Member Briefing October 23, 2026

Posted By: Harold King Daily Briefing,

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October’s Economic Indicators for U.S. Manufacturers

Manufacturing sustains its ninth consecutive month of expansion, with hiring continuing and industrial output rebounding, though producer prices surged to their highest single-month gain since early 2022 and the trade deficit broke above $100 billion. Here’s the scoop:

  • Manufacturing output rose in September, with gains in printing and support, primary metals, machinery, and electrical equipment, while motor vehicles and parts led declines (Federal Reserve)
  • U.S. manufacturing activity expanded for a ninth consecutive month in September, with new orders and backlogs strengthening even as price pressures surged back toward their earlier highs (Institute for Supply Management)
  • The U.S. trade deficit climbed above $100 billion in August for the first time since early 2025, as imports surged while export growth remained modest (U.S. Census Bureau; U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis)
  • New orders for manufactured goods held nearly flat in August, while shipments were virtually unchanged and unfilled orders extended their long run of growth (U.S. Census Bureau)
  • Manufacturing added 9,000 jobs in September for a third consecutive monthly gain, even as the broader economy added just 29,000 jobs overall (U.S. Department of Labor)
  • Producer prices surged 1.3 percent in September, the largest monthly increase since March 2022, pushing the 12-month gain to its highest level since December 2022 (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
  • Regional manufacturing activity remained broadly positive, with New York surging to a near five-year high and Kansas City accelerating for a third straight month, while Richmond slipped back into contraction (Federal Reserve regional surveys)

Read more at IndustryNet

Holiday Sales to Grow as Consumers Remain Resilient

Holiday sales are looking good, according to the most recent prediction from the National Retail Federation. They believe that retail sales in November and December will grow 4.2% over 2025. That translates to total spending of $1.013 trillion. By comparison, last year’s holiday sales rose 3.1% over 2024, totaling $972 billion. Similar to last year, retailers remain cautious amid higher gas prices, persistent inflation, higher interest rates and elevated consumer debt, resulting in a measured approach to seasonal hiring.

“We head into the holiday season with strong spending momentum, as consumers remain the bright spot in the economy,” NRF Chief Economist Mark Mathews said. “At the same time, inflation, rising gas prices and pressure on household spending will affect consumers differently across income groups.” Retailers are hiring seasonal workers to meet consumer demand this holiday season. NRF expects retailers to hire between 325,000 and 375,000 seasonal workers, in line with last year’s estimated 356,000 seasonal jobs.

Read more at Material Handling & Logistics

New York Fed: Service Sector Activity ‘Declined Significantly’ om October

Business activity declined significantly in the region's service sector in October, according to firms responding to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Business Leaders Survey. The survey's headline business activity index fell twelve points to -20.7, its lowest level since March.

  • The business climate index was little changed at -35.0, with just over half of respondents reporting an unfavorable climate.
  • The employment index rose five points to zero, suggesting that employment held steady after edging lower last month.
  • The wages index was little changed at 28.2, indicating that wages continued to increase at a modest pace.
  • The prices paid index held near 70.0, signaling that input prices continued to increase sharply, while the prices received index rose three points to 36.3, its highest level in four years.
  • The capital spending index moved down two points to -4.2, indicating that capital spending edged lower.
  • The index for future business activity fell ten points to -5.1, dropping into negative territory for the first time since December of 2025 and suggesting that firms expect a small decline in activity over the next six months.
  • The index for future capital spending turned negative, pointing to weak capital spending plans, and supply availability is expected to continue to worsen.

Read More at The New York Fed

Iran and the Middle East

Ukraine

Other World Headlines

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Millions Of Hacking Attempts As Companies, Governments Rush To Patch PHP Flaws

Companies and governments worldwide rushed on Thursday to patch critical flaws in the widely used PHP programming language, as a cybersecurity company reported millions of hacking attempts after the ​vulnerabilities were disclosed. The push came after governments in Europe and elsewhere took websites offline as a precaution on Wednesday while website operators scrambled to ‌secure systems running the software. The emergency shutdowns of banking, airline, rail, tax and government services from Tokyo to Helsinki showed how much public and corporate systems rely on the software, and how hard it is to fix such flaws quickly once they are made public.

