Member Briefing October 27, 2025

Posted By: Harold King Daily Briefing,

CPI = 3.0 Up, But Lower Than Expected

The CPI reading, the only official economic data allowed to be released during the government shutdown, showed a 0.3% increase on the month, putting the annual inflation rate at 3%. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for respective readings of 0.4% and 3.1%. The annual rate reflected a 0.1 percentage point uptick from August. Excluding food and energy, core CPI showed a 0.2% monthly gain and an annual rate also at 3%, compared to respective estimates of 0.3% and 3.1%, the latter being unchanged from a month ago. Core CPI on a monthly basis had posted 0.3% gains in both July and August.

  • A 4.1% jump in gasoline prices was the largest contributor to a report that otherwise showed inflation pressures fairly muted.
  • Food prices showed a 0.2% increase. Within the food index, prices for meat, poultry, fish and eggs surged 5.2% in the past year, while nonalcoholic beverages increased 5.3%.
  • In energy, while electricity (up 5.1%) and natural gas (11.7%) prices pushed higher over the past year, gasoline actually fell 0.5% during the period.
  • Shelter costs, which comprise about one-third of the weighting in the CPI, rose just 0.2% and were up 3.6% from a year ago. Services excluding shelter costs also were 0.2% higher.
  • New vehicles saw a 0.8% increase, but used cars and truck prices fell 0.4%.

Read more at CNBC

Existing-Home Sales Report Shows 1.5% Increase in September

Existing-home sales increased by 1.5% month-over-month in September, according to the National Association of REALTORS® Existing-Home Sales Report. The Report provides the real estate ecosystem, including agents and homebuyers and sellers, with data on the level of home sales, price, and inventory. "As anticipated, falling mortgage rates are lifting home sales," said NAR Chief Economist Dr. Lawrence Yun. "Improving housing affordability is also contributing to the increase in sales.” Yun added that "Inventory is matching a five-year high, though it remains below pre-COVID levels,"

  • The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell from 6.8% on average in June to 6.6% on average in August according to Freddie Mac, a reduction which appears to be the primary factor behind September’s rise in resales. Rates have descended further since then, dipping below 6.3% this week according to Mortgage News Daily.
  • The median single-family home sold for $420.7K in September, bringing the annual pace of appreciation up to 2.3%. Although still below historical averages, this marked the second monthly acceleration in prices.
  • Resale supply is making progress toward normalization. Single-family inventory increased slightly in September but remained 15.6% below the level in September 2019. That said, it is steadily growing on a year-over-year basis. Furthermore, inventory could sustain 4.4 months’ supply at the current sales pace, a rate that has surpassed pre-pandemic trends.

Read more at Wells Fargo

Consumer Sentiment Falls to 5-Month as High Prices as Inflation Worries Persist

Consumer sentiment inched lower in October, remaining at its lowest level in five months. The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell 1.5 points (-2.7%) to 53.6 this month.. Consumer sentiment has fallen by 24.0% (16.9 points) compared to a year ago. The decline leaves the sentiment index hovering above the lows it hit in April, when President Trump unveiled steep new tariffs—but only just. That month, the sentiment metric dropped to an index value of 52.2 before recovering during the summer.

While the government shutdown has grabbed headlines, it was likely not at the forefront of consumers’ minds this month, survey director Joanne Hsu said. Few respondents brought up the shutdown in this month’s interviews, she said. Instead, inflation and high prices remained their dominant concern, she said. One-year inflation expectations declined slightly in October, the survey found. But consumers’ long-term inflation forecasts moved higher—a troubling sign for the Federal Reserve, which prioritizes the public’s confidence that in the long run, it will keep inflation under control.

Read more at Seeking Alpha

Middle East

Ukraine

Other Headlines

Shut Down Continues

As the government shutdown continued on Sunday, many of the people with the power to solve the funding crisis – the consequences of which are growing more intense for millions of Americans with each passing day – were nowhere in sight in the nation's capital. President Donald Trump embarked on a six-day international trip just as the weekend began, after many lawmakers had already left town. Members of Congress are entrenched in disagreements over health care policy with little bipartisanship on the horizon.

In the meantime, the realities of the shutdown are worsening. Key federal health data is stalled with flu season approaching. The government has warned of a holiday travel meltdown. In less than a week, funding for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP, will start to run out for the more than 40 million low-income people. Travelers should prepare for more flight delays and cancelations, Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said, as the continuing shutdown further stresses air travel.

