Member Briefing October 30, 2025

Posted By: Harold King Daily Briefing,

Trump Meets With Xi. Agrees To Trim China Fentanyl Tariff By 10%.

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday he had agreed with President Xi Jinping to trim tariffs on China in exchange for Beijing cracking down on the illicit fentanyl trade, resuming U.S. soybean purchases and keeping rare earths exports flowing. Trump's face-to-face talks with Xi in the South Korean city of Busan, their first since 2019, marked the finale of a whirlwind Asia trip on which he also touted trade breakthroughs with South Korea, Japan and Southeast Asian nations.

Trump said tariffs on Chinese imports would be cut to 47% from 57%, by halving to 10% the rate of tariffs related to trade in fentanyl precursor drugs. Xi will work "very hard to stop the flow" of fentanyl, a deadly synthetic opioid that is the leading cause of American overdose deaths, Trump said.

China agreed to pause export controls unveiled this month on rare earths, elements with vital roles in cars, planes and weapons that have become Beijing's most potent source of leverage in its trade war with the United States. The pause would last for a year, China's commerce ministry said in a statement. It added that the two sides had also reached consensus on expanding agricultural trade and would work to resolve issues around short video app TikTok, which Trump seeks to bring under U.S.-controlled ownership.

Read more at Reuters

Fed Cuts Rates For The Second Time This Year, Will End Balance Sheet Run-Off In December

The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates at its second consecutive meeting on Wednesday, extending an effort to prevent a recent slowdown in hiring from turning into something more serious. The latest quarter-point cut will reduce the Fed’s benchmark short-term interest rate to a range between 3.75% and 4%, the lowest setting in three years. The Fed approved the rate cut on a 10-2 vote. Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid voted against the decision because he favored no change in rates, while Fed governor Stephen Miran dissented in favor of a larger half-point cut.

Separately, officials agreed to stop their 3½-year campaign to shrink the Fed’s $6.6 trillion asset portfolio on Dec. 1. That effort had been designed to passively unwind pandemic stimulus. Officials long said they would cease the runoff of their Treasury holdings when they detected evidence in overnight lending markets that banks were no longer awash in surplus cash. Those signals have mounted over the past week. The Fed will continue to shrink its holdings of mortgage-backed securities, but it will replace maturing bonds with short-term Treasury bills starting in December.

Read more at the WSJ

Global Firms Slash Jobs Amid Weak Sentiment, AI Push

Companies around the globe have ramped up job cuts, with blue-chips from Amazon to Nestle (and UPS reining in spending while consumer sentiment dims and AI-focused tech companies start to replace jobs with automation. According to a Reuters tally, American companies have announced more than 25,000 job cuts this month, not including UPS's 48,000 figure, which dates from the beginning of 2025. In Europe, the total tops 20,000, with Nestlé accounting for the bulk after last week’s 16,000-role reduction.

Amazon said it would cut up to 14,000 jobs from its corporate workforce, joining Target, Procter & Gamble and others in axing thousands of office roles. Reuters reported on Monday as many as 30,000 Amazon jobs could be eliminated. The reasons for the cuts vary, but what stands out is the focus by companies like Amazon and Target on white-collar roles seen as vulnerable to AI-driven automation, rather than those on shop or factory floors. Some analysts say Amazon's move could be an early sign of deeper structural shifts as companies push to justify billions spent on AI tools.

Read more at Reuters

US Mortgage Rates Fall to 6.3%, Boosting Purchase Activity

Mortgage interest rates dropped for the fourth straight week last week, spurring both current homeowners and potential homebuyers to call their lenders. Total mortgage application volume increased 7.1% compared with the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances, $806,500 or less, decreased to 6.30% from 6.37%, with points falling to 0.58 from 0.59, including the origination fee, for loans with a 20% down payment. That is the lowest level since September 2024.

Refinance demand, which is most sensitive to interest rate changes, jumped 9% for the week and was 111% higher than the same week one year ago. The average loan size of a refinance application remained elevated at $393,900, as borrowers with larger loans can see more savings on a refinance. Applications for a mortgage to purchase a home rose 5% for the week and were 20% higher than the same week one year ago. Homebuyers are still facing high prices and increasing uncertainty on the economy.

Read more at Bloomberg

Middle East

Ukraine

Other Headlines

Government Shutdown Could Lead To $14B In Lost GDP, CBO Reports

The ongoing federal shutdown could cost the U.S. economy between $7 billion and $14 billion, according to a new report from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office. The report, prepared in response to a request from House Budget Chair Jodey Arrington (R-Texas), estimated the economic impact of the shutdown if it lasts four weeks — a mark hit Wednesday — six weeks, or two months.

