Member Briefing September 24, 2025

Posted By: Harold King Daily Briefing,

Manufacturing CEO Confidence Sinks Amid Continued Volatility 

According to Chief Executive’s latest CEO Confidence Index survey, conducted September 9 and 10, manufacturing CEOs downgrade their forecast for future business conditions and their rating of current conditions for the second month in a row in September. Tariffs and trade policy are the most frequently cited topics to explain manufacturing CEOs’ forecasts with many explicitly mentioning that tariffs are a large source of uncertainty. Weak demand, rising costs and global instability are also to blame for the low ratings this month, according to manufacturing CEOs.

  • U.S. manufacturing CEOs now forecast business conditions 12 months down the line at 5.2/10, on a scale where 1 is Poor and 10 is Excellent. That’s down another 7 percent since last month, after an 11 percent decrease in August. Now for a third consecutive month, this score is well below that reported by non-manufacturing CEOs (5.7/10).
  • When it comes to their rating of the present business environment, the consensus is grim. U.S. manufacturing CEOs rate current business conditions at 4.5/10—their lowest rating of current conditions since the pandemic. Their rating also signals a growing gap between the reality of business for U.S. manufacturing CEOs versus those in other industries, who rate current conditions a relatively sunny 5.6/10.
  • Recession forecasts remain unchanged, with a steady 30 percent of manufacturing CEOs forecasting a mild or severe recession over the next 6 months compared to 31 percent of non-manufacturing CEOs who project the same. 
  • Over one-third of manufacturing CEOs (35 percent) expect no growth from the U.S. economy over the next 6 months, compared to only 28 percent of non-manufacturing CEOs. On the bright side, an equal proportion of manufacturing CEOs is also forecasting mild growth.
  • Projections for revenues and profit are down for manufacturing CEOs in September, for the third consecutive month. Now, only a very slight majority project increasing profits over the coming year, at 51 percent, down 7 percent from the month prior—compared to 55 percent of non-manufacturing CEOs who project the same. 

Read more at Chief Executive

Fed’s Powell Cites Weakening Job Market For Interest Rate Cut

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday said a weakening labor market in the U.S. has outweighed concerns about growing inflation, prompting the central bank to lower interest rates last week for the first time in months amid pressure from President Donald Trump. Powell, during an address Tuesday in Providence, Rhode Island, said “near-term risks” to inflation are “tilted to the upside,” while employment risks are increasing and have shifted the Federal Reserve’s approach to monetary policy, despite presenting a “challenging situation.” The Fed’s policymaking panel voted 11-1 last week to lower interest rates, which were held between 4.25% and 4.5% since December, by a quarter-point to a new range between 4% and 4.25%.

The U.S. labor market is experiencing a “marked slowdown” in supply and demand, Powell said, though he noted “uncertainty around the path of inflation remains high.” Powell also noted he believed the latest interest rate easement leaves the U.S. “well-positioned” to respond to economic developments. Powell’s comments precede personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index data, the Fed’s preferred inflation measurement, from the Bureau of Economic Analysis on Friday.

Read more at Forbes

When 400,000 Manufacturing Jobs Go Unfilled, It’s Time To Rethink The Blueprint

American factories can’t fill 400,000 open jobs. By now we have all heard the full of stats, quotes, and know the usual suspects: baby boomer retirements, immigration crackdowns, the college-or-bust myth, underfunded training programs. All true, all predictable, and all missing the point. It’s not as simple as, “we need more workers in manufacturing.” Actually, we need to unlock more of the potential in the ones we already have. The people running our factories aren’t just operators; they’re engineers, systems thinkers, and problem-solvers. But for too long, we’ve given them siloed, rigid, one-size-fits-all manufacturing execution systems (MES) that create technical barriers that don’t need to exist.

Currently, there are two camps: one warns that agentic AI-powered humanoid robots are going to replace factory workers, and the other argues manufacturing companies simply can’t hire fast enough. But the facts don’t fully support either position. The truth is that Automation, robotics, and AI aren’t coming in to change everything overnight. Our industry pretends to move fast, but in reality it moves pretty slow. And, with the high stakes of production line disruption, we need humans-in-the-loop (HITL), not lights-out factories. And mModern manufacturers don’t necessarily need more “blue-collar” workers; they need a new architecture and a new tech stack.

