Member Briefing December 11, 2025

Posted By: Harold King Daily Briefing,

Editor's Note: The Member Briefing will not publish Monday December 15th. We will return on Tuesday the 16th.

U.S. Manufacturers Slow Orders Ahead of Supreme Court Tariff Ruling

U.S. manufacturers are pulling back harder on orders of parts and raw materials because of rising uncertainty around the future of the Trump administration’s signature tariffs, a new survey shows. Buying activity among North American manufacturers, measured in a global poll of 27,000 businesses by GEP and S&P Market Intelligence, in November hit its lowest level since May. U.S. retailers and manufacturers are waiting for the Supreme Court to rule on the constitutionality of the administration’s so-called reciprocal tariffs.

“A lot of folks are just sort of hedging a little bit that these tariffs are going to get rolled back,” said Mike DuVall, global head of supply-chain strategy at GEP, a software and consulting company. The North American findings from the survey are in contrast to companies in the rest of the world where supply-chain activity is weak, but holding up better than in the U.S. GEP says manufacturing demand in Europe is slack and activity in Asia is slowing on loosening demand from China. GEP’s global measure of supply-chain volatility came in at -0.29 for November, a slight increase from October. The same measure for North America read -0.53, down from -0.45 the prior month. A reading below zero indicates supply chains are being underused.

Read more at The WSJ

Machine Tool Orders Spike In Q4 - With Higher-Value, Higher Automated Machining Systems Driving Sales

U.S. machine shops and other manufacturers booked new orders for CNC machining technology worth $538.9 million during October 2025, 9.0% more than the September order total and 40.3% more than the October 2024 result. According to the monthly U.S. Manufacturing Technology Orders report, from which the figures are drawn, new orders for machining equipment (“manufacturing technology”) have totaled $4.47 billion through 10 months of activity - 19.7% more than during January-October 2024. AMT attributed October’s positive direction to renewed tax incentives for capital equipment purchases, as well as consumer and government-backed demand for manufactured goods.

Illuminating this point is the improved demand for CNC machines by contract machine shops (aka “job shops”), the largest buyer segment in the sector. In October, those operations posted their highest order value since March 2023, more than two-and-a-half years. However, the new total represents the same number of machine units recorded for September 2024 - but at -13.2% less in value. The broad trend is toward higher-value machining systems with more advanced automation functions. The October results also saw rising demand for manufacturing technology from aerospace manufacturers, notable as it corresponds to a strike period at Boeing Defense operations for several U.S. fighter jet and missile programs, as well as the extended government shutdown.

Read more at Wells Fargo

Manufacturing Sees 329K Separations In October, 6K Job Cuts In September

The manufacturing industry saw 329,000 job separations in October, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ openings and labor turnover survey results released on Tuesday. That’s about a 0.6% increase compared to September’s separations, which saw about 327,000. Separations include quits, layoffs and discharges, according to the BLS. Despite the subsequent uptick, separations improved compared to the same period last year, when there were 332,000. Job openings have jumped about 6.5% month over month to 410,000, but have dropped year over year to about 10% from 455,000. Hires dropped month-to-month 4.4% to 306,000 compared to September’s 320,000 and also fell YoY.

Manufacturing unemployment jumped 18.7% YoY to 571,000 individuals and job losses accounted for 6,000 in September. Looking at specific sectors, beverage, tobacco, and leather and allied product manufacturing gained the most jobs, with about 3,300. Nonmetallic mineral products and machinery also gained employees, at 1,500 and 1,300, respectively. Some of the hardest-hit sectors saw thousands of job cuts, particularly in the plastics and rubber products sector, which lost approximately 3,500 jobs.

Read more at Manufacturing Dive 

Hudson Valley Lost 1400 Jobs in the 12 Months Ending With September.