Read more at USA Today

Trump To Meet China’s Xi This Week As Trade Deal Remains Elusive

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters Thursday that Trump will meet his Chinese counterpart on Oct. 30 on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation, or APEC, Summit. “I think we are going to come out very well and everyone’s going to be very happy,” Trump said later on Thursday about his panned meeting with Xi. It will be the first in-person meeting between the two heads of states since Trump returned to the office in January. The leaders, who have had at least two phone calls this year, last met in 2019 during Trump’s first presidential term.

The high-stakes meeting comes as a delicate trade detente between the economic superpowers nears its expiration on Nov. 10 if they fail to agree on another extension. Trump has also set Nov. 1 as the deadline for additional 100% tariffs announced earlier this month. The trade truce has been threatened in recent weeks by a fresh wave of restrictive measures, ranging from hefty port fees on each other’s vessels, expanded export controls on technology and rare earth minerals. The two economic powers have also tussled over lingering issues including tariffs, agricultural purchases, fentanyl flows, and geopolitical flashpoints such as Taiwan. The two countries may agree to resume the ongoing trade talks, rather than a sweeping trade deal, Han Shen Lin, China director of global consultancy firm The Asia Group., stressing that deeper structural disputes have not been resolved and “may never be.”

Read more at CNBC

New York Is Violating Its Flagship Climate Law, Ulster County Judge Rules

New York is violating its climate law — and doesn’t get a pass because implementing the law is “complicated,” a judge found Friday. The 2019 law, which remains one of the most ambitious in the country, gave the state Department of Environmental Conservation until the start of 2024 to issue regulations that would “ensure” New York meet its binding greenhouse gas emissions targets. More than a year and half later, it has not — a fact that Ulster County Supreme Court Judge Julian Schreibman said was “undisputed” in the case.

Climate groups brought the case in March after Governor Kathy Hochul slammed the brakes on what was expected to be her signature policy to implement the climate law: an emissions pricing program known as cap and invest. The DEC argued in court that issuing the regulations was “infeasible” because it “would require imposing extraordinary and damaging costs upon New Yorkers.” (Hochul in August said much the same about her own reasons for shelving cap and invest.) The judge dismissed that argument. Schreibman said there were two possible paths forward: Either the legislature can step in and change the law, or the DEC must act on it. Schreibman gave the DEC until February 6 to issue regulations that comply with the law, called the Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act.

Read more at New York Focus

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AI Helps Radiologists Detect 20% More Breast Cancers, Study Finds

Recent findings show that when an AI tool teams up with a radiologist reading a mammogram, they are detecting up to 20% more cancers than radiologists working alone. The technology works when a mammogram image is processed by the AI, which highlights subtle patterns or signs of possible cancer that human eyes might miss. Then, a radiologist reviews those flagged spots and makes the final call. In one recent trial, the use of AI didn't increase unnecessary recalls either, meaning it seems to reduce misses rather than just create more false alarms.

That said — it's not a complete substitute for human judgement. Radiologists still make the final decisions, and researchers say we need ongoing studies to ensure AI tools work well across diverse populations and in real-world screening programs. Early detection of breast cancer dramatically improves the chances of successful treatment. So using AI as a second set of eyes to find more cancers — and finding them earlier — could save lives.

Read more at NBC News

Upcoming Council Programs

Events

2025 Annual Luncheon - November 21, 2025 -11:00 AM Expo, 12:00 Lunch. The Grandview, Poughkeepsie.

Networks

Environment Health & Safety Sub Council Meeting Topic TBD, November 13, 2025, 8:30 - 11:00. MPI, Poughkeepsie.

HR Sub Council Meeting Topic TBD, January 14, 2026, 8:15 - 11:00. Selux Corporation, Highland.

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Training

TOMORROW - A FEW SEATS LEFT  Introduction to Lean with Simulation - This full-day Lean Foundations course, led by Vin Buonomo from RIT CQAS, is designed as a starting point for those interested in Lean certification—including Yellow Belt and Green Belt. October 28, 2025 - Location TBD.

2 Seats Left Lean Six Sigma: Yellow Belt - Yellow Belt is an approach to process improvement that merges the complementary concepts and tools from both Six Sigma and Lean approaches. 3 Full days - November 12, 13 & 14 - DCC Fishkill.

Trade Wars

 

China Vows To Raise Household Consumption 'Significantly'

China will increase the proportion of government investment for people's livelihoods and raise the percentage of household consumption of GDP "significantly" over the next five years, officials told reporters on Friday. The comments came after China unveiled its outline for economic and other policy goals for 2026-2030 on Thursday, which showed the leadership prioritised manufacturing and technology-reliance over consumption.

