Member Briefing October 8, 2025

Posted By: Harold King Daily Briefing,

WTO Says AI-Related Buying Binge And A Spike In US Imports Spur Unexpected Rise In Goods Trade

The World Trade Organization is sharply raising its forecast for trade growth in goods this year after an unexpectedly strong first half due to rising AI-related purchases, front-loaded imports in the U.S. over tariff fears and robust developing-world trade. The Geneva-based trade body said Tuesday its economists are increasing their prediction of growth in merchandise trade to 2.4% this year, up from 0.9% as recently as August. In April, WTO experts were actually anticipating a decline of goods trade this year of 0.2%. However, they’re lowering the prediction for 2026 to 0.5%, from 1.8%.

The growth of export in services, meanwhile, is expected to come in at 4.6% in 2025 and 4.4% next year — both slower rates than the 6.8% tallied in 2024. WTO pointed to “robust trade in artificial intelligence-related goods” that are driving the increase in merchandise trade, notably semiconductors, servers and telecommunications equipment. Despite “strong headwinds,” WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said trade has shown resilience because of “importers front-loading orders to get ahead of future tariff hikes or retaliation.” U.S. inventories are at record levels by dollar value, and the value of North America’s imports surged 13.2% at an annual rate, driven by pharmaceuticals and precious metals — mostly gold.

Read more at AP

Gold Prices Top $4,000 for First Time

Gold soared to $4,000 a troy ounce for the first time, signaling an investor rush into alternative assets at a time of concern for the outlook for the U.S. economy and its place in the world. The price of the precious metal has surged this year more than it did during some of America’s biggest crises. Rising more than 50%, futures’ run-up in 2025 has outpaced rallies during the pandemic and Great Recession. Not since the inflationary shock of 1979 has gold catapulted so much higher in a year.

President Trump’s attempt to reorder global trade has buoyed prices and upended growth forecasts. The U.S. dollar by one measure had its weakest first half of the year in more than five decades. Those factors buoyed gold, perhaps the original refuge from market tumult, pushing most-actively traded futures past $3,000 a troy ounce for the first time in March. But even as trade tensions have died down and AI-crazed stock markets have resumed their record-breaking run in recent weeks, gold has notched record after record. The latest leg of the rally began in August, when Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled that the central bank was ready to begin cutting interest rates in an economy with low unemployment and above-target inflation.

Read more at the WSJ

Missing Data Leaves Economy ‘Flying Blind’

It's a ritual that economists, investors and businesses eagerly anticipate the first Friday of each month – checking to see how many people joined or left the labor market. But last Friday morning, they instead found this simple announcement on the Bureau of Labor Statistics page: “This website is currently not being updated due to the suspension of federal government services.” The data is key to whether the Federal Reserve will continue its policy of lowering interest rates, which started last month with a quarter-point cut in the central bank’s overnight lending rate. That rate is a catalyst for a broad range of interest rates that determine how much interest you pay on a car loan or a mortgage.

BLS data is also used to compile the monthly consumer price index, a key measure of inflation. The September CPI release is set for Oct. 15, but it may also be delayed if the government shutdown goes beyond this week. The Fed is facing the tricky balance of propping up the job market while avoiding any increase in inflation. It now may be tasked with deciding a next move without trusted labor or inflation data when it meets Oct. 28.

Read more at US News

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Pentagon Okays US Navy Next-Generation Fighter, Sources Say

After months of delay, the Pentagon will select as soon as this week the defense company to design and build the Navy's next stealth fighter, a U.S. official and two people familiar with the decision said, it will be a multibillion-dollar effort for a jet seen as central to U.S. efforts to counter China. Boeing Co and Northrop Grumman Corp are competing to be chosen to produce the aircraft, dubbed the F/A-XX. The new carrier-based jet will replace the Navy's F/A-18E/F Super Hornet fleet, which has been in service since the 1990s.

The U.S. Navy could announce the winner of the competition to build its fighter as soon as this week, one of the people said. But last-minute snags have delayed progress on the Navy jet in the past and could do so again, sources said. Holdups on F/A-XX highlight broader questions about the future of naval aviation and the role of aircraft carriers in confronting China. Delaying the program or starving it of funds could leave the Navy without a modern fighter capable of operating from carriers in the 2030s and beyond, potentially undermining the fleet's ability to project power. The F/A-XX is expected to feature advanced stealth capabilities, improved range and endurance, and the ability to integrate with both uncrewed combat aircraft and the Navy's carrier-based air defense systems.