The CBO also anticipates that real GDP will be anywhere from 1 to 2 percentage points lower in the fourth quarter of 2025 than it would have been if the government remained open. “The effects of the shutdown on the economy are uncertain. Those effects depend on decisions made by the Administration throughout the shutdown,” CBO Director Phillip Swagel wrote in the report. The economic impacts of the shutdown will also be exacerbated when the federal government ceases disbursements of Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program benefits beginning Nov. 1, per the CBO.

Read more at Politico

Poll Shows Stefanik in Statistical Tie with Hochul In NY Gov Race

Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) is leading incumbent New York Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) in the New York gubernatorial race, according to polling. In a poll released Tuesday, the Manhattan Institute, a conservative think tank, finds Stefanik getting 43 percent support compared to Hochul’s 42 percent — a statistical tie that still gives the House Republican a slight edge. Nine percent of those surveyed said they support someone else, while 7 percent said they are “not sure.”

The results mark a major reversal from just a couple of months ago, when an August Siena College poll showed Hochul with a 14-point lead over Stefanik. The two have targeted each other in recent remarks and ads, with the GOP representative slamming Hochul for endorsing New York City Democratic mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani. The same Manhattan Institute survey found Mamdani holding a commanding lead over former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who is running as an Independent.

Read more at The Hill

Democrats Wobble As Pressure To End Shutdown Ramps Up

Senate Democrats are taking a close look at a Republican proposal to pay all federal employees — including essential and furloughed workers — as they’re under new pressure from the nation’s largest federal workers union to pass a clean continuing resolution to reopen the government. They also plan to introduce legislation to pay for Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits and extend funding for the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children, which provides essential nutrition assistance for lower income mothers.

Publicly, Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer (N.Y.) and his leadership team are sticking to their arguments that President Trump needs to start negotiating on health insurance subsidies before they agree to reopen the government. At the same time, Democrats are feeling intense pressure to end the shutdown in a way that gives them a political win — or at least a face-saving off-ramp from the stalemate that has stalled Washington for nearly 30 days.

Read more at The Hill

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How 'Neurodivergent' Became A Word For Many Types Of Minds

Despite all the research into our brains, a lot has yet to be discovered. But in recent years, many people have championed a way to describe some of what we do know. And that way is through the term "neurodivergent," which took off on Google trends amid widespread coronavirus lockdowns in June 2020. Since the pandemic, "neurodivergent" has made waves online, in the media and in academic studies to help talk about neurological differences more inclusively.

Neurodivergent is an umbrella term that describes people whose way of processing information is different from what society considers normal. There is a widespread belief that "neurodivergent" is a medical term, limited to diagnoses such as autism or attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder. "It super is not," said neurodivergence activist Kassiane Asasumasu, who is credited with coming up with the word. But "neurodiversity" began being used as a synonym for autism, and everyone else was deemed neurotypical. Asasumasu said while "neurodiversity" was progressive, it wasn't enough.

Read more at NPR

Upcoming Council Programs

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2025 Annual Luncheon - November 21, 2025 -11:00 AM Expo, 12:00 Lunch. The Grandview, Poughkeepsie.

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Environment Health & Safety Sub Council Meeting Topic TBD, November 13, 2025, 8:30 - 11:00. MPI, Poughkeepsie.

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2 Seats Left Lean Six Sigma: Yellow Belt - Yellow Belt is an approach to process improvement that merges the complementary concepts and tools from both Six Sigma and Lean approaches. 3 Full days - November 12, 13 & 14 - DCC Fishkill.

Trade Wars

Microsoft Hit With Azure, 365 Outage Ahead Of Quarterly Earnings Report

Microsoft was hit with outages in its Azure cloud and 365 services on Wednesday, hours before the company’s scheduled earnings release. Users on social media reported problems accessing their sites and services running on Microsoft’s products, and the company’s websites, including its investor relations page, were down. The problems began around 11:40 a.m. ET, according to Downdetector, which relies on user reports.

The service disruptions come a little over a week after larger rival Amazon Web Services reported a major outage that took down numerous websites. Throughout the day on Oct. 20, AWS said it observed “increased error rates” for customers when trying to launch new instances in EC2, its popular cloud service that provides virtual server capacity. In March, Microsoft suffered an outage over a weekend that left tens of thousands of users unable to access their Outlook email accounts and other programs.

Read more at Tom’s Hardware

Hasbro, Mattel Signal Retail Orders To Bounce Back For The Holidays

Toy makers Hasbro and Mattel faced challenges from delays in retail orders during the third quarter, but are starting to see early signs of a bounceback for the holiday season. Orders have “accelerated significantly” since the beginning of the month, Mattel CEO Ynon Kreiz said in an earnings call Oct. 21. Prior to that, delays in ordering patterns weighed on the company’s Q3 sales, which were $1.7 billion, down 6% from last year.

