Member Briefing October 29, 2025

Posted By: Harold King Daily Briefing,

Private Sector Created Nearly 15,000 Jobs A Week Over The Past Month, Preliminary ADP Data Shows

Private sector employers added an average 14,250 jobs per week over the past four weeks, according to new preliminary data being released by ADP, a turnaround from the negative September numbers. Stepping into the void created by the government shutdown, ADP will now release a four-week average weekly change in employment with a two-week lag every Tuesday. Today’s number is the four-week average ending Oct. 11. This preliminary data will be different from the better-known and closely followed National Employment Report, generally released on the Wednesday before the government’s payroll number. The NER measures the monthly change in job growth during the week that contains the 12th of the month and provides detail of job growth by sector.

The preliminary data, which can serve as a guide to the monthly data, offers a four-week moving average of weekly job growth. It will be revised monthly with the release of the NER. The 14,250 increase suggests monthly job growth totaled around 55,000 for the 4-week period, compared with a loss of -32,000 reported for September in the NER. However the total is subject to revision with the release of the NER.

Read more at CNBC

Consumer Confidence Continues To Weaken As Americans See Higher Inflation, Fewer Jobs Ahead

Consumer confidence in October slid for a third consecutive month, hitting its lowest level since April when President Trump’s tariff announcements sent shock waves through the economy. The latest index reading from The Conference Board showed a small 1.0 point decline on a monthly basis in October to 94.6 as consumers’ view of current business and labor conditions improved slightly. Short-term expectations for income, business, and labor market conditions, however, weakened by 2.9 points and continued to remain below a threshold “that typically signals a recession ahead,” The Conference Board said.

Confidence also diverged among consumers based on income level, another sign of a K-shaped economy. “Consumer confidence moved sideways in October, only declining slightly from its upwardly revised September level,” Stephanie Guichard, senior economist of global indicators at The Conference Board, said in a statement.

Read more at Wells Fargo

The Slow, Steady Global Steel Output Decline Continues

Global raw-steel production declined by 3.5 million metric tons, or -2.5%, from August to September, settling at 141.8 million metric tons as steelmakers continue to adjust their output to address ongoing weakness in demand as well as the more recent effects of the U.S. tariffs on imported steel. It was the fourth consecutive month-over-month decline. The September total is -1.6% less than the year-ago result, and it brings the 2025 year-to-date volume of raw steel output to 1.37 billion metric tons, a -1.6% decrease from January-September 2024. The advent of U.S. tariffs in April of this year - initially at 25%, now at 50% for almost all countries - have resulted in further declines in output among major steelmaking nations.

  • In China, the world’s largest producer and exporter of steel, the volume produced for September was 77.4 million metric tons, -5.3% less than August and -4.6% less than September 2024.
  • India is the world’s second-largest steelmaking nation, but its September total of 13.6 million metric tons was a -3.7% drop from August. Even so, that figure shows a 13.2% rise over August 2024, and it raises the annual output to 122.4 million metric tons.
  • In Japan, which as of 2024 was the world’s second-largest steel exporter and the world’s third-largest producer, September raw-steel output was 6.4 million metric tons, -3.1% less than in August and -3.7% less than in September 2024.
  • U.S. steelmakers produced 6.9 million metric tons (7.6 million short tons) of raw steel during September, -4.3% less than August but 6.7% more than in September 2024. The 61.4 million metric tons (67.7 million short tons) they have produced this year represent a 2.1% increase over last year’s nine-month result.
  • Russian steel production is estimated at 5.2 million metric tons, down -5.8% from August and down -3.8% from September 2024. That country, where much of the export activity is constrained by embargoes since the start of the war in Ukraine, has an estimated year-to-date production volume of 51.3 million metric tons, -4.7% less than last year’s comparable total.

Read more at American Machinist

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Senate Democrats Block Government Funding Bill For 13th Time

Senate Democrats on Tuesday voted for the 13th time to block a House-passed bill to reopen the federal government, despite a plea this week by the nation’s largest federal workers union to end the 28-day shutdown. The House-passed measure to fund the government through Nov. 21 failed by a 54-45 vote. It needed 60 votes to advance. Only three members of the Democratic caucus voted to advance the bill: Sens. John Fetterman (Pa.), Catherine Cortez Masto (Nev.) and Angus King (Maine), an independent who caucuses with Democrats.

Tuesday’s vote came amid growing pressure on Congress to reopen the government as it nears the 30-day mark. Lawmakers in both parties warn that Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program benefits will begin to expire on Nov. 1 and that airports around the country are experiencing more frequent delays because of the strain the shutdown is putting on air traffic controllers. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned over the weekend that the administration would not have enough money to cover the paychecks of military service members on Nov. 15.

