Member Briefing November 4, 2025

Posted By: Harold King Daily Briefing,

ISM: Manufacturing Contraction Spreads as Slump Stretches into Eighth Month

American manufacturing contracted for the eighth month in a row, a new survey showed, and there appeared to be no end in sight because of high tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. A closely followed manufacturing index slipped to 48.7% in October from 49.1% in the prior month, the Institute for Supply Management said Monday. Any number below 50% signals contraction. The ISM surveys executives every month about how their businesses are doing. And the complaints came through loud and clear: High and constantly shifting tariffs have raised costs, depressed sales and pressured companies to lay off employees. Here are a sample of the comments:

  • “Business continues to remain difficult, as customers are cancelling and reducing orders due to uncertainty in the global economic environment and regarding the ever-changing tariff landscape.” (Chemical Products)
  • “In general, business is really strained. Money is sitting tighter, and geopolitical changes add to the uncertainty/risk factor. Even medical fields are feeling the pressure.” (Miscellaneous Manufacturing)
  • “Tariffs continue to be a large impact to our business. The products we import are not readily manufactured in the U.S., so attempts to reshore have been unsuccessful. Overall, prices on all products have gone up, some significantly. We are trying to keep up with the wild fluctuations and pass along what costs we can to our customers.” (Machinery)
  • “The tariff trade war has negatively impacted agricultural export markets, driving down demand and price. This negatively impacts farmer revenue and the likelihood of farmers investing in new equipment.” (Machinery)
  • “The unpredictability of the tariff situation continues to cause havoc and uncertainty on future pricing/cost. But even with the tariffs, the cost to import in many cases is still more attractive than sourcing within the U.S. Challenges with tariffs on production equipment necessary for internal production makes it difficult to justify expansion of capacity.” (Computer & Electronic Products)
  • “Volatility in some of our highly exposed commodity markets has tempered a bit, thanks to improved weather conditions and overall downward pressure on pricing. Tariffs continue to remain difficult to quantify, manage and deal with in general, since they continue to impact us day-to-day and our bottom line.” (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)
  • “Wonder has turned to concern regarding how the tariff threats are affecting our business. Orders are down across most divisions, and we’ve lowered our financial expectations for 2025.” (Chemical Products)

Read more at Investing Live and Wells Fargo

Big Manufacturing Economies Struggle As US Tariffs Hit Order Books

The world's big manufacturing economies struggled to fire up in October, business surveys showed on Monday, as weak U.S. demand and President Donald Trump's tariffs hit factory orders.

  • Euro zone factory activity stagnated as new orders flatlined and headcount fell, its purchasing managers' index (PMI) showed, and its exporting powerhouse Germany showed little sign of recovery with production growth slowing again. France's manufacturing sector remained weak, while Italy's contracted marginally. Spain stood out among the bloc's big four economies as its factories expanded at a faster pace than in September.
  • Manufacturing activity in China grew at a slower pace last month while it fell in South Korea, with export orders in both countries declining, private-sector PMIs for October showed on Monday.
  • India's factory activity sped up, driven by brisk domestic demand that helped offset the hit to exports.
  • Elsewhere in Asia, continued manufacturing declines were seen in Malaysia and Taiwan, while Vietnam and Indonesia saw growth in their manufacturing sectors pick up.
  • In Britain factories had their strongest month in a year, but the recovery was driven by a one-off bounce from the restart of production at carmaker Jaguar Land Rover after it was hit by a cyberattack.

Read more at Reuters

'K-Shaped' - US Economy At Risk As Lower-Income Consumers Get Squeezed

The U.S. consumer's durability as a prop for the economy may be tested in coming weeks as family budgets, particularly among the less affluent, are stressed by rising healthcare costs, the potential loss of federal food benefits, and a wobbly job market outlook that is already taking a toll on earnings. "The American economy is a $30 trillion dynamic and resilient beast, but it's going to face a test here at the turn of the year," said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US, with "adverse policy shocks emanating from Washington and the change in behavior among corporates who hoarded labor for the past four to five years. ... That was never an indefinite behavior. We're going to see migration up in the unemployment rate."

The coming shocks to household budgets will take place against a backdrop of still-low unemployment and consumer spending that, at least as of August, was growing at a 2.7% annual rate, slower than last year but still expanding. For now, however, policymakers at the Federal Reserve and elsewhere will lack updated government reports to understand how the economy is adapting at a critical moment, with the shutdown not only turning off benefits but also the flow of data.