Meanwhile, Hasbro has seen sales momentum build over “probably the last seven to eight weeks,” CEO Chris Cocks said in a separate earnings call. Excluding growth from its Wizards of the Coast brand and digital gaming, Hasbro’s consumer products revenue declined 7% YoY and operating profit fell 32%.

Read more at Manufacturing Dive

Boeing Stems Cash Burn For First Time Since 2023 But Takes $4.9 Billion Charge On 777X Delays

Boeing said Wednesday its jetliner deliveries drove it back into cash-positive territory for the first time in nearly two years but it took a $4.9 billion charge on additional delays of its long-awaited 777X wide-body plane. The 777X, an updated version of its 777 plane, took its first flight nearly six years ago but still hasn’t won regulator approval. Boeing says it now expects the first delivery in 2027, leading to the non-cash charge. Still, Boeing is on track to deliver the most aircraft this year since 2018, before two crashes grounded its best-selling jetliner, the Covid pandemic hit supply chains and a host of manufacturing crises drove years of losses at the top U.S. exporter.

Boeing lost $4.78 billion, or $7.14 a share, in the three months ended Sept. 30. That’s better than a $5.76 billion loss a year earlier. On an adjusted basis, the company reported a loss of $7.47 a share. Revenue jumped 30% to $23.27 billion for the third quarter, up from $17.84 billion a year ago and ahead of analysts’ estimates. The company generated free cash flow of $238 million, its first time in the black on that metric since late 2023.

Read more at CNBC

More Earnings of Note

CVS Health on Wednesday reported third-quarter earnings and revenue that blew past estimates and raised its adjusted profit outlook, as the company sees improvement in its insurance unit. Earnings per share were $1.60 adjusted and revenue was $102.87 billion. The company posted net loss of $3.99 billion, or $3.13 per share, for the third quarter. That compares with net income of $71 million, or 7 cents per share, for the same period a year ago. In a release, CVS said the loss reflects the goodwill impairment charge related to the health care delivery reporting unit, which has “continued to experience challenges which have impacted its ability to grow the business at the rate previously estimated.” - CNBC

Caterpillar’s third-quarter net income fell as higher costs offset robust growth in revenue and demand for the manufacturer’s heavy machinery. The Irving, Tex., maker of mining and construction machinery posted earnings of $2.3 billion, or $4.88 a share, down from $2.46 billion, or $5.06 a share, a year earlier. Caterpillar logged adjusted earnings of $4.95 a share,. Revenue rose 10% to $17.64 billion. Cost of goods sold rose 16% to $11.67 billion. Sales of construction equipment rose 7% to $6.76 billion. Mining equipment sales rose 2% to $3.11 billion. Energy and transportation unit sales surged 17% to $8.4 billion. - WSJ

Adidas reported record quarterly revenue, but warned of persistent volatility in the U.S. because of President Trump’s tariffs. The German sporting-goods company posted revenue of 6.63 billion euros ($7.73 billion) for the three months through September, 12% higher than a year earlier and in line with preliminary results that Adidas released last week. The company expects US import tariffs to have a direct impact of $140 million on its operating profit in 2025, with the largest hit coming in fourth quarter. The news sent the sports and apparel company's shares down by 3% on Wednesday. - WSJ

Verizon beat Wall Street estimates for quarterly profit and wireless subscriber additions on Wednesday, as promotions around the recent iPhone launches helped the U.S. wireless service provider attract more customers. Verizon reaffirmed its profit and free cash flow forecast for the full year and said it expects capital expenditures to be within or below the previously guided range of $17.5 billion to $18.5 billion. The company added 44,000 total monthly bill-paying wireless subscribers in the third quarter, compared with expectations for 19,000 additions. Total revenue for the quarter was $33.8 billion. On an adjusted basis, Verizon earned $1.21 per share. Yahoo Finance

Nucor Corporation reported earnings of $2.63 per share for the third quarter of 2025, up from $1.05 in the year-ago quarter. The company recorded net sales of $8,521 million, up around 14.5% year over year. Total sales tons to outside customers for steel mills in the third quarter were 4,976,000 tons, up 8% year over year. The figure missed our estimate of 5,095,000 tons. Overall operating rates at the company's steel mills increased to 85% in the third quarter of 2025, flat sequentially and up from 75% in the third quarter of 2024.- Yahoo Finance

Meta on Wednesday reported third quarter earnings beating expectations on revenue but falling short on earnings per share due to a one-time, tax-related charge and increased capital expenditures this year and in 2026 due to its AI buildout. For Q3, Meta saw earnings per share of $1.05 and revenue of $51.24 billion versus expectations of EPS of $6.72 on revenue of $49.6 billion, according to Bloomberg consensus estimates. – Yahoo Finance

