Member Briefing September 29, 2025

Posted By: Harold King Daily Briefing,

Inflation: PCE = 2.7%. Core Holds Steady at 2.9%

Core inflation was little changed in August, according to the Federal Reserve’s primary forecasting tool, likely keeping the central bank on pace for interest rate reductions ahead. The personal consumption expenditures price index posted a 0.3% gain for the month, putting the annual headline inflation rate at 2.7%, the Commerce Department reported Friday. Excluding food and energy, the more closely followed core PCE price level was 2.9% on an annual basis after rising 0.2% for the month. The headline annual inflation rate was a slight increase from the 2.6% in July while the core rate was the same.

The report further indicates that President Donald Trump’s tariffs have had only a limited pass-through effect on consumer prices. Though many economists expected Trump’s expansive levies to juice prices, companies have relied on a mixture of pre-tariff inventory accumulations and cost-absorbing measures to limit the impact. Goods prices increased 0.1% while services rose 0.3%. Food showed a gain of 0.5% while energy goods and services jumped 0.8%. Housing costs posted a 0.4% rise. Moreover, the data showed that consumers have been resilient despite the round of tariffs, continuing to spend strongly as incomes have held up. The personal saving rate also increased on the month, rising to 4.6%, up 0.2 percentage point.

Read more at CNBC

US Second-Quarter GDP Growth Rate Revised Up To 3.8%

The U.S. economy grew faster than previously estimated in the second quarter amid strong consumer spending and business investment. The quickest growth pace in nearly two years reported by the Commerce Department on Thursday also reflected a sharp contraction in the trade deficit as the flood of imports slowed. Gross domestic product increased at an upwardly revised 3.8% annualized rate last quarter, the fastest pace since the third quarter of 2023, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis said in its third GDP estimate.

The economy's resilience was underscored by other data showing strong demand by business for equipment in August, driven by an artificial intelligence (AI) spending boom, and a drop in first-time applications for state unemployment benefits last week as companies hoard workers. The upgrade to second-quarter GDP mostly reflected an upward revision to consumer spending, which is now estimated to have increased at a 2.5% pace, instead of the previously reported 1.6% rate. There was increased spending on services like transportation as well as finance and insurance.

Read more at Wells Fargo

Existing Home Sales Stall In August Amid Higher Mortgage Rates

Sales of previously owned homes were essentially flat in August, coming in 4 million units on a seasonally adjusted, annualized basis, according to the National Association of Realtors. That is a 0.2% drop from July and an increase of 1.8% from August of last year. Sales were strongest in the Midwest and weakest in the Northeast. This count is based on closings, so people signing their deals in June and July, when mortgage rates were about 50 basis points higher than they are today. Rates began dropping sharply at the start of September, which would not figure into these numbers. The upper end of the market is moving better than the lower end. Sales of homes priced above $1 million gained 8% year over year, the top performer. Sales of homes priced below $100,000, however, dropped more than 10% from a year ago.

Supply is what seems to be changing most in the housing market right now. After a pretty big run-up earlier this year, supply fell 1.3% last month from July although it is still up 11.7% year over year. That was the first monthly drop since the start of this year. Sellers, seeing weaker prices and higher mortgage rates, are coming off the market or deciding to wait a while longer before listing in the first place. There was a 4.6-month supply of homes for sale in August, which is considered lean.

Read more at CNBC

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Trump To Meet With Top Congressional Leaders Today On Shutdown

The top congressional leaders of both parties will meet Monday afternoon with President Donald Trump — less than 48 hours before a possible government shutdown — according to three people granted anonymity to discuss the plans ahead of a public announcement. The meeting with Speaker Mike Johnson , Senate Majority Leader John Thune, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries is set to take place less than a week after Trump abruptly canceled a previously scheduled meeting with Schumer and Jeffries. The new sit down was set after Thune and Schumer spoke for the first time in weeks about the spending standoff.

Democrats are pressing for an extension of health insurance subsidies that are set to expire at the end of the year, among other concessions. Trump and Republicans will press Senate Democrats to allow a House-approved seven-week stopgap pass and punt any larger negotiation for later. All Democratic senators except Pennsylvania’s John Fetterman voted to block the continuing resolution earlier this month. The meeting, which was first reported by Punchbowl News, is currently slated for 2 p.m. Monday. Senate Republicans are expected to put the House-passed measure up for a second vote Tuesday just hours before the midnight shutdown deadline.

