Member Briefing October 28, 2025

Posted By: Harold King Daily Briefing,

Flash US PMI Signals Strong Start To The Fourth Quarter, Manufacturing Volumes Continue 5 Month Rise

Faster economic growth was signaled in October as the headline S&P Global US PMI Composite Output Index rose from 53.9 in September to 54.8 in October, according to the 'flash' reading (based on about 85% of usual survey responses). The latest reading is the highest since July, and among the highest recorded over the past three-and-a-half years. Output has now risen continually for 33 months. The survey data are consistent with the economy expanding at a 2.5% annualized rate in October after a similar rise was signaled for the third quarter.

Higher output was reported in the manufacturing sector, where production volumes rose for a fifth consecutive month. The expansion of factory output was the largest since August, and the second-largest since February, buoyed by the sharpest influx of new orders for just over one-and-a-half years. However, the upturn in orders was driven by the domestic market, as export orders for manufactured goods fell sharply, dropping at the steepest rate since February. Companies reported falling sales to markets including China and Europe, often blamed on tariff policies.

Read more at S&P Global

The Federal Reserve Meets Wednesday For Interest Rate Decision. Here's What Economists Predict.

The Federal Reserve is set to make its next interest rate decision on Wednesday, even as a near-total blackout of federal economic data continues amid the government shutdown. The Labor Department, however, on Friday released one key report ahead of its meeting: the Consumer Price Index. That report showed that the inflation rate rose at a pace of 3% last month, cooler than expected, as the impact of President Trump's wide-ranging tariffs have so far been more muted than economists have forecast.

Economists say the softer inflation report likely opens the door to a rate cut on Wednesday. There's a 96.7% probability that the Fed will cut its benchmark rate by 0.25 percentage points on Wednesday, according to CME FedWatch, which bases its predictions on 30-Day Fed Funds futures prices. A quarter-point cut would bring down the benchmark rate to a range of between 3.75% to 4%, down from its current range of between 4% to 4.25%, and mark the Fed's second rate cut this year. Taken with September's reduction — and an expected third cut at its December meeting the benchmark rate by year-end could sit 0.75 percentage points lower than it was in January.

Read more at CBS

Companies Bet They Can Still Grow Without Hiring

It’s the corporate gamble of the moment: Can you run a company, increasing sales and juicing profits, without adding people?  American employers are increasingly making the calculation that they can keep the size of their teams flat—or shrink through layoffs—without harming their businesses. Part of that thinking is the belief that artificial intelligence will be used to pick up some of the slack and automate more processes. Companies are also hesitant to make any moves in an economy many still describe as uncertain.

It’s the corporate gamble of the moment: Can you run a company, increasing sales and juicing profits, without adding people? American employers are increasingly making the calculation that they can keep the size of their teams flat—or shrink through layoffs—without harming their businesses. Part of that thinking is the belief that artificial intelligence will be used to pick up some of the slack and automate more processes. Companies are also hesitant to make any moves in an economy many still describe as uncertain. The desire to avoid hiring or filling jobs reflects a growing push among executives to see a return on their AI spending. Many executives hope that software coding assistants and armies of digital agents will keep improving—even if the current results still at times leave something to be desired.

Read more at the WSJ

Middle East

Ukraine

Other Headlines

Largest Federal Worker Union Urges Democrats In Congress To End The Ongoing U.S. Government Shutdown

The largest union representing federal workers on Monday called for Democrats in Congress to end the ongoing government shutdown by voting for the stopgap funding measure that Republicans have proposed. “It’s time to pass a clean continuing resolution and end this shutdown today,” Everett Kelly, president of the American Federation of Government Employees, wrote. “No half measures, and no gamesmanship. Put every single federal worker back on the job with full back pay — today,” said Kelly, whose union represents more than 800,000 federal and District of Columbia government workers.

