Member Briefing November 24, 2025

Posted By: Harold King Daily Briefing,

Manufacturing Job Losses Mount Despite Stronger September Nonfarm Gains

The U.S. added more jobs than expected in September, but manufacturing employment declined for the fifth consecutive month, according to long-awaited employment data out today from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 119,000 in September, higher than forecast, while manufacturing jobs slipped by 6,000. Some more key data from the report includes:

  • The unemployment and labor force participation rates each inched up 0.1%, to 4.4% and 62.4%, respectively.
  • Job gains for both July and August were revised downward to a gain of 72,000 positions and a loss of 4,000 positions, respectively, with the 12-month average now standing at a gain of 109,000 jobs per month.
  • Manufacturing’s collective job losses of 14,000 in July and August were revised downward to a loss of 24,000 positions.
  • Employment in manufacturing has declined 94,000 over the year, the most of any sector.
  • Durable goods manufacturing employment dipped by 4,000 in September, while employment in nondurable goods decreased by 2,000.
  • Average hourly earnings for all private, nonfarm payroll employees increased 0.2%, reaching $36.67. In the past 12 months, employee earnings have gone up 3.8%.
  • The average workweek for all employees stayed the same at 34.2 hours, but for manufacturing workers, it moved down 0.1 hour to 39.9 hours.

Read more at the BLS

Solid Showing for Cutting Tool Demand

Machine shops and other U.S. manufacturing operations’ orders of cutting tools increased in value to $222 million during September, a 5.3% rise from August 2025 and a 14.7% improvement versus September 2024. Through nine months of purchasing activity, 2025 cutting tool orders have totaled $1.88 billion, a decrease of -1.1% compared to January-September 2024. Machine shops and other operations order cutting tools according to their current and anticipated manufacturing requirements.

“Cutting tool orders for September came in 14.7% above September 2024,” offered ITR Economics’ senior economist Michelle Kocses. “Even more encouraging is that the third quarter, as a whole, surpassed the third quarter of 2024, suggesting that this budding positive momentum is not a one-month fluke.” Kocses continued: “Buttressing this rise, U.S. industrial production is in an accelerating growth trend. CapEx is beginning to pick up as confidence gradually improves, but there are soft spots in oil-and-gas drilling and heavy-truck markets. Forward-looking evidence points to measured optimism for 2026.”

Read more at American Machinist

This Year’s Thanksgiving Feast Could Actually Be Cheaper

The American Farm Bureau Federation estimates that Thanksgiving dinner will cost an average of $55.18 for a group of 10, down 5% from last year. Holiday staples such as turkey, stuffing and cranberries cost less than in 2024, partly because of widespread discounting but also because overall demand for turkey and wheat—which is used to make stuffing—has been down. Other staples, including sweet potatoes and fresh fruit, cost more as the agriculture sector contends with tariffs and high costs. Thanksgiving dinner stands in contrast to the high prices confronting consumers at supermarkets this year. The cost for food at home this year through October was up 2.7% from last year, and those prices are 25% higher than five years ago.

Thanksgiving staple prices vs. 2024 levels:

  • Whole turkey, 16 lbs.—$21.50 (-16.2%)
  • Fresh cranberries, 12 oz.—$2.28 (-3%)
  • Cubed stuffing, 14 oz.—$3.71 (-9%)
  • Sweet potatoes, 3 lbs.—$4 (+36.5%)
  • Green peas, 1 lb.—$2.03 (+17.3%)

Read more at the WSJ

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Bipartisan Health Subsidy Bill Adds Income Caps, Anti-Fraud Measures

A bipartisan group of House lawmakers released text of legislation Friday aimed at avoiding the health care subsidy cliff by extending Affordable Care Act tax credits for two years while installing income caps and anti-fraud measures. Reps. Tom Suozzi, D-N.Y., Don Bacon, R-Neb., Josh Gottheimer, D-N.J., and Jeff Hurd, R-Colo., see the measure as a viable compromise that includes Democrats’ demand for a subsidy extension alongside protections sought by many Republicans. It would also significantly lengthen the open enrollment window, which would allow more people into plans, thus strengthening risk pools and lowering premiums.

