Member Briefing April 3, 2025
‘Liberation Day’ Tariffs Announced – The Headlines, Releases and What you Need to Know
The White House announced blanket 10% tariffs on imports, with much higher “reciprocal” levies on China and other trading partners.
What to Know About Trump’s Latest Tariffs - WSJ
Dow Futures Tumble 1,000 Points On Fear Trump’s Tariffs Will Spark Trade War: Live Updates - CNBC
Vehicles, Certain Auto Parts Are Exempt From Reciprocal Tariffs, White House Says – Automotive News
Trump Ends Popular ‘De Minimis’ Trade Exemption for China Used by Shein, Temu - Reuters
Trump Unveils Sweeping Tariffs in Stark Shift in Trade Policy - WSJ
Answering Your Questions About President Trump's Reciprocal Tariffs - AP
Europe Slams ‘Illegal’ Trump Tariffs, Vows Unified Response - Politico
As Tariffs Hit, Manufacturers Brace for Impact – NAM Press Release
China Vows To Retaliate After ‘Bullying’ US Imposes 34% Reciprocal Tariff -SCMP
Trump's Sweeping Tariffs Rattle Asian Markets: Japan's Nikkei Down 4% - Nikkei Asia
Watch: Key Moments In Trump's 'Liberation Day' Tariffs Announcement - BBC
Commerce: US Factory Orders Rise Solidly In February
New orders for U.S.-manufactured goods increased solidly in February, likely as businesses front-loaded orders ahead of tariffs. Factory orders rose 0.6% after an upwardly revised 1.8% rebound in January, the Commerce Department's Census Bureau said on Wednesday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast factory orders would climb 0.5% after a previously reported 1.7% advance in January. Factory orders gained 1.5% on a year-on-year basis in February.
- Commercial aircraft orders slipped 5.0%. Orders for motor vehicles, parts and trailers increased 1.9%.
- Transportation equipment orders advanced 1.5%.
- Orders for computers and electronic products were unchanged, while those for electrical equipment, appliances and components rebounded 1.9%.
- Machinery orders increased 0.6%.
- Orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, which are seen as a measure of business spending plans on equipment, fell 0.2% in February rather than 0.3%, as estimated last month.
- Shipments of core capital goods jumped 0.8%, revised down from the previously reported 0.9%.
Nearly 10M ‘Delinquent’ Student Loan Borrowers Will See Credit Scores Drop: Federal Reserve Bank
An estimated 9.7 million student-loan borrowers, who owe more than $250 billion, face a hit to their credit scores as pandemic-era measures to limit the consequences of non-payment fade away, according to Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Research and Statistics Group. “It is reasonable to expect student loan delinquency to surpass pre-pandemic levels when new delinquencies hit credit reports…,” the New York Fed said in a blog post last week. “Borrowers enrolled in the SAVE Plan are in forbearance due to federal litigation of the SAVE Plan.”
Then the Biden administration instituted a 12-month "on-ramp period" through September 2024 that froze notices to credit agencies about missed payments. “By the end of 2024, those borrowers with loans in delinquency or in default saw scores that were 103 and 72 points higher, respectively, than at the end of 2019,” said the blog. However, reporting of student loan delinquencies resumed after the Jan. 1 deadline. “Delinquencies will hit credit reports over a rolling window as borrowers with missed payments advance beyond 90 days past due,” according to the Federal Reserve.