Read more at Politico

Trump Signs Order Saying TikTok Sale Meets US Requirements

US President Donald Trump on Thursday declared that a deal for TikTok satisfied the requirements of the US’ sale-or-ban law for the Chinese-owned short-video app, punctuating months of deliberations and years of angst in Washington over the app’s security implications. “I have determined that the proposed divestiture would allow the millions of Americans who enjoy TikTok every day to continue using it while also protecting national security,” Trump wrote in an executive order issued on Thursday.

Last year, then-US President Joe Biden signed into law a bill requiring TikTok to be sold or banned if a “foreign adversary” retained control – defined as a stake of 20 per cent or more. The law set a January deadline and allowed for a one-time extension if “significant” progress towards a sale was evident, but Trump has repeatedly delayed its enforcement. Thursday’s executive order did not specify a timeline for the deal with Beijing, but it delayed enforcement of the TikTok law by 120 days from the day of the order.

Read more at SCMP

White House to Pursue Mass Firings if Government Shuts Down

The White House’s budget office directed federal agencies to draw up plans to permanently reduce their workforces if there is a government shutdown next week, raising the specter of mass firings on top of the customary furloughs during a lapse in funding. The new memo sent by Office of Management and Budget Director Russ Vought sharply raises the stakes for funding talks and increases the pressure on Senate Democrats, who are demanding that Republicans restore hundreds of billions of dollars in healthcare spending as a condition of their support for keeping the government funded.

If no bipartisan agreement is reached, the government would shut down at 12:01 a.m. on Wednesday, Oct. 1. Republicans are insisting that their seven-week stopgap spending plan funding the government through late November is the only one on the table, and there are no meetings planned between President Trump and Democrats before the month’s end.The OMB memo instructs agencies to design reduction-in-force plans for employees who work for programs that have no current funding and have no outside funding source, and that are “not consistent with the President’s priorities.” This would be in addition to any temporary furloughs that happen during a government shutdown.  The memo from Vought says that any cuts made after the funding deadline would be permanent.

Read more at the WSJ

Which Sugar Substitute Is Best For You? Here’s How They Compare

With ordinary sugar, enzymes in the small intestine split it into glucose and fructose, and the glucose rapidly enters the bloodstream. “Glucose is the brain’s preferred fuel source,” says Marion Nestle, a professor of nutrition at New York University. “It’s only excess sugar intake that causes problems,” because the hormones that maintain glucose levels can’t handle large amounts without being secreted excessively, which disrupts metabolism. Too much sugar can raise disease risk through weight gain, inflammation, and insulin resistance. That’s why health experts often encourage cutting back—and why so many people turn to substitutes. But researchers are learning that these substitutes are “not inert,” says Susie Swithers, a professor of behavioral neuroscience at Purdue University. “They don’t just wash through us.”

Sweeteners can change more than taste. Evidence suggests they can affect weight, gut microbiome, and metabolism. The catch: it’s hard to pin down which sweetener does what. Many studies group them together or mix healthy people and those with chronic conditions, as well as longtime sweetener users with those who’ve barely had any, says Yanina Pepino, a nutrition professor at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign. So, we broke them apart. Here’s how four of the most common sugar substitutes move through the body—and what that could mean for your health.

Read more at Nat Geo

Upcoming Council Programs

Events

2025 Annual Luncheon - November 21, 2025 -11:00 AM Expo, 12:00 Lunch. The Grandview, Poughkeepsie.

Mfg. Day 2025 - Manufacturing Day will be taking place on Friday, October 3rd. Check out the Mfg Day website to learn more!

Networks

Check Back Soon.

Insight Exchange On Demand Webinars

See previous episodes here!

Webinars and Seminars

Workshop - Identifying and Assessing Gaps in Envir. Health and Safety

In this interactive session attendees will learn how to identify compliance blind spots, drive cultural EHS growth, and make safety a core value in their facility. $45 per person. Presented by Walden Engineering. October 7, 8:30 - 11:30. iPark Fishkill.

Training

Introduction to Lean with Simulation - This full-day Lean Foundations course, led by Vin Buonomo from RIT CQAS, is designed as a starting point for those interested in Lean certification—including Yellow Belt and Green Belt. October 28, 2025 - Location TBD.

Lean Six Sigma: Yellow Belt - Yellow Belt is an approach to process improvement that merges the complementary concepts and tools from both Six Sigma and Lean approaches. 3 Full days - November 12, 13 & 14 - DCC Fishkill.