Read more at Reuters

Middle East

Ukraine

Other Headlines

New Hope And Pain As Shutdown Reaches Record

Fresh hints of progress toward ending the shutdown are surfacing in the Senate, as pressure points pile up and the federal funding lapse is set to become the longest ever later tonight (Tuesday). Bipartisan talks among rank-and-file senators appear to be headed in the right direction, according to four people granted anonymity to discuss the talks. The White House has warned it will not meet with Democrats until they open the government but Trump officials are in touch with the Republican senators involved in the talks, according to two of the people.

Tuesday is also Election Day in several states, with both parties closely watching the outcomes in the gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey, as well as the mayoral contest in New York City and a congressional redistricting referendum in California. Some Republicans are betting their Democratic colleagues will be more willing to vote for a funding patch once those major political events are behind them.

Read more at Politico

New York's Fiscal Outlook Improves In Mid-Year Update As Impact Of Federal Budget Bill Looms

The state released its mid-year budget update this week revealing a $26.8 billion cumulative budget gap by 2029. That’s better than what was expected earlier this year thanks to hotter than expected tax receipts from Wall Street, but overall the outlook is a mixed bag as improvement is offset by the impact of the federal spending bill in Washington. The state’s out-year budget gaps have shrunk since the first quarterly update thanks to those higher than expected tax receipts. The out-year budget gap for 2027 went from $7.5 billion earlier this year to $4.2 billion. For 2028, a $12.1 billion gap shrunk to $10 billion, and projections for fiscal year 2029 dropped from a $14.6 billion gap to $12.6 billion.

The state Division of Budget reported that tax receipts are projected to continue to grow 3.4% on average through 2029. That’s a bump from 2.6% in the enacted state budget. When it comes to the impact of cuts coming from Washington, the federal budget bill is expected to deal an $800 million blow during the current fiscal year. As expected, that will grow to $3.4 billion next year, and more than $4 billion by FY 2029.

Read more at NY State of Politics

Tariffs Are Trump’s Favorite Foreign Policy Tool. The Supreme Court Could Change How He Uses Them

This week, the Supreme Court hears arguments on whether the Republican president has overstepped federal law with many of his tariffs. A ruling against him could limit or even take away that swift and blunt leverage that much of his foreign policy has relied on. Trump increasingly has expressed agitation and anxiety about the looming decision in a case he says is one of the most important in U.S. history.

The Justice Department, in its defense of the tariffs, has highlighted the expansive way Trump has used them, arguing that the trade penalties are part of his power over foreign affairs, an area where the courts should not second-guess the president. If the court constrains Trump, it could leave foreign governments questioning whether to try to renegotiate trade agreements recently struck with the Trump administration, experts said. But there are political realities at play too, because reneging on deals could affect other foreign policy or economic priorities.

Read more at The AP

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Is COVID-19 During Pregnancy Linked To Autism? What A New Study Shows, And What It Doesn't

A large study from Massachusetts found that babies whose mothers had COVID-19 while pregnant were slightly more likely to have a range of neurodevelopmental diagnoses by age 3. Most of these children had speech or motor delays, and the link was strongest when the mother was infected late in pregnancy and in boys. Researchers at Massachusetts General Hospital examined medical records from more than 18,000 mothers and their children born between March 2020 and May 2021, before vaccines were widely available. Because everyone giving birth during that period was tested for COVID, the team could clearly see which pregnancies were exposed.

The increase in risk was small for any one child, but because millions of women were pregnant during the pandemic, even a small increase matters. The study doesn't prove that COVID-19 infection during pregnancy causes autism or other brain conditions in the fetus, but it suggests that infections and inflammation during pregnancy can affect how a baby's brain grows, something scientists have seen before with other illnesses. It's reason to help pregnant women avoid COVID-19 and to keep a close eye on children who were exposed in the womb.

Read more at CBS News

Upcoming Council Programs

Events

2025 Annual Luncheon - November 21, 2025 -11:00 AM Expo, 12:00 Lunch. The Grandview, Poughkeepsie.

Networks

Environment Health & Safety Sub Council Meeting Topic TBD, November 13, 2025, 8:30 - 11:00. MPI, Poughkeepsie.

HR Sub Council Meeting Topic TBD, January 14, 2026, 8:15 - 11:00. Selux Corporation, Highland.

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Training

2 Seats Left Lean Six Sigma: Yellow Belt - Yellow Belt is an approach to process improvement that merges the complementary concepts and tools from both Six Sigma and Lean approaches. 3 Full days - November 12, 13 & 14 - DCC Fishkill.

