Member Briefing November 12, 2026

Posted By: Harold King Daily Briefing,

NFIB: Small Business Optimism Remains Steady, Uncertainty Declines in October

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for October was 97.8, down 0.1 points from September and slightly below the 53-year average of 98.0. The Uncertainty Index fell 6 points from September to 84, the lowest level since December 2025.

 

  • The percent of small business owners reporting the quality or availability of labor as their top operating problem decreased 1 point to 25%, making it the top reported issue for the fourth consecutive month. The current reading is 13 points above the historical average of 12%.
  • The second top issue in October was taxes, which rose notably from September. Twenty-one percent of small business owners reported taxes as their single most important problem, up 10 points from September and the highest level since May 2021.
  • A seasonally adjusted 36% of all owners reported job openings they could not fill in the current period, up 4 points from September and 12 points above the historical average.
  • In October, expectations for better business conditions improved, after two months of deterioration. A net 8% (seasonally adjusted) of owners expect better business conditions over the next six months, up 2 points from September and still above its average.
  • Eleven percent (seasonally adjusted) reported that it is a good time to expand their business, up 4 points from September.
  • Inflation pressures grew in October as both price measures increased. A seasonally adjusted net 33% of owners reported raising average selling prices (up 2 points), and a net 37% plan to increase prices, up 6 points from September and the highest level since July 2022.
  • In October, a net 13% of owners reported paying a higher interest rate on their most recent loan, up 5 points from September. This is the highest level since August 2024.

 

Read more at NFIB

Machine Tool Orders Topped $1B in September

U.S. machine shops and other manufacturers booked orders totaling more than $1 billion for new capital equipment during September, setting a new monthly record for investments tracked by AMT - the Assn. for Manufacturing Technology in its U.S. Manufacturing Technology Orders series. The $1.007 billion in new orders for September represent a 38.0% rise over the August order total, and a 101.7% improvement over September 2025. The September totals improved by 22.5% over the previous monthly record set in December 2025, and represent the seventh consecutive month for new order totals above $500 million, the longest such streak on record for the USMTO.

The new totals include the orders collected by exhibitors at IMTS 2026, September 14-19, and the unit count (3,471 new machines) is the highest for any month since September 2014. AMT - which has been tracking the rise in the average value of machine tool orders, as a result of economic inflation and the additional cost of automation in manufacturing - reported that the gap between order values and units ordered began to narrow during September: the number of units ordered grew at the fastest rate since July 2024, relative to the change in value, AMT noted. In August AMT noted that new orders from contract machine shops (or job shops) began to increase, and that continued with the September results. Job shop orders set a new monthly record in September, 25% ahead of August 2026, and the machine unit total was the highest since September 2014.

Read more at American Machinist

US Mortgage Rates Fall for Fourth Week, Lifting Home Purchases

US mortgage rates declined for a fourth straight week, boosting home-purchase applications by the most since mid-April and giving a tiny spark to the deflated housing market. The contract rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage fell 9 basis points to 7.21% in the week ended Nov. 6, according to data released Wednesday by the Mortgage Bankers Association. Borrowing costs have fallen nearly 30 basis points from an almost two-year high of 7.5% early last month, although they remain prohibitively high for many Americans

A gauge of loan applications for home purchases jumped 7.5%, marking just the second weekly increase since the end of August. The group's refinance index rose 4.5%. The measure, which has advanced three straight weeks, is still near the lowest level since January 2025. While the drop in rates is welcome news for the housing market, it may take a sustained decline to motivate potential buyers. Contract signings on previously owned homes dropped to a record low in September following a rapid run-up in mortgage rates during the month.

Read more at Yahoo Finance

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Defense Industry Takes Aim At ‘Right To Repair’ As NDAA Decision Looms

When Congress returns this week, leaders of the armed services committees will face a looming decision on “right to repair” legislation aimed at giving troops the ability to fix their equipment while deployed, but industry groups say the measure could have grave implications for intellectual property. Both the House and Senate versions of the fiscal 2027 National Defense Authorization Act contain similar provisions that would give the Defense Department “default government purpose rights” for technical data and software — a paradigm under which the department has access to technical data, can use it to repair equipment, and can share it with third parties doing work on government contracts.

Industry organizations contend those new regulations would let the government pass on trade secrets and other proprietary information to competitors, eroding a company’s technical edge. Technical data can include engineering drawings, manufacturing specifications and equipment manuals, while software rights can cover source code and related documentation. Under government purpose rights, the Pentagon would be able to share that information with other contractors for government work — excluding for commercial purposes.

