Member Briefing April 2, 2025
JOLTS Report: Fewer US Job Openings, Layoffs Unchanged in Slowing Labor Market
U.S. job openings fell in February as rising uncertainty over the economy due to tariffs on imports curbed demand for labor.Job openings, a measure of labor demand, dropped 194,000 to 7.568 million by the last day of February, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said in its Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS report, on Tuesday. Layoffs increased 116,000 to a still-low 1.790 million. Over the month, hires and total separations held at 5.4 million and 5.3 million, respectively, the BLS noted in its press release. Within separations, quits (3.2 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.8 million) changed little.
There were 482,000 openings In manufacturing in February, down from 513,000 in January and 561,000 in February 2024. There were 332,000 hires in the sector in February, unchanged from January but up from 324,000 in February 2024. There were 344,000 total separations in the sector in February, up from 333,000 in January and but down from 356,000 in February 2024.
U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI Slips Back Into Contraction Territory In March
The U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.0 in March from 50.3 in February, trailing the 49.5 consensus. The contraction last month (with index below 50) followed two straight months of expansion preceded by 26 consecutive months of contraction, said Timothy Fiore, chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. During the month, "demand and output weakened while input strengthened further, a negative for economic growth," he explained, as indicated by weakness in the gauges for new orders (45.2 vs. 48.6 in February), new export orders (49.6 vs. 51.4 prior), orders backlog (44.5 vs. 46.8 prior) and customers' inventories (46.8 vs. 45.3 prior). Production and employment (i.e., output) also softened sequentially, with the former index sliding to 48.3 from 50.7 in February and the latter dipping to 44.7 from 47.6 prior.
The nine manufacturing industries recording growth last month include: Textile Mills; Petroleum & Coal Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Primary Metals; Computer & Electronic Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Transportation Equipment; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing. Conversely, the seven industries posting contraction in March were: Wood Products; Paper Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Furniture & Related Products; Chemical Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Machinery.
Global Manufacturing Growth Remains Weak At End Of Opening Quarter
The global manufacturing sector ended the opening quarter of the year on a lackluster footing. At 50.3 in March, the J.P.Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI® – a composite index produced by J.P.Morgan and S&P Global Market Intelligence in association with ISM and IFPSM – was down from 50.6 in February and signaled only a slight improvement in overall operating conditions for the third month in a row. Global manufacturing output increased for the third successive month in March, although the rate of growth was the weakest during that sequence. Production rose in the consumer and intermediate goods industries but fell for the ninth time in the past ten months in the investment goods category.
Rising concerns about the geopolitical situation, high costs and possible disruption to world trade flows from tariffs all hurt business optimism in March. Confidence fell to a three- month low and eased across the consumer, intermediate and investment goods industries. Reduced optimism about the outlook was a major factor underlying an eighth successive month-on-month decrease in global manufacturing employment. Job losses in the euro area and the UK (among others) were only partly offset by increases in mainland China and Japan. No change was signaled in US staffing levels.