Read more at Forbes

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In General Assembly Address Trump Blasts The UN For Not ‘Living Up’ To Its Potential

President Donald Trump blasted the United Nations in his speech to the General Assembly on Tuesday, suggesting that the organization was either ignoring or exacerbating problems around the world that were being left to him to fix. “What is the purpose of the United Nations?” Trump asked. “It’s not even coming close to living up to [its] potential.” Complaining about a busted teleprompter as he began his remarks and a broken escalator he had to ride upon entering the building moments earlier, Trump said the organization has “tremendous potential” but was failing to live up to it.

In a stemwinder of a speech that lasted nearly an hour and seemed aimed as much at a domestic political audience as the world leaders in the room, Trump ripped U.N. efforts on climate change, urging other countries to purchase energy from the U.S. while vowing that America would no longer sacrifice in order to shift the world away from carbon-based energy. “The entire globalist concept of asking successful industrialized nations to inflict pain on themselves and radically disrupt their entire societies must be rejected completely and totally, and it must be immediate,” Trump said.

Read more at Politico

Amazon Sues To Block New York State Labor Law

Amazon.com sued the New York State Public Employment Relations Board on Monday to block it from enforcing a new law that the online retailer considers an attempt to illegally regulate private sector labor relations. In a complaint filed in Brooklyn federal court, Amazon accused New York of engineering an "unconstitutional power grab" by letting the regulator known as PERB usurp the National Labor Relations Board's primary authority to address union organizing, collective bargaining and workplace disputes.

The New York law known as Senate Bill 8034A was signed, opens new tab on September 5 by Governor Kathy Hochul. She said it was needed to protect workers because of the lack of a quorum at the NLRB, where hundreds of cases have backed up since Republican President Donald Trump fired Democratic member Gwynne Wilcox in January. The state law "flips U.S. labor law on its head: it presumes PERB jurisdiction over every private-sector employer until the NLRB gets a court to hold otherwise," Amazon said. "New York has created the collision of state and federal authority Congress sought to avoid." On September 12, the NLRB sued New York in the Albany federal court to block enforcement of the state law.

Read more at Reuters

Trump’s Schumer Feud Increases Odds Of Shutdown

Finding a deal this week to avoid a government shutdown will come down to a negotiation between President Trump and Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer (N.Y.), whose relationship is so bitter that lawmakers in both parties see little chance of an agreement. Trump is scheduled to meet with Schumer and House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries (N.Y.) this week on how to avoid the looming shutdown, a White House official told The Hill on Monday.

The last time Trump and Schumer tried to negotiate something was at the start of August, when Republicans were trying to get more than 140 of Trump’s stalled executive branch nominees past a Democratic blockade in the Senate. It didn’t end well. Trump scuttled the negotiations by delivering a blunt directive to Schumer on social media: “Go to hell.” Schumer rips Trump on a near-daily basis on the Senate floor, accusing the president of being a wannabe dictator and serial liar who puts his own interests and even Russian President Vladimir Putin’s interests ahead of what’s best for the United States.

Read more at The Hill

EU, WHO Counter Trump’s Warnings On Autism And Pregnancy

European Union and British health agencies confirmed the safety of paracetamol during pregnancy, disputing a warning from U.S. President Donald Trump linking the popular pain medication to autism. The World Health Organization said on Tuesday that evidence of a link remained inconsistent and urged caution in drawing conclusions. The European Medicines Agency said on Tuesday that there was no new evidence that would require changes to the region’s current recommendations for the use of paracetamol, known as Tylenol in the United States, during pregnancy.

“Available evidence has found no link between the use of paracetamol during pregnancy and autism,” the EMA said in a statement, adding paracetamol could be used during pregnancy when needed, though at the lowest effective dose and frequency. On Monday, Britain’s health regulator said that it was safe to use.

Read more at CNBC

Upcoming Council Programs

Events

2025 Annual Luncheon - November 21, 2025 -11:00 AM Expo, 12:00 Lunch. The Grandview, Poughkeepsie.

Mfg. Day 2025 - Manufacturing Day will be taking place on Friday, October 3rd. Check out the Mfg Day website to learn more!