Read more at Breaking Defense

Democrats Plan to Use NDAA and a December Funding Deadline to Shrink Trump's $1.5T Defense Budget

Democrats won both chambers of Congress during a massive election day last Tuesday and have already turned their new legislative power against President Donald Trump's $1.5 trillion defense budget request. Party lawmakers plan to shrink it by rewriting the annual defense policy bill and by letting a Dec. 11 government funding deadline push the real decisions into January and when they take control, according to their public statements. "The budget ultimately passed by Congress will likely fall short of the Trump administration's ambitions," Travis Sharp of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments wrote in a Nov. 4 paper.

Trump's Fiscal Year 2027 request splits into roughly $1.15 trillion in regular defense funding and another $350 billion the White House wants passed through reconciliation, a party-line process the incoming majorities can simply refuse to take up. Congress has enacted neither piece. The National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), the policy bill that sets the Pentagon's blueprint, passed the House in July but failed a procedural vote in the Senate, and the government has run on a stopgap since the fiscal year began Oct. 1.

Read more at Military.com

As Higher Prices Seep Into Broader Economy, Fed Officials Consider Faster Hikes

More evidence this week of hot inflation in the U.S. was unpleasant news for the Federal Reserve, not to mention consumers: Rising prices may be spreading beyond the one-time shocks from tariffs and high gas prices into the wider economy, meaning that mortgages, credit cards and other forms of borrowing are likely to become increasingly expensive. Tuesday’s consumer price index report showed broadly rising costs across a range of goods and services, some with little connection to more expensive oil and gas or surging investment in artificial intelligence data centers, another factor blamed for worsening inflation.

The potential consequences of the new inflation data emerged immediately. Two Fed officials suggested Tuesday that the central bank may have to hike its key interest rate more quickly to tame inflation. Bigger or faster hikes by the Fed would mean that buying a house or a car, or paying off a credit card would become a steeper hill to climb, with millions of Americans already struggling to make ends meet.

Read more at AP

More Policy and Politics Headlines

Measles Is Surging In The U.S. — And Outbreaks Can Cost Millions

The U.S. is expected to lose its official measles elimination status following a review by the Pan American Health Organization this week, after cases ratcheted to recent highs this year. More than 5,100 measles cases have been reported nationwide in 2026 as of early November, marking the country’s worst outbreak in more than three decades. Eight deaths associated with the disease have been confirmed by states so far in 2026: six in Pennsylvania, one in New York and one in Wisconsin.

Based on this year’s case count, a new tool developed by researchers at Johns Hopkins University estimates an economic cost of nearly $83 million for the outbreaks. That total includes $56 million in public health response costs, almost $25 million in lost productivity and more than $1.8 million in direct medical expenses. The tool also estimates that 2025 measles outbreaks in the U.S. — which involved 2,289 confirmed cases nationwide – carried an economic cost of more than $37 million.

Read more at CNBC

Upcoming Council Programs

Events

SOLD OUT Annual Luncheon and Expo - Friday November 20, 11:00 AM - 2:00 PM. The Grandview, Poughkeepsie.

Insight Exchange - On Demand Webinars

The Orange County Foreign Trade Zone (FTZ): Duty Elimination, Reduction Deferral - Presented by Steve Gross, Orange County Economic Development

C3POA - Key Perpectives on your CMMC Compiance Journey - Presented by Nick DeLena, PKF O'Connor Davies.

CMMC for Legacy Equipment: Securing Specialized Assets with Zero Trust Micro-Enclaves - Presented by Marc Hoover, Trout Software.

See previous episodes here!

Training

Lean Overview and Simulation, (A CML Course) November 19, 8:30 - 4:30. SUNY Orange Newburgh.

Risk Management: Enviroment Health and Safety, (A CML Course) November 19, 8:30 - 4:30. SUNY Orange Newburgh.

Strategies for Motivation, Coaching and Managing Difficult People, (A CML Course) November 19, 8:30 - 4:30. SUNY Orange Newburgh.

Trade Wars

Nvidia Board Weighs Ousting CEO Jensen Huang Amid Affair Scandal

Nvidia's board has been meeting to discuss whether to oust CEO Jensen Huang amid reports of two extramarital affairs, one with a woman alleged to be a Chinese spy. He also had an affair with Kimberly Powell, a senior executive at Nvidia who runs the company’s healthcare business, according to a person familiar with the matter. With no obvious successor, Huang's potential departure would leave a leadership vacuum at the roughly $4 trillion chipmaker.