Senate Democrats have largely resisted voting for the clean resolution, which would fund the government through Nov. 21, saying they want any funding measure to extend enhanced Affordable Care Act tax credits. Those subsidies, which are due to expire at the end of 2025, lower the cost of Obamacare health insurance plans for more than 20 million Americans. At least 60 senators need to vote for such a measure because of the Senate’s filibuster rules. Republicans only hold 53 seats in that chamber.

Read more at CNBC

Governor Hochul Announces $40 Million Investment in New State-of-the-Art Facility for In-Demand Career Training at HVCC

Governor Kathy Hochul last week announced a $40 million investment in a new state-of-the-art workforce training facility, the Applied Technology Education Center, at Hudson Valley Community College. The 125,000-square-foot, $64 million facility is set to open in 2027 and will prepare New Yorkers for in-demand careers in applied technology and skilled trades fields, including building systems, automotive and transportation technologies, renewable energy and semiconductor manufacturing.

Many applied technology and skilled trades industries are experiencing a severe shortage of qualified workers. With the construction of the Applied Technology Education Center (ATEC), Hudson Valley Community College will further help bolster a strong workforce pipeline to benefit both students and the companies who seek to hire them. ATEC will include specialized labs and classrooms with the latest tools, equipment, and technology to meet modern industry needs. The new building will replace aging structures on campus: Williams Hall, built in 1967, and Cogan Hall, built in 1984. The college will begin construction this spring. In addition to the $40 million announced today, the campus received investment from the federal Economic Development Administration, Rensselaer County, and private sector partners and alumni donors.

Read the Governor’s press release

6 Ways The Shutdown Is About To Get Worse

The government shutdown will be felt by more people should it continue to the end of this week. With President Donald Trump traveling abroad and Congress still deeply divided over a path to fund federal agencies, a pileup of deadlines on and around Nov. 1 is set to put many U.S. households at risk of new hardship: Popular programs that provide nutrition assistance, early childhood education and air service to rural communities are now among those about to run out of money. Thousands of federal employees will also miss their first full paychecks this week, so services like TSA screenings and air traffic control operations could be further stunted if those workers stop showing up, as was the case during the 35-day partial shutdown that ended in early 2019.

Nov. 1 is also the date that open enrollment begins for Affordable Care Act health plans, a central point of conflict amid the partisan shutdown impasse. In Congress, some lawmakers are working to mitigate the shutdown’s effects on select services with piecemeal bills. But none of those measures are on the fast track to final passage.As the shutdown hits the four-week mark and Thanksgiving fast approaches, here’s when cash is expected to run out for key programs if Congress can’t strike a deal soon.

Read more at Politico

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What To Know About COVID, Flu, RSV Vaccines Amid Respiratory Virus Season

Respiratory virus season is upon the United States as the cold weather months set in, meaning cases of COVID-19, influenza and RSV are set to increase. In its annual outlook report, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said it expects the 2025-26 respiratory virus season to have a similar number of peak hospitalizations from influenza, RSV and COVID-19 compared to last season. Public health experts told ABC News the best way for people to protect themselves against these viruses is to get vaccinated.

"We are so fortunate to be in a time that we have these protective measures, especially for our children," Dr. Hansa Bhargava, a board-certified pediatrician at Children's Health Care of Atlanta and adjunct Professor at Emery University, told ABC News. "It's really important to get the vaccines that your doctor recommends, both for yourself and also because even if you get vaccinated and there isn't herd immunity, which means the community is not protected, then [your family is] at greater risk to get the illness if it comes through," she continued.

Read more at ABC News

Upcoming Council Programs

Events

2025 Annual Luncheon - November 21, 2025 -11:00 AM Expo, 12:00 Lunch. The Grandview, Poughkeepsie.

Networks

Environment Health & Safety Sub Council Meeting Topic TBD, November 13, 2025, 8:30 - 11:00. MPI, Poughkeepsie.

HR Sub Council Meeting Topic TBD, January 14, 2026, 8:15 - 11:00. Selux Corporation, Highland.

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Training

2 Seats Left Lean Six Sigma: Yellow Belt - Yellow Belt is an approach to process improvement that merges the complementary concepts and tools from both Six Sigma and Lean approaches. 3 Full days - November 12, 13 & 14 - DCC Fishkill.