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Webinars and Seminars

Workshop - Identifying and Assessing Gaps in Envir. Health and Safety

In this interactive session attendees will learn how to identify compliance blind spots, drive cultural EHS growth, and make safety a core value in their facility. $45 per person. Presented by Walden Engineering. October 7, 8:30 - 11:30. iPark Fishkill.

Training

Introduction to Lean with Simulation - This full-day Lean Foundations course, led by Vin Buonomo from RIT CQAS, is designed as a starting point for those interested in Lean certification—including Yellow Belt and Green Belt. October 28, 2025 - Location TBD.

Lean Six Sigma: Yellow Belt - Yellow Belt is an approach to process improvement that merges the complementary concepts and tools from both Six Sigma and Lean approaches. 3 Full days - November 12, 13 & 14 - DCC Fishkill.

Trade Wars

 

The $100k Fee On H-1B Visas Help Will Likely Help U.S. Workers In The Short Term But Over Time, The U.S. Economy Could Suffer

A $100,000 fee is, by all accounts, going to discourage a lot of companies from hiring foreign workers through the H-1B program. What happens next is debatable.“It might improve the job prospects of certain types of U.S. workers,” said Gaurav Khanna, an associate professor of economics at University of California, San Diego. He’s thinking of computer scientists, for example. “In the short run, IT (information technology) firms might try to hire a few U.S. born computer scientists,” Khanna said.

Longer term? “It stops the IT firm from growing. And as a result, it doesn’t hire other workers,” he said. Historically, top science and engineering talent from around the world are drawn to work in the U.S. There may be a trade-off. Research by Patrick Turner, an economist at Notre Dame, suggests H-1B immigration in the ‘90s and 2000s may have limited how much more STEM workers are paid over non-STEM workers. But, the innovations created by these workers have benefitted the whole workforce, Turner said. “Not having those workers in this country means that we miss out on kind of the technological advantages that those workers bring,” he said.

Read more at Marketplace

Volvo Says It Will Add Hybrid Model To Factory In South Carolina

Volvo Cars said Tuesday it add a “next-generation hybrid model” to its Ridgeville plant outside Charleston, South Carolina. The $1.3 billion plant has a production capacity of 150,000 vehicles a year. It currently makes the electric Volvo EX90 SUV and Polestar 3 in South Carolina. Volvo Cars said in July it would start building the XC60 mid-size SUV at the South Carolina factory beginning in late 2026.

The new hybrid model will be constructed at the factory by 2030, Volvo Cars said in a statement. The hybrid model “is designed to meet the specific demands” of the U.S. market, the company said. Volvo Cars broke ground on the South Carolina plant in September 2015. Production at the complex began in 2018.

Read more at Forbes

Mortgage Rates Are Finally Dipping, But A Shortage Of Available Houses Remains A Problem

Even with mortgage rates coming down, creating a flurry of refinancing activity, home sellers are pulling back. August saw a 1.4% drop in active listings — while new listings dropped 1.1%, according to new data from Redfin. So, what’s behind some of these seller jitters? Earlier this year, home buyers in many parts of the country were finally starting to feel the market tip in their favor. “I think that that was around the time when sellers realized, ‘Hey, you know, we're turning from a seller's market to a buyer's market right now,’” said Chen Zhao with Redfin. Sellers who no longer had the upper hand in price negotiations got wise.

Sellers may be pulling back, but buyers aren’t. So, supply is starting to dwindle. Some sellers may have paid off a house, so they aren’t worried about it sitting on the market for a while if they can’t get full price.   “And so, they're really hanging on to ‘this is what I think my house is worth. And I'll sell it if someone wants to pay for it, and if they don't, then it's really no loss to us’,” real estate agent Amanda Snitker in Denver said. Others may have bought their homes more recently, when interest rates were lower, and want to get the most bang out of that buck in order to buy their next house. 

Read more at Marketplace

Desktop Metal Hopes to Step Away from the Chaos

Rapid upheaval in the additive manufacturing world in recent years dropped Desktop Metal at Bryan Wisk’s feet last week. His strategy for success going forward is to keep that chaos at bay. Wisk is CEO of Arc Public Benefit Corp., a New York investor that last week bought Desktop Metal out of bankruptcy. It was an opportunity born from turmoil. The company that pioneered several metal additive manufacturing applications went public in 2021 through a special-purpose acquisition corporation (the same sorts of deals that funded dozens of now-defunct electric vehicle companies around the same time).