Date released Tuesday and delayed by the Federal Government shutdown showed that tor the 12-month period ending September 2025, the private sector job count in the Hudson Valley fell by 1,400, or 0.2 percent, to 827,800. Employment gains were largest in private education and health services (+5,200), financial activities (+1,000) and professional and business services (+1,000). Job losses were greatest in leisure and hospitality (-4,000), other services (-1,900), mining, logging and construction (-1,100), information (-1,000) and trade, transportation and utilities (-700). Manufacturing gained 100 jobs both for the month and the year.

New York lost 42,200 jobs statewide in September but had a gain of 97,700 for the year. Total employment in the state stands at 9,970,400. Manufacturing employment increased by 400 in September but has fallen by 1400 for the year and now stands at 412,300.

Read the labor market profile 

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.25% - Divided Fed Approves Third Rate Cut This Year, Sees Slower Pace Ahead

A Federal Reserve split over where its priorities should lie cut its key interest rate Wednesday, but signaled a tougher road ahead for further reductions. Fulfilling expectations of a “hawkish cut,” the central bank’s Federal Open Market Committee lowered its key overnight borrowing rate by a quarter percentage point, putting it in a range between 3.5%-3.75%. However, the move carried caution flags about where policy is headed from here and featured “no” votes from three members, which hasn’t happened since September 2019.

The 9-3 vote again featured hawkish and dovish dissents – Governor Stephen Miran favored a steeper half-point reduction while regional Presidents Jeffrey Schmid of Kansas City and Austan Goolsbee of Chicago backed holding the line. In Fed parlance, hawks are generally more concerned about inflation and favor higher rates while doves focus on supporting the labor market and want lower rates. This was the third consecutive “no” vote from Miran, who leaves the Fed in January, and the second straight from Schmid. The previous three-dissent meeting also featured a 2-1 divide from members conflicted between the need for tighter and looser monetary policy.

Read more at CNBC

We’re Number 45- New York State Ranked Among the Nation’s Least Affordable

Gov. Kathy Hochul knows what her biggest achievement is. “Stimulating the economy after the pandemic, for sure,” the governor said. The governor’s proclamation of victory on the state’s post-pandemic rebound — achieved, she said, by reducing crime — comes as her Republican opponent Elise Stefanik is running a campaign that attacks her on both affordability and public safety. The upstate Republican, naturally, offered a very different view of Hochul’s legacy. “Kathy Hochul’s biggest accomplishment is earning the title of the Worst Governor in America who has made New York the most unaffordable state in the nation with the highest taxes, energy and utility prices,” Stefanik said in a statement to Playbook.

But wait — when asked for background on Stefanik’s affordability claim, Hochul’s team pointed out Stefanik isn’t technically correct. The governor’s campaign referred Playbook to a list that proved New York isn’t exactly at the bottom, just near the bottom when it comes to affordability. New York was ranked by U.S. News & World Report as the 45th most affordable state in the nation, the governor’s campaign noted in an email.

Read more at Politico and US News

U.S. Consulates in India Mass-Reschedule H-1B and H-4 Visa Appointments

Foreign nationals and U.S. employers relying on visa stamping in India are facing significant new disruptions. Beginning Dec. 8, 2025, U.S. consular posts across India began mass-rescheduling H-1B and H-4 visa interviews that were originally scheduled for on or after December 15, 2025. Many of these interviews are now being pushed to March 2026 or later. Consular posts attribute these sudden changes to the implementation of a new mandatory “online presence review” requirement for H-1B applicants and their dependents, which has significantly reduced the number of interviews that can be conducted each day.

These delays create major risks for both foreign national employees and U.S. employers, including:

  • Extended travel disruptions: Employees who travel abroad for visa stamping may be unable to return to the United States for several months.
  • Project delays and staffing shortages: Employers may face operational gaps if key personnel become stuck abroad.
  • Remote work complications: Not all roles can be performed remotely, particularly in health care, manufacturing, research and regulated industries.

