Member Briefing April 29,2026

Posted By: Harold King Daily Briefing,

Fed Likely To Hold Rates Steady As Powell Prepares For Possible Swan Song

Federal Reserve policymakers will gather in Washington this week in what may be Jerome Powell's last meeting as head of the U.S. central bank, with energy prices still elevated and the Iran war at a standstill and likely to prolong uncertainty about the economic and monetary policy outlook. Powell’s Successor, Kevin Warsh, is likely to be confirmed by the Senate as soon as next week. As a final act, Powell ‌will likely oversee on today another vote by the central bank's policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee to hold its benchmark overnight interest rate steady in the 3.50%-3.75% range, where it has been since December.

Powell's press conference afterwards could settle key matters, including whether policymakers will nod to the potential for rate hikes later this year if inflation accelerates. Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, have risen about 50% since the start of the war. The resulting surge in ​gasoline and energy prices last month helped propel the U.S. Consumer Price Index to its biggest increase in nearly four years. While expected to hold interest rates steady, U.S. central bankers will have to decide if it's time to nod to the possibility of hiking borrowing costs if ‌inflation continues to ⁠accelerate. The prospect of rate cuts, at least, has dwindled, with bond markets positioned for the Fed's policy rate to remain where it is through at least the middle of 2027.

Read More at Reuters

Pending Home Sales Rose in March

Pending home sales increased 1.5% in March over the month but decreased 1.1% over the year, with two regions experiencing gains and two regions experiencing declines from February. The Pending Home Sales Index, which predicts home sales through contract signings, rose to 73.7 in March, up from 72.6 in February. Breaking it down by region, the Northeast advanced 4.4% over the month but fell 6.5% over the year. The Midwest moved down 1.3% over the month and 3.1% over the year. Meanwhile, the South increased 3.9% month-over-month and 2.3% year-over-year. The West fell 2.6% over the month and 1.7% from March 2025.

Pent-up housing demand drove gains in contract signings in March despite higher mortgage rates. Furthermore, greater housing supply could translate into continued growth going forward. That said, first-time buyers remain most sensitive to high mortgage rates, so an increase in the supply of more affordable homes is more likely to spur increased home sale growth rather than an increase in the supply of larger, more expensive homes.

Read more at the National Association of Realtors

Tariffs Drive Steel Giant Nucor Q1 Earnings Higher

U.S. steel companies are starting to see a bump in earnings as the Trump administration’s tariffs prevent steel imports from flooding U.S. markets and driving down prices. Nucor Corp., the largest U.S. steel producer and a recycler of ferrous metals, reported first quarter earnings that beat Wall Street estimates as tariffs on imports began to renew domestic demand. The Charlotte-based company generated net sales of $9.5 billion in the quarter, up from $7.7 billion the previous quarter and $7.8 billion a year ago. The increase was driven largely by higher sales pricing and volumes across its three main segments. Nucor posted net earnings of $743 million, or $3.23 per share, more than double what it made the previous quarter. The steel producer also beat its own revised earnings guidance provided in March.

Nucor’s steel mill shipments totaled 7 million tons in the quarter, up 19% from the previous quarter and 9% from a year ago. The growth came mostly from external customers, who accounted for a 22% increase in sales tonnage from the previous quarter. At the same time, the average sales price for external customers was $1,074 per ton. This was up 14% from a year ago and 5% from the previous quarter. Nucor’s steel mills segment saw double-digit tonnage growth compared to the previous quarter across its four main product categories: sheet, 21%; bars, 15%; structural 24%; and plate, 17%.

Read more at Manufacturing Dive

Iran and the Middle East

Ukraine

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New York Lawmakers Pass Seventh State Budget Extender That Runs Through April

The New York state Legislature on Monday passed a seventh state budget extender. The extender runs through Thursday and funds state operations, including payroll and public health programs. Lawmakers are expected to pass another extender this week. While the extender punted the deadline to buy time for policy discussions, those debates do appear to be making progress. “Once we’re finished with the policy items, then we have to start negotiating the dollars in those budgets. That’s going to take at least another week. We’re going to do another extender later this week to next week,” state Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie told reporters.

Sources say discussions around the governor’s desire to change the state’s 2019 emissions-reducing climate law have solidified in recent days. Under weeks of pressure from state lawmakers to consider an earlier date, an updated proposal would move that deadline to 2028 and establish an interim target to reduce emissions by 60% by 2040 while keeping the 2050 date intact. On auto insurance, legislative sources say movement late last week which centered around the governor dropping aspects of the proposal which deal with accidents in which multiple people are at fault, known as joint and several liability.