Read more at The Hill

Pattern for Progress Q3 Hudson Valley Home Market Report: More Supply, Higher Prices

The Hudson Valley home market has transitioned into a new stage. For the first time in more than seven years, the nine-county region has seen three consecutive quarters in which the quantity of new listings and the total inventory of homes for sale both increased. The gains are modest. New listings and the total inventory of homes on the market both grew by about 100 to 200 homes compared to Q3 last year. This change is noteworthy because the Hudson Valley experienced six consecutive years of rising prices and declining stock for sale on the market. However, we should not expect regional market dynamics to change quickly.

Key Findings:

  • Median home prices increased everywhere except Dutchess County.
  • The median home price in Columbia County exceeded $500,000 for the first time. A typical home in Columbia now costs more than homes in Orange and Dutchess.
  • Sullivan County has the largest proportional increase in its median home price since 2019. Its median home price is up by a whopping 145%.
  • The median home price in every county surpassed $350,000 for the first time.

Read the Report at Pattern for Progress

Social Security Benefits Get a Historic 2.8% Cost of Living Adjustment in 2026

On Oct. 24, the Social Security Administration announced the official cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for 2026 despite the government shutdown. Retired workers and other recipients will receive an additional 2.8% in benefits next year to offset rising prices across the economy. That 2.8% COLA is three-tenths of a percentage point larger than the 2.5% pay increase beneficiaries received this year. It's also a historic figure because it brings the average COLA over the last four years to 4.6%, a level last seen four decades ago when oil shocks caused inflation to spike.

The size of Social Security's cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) in any given year depends on how the CPI-W (a subset of the Consumer Price Index) changed in the third quarter of the previous year. For instance, CPI-W inflation measured 2.8% in the third quarter of 2025, so Social Security benefits will increase 2.8% in 2026. The CPI-W assumes housing and medical care account for 42% and 7% of total spending, respectively, for the average person. But the average senior spends about 48% and 11% of their money, respectively, within those categories.

Read more at Yahoo Finance

New Oral GLP-1 Drugs Could Offer More Options For Weight Loss

Two new medications taken by mouth can help trim body weight in people living with obesity, scientists report in two studies published September 16 and 17 in the New England Journal of Medicine. Both are types of GLP-1 drugs, a class of medications that has soared in popularity in recent years and includes the brand name drugs Ozempic, Wegovy, Mounjaro and Zepbound. Today, nearly all GLP-1 drugs come in an injectable form; most patients use a needle-tipped pen to deliver the meds under the skin. And they must be refrigerated until use.

One recent trial tested orforglipron, an oral GLP-1 made by the pharmaceutical company Eli Lilly. The orforglipron trial followed more than 3,000 participants for up to 72 weeks. People on the highest dose lost an average of about 11 percent of their body weight. “I was very excited,” Sean Wharton, an obesity medicine clinician and researcher at the Wharton Medical Clinic in Ontario. Wharton says. The observed weight loss might not be as high as with some of the newer injectable GLP-1 medications, he says, but the oral pills offer “the potential of having an inexpensive, accessible drug.” A pill like orforglipron requires no injector pen and no refrigeration and it’s relatively easy to manufacture — all of which should cut costs. Today, injectable GLP-1 medications can run about $500 per month for patients paying out-of-pocket. It’s too early to know how much the pill will cost or how insurance companies might cover it, a Lilly spokesperson said.

Read more at Science News

Upcoming Council Programs

Events

2025 Annual Luncheon - November 21, 2025 -11:00 AM Expo, 12:00 Lunch. The Grandview, Poughkeepsie.

Networks

Environment Health & Safety Sub Council Meeting Topic TBD, November 13, 2025, 8:30 - 11:00. MPI, Poughkeepsie.

HR Sub Council Meeting Topic TBD, January 14, 2026, 8:15 - 11:00. Selux Corporation, Highland.

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2 Seats Left Lean Six Sigma: Yellow Belt - Yellow Belt is an approach to process improvement that merges the complementary concepts and tools from both Six Sigma and Lean approaches. 3 Full days - November 12, 13 & 14 - DCC Fishkill.

Trade Wars

 

U.S. Forms $1 Billion Partnership With AMD

The U.S. has formed a $1 billion partnership with Advanced Micro Devices to construct two supercomputers that will tackle large scientific problems ranging from nuclear power to cancer treatments to national security, Energy Secretary Chris Wright and AMD CEO Lisa Su told Reuters. The U.S. is building the two machines to ensure the country has enough supercomputers to run increasingly complex experiments that require harnessing enormous amounts of data-crunching capability. The machines can accelerate the process of making scientific discoveries in areas the U.S. is focused on.

