Member Briefing February 17, 2026

Posted By: Harold King Daily Briefing,

Real Wage Growth Surges

Real average hourly earnings for all employees increased 0.3 percent from December to January, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from an increase of 0.4 percent in average hourly earnings combined with an increase of 0.2 percent in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U). Real average weekly earnings increased 0.5 percent over the month due to the change in real average hourly earnings combined with an increase of 0.3 percent in the average workweek. Real wage growth is the increase in wages adjusted for inflation, representing the rise in a worker's actual purchasing power.

From January 2025 to January 2026, real average hourly earnings increased 1.2 percent, seasonally adjusted. The change in real average hourly earnings combined with a 0.6-percent increase in the average workweek resulted in a 1.9-percent increase in real average weekly earnings over this period. Real average hourly earnings for production and nonsupervisory employees increased 0.3 percent from December to January, seasonally adjusted. This result stems from a 0.4-percent increase in average hourly earnings combined with an increase of 0.1 percent in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W).

Read more at the Bureau of Labor Statistics

CPI = 2.4 - US Core CPI Tumbles To Slowest In 4 Years

The Consumer Price Index came in a touch softer than expected in January, rising 0.2% (0.17% unrounded) over the month and 2.4% over the past year. A big drop in gasoline prices (-3.2%) helped to restrain headline inflation, while energy services rose 0.2%. Electricity prices were tame for the second month in a row, although they are still up 6.3% year-over-year, reflecting the continued demand growth in this sector. Utility gas prices were a much stronger 1.0% month-over-month and 9.8% year-over-year.

Excluding food and energy, core CPI rose 0.3% in January and was up 2.5% year-over-year. Core goods prices were roughly unchanged in the month, but this was largely attributable to a 1.8% decline in the volatile used auto category. Excluding used autos, core goods rose 0.36% in January, the strongest reading since February 2023 and a potential sign that tariff-induced inflation is still lingering in the data. Core services inflation was 0.4%, stronger than anticipated. Airfares rose 6.5% in the month, a sharp move particularly on the heels of the 3.8% gain seen in December. The disinflation in primary shelter seems to be continuing nicely, with rents and owners' equivalent rents both rising 0.2%.

Read more at Wells Fargo

Existing Home Sales Fall Back in January

Existing home sales fell 8.4% to 3.91 million unit pace in January. The monthly drop in part looks owed to poor weather across much of the nation which likely discouraged activity. Beyond the monthly volatility, the trend in home sales looks to be gradually improving. The recent uptrend in resales has been driven primarily by lower mortgage rates, which have moved down by 80 bps over the past year and are currently at 6.1%.

Easing home price appreciation is another support. Median prices were up just 0.9% in January, much more modest than in recent years. Low supply is keeping home price appreciation in positive territory, however. Unsold inventory was 1.22 million in January, down 0.8% over the month. Despite rising over the past year, inventory is still well below pre-pandemic averages, implying moderate home price appreciation ahead. Economists at Wells Fargo continue to anticipate resales to post only modest growth (off a very low level) over the next few months as slightly lower mortgage rates, easing home price appreciation and slightly better income growth improve affordability around the margins. A meaningful improvement in affordability (and return to a strong run-rate on sales) still looks far off in the distance.

Read more at Wells Fargo

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Lawmakers Resign Themselves To Lengthy DHS Shutdown

Lawmakers left Washington for a week-long recess Thursday, showing no urgency to avert a shutdown at the Department of Homeland Security that will take effect Saturday morning. The overwhelming sense of resignation reflected the reality that neither Republicans nor Democrats saw an obvious path forward to resolving their differences over President Donald Trump’s immigration crackdown and whether to rein it in as part of legislation to fund DHS. It will likely take weeks for the public to start feeling pain from a lapse in DHS funding, meaning each side will feel limited political pressure to give in right away. TSA screeners are not set to miss paychecks until March, and FEMA coffers are likely full enough to respond to natural disasters for the near future.