Employees with expired visas or those seeking first-time issuance should postpone travel whenever possible. Affected employees should promptly notify their employers so contingency plans — such as remote work, project reassignment or delayed start dates — can be implemented.

Read more at Harris Beach Murtha

Caring for Your Mental Health During the Holidays

There are a variety of reasons why your days may not be merry and bright around the holiday season. It can be the jam-packed social calendar, deadlines at work, the loss of a loved one, sunless winter days, or all of the above. A 2023 survey by the American Psychological Association found that 89% of U.S. adults feel stressed during the holiday season, with 41% reporting higher stress levels compared to other times of the year. This stress can lead to physical illness, depression, anxiety, and substance misuse. The reasons given include lack of time, financial pressure, gift-giving, and family gatherings.

However, there are ways in which we can prepare ourselves and hopefully deflect some of the increased stress of the holidays. It’s important to realize that we do have more control than we think we do. Below are six common issues that come up this time of year, as well as suggestions from mental health experts for ways to address them.

Read more at Deconstructing Stigma

Upcoming Council Programs

Events

Manufacturing Champions Award Breakfast - Friday May 8, 2026 -7:45 - 10:00 AM. The DoubleTree Poughkeepsie.

Networks

HR Sub Council Meeting Topic TBD, January 14, 2026, 8:15 - 11:00. Selux Corporation, Highland.

Health & Safety Sub Council Meeting Topic TBD, February 12, 2026, 8:30 - 10:30. Location TBD

Insight Exchange On Demand Webinars

Webinars and Seminars

Check back soon

Training

Certificate in Manufacturing Leadership Program Winter Session, Virtual. Supervisor Training Program for Hudson Valley Manufacturers. 7 Courses (15 half day sessions) January 6 - March 11 Via Zoom.

Lean Six Sigma Green Belt This program combines online coursework, with live Zoom sessions, to deliver a flexible and effective learning experience in Lean Six Sigma methodologies. Most Mondays March 2 - June 8 Via Zoom.

(Special Info session for those who are 'Green Belt curious' February 23rd)

Lean Six Sigma: Yellow Belt - Yellow Belt is an approach to process improvement that merges the complementary concepts and tools from both Six Sigma and Lean approaches. 3 Full days - March 9,10 & 11 - DCC Fishkill.

Trade Wars

Refinance Demand For FHA Loans Jumps 24%, As Homeowners Seek The Most Savings They Can

Total applications to refinance a home loan rose 14% last week compared with the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index. Volume was 88% higher than the same week one year ago. The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 58.2% of total applications from 53.0% the previous week. Demand for FHA refinances was up 24% for the week, as the FHA interest rate for 30-year fixed rate loans fell to 6.08%, the lowest level since September 2024.

In contrast, the average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances, $806,500 or less, increased to 6.33% from 6.32%, with points increasing to 0.60 from 0.58, including the origination fee, for loans with a 20% down payment. Applications for a mortgage to purchase a home dropped 2% for the week and were 19% higher than the same week one year ago. Potential buyers are also turning to the FHA for additional savings.

Read more at CNBC

Eli Lilly To Build $6 Billion Manufacturing Plant In Alabama To Help Make Upcoming Obesity Pill, Other Drugs

Eli Lilly on Tuesday said it will spend $6 billion to build a manufacturing plant in Huntsville, Alabama, to help boost production of its closely watched experimental obesity pill and other drugs. It is the third facility in a string of new planned U.S. investments by the drugmaker. Eli Lilly announced in February that it would spend at least $27 billion to build four new domestic manufacturing plants, adding to $23 billion in previous investments since 2020. “Today’s investment continues the onshoring of active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) production, strengthening supply chain resilience and reliable access to medicines for patients in the U.S.,” said Eli Lilly CEO David Ricks in a release.

