Member Briefing November 25, 2025

Posted By: Harold King Daily Briefing,

Oxford Economics: Manufacturing Inches Into Expansion Territory

According to analysis from Manufacturers Alliance and Oxford Economics, the manufacturing sector as a whole is slowly moving out of an economic trough and back into an expansionary phase. In addition, the oil and gas and the utilities sectors are nearing the peak in their business cycles, and the construction sector has now moved into a contraction phase. Among the key sectors propelling manufacturing back into a recovery phase are pharmaceuticals, aerospace, electrical equipment and fertilizer and agricultural chemicals, all of which are in expansion mode.

On the other hand, key industries such as basic chemicals, motor vehicles, food and beverage and petroleum refinery are at or near the trough of their contraction phase. In addition, primary metals s as steel manufacturing—which is moving into expansion territory—are benefitting from downstream demand, including motor vehicles and aerospace. But costs remain high for primary metals and have constrained growth in sectors with weaker demand from such subsectors as industrial machinery.

Read more at IndustryWeek

Volatility In Aerospace Continues To Result In Dramatic Swings In Factory Orders

New orders for manufactured goods increased 1.4% in August, following a 1.3% decline in July. When excluding transportation, new orders inched up 0.1% over the month. Unfilled orders for all manufacturing industries rose 0.6% in August and jumped 7.7% over the year.

 

  • Shipments decreased $0.8 billion or 0.1 percent to $607.7 billion.
  • Unfilled orders, up thirteen of the last fourteen months, increased $9.4 billion or 0.6 percent to $1,478.7 billion.
  • Inventories, up ten of the last eleven months, increased $0.2 billion or virtually unchanged to $948.4 billion.
  • Orders for durable goods rose 2.9%, following a 2.8% drop in July. Year to date, durable goods orders are up 7.0%.
  • Nondurable goods orders edged down 0.1% in August after increasing 0.3% in July. Nondurable goods orders are down 0.2% over the year.

Read more at Census.gov

S&P Global PMI - US Manufacturing Slows In November As High Prices Curb Demand

U.S. factory activity slowed to a four-month low in November as higher prices because of tariffs on imports restrained demand, leading to a piling up of unsold goods that could hinder growth in the overall economy. S&P Global said its flash U.S. manufacturing PMI slipped to 51.9 this month from 52.5 in October. A reading above 50 indicates growth in the manufacturing sector, which accounts for 10.2% of the economy. The survey's measure of new orders received by factories dropped to 51.3 from 54.0 in October, while inventory was the highest in the survey's history. Manufacturers, However, took on more staff at the fastest rate for three months.

"Manufacturers reported a worrying combination of slower new orders growth and a record rise in finished goods stock," said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence. "This accumulation of unsold inventory hints at slower factory production expansion in the coming months unless demand revives, which could in turn feed through to lower growth in many service industries."

Read more at S&P Global

Middle East

Ukraine

Other Headlines

Trump Directs Science Agencies To Embrace AI

President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Monday to launch what’s being billed as the “Genesis Mission” — a new plan that directs the Department of Energy and other science agencies to aggressively deploy AI. Michael Kratsios, head of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy, described it as “the largest marshaling of federal scientific resources since the Apollo program.” In a call with reporters, he said the program is expected to accelerate the rate of scientific breakthroughs in areas such as pharmaceuticals, energy production and engineering.

Among other provisions, the order directs agencies to make their datasets easier to read with neural networks and other AI tools. Government-held scientific data and federal computing infrastructure will be made available to university researchers and private companies, as well as to national security practitioners. Kratsios said the technology will be used to automate experiment design, generate new predictive models and speed advanced simulations in areas such as protein folding and nuclear fusion. A separate White House official also on the call said AI is expected to make cutting-edge simulations run “10,000 to 100,000 times faster.”

Read more at Politico

Trump Says He Wants Obamacare Alternative Done By End Of January—After Subsidies Expire

President Donald Trump said Friday he wants Congress to negotiate a new solution to expiring Affordable Care Act subsidies by the end of January—but the proposed deadline is after the tax credits expire at the end of the year. Trump floated the timeline in an interview with Fox News Radio, telling the station, “they say, ‘well, let’s go another year.’ And I said, ‘let’s see if we can get it done by Jan. 30.’” Trump was referring to a push from Democrats, that’s also backed by some Republicans, to extend the subsidies for another year. Trump also said he wants to “give the money that we give to the insurance companies directly to the people, that the people buy their own health insurance.” Some Republicans have expressed support for Trump’s proposal, but experts have said the idea presents major challenges and could force some Obamacare enrollees to pay more for health insurance than they do now.