Though negotiations between the White House and Senate Democrats continue, the trajectory of talks suggest DHS funding will be lapsed for at least 10 days — meaning the soonest any resolution would be reached is in the political hothouse around Trump’s State of the Union address on Feb. 24. The lack of progress has even raised the prospect that Trump’s speech to Congress might be postponed, and some Democrats are mulling a boycott.

Read more at Politico

Trump Wants The Fed To Cut Rates. Kevin Warsh Has Bigger Plans.

For more than a decade, Kevin Warsh has advocated reining in the Federal Reserve’s pivotal and outsized role in the nation’s financial markets. Now, as President Donald Trump’s choice to lead the Fed, he may finally get the chance to do that, aided by a Treasury secretary with the same goal. And Wall Street is obsessed with finding out what comes next — ‌bracing for the possibility of extensive market disruptions.

Warsh has bemoaned the Fed’s purchase of trillions of dollars in U.S. government debt and bundled mortgages after both the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic, a process that kept longer-term interest rates down to boost the economy and flooded banks with cash reserves. That policy, he says, has distorted the market and enriched Wall Street rather than ordinary Americans by propping up stocks and bonds, which are overwhelmingly owned by the wealthy. But any effort to significantly reduce those holdings runs the risk of spiking interest rates and rattling the funding markets that underpin the financial system. So, to pull off any reform, he knows he will have to proceed with a lot of caution.

Read more at Politico

Plastics Packaging Reduction Bill Will Once Again Face A Climb In The State Assembly

The extended producer responsibility legislation, or EPR, aims to curb the use of several toxic chemicals used in packaging and reduce overall packaging use by 30% over 12 years with advocates pointing to the dangers of microplastics to the human body along with environmental impacts. Those opposed say it’s too tight of a squeeze on businesses. After passing in the state Senate two years in a row but failing to make it to the Assembly floor at the last minute in both cases, those behind the push are hoping to avoid the same fate this year.

The plastics industry and business groups stress that there is support for extended producer responsibility policy in general, but the current bill stifles economic growth both through bans on certain chemicals which they argue are necessary to keep production costs down, as well as an attempt to restrict the use of molecular recycling technology. On the Senate side, the bill appears poised to pass once again, but the upper chamber will likely give the Assembly time to sort things out with the potential for early discussions with Gov. Kathy Hochul’s office.

Read more at NY State of Politics

More Policy and Politics Headlines

More Than A Third Of Patients On Wegovy Pill Are New To GLP-1 Drugs, Study Finds

Among early users of Novo Nordisk's new Wegovy weight-loss pill, 36% had no prior experience taking a GLP-1 medication, a new nationwide study from the health data firm Truveta found. Of patients who started a new pill prescription, 21.1% had previously taken the injectable version of Wegovy and 15.8% switched from Eli Lilly's Zepbound, another injectable GLP-1 medicine, according to Truveta data, opens new tab. The Wegovy pill is the first oral GLP-1 drug approved to treat chronic weight management, creating a new option for patients and providers who might not want an injectable medicine.

The fast uptake among those without prior experience with GLP-1 drugs shows that the oral medication is reaching new patients rather than just taking market share from the injectables, something analysts and investors have been eager to gauge. The data offers an early glimpse of patients on oral Wegovy, which may change over time. For example, more patients currently taking injectable GLP-1 medicines may switch to the pill in the coming weeks, after they finish their current supply, Truveta noted. A rival oral weight-loss medication from Lilly is expected to be approved in April.

Read more at Reuters

Upcoming Council Programs

Events

Manufacturing Advocacy Day - Tuesday February 24, 2026 -7:45 AM - 3:00 PM. The Fort Orange Club, State Capitol Building and Legislative Office Building, Albany.

Manufacturing Champions Award Breakfast - Thursday May 7, 2026 -7:45 - 10:00 AM. West Hills Country Club, Middletown.