Trade Wars

 

Global Chip Dispute Threatens Auto Production

U.S. assembly plants are weeks away from shutdowns due to a new chip shortage. Germany’s VDA, the lobbying group for the auto industry, warns that suppliers and automakers in Europe are also only days away from having to shut down production because of another chip shortage. In late September 2025, the Dutch government seized control of Nexperia, a Chinese-owned chipmaker supplying essential components to carmakers worldwide. Within days, China retaliated by restricting exports from Nexperia’s Chinese operations, triggering warnings from automakers that production lines in Europe — and potentially the U.S. — could face serious disruptions.

Nexperia may not produce the most advanced semiconductors, but it manufactures high-volume automotive chips that control electronic systems in modern vehicles. Without them, automakers cannot assemble cars efficiently. Automakers used what is called “legacy chips,” and most have not changed even after the last chip shortage. The disruption could lead to short-term production slowdowns, with car plants in Europe, Japan, Korea, and potentially the U.S. reducing shifts, delaying vehicle launches, or postponing deliveries. BMW and Volkswagen in Germany are actively evaluating supply risks, while Ford, General Motors, Toyota, and Hyundai in the U.S. could see plants affected within weeks if chip shipments are delayed.

 Read more at CBT News

Novartis To Buy U.S. Biotech Firm Avidity Biosciences For About $12 Billion In Cash

Swiss pharmaceutical giant Novartis has agreed to buy biotechnology company Avidity Biosciences for about $12 billion, the company said Sunday. Novartis will pay Avidity shareholders $72 a share in cash, a premium of 46% to the company’s Friday closing price. The deal is expected to close in the first half of 2026, after Avidity spins out parts of its business, including its early-stage precision cardiology programs, the company said in a statement.

Avidity specializes in developing an innovative class of ribonucleic acid (RNA) therapeutics called antibody oligonucleotide conjugates. RNA-based therapeutics are a relatively new class of medications that work by altering how genes are expressed to treat or prevent diseases. The Avidity deal comes as Novartis ramps up its research and development division. The company earlier this year pledged to invest $23 billion to build out its U.S.-based infrastructure, which includes plans to construct a second R&D hub in San Diego. The pharmaceutical giant has also struck two key deals with Anthos Therapeutics and Regulus Therapeutics this year to boost its development and manufacturing of cardiovascular and kidney disease drugs.

Read more at Flight Plan

Texas Instruments Revenue Higher - Signals ‘Slower’ Semiconductor Market Recovery

Texas Instruments, a maker of chips for automobiles and personal electronics, reported revenue of $4.7 billion in the third quarter, up 14% over last year, driven by growth in both its analog and embedded processing segments. The overall semiconductor market continues to recover, however, at a “slower pace than prior upturns,” Texas Instruments CEO Haviv Ilan said on the earnings call. He assured investors that conditions are improving, saying that customer inventories are low and stock depletion activity is behind them.

Net income was $1.36 billion, unchanged from last year. Meanwhile, the company is moving forward with its Utah investments, while winding down its older 150-mm fabrication plants in Texas. It announced layoffs for 150 employees in the Dallas-Fort Worth area earlier this month, the Dallas Morning News reported.

Read more at Manufacturing Dive

Toyota September Output Grows For Fourth Straight Month, Aided By Strong US Demand

Toyota Motor on Monday said its worldwide production increased by more than 10% in September and rose for a fourth straight month, as both sales and output increased in the U.S., the Japanese automaker's top market. Toyota's global output for September grew 11% from a year earlier to 918,146 vehicles. Production for the month in the U.S. rose 29% due to robust demand for hybrids and a recovery from last year's production suspension of two models.

The world's largest automaker said production in Japan increased 9% and in China, it rose 16%. Global sales rose for the ninth consecutive month in September, advancing 3% to 879,314 vehicles, with U.S. sales up 14%, offsetting a 1% decrease in China and a 5% decline in Japan. Toyota has sold 7.8 million vehicles during the first nine months of the year, up 5% from a year earlier.