Global Headlines
Middle East
- Israel Confirms Hezbollah Targeted In Overnight Beirut Strike – France 24
- Palestinian Man Tortured To Death By Hamas Militants After Criticizing Group And Attending Protests, Family Says - CNN
- Iran Oil Tanker Seizure Stokes Tensions with U.S. - Newsweek
- Iran Will Have 'No Choice' But To Get Nukes If Attacked, Says Khamenei Adviser – France 24
- Syrians Wake Up to a New Government - NYT
- Anti-Israel Cornell Student Slated For Deportation Says He’s Leaving The US - BBC
- Interactive Map- Israel’s Operation In Gaza – Institute For The Study Of War
- Map – Tracking Hamas’ Attack On Israel – Live Universal Awareness Map
Ukraine
- Russian Advance In Ukraine Slows For Fourth Consecutive Month, ISW Data Shows – France 24
- Ukraine's Transformation Into A Military Powerhouse - Newsweek
- Germany Launches Permanent Troop Deployment On NATO’s Eastern Flank - Politico
- Senior Russian Official Is Expected To Visit Washington For Talks With Trump Administration This Week - CNN
- As Le Pen’s Presidential Hopes Hang In The Balance, Bardella Waits In The Wings – France 24
- Putin Launches Largest Military Draft in Years Despite Ceasefire Talks - Newsweek
- Bipartisan Group of Senators Readies New Sanctions to Hit Russia - Bloomberg
- Interactive Map: Assessed Control Of Terrain In Ukraine – Institute For The Study Of War
- Map – Tracking Russia’s Invasion Of Ukraine – Live Universal Awareness Map
Other Headlines
- China Launches Military Drills From ‘Multiple Directions’ Around Taiwan, Testing US Resolve – CNN
- Le Pen Verdict Fuels Claims That Europe’s Elites Are Colluding Against Populists - WSJ
- Le Pen Could Still Become French President After Appeal Slated For 2026 - Politico
- Greenland Map Shows 'Strategic Resources' Eyed By US, China - Newsweek
- Myanmar Holds Minute's Silence For More Than 2,700 Dead In Devastating Earthquake – France 24
- Russian, Chinese Foreign Ministers Discuss Iran's Nuclear Program And Korea, Russia Says - Reuters
- Finland Will Exit Global Land Mine Treaty As Russia Fears Grow - Politico
- Whiskey-Drinking Rocker Transforms Into West Africa’s Most Dangerous al Qaeda Leader– WSJ
Policy and Politics
'Liberation Day:’ Trump Considers A 'Blanket' Option Of 20% Tariffs
A staple of Donald Trump’s 2024 campaign trail rhetoric returned this week with a version of 20% "blanket" tariffs now apparently being considered as the president struggles to fill in the details of his “Liberation Day” promises. The potential move, applying to all or most goods imported to the United States, would represent a dramatic pivot of sorts for the president amid implementation worries and political complications that have dogged the White House’s long-promised plan for more specific country-by-country duties.
Thus far, there are signs from media reports that 20% duties are being considered by the Trump team, including a report Tuesday from the Washington Post that detailed the latest machinations. Some in the administration are openly pushing for aggressive revenue goals where the math would likely require some flavor of universal duties. If nothing else, a blanket tariff would be simpler to implement and is likely not to add significantly to what is known as the Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the United States — an already overstuffed 99-chapter-long guide that duty collectors and importers rely on at ports.
‘Liberation Day’ Tariffs to Take Immediate Effect, White House Says
President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs will take immediate effect after they are announced today, his top spokeswoman said. “My understanding is that the tariff announcement will come tomorrow. They will be effective immediately, and the president has been teasing this for quite some time,” White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters on Tuesday.The US president said Monday he had “settled” on a plan for so-called “reciprocal” duties meant to rebalance US trade relationships. Leavitt said that Trump, who has been known to change his mind on major policy announcements, was meeting Tuesday afternoon with his trade team to discuss the details.
Trump plans to roll out tariffs on global trading partners during an event planned for today at 4 p.m. in the White House Rose Garden, the centerpiece of his effort to bring back manufacturing to the US and reshape a world trade system he has long decried as unfair.
Legislature Passes $1.7 Billion Extender As State Misses Budget Deadline
The state Legislature passed a $1.7 billion budget extender on Tuesday that will fund the state government through Thursday. State Budget Director Blake Washington acknowledged yesterday that despite negotiations over the weekend, the 2026 Fiscal Year budget would not be settled by its April 1 deadline, and more extenders have been prepared. The extender was primarily to fund Medicaid cycle payments and continue to pay the state’s workforce. Lawmakers do not receive their salary when the budget runs past its deadline.