Trade Wars

 

Siemens And Machine Tool Companies Agree To Share Data For AI Development

Siemens AG and several machine tool manufacturers announced September 23 they would form a “data alliance,” an agreement to share engineering data with each other for the interest of future developments in applications for generative software for industrial use. The collaboration between Siemens and Grob, Trumpf, Chiron, Renishaw, Heller, the Voith Group and the German university RWTH Aachen’s Machine Tool Laboratory aims at the creation of a generative AI program for manufacturers, the Siemens Industrial Foundation Model.

According to Siemens, the AI, once developed, could be used to automatically create parts for machine tools while reducing error rates in code creation: Siemens noted that the AI could also be used to generate NC programs, or work instructions for special manufacturing machines; precisely predict preventative maintenance for individual machines; adapting manufacturing processes to real-time changing conditions and optimizing energy use. In its statement, Siemens noted the exchanged machine data shared would be anonymized “in strict compliance with data protection and security standards.”

Read more at Plant Services

HSBC & IBM Demo Quantum Algorithmic Trading

A team at HSBC bank, working with researchers at IBM, was able to successfully solve real-world bond trading problems using quantum computers.  Today, institutions around the world use algorithms to make trades, which are pre-programmed to account for variables like price and volume to best meet customer orders. Data scientists are constantly working to tweak and improve these algorithms to optimize trading strategies for their clients. A crucial aspect of that is predicting future prices in order to maximize profitability.

The team at HSBC wanted to know if quantum computers–which are ideal for optimization problems–could help. Working with IBM, the researchers developed a hybrid approach that combined conventional and quantum algorithms, the latter of which were run on IBM’s quantum computers. The result was a 34% improvement in prediction accuracy compared to purely classical computing approaches. Although more work needs to be done to refine the approach and utilize it in a generalizable way, this represents a “tangible example of how today’s quantum computers could solve a real-world business problem at scale and offer a competitive edge,” Phillip Intallura, HSBC’s head of quantum technologies, said in a statement.

Read more at HSBC

FAA to Let Boeing Sign Off On 737 Maxes, 787s After Years Of Restrictions

Boeing can sign off on some of its 737 Max and 787 Dreamliner planes before they’re handed over to customers, the Federal Aviation Administration said Friday, the latest sign the manufacturer is regaining confidence from its regulator after years of safety crises. The FAA stopped allowing Boeing to issue its own airworthiness certificates for 737 Max airplanes in 2019 after two fatal crashes. It made a similar decision for Boeing 787s in 2022 because of production defects.

The company has been working for years to move past a series of safety and manufacturing issues. A midair blowout of a door panel from one of its new 737 Max 9s in January 2024 set those plans back further, with the FAA capping production of the Maxes and increasing scrutiny of Boeing, a top U.S. exporter. Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg, who took the helm just over a year ago, has said the company is focused on stabilizing its production rate of its Maxes at 38 month, and he has expressed optimism about evaluating an increase beyond that with the FAA.

Read more at CNBC

US Consumer Sentiment Falls to Four-Month Low on Income Worries

US consumer sentiment fell in September to a four-month low on growing concerns about the impact of high prices on personal finances. The final September sentiment index dropped to 55.1 from 58.2 a month earlier, according to the University of Michigan. That compared with a preliminary reading of 55.4. Consumers expect prices to rise at an annual rate of 4.7% over the next year, data released Friday showed. That was down slightly from both the preliminary September reading and the prior month. They saw costs rising at an annual rate of 3.7% over the next five to 10 years, up from August.

“Interviews this month highlight the fact that consumers feel pressure both from the prospect of higher inflation as well as the risk of weaker labor markets,” Joanne Hsu, director of the survey, said in a statement. While sentiment declined among most income groups, it held steady for those with larger holdings of stocks. Equity prices remain close to record highs.

Read more at Bloomberg

GE Aerospace Flies Hypersonic Engine With No Moving Parts

Hypersonic missiles capable of flying well in excess of five times the speed of sound promise to revolutionize warfare and aviation in general in a manner not seen since the sound barrier was broken in 1947. Not only could it turn flights from London to Sydney into an afternoon jaunt instead of a 22-plus-hour ordeal, it could also make current air defenses obsolete as vehicles blast by before defenders would even detect them. The tricky bit is how to get the vehicle into the hypersonic range where it can cruise under its own power or fly as a Mach 5+ glider.