Alphabet reported third-quarter earnings that beat analyst expectations. Revenue was $102.35 billion and earnings per share were $3.10 Wall Street was also watching several other numbers in the report. YouTube advertising revenue was $10.26 billion vs. $10.01 billion, according to StreetAccount. Google Cloud revenue was $15.15 billion vs. $14.74 billion, according to StreetAccount. Alphabet reported solid momentum in its cloud business, thanks to strong demand for artificial intelligence. The company also announced an increase in expected capital expenditures for the fiscal year 2025. CNBC

Microsoft reported better-than-expected results for its fiscal first quarter as revenue in the company’s Azure cloud business jumped 40%. The stock slipped in extended trading. Earnings per share were $4.13 adjusted and revenue was $77.67 billion. Revenue increased 18% in the fiscal first quarter from $65.6 billion a year ago, according to a release. Net income rose to $27.7 billion, or $3.72 per share, from $24.67 billion, or $3.30 per share, during the same period last year. Microsoft said its investment in OpenAI resulted in a $3.1 billion hit to net income in the quarter, equivalent to 41 cents per share. CNBC

Nvidia Becomes First $5 Trillion Company In History

Nvidia on Wednesday became the first company in history to be valued above $5 trillion. Nvidia stock rose as much as 3.4% at the market open, pushing its market capitalization above $5 trillion for the first time as the chip giant continues to be the biggest winner from the AI boom. The company reached the milestone after comments from President Trump on Wednesday ahead of a planned meeting with CEO Jensen Huang added to optimism around prospects for Nvidia's sales in China.

In its most recent quarterly report on Aug. 27, Nvidia said it realized no sales of its earlier-generation H20 chips into China. In July, the White House said it had struck a deal with Nvidia to allow H20 chip exports to China in exchange for a 15% cut of revenue. Nvidia said that arrangement had not yet been formalized. Nvidia's rise on Wednesday also comes after a 5% jump in the stock on Tuesday, which was catalyzed by a slew of announcements from the company at its GTC event in Washington, D.C.

Read more at Yahoo Finance

Texas Sues Tylenol Makers After Trump Links Drug To Autism

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton on Tuesday announced a lawsuit against Johnson & Johnson and Kenvue, alleging the companies deceptively marketed their Tylenol drug to pregnant mothers while knowing the drug posed an increased risk of autism, an unproven link President Donald Trump made last month. In his lawsuit, Paxton alleges Johnson & Johnson violated consumer protection laws by being aware that acetaminophen, the active ingredient in Tylenol, posed risks to the brain development of children before it “deceptively marketed” Tylenol to pregnant women.

“Acetaminophen is the safest pain reliever option for pregnant women as needed throughout their entire pregnancy,” Kenvue told Forbes in a statement, adding they will “vigorously defend ourselves against these claims.” Johnson & Johnson did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Read more at Forbes

General Motors Lays Off Thousands of Electric-Vehicle Workers in U.S. Plants

GM plans to lay off more than 3,300 hourly workers at plants across Michigan, Ohio and Tennessee starting in January. Of those, more than 1,700 are being laid off indefinitely, while more than 1,500 are expected to be called back in mid-2026. The automaker said that battery plants it jointly owns with LG Energy Solution in Ohio and Tennessee will be idled starting Jan. 5 and that it plans to resume production in mid-2026.

GM is also placing about 1,200 of the 3,400 workers at its dedicated EV assembly plant in Detroit on indefinite layoff. The Detroit EV plant, which typically runs on two shifts, is idle until Nov. 24. Starting next year, it will operate on only one shift. GM Chief Executive Mary Barra has said that EVs remain the company’s “North Star” even as it scrambles to reduce its output in the short term.

Read more at Yahoo Finance

‘67’ Is Dictionary.com’s Word Of The Year—But What Does The Viral Phrase Mean?

Members of Generation Alpha are yelling the numbers “six, seven” so much that Dictionary.com declared the viral number as its word of the year for 2025, even though the phrase—which comes from a popular song by the rapper Skrilla—doesn’t have much of a meaning. Dictionary.com crowned “67” word of the year Wednesday morning, stating few other slang terms have captured the mood of 2025 quite like the viral number—though it acknowledged the term doesn’t mean much.

“It's part inside joke, part social signal and part performance,” Steve Johnson, Dictionary Media Group’s directory of lexicography said, adding, “When people say it, they're not just repeating a meme; they're shouting a feeling.” The phrase “six, seven,” is essentially meaningless, and Skrilla has admitted as much, telling the Wall Street Journal: “I never put an actual meaning on it, and I still would not want to,” claiming the absence of meaning is “why everybody keeps saying it.”

Read more at Forbes

Quote of the Day

“There is nothing which I dread so much as a division of the republic into two great parties, each arranged under its leader, and concerting measures in opposition to each other. This, in my humble apprehension, is to be dreaded as the greatest political evil under our Constitution.”

John Adams -  Founding Father and Second President of the United States who was born on this day in 1735.

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