Read more at Reuters

Republicans Face Pressure To Consider Democrats’ Health Care Demands As Shutdown Drags On

Sen. Susan Collins is reportedly shopping around a potential off-ramp to the government shutdown that has paralyzed Washington, but the Maine Republican is not ready to give in on the primary demand by her Democratic colleagues. Collins has been circulating a “discussion draft” of a proposal that would include GOP pledges on a deal related to enhanced Obamacare tax credits, Punchbowl News reported.

But Collins is insisting that any extension of the Affordable Care Act subsidies should be negotiated after Congress passes a funding resolution that would allow the government to reopen. Collins told reporters Monday that she has a draft of a proposal to get out of the shutdown, which she has shared “selectively.” Her draft “suggests that there be a conversation on the ACA extension ... after we reopen government,” she said, according to NOTUS.

Read more at CNBC

How Colleges Stack Up Against Trump’s Sweeping ‘Compact’ Demands

An agreement the Trump administration floated this month to nine universities asks them to conform to standards around admissions, hiring and student life in exchange for preferential access to federal funds. Some elements of the proposal, dubbed the “Compact for Academic Excellence in Higher Education,” represent things many colleges are already doing. Others would require at times substantial changes to existing policies. The nine colleges being asked to give feedback this month on the proposal are the University of Arizona, Brown University, Dartmouth College, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, the University of Pennsylvania, the University of Southern California, the University of Texas at Austin, Vanderbilt University and the University of Virginia.

  • Admissions and hiring - The compact requires schools to ban consideration of race, sex and political views—as well as “proxies” for any of those factors—in admissions decisions, except for at single-sex and religious schools.
  • International enrollment - Trump’s proposal weaves his America-first approach into college operations. Those signing the compact would agree to cap undergraduate international student enrollment at 15%, with no more than 5% from any one country.
  • Campus climate - Universities that sign on must take steps to ensure their campuses are “a vibrant marketplace of ideas where different views can be explored, debated, and challenged.”
  • Standardized testing - As part of a push to use only “objective” criteria for admissions, the compact states: “Institutions shall have all undergraduate applicants take a widely used standardized test,” such as the SAT or ACT.

Read more at the WSJ

Why Are So Many Employees Struggling To Access Mental Healthcare?

New research on insured Americans finds that those reporting mental health conditions were significantly more likely than others to struggle to get effective healthcare, a stark reminder that access to insurance doesn’t guarantee positive health outcomes. A proactive, stigma-reducing strategy, experts say, that considers mental healthcare through a prevention lens can make the difference for both workers and organizations. Conducted by the Employee Benefit Research Institute and released by the Path Forward Coalition, the survey captured the experiences of 3,100 workers with employer-based insurance.

Among the key findings, more than one in four workers (27%) reported they or someone on their health plan has a mental health condition. These individuals were more likely than those without such conditions to be younger, married with children and employed at smaller firms. Respondents reporting a mental health condition were twice as likely as those reporting no mental health condition to be unable to get medical care, tests or treatment that they or a doctor believed necessary over the past six months. About a third of those struggling to access treatment said they were seeking mental or behavioral healthcare, and another third faced obstacles getting the prescriptions they needed.

Read more at HR Executive

Upcoming Council Programs

Events

2025 Annual Luncheon - November 21, 2025 -11:00 AM Expo, 12:00 Lunch. The Grandview, Poughkeepsie.

Networks

HR Sub Council Meeting Topic TBD, 8:15 - 11:00. Selux Corporation, Highland.

Insight Exchange On Demand Webinars

Webinars and Seminars

Check back soon

Training

FILLING FAST Introduction to Lean with Simulation - This full-day Lean Foundations course, led by Vin Buonomo from RIT CQAS, is designed as a starting point for those interested in Lean certification—including Yellow Belt and Green Belt. October 28, 2025 - Location TBD.

FILLING FAST Lean Six Sigma: Yellow Belt - Yellow Belt is an approach to process improvement that merges the complementary concepts and tools from both Six Sigma and Lean approaches. 3 Full days - November 12, 13 & 14 - DCC Fishkill.

