Member Briefing October 9, 2025

Posted By: Harold King Daily Briefing,

The Unofficial Jobs Numbers Are In and It’s Rough Out There

A host of alternative jobs data from Wall Street are pointing in the same direction: The U.S. labor market is losing steam. These numbers are getting more attention while the federal government shutdown keeps the lights off at the Bureau of Labor Statistics, delaying new data in an unsettled time for the jobs market.

  • Bank of America this week said it is seeing signs of rising unemployment and slowing job growth in its customers’ data.
  • Private-equity company Carlyle Group, extrapolating from companies in which it owns stakes, said Tuesday that it thinks overall U.S. jobs growth slid in September from an already weak official reading in August.
  • Goldman Sachs said its measure of labor-market tightness fell last month back to levels seen in 2015, indicating a tough landscape for job seekers.
  • These follow a report from payroll processor ADP last week that said U.S. employers shed private-sector jobs last month.

These and other alternative data sources have their drawbacks—they often only cover a small share of the labor force and using them to estimate the state of the broader job market can be tricky. These numbers don’t always match with government data, though the government numbers themselves have seen some steep revisions lately as the BLS struggles with falling response rates to its surveys. Still, the nongovernment numbers are telling the same basic story about a job market that has cooled since the spring: Few companies are hiring.

Read more at the WSJ

Wells Fargo Growth Raises Forecast for US Economy

Wells Fargo economists have become modestly more constructive on their outlook for economic growth and now expect U.S. real GDP to expand 2.0% in 2025 and 2.3% in 2026 on an annual average basis, a bit stronger than their September update. The forecast for growth in 2027 remains essentially unchanged at 2.3%. The upgraded growth forecast follows stronger readings on consumer spending. Although some U.S. consumer segments are under stress against a backdrop of weaker real income growth, the latest spending data point to aggregate personal consumption expenditures growing at an annualized rate of 3.0% in Q3-2025, an accelerated pace from the first half of the year.

Growth in business investment, in part due to robust AI and other high-tech investment, is another short-run support factor. However, the headwinds from elevated capital costs, trade policy changes and increased uncertainty will likely become more evident as 2025 rounds to a close. Inflation remains above the FOMC's 2% target. The core PCE deflator was up 2.9% year-over-year in August. Services prices continue to moderate, while higher goods prices are exerting an upward force on inflation. The Banks maintain its view that the FOMC will "look through" a temporary uptick in inflation from tariffs and put more weight on the downside risks to the labor market. They continue to see a 25 basis point cut at both the October and December FOMC meetings, with two additional 25 bps rate reductions in the first half of 2026. This would bring the terminal federal funds rate range to 3.00%-3.25% by the middle of next year.

Read more at Wells Fargo

How Businesses Are Already Feeling Shutdown Pain

Just a week into the U.S. government shutdown, businesses nationwide are starting to feel the pain. An Alameda, Calif., medical-device company postponed a planned spinoff, unable to pursue regulatory approvals. A Florida marketing company laid off five employees after receiving a stop-work order on a federal contract. A Minnesota subcontractor is trying to keep a half-dozen electricians working while it waits for a stalled government contract.

The shutdown is disrupting business as usual in many ways—and reinforcing just how many private-sector operations depend on a federal bureaucracy humming on all cylinders. Government-backed small-business lending has ground to a halt. Agencies can’t award or make payments on many new contracts. Scheduled workplace-safety inspections are on hold and so are many regulatory reviews. Some economists worry the pain could spread to the broader economy if the stalemate stretches into weeks. The shutdown could cut annual economic growth by as much as 0.2 percentage point for every week it lasts, the consulting firm Oxford Economics estimates.

Read more at the WSJ

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Pressure Points: 5 Ways The Shutdown Could End

Congress on Wednesday enters the eighth day of the federal shutdown with neither party giving an inch and the path to a resolution nowhere in sight. But something will have to give if lawmakers hope to reopen the government in any timely fashion, and that movement will likely be the result of external forces exerting pressure on one party — or both of them — to break the deadlock.

  • Public sentiment - Among the most recycled quotes on Capitol Hill is attributed to Abraham Lincoln: “Public sentiment is everything.” The trouble, in these early stages of the shutdown fight, is that the verdict is still out on where that sentiment will land.
  • Air traffic controller issues - It was nearly seven years ago that the 35-day shutdown ended after travel chaos and short-staffing of air traffic controllers brought immense strain on the aviation sector — and trouble is already starting up again.
  • Frozen paychecks - The central, defining factor of any shutdown is the scaling back of federal services and the siloing of hundreds of thousands of federal employees. Some of those workers are deemed “essential,” meaning they still have to come to work, while others are furloughed, meaning they’ll stay at home.
  • Military paychecks - Pay for members of the military has been a constant talking point in past shutdowns, and that’s no different this go-around.
  • Health care factors - Democrats have made health care the lynchpin of their opposition to the Republicans’ short-term spending bill, demanding a permanent extension of enhanced Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies set to expire at the end of the year.

