Member Briefing October 7, 2025

Posted By: Harold King Daily Briefing,

Manufacturing Saw 313K Job Separations In August: BLS JOLTS Report

Manufacturing separations in August totaled 313,000, down approximately 6.3% compared to August 2024, per a BLS report released on Sept 30. While August’s separations, which include quits, layoffs and discharges, decreased year over year, it was about a 2.3% increase month over month. Job openings for August dipped about 12.4% YoY to 409,000, while hires rose barely 1% to 305,000 compared to the same period last year.

July’s adjusted numbers dropped from the initially reported 324,000 separations to 306,000. Other July revisions include job openings increasing to 438,000 and hires curbed down to 301,000. The BLS initial release reported 437,000 openings and 314,000 hires. Separate data from ADP Research, in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab, estimated the manufacturing sector lost about 2,000 jobs in September. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics was unable to release the jobs situation report last week due to the government shutdown of nonessential services that began on Oct. 1.

Read more at Manufacturing Dive

Buy Now Pay Later - Online Holiday Spending Expected to Rise 5.3% Fueled by Debt

S shoppers will spend $253.4 billion online in November and December, up 5.3% from 2024, according to Adobe Inc., with “buy now pay later” checkout options fueling growth. The forecast represents a slowdown from last year, when online spending rose 8.7%, the firm said. Shoppers plan to curb overall holiday spending due to tariff-related price increases and a weakening labor market, according to a survey released in September by PricewaterhouseCoopers.

Checkout options that let shoppers purchase items and pay for them over time will drive $20.2 billion in holiday spending, up 11% from a year earlier and more than twice the pace of overall spending growth, according to Adobe, which monitors traffic to retail websites and sales of more than 100 million products. Online retailers such as Amazon.com Inc. and Walmart Inc. offer the checkout options in partnership with financial technology firms like Affirm Holdings Inc. and Klarna Group. The financing is popular among young shoppers with low credit scores, especially when they’re encouraged to splurge on discounted merchandise during Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales.

Read more at Yahoo Finance

Tariff Revenue has Increased - Here is a Country‑Specific View

U.S. trade policy remains in flux. Nevertheless, important elements of the new policy regime are apparent in data through July. What stands out are the large differences in realized tariff rates by trading partner, ranging from less than 5 percent for Canada and Mexico to 15 percent for Japan and to 40 percent for China. This post shows that the bulk of cross-country differences in tariff rates is explained by two factors: the U.S.-Canada-Mexico free trade agreement and differing sales shares in tariff-exempt categories. 

The aggregate realized tariff rate—revenues as a percentage of import values — reached roughly 10 percent in June and July and climbed to just under 11½ percent in August. Based on daily Treasury revenue reports, the rate in September is likely to come in close to the August figure. For comparison, the average tariff rate was 2.4 percent in 2024.

Read more at the NY Fed

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US Supreme Court Opens New Term, With Major Trump Cases In Store

The U.S. Supreme Court kicks off its new nine-month term on Monday with major cases in store concerning presidential powers as Donald Trump probes the limits of his authority under the U.S. Constitution and federal law. The major theme of the term promises to be the authority of the president in cases involving Trump, who returned to office in January. The court, whose 6-3 conservative majority, has backed the Republican president in a series of cases decided on an emergency basis this year.

In the one case this year involving Trump in which the justices heard arguments, the conservative majority handed him a major victory that buttressed presidential powers. In that case, which arose from a dispute over Trump's efforts to limit birthright citizenship, the court in June restricted the ability of judges to impede his policies nationwide. The court has arguments coming in November, December and January in three big cases involving Trump over the legality of his sweeping tariffs and his moves to fire officials from agencies set up by Congress with certain job protections meant to insulate them from presidential interference.

Read more at Reuters

Government Shutdown Drags On With Little Pressure to Break Impasse

The federal government shutdown is dragging toward its second week in a partisan staring contest, lacking for now the political or practical consequences that would create enough pressure to break the impasse. All signs point to another week of posturing and repeat Senate votes that fail to get the 60 votes needed to reopen the government. Congressional leaders in both parties insist that they have the upper hand and that the other side bears the blame for the shutdown. The shutdown will likely cause pain, but the early days don’t bring enough acute anguish to make anyone budge.