Huang, 63, owns about 3.6% of Nvidia's stock and has dozens of direct reports, underscoring the tight control he maintains over the company he co-founded. Nvidia shares fell nearly 7% in US premarket trading on Thursday, adding to a decline that has wiped out about $600 billion in market value this week. US President Donald Trump has called the Nvidia chief 'an honorable guy', while congressional leaders call for investigations into national security risks.

Read more at Reuters

CoreWeave Beats On Revenue And Lifts Guidance, Easing AI Slowdown Concerns

CoreWeave reported better-than-expected quarterly revenue and lifted its 2026 guidance on Tuesday, showing that demand for artificial intelligence infrastructure remains strong despite concerns of a market slowdown. The stock advanced in extended trading. The earnings announcement lands at a particularly volatile moment for CoreWeave and its neocloud peers, as the market sours on the AI trade and as Nvidia. Loss per share was 95 cents adjusted vs. $1.16 expected and revenue was: $3.66 billion vs. $3.55 billion expected.

CoreWeave’s revenue soared 168% from about $1.36 billion a year earlier, according to a statement. The company recorded a net loss of $709 million, or $1.27 per share, compared to a net loss of $110 million a year earlier. Adjusted earnings exclude stock-based compensation. Executives pushed up their forecast for 2026. They now see $1.275 billion to $1.375 billion in adjusted operating income on $13 billion to $13.3 billion in revenue. Analysts surveyed by Visible Alpha were looking for $1.07 billion in adjusted operating income, and analysts polled by LSEG had expected $12.86 billion in 2026 revenue.

Read more at The Hill

TSMC Approves Up to $1 Billion Investment Plan in Anthropic & OpenAI, Will Make $41 Billion Further Capital Investments

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. on Tuesday said its board approved investments of up to $500 million each in Anthropic’s common shares at the IPO price and OpenAI’s preferred stock. Anthropic said Tuesday that it will sell shares at $70 to $78 apiece in its initial public offering, aiming to raise more than $61 billion at the midpoint of the range. Its board also approved $40.93 billion in capital expenditure covering advanced semiconductor manufacturing, advanced packaging, plant construction and 2027 research and development investments.

The Claude maker also plans to raise $26 billion from big investors including Alphabet’s Google, Advanced Micro Devices and TSMC 2330 4.81%increase; up pointing triangle, its filing showed. TSMC’s move to buy stakes in the industry’s most influential model developers shows its desire to broaden its AI exposure beyond manufacturing advanced chips to power AI computing infrastructure. Analysts also cautioned that the distinction between investors, suppliers and customers is becoming more ambiguous in the AI sector, making it harder to assess true demand.

Read more at The WSJ

Boeing Jet Deliveries Drop 14% In October, Plans Job Cuts

Boeing is set to reduce its workforce by about 5% in the coming weeks in order to scale back its production rate as it works through assembly bottlenecks, particularly for the 737 MAX program. The layoffs are expected to affect the Boeing narrow-body assembly operations in Renton, Wash., though assembly rates for the 787 Dreamliner wide-body aircraft reportedly have been slowed too. No estimate on the number of jobs at risk has been provided. The downsizing will begin to be implemented in December, through natural attrition followed by involuntary layoffs.

Boeing Commercial Airplanes delivered 161 aircraft in Q3 2026, and 524 YTD. It closed the period with backlog of 6,976 aircraft orders, which it estimates represent a value of $612 billion. Over the past 12 months Boeing has been expanding 737 MAX production to begin filling an extensive backlog of orders. After restricting the production rate during 2024-2025, the Federal Aviation Administration last year authorized Boeing to increase its output to 47 aircraft per month. Boeing has consistently targeted a higher output, but recently Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg said the higher target rate of 52 jets/month would not be reached until the second half of 2027.

Read more at American Machinist

Unpacking the DOJ’s Investigation Of Containerboard Producers

The bombshell news last week that the U.S. Department of Justice is investigating containerboard producers over pricing suggests that a similar civil case brought last year in the Northern District of Illinois is not frivolous, according to a legal expert. Several companies — International Paper, Packaging Corporation of America and Smurfit Westrock — disclosed in filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission that they were subpoenaed by DOJ in late September. The subpoenas stem from a grand jury investigation in the Northern District of Illinois regarding the pricing and sale of containerboard in the United States.

Sometimes a civil complaint can spark the interest of DOJ’s Antitrust Division, “as appears to be the case here,” explained Alexander Wentworth-Ping, attorney at Schlam Stone & Dolan. The containerboard companies that DOJ subpoenaed appear to align with the defendants in the civil case. Other actions that might prompt the DOJ to get involved are formal complaints or press coverage. Subpoenas often are issued “later in the investigation, which suggests to me that the Antitrust Division has probably already gotten information from other third parties,” he said. While it’s impossible to know for sure due to the sealed nature of these cases, he said DOJ employees “probably already have been conducting an investigation for a while that they have at least some documents for.”