Because the tax credits and premium prices remain unsettled as open enrollment approaches closing for most states on Dec. 15, the bill would extend the plan year 2026 enrollment period until May 15, 2026. The lawmakers said the legislation would extend enhanced premium tax credits for enrollees earning less than 600 percent of the federal poverty level, or about $200,000 per year for a family of four. For enrollees earning more than that, the bill would “phase out” the enhanced subsidies, they said.

Read more at Roll Call

N.Y. Lawmakers Mull Using Opioid Settlement Dollars To Backfill Fed Cuts

Some state lawmakers said they'll consider using opioid settlement dollars to backfill federal cuts to recovery programs in next year's budget, while others plan to fight hard for other solutions to avoid tapping into the fund. Each year, the state receives millions of dollars from lawsuits against opioid manufacturers and distributors that must be spent on addiction prevention. Facing a difficult budget cycle next session, it's possible the Legislature could decide to use that money to ease the pain of federal cuts.

State law requires opioid settlement funding to be spent in addition to, and not replace, existing state programs. But it doesn’t prohibit the money from being used to supplant federal funding for addiction services. The state Opioid Settlement Fund Advisory Board publicly clashed on the issue this summer, but failed to take an official position in its annual report of recommendations sent to state leaders earlier this month — leaving the question wide open next session.

Read more at NY State of Politics

College Grads Face One Of The Toughest Job Markets In A Decade — ‘Right Now Is A Really Difficult Time To Find A Job,’ Expert Says

By many measures, the labor market is still relatively strong. The U.S. economy added more jobs than expected in September, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. However, the overall unemployment rate edged up to 4.4%, and for younger workers, ages 16 to 24, unemployment was 10.4% in September. The current job market “is an enormous challenge for members of Gen Z who are just now entering the labor force,” a report published this week by Oxford Economics says.

A college degree is often considered the best pathway to a well-paying job, but that may no longer be as true as it once was, experts say. An analysis by Goldman Sachs found that the “safety premium” of a college degree is shrinking. Although college graduates are still less likely to be unemployed than their non-degree counterparts, the advantage is smaller than it’s been in decades. According to a report by education technology company Cengage Group, in its survey conducted in June and July 2025 only 30% of 2025 graduates said they had secured a full-time job in their field and only 41% of the Class of 2024 said they had done so. The survey included 971 recent graduates across the U.S.

Read more at CNBC

Millions of Kids Are on ADHD Pills. For Many, It’s the Start of a Drug Cascade.

Tens of thousands of kids who take prescription ADHD medication also wind up on other powerful psychotropic drugs—including antipsychotics and antidepressants, studies show. For some of them, the ADHD drugs themselves can be a trigger, according to doctors, patients and psychologists, who say additional medications are often prescribed to manage side effects such as insomnia, despite limited scientific evidence supporting these combinations in young, developing brains. About 7.1 million American children ages 3 to 17 have an ADHD diagnosis, according to an analysis of 2022 federal data. About half took ADHD medication for it that year, and prescriptions are growing.

The decision to treat ADHD with medication is often made by desperate parents trying to keep their kids from falling behind or being kicked out of school or daycare, parents and mental health clinicians say. For preschool-age kids, the drugs are often dispensed against pediatric guidelines, which call first for behavioral therapy, a treatment that can be hard to get. And mental health providers say the drugs are frequently prescribed to treat childhood trauma that has been misdiagnosed as ADHD. For one in five kids who take them, ADHD drugs are just the beginning. A Wall Street Journal analysis of Medicaid data from 2019 through 2023 shows that children who were prescribed a medication for ADHD were far more likely to take additional psychiatric drugs over the ensuing four years.

Read more at The WSJ 

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Trade Wars

Existing Home Sales Rise in October

Existing home sales rose 1.2% to a 4.1 million-unit pace in October, the second straight monthly gain. Although resales remain sluggish relative to historical norms on account of adverse affordability conditions, activity has trended higher in recent months alongside a modest easing in mortgage rates. Increased supply is another support factor, with better availability pulling prospective buyers off the sidelines and keeping home price appreciation moderate.