The White House has already paused funding for transportation and energy projects in Democratic-majority states, and Trump holds at least one potential escalation in reserve—firing federal workers. If the president determines negotiations are going nowhere, he will begin layoffs, White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett said on CNN’s “State of the Union” on Sunday.

Read more at The WSJ

Why Unpaid Air Traffic Controllers Could Be Key In Ending Shutdown

Air traffic controllers are scheduled to receive a partial paycheck on Oct. 14 and a zero paycheck on Oct. 28, Nick Daniels, president of the 19,000-member National Air Traffic Controllers Association, told Forbes. Due to the ongoing air traffic controller (ATC) shortage, where the workforce is operating at 26% below full staffing, the average controller works six 10-hour days a week with just four days off every month, according to Daniels.

In the last government shutdown in 2018-2019, an increase in absenteeism by air traffic controllers was a key factor in President Donald Trump’s decision to end the shutdown, it was widely reported at the time. “In a job that's already stressful, this shutdown has put way more stress on our controllers,” Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy told reporters at Newark airport Monday, while blaming Democrats for the shutdown.

Read more at Forbes

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Measles-Free Status In Jeopardy In The Americas As Outbreaks Continue

The Americas region is at risk of losing its measles-free status as the highly infectious disease continues to spread in Canada, Mexico and the United States, the head of the Pan American Health Organization told Reuters in an interview. To be considered measles-free, a country where an outbreak takes place must get back to zero cases within 12 months. That deadline expires at the end of this month for Canada, while the United States has until January and Mexico until February.

PAHO head Dr Jarbas Barbosa said all three countries were at risk of missing the deadlines, which would deprive the Americas of its measles-free status and set back the wider goal of a measles-free world by 2030. Falling vaccination rates were to blame for the spread of the disease, he said. PAHO, the Americas arm of the World Health Organization, says 95% of a population needs to be vaccinated to prevent the spread of measles. According to WHO data, 92% of the population in Canada has had the first dose of vaccine, and only 79% the second dose, which is needed for full protection. There have been more than 5,000 measles cases in Canada this year and two deaths, most recently that of a newborn baby in Alberta announced last week. While cases are declining, Canada has just weeks to show that transmission has stopped completely.

Read more at Reuters

Upcoming Council Programs

Events

2025 Annual Luncheon - November 21, 2025 -11:00 AM Expo, 12:00 Lunch. The Grandview, Poughkeepsie.

Networks

HR Sub Council Meeting Topic TBD, 8:15 - 11:00. Selux Corporation, Highland.

Insight Exchange On Demand Webinars

See previous episodes here!

Webinars and Seminars

TODAY! Workshop - Identifying and Assessing Gaps in Envir. Health and Safety

In this interactive session attendees will learn how to identify compliance blind spots, drive cultural EHS growth, and make safety a core value in their facility. $45 per person. Presented by Walden Engineering. October 7, 8:30 - 11:30. iPark Fishkill.

Training

FILLING FAST Introduction to Lean with Simulation - This full-day Lean Foundations course, led by Vin Buonomo from RIT CQAS, is designed as a starting point for those interested in Lean certification—including Yellow Belt and Green Belt. October 28, 2025 - Location TBD.

FILLING FAST Lean Six Sigma: Yellow Belt - Yellow Belt is an approach to process improvement that merges the complementary concepts and tools from both Six Sigma and Lean approaches. 3 Full days - November 12, 13 & 14 - DCC Fishkill.

Trade Wars

 

Nobel Medicine Prize Goes To Researchers Into Immune System Precision

American scientists Mary Brunkow and Fred Ramsdell and Shimon Sakaguchi from Japan won the 2025 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine on Monday for work shedding light on how the immune system spares healthy cells, creating openings for possible new autoimmune disease and cancer treatments. This year’s prize relates to peripheral immune tolerance, or “how we keep our immune system under control so we can fight all imaginable microbes and still avoid autoimmune disease”, said Marie Wahren-Herlenius, a rheumatology professor at the Karolinska Institute.