That added production capacity for Eli Lilly’s obesity pill, orforglipron, is crucial as the company races to file for its approval and tries to maintain its dominance in the booming market for GLP-1s. The company and its chief rival, Novo Nordisk, faced supply shortages for their existing weekly injections after demand skyrocketed in the U.S. in recent years, though they have managed to alleviate those issues. Eli Lily’s pill in November won a priority review voucher from the Food and Drug Administration, which will significantly speed up the regulator’s assessment of the drug to potentially a few months.

Read more at CNBC

Lockheed Plans Factory-of-the-Future

Lockheed Martin entered into a memo of understanding with Hadrian “to accelerate the pace and value of advanced American manufacturing at Lockheed.” According to a joint release, Hadrian will apply its factory-as-a-service approach to install a scalable work cell for machining and inspection at a Lockheed Martin Missiles and Fire Control plant, relying on artificial intelligence and automation systems to increase the production rate for parts needed for missile programs, including PAC-3 MSE®, THAAD, PrSM, and GMLRS, among others.

The production cell will consist of CNC machines, robotics and Hadrian’s manufacturing execution system, which the partners claim will speed Lockheed’s production rate and improve efficiency for a variety of machined parts. Hadrian was established in 2020 to prioritize advancing aerospace and defense system manufacturing, emphasizing capabilities like robotics and a proprietary software “stack” for highly automated production of aerospace and defense systems. Its "factories of the future" are in Torrance, Calif., and Hawthorne, Calif.

Read more at American Machinist

Deere Targets Big Sales Goals As Trump Pushes For Lower Equipment Prices

Deere is targeting a 10% annual sales growth rate over the next five years as the company looks to be more technology-focused, SVP and CFO Josh Jepsen said at the company’s investor day event Monday. That translates to roughly $63 billion by fiscal year 2030 driven by a mix of technological advances, organic growth, market cycle improvements and inflationary pricing, Jepsen said. Deere’s net sales totaled $38.9 billion during fiscal year 2025.

Meanwhile, President Donald Trump said at a farmers’ roundtable that equipment prices from Deere and other companies have “gotten too expensive,” in part because of “environmental excesses” that make the products complicated. Currently, Deere and other tractor makers must adhere to certain emissions regulations. Most recently, the EPA adopted standards that reduce emissions from “nonroad diesel engines” by integrating engine and fuel controls, according to its website. To meet the agency’s Tier 4 standards, implemented in 2004, tractor makers are required to produce new engines with advanced emission control technologies that use ultra-low sulfur diesel.

Read more at Yahoo Finance

Oracle’s Revenue Falls Short Of Wall Street Estimates

Oracle reported revenue of $16.06 billion for its fiscal second quarter, up 14% from the previous year but lower than the $16.21 billion projected by analysts tracked by Bloomberg. The tech firm's closely watched AI segment, Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI), saw a 68% climb in revenue to $4.1 billion, roughly in line with analyst estimates. Meanwhile, Oracle's earnings per share of $2.26 surpassed the $1.64 projected by the Street, marking a jump from EPS of $1.47 in the year-ago period.

The company's AI-fueled RPO, or remaining performance obligations — a measure of future revenue from customer contracts — soared nearly 440% from the prior year and 15% from the first quarter to $523 billion for the three months ended Nov. 30. Oracle principal financial officer Doug Kehring said in a press release that the jump was driven by new commitments from Meta (META), Nvidia (NVDA), and other customers.

Read more at HR Dive

BMW Names Veteran Nedeljkovic As CEO To Tackle China, Tesla

BMW named 30-year company veteran Milan Nedeljkovic as its next CEO on Tuesday to replace long-time chief Oliver Zipse, as the German automaker bets on a new generation of electric cars to counter U.S. tariffs, Chinese competition and Tesla. The move, not unexpected with 61-year-old Zipse already beyond the usual retirement age, will put one of the architects of the new "Neue Klasse" EV range at the helm of the company at a time when cheap Chinese models are flooding the market.