State Senate Majority Leader Andrea Stewart-Cousins and Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie have said that policy disputes, rather than concerns about finances, are the main thing holding up the budget, though there are also questions about how to fund the Metropolitan Transportation Authority’s capital plan. Changes to discovery laws, an expansion of the involuntary commitment standard, a mask ban and a ban on cell phones in schools are among Gov. Kathy Hochul’s non-negotiable policy priorities. State Senate Republicans are not pleased with how negotiations are proceeding. State Senate Minority Leader Rob Ortt said that New Yorkers were seeing was a failure in leadership from Democrats in state government.
State Budget Director Warns NY Will Have To Cut Services If Federal Funding Dries Up
The state’s budget director says that if federal cuts to vital services come to pass in Congress’ final budget plan, the state can’t simply raise more money and will have to make its own cuts. Nearly $91 billion of Gov. Kathy Hochul’s $252 billion executive budget proposal comes from the federal government. Blake Washington told reporters that while there are some unknowns, the contingency plan is pretty straightforward. "There's no bottom to some of these. We don't have the ability on the state side to backfill,” Washington said Monday. “The only way you can really backfill on the state side is to cut services for other things, and you sort of modify spending across the platform. And so you have got to make sure they’re sustained."
Some maintain that the specter of federal cuts could be partially alleviated by increasing income taxes on the wealthy in an effort to raise state revenue. But even raising income taxes – which Hochul has said she is not willing to consider – would not raise enough money to compensate for all of the federal funding that the state receives. Lawmakers from the state to federal level have pointed out that backfilling $90 billion is simply not an option. In order to protect New York’s overall stability, Washington’s approach, and that of the state government, may be the only path that makes sense.
Trump’s First 100 Days
- Three Big Unknowns Ahead Of Trump's 'Liberation Day' Tariffs – BBC
- Liberal Wins Wisconsin Supreme Court Race in Rebuke of Trump, Musk – WSJ
- Elon Musk Says Institute of Peace Wiped Terabyte of Data To 'Cover Crimes' - Newsweek
- Layoffs Begin At U.S. Health Agencies Charged With Tracking Disease, Researching, And Regulating Food - CNBC
- Trump Sends More Migrants to El Salvador Prison - WSJ
- Pair Of Florida Elections Could Boost Republicans' Slim US House Majority - Reuters
- Florida Republican Defeats Democrat In US House Special Election - BBC
- Senate Parliamentarian Could Make Or Break Trump Agenda – The Hill
- With A TikTok Ban Looming, Trump Signals A Deal Will Come Before April 5 Deadline – Yahoo Finance
- Judge Temporarily Blocks Trump Administration From Removing Venezuelan Migrant Protections - Forbes
- Trump Administration Targets Harvard With Review of $9 Billion in Federal Funding - WSJ
- DOJ To Seek Death Penalty For Luigi Mangione In CEO Brian Thompson Murder Case - CNBC
- Cory Booker Nears Record for Longest Senate Speech in Trump Protest – The Hill
- The Trump Tracker, Stay Up To Date on the First 100 Days – WSJ
Health and Wellness
If Vaccines Don’t Cause Autism, What Does?
We still don’t know what definitively causes autism. If we did, it would help convince people what doesn’t cause it. In short, autism’s causes remain complex. That is an understandably unsatisfying answer to parents with children who have been diagnosed with autism spectrum disorder. So what do we know about what causes ASD, a neurodevelopmental disorder that encompasses a range of conditions resulting in varying degrees of challenges with social skills, speech and repetitive behaviors?
First, the number of children diagnosed with autism has been rising. About one in 36 U.S. 8-year-olds is diagnosed with ASD, up from one in 150 children in 2000. Researchers attribute the rise largely to better awareness and broader diagnostic criteria. Scientists say genetics plays the dominant role—both inherited traits and spontaneous mutations in early conception. In other words, ASD is largely out of our control. More often than not, people with heritable genetic traits for autism don’t even know it. The remaining risk comes from the impact of environmental factors that occur largely in utero while the fetus’s brain is developing. So the groundwork is laid before we are even born.