October's gain in existing sales is consistent with the recent drift higher in mortgage applications for purchase, suggesting home sales will continue to gradually improve from a low level over the next several months. While there is further scope for improvement in the months ahead, we do not anticipate a strong rebound as elevated homeownership costs remain a constraint. What's more, the bulk of mortgaged homeowners still hold sub-5% mortgage rates, well below where mortgage rates currently prevail. Since we do not expect mortgage rates to ease much more over the next few years, the mortgage lock-in effect will likely continue to limit new supply.

Read more at Wells Fargo

Novartis To Build Manufacturing Hub In North Carolina, Creating 700 Jobs

Novartis will expand its operations in North Carolina and build a manufacturing hub there as part of a planned $23 billion of U.S. infrastructure investment over the next five years, the Swiss pharmaceuticals company said on Wednesday. The expansion is projected to create 700 new positions at Novartis and more than 3,000 indirect jobs across the supply chain by 2030, the company's statement said.

The announcement follows a preliminary deal struck by the U.S. and Swiss governments last week to cut U.S. tariffs on Switzerland to 15% from 39%. Central to the deal is a pledge by Swiss companies such as Novartis to invest $200 billion in the U.S. by the end of 2028. Novartis said the new hub, expected to open in 2027 or 2028, will comprise two new facilities in Durham, North Carolina, for biologics manufacturing and sterile packaging, and a site in Morrisville for solid dosage production and packaging. The expansion is designed to increase the company's manufacturing capacity so that all of its key U.S. medicines can be produced domestically, it said.

Read more at Reuters

Moderna Expands mRNA Manufacturing In US At Site In Norwood, MA

Vaccine maker Moderna has announced a $140 million US manufacturing expansion at its existing Moderna Technology Center (MTC) in Norwood, Massachusetts. The project is envisioned to strengthen the company’s US manufacturing network and will support clinical and commercial supply of the firm’s mRNA production. Construction has already begun, and the company projects the expansion to be completed by 2027.

Although Moderna played a crucial role providing mRNA vaccines during the COVID-19 pandemic, the company has struggled through a series of highs and lows in the years since. In 2024’s shareholder letter, CEO Stéphane Bancel admitted that US sales had dropped due to an influx of competition in the market while global sales were seeing mixed results. Those issues led to a decrease in R&D and manufacturing spending.  Nevertheless, the company has forged ahead with manufacturing projects in the UK, Australia, and Canada to go along with its US plans.

Read more at BioProcess International

GE Appliances Invests $150 Million in U.S. Suppliers in Reshoring Push

GE Appliances said it has awarded $150 million in contracts to American suppliers as it prepares to move manufacturing of some product lines to the U.S. from China.  The 22 suppliers will provide steel, resin, parts and components for GE Appliances to make washers and combination washer-and-dryer machines at a renovated factory in Louisville, Ky. GE Appliances, owned by China’s Haier Smart Home, said the suppliers are located across 10 states, including four suppliers in Kentucky, four in Tennessee and three in Indiana. The value of the contracts ranges from about $330,000 to roughly $41 million.

The contract awards come as companies increasingly seek to work more closely with their suppliers to help cut costs, control exposure to tariffs and avoid disruptions like those seen during the Covid-19 pandemic. Ashley Eckert, senior director of sourcing at GE Appliances, said the company’s new contracts are part of a shift to involve vendors from the beginning of development rather than waiting until designs are complete.

Read more at the WSJ

Ford, Novelis Restore Operations After Another Oswego Plant Fire; Supplies To Ford Resume As Normal

Ford Motor Company and Novelis on Saturday issued a joint statement confirming that operations at Novelis’ Oswego aluminium plant have restarted after a fire incident on November 20. The facility was evacuated safely, and no injuries were reported among employees, contractors or first responders. The fire was contained quickly, allowing the plant to restore critical functions sooner than expected.