Read more at The Hill

Anthropic Is Letting Social Workers From Hundreds Of Government Agencies Use Its AI For Paperwork

Paperwork is one of the biggest stumbling blocks to meaningful social work, the kind that places at-risk kids in loving families. The process of gathering and filling out forms for court documents, family assessments, referrals for housing programs and more delays the actual work of supporting and improving the wellbeing of those in need. Anthropic thinks AI can help. The company has partnered with Binti, a startup providing a digital platform for more than 12,000 social workers across some 550 government social service agencies, to build out new tools to help them manage their cases more easily.

One feature will transcribe recordings of social workers’ meetings with families (with their consent), and use that information to fill in paperwork like administrative reports. The social worker can also upload handwritten case notes that the AI can use to fill in forms. They must then approve the AI-generated draft or make changes, to ensure the software didn’t insert any errors. Another feature will let social workers upload everything related to a case, including forms, notes, case data and agency policies. Then the worker can “chat” with their case to ask it questions and get quick answers without having to sort through hundreds of pages of documents.

Read more at Forbes

Trump Administration Considers Selling Federal Student Loan Debt To Private Market, Report Says

Senior officials at the Treasury and Education Departments have discussed the proposal with finance industry executives and are considering possibly hiring an outside firm or bank to analyze the value of the portfolio, Politico reported, citing three unnamed sources familiar with the discussions. The discussions come as the Trump administration has gotten rid of some borrower protections, including restarting collections on defaulted student loans that were paused during the COVID-19 pandemic, and experts have raised concerns that private lenders might not be as forgiving to borrowers as the federal government.

Private investors likely wouldn’t be willing to pay more than the loans are worth, since their value is tied to abilities the private market doesn’t have, such as unlimited time to collect loans and immunity from lawsuits, experts told Politico. The federal government has also sought to reduce the size and responsibilities of the Education Department, which currently oversees the student loan portfolio—in signing an executive order to close the agency, Trump said “the Department of Education is not a bank, and it must return bank functions to an entity equipped to serve America’s students.” The order also instructs the Small Business Administration to take over the federal student loan portfolio, though the transfer would require congressional approval.

Read more at Forbes

New Oral GLP-1 Drugs Could Offer More Options For Weight Loss

Two new medications taken by mouth can help trim body weight in people living with obesity, scientists report in two studies published September 16 and 17 in the New England Journal of Medicine. Both are types of GLP-1 drugs, a class of medications that has soared in popularity in recent years and includes the brand name drugs Ozempic, Wegovy, Mounjaro and Zepbound. Today, nearly all GLP-1 drugs come in an injectable form; most patients use a needle-tipped pen to deliver the meds under the skin. And they must be refrigerated until use.

One recent trial tested orforglipron, an oral GLP-1 made by the pharmaceutical company Eli Lilly. The orforglipron trial followed more than 3,000 participants for up to 72 weeks. People on the highest dose lost an average of about 11 percent of their body weight. “I was very excited,” Sean Wharton, an obesity medicine clinician and researcher at the Wharton Medical Clinic in Ontario. Wharton says. The observed weight loss might not be as high as with some of the newer injectable GLP-1 medications, he says, but the oral pills offer “the potential of having an inexpensive, accessible drug.” A pill like orforglipron requires no injector pen and no refrigeration and it’s relatively easy to manufacture — all of which should cut costs. Today, injectable GLP-1 medications can run about $500 per month for patients paying out-of-pocket. It’s too early to know how much the pill will cost or how insurance companies might cover it, a Lilly spokesperson said.

Read more at Science News

Upcoming Council Programs

Events

2025 Annual Luncheon - November 21, 2025 -11:00 AM Expo, 12:00 Lunch. The Grandview, Poughkeepsie.

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HR Sub Council Meeting Topic TBD, 8:15 - 11:00. Selux Corporation, Highland.

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Training

FILLING FAST Introduction to Lean with Simulation - This full-day Lean Foundations course, led by Vin Buonomo from RIT CQAS, is designed as a starting point for those interested in Lean certification—including Yellow Belt and Green Belt. October 28, 2025 - Location TBD.