Global Headlines
Middle East
- Trump, Iran Trade Nuclear Barbs As U.S. Sends Bombers And Warships To Region – Washington Post
- Revenge Killing of Hamas Policeman Adds to Building Pressure on Group – WSJ
- Israel Vows To Capture Large Areas In New Gaza Ground Assault - Politico
- Israel’s Military Operation In Gaza Strip Expanding To Seize ‘Large Areas,’ Defense Minister Says - AP
- Israel’s Netanyahu Announces New ‘Morag’ Security Corridor Across Gaza – France 24
- Iraqi Militia Warns Over U.S.-Iran War: "Ignite the Entire Region" - Newsweek
- How Inclusive Is Syria's New Technocratic Cabinet? - DW
- Interactive Map- Israel’s Operation In Gaza – Institute For The Study Of War
- Map – Tracking Hamas’ Attack On Israel – Live Universal Awareness Map
Ukraine
- Election Rumors Swirl In Ukraine – Could Zelensky Be Mulling A Summer Poll? – BBC
- Russia and Ukraine Adopt Similar Tactic With Trump: Make Nice and Take It Slow - WSJ
- Zelenskyy Outlines Asks For Countries Willing To Send Forces To Ukraine - Politico
- Ukraine, Russia Complain To Washington About Strikes On Energy Sites – France 24
- Russia Could Face 500% Uranium, Oil Tariffs Under GOP-Backed Proposal - Newsweek
- Plan For Russia To Rejoin Olympics Sparks Disgust In Ukraine - Politico
- Russian Economy Meltdown As Price Of Key Item Surges 50% And 'Industrial Growth Flatlines' – Express (UK)
- Interactive Map: Assessed Control Of Terrain In Ukraine – Institute For The Study Of War
- Map – Tracking Russia’s Invasion Of Ukraine – Live Universal Awareness Map
Other Headlines
- China Warns Trump Over US 'Nuclear Alliances'– Newsweek
- Myanmar Military Junta Declares Temporary Ceasefire To Facilitate Quake Relief Efforts – France 24
- Taiwan's Youth: Ready To Fight? - SCMP
- Battle Over EU Green Rules Shakes von Der Leyen’s Fragile Centrist Coalition - Politico
- Drone Footage Shows Scale Of Greek Island Flooding - BBC
- UK Won't Jeopardise US Trade Talks With Rushed Tariff Response, Reeves Says – Yahoo Finance
- Europe's Plan to Ditch US Weapons Spooks Trump Administration - Newsweek
- Famed Michelin Culinary Guide Awards New Stars To 68 French Restaurants – France 24
- Can China Repeat Its EV Success In Humanoid Robots? – Nikkei Asia
- Javier Milei's Free Market Reforms Are Starting To Pay Off - Reason
- 3-Year-Old Discovers 3,800-Year-Old Treasure During A Family Outing In Israel - NBC
Policy and Politics
Senate Republicans Set To Bypass Parliamentarian On Trump Tax Cuts
Republicans are set to make the audacious play of bypassing the Senate parliamentarian and moving forward with a budget resolution based on a scoring baseline set by Budget Committee Chair Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) that would allow them to argue extending President Trump’s 2017 tax cuts won’t add to the deficit. Senate Republicans are being careful to say they won’t “overrule” the parliamentarian — the Senate’s procedural umpire — but Democrats are already accusing them of going “nuclear” by flouting the Senate’s rules and precedents.
“We think the law is very clear, and ultimately the budget committee chairman makes that determination,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) told reporters Tuesday, arguing Graham has the authority to decide whether extending the Trump tax cuts would add to the deficit and need to be offset by big spending cuts or revenue-raising proposals. The stakes are high as the outcome could determine the size of the tax relief package passed by the Republican-controlled Congress and whether Republicans are able to make the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, the biggest legislative accomplishment of President Trump’s first term, permanent. The biggest procedural question facing Trump’s agenda is whether Republicans can project their impact on future deficits by scoring them as “current policy.”
Trump Preparing Executive Order To Increase Weapons Exports, Sources Say
U.S. President Donald Trump's administration is planning an executive order that would ease rules governing exports of military equipment, and could announce it as soon as Tuesday or Wednesday, four sources familiar with the discussions said. The sources, some in government and some in industry, said they expected the order would be similar to legislation proposed by Trump's national security adviser, Michael Waltz, last year when he was a Republican member of the House of Representatives.
If it had become law, the bill backed by Waltz in 2024 would have amended the U.S. Arms Export Control Act to increase the minimum dollar amounts that trigger a congressional review of arms exports to other countries. They would increase to $23 million from $14 million for arms transfers, and rise to $83 million from $50 million for the sale of military equipment, upgrades, training and other services. The thresholds are higher for members of NATO as well as for close U.S. partners Australia, Israel, Japan, South Korea and New Zealand. For those transactions, Congress must be notified 15 days in advance of a transfer, compared to 30 days for most other countries.
'We're Talking,' Assembly Speaker Says As State Budget Deadline Passes Without Deal
The New York state budget is officially late with no clear end in sight. If you’re looking to gain insight for an office pool or a friendly wager on when it will be completed, don’t ask Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie. Heastie did say talks were moving again after stalling late last week, and the logjam over Gov. Kathy Hochul’s proposed changes to the state’s discovery laws – how evidence is shared with the defense – could be in the early stages of breaking.
Meanwhile, as Republicans railed against their legislative colleagues for the late state budget, Senate Minority Leader Rob Ortt indicated discovery reform and mask restrictions are places where there may be some rare common ground with Hochul. “Most New Yorkers support a mask ban, most people would support, I guarantee you, would support discovery changes,” he said. Hochul’s team has made it clear that getting the budget right is her priority over making the April 1 deadline.