Negotiations surrounding the Obamacare subsidies have been at a standstill but showed some signs of progress Friday as a bipartisan group of lawmakers announced legislation that would extend the tax credits for two years, with some changes to appease Republican lawmakers. The legislation would phase out enhanced tax credits for a family of four earning between $200,000 and $300,000, Politico reported.

Read more at Forbes

DOGE ‘Doesn’t Exist’ With Eight Months Left On Its Charter

The Department of Government Efficiency has disbanded with eight months left to its mandate, ending an initiative launched with fanfare as a symbol of Trump’s pledge to slash the government’s size but which critics say delivered few measurable savings. It is no longer a “centralized entity,” Office of Personnel Management Director Scott Kupor said, in the first public comments from the Trump administration on the end of DOGE.

The fading away of DOGE is in sharp contrast to the government-wide effort over months to draw attention to it, with Trump, his advisers and cabinet secretaries posting about it on social media. Musk, who led DOGE initially, regularly touted its work on his X platform and at one point brandished a chainsaw to advertise his efforts to cut government jobs. DOGE claimed to have slashed tens of billions of dollars in expenditures, but it was impossible for outside financial experts to verify that because the unit did not provide detailed public accounting of its work.

Read more at CNBC

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Flu Season Could Be Brutal This Year. What To Know About A New Strain.

A new strain of the flu called subclade K could make for a particularly nasty flu season across the country, according to public health experts. The strain already caused Japan to declare an influenza epidemic. The United Kingdom’s flu season started a month earlier than usual, a trend also playing out across the Atlantic. U.S. flu cases have already reached numbers typically seen in December, said Cameron Wolfe, a professor of medicine and infectious disease specialist at Duke University.

Subclade K is a variant of the H3N2 influenza, which has dominated past flu seasons and cocirculated with an H1N1 last year. H3N2 variants tend to cause more severe symptoms like a high fever, fatigue and severe body aches in comparison with H1N1 variants, which tend to be more mild, according to the Doctors Diagnostic Center. The Vaccine Alliance warned that subclade K is worrying because of mutations that occurred since the summer, when researchers developed a flu vaccine around another sub-variant of H3N2, called subclade J.2. Early reports from the U.K. show that this year’s vaccine still provides some protection against the new variant.

Read more at The Hill

Upcoming Council Programs

Events

Manufacturing Champions Award Breakfast - Friday May 8, 2026 -7:45 - 10:00 AM. The DoubleTree Poughkeepsie.

Networks

HR Sub Council Meeting Topic TBD, January 14, 2026, 8:15 - 11:00. Selux Corporation, Highland.

Insight Exchange On Demand Webinars

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Training

Certificate in Manufacturing Leadership Program Winter Session, Virtual. Supervisor Training Program for Hudson Valley Manufacturers. 7 Courses (15 half day sessions) January 6 - March 11 Via Zoom.

Lean Six Sigma Green Belt This program combines online coursework, with live Zoom sessions, to deliver a flexible and effective learning experience in Lean Six Sigma methodologies. Most Mondays March 2 - June 8 Via Zoom.

(Special Info session for those who are 'Green Belt curious' February 23rd)

Nokia Pledges $4B US Manufacturing, R&D Investment

Electronics maker Nokia announced on Nov. 21 that it has committed to spending $4 billion to expand its manufacturing and research and development capabilities in the United States. The funds will help the Finland-based company to accelerate innovation in artificial intelligence-ready technologies in mobile, fixed access, internet protocol, optical and data center networking, according to the press release. The investment is also expected to help strengthen Nokia’s AI-optimized networking products and R&D in advanced networking technologies such as automation, quantum-safe, semiconductor manufacturing, testing, packaging and material sciences.