FILLING FAST Lean Six Sigma: Yellow Belt - Yellow Belt is an approach to process improvement that merges the complementary concepts and tools from both Six Sigma and Lean approaches. 3 Full days - November 12, 13 & 14 - DCC Fishkill.

Trade Wars

 

Nobel Prize in Chemistry Awarded to Architects of Metal-Organic Frameworks

Susumu Kitagawa, Richard Robson, and Omar M. Yaghi were awarded the Nobel Prize in Chemistry on Wednesday for the development of molecular building blocks with spaces large enough that gases and other chemicals can flow through them. The cavities on the inside are “almost like rooms in a hotel, so that guest molecules can enter and also exit again from the same material,” Heiner Linke, chair of the Nobel Committee for Chemistry, said during the announcement of the award. The laureates’ discoveries, he added, pave the way for the creation of materials that can separate toxic chemicals from wastewater or harvest water molecules in a desert.

Richard Robson is a professor at the University of Melbourne in Australia, where he has taught since 1966. Susumu Kitagwa received his Ph.D. in 1979 from Kyoto University in Japan, where he now teaches. Omar M. Yaghi received his Ph.D. from the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign and is a professor at the University of California, Berkeley. Dr. Yaghi was born to Palestinian refugees who settled in Jordan, and moved to New York for college, first at Hudson Valley Community College in Troy. He switched to the State University of New York at Albany in 1983.

Read more at the NYT

Tax Credits Are Gone But Cheaper EVs Are Coming

Sales of electric vehicles in the U.S. surged in the third quarter as buyers rushed to take advantage of the $7,500 federal tax credit for new EVs that phased out on Sept. 30. That pushed the segment to a best-ever 10.5% market share during the three-month period, according to media reports. And companies including Tesla, General Motors, Ford and Hyundai all posted big spikes in demand for their battery-powered models. But there’s also concern the quarterly spike was a one-off event and that sales in the fourth quarter and beyond could taper off sharply.

but there are also indications that automakers are compensating by rolling out lower-priced models and keeping lease deals affordable. An even more helpful move could be Hyundai’s decision to slash prices for its Georgia-built Ioniq 5 by as much as $9,800, setting the base price for the electric hatchback at just $35,000 (slightly above the South Korean brand’s Kona EV, at about $33,000). Nissan is rolling out a restyled version of its Leaf with a starting price just below $30,000 that offers 300 miles of range per charge. GM is also preparing to sell a revamped version of its battery-powered Chevrolet Bolt in early 2026 that’s expected to have a base price below $30,000. The company’s EV sales surge this quarter was led by its electric Equinox compact crossover, which starts at about $35,000, in line with what similarly sized gasoline-powered models sell for. Add in Tesla’s Model 3 sedan, starting at $42,490, and Kia’s EV6 crossover, priced from $43,000, and U.S. consumers have a growing number of options that are all less expensive than the current average new vehicle price of just over $49,000.

Read more at Forbes

Boeing Set To Win Conditional EU Okay For $4.7 Billion Spirit Deal, Sources Say

Boeing is set to gain EU antitrust approval for its $4.7 billion acquisition of Spirit AeroSystems with remedies to address EU concerns expected to include sales of some of the latter's businesses, people with direct knowledge of the matter said.Boeing announced the deal in July last year, aiming to streamline its operations and improve quality control, years after spinning off the key airline supplier.

Boeing's remedies to address EU competition worries are expected to be those the companies announced at the time of the acquisition agreement, the people said. These are the sale of Spirit's loss-making Europe-focused activities to Airbus (AIR.PA), opens new tab and the divestment of Spirit's operations in Prestwick, Scotland, and in Subang, Malaysia, that support Airbus programmes, as well as those in Belfast that do not support Airbus programmes. The European Commission, which acts as the EU's competition enforcer, is scheduled to make a decision by October 14.

Read more at Reuters

Amkor Expands Arizona Semiconductor Campus Investment To $7B

Amkor Technology has broken ground on a new semiconductor packaging and testing campus in Peoria, Arizona, the company announced Monday. Construction is expected to be finished in mid-2027, and production is slated to begin in early 2028. The company expanded its total investment to $7 billion across two phases. The Arizona campus will include packaging and testing facilities along with 750,000 square feet of cleanroom space.

Amkor will collaborate with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. to supply chips to customers such as Apple and Nvidia. Its campus will complement TSMC’s nearby wafer fabrication site. The testing and packaging campus, combined with TSMC’s fabs, create “an end-to-end silicon supply chain in America,” Apple COO Sabih Khan said in a statement. TSMC produces Apple silicon, and Amkor’s new facilities will package and test the chips, Khan said.

