a slight downshift from the 0.4% monthly gain notched in February) and increased 3.2% on an annual basis. That’s in line with what economists were expecting; however, the annual rate did move up from 3%.
  • Consumer spending jumped 0.9% from February, but when taking inflation into account, it rose just 0.2%.
  • The dollars consumers put in their gas tanks and toward other energy goods accounted for 42% of the month’s spending change, Commerce Department data shows.
  • Households’ personal and disposable (after-tax) income both rose at 0.6% paces in March; however, when accounting for inflation, disposable income dropped by 0.1%, the second consecutive monthly decline.
  • The personal saving rate fell for the second month in a row as well, dropping to 3.6% from 3.9% and landing at the lowest rate in four years.

Read more at CNBC

Iran and the Middle East

Ukraine

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U.S. Debt Tops 100% of GDP

The U.S. national debt now exceeds 100% of gross domestic product, crossing a once-unthinkable threshold, on the way toward breaking the record set in the wake of World War II. As of March 31, the country’s publicly held debt was $31.265 trillion, while GDP over the preceding year was $31.216 trillion, according to data released Thursday. That puts the ratio at 100.2%, compared with 99.5% when the last fiscal year ended Sept. 30. That figure will likely climb for the foreseeable future because the federal government is running historically large annual deficits of nearly 6% of GDP, which add to the debt.

The government is spending $1.33 for every dollar it collects in revenue, and the budget deficit this year is projected at $1.9 trillion. That is little changed from 2025 as Republicans’ tax cuts kick in before their spending cuts take effect. The final tally will depend on Iran war spending, tariff refunds and the strength of the economy. The debt-to-GDP ratio is economists’ preferred metric for how much the country’s borrowing weighs on the economy. As it rises, debt consumes resources that could be used more productively elsewhere. The government also becomes more sensitive to interest rates as debt grows. One in seven dollars of federal spending now goes to interest. A 0.1 percentage-point interest-rate increase would cost $379 billion over 10 years, according to the Congressional Budget Office.

Read more at The WSJ

Hochul Says Budget Deal Could Come Next Week As Talks Drag On

Gov. Kathy Hochul updated reporters on the status of state budget negotiations Friday during her annual visit to the LCA pressroom on the third floor of the state Capitol, which traditionally comes as budget negotiations are somewhere in the vicinity of a handshake deal. Hochul said she is hopeful that once lawmakers return to Albany and conference what she and legislative leaders discuss early next week, a deal could come within the following week. She said staff would continue to work “day and night” through the weekend.

Hochul notably did not definitively rule out expanding the pied-à-terre tax to upstate municipalities on an opt-in basis, a push that State Sen. Pat Fahy has undertaken to help address the fiscal woes of cities outside of the Big Apple. Fahy has taken advantage of the late budget to gain support for the plan, but it has faced obstacles, including Hochul’s resistance to additional taxes and questions over how much money it could generate. “This was an objective to help the city out with this particular crisis,” she said of the New York City proposal. “We haven’t had time to talk about those other areas. I’m not looking to add a whole lot more to this budget — the objective is to be closing it down. I would have to take a look at it.”

Read More at NY State of Politics

Trump Signs Bill Ending Record Shutdown

The record-long shutdown at the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) came to an end Thursday after President Trump signed a bill to fund most of the agencies. The bipartisan agreement comes after months of negotiations between Democrats and Republicans in Congress, stretching the lapse in funding to 76 days. The House approved the funding package by a voice vote earlier Thursday, a month after the Senate advanced the measure.

The bill provides funding for 20 of DHS’s agencies, including the Transportation Security Agency (TSA), Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), U.S. Coast Guard and U.S. Secret Service, through the end of the fiscal year. ICE and Border Patrol are the only two agencies under DHS not to receive funding in this bill. House Republicans are currently working to enact tens of billions of dollars to fund these agencies for the next three years through a reconciliation process, which would bypass the Senate’s filibuster requirement.

Read more at The Hill

More Policy and Politics Headlines

Science Is Finally Making Real Progress In Treating Allergies

Every spring, millions of allergy sufferers fall into the same familiar routine of checking pollen counts, bracing for congestion, and reaching for medications that promise relief.  But their options are expanding like never before as a wave of new research and therapies are “moving beyond a ‘one-size-fits-all’ approach,” says DeVon Preston, an allergist at Cleveland Clinic—shifting care away from simply treating symptoms toward changing how the body responds to allergens in the first place.  And “there are even more exciting therapies in the pipeline,” adds Scott Sicherer, director of the Jaffe Food Allergy Institute at the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai.