Read more at NY State of Politics

Johnson Says Senate-Passed DHS Funding Bill Will Have To Change

Speaker Mike Johnson said Monday that language in a Homeland Security funding bill the Senate passed unanimously near three weeks ago is “problematic” and will have to be changed to pass the House. The bill as written, Johnson said, would “orphan” funding for key immigration enforcement agencies including Immigration and Customs Enforcement. Passage of that measure is part of a two-track DHS funding approach that won President Donald Trump’s endorsement but has faced skepticism from some conservative hard-liners. The failure of the House and Senate GOP to align on a plan threatens to further delay the passage of DHS funding, even after Saturday’s attempted assassination at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner.

The language in question explicitly zeroes out funding for ICE and Customs and Border Protection, which are set to be funded in a second measure to be passed under the party-line budget reconciliation process. Stripping it out as the conservative are demanding would force the Senate to approve the bill a third time — and could potentially create objections from Democrats who have insisted on putting new restrictions on immigration enforcement.

Read More at The Hill

King Charles III Reaffirms U.K.-U.S. 'Special Relationship' In A Rare Address To Congress

ing Charles III on Tuesday reaffirmed the United Kingdom and the United States’ long “special” relationship, calling it a "story of reconciliation, renewal and remarkable partnership" born out of "bitter divisions of 250 years ago." In a rare speech to Congress, the king marked the landmark anniversary of America's independence from British rule, and he nodded to his late mother, Queen Elizabeth II, who addressed the Congress from under the same “watchful

l eye of the Statue of Freedom above us” 35 years ago.

Despite challenging times, the king said in his roughly 20-minute address that the U.K. and the U.S. can defend and reaffirm their long-standing shared democratic values to create security and prosperity for themselves and the world. Charles’ remarks included no direct references to the war in Iran, only noting that “we meet in times of great uncertainty; in times of conflict from Europe to the Middle East which pose immense challenges for the international community.” He added “The story of the United Kingdom and the United States is, at its heart, a story of reconciliation, renewal and remarkable partnership,” the king said. “From the bitter divisions of 250 years ago, we forged a friendship that has grown into one of the most consequential alliances in human history.”

Read more at NBC

More Policy and Politics Headlines

Pharma Bets A Little-Known Form Of Cholesterol Will Underpin Its Next Blockbuster Heart Drugs

Research indicates that about one in five people worldwide have high levels of Lipoprotein(a), or Lp(a), putting them at greater risk of a heart attack or stroke. Lipoprotein(a) is part protein and part fat — everyone has it circulating in their blood. Higher levels of Lp(a) can be dangerous because it's stickier than other types of cholesterol, which allows it to more easily attach to the walls of blood vessels.  If it builds up too much, it creates plaques that can block the flow of blood to organs like the heart and the brain. Too much plaque and the blood vessels could burst, leading to a heart attack or stroke. Lp(a) can also increase the risk of clots and promote inflammation, which increases the risk of plaques rupturing.

Novartis, Amgen and Eli Lilly are among the drugmakers betting that slashing levels of a particularly bad form of cholesterol could deliver the next blockbusters in cardiology. All three of the pharmaceutical giants are in late-stage trials to test whether drugs that cut Lp(a) can protect people from heart attacks. The three companies have already proven their experimental drugs slash levels of Lp(a) by more than 80%. Now, they will need to show that translates into tangible benefits. If that happens, the drugs could reach annual sales of $5.6 billion by 2032, according to consensus estimates from Evaluate, a pharmaceutical commercial intelligence firm.

Read more at CNBC

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Trade Wars

Oracle, CoreWeave Back OpenAI After Report Says ChatGPT Developer Missed Sales, User Targets

Oracle and CoreWeave  came out in support of OpenAI on Tuesday after the Wall Street Journal reported that the AI developer recently missed sales and user targets, renewing concerns about overspending in the sector. Shares of companies partnering with OpenAI sank after the report signaled that OpenAI’s business was slowing. Software giant Oracle and data center provider CoreWeave led the losses, down almost 4% and 5%, respectively.

Oracle defended the AI developer on X, writing, “We’re incredibly excited about our partnership with OpenAI and remain focused on building and delivering the capacity they need to support rapidly growing demand.” CoreWeave struck a similar tone in a statement to Yahoo Finance, but noted it had other partners. “OpenAI is a terrific partner, but not our only one,” a CoreWeave spokesperson said, adding that the company has an “expanding set of customers like Meta Platforms, Anthropic, Microsoft, Google, IBM, Perplexity AI, Jane Street, and many others.”