Read more at Packaging Dive

Mars To Invest $1.4B In US Manufacturing, Operations In 2027

Mars plans to invest an estimated $1.4 billion into its U.S. manufacturing and operations footprint in 2027, the most the Cheez-It and Snickers maker said it has invested in a single year. The Virginia-based company said the investments “serve as an accelerator for Mars growing portfolio of snacking brands” that will allow it to scale products and boost innovation. The money will also enable it to modernize existing facilities, improve its supply chain and improve its geographical reach. Mars has been expanding its portfolio beyond its core of candy and gum. Most recently, Mars dolled out $36 billion to buy Kellanova, creating a snacking giant with a portfolio including M&Ms, Extra gum, Pringles and Pop-Tarts.

Claus Aagaard, Mars’ CFO, said 94% of the company’s products sold in the U.S. are made here. “Our continued investments build for the future – expanding our manufacturing capabilities, accelerating growth across our portfolio and services and ensuring we can meet the evolving needs of consumers for generations to come,” he added. Mars estimated it employs 80,000 people in the U.S. alone. The food maker added that with 15 new facilities added following the Kellanova acquisition, Mars will continue to make strategic manufacturing investments to modernize its U.S. facilities.

Read more at Manufacturing Dive

Lockheed Martin Plans $420 Million Missile Manufacturing Expansion In Arkansas

Lockheed Martin plans to expand its missile manufacturing operations in Camden, Ark., with a $420 million investment expected to create 650 new full-time jobs over five years. The company, which manufactures aerospace, defense and advanced technology systems, will increase production capacity for two missile programs. Lockheed Martin's Camden Operations facility spans 2.2 million square feet across 2,427 acres in Highland Industrial Park. The existing site manufactures seven U.S. Department of War programs. It has delivered more than 700,000 missiles and rockets over the past four decades.

“Lockheed Martin is investing at unprecedented speed and scale to expand manufacturing capacity and deliver the critical capabilities our warfighters need, faster,” said Adam Bailey, Camden site general manager at Lockheed Martin, in a November press release. “For more than four decades, Camden has played a vital role in strengthening our nation’s defense, and this investment marks another significant step in accelerating production, advancing next-generation manufacturing and creating 650 new jobs.

Read more at Plant Services  

GE Vernova To Spend $34.5M Expanding Louisiana Transformer Manufacturing Capacity

GE Vernova will invest $34.5 million to expand transformer manufacturing operations at its existing Shreveport, Louisiana, facility to meet rising demand for electrical grid equipment, the company announced Tuesday. The investment is expected to increase the workforce at the factory by nearly 30%, with production reaching full capacity by 2028, it said.

“Electricity demand is growing, and transformers are part of the critical grid equipment essential to delivering the power our customers and modern economies depend on,” Philippe Piron, CEO of GE Vernova’s electrification segment, said in a press release. The state of Louisiana offered the company what it called a “competitive” incentive package that includes a $300,000 “performance-based grant for site and infrastructure improvements,” the release said. The company also said it expects to participate in the state’s Quality Jobs and Industrial Tax Exemption programs.

Read more at Utility Dive  

BMW Announces New Battery Supply Deals For US, Europe

BMW Group has announced a supply agreement with Samsung SDI and LG Energy Solution for cells used for its sixth-generation high-voltage batteries, the automaker announced in a press release. LG Energy Solution will supply battery cells for BMW electric vehicles in the North America region, while Samsung SDI will supply cells for EVs manufactured in Europe, beginning in the late 2020s.

“Our global partner network with leading cell manufacturers ensures that we have a resilient, flexible and competitive battery cell supply,” Hendrik Lang, head of purchasing and quality of high-voltage batteries at BMW, said in a statement. Having regional infrastructure to produce batteries near its existing facilities helps secure jobs according to Lang, while reducing the geographical distances between suppliers, batteries manufacturing facilities and vehicle assembly plants boosts the automaker’s competitiveness.

Read more at Ward’s Auto

Daily Market Update Nov 04, 2026

The December '26 natural gas contract is trading up $0.01 at $2.90. The December '26 crude oil contract is down $2.70 at $93.39.

Read more at NRG

Learn more about the Council of Industry Energy Buying Group

Quote of the Day

But only love

can break your heart

Try to be sure

right from the start

Yes only love

can break your heart

What if your world

should fall apart?”

Neil Young - Canadian Singer Songwriter from his song 'Only Love Can Break Your Heart.' He was born on this day in 1945.

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