China's household consumption lags global averages by about 20 percentage points of GDP, while debt-driven investment is roughly 20 points ahead. "Strengthening the domestic market is a strategic underpinning for China's modernization... There is room and potential for China to expand its domestic demand," said Zheng Shanjie, the head of the National Development and Reform Commission. China will plan a number of major policies, reforms and projects and speed up the planning of policy measures for next year to ensure a good start to the 15th five-year plan, according to state television, which cited a cabinet meeting.

 Read more at Reuters

Airbus, Leonardo, Thales Join Forces to Reshape European Space Landscape

Three of Europe’s largest aerospace and defense companies are joining forces to reshape the continent’s space industry. Airbus, Leonardo, and Thales have signed a memorandum of understanding to merge their space operations into a new joint venture that will unify much of Europe’s satellite, communications, and Earth-observation capabilities under one organization. The new company will bring together Airbus’s Space Systems and Space Digital businesses, Leonardo’s Space Division—including its holdings in Telespazio and Thales Alenia Space—and Thales’s stakes in Thales Alenia Space, Telespazio, and Thales SESO. The venture is expected to be operational in 2027, subject to employee consultations and regulatory approvals.

The venture will employ around 25,000 people, generate roughly €6.5 billion in annual revenue, and carry an order backlog covering more than three years of projected sales. Ownership will be split with Airbus holding 35% and Leonardo and Thales each holding 32.5%, with a balanced governance structure under joint control. By unifying three established aerospace and defense leaders, the company aims to achieve the scale and expertise needed to compete more effectively with global players, including SpaceX, Northrop Grumman, and Lockheed Martin. The merger also aligns with Europe’s broader goal of strategic autonomy, reducing reliance on non-European technology for critical capabilities such as secure satellite communications, navigation, and defense intelligence.

Read more at Flight Plan

Intel Q3 Earnings Beat Expectations, AI Drives Chip Demand  

Intel reported $13.7 billion in revenue for the three months ended Sept. 27, higher than the $13.15 billion expected by analysts tracked by Bloomberg and $13.28 billion the previous year. The chipmaker said that adjusted earnings per share was $0.23, above the $0.01 projected by Wall Street. The company reported a loss of $0.46 during the same period in 2024. CEO Lip-Bu Tan said in a statement that "AI is accelerating demand for compute and creating attractive opportunities across our portfolio," including the company's closely-watched, struggling manufacturing business and its products.

Intel's manufacturing arm, Intel Foundry Services, reported an operating loss of $2.3 billion for the third quarter, wider than the $2.2 billion expected but an improvement from the $5.8 billion loss in the previous year. The comapny said its fourth quarter guidance was below analyst estimates because the company's projections don't include revenue from Altera —a semiconductor firm owned by Intel that the company partly divested in the third quarter.

Read more at Yahoo Finance

Google Unveils Quantum Computing Breakthrough on Willow Chip

Google said it has developed a computer algorithm that points the way to practical applications for quantum computing and will be able to generate unique data for use with artificial intelligence. The new algorithm called Quantum Echoes, which runs on the company's quantum chip, is 13,000 times faster than the most sophisticated classical computing algorithm on supercomputers, Google said. In the future, the Quantum Echoes algorithm may be able to help measure molecular structure in molecules which could aid in drug discovery and help material science through identifying new types of materials, company executives told a media briefing last week.

Last year, Google unveiled its quantum chip, Willow, that the company said is able to overcome a crucial problem with "qubits", the building blocks of quantum computing. The development of the algorithm was roughly equivalent in significance to the chip, the executives said. The algorithm is also verifiable with other quantum computers or through experiments. Verifiable data means that it can lead to practical applications.

Read more at Reuters

Procter & Gamble Beats Earnings Estimates But Reveals Waning Demand In Some Categories

Procter & Gamble on Friday reported fiscal first-quarter earnings and revenue that beat analysts’ expectations, lifted by higher demand for its beauty and grooming products. Despite higher costs from tariffs and what CEO Jon Moeller called a “challenging consumer and geopolitical environment,” P&G reiterated its forecast for all-in sales and earnings for the fiscal year, which began in July. P&G reported fiscal first-quarter net income attributable to the company of $4.75 billion, or $1.95 per share, up from $3.96 billion, or $1.61 per share, a year earlier. Net sales rose 3% to $22.39 billion. Organic sales — which strips out the impact of acquisitions, divestitures and foreign currency — increased 2% in the quarter.