Read more at Yahoo Finance

Qualcomm To Partner With Openai To Develop Smartphone Processing Chips

Qualcomm reported that it’s partnering with OpenAI to create smartphone processing chips to advance the AI firm’s hardware ambitions. The U.S. smartphone chipmaker is set to work alongside Taiwanese semiconductor firm MediaTek to develop the chip for OpenAI, with Chinese manufacturer Luxshare  co-designing and building the device, Ming-Chi Kuo, an analyst at TF International Securities, said on X on Monday. Mass production of the device is expected in 2028, according to Kuo.

Qualcomm designs chips and wireless technology for smartphones and other devices, and is best known for its Snapdragon processors, which power many Android phones, and its modem technology that enables mobile connectivity like 4G and 5G. It likely comes as no surprise that OpenAI would partner with the firm to help realize its smartphone plans, after it acquired Apple’s design chief Jony Ive’s startup io for $6.4 billion in equity last year to design new AI devices expected to be revealed in two years.

Read more at CNBC

Iran War Disrupts The Circuit Board Supply Chain, Raises Costs For Tech Firms

The conflict in the Middle East has disrupted supplies of crucial raw materials and ‌pushed up prices of the printed circuit boards (PCB) used in almost all electronic devices, from smartphones and computers to AI servers, industry sources and executives said. The disruption is a fresh blow to electronics manufacturers which are already grappling with soaring memory chip costs and highlights the broadening impact of the ​Iran war that has wreaked havoc on supply chains, plastics, and oil supplies. PCB prices have been climbing since late last year, driven by a growing appetite for AI servers. Demand has been accelerating sharply since March as manufacturers scramble to secure raw material supplies and soften the impact of skyrocketing costs, three industry sources told Reuters.

Iran struck Saudi Arabia's Jubail petrochemical complex in early April, ​forcing a halt in production of high-purity polyphenylene ether (PPE) resin — a critical base material used to ⁠manufacture PCB laminates. SABIC, which accounts for approximately 70% of the world's high-purity PPE supply and operates in the Jubail complex on ​the Gulf coast, has been unable to resume output, severely tightening the availability of the material worldwide, according to one source. Shipping ​in and out of the Gulf has also been severely disrupted by the war.

Read more at Reuters

Pentagon Awards $370M for Future F-35 Engines

The Pentagon issued a further $369.8 million to Pratt & Whitney for further manufacturing activity with the F135 engine program, the propulsion system that powers the single-engine F-35 Joint Strike Fighter aircraft. The new award will fund development of engines for two forthcoming production rounds (Lots 20 and 21) of the F-35, and follows by less than a month the U.S. Navy’s $3.8-billion finalization of a contract for the current and ensuing production rounds.

The Lockheed Martin F-35 is currently in production Lot 18. Defense planners and F-35 program suppliers project the F-35 program to run for several decades into the future. The F135 is an afterburning turbofan engine for the F-35, which includes three aircraft models for different takeoff and landing requirements of the U.S. Air Force, U.S. Marine Corps, and U.S. Navy, and the defense forces of 19 F-35 program partner nations and other U.S. allies. Pratt & Whitney TR-3 engines enable the F-35 Block 4 update, which will implement improved sensor technologies, advanced electronic warfare capabilities, and increased weapons capacity for the fighter jets.

Read more at American Machinist

Eclipse Capital Raises $1.3B To Reshore Manufacturing, Strengthen Supply Chains

Eclipse Capital has raised $1.3 billion across two funds aimed at “reinventing” physical industries by supporting startups focused on physical artificial intelligence, robotics and other advanced technologies and innovations. The fundraising round — which includes $720 million in Eclipse Fund VI and $591 million in Early Growth Fund III — was led by “top-tier” university endowments and foundations, Eclipse partner Greg Reichow said in an interview. He declined to disclose specific names or industry affiliations.

Eclipse, based in Palo Alto, California, has led fundraising efforts for startups in manufacturing, sustainable energy, automation and more since it was founded in 2015. The latest funding round brings its total assets under management to $10 billion, the venture capital firm said. Recently, Eclipse has supported companies like autonomous aircraft maker Reliable Robotics and solar firm Tandem PV, as well as firms operating in the biopharmaceuticals and home construction sectors.

Read more at Manufacturing Dive

Coca-Cola Tops Estimates, Raises Earnings Outlook As Global Beverage Demand Rises

Coca-Cola on Tuesday reported quarterly earnings and revenue that topped analysts’ expectations, fueled by higher demand for its beverages. For the full year, Coke is now projecting comparable earnings per share growth of 8% to 9%, up from its prior forecast of 7% to 8%, thanks to lower effective tax rates. And despite uncertainty over the U.S.-Iran war and its ramifications for the broader economy, the company reiterated its previous outlook of organic revenue growth of 4% to 5%. The company’s adjusted net sales climbed 12% to $12.47 billion. Coke’s organic revenue, which strips out acquisitions, divestitures and currency, rose 10% in the quarter. Unit case volume increased 3% globally.