Novelis said its cold mill and heat-treatment lines were back online as of Saturday morning, enabling the company to resume shipments of finished aluminium to Ford. The restart is expected to minimise disruption across Ford’s supply chain, which relies heavily on Novelis for automotive-grade aluminium used in several vehicle programmes. Ford said the incident does not alter its full-year 2025 outlook. The company reaffirmed its adjusted EBIT guidance of USD 6–6.5 billion and adjusted free cash flow of USD 2–3 billion, signalling confidence that the supply disruption will remain limited.

Read more at Zee Biz

UPS Plane-Crash Probe Identifies ‘Fatigue Cracks,’ Metal Stress

Federal investigators probing the crash of a United Parcel Service cargo jet that killed 14 people in Louisville, Ky., earlier this month found signs of metal fatigue and stress in hardware that connected an engine to the plane, according to a preliminary accident report published Thursday. Investigators “found evidence of fatigue cracks in addition to areas of overstress failure” in a part of the engine mount that linked the McDonnell Douglas MD-11 freighter’s left engine to the wing, the National Transportation Safety Board report said. Video footage of the plane’s takeoff showed the General Electric engine aflame before it detached, shot above the fuselage and hit the ground.

The NTSB’s preliminary report stopped short of identifying what led to the metal components showing signs of fatigue and stress, or identifying a probable cause. Final conclusions are expected about a year after the accident. It wasn’t clear whether the metal fatigue should have been caught during earlier maintenance, whether inspection protocols need to be changed, or if such components should undergo more frequent checks.

Read more at the WSJ

Humanoid Robots Edge Closer To Manufacturing Safety

Humanoids are in a development mode, and many wonder when the reality of humanoids will affect manufacturing. Is it reality or science fiction? Boston Dynamics’ humanoid is Atlas. Atlas has been under development since 2013. In 2014, it was a Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) project. One of the drawbacks has been starting with hydraulic actuators. In 2024, using 3D components, the Atlas system moved to all electric actuators. Some say that Atlas is the most advanced humanoid in existence. Dexterity, movement and environment, as well as how a robot behaves in an environment, are directly related to safety.

To compile the inputs of all the sensors to allow for a humanoid to process its environment, software is key. Artificial intelligence should allow us to manage this. The hardware and software are constantly changing, but hardware is to a point that human-like movement has been obtained. Behavior and safety are more complex than the technology. How do you model behavior that allows a robot to do a task? I say model, because tasks should be adaptable and the goals in the humanoid arena are human interfaces that allow the robot to be taught by vision and showing. These are the same goals used to teach humans a repetitive process.

Read more at Control Design

Geothermal’s Time Has Finally Come

The future of clean energy is unfolding on a desert plateau about four hours north-east of Las Vegas. Dotted around the spectacular sands near Milford, Utah, are nearly two dozen wells, each reaching deep into the Earth where the rocks are permanently hot. Jack Norbeck says that his firm, Fervo, has “acquired over half a million acres of geothermal mineral rights across the US, which we see as over 50 gigawatts of opportunity”. Fervo is a buzzy geothermal-techno­logy startup backed by Google and other high-powered tech investors that wants to turn a once-neglected source of energy into a powerhouse. The privately held firm will start producing electricity next year in the first phase of a 500-megawatt deal with the power division of Shell, an oil company, and with a Californian utility. That is the largest commercial contract agreed for geothermal electricity in the industry’s history.

Because geothermal can offer clean energy around the clock, it is a perfect match for the incessant power-guzzling of data centres. That explains why Google, Meta and other purveyors of artificial intelligence keen on carbon-free but “firm” power are supporting geothermal innovations. Geothermal’s environmental credentials are stellar. Like wind and solar, it emits virtually no greenhouse gases during its operations. And, because Earth’s deep rocks are hot all the time, geothermal can provide reliable electricity around the clock, unlike the other intermittent renewable sources of energy. It can also provide clean heat and serve as grid-scale energy storage.

Read more at The Economist

Quote of the Day

"Not to be a socialist at twenty is proof of want of heart; to be one at thirty is proof of want of head."

Georges Clemenceau - French Politician and Prime Minister during the First World War. He died on this day in 1929.

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