Trade Wars

Trump Says He’ll Allow China-Nvidia Deals Except For ‘Most Advanced’ Blackwell Chips

President Donald Trump on Sunday said he will allow Nvidia and Beijing to make deals on AI chips, but said he will not allow Nvidia’s most advanced semiconductors to be sold to China, in a comment that comes days after he signaled willingness to discuss export controls on Nvidia’s flagship Blackwell chips. In a “60 Minutes” interview that aired on CBS on Sunday night, Trump was asked about China's interest in buying “the world's most advanced semiconductors,” especially Nvidia's flagship Blackwell AI chips.

Trump said he will let Beijing “deal with Nvidia,” noting that the American AI chipmaker is the “prime company in the world for that” and added: “We will let them deal with Nvidia, but not in terms of the most advanced.” “The most advanced, we will not let anybody have them other than the United States,” the president said.

Read more at Forbes

Kimberly-Clark To Acquire Tylenol Owner Kenvue For $48.7 Billion, Creating Consumer Health Giant

Kimberly-Clark announced Monday it’s struck an agreement to buy Kenvue in a deal valued at $48.7 billion that would create a consumer staples giant. The deal is a combination of cash and stock and totals about $40 billion on an equity basis, excluding the impact of debt. The combined company would bring together brands like Huggies and Kleenex with the likes of Band-Aid and Tylenol. It would include 10 billion-dollar brands, the companies said in a news release. The acquisition would be one of the largest on Wall Street this year.

Kimberly-Clark and Kenvue expect about $1.9 billion in cost synergies from the transaction to be realized in the first three years following the deal’s close. The acquisition comes as Kimberly-Clark and the broader consumer packaged goods industry try to address shifting demand and shopping behavior, often through deal-making and divestitures. Even with Kimberly-Clark’s blockbuster acquisition, P&G still dwarfs its rival in both enterprise value and annual revenue. P&G has a market cap of about $350 billion.

Read more at CNBC

Ford To Transfer Workers, Spend $60 Million, Hire 100 To Blunt Novelis Fire Impact

Ford Motor Company announced late last monthy it would shift production to meet demand for its gas-powered and hybrid F-series trucks by transferring workers and hiring about 100 as it seeks to stabilize after a fire at its main aluminum supplier. According to a statement, assembly of the F-150 Lightning is and will remain paused as a result of the reassignments. The electric truck is less profitable for Ford, the company said and uses more aluminum.

To facilitate the production increase, Ford says it will transfer all hourly employees at its Rouge Electric Vehicle Center next door to form a third shift of 1,200 workers at Dearborn Truck Plant, add 90 workers at its Dearborn Stamping Plant and 80 employees at its Dearborn Diversified Manufacturing Plan, and hire 100 new workers at its Kentucky Truck plant. The Kentucky Truck Plant will also receive $60 million in extra investment for training as the company looks to scale production there by one extra job per hour, or 5,000 extra trucks annually.

Read more at Plant Services

Boeing F-47 Fighter To Set New Stealth Standard

The term "stealth supremacy" describes the Boeing F-47's next-generation, all-aspect, broadband stealth capabilities, which will be far more sophisticated than those of existing fighters like the F-35. The goal is for the US Air Force's F-47 to achieve superior stealth performance, or "stealth++," enabling it to penetrate deep into enemy territory without being detected. It will have all new, advanced radar-absorbent materials (RAM) in the form of composites, and special coatings to reduce its radar cross-section (RCS) and defeat even the most advanced adversary radar systems. In addition to ultra-low RCS, the aircraft will have a significantly reduced infrared signature, making it nearly invisible to heat-seeking weapons sensors.

The F-47's design is speculated to have features like “variable cycle” engines and adaptive intakes to hide the engine face, a critical next-level upgrade for radar evasion. It is being designed primarily for long-range penetration, a capability that current stealth fighters struggle to achieve. Its “exquisite” performance and capabilities will make it the “quarterback” of the USAF’s future mixed fleet of stealth and non-stealth combat aircraft. To reduce the aircraft's infrared signal, its cutting-edge adaptive engines will be concealed inside the airframe and its exhaust emissions will be cooled. In order to make the aircraft almost undetectable to infrared sensors and heat-seeking missiles, it is intended to fly at a temperature roughly equal to the surrounding atmosphere.