Read more at Reuters

Qualcomm Announces AI Chips To Compete With AMD And Nvidia

Qualcomm announced Monday that it will release new artificial intelligence accelerator chips, marking new competition for Nvidia, which has so far dominated the market for AI semiconductors. The AI chips are a shift from Qualcomm, which has thus far focused on semiconductors for wireless connectivity and mobile devices, not massive data centers. Qualcomm said that both the AI200, which will go on sale in 2026, and the AI250, planned for 2027, can come in a system that fills up a full, liquid-cooled server rack.

Qualcomm’s data center chips are based on the AI parts in Qualcomm’s smartphone chips called Hexagon neural processing units, or NPUs. The entry of Qualcomm into the data center world marks new competition in the fastest-growing market in technology: equipment for new AI-focused server farms.

Read more at CNBC

Blue Origin Expands Fla. Operations

America's exploration of the stars goes beyond NASA, as privately owned companies are an important part of the equation. That includes Blue Origin, an aerospace company that's expected to be part of NASA's future commercial space station. Blue Origin is now looking ahead with several projects, including a new rocket refurbishment facility and a payload processing facility, both at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station in Florida.

Blue Origin has a solid foothold in Florida, as the company has nearly 4,000 employees in the state. It's also invested over $2.3 billion through various partnerships with hundreds of local suppliers across the state. With 11 launch sites, Blue Origin has become a constant presence in Orlando, Melbourne, and Merritt Island. The company's Lunar 1 Plant at Rocket Park, near the Kennedy Space Center, is developing the Blue Moon Mark-2 lunar lander, as well as a transport vehicle for NASA.

Read more at Slash Gear

Workers Reject Boeing's Latest Offer After Nearly Three Months On Strike

Striking workers at Boeing Defense in the St. Louis area rejected the company's latest contract proposal on Sunday, sending a strike that has already delayed delivery of fighter jets and other programs into its 13th week. In a statement after the vote, union leadership said the company had failed to address the needs of the roughly 3,200 members of the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers (IAM) District 837.

The five-year offer was largely the same as offers previously rejected, opens new tab by union members. The company reduced the ratification bonus but added $3,000 in Boeing shares that vest over three years and a $1,000 retention bonus in four years. It also improved wage growth for workers at the top of the pay scale in the fourth year of the contract. IAM leaders have pressed the planemaker for higher retirement plan contributions and a ratification bonus closer to the $12,000 that Boeing gave to union members on strike last year in the company's commercial airplane division in the Pacific Northwest.

Read more at Manufacturing Dive

Kratos Awarded $68.3 Million Contract To Build Next-Generation Hypersonic Materials Testing Center

Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc., a technology company in defense, national security, and global markets, announced yesterday that it has been awarded a contract through the Department of War’s Industrial Base Analysis and Sustainment Program to design and build a state-of-the-art mid-tier arc jet and coupled fiber laser facility for hypersonic materials evaluation. Known internally to Kratos as Project Helios, the contract to Kratos for the leading technology facility has a total projected value of $68.3 million. Once complete, the facility will address current critical gaps in U.S. Defense Industrial Base capabilities by providing essential testing infrastructure for thermal protection systems used in hypersonic vehicles. Key benefits include: 

  • Material Development - Serve as a natural bridge for material development, transitioning materials from laboratory experiments to fielded system applications more efficiently.
  • Advancement of National Defense - Support critical needs for national defense through a comprehensive testing infrastructure.
  • Cost Reduction - Increase throughput while significantly reducing overall program costs.
  • Collaboration & Innovation - Demonstrates Kratos’ commitment to addressing high-priority defense requirements and providing long-term value.

Read more at The WSJ

Quote of the Day

“The end of law is not to abolish or restrain, but to preserve and enlarge freedom.”

John Locke - English Philosopher from his 'Second Treatise of Government' who died on this day in 1704.

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