Brunkow is senior programme manager at the Institute for Systems Biology in Seattle, while Ramsdell is scientific adviser at Sonoma Biotherapeutics in San Francisco. Sakaguchi is a professor at Osaka University in Japan. “Their discoveries have laid the foundation for a new field of research and spurred the development of new treatments, for example for cancer and autoimmune diseases,” the prize-awarding body said in a statement. The laureates identified so-called regulatory T cells, which act as the immune system’s security guards that keep immune cells from attacking our own body, it added.

Read more at CNBC

OpenAI, AMD Announce Massive Computing Deal, In Challenge Nvidia’s Market Dominance

OpenAI and chip-designer Advanced Micro Devices AMD -2.98%decrease; red down pointing triangle announced a multibillion-dollar partnership to collaborate on AI data centers that will run on AMD processors, one of the most direct challenges yet to industry leader Nvidia NVDA -0.67%decrease; red down pointing triangle. Under the terms of the deal, OpenAI committed to purchasing 6 gigawatts worth of AMD’s chips, starting with the MI450 chip next year. The ChatGPT maker will buy the chips either directly or through its cloud computing partners.

The two companies didn’t disclose the plan’s expected overall cost, but AMD said it costs tens of billions of dollars per gigawatt of computing capacity. OpenAI will receive warrants for up to 160 million AMD shares, roughly 10% of the chip company, at 1 cent per share, awarded in phases, if OpenAI hits certain milestones for deployment. AMD’s stock price also has to increase for the warrants to be exercised. The deal is AMD’s biggest win in its quest to disrupt Nvidia’s dominance among AI semiconductor companies. AMD’s processors are widely used for gaming, in personal computers and traditional data center servers, but it hasn’t made as much of a dent in the fast-growing market for the pricier supercomputing chips needed by advanced AI systems.

Read more at Yahoo finance

Musk Gambles Billions in Memphis to Catch Up on AI

For Elon Musk, ground zero of the artificial intelligence arms race is a 114-acre tract of grass and swamp on the state line of Tennessee and Mississippi. Labor crews hired by Musk’s xAI were excavating power equipment on the site—a defunct energy plant just over the state line in Mississippi—and preparing to build a new plant capable of generating over a gigawatt of electricity, enough to power around 800,000 homes. Engineering permits show that Musk plans to route transmission lines that will connect the new power plant to a million-square-foot data center that is also under development just north of the border, in Tennessee.

Memphis is the front line of Musk’s costly foray into the AI wars. His artificial intelligence company, xAI, has already built one massive data center here in the Bluff City that it calls the world’s largest supercomputer. That facility, called “Colossus,” houses over 200,000 Nvidia chips and powers the technology behind the AI chatbot Grok. Now, Musk is close to finishing the second facility, which will be even bigger. He calls it Colossus 2. The AI arms race is shaping up as the most expensive corporate battle of the 21st century, with the belief that the first to the finish line will dominate the market, making speed crucial. Money also makes the difference: The more cutting-edge chips companies have, the smarter their models are. But at this stage it’s unclear if or when the enormous investments will pay off.

Read more at The WSJ

AstraZeneca Signs Up To $555 Million Deal With US-Based Algen To Develop Gene Therapies

lgen Biotechnologies said on Monday it has agreed to grant AstraZeneca (AZN) a license to develop gene therapies the U.S.-based biotech discovers using its artificial intelligence-driven platform, in a deal worth up to $555 million. Under the deal, AstraZeneca will get exclusive rights to develop therapies that target immune system-related disorders. The Anglo-Swedish pharmaceutical major will also get the right to sell the treatments, if they get approved, while Algen will get upfront and milestone payments.

AstraZeneca has been advancing its cell and gene therapy capabilities through acquisitions and partnerships as it works towards its target of $80 billion in sales by 2030. Globally too, drugmakers are increasingly turning to AI for drug development. Algen was spun out from the lab at UC Berkeley, where biochemist Jennifer Doudna pioneered the CRISPR technology that won her the Nobel Prize. The biotech firm's AI platform, AlgenBrain, can map genes to disease outcomes, helping the companies decide their development focus for therapies.