Across the portfolio, Coke’s water, sports, coffee and tea segment reported the strongest global growth. The division saw volume rise 5%, fueled by stronger demand for its tea and bottled water. The sparkling soft drinks division reported that volume increased 2%, fueled by a 13% jump for Coca-Cola Zero Sugar. The laggard of the portfolio this quarter was Coke’s juice, value-added dairy and plant-based beverage segment, which reported a volume decline of 1%. Growth in Fairlife and Santa Clara, a Mexican dairy brand, was not enough to offset the sale of the company’s finished product operations in Nigeria last year.

Read more at CNBC

GM Raises 2026 Guidance Amid $500 Million Tariff Refund

General Motors raised its 2026 guidance after significantly beating Wall Street’s first-quarter earnings expectations following a roughly $500 million benefit from the U.S. Supreme Court decision to terminate and refund certain levies paid under President Donald Trump’s tariffs. Earnings per share were $3.70 adjusted and revenue was $43.62 billion. GM’s International Emergency Economic Powers Act tariff benefit was largely expected by Wall Street analysts, but the exact amount it would receive was unknown. Without the tariff adjustment, the company’s first-quarter adjusted earnings would have still beat expectations and been up about 7.5% compared to a year ago. GM CEO Mary Barra in a letter to shareholders said the quarter surpassed the company’s expectations.

The Detroit automaker changed its 2026 guidance to include adjusted earnings before interest and taxes of between $13.5 billion and $15.5 billion, or $11.50 to $13.50 a share, up $500 million, or 50 cents per share, from its previous expectations; net income attributable to stockholders of $9.9 billion to $11.4 billion, up from $10.3 billion to $11.7 billion; and automotive operating cash flow between $16.8 billion and $20.8 billion, up from between $19 billion and $23 billion.

Read More at CNBC

Silver Refinery Leak Kills Two, Hospitalizes 19 In West Virginia

A chemical leak at a West Virginia silver recovery business on Wednesday killed two people and sent about 30 others to hospitals, including one in serious condition, authorities said. The leak occurred at the Catalyst Refiners plant in Institute as workers were preparing to shut down at least part of the facility, Kanawha County Commission Emergency Management Director C.W. Sigman said. “Starting or ending a chemical reaction are the most dangerous times,” Sigman said.

A chemical gas reaction occurred at the plant involving nitric acid and another substance, Sigman said at a news briefing. He added that there was “a violent reaction of the chemicals and it instantaneously overreacted.” The chemical reaction that was believed to have occurred during a cleaning process produced toxic hydrogen sulfide, Kanawha County Commission President Ben Salango said. Among the injured were seven ambulance workers responding to the leak, officials said. “We know that the first responders, they always run to the fire. They put themselves in harm’s way,” Gov. Patrick Morrisey said at an evening news conference. “We’re very grateful to these brave men and women and what they do.”

Read more at the AP

Another Summer, Another Decline In The Reliability Of NY’s Electric Grid

The amount of standby electric power that New York grid operators could call upon in a summer heat wave has shrunk to its smallest level in recent history, according to the New York Independent System Operator. The biggest demand for electricity in New York comes on the hottest days of summer. The NYISO plans to have enough generating capacity available to meet that peak demand, plus an operating reserve in case actual usage exceeds the forecast. Any resources beyond the operating reserve are known as the “reliability margin.” Think of it as insurance against blackouts during extreme conditions, such as a major heat wave.

This summer, the reliability margin is half what it was last year, NYISO official say. The grid has a reliability margin of 417 megawatts this summer, compared with 997 MW in 2025. The 2026 margin is more than five times less than the 2,227 MW available in 2019. The peak demand last summer reached 31,857 MW on June 24, the hottest day during the three-day heat wave. Absent extreme weather, this summer’s peak demand is forecasted to be 31,578 MW. If New York were to endure a three-day heat wave this summer, with statewide temperatures above 95 degrees, peak demand is likely to reach 33,343 MW, the NYISO forecasts. If temperatures climb to 98 degrees, the peak could hit 34,834 MW. At that point, the electric grid would have a reliability margin of negative 3,370 MW.

Read more at Syracuse.com

Daily Market Update Apr 28, 2026

The May ’26 natural gas contract is trading down $0.02 at $2.53. The June ‘26 crude oil contract is up $2.97 at $99.34. 

Read more at NRG

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Quote of the Day

"The enemy of the conventional wisdom is not ideas but the march of events."

John Kenneth Galbraith - Canadian Economist who died on this day in 2006.

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