Read more at NY State of Politics
Trump’s First 100 Days
- Trump’s Sweeping Deportations Face Scrutiny – The Dispatch
- States Sue Trump Administration For Rescinding Billions In Covid Related Funding - AP
- 5 Takeaways From Wisconsin Supreme Court Race, Florida Special Elections - Yahoo
- Elon Musk Under Pressure to Wrap Up DOGE After GOP Wisconsin Blowout - Newsweek
- Trump Tells Inner Circle That Musk Will Leave Soon - Politico
- Milbank Reaches Deal With Trump As Divide Among Law Firms Deepens - Reuters
- Trump Uses Power Against Foes Unlike Any Other Modern US President - Reuters
- Eric Adams’ Federal Corruption Charges Dismissed – City & State
- Wisconsin And Florida Elections Provide Early Warning Signs To Trump And Republicans - AP
- Federal Agencies Launch Second — And Likely Final — Offer For Employees To Leave - Politico
- ‘This Isn’t Ideological, It’s Just Math’: Andrew Yang On How To Move The Country Forward – City & State
- The Trump Tracker, Stay Up To Date on the First 100 Days – WSJ
Health and Wellness
‘Top Gun’ Star Val Kilmer Died From Pneumonia At 65. Here Are The Symptoms That Are Hard To Spot In Older Adults
Val Kilmer, celebrated for his 1980s and 90s roles in Top Gun and Batman Forever, died Tuesday at the age of 65. Kilmer passed away from pneumonia, his daughter reported, according to an email sent to the Associated Press. He had previously recovered from a 2014 throat cancer diagnosis. Pneumonia is a serious infection of the lungs that can cause inflammation and a build-up of fluid, making it hard to breathe. The leading cause of pediatric hospitalization and death in children under five, pneumonia is also common in adults.
Dr. Carrie Horn, chief medical officer at leading U.S. respiratory hospital National Jewish Health in Denver and a hospitalist, previously told Fortune that bacteria and viruses most commonly cause the infection. Symptoms of pneumonia include a cough, a fever, shortness of breath, sharp or stabbing chest pain, nausea, and a low appetite, according to the American Lung Association. More severe symptoms include heavy breathing problems, low oxygen levels, long-lasting fevers, and low blood pressure. Older adults, in particular, may experience confusion and weakness and a lower temperature instead of a fever. These symptoms can mirror myriad illnesses, so it’s essential to monitor them and check with a doctor.
Industry News
China’s Tariff-Dodging Move to Mexico Looks Doomed
Chinese companies have kept many goods flowing to the U.S. by manufacturing in Mexico, where products ship to the U.S. tariff-free under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement that Trump negotiated in his first term. Chinese firms have invested billions of dollars in hundreds of Mexican factories that make auto parts, electronics, home appliances, furniture, medical equipment and other products for the American market. To Trump’s dismay, the U.S. trade deficit with Mexico has grown to nearly $172 billion last year from about $78 billion in 2018. His administration now wants to stop what it views as a major loophole in the trade agreement he signed with America’s closest neighbors.
The first Trump administration’s tariffs hit thousands of Chinese products, from car parts to cheese. The levies were intended to boost U.S. manufacturing by making imports more costly. It worked, in part. Imports from China fell sharply, accounting for only 14% of all imported goods in 2023, the lowest share in nearly two decades.But rather than move production to the U.S., many American companies looked to countries that weren’t covered by the tariffs—and Chinese companies saw an opening.
Cybersecurity Blind Spots Put Manufacturers at Risk as They Modernize
America's industrial backbone is at risk as manufacturers rush toward modernization without fully grasping the dangers. The problem lies in the fundamental mismatch between old and new. Industrial control systems (ICS) and SCADA (Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition) networks were built as isolated systems, never meant to connect to the internet. Yet today's drive for digital transformation is forcing these systems online, creating a precarious balance between efficiency and security.
We're already seeing the consequences of this balancing act. Recently, a Fortune 500 global manufacturer faced a potentially catastrophic vulnerability. In an effort to modernize its production facilities, the company integrated its SCADA network with cloud-based analytics and remote monitoring solutions. But in the process, multiple SCADA endpoints were accidentally left exposed to the public internet. Without strong authentication controls or segmentation, these systems became attractive targets for attackers.
DoD Adds $1B for High-Tech USN Sub Program
The U.S. Dept. of Defense issued a $1.06-billion contract modification to General Dynamics Electric Boat for acquisition of long-lead materials related to production of the Virginia-class Block VI submarines. The initial October 2023 contract was valued at $2.2 billion, and modified in August 2024 with a further $1.3 billion. The contract is due to be completed by September 2035, with the largest portion of the work to be completed in Sunnyvale, Calif. Sites in 10 other states are also set to contribute.
The Block VI series, anticipated to cover nine or 10 vessels, will introduce a series of new warfare capabilities, including hypersonic weapon technologies, enhanced stealth capabilities for undersea warfare, and abilities to launch and recover undersea drones. Reports suggest the new Block VI series also will offer advanced undersea data networking systems for real-time information sharing with air, surface, and land platforms. General Dynamics Electric Boat is the program’s prime contractor and lead design yard, which also builds the vessels in a teaming arrangement with Huntington Ingalls Industries’ Newport News Shipbuilding.