Industry News
Buying A Home Requires 50% More Income Than It Did Five Years Ago
If you want to buy a typical home in 2025, your household income has to be about $117,000, according to a new study on housing affordability from Bankrate. Just before the pandemic, you needed $78,000. That’s a 50% increase in five years. All while wages have gone up just 27%. There are two big reasons homes are so difficult to afford, said Redfin chief economist Daryl Fairweather: “It’s a combination of high prices and high mortgage rates.” With higher home prices come higher property taxes and home insurance premiums. On top of that, mortgage rates are nearly double what they were five years ago.
Home prices are expected to go up another 5% this year, according to Bankrate analyst Jeff Ostrowski. Inventory remains tight. But he said we may have reached the boundaries of affordability. “The days of bidding wars and 30 people putting in an offer on an unremarkable suburban house … those days are gone,” he said. Those days might be gone, but better days aren’t coming yet either. “The lesson of the past four years has been: It doesn’t look like a great time to buy a house now, but it’s probably going to get worse,” Ostrowski said.
Construction Spending Rises in February But Uncertainty Looms Over the Outlook
February's construction data were broadly positive, however uncertainty regarding trade policy has reduced visibility for the path ahead. Total construction spending improved 0.7% in February. For the month the American Institute of Architects (AIA) reported the first decline in new project inquiries since the throes of the pandemic in 2020. The drop reflects a building stack of uncertainty related to new tariffs, monetary policy and economic growth and suggests a weaker pace of construction spending moving forward.
- February's 0.7% rise in overall construction spending primarily was driven by higher home improvement and single-family outlays. Private home improvement spending rose 2.0% in February, partially making up for declines in December and January.
- Single-family construction outlays posted a 1.0% improvement, the sixth consecutive increase. This uptrend has brought the pace of private single-family outlays nearly back to its year-ago level.
- Multifamily construction is stabilizing following a year and a half of deterioration. Private multifamily outlays were flat in February, coinciding with a sideways trend in permits that was registered in recent months.
General Motors Sales Jump 17% In 1st Quarter Of 2025, With EV Sales Nearly Doubling
General Motors' sales rose 17% in the first quarter of 2025 compared with the same period last year, exceeding analyst expectations and underscoring a pull-ahead in customer demand due to tariff fears despite longstanding affordability hurdles in the market. GM reported Tuesday it sold 693,363 vehicles in the first quarter in the U.S., compared with a 1.5% slide one year ago to 594,233 vehicles sold.
Electric vehicle sales nearly doubled in the quarter, rising 94% to 31,887, making GM the second-largest seller of electric vehicles in the U.S. behind Tesla. Those sales were driven by sharp sales increases in both the Equinox and Blazer EVs. GM sold 61,822 Buicks in the quarter, up 39%. Total Chevrolet sales of 443,564 marked a nearly 14% increase, and GMC rose about 18% to 146,220 vehicles.
Read more at The Detroit Free Press
Ford Reports Q1 Total Sales Fell 1.3% As It Ended Production Of Some Models
Ford Motor Co. reported Tuesday that total U.S. new vehicle sales dropped by 1.3% to 501,291 vehicles in the first quarter compared with the year-ago period. The drop was due mostly to the timing on Ford's rental fleet sales, making the comparison against the year-ago period tougher, and its discontinuation of the popular Ford Edge SUV and Transit Connect van. Ford stopped production of the Edge in April last year. Ford ended the small Transit Connect after the 2023 model year.
On a retail sales only basis, Ford reported sales rose 5% for the quarter driven by a surge in sales last month, the automaker said. Industry experts have reported some sales growth last month as consumers tried to get in front of the 25% tariffs on imported cars and parts set to take effect later this week.