PHP developers released urgent fixes on Wednesday for vulnerabilities that had lurked ⁠in the software for years until they were uncovered using AI, urging users to "update immediately". As companies and governments deployed patches and suspended websites as a precaution, hacking attempts surged into the millions, according to cloud services firm Cloudflare. "In the 10 hours before it was publicly announced, across the network we saw thousands of attempts to exploit it," Cloudflare CEO Matthew Prince said in a post on X late on Wednesday. "That jumped to tens of thousands in the ​45 minutes post announcement, hundreds of thousands within 2 hours, and millions now."

Read more at Reuters

AI/Tech Selloff Deepens as Flight Into Treasurys Drives 10 Year Yields Below 5%

Treasury yields fell sharply on Thursday, with investors turning to safe havens amid a steep sell-off in stocks driven by concerns around the artificial intelligence trade and surging oil prices.

  • The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield — used to price mortgages, auto loans and credit card debt — slid more than 20 basis points, to 4.945%, the first time below 5% since Sept. 23.
  • The yield on the 2-year Treasury note, which closely tracks short-term Federal Reserve rate policy, tumbled 20 basis points (0.2 percentage point), to 4.629%.
  • The yield on longer-dated 30-year U.S. Treasurys — most sensitive to geopolitical developments — was nearly 15 basis points lower, at 5.293%.

“For the first time in a while, Treasurys are enjoying haven status,” said Larry Holzenthaler, senior portfolio manager for fixed income at Catalyst Funds. “You have weakness in tech, an escalation of risk in the Middle East and higher oil. On a relative basis Treasurys start to look like the safe place to hide again in the short term.” The reversal in bonds this week emerged as questions persisted about the billions being spent to build artificial intelligence networks.

Read more at CNBC

Report: The US Faces National Security Risks Without Aluminum Smelters: Report

The United States faces economic and national security risks without access to primary aluminum produced domestically, according to an economic analysis by Adam Hersh, economist and research fellow at the University of Massachusetts. There are zero smelters operating today in the U.S. — or in any NATO country — capable of producing high-purity aluminum specifically for the military, leaving the nation reliant on supplies and exposed to potential disruptions from China, Russia or the United Arab Emirates, Hersh said Friday at a press event in Washington, D.C.

The U.S. Departments of Defense and Commerce have flagged this as a “very big problem” and represents a “serious market failure,” he said. Producers such as Century Aluminum and Magnitude 7 Metals are working to build or restart U.S. smelter capacity in the coming years, but residents and advocacy groups have pushed back on their efforts citing environmental and health concerns.

Read more at Manufacturing Dive

November Election Headlines

More Policy and Politics Headlines

Flu Season 2026 Is Ramping Up Early—Here's What You Need To Know

According to the Centers of Disease Control and Prevention’s latest FluView report, released on October 9, flu activity has been climbing since early September. Flu season in the U.S. generally begins gaining momentum in the fall, with activity peaking between December and February. But surveillance indicators show that certain strains of influenza are rising fast. The CDC’s latest data show a nationwide percent positivity rate for influenza—the percentage of all positive influenza tests—of 3.6 percent. That’s a sixfold increase compared with this time in 2025, when the rate was 0.6 percent.

Right now, H1N1, a subtype of influenza A, is dominant. According to the CDC, the most recent weekly testing data showed that 98.4 percent of the positive tests indicated H1N1 and that 1.6 percent revealed H3N2, another influenza A subtype. Trish Perl, a professor of internal medicine and a specialist in infectious disease at UT Southwestern Medical Center, says that right now is the best time to get a flu shot. “Immunity from the flu vaccine is strongest for about four to six months, and we usually expect flu to peak in December or January,” Pekosz says. “So a September or October vaccination will get you through the worst part of the flu season.”

Read more at Scientific American

Upcoming Council Programs

Events

Annual Luncheon and Expo - Friday November 20, 11:00 AM - 2:00 PM. The Grandview, Poughkeepsie.

Insight Exchange - On Demand Webinars

The Orange County Foreign Trade Zone (FTZ): Duty Elimination, Reduction Deferral - Presented by Steve Gross, Orange County Economic Development

C3POA - Key Perpectives on your CMMC Compiance Journey - Presented by Nick DeLena, PKF O'Connor Davies.

CMMC for Legacy Equipment: Securing Specialized Assets with Zero Trust Micro-Enclaves - Presented by Marc Hoover, Trout Software.

See previous episodes here!

Training

Making a Profit in Manufacturing, (A CML Course) October 28, 8:30 - 4:30. SUNY Orange Newburgh.

Lean Overview and Simulation, (A CML Course) November 19, 8:30 - 4:30. SUNY Orange Newburgh.