Trade Wars

 

Physics Nobel Awarded To Three Scientists For Work On Quantum Computing

The Nobel Prize in Physics has been awarded to John Clarke, Michel H. Devoret and John M. Martinis for their work on quantum mechanics that is paving the way for a new generation of very powerful computers. "There is no advanced technology used today that does not rely on quantum mechanics, including mobile phones, cameras... and fibre optic cables," said the Nobel committee. The announcement was made by the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences at a news conference in Stockholm, Sweden.

"To put it mildly, it was a surprise of my life," said Professor John Clarke, who was born in Cambridge, UK and now works at the University of California in Berkeley. Michel H. Devoret was born in Paris, France and is a professor at Yale University while John M. Martinis is a professor at University of California, Santa Barbara. The Nobel committee recognised breakthrough work performed by the three men in a series of experiments in the 1980s on electrical circuits. In the words of the committee, "the discovery of macroscopic quantum mechanical tunnelling and energy quantisation in an electric circuit". Its implications have been profound and far-reaching. The electronic devices that most of us use rely on it, and the findings are being used to build extremely powerful computers.

Read more at BBC

Tesla Offers Cheaper Versions Of 2 Electric Vehicles In Bid To Win Back Market Share In Tough Year

Tesla rolled out new, cheaper versions of two of its electric car models on Tuesday in hopes the offerings will help revive flagging sales. The new Model Y, costing just under $40,000 with a stripped-down interior, follows a slump in Tesla sales covering most of the past year due to anti-Elon Musk boycotts targeting the company. The company is also offering a cheaper version of its Model 3 for under $35,000.

The company is under intense pressure to lift sales but is facing big challenges. In addition to anti-Musk backlash, it is contending with a likely hit to demand after a federal tax credit worth as $7,500 for EV purchases expired at the end of September. Compared to previous models, the new Model Y comes with a shorter 321-mile driving range, fewer audio speakers and a fabric interior, not microsuede. The model also lacks a panoramic glass roof and a touchscreen in the second row.

Read more at Yahoo finance

Airbus A320 Flies Past Boeing 737 As Most-Delivered Jet In History

Europe's Airbus broke a major commercial barrier on Tuesday when its A320 family of planes overtook the Boeing 737 to become the most-delivered jetliner in history. Boeing's decades-old record fell with the handover of an A320neo to Saudi carrier Flynas, bringing total deliveries to 12,260 since the A320 series entered service in 1988, according to benchmark data from UK-based aviation analytics firm Cirium.

Demand for the industry's workhorse A320 and 737 jets has surged in recent years, as economic growth led by Asia brought tens of millions of new middle-class travellers into the skies. Together, Boeing and Airbus have delivered more than 25,000 of these jets, originally designed to serve major hubs but later widely adopted by low-cost carriers, which Airbus courted after Boeing cut output during a downturn in demand post-9/11. Already the world's largest planemaker by annual deliveries, Airbus now claims the top spot for cumulative narrow-body deliveries, capping a 40-year transatlantic battle for market share after early disagreements over strategy and the share of jobs among partner nations, France, Germany, Spain and Britain.

Read more at Reuters

Turkish Airlines Orders Boeing 787 Dreamliners, More 737 MAX Jets

Turkish Airlines placed a firm order for up to 75 Boeing 787 Dreamliners, the flag carrier's largest ever Boeing widebody purchase. The deal includes 35 of the 787-9 model, 15 of the larger 787-10, and options for 25 787 Dreamliners to grow and modernize the airline's fleet. The new order will support more than 123,000 jobs across the U.S. The airline also announced its intent to purchase up to 150 more 737 MAX airplanes, which will be its largest Boeing single-aisle order when finalized. The 787 and 737 MAX orders combined will double Turkish Airlines' Boeing fleet as the carrier expands its capacity and network.

Across a network that reaches the most countries of any airline in the world, Turkish Airlines operates more than 200 Boeing jets today, including the 787-9, 777, 737 MAX, Next-Generation 737, and 777 Freighter airplanes. Adding the larger 787-10 to its future fleet will enable Turkish Airlines to benefit from additional passenger and cargo capacity while improving fuel efficiency on high-demand routes between Istanbul and destinations in the U.S., Africa, Southeast Asia and the Middle East.