Some of the biggest changes are happening in food allergy care where treatment has historically meant strict avoidance and being prepared for emergencies. But newer therapies aim to build tolerance instead. At its core, an allergic reaction is a case of mistaken identity, as the immune system flags as dangerous something usually recognized as harmless, such as pollen, pet dander, or a food protein. When this happens, allergens trigger inflammation and symptoms such as sneezing, itching, congestion, or swelling. Researchers are also exploring mRNA-based allergy vaccines—an approach that could one day reprogram the immune system to tolerate allergens before symptoms even begin.

Read more at National Geographic

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Trade Wars

NYS and Hudson Valley Manufacturing Employment Drop in 2025

Manufacturing Employment fell in both the Hudson Valley and the State last year according to data released by the NYS Department of Labor. In the Valley employment in the sector fell by 300 to 41,000, or 0.6% in December. Statewide employment fell by 1.8%, or 7,100 to 405,200. Nationally manufacturing employment fell by 0.6% or 73,000 to 12,711,000. The data was delayed due to the government shutdown last year.

According to preliminary seasonally adjusted figures released today by the New York State Department of Labor, the number of private sector jobs in New York State increased over the month by 16,000, or 0.2%, to 8,517,000 in December 2025. New York State's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increased from 4.5% in November to 4.6% in December 2025. At the same time, New York State's labor force (seasonally adjusted) increased by 43,700. The statewide labor force participation rate increased from 61.2% in November to 61.5% in December 2025. The Hudson Valley's private sector job count grew by 1,900, or 0.2 percent, to 847,400 in the year ending December 2025. The largest gains were in private education and health services (+6,600) and professional and business services (+1,900). Job losses were centered in mining, logging and construction (-2,300), trade, transportation and utilities (-1,800), other services (-1,200), leisure and hospitality (-1,000), information (-500) and manufacturing (-300). 

Read the labor market profile

Key Earnings Reports

Samsung Electronics on Thursday reported record ​quarterly profit driven by a 49-fold jump in chip income, saying it expects a severe supply shortage to deepen next year as clients spend on ‌AI, driving up prices of its memory chips. Samsung said January-March operating profit in its cash cow ​chip division reached a record 53.7 trillion won ($36.15 billion) from just 1.1 trillion won in the same period a year earlier. That made up 94% of the quarter's 57.2 trillion won record total. That figure matched Samsung's estimate announced earlier this month and compared to 6.69 trillion won a year prior. Overall revenue rose 69% on year to 133.9 trillion won. Reuters

Eli Lilly on Thursday reported first-quarter earnings and revenue that blew past estimates and hiked its full-year sales outlook by $2 billion, as demand for its blockbuster weight loss drug Zepbound and diabetes treatment Mounjaro spiked again. Earnings per share were $8.55 and revenue was $19.80 billion. The pharmaceutical giant now expects 2026 revenue to come in between $82 billion and $85 billion, up from previous guidance of $80 billion to $83 billion. Lilly also projects its full-year adjusted profit to be between $35.50 to $37 per share. That compares with a previous outlook of $33.50 to $35 per share. CNBC

Caterpillar raised its annual revenue forecast after beating expectations for quarterly profit, as its power equipment business benefited from an AI ⁠infrastructure boom, while higher sales to dealers helped its construction unit. The company, seen ​as a bellwether ​for the global ​industrial economy, also trimmed its projection of a tariff hit to a range of $2.2 billion to $2.4 billion for the year from $2.6 billion. Adjusted profit per share ‌rose to $5.54 in the January-March period, compared with $4.25 ‌a year earlier, beating analysts’ expectations. Revenue grew 22% to $17.42 billion. Revenue from ⁠its core construction segment jumped 38%, while the power and ⁠energy segment revenue was up 22%. CNBC

Stellantis nearly tripled in first-quarter adjusted operating income, helped by U.S. tariff refunds. Industrial free cash flow ​was more than 1.9 billion euros ($2.2 billion) negative in the quarter, still an improvement from a cash burn of more ​than 3 billion euros a year earlier. Adjusted EBIT in Stellantis' key North American market, which came in at ​263 million euros, would have ​been negative without tariff refunds. – Yahoo Finance

