Member Briefing September 30, 2025

Posted By: Harold King Daily Briefing,

S&P Global US Flash PMI®: Factory Conditions Improve Slightly in September

The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI fell from 53.0 in August to September 52.0, according to the flash reading, signaling an improvement of factory business conditions for the eighth time in the past nine months, albeit with the rate of improvement slowing from August’s 39-month high. The average manufacturing PMI reading for the third quarter was slightly below that of the second quarter. Production rose for a fourth consecutive month, though to a lesser degree. While new orders rose for a ninth straight month, the increase was only marginal. Factory employment growth also edged lower, with a weaker gain in input inventories likewise weighing on the headline PMI.

The suppliers’ delivery times index was consequently the only component to push the PMI higher as lead times lengthened to the greatest degree in four months. Looking ahead, companies’ expectations about output in the year ahead improved to a four-month high in September yet remained below the survey’s long-run averages in both manufacturing and services. Outlook concerns continued to center on government policies, notably tariffs, and broader political uncertainty, though in manufacturing tariffs were again often cited as hopefully providing a stimulus to domestic production in the coming year.

Read more at S&P Global

Global Steel Output Drops for Third Straight Month

Global steel production fell by 4.8 million metric tons from July to August, down -3.3%, according to the monthly data issued by the World Steel Assn. It was the third consecutive monthly decline in output for steelmakers, continuing to indicate adjustments by major exporter nations since the implementation of U.S. tariffs in April. It is important to note that August is typically a low-output month for raw steel, and the latest tonnage total is 0.3% higher than the August 2024 output. The 2025 year-to-date total of 1.23 billion metric tons of raw steel is just -1.7% less than the January-August 2024 result.

The drop in output is most evident in China, the world's largest steelmaking nation and a major exporter of semi-finished steel. In August, Chinese steelmakers produced 77.4 million metric tons, -3.0% from their July total and but down just -0.7% from August 2024. Indian steel production has expanded consistently over the past three years. In August, Indian steelmakers produced 14.1 million metric tons, up 0.7% from July and up 13.2% from August 2024. The third-largest steelmaking nation is Japan, where August production rose 4.2% from July to 7.2 million metric tons. That represents a 3.2% rise from August 2024. U.S. steelmakers produced 6.6 million metric tons - 7.3 million short tons - during August, down 7.6% from July and down -3.4% from August 2024.

Read more at American Machinist

Dollar Retreats, Consolidates Earlier Gains, Amid US Govt Shutdown Risk

The dollar eased against major currencies such as the euro and yen on Monday following a rally last week in the wake of a slew of stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data and ahead of a key nonfarm payrolls report that could offer further clues on the Federal Reserve's policy path. Data on housing, durable goods, and revisions to the second quarter gross domestic product, meanwhile, came out higher than forecast. In addition, U.S. jobless claims fell sharply. The economic reports prompted a pullback in expectations for Fed interest rate cuts.

The dollar index - a measure of its value relative to a basket of foreign currencies - was down 0.2% on Monday to 97.90, having risen 0.5% last week. The euro, the largest component in the dollar index, rose 0.3% versus the U.S. unit to $1.1734 . In other currency pairs, the dollar slipped 0.1% to 0.7976 franc while sterling gained 0.2% to $1.3424. Top of investors' minds was a looming U.S. government shutdown should Congress fail to pass a funding bill before the fiscal year ends on Tuesday. Without passage of funding legislation, parts of the government would close on Wednesday, the first day of its 2026 fiscal year.

Read more at Reuters

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Congressional Leaders Leave White House Meeting Without Deal To Avoid Government Shutdown

A government shutdown fast approaching, Democratic and Republican congressional leaders left a White House meeting with President Donald Trump Monday afternoon showing no sign of compromising from their entrenched positions in order to avoid a lapse in funding. If government funding legislation isn’t passed by Congress and signed by Trump tonight, many government offices across the nation will be temporarily shuttered and nonexempt federal employees will be furloughed, adding to the strain on workers and the nation’s economy.

Democrats are pushing for an extension to Affordable Care Act tax credits that have subsidized health insurance for millions of people since the COVID-19 pandemic. The credits, which are designed to expand coverage for low- and middle-income people, are set to expire at the end of the year. Trump has shown little interest in entertaining Democrats’ demands on health care, even as he agreed to hold a sit-down meeting Monday with Schumer, along with Senate Majority Leader John Thune, House Speaker Mike Johnson and House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries.

Read more at the AP

Labor Department Won’t Release Friday’s Key Jobs Report, Other Data, In Case Of A Shutdown

The Labor Department is preparing for what would amount to a news and data blackout should the U.S. government suspend operations. In a contingency plan released Friday, the department said it was looking “to ensure that DOL agencies can perform an orderly suspension of programs and operations should a lapse occur, while continuing those limited activities authorized to continue during a lapse…. BLS will suspend all operations,” the 73-page plan stated.” Economic data that are scheduled to be released during the lapse will not be released.”