Nokia said it expects to spend around $3.5 billion on R&D in an effort to progress new technologies in connectivity and AI through all aspects of its telecommunications infrastructure, such as mobile, data center and defense solutions. The remaining $500 million will be invested in domestic manufacturing and R&D across Texas, New Jersey and Pennsylvania. The investment adds to the $2.3 billion Nokia spent to acquire chipmaker Infinera, which was completed in February, helping the company build on its commitment in U.S.-based manufacturing, advanced testing and packaging capabilities, per the June 2024 press release.

Read more at Manufacturing Dive

World’s Steelmakers Slow the Slide in Tonnage Production

Global steel production reversed a four-month slide of overall tons produced across the 70 nations reporting to the World Steel Association - totaling 143.8 million metric tons for October, a 1.0% improvement from September. Even so, the October tonnage is -5.9% less than the result for October 2024, and the new result brings the 2025 year-to-date total to 1.518 billion metric tons, a -2.1% decrease versus the January-October 2024 tonnage.

Most of the major steelmaking nations have been negatively affected since the U.S. imposed tariffs on imports of semi-finished steel in April - initially at 25%, now at 50% for almost all countries - but the global industry has been reducing its output for several years due to weak industrial demand and slow construction activity in various regions, and other complicating factors.

Read more at American Machinist

Novo Nordisk Ozempic Pill Fails in Alzheimer’s Trials

Novo Nordisk NOVO.B -9.58%decrease; red down pointing triangle shares fell sharply after the Danish drugmaker said a pill with the key ingredient in Ozempic and Wegovy didn’t slow Alzheimer’s disease in two late-stage clinical trials. The company said Monday that the trials didn’t confirm superiority of semaglutide compared with placebo in reducing the progression of Alzheimer’s disease. While most commonly used for weight loss and diabetes, Ozempic and others in the GLP-1 category of drugs such as Eli Lilly’s Mounjaro and Zepbound have shown efficacy in studies for heart, kidney and liver diseases.

Novo Nordisk said it decided to pursue an Alzheimer’s disease indication with semaglutide based on real-world evidence studies, preclinical models, and analyses of trials for diabetes and obesity. Some analysts had seen the move as something of a long shot. The trials, which enrolled more than 3,800 patients with early-stage Alzheimer’s, studied the efficacy and safety of oral semaglutide compared with placebo on top of standard of care. The company said treatment with semaglutide led to improvement in biomarkers related to Alzheimer’s, but this didn’t delay the progression of the disease. Novo Nordisk said it would discontinue an extension period in the trials. It plans to provide more details on the trials at a medical conference next month.

Read more at the WSJ

Boeing And Northrup Grumman Compete To Build A New Stealth Fighter For The US Navy

Boeing and Northrop Grumman are competing to build the US Navy's next-generation F/A-XX stealth fighter, which is expected to replace the F/A-18E/F Super Hornet in the 2030s. The Navy has moved the program to operational testing and evaluation, with Congress allocating $750 million to expedite development. Lockheed Martin has been eliminated from the competition.

The F/A-XX program is a high-profile aircraft competition that could define the future of naval aviation. The program will see a carrier-based combat jet to complement the F-35 aboard the Navy’s warships. The jet will offer significant advancements in operational capabilities, particularly in contested environments. Advanced range, endurance, and superior stealth capabilities will be key features of the aircraft. The F/A-XX is developed to enable and enhance integration with existing and future carrier-based air defence systems.

Read more at Aerospace Global

First Solar Selects South Carolina for New US Production Facility

First Solar announced earlier this month that it would build a new solar panel factory in Gaffney, South Carolina. According to a company release, the $330 million factory will onshore final production of the company’s Series 6 Plus photovoltaic solar panels. The company estimates the new factory, once at full capacity, will have an annual output of 3.7 gigawatts, bringing the company’s total annual nameplate capacity to 17.7 GW in 2027. Its other U.S. manufacturing sites are in Ohio, Louisiana, and Alabama. The new factory will take photovoltaic cells assembled internationally and assemble them into completed solar panels.

“The passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and the Administration’s trade policies boosted demand for American energy technology, requiring a timely, agile response that allows us to meet the moment,” said Mark Widmar, First Solar CEO. “We expect that this new facility will enable us to serve the U.S. market with technology that is compliant with the Act’s stringent provisions, within timelines that align with our customers’ objectives.”