The plans call for the first computer called Lux to be constructed and come online within the next six months. It will be based around AMD's MI355X artificial intelligence chips, and the design will also include central processors (CPUs) and networking chips made by AMD. The system is co-developed by AMD, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, Oracle Cloud Infrastructure and Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). ORNL Director Stephen Streiffer said the Lux supercomputer will deliver about three times the AI capacity of current supercomputers. The second, more advanced computer called Discovery will be based around AMD's MI430 series of AI chips that are tuned for high-performance computing. This system will be designed by ORNL, HPE and AMD. Discovery is expected to be delivered in 2028 and be ready for operations in 2029.

 Read more at Bloomberg

2025’s Incredible AI Spending Frenzy – A List of All the Investments of $1B Plus So Far This Year 

$375 billion. That’s how much global annual AI spending is expected to swell to by the end of the year, according to projections from UBS. The investment bank expects AI spending to reach $500 billion by 2026, with spending on power and resources for electricity demand topping $3 trillion annually by 2030. Companies will spend a combined $6.7 trillion on data centers through 2030, with most expenditures funding systems based around AI chips, according to estimates from the consulting firm McKinsey.

Economists have warned that a stream of investments into AI could disrupt the global market, with some equating today’s trading environment to the 2000 dot-com crash. Forbes asked several AI chatbots, including OpenAI’s ChatGPT and xAI’s Grok, about whether an AI bubble existed: Grok and ChatGPT signaled a bubble was present, while Perplexity and Microsoft Copilot suggested there were signs of an “emerging” bubble and Meta AI and Gemini said a bubble was “debatable.” Most of the chatbots pointed to likely unsustainable investor enthusiasm, while also noting there was nothing wrong with the technology or AI-related products.

Read more and see the spending timeline at Forbes

Lilly Partners With Nvidia On AI Supercomputer To Speed Up Drug Development

Eli Lilly said on Tuesday it was collaborating with Nvidia to build a supercomputer to help with drug discovery and shorten development cycles, getting medicines to people faster. Using the supercomputer, scientists at Lilly will be able to train AI models on millions of experiments to test potential medicines, expanding the scope of drug discovery efforts, the company said. A number of these proprietary AI models will be available on Lilly TuneLab, a federated artificial-intelligence and machine-learning platform that allows biotech companies access to drug discovery models trained on years of its research data.

Beyond discovery, Lilly plans to leverage the supercomputer to shorten drug development cycles. Additional applications include manufacturing, medical imaging and enterprise AI agents, Lilly said. Drug developers are increasingly adopting AI technologies for discovery and safety testing to get faster and cheaper results, in line with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration's push to reduce animal testing in the near future.

Read more at Reuters

Nvidia Will Build AI Supercomputers For US Energy Department, Announces Total Bookings Of $500 Billion

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said on Tuesday that the artificial intelligence chip leader will build seven new supercomputers for the U.S. Department of Energy, and said the company has $500 billion in bookings for its AI chips. The first company to be worth more than $4 trillion, Nvidia is at the core of the global rollout of AI. It is striking deals around the world while also navigating a U.S.-China trade war that could determine which country's technology is most used around the world.

The supercomputers Nvidia is building for the Energy Department will in part help the United States maintain and develop its nuclear weapons arsenal. The supercomputers will also be used to research alternative energy sources such as nuclear fusion. The largest of the supercomputers for the Department of Energy will be built with Oracle (ORCL.N), opens new tab and contain 100,000 of Nvidia's Blackwell chips. Nvidia also announced a partnership with Palantir Technologies, a company that works closely with the U.S. government. However, the focus of Nvidia's partnership was on Palantir's commercial business, where Nvidia will help it speed up solving logistics problems for companies such as home improvement retailer Lowe's. Such corporate work was a longtime stronghold of Intel.

Read more at Reuters

Amazon to Lay Off Up to 30,000 Corporate Workers

Amazon.com plans to lay off as many as 30,000 employees starting as early as today, according to people familiar with the matter, the latest cost-cutting move for the tech giant that is seeking to slim down and conserve cash. The job cuts, which won’t all happen this week, would amount to roughly 10% of the online giant’s corporate workforce, the people said. The latest round of job cuts would be the largest since 2022, when Amazon eliminated around 27,000 roles.

Amazon Chief Executive Andy Jassy has been on a yearslong campaign to cut expenses as the company ramped up spending on AI in the face of increased competition for its cloud-computing business. The company views the cuts in part as an effort to correct an aggressive hiring period during the pandemic, the people said. During that period, a boom in online shopping led Amazon to double its warehouse network over a two-year period, an expansion that created both blue- and white-collar positions. Earlier this month, Amazon showed off how investments in robots and AI could help drive down costs, boosting sales without the need for as many human workers.