Read more at Manufacturing Dive

Ho Hos and Twinkies - JM Smucker To Spend Over $120M On Hostess Plant Expansion

J.M. Smucker plans to spend $120 million to expand production at its Hostess manufacturing plant in Columbus, Georgia. The investment will go toward the construction of a new building, renovation of certain areas of the facility and new equipment, according to Pace Halter, chairman of Choose Columbus, the city’s economic development group.  Construction to support the expanded capacity has begun and is expected to be completed by early 2027. The food giant said the investment will create at least 48 new jobs.

Hostess, which makes Twinkies, Donettes and Ho Hos, was purchased by Smucker two years ago for $5.6 billion to help build the jam maker’s presence in indulgent snacking and add more consumer occasions focused on convenience. But since then, inflation, economic uncertainty and the growing use of appetite-suppressing GLP-1 drugs have weighed on the brand.  Barron’s noted that Smucker has taken nearly $2 billion in write-downs related to its Hostess investment. Similar to other food and beverage companies, Smucker has been opening, expanding and closing facilities to meet demand for its products and improve the efficiency of its supply chain.

Read more at Manufacturing Dive

SoftBank to Buy ABB's Robot Business For $5.4 Billion In Push To Merge AI And Robotics

SoftBank Group has agreed to buy the robotics business of Swiss engineering group ABB in a $5.4 billion deal, as the Japanese investor forges ahead with a strategy to fuse robotics and artificial intelligence. The acquisition, announced on Wednesday, is the latest by founder and CEO Masayoshi Son to establish Softbank as a core player in the development of artificial intelligence. ABB announced to shareholders in April its decision to spin off robotics but decided to sell instead because the SoftBank deal provided money immediately, ABB CEO Morten Wierod told Reuters.

ABB's robotics division, which employs 7,000 people, generated sales of $2.3 billion last year, equivalent to 7% of ABB's total revenues. But the company saw limited crossover with the rest of its business, which focuses primarily on electrification and automation. SoftBank pushed into humanoid robotics a decade ago with its Pepper robot but later scaled back its ambitions. Its recent investments in the sector include Berkshire Grey and AutoStore, and it also led a $40 billion funding round in ChatGPT-maker OpenAI and in March bought chip design company Ampere for $6.5 billion. "SoftBank's next frontier is Physical AI," Son said in a statement.

Read more at Reuters

Automakers to take $30B tariff hit to profits: Moody's

Tariff deals between the White House and foreign governments are trickling in, but the net effect of President Trump’s various trade wars are walloping the bottom lines of major automakers. “Global carmakers, explicitly or implicitly, indicated US tariffs will cut their [2025] operating profitability by more than $30 billion,” Moody’s Ratings said in a report. “Though the companies' disclosure parameters differed, the guidance points to a tariff impact equivalent to more than one-fifth of the operating profit the same companies generated in 2024.”

The guidance on tariff impact incorporates the framework trade agreement between the EU and US, as well as the trade agreement with Japan. While this does provide some certainty, Moody’s noted, deals between the US, Mexico, and Canada, where negotiations are stalled, are uncertain at best.

Read more at Yahoo Finance

Nearly All Automakers Report Q3 Sales Gains

Nearly every major automaker reported sales increases in the third quarter compared to the same period a year ago.  General Motors and Ford reported strong electric vehicle sales, with GM crediting a rush of buyers taking advantage of an expiring federal tax credit for EV purchases. The tax credit expired Sept. 30. Here are some highlights.

  • Audi of America sales flat in Q3 - Audi of America sold 46,758 vehicles in Q3, almost unchanged year over year.
  • BMW sales increase by more than 8% - BMW of North America sold 275,385 vehicles in Q3, an 8.5% year-over-year increase.
  • Nissan U.S. quarterly sales up more than 5% - Nissan Motor Co. reported U.S. sales of 223,377 units in Q3, up 5.3% year over year.
  • Stellantis sales up 6% - Stellantis reported U.S. sales of 324,825 units in Q3, a 6% year-over-year increase.
  • Toyota quarterly sales up nearly 16% - Toyota Motor North America sold 629,137 units in Q3, up 15.9% year over year.
  • Volkswagen of America sales fall 6% - Volkswagen of America sold 87,705 vehicles in Q3, down 6% year over year.

Read more at Ward’s Auto

Quote of the Day

“How can I go forward when I don't know which way I'm facing?”

John Lennon - British musician who was born on this day in 1940.

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