Nedeljkovic, 56, will take over on May 14 and be expected to steer BMW back towards sales growth, particularly in China, the world's biggest auto market. “The success of the Nedeljkovic era will be decided in China," said Moritz Kronenberger, portfolio manager at BMW shareholder Union Investment. He also urged BMW to push ahead on autonomous driving, saying Level 3 capability - where cars handle many tasks but drivers must be ready to take over - needed to be rolled out across the range in future to keep pace with Tesla.

Read more at Reuters

Can Nissan Reverse Its Decade-Long Slide in the U.S.?

When Christian Meunier took over Nissan’s Americas business at the start of the year, he said the company was lost. “There was no North Star. There was no vision. There was no direction,” Meunier said in an interview. The automaker had been slow to make decisions and was complacent with its sinking status in the U.S., he said. One of Meunier’s first actions was to order corporate employees at Nissan’s Tennessee headquarters back to the office four days a week. Collaboration is “very difficult” from home and problems often go unsolved, he said.

Meunier’s task is turning around the company in its biggest market, the U.S. Sales have fallen about 40% over the past decade, and its share of the market has dwindled to 6.4%, from a peak of 8.4% in 2017, according to Cox Automotive. Nissan dealers often struggle with higher inventory levels than their competitors and frequently have to discount products to get them off the lot and earn volume bonuses from the automaker. “It isn’t that their products aren’t valuable, but you kind of train people that this is the cheap one,” said Stephanie Brinley, North America auto analyst at S&P Global Mobility. “Being the cheapest available and the best deal isn’t always the way to generate as much loyalty as you want.”

Read more at The WSJ

Ford Teams With Renault To Bring New Evs To Europe

Ford has teamed up with the Renault Group to bring a new generation of electric passenger cars to European customers. In a joint statement, the companies pledge to launch two new Ford-branded electric models tailored for European markets in a venture expected to boost both companies’ “competitiveness in the rapidly evolving automotive landscape in Europe.” The new models will be based on Renault’s Ampere platform and produced by Renault Group in northern France at Ampere’s ElectriCity’ manufacturing plant.

Ford said it has designed the vehicles in line with its strategy of distinctive driving dynamics, authentic Ford-brand DNA and intuitive experiences. The automakers said these cars mark the first step in a “comprehensive new product offensive for Ford in Europe.” The first vehicle is expected in showrooms in early 2028.

Read more at Ward’s Auto

Hormel Foods Turns To Pricing, Supply Chain Revamp To Battle Meat Inflation

Hormel Foods faced elevated pork and beef prices in fiscal 2025, while turkey supplies were constrained by the avian flu, interim CFO and Controller Paul Kuehneman said on a Dec. 4 earnings call. Cost inflation for pork bellies, pork cutout and pork trim rose 25%, 10% and 20%, respectively, during the year. Beef prices also rose significantly throughout the year, Kuehneman told investors.

Hormel leaned on its multiyear Transform and Modernization initiative to offset some margin pressure in fiscal 2025, which ended Oct. 26, according to Kuehneman. The global branded food company launched the project at the end of fiscal 2023, focusing in part on transforming the supply chain and minimizing portfolio complexity. The initiative has led to increased distribution capacity and optimization of the manufacturing footprint. In fiscal 2026, Hormel expects the initiative to continue offsetting inflationary pressures and to support margin expansion, interim CEO and Director Jeffrey Ettinger said.

Read more at Supply Chain Dive

Quote of the Day

“Gradually it was disclosed to me that the line separating good and evil passes not through states, nor between classes, nor between political parties either -- but right through every human heart -- and through all human hearts. This line shifts. Inside us, it oscillates with the years. And even within hearts overwhelmed by evil, one small bridgehead of good is retained. And even in the best of all hearts, there remains ... an unuprooted small corner of evil.”

Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn - Soviet/Russian Writer from his work 'The Gulag Archipelago.' He was born on this day in 1918.

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