Read more at Simple Flying

AMETEK Announces Record Third Quarter Results and Raises Full Year Guidance

AMETEK’s third quarter 2025 sales were a record $1.89 billion, an 11% increase over the third quarter of 2024. quarter of 2024. On a GAAP basis, third quarter earnings per diluted share were $1.60. Adjusted earnings in the quarter were a record $1.89 per diluted share, up 14% from the third quarter of 2024. Adjusted earnings adds back non-cash, after-tax, acquisition-related intangible amortization of $0.22 per diluted share and excludes acquisition-related pre-tax costs of $19.7 million, or $0.07 per diluted share, for the FARO Technologies acquisition. GAAP operating income was a record $488.4 million, or 25.8% of sales. Adjusted operating income was a record $496.1 million, up 11% versus last year’s third quarter.

“Our businesses performed exceptionally well in the third quarter, delivering strong growth and impressive operating results,” noted Mr. Zapico. “For 2025, we continue to expect overall sales to be up mid-single digits compared to 2024. Adjusted earnings per diluted share are now expected to be in the range of $7.32 to $7.37, up 7% to 8% over the comparable basis for 2024. This is an increase from our previous guidance range of $7.06 to $7.20,” he added. “For the fourth quarter of 2025, overall sales are expected to be up approximately 10% compared to the same period last year. Adjusted earnings in the quarter are anticipated to be in the range of $1.90 to $1.95 per share, up 2% to 4% compared to the fourth quarter of 2024,” concluded Mr. Zapico.

Read more at Ametek

Ford, Hyundai Report Large Declines In October EV Sales After End Of Federal Credits

Sales of all-electric vehicles collapsed last month following the end of up to $7,500 in federal incentives for purchasing an EV, several automakers said Monday. Ford Motor, Kia, Hyundai Motor and Toyota Motor reported massive declines in EV sales as many buyers pulled ahead purchases before the credits ended under changes by the Trump administration. Ford, which ranked third in U.S. EV sales through the third quarter, reported a 25% drop in its year-over-year all-electric October sales. That included a 12% decline for its Mustang Mach-E crossover and a 17% fall for the F-150 Lightning.

Kia and Hyundai reported their top EV models dropped between 52% and 71% from a year earlier. The declines are notably greater when looking month to month, as September marked the end of a record quarter for EV sales in the U.S. ahead of the credits ending. Some models, such as Hyundai’s Ioniq 5 and Ioniq 9 EVs, fell by 80% and 71% from September to October, respectively, according to its reported sales. It was a similar story for comparable vehicles at Kia, which is owned by Hyundai Motor but largely operates separately in the U.S.

Read more at CNBC

Prepare For Humanoid Construction Robots Starting Now: Report

Humanoid robots might not be a fixture on the jobsites of today, but the time is now for builders to start gameplanning for their future usage, according to an Oct. 17 report from consulting firm McKinsey and Co. The report paints a scenario that contractors across the country are all too familiar with: Fewer young people entering the field, skilled workers retiring and a physically demanding environment have created a skilled labor crisis in the industry. The consulting firm also pointed to dismal gains in productivity over the last two decades, far below manufacturing and the overall economy.

In response, McKinsey claims, humanoid robots might be the answer. With the advent of embodied artificial intelligence, better physical component technology and increasingly sophisticated AI models, these robots represent what McKinsey calls a “potentially transformative solution” for the industry’s productivity crisis.

Read more at Construction Dive

Robot Swarms - Researchers Believe That Machines, Acting Collectively, Can More Effectively Accomplish Tasks

Forget teaching robots to think like humans. A field called swarm robotics is taking inspiration from ants, bees and even slime molds—simple creatures that achieve remarkable feats through collective intelligence. Unlike traditional robots that take orders from a central computer, swarm robots work like ant colonies. No single robot is in charge, but the swarm accomplishes complex tasks through simple interactions between neighbors. Each robot interacts only with those nearby, sometimes communicating with sounds or chemical signals in particles they release.

Researchers say this approach could excel where traditional robots fail, like situations where central control is impractical or impossible due to distance, scale or communication barriers. For instance, a swarm of drones might one day monitor vast areas to detect early-stage wildfires that current monitoring systems sometimes miss. Hundreds of drones could be continuously patrolling, able to detect fires within minutes of ignition. If some drones fail, others would continue monitoring. At the microscopic scale, researchers are developing tiny robots that could work together to navigate the human body to deliver medication or clear blockages without surgery.

Read more at The WSJ

Quote of the Day

“If you want to be successful, it's just this simple. Know what you are doing. Love what you are doing. And believe in what you are doing.”

Will Rogers - American Humorist and Actor who was born on this day in 1879.

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