Clorox cut its annual profit forecast on Thursday, hurt by weaker demand for its cleaning ​products. Higher energy, fuel and freight costs tied to the Iran war are pushing consumers to cut back on discretionary ​spending, including on branded floor cleaners and disinfectant ​sprays, stoking concerns about margin pressure for consumer ⁠goods makers like Clorox. The company now expects annual adjusted ​earnings per share between $5.45 and $5.65, down from its prior forecast ​of $5.95 to $6.30. Reuters

Apple reported earnings and revenue for its fiscal second quarter that topped analysts’ estimates, driven by growth in the company’s services business. Sales for iPhones missed estimates for the second time in three quarters, the only significant number that came up short of expectations in Thursday’s report. Earnings per share were $2.01 and revenue was $111.18. CNBC

Regeneron Becomes Final Major Pharmaceutical Company To Join Trump's MFN Initiative

Regeneron will provide Otarmeni — a new gene therapy for an ultra-rare form of genetic hearing loss recently approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration — for free under a new agreement with the U.S. government. Plans also call for the pharmaceutical company to lower Medicaid prices based on those in other developed countries. According to a statement from The White House, the agreement "ensures foreign nations can no longer use price controls to freeride on American innovation by guaranteeing MFN prices on all new innovative medicines Regeneron brings to market." Regeneron also will utilize the TrumpRX.gov platform to allow eligible patients to directly purchase Praluent, the company' PCSK9 inhibitor medicine, at the most-favored nation price.

"For more than a decade, we have argued that the most direct path to meaningful relief for American patients depends on getting other high-income countries to finally contribute their fair share to the cost of the breakthroughs they rely on just as much as we do," Leonard Schleifer, Regeneron's co-chair, president, and chief executive officer said.. "We hope [this] agreement, coupled with effective trade policy, will lead to closer equilibration of prices around the globe while preserving innovation and lowering prices for Americans."

Read more at Benefits Pro

Novartis Rounds Out $23B US Investment Push With Plans For North Carolina API Plant

Novartis will construct a new active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) facility in Morrisville, North Carolina, the company said on Thursday.  The 56,200 square-foot plant will manufacture ingredients for solid-dose tablets, capsules and RNA therapeutics, marking the 7th and final facility the company will build in the United States as part of the investment plan revealed last April. In addition to its build-up in North Carolina, Novartis has revealed plans to construct radioligand therapy (RLT) production facilities in Denton, Texas, and Winter Park, Florida. Six months ago, Novartis opened a new RLT manufacturing site in Carlsbad, California.

Additionally, the company is expanding RLT facilities in Indiana and New Jersey to support the growing demand for cancer treatments. Two months ago, Novartis also began construction of a biomedical research center in San Diego, which will give the company R&D sites on both coasts, adding to its outpost in Cambridge, Massachusetts. The new facility will add to the Swiss company’s growing production presence in the Tar Heel State, too. In November, Novartis detailed plans to establish a “flagship manufacturing hub” in the state’s Research Triangle area, which will include a solid-dose packaging facility in Morrisville. Novartis broke ground at the site five months ago. The new API plant in Morrisville is expected to enable end-to-end production for all of Novartis' advanced technology platforms in the U.S. for the first time in the company's history.

Read more at Fierce Pharma

Turner Industries To Build Nuclear Reactor Parts In Louisiana

Turner Industries and the State of Louisiana announced April 28 that Turner would build two new nuclear fabrication plants in New Iberia and Port Allen, Louisiana. The factories will produce nuclear-grade piping and high-precision instrumentation for use in future nuclear power plant production. The move is part of Louisiana’s push to establish itself as a new hub for nuclear power production, a plan the state calls its Nuclear Strategic Framework, which envisions a new network of Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) and other new nuclear reactor models.

Turner’s factory will reportedly focus on modular assembly components for building nuclear plants components in controlled environment before shipping them to project sites for final assembly. Turner Industries was founded in Baton Rouge, Louisiana in 1961 and maintains its headquarters there. The company’s existing Port Allen location hosts its Pipe Fabrication Division, and its New Iberia facility features deepwater access for efficient transportation.

Read more at Plant Services

Textron to Separate Industrial Arm in Shift to Aerospace Focus

Textron TXT -0.33%decrease; red down pointing triangle plans to separate its industrial segment and focus on its core aerospace business. The Providence, R.I., company said Thursday it will explore options for the industrial unit, including a potential sale or tax-free spinoff into a publicly traded company. The separation is meant to allow Textron to focus on growing its aerospace and defense business, anchored by its Cessna and Beechcraft aviation brands, as well as its rotorcraft brand Bell.