Risk Management: Enviroment Health and Safety, (A CML Course) November 19, 8:30 - 4:30. SUNY Orange Newburgh.

Strategies for Motivation, Coaching and Managing Difficult People, (A CML Course) November 19, 8:30 - 4:30. SUNY Orange Newburgh.

Trade Wars

Apple Expands US Supplier Network For iPhone Materials, Components

Apple has partnered with a new U.S. supplier and expanded its alliance with another to provide critical materials and components for the iPhone Duo and iPhone 18 Pro, according to an Oct. 20 press release. Apple’s new supplier is Perryman Company, a Pennsylvania-based titanium producer. The metal is used to make the casings of many Apple products. Apple will commit up to $100 million over the next three years with Perryman, which melts, forges and rolls titanium with at least 80% recycled content for iPhone Duo, according to the release.

Meanwhile, Apple expanded its supplier agreement with Delaware-based Qnity Electronics, which produces advanced films for the iPhone 18 Pro’s new variable aperture camera system. The aperture assembly is at the heart of the new iPhone’s 48-megapixel Fusion Main camera. The partnerships are part of Apple’s American Manufacturing Program, an effort launched last year as part of Apple’s four-year, $600 billion commitment to U.S. manufacturing, the company said. Apple works with suppliers in all 50 states and supports more than 450,000 jobs, per the release. The company’s global supply chain spans thousands of supplier facilities across more than 60 countries.

Read more at Supply Chain Dive

FAA Approves 737 MAX-10 Deliveries

The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration cleared Boeing Co. to begin deliveries of its 737 MAX-10 aircraft, more than nine years after the largest variant of the single-aisle commercial jet series was introduced. Boeing has drawn close to 1,555 orders for the MAX-10 from more than 30 customers, representing about 30% of the order backlog for its top-selling jet series. Many of those are large-volume orders from major carriers - including American Airlines, Alaska Air, Delta Air Lines, Ryanair, and United Air Lines - and Boeing has said it expects to begin the deliveries in 2027.

The FAA announced it has issued an amended type certificate, confirming the 737 MAX-10 complies with all applicable design and safety requirements, and an updated Production Limitation Record, authorizing aircraft production. Demand for the aircraft is so significant that Boeing set up a fourth assembly line in Everett, Wash., to manage its planned production increases. The MAX-10 has a range of up to 3,100 nautical miles (5,749 km/3,567 miles) and seats up 230 passengers.

Read more at American Machinist

Pentagon Will Invest $1.5B Into North Carolina Chip Production

President Trump on Tuesday announced a $1.5 billion dollar investment from the Pentagon to expand semiconductor production in North Carolina, as the administration pushes to reshore manufacturing to the U.S. “The Department of War will be investing $1.5 billion dollars to produce cutting-edge semiconductor chips right here in North Carolina,” Trump said while speaking at a midterm rally in Greenville. The president also announced the construction of a massive manufacturing plant in the Tar Heel State by Sibelco.

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick provided few details but said the facility will focus on quartz manufacturing. “It is basically the foundation of semiconductors, and they’re going to build it right here in North Carolina,” he said. Trump said companies have been investing in U.S. manufacturing “at levels never seen before.”

Read more at The Hill

Airbus Plans Hydrogen Powered Regional 80-Seat Aircraft

Airbus has revised the plan for its first hydrogen aircraft and is now aiming to debut a regional propeller design powered by fuel cells sometime in the 2040s. The announcement, made last week during a media event here, marks the latest shift in the company’s ZEROe program, which began in late 2020 with a goal to debut a larger passenger airliner in 2035. Airbus over the last several years has been evaluating a range of concepts, most recently a 100-seat version of the fuel-cell-powered design.

Lars Wagner, head of Airbus’ Commercial Aircraft business, said the first ZEROe plane is slated to have roughly 80 seats and a range of approximately 1,000 nautical miles. He declined to give more details, citing competition concerns, but Airbus in July announced it would form a joint venture with MTU Aero Engines “dedicated to the development and commercialisation of a fully electric hydrogen fuel cell engine,” according to a press release. Although the 80-seat ZEROe aircraft has reduced capacity and range compared to Airbus’ core single-aisle fleet, Wagner expressed confidence in the market demand. He noted the 1,000-nm range is sufficient for key European routes.