Read more at American Machinist
Tesla Reports 336,000 Vehicle Deliveries In First Quarter, 13% Drop From A Year Ago
Tesla reported 336,000 vehicle deliveries in the first quarter of 2025, a 13% decline from a year ago, two days after the electric vehicle company’s stock wrapped up its worst quarter since 2022. Total deliveries Q1 2025 was 336,681 while total production Q1 2025 was 362,615. Investors were expecting Tesla to report deliveries of between 360,000 and 370,000 vehicles, according to StreetAccount. Tesla’s investor relations team sends a company-compiled consensus to select analysts, and said the average estimate was for around 377,590 deliveries. Prediction market company Kalshi on Tuesday released a forecast for Tesla deliveries of 352,000.
During the quarter, Tesla faced planned, partial shutdowns in some of its factories that allowed the company to upgrade manufacturing lines to start producing a redesigned version of its popular Model Y SUV. Tesla has to contend with an onslaught of EV competition and reputational damage. In the first quarter, the company was hit with waves of protests, boycotts and some criminal activity that targeted Tesla vehicles and facilities in response to Musk’s political rhetoric and his work as part of President Donald Trump’s second administration.
Pacific Steel Begins Construction On Steel Manufacturing ‘Micro’ Mill In California
Pacific Steel has broken ground on its 500,000 square foot Mojave Micro Mill in Mojave, California. The company, which produces steel products, has invested in the mill as part of a broader initiative to boost regional economic development and job creation. Nearly 700 new jobs are expected to be created, including positions for electricians, welders, millwrights, and automation specialists.
The Mojave Micro Mill will set new standards in clean steel manufacturing, with the facility featuring an innovative carbon capture system and advanced high-efficiency filtration to reduce emissions. Of the mill’s 174 acres, 63 will be dedicated to on-site renewable energy, helping to support California’s carbon-neutral goals. Additionally, the mill will play a vital role in localizing the supply chain by producing materials critical for public infrastructure, such as steel for roads, bridges, and hospitals.
BMW's New iFACTORY in Hungary Features Cutting-Edge Assembly
BMW Group's Plant Debrecen is approaching completion as its assembly line comes to life, marking a significant milestone in its development. Built exclusively for all-electric vehicle production, the plant incorporates BMW’s iFACTORY innovations from a global production network to optimize efficiency, ergonomics, and sustainability. Key advancements include just-in-sequence delivery to the production line, modularized components, a simplified wiring harness, digital quality checks integrated directly into the production line, and an innovative cockpit assembly.
Debrecen will begin series production of the new BMW iX3 in late 2025, gradually increasing capacity. Notably, it will be the first BMW manufacturing facility to operate entirely without fossil fuels, setting a new benchmark for sustainability in automotive production.
How One Of The Largest Auto Suppliers In The World Is Preparing For Trump's Tariffs
Walking through a Michigan plant past whirring robotic arms and flying sparks, Swamy Kotagiri, the CEO of Canada-based auto supplier Magna (MG.TO), opens new tab reflected on how he is trying to "control the uncontrollable" in the midst of industry-shaking tariffs. "We've had a series of black-swan events," Kotagiri said. "Our industry really prospers with certainty and cadence and stability. And that's what's been missing in the last four years."
Magna has already weathered union strikes, a semiconductor shortage and lower-than-expected EV demand. In the face of tariffs, Kotagiri said Magna is trying to be as flexible as possible, including at its EV structures facility in St. Clair, Michigan, where it cranks out battery enclosures for vehicles like GM's Hummer and Silverado EV. If needed, the supplier can reprogram those swinging robotic arms to assemble frames or engine cradles, Kotagiri said. "The world changed," Kotagiri said. "Flexibility is key. We need to have the footprint, the capacity and the expertise to help." But its success may also depend on smaller suppliers, who are likely even more distressed.
China's Factory Activity Speeds Up On Export Boost, Caixin PMI Shows
China's factory activity expanded at its fastest pace in four months in March, buoyed by stronger demand and robust export orders, a private-sector survey showed on Tuesday, although the escalating U.S. trade war clouds the outlook. The Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing PMI climbed to 51.2 in March from 50.8 in the previous month, surpassing analyst expectations of 51.1. The 50-mark separates growth from contraction.
March's improvement was driven by accelerating new orders, with export orders rising at their fastest pace in 11 months. Analysts attribute the export surge partly to U.S. importers stockpiling Chinese goods ahead of anticipated tariff hikes. Hiring showed signs of improvement with manufacturers adding jobs for the first time since August 2023. Input costs fell for the first time in six months, enabling factories to reduce output prices for the fourth consecutive month. Businesses also added raw material inventories in response to stronger demand. Yet confidence among manufacturers waned slightly compared with February, reflecting caution over external uncertainties.