Networks

Health & Safety Sub Council Meeting Topic TBD, March 24, 2026, 8:30 - 10:30. Location TBD

Insight Exchange On Demand Webinars

Webinars and Seminars

Check back soon

Training

Effective Business Communication This course is designed to build core communication skills essential in professional settings. Topics covered include identifying appropriate communication channels, honing active listening skills, and mastering techniques like paraphrasing, summarizing, and clarifying for better interpersonal communication. February 17 & 18, 8:30 - 12:30 Via Zoom.

Lean Overview & Simulation This two half-day virtual Lean Foundations course, led by Vin Buonomo from RIT CQAS, provides a comprehensive introduction to Lean principles, tools, and methodologies. March 3 & 4 8:30 - 12:30 Via Zoom.

FILLING FAST Lean Six Sigma Green Belt This program combines online coursework, with live Zoom sessions, to deliver a flexible and effective learning experience in Lean Six Sigma methodologies. Most Mondays March 2 - June 8 Via Zoom.

(Special Info session for those who are 'Green Belt curious' February 23rd)

FILLING FAST Lean Six Sigma: Yellow Belt - Yellow Belt is an approach to process improvement that merges the complementary concepts and tools from both Six Sigma and Lean approaches. 3 Full days - March 9,10 & 11 - DCC Fishkill.

Trade Wars

Who Is Paying for the 2025 U.S. Tariffs? – NY Fed

USMCA Review -Brace For A New Trade Fight With Canada And Mexico – Barron’s

US Commits To 15% Tariff Limit For Taiwan Goods – Supply Chain Dive

Modi-Trump Trade Deal Stirs Backlash From Indian Farmers – Nikkei Asia

Europe’s China Shock Worsens As Trade Deficit Widens - Politico

South Korea Ship Orders Soar As US Fees Steer Business Away From China – Nikkei Asia

Applied Materials To Pay $252.2M To Settle Export Violations – Manufacturing Dive

Senate Republicans Rally Behind USMCA Even As Trump’s Support Wavers - Politico

Trump’s Tariffs: Tracking The Status Of International Trade Actions – Supply Chain Dive

Eurozone Industry Stumbles, But Outlook for 2026 Remains Bright

Eurozone industrial output slipped in December, dragged by a slowdown in Germany, though a recovery is still expected to gather pace this year. Industrial production fell 1.4% on month, compared with a rise of 0.3% in November, according to the European Union’s statistics agency Eurostat. This marked the first contraction in output since August. For 2025 as a whole, industrial production rose 1.5% in the eurozone—the first annual expansion since 2022. Output was also up 0.3% sequentially in the fourth quarter, compared with a 0.1% rise in the prior quarter.

Eurozone industry has faced repeated headwinds in recent years. High energy prices following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have driven up production costs, while a flood of cheaper products from China—and a stronger euro—has eroded the bloc’s competitiveness. In addition to a turbulent outlook for global trade, these challenges have prompted many European countries to reconsider their industrial strategies, with focus shifting from exports to domestic demand. Looking to 2026 manufacturing is expected to contribute positively to growth this year.

Read more at the WSJ

Detroit Automakers Take $50 Billion Hit as EV Bubble Bursts

U.S. automakers have been pumping the brakes on their electric-vehicle businesses for months, and the costs are piling up.  Following years of investments into EV technology, the Detroit Big Three—General Motors, Ford Motor and Jeep-maker Stellantis have announced more than $50 billion in combined write-downs. EV sales fell more than 30% in the fourth quarter, after a $7,500 federal tax credit that had juiced U.S. sales expired in September. Demand cratered for the highest-profile EVs, from Tesla’s Cybertruck to Ford’s much-hyped electric pickup. Automakers expect demand to remain muted.