Wisk says he sees a realistic path to profitability for Desktop Metal in focusing on collaboration with customers as a way of feeding its research and development efforts. “We’re knuckling down and just looking forward to what we think is a pretty solid opportunity to get the company to [earnings before income tax, depreciation and amortization] EBITDA positive in the near term. How long is that going to take? Unclear. But I think the core business… there’s a healthy base of recurring revenue,” Wisk says.

Read more at IndustryWeek

Milan Fashion Week 2025 Honours Armani And Debuts New Designers

Milan Fashion Week opens with a celebration of Italian style that will honour the late Giorgio Armani while introducing new creative talents at major fashion houses. The Spring/Summer 2026 women’s collections will feature presentations from Prada, Dolce & Gabbana, Max Mara, Fendi, Roberto Cavalli, Ferragamo and Bottega Veneta throughout the week. The event carries a sombre tone following the recent passing of Giorgio Armani, the legendary 91-year-old designer who built a multi-billion euro empire and established Milan as a global fashion capital.

Amid the mourning, the week will feature several highly anticipated debuts including Georgian designer Demna’s first presentation for Gucci after moving from Balenciaga.Demna faces the challenging task of reversing sales declines at the Italian brand owned by French luxury group Kering, with a private event scheduled for Tuesday evening rather than a traditional catwalk show.

Read more at The Sun

Wabtec And Kazakhstan Reach $4.2 Billion Locomotive Deal

Pittsburgh based Locomotive parts maker Wabtec has reached a $4.2 billion agreement with Kazakhstan under which the Pennsylvania-headquartered company will provide the central Asian country with 300 locomotives, the U.S. Department of Commerce said on Monday. The deal will give Kazakhstan's national railway company Kazakhstan Temir Zholy (KTZ) 300 "evolution Series ES44Aci heavy-haul locomotive kits over the next decade," the department said in a statement.

It is expected to support 11,000 U.S. jobs, it said. The agreement was made after a call between President Donald Trump and Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said in a post on X. "This landmark deal advances U.S. manufacturing jobs and accelerates growth, opportunity, and connectivity in America and Central Asia," Lutnick said.

Read more at Reuters

Stellantis Launches Practical Tests With IBIS Prototype Vehicle

Stellantis, with Saft and other partners, is testing an electric-vehicle battery design that could eliminate the need for separate charger and inverter hardware. The Intelligent Battery Integrated System, tested in a Peugeot e-3008, uses software to control each battery module individually, achieving a 10% reduction in energy consumption, 15% improvement in power and an 88-pound (40 kilograms) reduction in weight, plus faster charging time. The design could reach production before 2030.

What makes the system special is that the inverter and charging functions are directly integrated into the battery. The architecture supports both alternating current (AC) and direct current (DC) and supplies electrical energy directly to the motor or the vehicle’s electrical system, while simultaneously powering the 12-volt system and auxiliary units. Stellantis cites the following advantages of the system.

Read more at Electrive

First F-47 Sixth-Gen Fighter Already Being Built, Expected to Fly in 2028

The first F-47 Next-Generation Air Dominance fighter will be ready to fly by 2028 and the first airframe is already being built, Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. David W. Allvin announced during a keynote address Sept. 22 at AFA’s Air, Space & Cyber Conference. “It’s the platform that, along with all of the rest of the systems, is going to ensure dominance into the future. We’ve got to go fast,” Allvin said. “I’ve got to tell you, team, it’s almost 2026. The team is committed to getting the first one flying in 2028.”

Allvin touted the F-47’s progress as he stressed the need for the Air Force to move even faster to modernize, including building semi-autonomous collaborative combat aircraft to work with the F-47 and the Air Force’s other combat jets, and continue work on the B-21 Raider stealth bomber, the second prototype of which was just recently rolled out, to be prepared for any potential conflict.

Read more at Air & Space Forces

Quote of the Day

“You have brains in your head. You have feet in your shoes. You can steer yourself any direction you choose. You're on your own. And you know what you know. And YOU are the one who'll decide where to go...”

Dr. Seuss (Theodore Seuss Geisel) - American Childrens Author from his book "Oh, the Places You’ll Go!" He died on this day in 1991.

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