For the ATLAS program, GE Aerospace has come up with the latest in Solid-Fuel Ramjet (SFRJ) technology that seems to operate almost by magic. Funded by the US Department of War, GE Aerospace's ATLAS program takes simplicity to the next level by eliminating the liquid fuel by lining the interior of the engine with a solid hydrocarbon fuel that looks a bit like rubber. This isn't like a solid rocket fuel that carries its own oxygen along in the form of a powdered oxidizer mixed in with the fuel. It's just the fuel, with the air coming in providing the oxygen for combustion. As the fuel burns, it ablates, leaving a fresh layer of fuel to feed the flight. By not carrying oxygen, the engine is not only lighter, but it's more efficient. Where a solid fuel rocket has a specific impulse – a measure of rocket efficiency – of about 240 seconds, the SFJR can manage 1,000 seconds. In addition, replacing all those mechanical parts makes the engine cheaper – an important point with what is essentially a disposable power plant.

Read more at New Atlas

Embraer Lands $2B Regional Jet Order

Latin America’s largest commercial airline group placed a new order with Embraer worth at least $2.1 billion, with deliveries starting in the second half of 2026. LATAM Airlines’ contract involves 24 Embraer E195-E2 regional aircraft, plus options for up to 50 more of those jets. The new aircraft will be in service for LATAM’s Brazilian subsidiary, though later deliveries may involve the group’s other subsidiaries. Currently the group has a fleet of 362 aircraft, mostly Airbus and Boeing narrow-body jets, plus some larger wide-body aircraft and cargo jets.

The E195-E2 is the largest aircraft built by the Brazilian manufacturer. It’s a twin-engine, narrow-body jet designed for high-density routes, with capacity for up to 146 passengers. It has a range of 2,600 nautical miles (2,992 miles / 4,815 km.) Embraer president and CEO Arjaan Meijer recently described the aircraft as “a game‑changer for airlines that want to grow profitably while elevating the guest experience.”

Read more at American Machinist

Stellantis Cancels Electric Ram Pickup Amid Slowing EV Demand

Stellantis has canceled its fully-electric Ram pickup, which was originally slated to debut this year in North America, the automaker announced in a Sept. 12 press release. The decision to axe the battery-powered Ram was partially due to slowing demand for electric trucks in North America, the automaker said in a statement. Stellantis will instead launch a range-extended, hybrid version of the pickup, renamed the “Ram 1500 REV.” It uses a six-cylinder gas engine paired with a generator to send electricity to dual-electric motors that drive the front and rear wheels.

The Ram 1500 REV features a 92-kilowatt-hour battery pack and 130-kilowatt generator similar to other EVs and hybrids. But the truck is equipped with a 3.6 liter Pentastar V6 engine that’s not directly connected to the wheels. Instead, the engine sends mechanical power to a generator which produces electricity for propulsion and to charge the battery. Although the 1500 REV is not a zero emissions vehicle, the hybrid design significantly improves driving range compared to an EV using battery power alone.

Read more at Automotive Dive

Micron (MU) Delivers Earnings Beat and Strong Forecast, Stock Outlook Brightens

Micron reported better-than-expected earnings and revenue on last week as well as a robust forecast for the current quarter. Earnings per share were $3.03 adjusted vs. $2.86 expected and revenue was $11.32 billion vs. $11.22 billion expected. Micron said revenue in the current period, its fiscal first quarter, will be about $12.5 billion, versus the $11.94 billion average analyst estimate per LSEG. The company said it had $3.2 billion, or $2.83 per share in net income, versus $887 million, or 79 cents per share, in the year-ago period.

Micron shares have nearly doubled so far in 2025. The company makes memory and storage, which are important components for computers. Micron has been one of the winners of the artificial intelligence boom. That’s because high-end AI chips such as those made by Nvidia require increasing amounts of high-tech memory called high-bandwidth memory, which Micron makes. “As the only U.S.-based memory manufacturer, Micron is uniquely positioned to capitalize on the AI opportunity ahead,” Micron CEO Sanjay Mehrotra said in a statement.

Read more at CNBC

Quote of the Day

"All blame is a waste of time. No matter how much fault you find with another, and regardless of how much you blame him, it will not change you. The only thing blame does is to keep the focus off you when you are looking for... reasons to explain your unhappiness or frustration."

Casey Stengel - American Baseball Player and Manger who died on this day in 1975.

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