Automakers’ retreats and massive write-downs have come as Republican lawmakers abolished a lucrative federal tax credit for EVs last fall, while also doing away with federal fuel-efficiency mandates. Even with federal support, EV demand was below expectations. Now, auto companies and battery makers are scaling back. After pouring hundreds of billions of dollars into U.S. manufacturing, they are downsizing investments, canceling projects and pivoting plants to support making more traditional gas-powered vehicles.

Read more at The WSJ

Pratt Wins New F135 Purchasing Contract

Pratt & Whitney has drawn a new Pentagon with a maximum value of $230.56 million for purchasing materials in advance of production of F135 engines for Lot 20 of the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter aircraft. The complete order for Lot 20 calls for “138 propulsion systems,” for the U.S. Air Force, U.S. Marine Corps, U.S. Navy, non-U.S. Dept. of Defense F-35 program partners, and Foreign Military Sales customers. The scope of procurement covers long lead time materials, parts, components, and efforts “necessary to protect the F135 Lot 20 propulsion system delivery schedule,” according to a Pentagon statement.

The F-35 is a series of fighter jets deployed for ground attack and combat, and available in three variants – for the U.S. Air Force, U.S. Marine Corps, U.S. Navy, and for the defense forces of more than a dozen other nations. Eleven months ago the Pentagon began funding long-lead time procurement by Lockheed Martin, the lead contractor for the F-35, as it began production planning for Lot 20. Lots 20 and 21 will incorporate the various hardware and software updates planned as part of the F-35 Block 4 update – which will introduce more than 80 improved capabilities meant to keep the F-35 competitive against emerging threats, including improved sensors, sensor fusion, and expanded weapon capabilities.

Read more at American Machinist

Centrus and Fluor Partner to Advance Major Expansion of Ohio Uranium Enrichment Plant

The subsidiary of U.S. uranium enrichment company Centrus has contracted with engineering firm Fluor for the multibillion-dollar expansion of its uranium enrichment facility in Piketon, Ohio. Under the multiyear contract, Fluor will lead engineering and design of the expanded capacity in Ohio, manage the supply chain and procurement of key materials and services, oversee construction at the site and support the commissioning of the new capacity.

The Piketon project includes substantial production of Low-Enriched Uranium (LEU) “to address [the] commercial LEU enrichment contingent backlog of $2.3 billion and growing demand from existing reactors. Centrus will also build “12 metric tons of High-Assay, Low-Enriched Uranium (HALEU) annual capacity for next-generation reactors.” In January, Centrus announced that it had been selected by the Department of Energy for a $900 million task order to expand its enrichment and centrifuge manufacturing capabilities at Piketon and its facility in Oak Ridge, Tennessee. The company said later last month that it would invest more than $560 million to turn its Oak Ridge centrifuge factory into a “high-rate manufacturing” site.

Read more at Centrus

New 737 MAX Assembly Line to Start

Boeing Commercial Airplanes will start up a new 737 MAX assembly line by midsummer, according to remarks by the 737 program manager to a conference of Boeing suppliers. The fourth assembly line for Boeing’s top-selling aircraft is being established at Everett, Wash., where the manufacturer formerly assembled the 787 Dreamliner until that program was relocated to South Carolina. The cost of the Everett expansion has not been reported.

Boeing recorded 577 new orders for 737 MAX series jets during 2025, and currently has back orders totaling 4,887.  The plan to expand 737 MAX assembly has been in development for several years as Boeing works to fill the extensive order backlog for the narrow-body aircraft. The pending certification of the 737 MAX 10 and 737 MAX 7 models will add to the complexity of program’s supply chain and assembly operations. Some 737 MAX program suppliers indicate Boeing aims to achieve 47 jets per month in 2027.