Read more at Plant Services

Economic Confidence Improved Slightly After Shutdown Ended—But Remains Near Historic Lows

Consumer sentiment—a monthly measurement of Americans’ views on the economy—dropped to 51 in November from 53.6 in October, a slight improvement from a preliminary reading of 50.3, a reading of the University of Michigan’s study found. The preliminary reading came within reach of an all-time low set in June 2022. A measurement of how Americans currently view the economy dropped to an all-time low of 51.1, down from a preliminary reading of 52.3 and the historical benchmark of 100, as consumers expect prices to rise 4.5% over the next year.

Americans are “frustrated about the persistence of high prices and weakening incomes,” Survey director Joanne Hsu said. Rising prices and steady inflation continue to be a concern among consumers, according to Hsu, who said respondents are reporting their personal finances are “weighed down” by current price tags. Earlier this month, Hsu said consumers were withstanding “pressure” on their finances from “multiple directions,” as Americans anticipated the job market to continue deteriorating and expected to be “personally affected.” The latest report found that consumers’ expectations about losing their jobs fell to the highest reading since January 2020.

Read more at Forbes

Astrazeneca To Invest $2 Billion As Part Of US Manufacturing Push

AstraZeneca said on Friday it will invest $2 billion to expand its manufacturing footprint in Maryland as part of its previously announced $50 billion plan to expand manufacturing and research capabilities in the U.S. by 2030. Global pharmaceutical companies have been ramping up investments in the United States to expand production capacity, following President Donald Trump's call for the industry to make more medicines domestically instead of importing active ingredients or finished products.

The Anglo-Swedish drugmaker's $2 billion investment will help expand its biologics manufacturing facility in Frederick and construct a new state-of-the-art facility in Gaithersburg for the development and clinical supply of drugs to be used in trials. This investment marks the fourth in AstraZeneca's larger expansion plan, and will support 2,600 jobs across the two sites in Maryland, including the creation of 300 highly skilled jobs.

Read more at Reuters

Americans Are Holding Onto Devices Longer Than Ever - It’s Impacting The Economy

The average American now holds onto their smartphone for 29 months, according to a recent survey by Reviews.org, and that cycle is getting longer. The average was around 22 months in 2016. While squeezing as much life out of your device as possible may save money in the short run, especially amid widespread fears about the strength of the consumer and job market, it might cost the economy in the long run, especially when device hoarding occurs at the level of corporations.

Research released by the Federal Reserve last month concludes that each additional year companies delay upgrading equipment results in a productivity decline of about one-third of a percent, with investment patterns accounting for approximately 55% of productivity gaps between advanced economies. Experts agree lost productivity and inefficiency are the unintended consequences of people and businesses clinging to aging technology. The good news: businesses in the U.S. are generally quicker to reinvest in replacing aging equipment. The Federal Reserve report shows that if European productivity had matched U.S. investment patterns starting in 2000, the productivity gap between the U.S and European economic heavyweights would have been reduced by 29 percent for the U.K., 35 percent for France, and 101% for Germany.

Read more at CNBC

Florida Space Coast Tops 100 Launches As Space Force Pushes For Range Upgrades

SpaceX launched a Falcon 9 rocket into the sky off Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, carrying 29 Starlink internet satellites bound to go into low Earth orbit. The importance of this launch was that it was the 100th launch of the year in Florida in the Space Coast, thus showing the level of activity that has been taking place in the world of space launches. Achieving such a launch tempo matters for both commercial and scientific space endeavours. The high frequency of launches lowers the cost per flight and creates more opportunities for research, defence, and exploration missions.

According to reports, this launch was a big local one, but it is a component of a larger wave of action in space. The state of Florida experienced 100 launches within a year, which was a record in the region. This year, Falcon 9 has undertaken 149 flights, and over 90 flights have been in Florida itself. This is an improvement over the past records, which have demonstrated that the re-use of rockets and the use of satellite constellations have indeed increased the number of launches. This pace has been critical in maintaining this rate through the constant booster landings and the rapid turnarounds.

Read more at Gadgets 360

Quote of the Day

“That best portion of a good man's life— His little, nameless, unremembered acts Of kindness and of love.”

Andrew Carnegie - Scottish/American Industrialist and Philanthropist who was born on this day in 1835.

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