Read more at Aerospace Manufacturing & Design

Another Delay Seen for Boeing’s New 777X

Amid investor speculation that Boeing has started planning a new single-aisle aircraft, a separate series of reports indicates that the much-delayed twin-aisle 777X will be delayed until 2027. If so, that would be the sixth time that the new long-haul aircraft has been delayed since Boeing introduced it in 2013. The new aircraft was intended to have a commercial debut in 2020.

The is no clear explanation for the cause of any current delay in the program is unknown, but analysts speculate the expanded level of involvement by the Federal Aviation Administration has extended testing programs. There is no indication that the same issue may affect the still pending certification of Boeing’s 737 MAX-10. The 777X is a twin-engine, long-range aircraft that modernizes the current 777 to improve fuel efficiency while also incorporating the more spacious passenger cabin achieved with Boeing’s 787 Dreamliner. The 777X is also designed to match the 787’s flight systems – for flight crews’ familiarity. To ensure the new aircraft will be able to operate from existing hangars and gates, its longer wings have folding carbon-composite tips.

Read more at American Machinist

Fire At Novelis’ Plant in Oswego NY Set To Disrupt Auto Production For Months

A fire that broke out at Novelis' New York plant in Oswego will disrupt business at Ford and other automakers for months, the Wall Street Journal reported on Monday. Ford, the biggest user of the plant's aluminum, will likely flag potential implications of the setback to investors when it discloses quarterly financial results later this month, the report said, citing people familiar with the matter. Novelis, the world's largest recycler of aluminum, reported a fire incident at its Oswego plant on September 16, with no injuries.

In a statement to Reuters on Monday, Novelis — which is owned by India's Hindalco — said it anticipates operations to restart at the Oswego facility's hot mill by the first quarter of 2026. Ford, Stellantis, Toyota, Volkswagen, which depend on aluminum from Novelis, did not immediately respond to Reuters requests for comment.

Read more at Reuters

Cracked Valve Involved In US Steel Plant Explosion: Chemical Safety Board

A maintenance procedure involving a cracked valve may have led to the Aug. 11 explosion at U.S. Steel’s coke works plant in Clairton, Pennsylvania, that killed two people, according to the U.S. Chemical Safety and Hazard Investigation Board’s initial report released Sept. 29.  The Clairton facility processes raw coal into coke, which is used as a component in making steel and iron, according to the CSB press release. The facility is located about 15 miles outside of Pittsburgh and spans 392 acres, employing nearly 1,300 workers.

About a month before the explosion, U.S. Steel discovered a coke oven gas leak emanating from a valve cracked near one of its components. The cracked valve was downstream of Battery 13’s isolation valve, an 18-inch cast-iron double-disc gate valve manufactured in 1953 and refurbished in 2013. U.S. Steel temporarily repaired the cracked valve to prevent flammable coke oven gas from leaking into Battery 13 and 14’s basement. The steel manufacturer made plans to replace the damaged valve, along with at least three other valves, by isolating Battery 13 from the coke oven gas supply. On Aug. 11, the day of the explosion, the steel maker decided to exercise Battery 13’s gas isolation valve, which involves closing and reopening to help separate the downstream equipment and piping. A company supervisor called on one employee from MPW Industrial Services to provide a pump to flush the valve seat.

Read more at Manufacturing Dive

Inside Rivian’s Design Factory And The Story Behind Those Distinct Headlights

Rivian made a name for itself when it unveiled one of the first electric pickup trucks, the R1T, in 2018. It followed that up with an SUV built off the same platform, the R1S, and has since built a passionate fan base around a brand that celebrates adventure and the outdoors. Now it’s preparing for its next chapter with the R2, a smaller spin on the R1S SUV, and the R3, a rally-inspired hatchback.

The new vehicles, which were unveiled in March of last year, are part of Rivian’s strategy to reach a broader market for its electric vehicles, which currently start upwards of $70,000. The R2, which the company says will start around $45,000, is expected to go into production by the end of this year at the company’s Normal, Illinois, manufacturing facility. “While R1 was designed through addition, we had to look at R2 through subtraction,” Hammoud said. “What are the things we can remove or take away, but still keep the ethos of the product and the brand?”

Read more at CNBC

Quote of the Day

"Some boast of being friends to government; I am a friend to righteous government, to a government founded upon the principles of reason and justice; but I glory in publicly avowing my eternal enmity to tyranny". 

John Hancock - American Founding Father who died on this day in 1793.

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