Read more at American Machinist

The US Air Force Needs To Buy Hundreds Of Sixth-Gen Fighters And Bombers To Be Ready For A China Fight, Airpower Experts Say

The US Air Force will need a lot more next-generation fighter jets and bombers to fight a war against China, former pilots and airpower experts argued in a new report. They said the Air Force will need to procure significantly more of the new and coming B-21 Raider bombers and F-47 fighter jets than it currently plans to buy. Insufficient numbers may force the service to operate conservatively, potentially giving China an edge in such a fight, they warned in a Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies policy paper out this week.

The report said that China's anti-access and area-denial network, together with its natural geography, creates sanctuaries from which its air and missile defenses can fire. The firepower available to Chinese forces within these sanctuaries could pose a threat to US forces, making eliminating them critical to US operations.

Read more at Business Insider

Campbell’s To Shutter Cape Cod Potato Chip Plant

The Campbell’s Company plans to close a potato chip plant in Massachusetts, shifting production to other facilities in an effort to boost efficiency. Campbell’s will cease operations at its Hyannis manufacturing site, which produces Cape Cod and Kettle Brand chips, in April and sell the facility. It is the smallest potato chip plant in Campbell’s network in terms of size and volume. The company said the closure will impact 49 employees.

Cape Cod Chips was founded in Hyannis in 1980, and the plant has been in operation since 1985, according to Campbell’s. The company acquired the brand as part of its nearly $5 billion purchase of Snyder’s-Lance in 2018. As the Cape Cod brand has grown, production has increased at other snack locations, including at plants in Beloit, Wisconsin; Charlotte, North Carolina; and Hanover, Pennsylvania. The Hyannis location produces only 4% of the total annual volume of Cape Cod Chips “and the site no longer makes economic sense for the business,” Campbell’s said. Similar to other food companies such as PepsiCo and General Mills, Campbell’s has closed and consolidated some facilities throughout its network while increasing efficiencies elsewhere.

Read more at Supply Chain Dive

U.S. Military Airlifts Mini Nuclear Reactor in First-Ever Flight

Three C-17 transport planes flew components of the Valar Atomics Ward 250 unfueled nuclear reactor from March Air Reserve Base, Calif., to Hill Air Force Base, Utah, on Sunday. Pentagon and Energy Department officials, reporters and industry representatives sat alongside the reactor module, encased in plexiglass, during the hourlong flight. Proponents of the technology say the new systems can deliver megawatts of power safely and cheaply, eliminating fuel supply vulnerabilities and providing reliable, scalable energy to remote locations. But some critics say the Trump administration’s fast tracking of the untested reactor designs, built by private companies, could pose safety issues.

The flight on Sunday “gets us closer to deploying nuclear power when and where it is most needed to give our nation’s war fighters the tools to win,” said Michael Duffey, the undersecretary of defense for acquisition and sustainment. Valar Atomics, which funded the flight, will test the Ward 250 at a facility near Hill Air Force Base, according to CEO Isaiah Taylor. Testing will begin at 250 kilowatts, and the system is ultimately capable of 5 megawatts, which is enough to power 5,000 homes. The reactor uses TRISO fuel, uranium kernels in ceramic layers, rather than uranium. It also uses helium coolant, instead of water.

Read more at the WSJ

Why Winter in the U.S. Is Crazy This Year, in Five Charts

If this winter feels strange, it’s not in your head. In the eastern U.S., residents have been suffering through one of the most frigid seasons in recent memory. Yet for much of the West, temperatures have been unusually mild and snowpack levels are at record lows. Here’s a look at this record-setting winter, in five charts.

Read more at the WSJ

Energy Market Update

Daily Market Update Feb 16, 2026

The Mar ’26 natural gas contract is trading down $0.23 at $3.01. The Mar ‘26 crude oil contract is up $0.21 at $63.10.

Read more at NRG

Learn more about the Council of Industry Energy Buying Group

Quote of the Day

“Nothing so conclusively proves a man's ability to lead others as what he does from day to day to lead himself.”

Thomas J. Watson - American Businessman and Chairman and CEO of IBM Corporation who was born on this day in 1874.

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