Read more at Aerospace America

Cleveland-Cliffs Posts ‘Strongest’ Quarter In Three Years

Cleveland-Cliffs saw its strongest quarter in three years, CFO Celso Goncalves said on an earnings call Monday, driven in part by higher prices and favorable costs. The steelmaker reported adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization of $612 million during Q3, which came in above its $575 million guidance issued three months ago. It was also more than double what Cleveland-Cliffs generated in Q2. Cleveland-Cliffs’ positive results coincided with one of the best pricing environments in three years.

Q3 steel shipments reached 4.2 million net tons, up 3% from a year ago and the previous quarter. The shipment mix during the period included 46% hot-rolled, 31% coated, 15% cold-rolled, 4% plate and 4% stainless and electrical. Shipments to North American automotive customers were the highest they’ve been since Q3 2023, Goncalves said. At the same time, market prices increased in the United States and Canada. The average net selling price reached $1,177 per ton, up $53 per ton from the previous quarter.

Read more at Manufacturing Dive

GM CFO: Recent Inflation Jump Could Cut ’27 EBIT by $1.5B

The surge in inflation that started late this summer is on pace to cost General Motors another $400 million this year and, if prices for key goods don’t retreat soon, cut up to $1.5 billion from the automotive giant’s earnings in 2027, CFO Paul Jacobson said Oct. 20. Speaking after the leaders of Detroit-based GM reported third-quarter profits of more than $3.3 billion on sales of $50.0 billion and raised their full-year forecasts, Jacobson said the war in and near Iran has caused commodity and logistics costs to rise faster than his team had expected three months ago.

GM’s prices for hot-rolled coil steel and copper, he said, have jumped between 10% and 15% since July. That will translate into an extra $400 million in costs for this calendar year, he added, growing the collective impact of price hikes in commodities, shipping and semiconductors to roughly $2 billion for the full year. Chair and CEO Mary Barra told analysts the recent spike hasn’t given her team enough time to line up details about where to offset the added costs. But, she said, “we obviously have work to do and we plan to do it.”

Read more at IndustryWeek  

Lockheed, Pentagon Strike Initial Deal To Produce 850 F-35 Jets

Lockheed Martin has entered an initial production and sustainment agreement with the Department of ​Defense for at least 850 F-35 Lightning II fighter jets over ‌the next 10 years, they said on Thursday. The defense contractor will self-fund at least $7 billion in initiatives that support the F-35 program, the department said in a statement. Under the agreement with the Department of War, Lockheed aims to maintain annual production at 156 aircraft. The agreement does not constitute an order but is counted as a prearranged long-term contract.

The F-35, built ​with stealth technology that allows it to evade enemy detection, is considered ​the world's most advanced fighter jet and is at the ⁠core of Lockheed's aeronautics division that forms close to 40% of its quarterly ​revenue. Lockheed estimates the agreement will support 317,000 US jobs and generate nearly $79 ⁠billion in ​annual economic activity over the next decade. It also ​expects the arrangement to lower production costs and ease supply-chain constraints from raw materials to finished ​parts.

Read more at Reuters

Electric Grid Equipment Manufacturer ABB Sees US Orders Rise 82%

Zurich-based grid equipment manufacturer ABB saw third-quarter orders grow 40% over the same period last year, to a record $12 billion globally, with demand from data centers and utilities in the United States helping drive growth, the company reported Tuesday. Orders from all regions improved at year-over-year double-digit rates, the company said. Orders from the Americas region were up about 70%, led by an 82% year-over-year order increase from the United States.

ABB produces a wide range of electrical equipment for utilities and other industrial users, including switchgear, circuit breakers, transfer switches and low voltage transformers. ABB’s electrification segment booked record orders of $7.67 billion in the third quarter, up 70% year over year. Orders for electrification equipment in the Americas region grew 117% in that period, ABB said, while those in Europe grew about 20% and China by almost 40% on a comparable basis.

Read more at Utility Dive

Daily Market Update Oct 22, 2026

November ’26 natural gas contract is trading down $0.006 at $2.785. The December ’26 crude oil contract is up $2.19 at $99.33.

Read more at NRG

Learn more about the Council of Industry Energy Buying Group

Quote of the Day

“Fates, we will know your pleasures:

That we shall die, we know; 'tis but the time

And drawing days out, that men stand upon.”

Marcus Junius Brutus - Roman Statesman (as voiced by William Shakespeare, in is play 'Julius Caesar.') He committed suicide by running onto his sword following his defeat at the second battle of Philippi on this day in 42 BC.

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