Read more at the WSJ

Security Experts Offer Advice On How To Avoid A Cyber Shutdown That Crippled JLR Factories

As Jaguar Land Rover slowly begins its phased restart of vehicle production processes, the boardrooms of many global automakers must evaluate what they would do if they faced such a catastrophe, experts say. The British marque saw a total global shutdown in vehicle production for nearly 40 days after hackers broke into its computer systems, ultimately costing the automaker an estimated £2 billion ($2.67 billion) in lost revenues. That sort of loss would force any automaker’s board of directors to worry about an area few have so far taken very seriously.

According to Jon Connet, chief product officer at Aeris the JLR hack is a wake-up call for manufacturers to think about how they can transition from being cyber-reactive to cyber-resilient — especially where information technology (IT) and operational technology (OT) converge into a linked system. His take is that the problem stems from how companies manage these two systems — with IT often centered in the “carpeted” offices and the OT operating on the “uncarpeted” factory floor. Even with this divide, modern factory systems are always linked to the internet. IP addresses provide efficiencies and reduce the costs of production, Connet said, whether that’s by connecting a conveyor belt in a factory, an industrial robot or what’s commonly called a programmable logic controller. However, when the same IP address links multiple devices, the jump from hacking the “carpeted” part of the business to the “uncarpeted” factory floor is much easier for the cybercriminal.

Read more at Ward’s Auto

New-Vehicle Average Transaction Price Hits Record-High In September

The average new-vehicle transaction price was $50,080 in September, an increase of 3.6% from a year ago, according Cox Automotive. Kelly Blue Book is a Cox Automotive company. For perspective, the average new-vehicle transaction price in September 2019 was $37,590. That’s before the COVID-19 pandemic began in early 2020. Since then, vehicle prices are up for both the long- and short-term, according to Cox Automotive. More affluent buyers can afford to spend more on new vehicles, which is contributing to sales of higher-priced models.

Meanwhile, many price conscious consumers — including well-qualified ones with good credit — are turning to used vehicles instead. This is also “propping up the higher end of the market,” Keating said. Another long-term trend driving average vehicle prices higher is the switch from smaller and cheaper passenger cars to bigger and more expensive pickups, SUVs and crossovers. The trend reflects changing consumer tastes, but it also shows that domestic OEMs are essentially dropping unprofitable passenger cars in favor of more profitable trucks and SUVs.

Read more at Ward’s Automotive

Army Wants To Boost Funding For Its FUZE Program

The Army’s top acquisition official told DefenseScoop that he expects to see further growth in resources for the service’s FUZE initiative. FUZE, which was announced last month by Army Secretary Dan Driscoll, combines elements of multiple technology innovation programs — including the xTech, Small Business Innovation Research and Small Business Technology Transfer (SBIR/STTR), ManTech, and Technology Maturation Initiative efforts — under a more integrated framework to accelerate the delivery of new capabilities to soldiers, according to the service.

Driscoll said at the recent AUSA event that the Army’s goal with FUZE is to contract with startups that have never, ever worked with the United States Army before in just 60 to 70 days. And for companies that the Army has worked with that have prototypes, the intent is to contract in 10 and start “soldier iterations in 30 to 45 days,” he said. The Army has already aligned $750 million to this model under FUZE, according to Driscoll. Next year, it plans to raise that slightly to $765 million. Brent Ingraham, the new assistant secretary of the Army for acquisition, logistics and technology, said he anticipates that funding levels for those efforts will be higher in subsequent years.

Read more and listen at Fed Scoop

US Startup Substrate Announces Lithography Chipmaking Tool That It Says Will Rival ASML

Substrate, a small U.S. startup, said on Tuesday that it had developed a chipmaking tool capable of competing with the most advanced lithography equipment made by Dutch firm ASML. Substrate's tool is the first step in the startup's ambitious plan to build a U.S.-based contract chip-manufacturing business that would compete with Taiwan's TSMC in making the most advanced AI chips, its CEO James Proud told Reuters in an interview. Proud wants to slash the cost of chipmaking by producing the tools needed much more cheaply than rivals.

Substrate said that it has developed a version of lithography that uses X-ray light and is capable of printing features at resolutions that are comparable to the most advanced chipmaking tools made by ASML that cost more than $400 million apiece. The company said it has conducted demonstrations at U.S. National Laboratories and at its facilities in San Francisco. Developing an advance chipmaking process that could rival TSMC's costs billions of dollars and has been a challenge for the likes of Intel and Samsung to perfect. Chip factories today cost more than $15 billion to build and require specialized expertise to build and operate.

Read more at Yahoo Finance

Quote of the Day

"There are only two kinds of certain knowledge: Awareness of our own existence and the truths of mathematics."

 

Jean le Rond d'Alembert - French Mathematician, Physicist and Philosopher who died on this day in 1783.

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