Read more at The Detroit Free Press
Schneider Electric Invests $700M To Support Growing U.S. Digitalization, Automation, And Manufacturing Demand
Schneider Electric has announced a planned investment of over $700 million in its U.S. operations through 2027, marking the company’s largest single capital expenditure commitment in its 135-year history. This investment will support energy infrastructure improvements, AI growth, and increased domestic manufacturing, with a focus on energy efficiency, industrial automation, and grid reliability. Schneider Electric’s expanded operations will create over 1,000 jobs and strengthen its supply chain, with planned upgrades, expansions, and new facilities in multiple U.S. locations.
This expansion, alongside Schneider Electric’s previous investments, will push its total U.S. investment to over $1 billion by the end of the decade, reinforcing its leadership in digital transformation, energy efficiency, and automation in the U.S.
Boeing Draws $2.4B for C-17 Services
The U.S. Dept. of Defense issued $2.45 billion to Boeing Defense, Space and Security for support and sustainment services on the U.S. Air Force C-17 Globemaster III program. The award is a modification to a contract originally granted to Boeing in 2021 and brings the current cumulative value of the contract to $5.14 billion. The Boeing C-17 Globemaster III is a military transport aircraft developed for the USAF by McDonnell Douglas Corp. and in service since 1995. Boeing manufactured the C-17 after its merger with McDonnel Douglas in 1997, and continues to provide service and support to the aircraft fleet. The C-17 is used for tactical and strategic airlift, troop and cargo transport, and evacuation and airdrop missions.
As outlined in the original contract, the services include program management; sustaining logistics; material and equipment management; sustaining engineering; quality assurance; depot level aircraft maintenance and modifications; F117 propulsion system management; long-term sustainment planning; field services, unique foreign military customer services and Air Logistics Center partnering support for the worldwide fleet of the C-17 aircraft.
Read more at American Machinist
Study: Workplaces Are Getting More Toxic
According to a new survey from leading staffing agency Express Employment Professionals and market research outfit Harris Poll. Their new survey shows a “troubling increase in toxic behaviors within the workplace” across the U.S., with survey respondents revealing that employees at their company are much more confrontational than they were just three years ago. The research involved surveying 1,001 U.S. hiring decision-makers and 1,039 job-seeking adults aged 18 and up, and some of its results may unsettle business leaders and human resources teams across the nation.
Some 30 percent of employed job-seekers (people who have a job but are actively looking for new work) said that more confrontations were happening at work now than three years back. That’s a sizable share of the workforce, with results skewing slightly toward male respondents: Thirty-four percent felt like this compared with 23 percent of female job seekers. But the data gets worse: Over one in five employed job seekers said they’d seen a rise in colleagues being “mean” to others at work over the past year. Many factors may contribute to this sentiment, like the contentious election cycle last year, but the new survey suggests that disgruntled workers are partly blaming the management of their companies.
The MIT Scientist Behind the ‘Torpedo Bats’ That Are Blowing Up Baseball
When Aaron Leanhardt was a graduate student in physics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, he was part of a research team that cooled sodium gas to the lowest temperature ever recorded in human history. What his colleagues didn’t realize was that in the rare moments when Leanhardt wasn’t toiling away at the lab, he was moonlighting as a speedy shortstop in a local amateur baseball league. Leanhardt was good enough to play in a 2001 All-Star Game at a minor-league stadium in Lowell. He hit .464 that season.
More than two decades later, the baseball world suddenly knows all about the 48-year-old Leanhardt. He’s the inventor of the so-called “torpedo bat,” perhaps the most significant development in bat technology in decades. Leanhardt’s creation exploded into the mainstream this weekend, when the New York Yankees tied a major-league record by bashing 15 home runs in the first three games of their season. Nine of the homers came from players who have adopted the torpedo bat. The ‘torpedo’ moves the fat part of the bat closer to the handle rather than the end. The result is a product that better resembles a bowling pin than a traditional bat, redistributing the weight to the area where players most often make contact with the ball. Leanhardt eventually came to think a bat as having what he describes as a “wood budget.” The goal was to use as much of that budget as possible in the ideal spot—six or 7 inches below the tip—without sacrificing swing speed.