The industrial business is composed of the plastic fuel systems brand Kautex and Textron’s specialized vehicles maker. Textron aims to complete the separation within 12 to 18 months, it said. It will continue to operate the industrial segment during that time. Textron separately posted a profit of $220 million, or $1.25 a share, in the first quarter, compared with $207 million, or $1.13 a share, the year before. Sales rose 12% to $3.70 billion. Within industrial, quarterly revenue was down 1% to $786 million.

Read more at The WSJ

US Steel To Invest $1.9B In A ‘First-Of-Its-Kind’ Direct Reduced Iron Plant

U.S. Steel will invest $1.9 billion to build a direct reduced iron plant at its Big River Steel Works location in Osceola, Arkansas, the company said Wednesday. The investment allows U.S. Steel to vertically integrate DRI production, eliminating the need to ship raw materials to the facility and creating a “competitive sourcing advantage” for Big River’s feedstock, according to a news release. The project is estimated to create 200 direct jobs and 35 contractor roles, as well as support 2,000 construction jobs. No construction timeline was disclosed.

U.S. Steel said in a statement that its latest project will create a “direct link” to its Minnesota Ore Operations, where the Ketac Plant can produce DRI-grade iron ore pellets. The plant opened in 2024 as part of a $150 million expansion. The company said these recent additions will advance and enhance its domestic supply chain. The company’s new DRI plant will include a furnace, reformer and heat recovery facilities, as well as industrial gas compressors, a main control room and water system, according to an overview provided by U.S. Steel.

Read More at Manufacturing Dive

Embraer’s Praetor 600E Achieves Triple Certification From ANAC, FAA And EASA

Embraer’s next-generation Praetor 600E executive jet has earned certifications from three different aviation authorities: Brazil’s Civil Aviation Authority (ANAC—Agência Nacional de Aviação Civil), the FAA (Federal Aviation Administration) and EASA (European Union Aviation Safety Agency). The aircraft manufacturer’s other new executive jet, the Praetor 500E, is expected to receive triple certification by the end of 2026. Embraer says this milestone confirms the Praetor 600E’s readiness for global operations, and the aircraft meeting strict safety and performance requirements while introducing a new era of cabin experience.

The super-midsize jet can fly 4,018 nautical miles (7,441 km) with four passengers on board and with NBAA IFR reserves, the Praetor 600E enables non-stop missions between major city pairs such as London–New York and São Paulo–Miami. The aircraft features a completely reimagined cabin with all-new Embraer-designed seating, an advanced cabin management system and next-generation technology that the company says elevates comfort, productivity and connectivity. The Embraer-exclusive 42‑inch, 4K OLED touchscreen Smart Window is an optional feature delivering a new level of functionality and immersion. Video conferencing, high-resolution content streaming and real-time external views via three externally mounted cameras are all offered through the technology. There is also an option to configure a divan across from the Smart Window.

Read more at Inflight

Wyoming Celebrates 'Nuclear Renaissance' As Feds Approve License For A New Reactor

"We're building an advanced nuclear plant but so many aspects of the plant and of the business are the same as the sixty-year-old coal plant that's down the road," says Chris Levesque, Terra Power's CEO, as he gestures to the west where the old Naughton plant stands. The Washington state-based Terra Power, founded by Bill Gates, says this will be the first of many, part of a new nuclear renaissance they want to bring to long time energy exporting states like Wyoming. Levesque says the company's "advanced reactor" technology makes nuclear plants safer and quicker to build.

"There is a whole different story to begin with, is communities vying for a nuclear power plant," Levesque says. "The old story on nuclear was more of a 'not in my backyard thing.'" Levesque, who came to Terra Power after a career in the legacy nuclear industry, thinks new technologies and demand for low emission power is changing this. Almost everything here will be buried underground and they'll use liquid sodium metal instead of water to cool the reactor. If all goes to plan and the plant is online by 2031, Terra Power says it will make enough electricity for a utility to power almost half a million homes - likely in nearby Salt Lake City. The company has also inked agreements with META for several more reactors to power the tech company's data centers specifically.

Read more at NPR

Daily Market Update May 01, 2026

The June ’26 natural gas contract is trading up $0.03 at $2.79. The June ‘26 crude oil contract is down $1.33 at $103.74. 

Read more at NRG

Learn more about the Council of Industry Energy Buying Group

Quote of the Day

"Fear is the path to the dark side. Fear leads to anger. Anger leads to hate. Hate leads to suffering"

George Lucas - American Filmaker, spoken by his character Yoda in Star Wars: The Phantom Menace Today is May the Fourth, Star Wars Day.

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