Read more at Yahoo Finance

Boeing Defense Aims to Hire More Replacements

Boeing Defense will expand its effort to replace striking workers at three St. Louis area plants, according to a memo by a top executive of the fighter aircraft and missile manufacturer. About 3,200 members of the International Assn. of Machinist and Aerospace Workers have been on strike since August 4, and have formally rejected two contract offers by Boeing. The two sides are now engaged in mediation. Boeing’s initial four-year offer included a 20% wage increase, a $5,000 ratification bonus, more vacation time and sick leave, and “a path to higher wages.” The second offer covered five years, with a 24% raise and $4,000 signing bonuses.

The IAM – the same union that conducted a nearly two-month strike against Boeing Commercial Airplanes in 2024 – presented its own five-year contract proposal in late September, which included increased 401k contributions, raises to bring union members’ compensation in line with other Boeing employees, and a ratification bonus. That proposal was rejected by Boeing. On September 30, the company announced: “The union continues to set false expectations with its members. We’ve made it clear we’re ready and willing to discuss proposals within the parameters of our market-leading offer that union leadership has twice endorsed, not modifications to their self-drafted proposal. We'll stay focused on executing our contingency plan, hiring permanent replacements and supporting our customers.”

Read more at American Machinist

General Motors Delays Second Shift At Kansas Assembly Plant, Lays Off 900

General Motors Co. will indefinitely lay off 900 people as it backs off plans to establish a second shift at its Fairfax Assembly plant near Kansas City, Kansas, according to the Detroit Free Press. The layoff comes as the company edges back from electric vehicles. Kevin Kelly, a GM spokesperson, told the Free Press GM plans to add gas-powered Chevrolet Equinox production to the plant in 2027.

Reportedly, more senior workers among those laid off will receive priority to be re-hired then, but GM did not offer a timeline or estimate for how many would be brought back. The news came out the same day General Motors announced its third-quarter sales were up 8% year-over-year, led by the looming expiration of a federal tax credit for certain electric vehicles and strong sales for the Chevy Equinox EV.

Read more at Plant Services

Nike’s Turnaround Will ‘Take A While’ CEO Elliott Hill Says

Nike’s turnaround plan is showing early signs of progress, but it will “take a while” for the company to return to profitable growth, CEO Elliott Hill said in an interview with CNBC’s Sara Eisen aired Monday. “When we come to work we think about three brands, and then multiple sports under each brand and then 190 countries that roll up to our four geographies,” Hill said in a sit-down interview from the company’s headquarters in Beaverton, Oregon. “Each brand times sport, and each [geography] times country, they’re at different stages of the evolution.”

The comments come nearly a year into Hill’s tenure as CEO. Investors are looking for more clarity into how well his strategy to turn around the company is working as quarterly sales and profits have declined for much of the last year. Since Hill took over last October, he’s worked to reverse many of the strategies implemented by his predecessor, former eBay CEO John Donahoe, who tried to sell more shoes and apparel directly to shoppers. Instead of focusing on sales only through Nike’s website and stores, Hill is moving back to wholesalers and working to win back shelf space that competitors have taken over.

Read more at CNBC

Joby, Archer Showcase Air Taxis At California Airshow

On a clear Saturday afternoon, Joby Aviation and Archer Aviation, two California-based companies focused on making electric vertical take-off and landing vehicles, or eVTOLs — pronounced ee-vee-tols — demonstrated their aircraft in front of a public crowd for the first time at the California International Airshow in Monterey County. The 10-minute demos came and went with nothing more than a pither. Only the sound of a slight hum and the crowd chatter could be heard during both flights.

The companies are envisioning a ride-share-like service in dense urban regions — except they're relying on a zero-emissions, all-electric aircraft to transport passengers. Enter the flying taxis. To achieve public acceptance of a fleet of small aircraft constantly hovering over people's heads, noise — along with safety — is among the top priorities. Public opinion is only part of the hurdle. EVTOLs are a capital-intensive and highly regulated space. Companies undergo numerous tests and, in the US, must obtain several certifications to demonstrate airworthiness to the Federal Aviation Administration.

Read more at Business Insider

Quote of the Day

“Years of love have been forgot, In the hatred of a minute.”

Edgar Allan Poe - american Poet from 'The Complete Stories and Poems.' He died on ths day in 1849, aged 40.

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