In the United States, the company’s largest market, consumption across P&G’s broad swath of products has slowed “a little bit,” according to Schulten. Like Coca-Cola, P&G is seeing a bifurcation in how consumers are shopping based on their incomes, often described as a “K-shaped” economy. Shoppers who are less cash constrained are buying bigger pack sizes from club and online retailers, Schulten said. But U.S. consumers living paycheck to paycheck are looking to stretch their money further by using every bottle of detergent or shampoo to the last drop and exhausting their pantry inventory before shopping for more, according to Schulten.

Read more at CNBC

Boeing Defense Worker Strike Continues After Latest Talks Fail and Workers Reject Offer

A strike of Boeing defense workers looked poised to continue Wednesday after the latest round of negotiations broke down, leading to public recriminations on both sides. A member of the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers told a congressional panel that Boeing had failed to negotiate in good faith. Shortly after the appearance, Boeing blasted union leadership for refusing to allow a vote on the company's most recent offer. The latest back and forth follows two days of mediation to try to end the strike, which is now in its 12th week after 3,200 workers in the midwestern states of Missouri and Illinois went on the picket line on August 4.

Joshua Arnold, an 11-year Boeing employee who works on the F/A-18 aircraft program, told a Senate panel in Washington that the company refuses to boost a "substandard" offer considering the rising cost of living and the skills required of Boeing's manufacturing workers. Shortly after Arnold's appearance on Capitol Hill, Boeing posted a message from St. Louis-based Boeing executive Dan Gillian with details about the company's latest proposal, which includes the addition of $3,000 in restricted stock to boost a signing bonus. The proposal also lowers the annual attendance progression payment. A subsequent IAM statement called the latest offer "disrespectful," saying "we will not vote on an insulting offer."

Read more at IndustryWeek

Ford Faces Up To $2B Quarterly Hit From Novelis Plant Fire. Ramps Up Production

Ford Motor Co. expects to rapidly make up a Q3 hit of up to $2 billion as its primary aluminum supplier returns to production sooner than expected. The automaker on Wednesday announced it will add up to 1,000 jobs – about 900 in Michigan and 100 in Kentucky – to boost production of up to 50,000 of its top-selling F-150 and F-Series Super Duty trucks in early 2026. The rapid ramp up comes after Novelis, a top supplier of aluminum sheets to the auto industry, confirmed that its hot mill plant in Oswego, New York, will resume operations by the end of December. Novelis said previously that the section of the plant damaged in an October fire would be offline until early 2026.

COO Kumar Galhotra said that the aluminum supply disruption will translate to reduced F-Series truck production of between 90,000 and 100,000 units in Q4. Although Andrew Frick, president of Ford Blue, said while its gross stock of trucks is down 11%, its retail stock levels are projected to end the year with a 55- to 59-day supply. However, Ford’s short supply of trucks may not last. Galhotra expects the automaker can make up “roughly 50,000 of those 100,000 units in 2026” as the additional workers join production lines and its aluminum supplies are restored. Pickup truck sales are important to Ford because its F-Series represented 207,720 of the 545,522 of the vehicles it sold during Q3. 

Read more at Ward’s Auto

Rivian to Lay Off More Than 600 Workers Amid EV Pullback

Rivian RIVN is carrying out another round of layoffs affecting around 4% of its workforce as the electric-truck maker tries to conserve cash in a world pulling back from electric vehicles. More than 600 people are slated to lose their jobs, people familiar with the matter said. At the end of last year, the company had just under 15,000 employees. A month ago, the company did a smaller round of layoffs, affecting 1.5% of its workforce. It said the move was to reduce costs ahead of the launch of a more affordable sport-utility vehicle next year.

Rivian and other EV manufacturers are being hit hard by the pullback in policies that supported the adoption of electric vehicles. The end of a $7,500 federal tax credit for consumers buying EVs is expected to tank sales. Rivian’s vehicle sales grew 32% to 13,201 vehicles in the third quarter, but the company narrowed its delivery guidance for the full year to 41,500 to 43,500 vehicles after previously forecasting as many as 46,000 deliveries. Rivian reports its full quarterly earnings on Nov. 4.

Read more at The WSJ

Quote of the Day

"In science one tries to tell people, in such a way as to be understood by everyone, something that no one ever knew before. But in poetry, it's the exact opposite."

Paul Dirac - English Theoretical Physicist and Nobel Laureate who's Dirac equation predicted the existence of antimatter. He died on this day in 1984.

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