The DOL, in conjunction with the Bureau of Labor Statistics, has several key reports upcoming that will provide important clues about the direction of the economy and inform Federal Reserve policymakers ahead of their next meeting in October. Among the important upcoming reports that could be impacted: On Friday, the BLS will release the monthly nonfarm payrolls report at a time when job growth has been weakening substantially. The department also releases the initial jobless claims report each Thursday. Then, on Oct. 15, it is scheduled to release the consumer price index, a key inflation indicator and in fact the last such reading the Fed will get before it convenes Oct. 28-29.

Read more at CNBC

Pentagon Pushes to Double Missile Production for Potential China Conflict

The Pentagon, alarmed at the low weapons stockpiles the U.S. would have on hand for a potential future conflict with China, is urging its missile suppliers to double or even quadruple production rates on a breakneck schedule. The push to speed production of the critical weapons in the highest demand has played out through a series of high-level meetings between Pentagon leaders and senior representatives from several U.S. missile makers, according to people familiar with the matter. Deputy Defense Secretary Steve Feinberg is taking an unusually hands-on role in the effort, called the Munitions Acceleration Council, and calls some company executives weekly to discuss it, some of the people said.

Defense contractors like Lockheed Martin and Raytheon say they have responded by adding workers, widening factory floors and growing spare-parts inventories to prepare for a potential demand surge. But some suppliers have struggled to hit the new targets and are wary of splurging on orders that the government has yet to fund. Christopher Calio, the chairman and chief executive officer of Raytheon parent RTX said in a July 3 letter to the Pentagon that it was ready to work with the Defense Department to increase production, but cautioned that the company would need additional money and commitments from the Pentagon to buy more munitions. “Signaling the demand strength of these critical munitions to the supply base with Program of Record extensions…and funding to support is required,” he wrote in the letter, which was reviewed by The Wall Street Journal.

Read more at the WSJ

What To Know About Leucovorin, The Drug The Trump Administration Says Can Treat Autism

The US government has announced controversial guidance on the prevention and treatment of autism in children. The recommendations include using the drug leucovorin to treat speech-related difficulties that children with autism sometimes experience. So what is leucovorin and what does the science say about its ability to treat autism? Leucovorin is a form of folic acid, a B vitamin our bodies usually get from foods such as legumes, citrus fruits, and fortified grains. Leucovorin is also used to reduce the toxic side effects of methotrexate, another chemotherapy drug.

Methotrexate works by blocking the body’s use of folate, which healthy cells need to make DNA. Leucovorin provides an active form of folate that healthy cells can use to make DNA, thereby “rescuing” them while methotrexate continues to target cancer cells. Because methotrexate is also used to treat the skin condition psoriasis, leucovorin can also be used as a rescue agent during treatment for this autoimmune condition. The recommendation to use leucovorin to treat autism seems to stem from a theory that low levels of folate in the brain can lead to a condition called cerebral folate deficiency. Children with cerebral folate deficiency don’t usually display symptoms for the first two years. Then they show signs of speech difficulties, seizures, and intellectual disability. As the signs of autism are similar and it usually presents at around the same age, some people have proposed a link between cerebral folate deficiency and autism.

Read more at Fast Company

Upcoming Council Programs

Events

2025 Annual Luncheon - November 21, 2025 -11:00 AM Expo, 12:00 Lunch. The Grandview, Poughkeepsie.

Mfg. Day 2025 - Manufacturing Day will be taking place on Friday, October 3rd. Check out the Mfg Day website to learn more!

Networks

HR Sub Council Meeting Topic TBD, 8:15 - 11:00. Selux Corporation, Highland.

Insight Exchange On Demand Webinars

See previous episodes here!

Webinars and Seminars

Workshop - Identifying and Assessing Gaps in Envir. Health and Safety

In this interactive session attendees will learn how to identify compliance blind spots, drive cultural EHS growth, and make safety a core value in their facility. $45 per person. Presented by Walden Engineering. October 7, 8:30 - 11:30. iPark Fishkill.

Training

Introduction to Lean with Simulation - This full-day Lean Foundations course, led by Vin Buonomo from RIT CQAS, is designed as a starting point for those interested in Lean certification—including Yellow Belt and Green Belt. October 28, 2025 - Location TBD.

Lean Six Sigma: Yellow Belt - Yellow Belt is an approach to process improvement that merges the complementary concepts and tools from both Six Sigma and Lean approaches. 3 Full days - November 12, 13 & 14 - DCC Fishkill.

Trade Wars

 

Small Businesses are Rethinking Supplier Sourcing Strategies

A recent survey, Scaling Small: Inside the Enterprise Push to Source Smarter and Stay Competitive, found that 91% of executives say they have adjusted their sourcing strategies or plan to do so in the next six months. One tactic is to increase sourcing from U.S.-based small suppliers, which 71% of the respondents plan to do. Furthermore, 17% have reshored or are in the process of reshoring production to unlock new small local business opportunities in the future. Additionally, 26% report increasing sourcing from non-US small businesses.

Almost every leader (96%) said they would source more from small suppliers if finding, vetting, and onboarding were easier. Yet, regardless of revenue, according to Supplier.io platform data, companies only allocate an average of 7% of their organization’s spend towards small suppliers. The issue isn’t a lack of interest; it’s a lack of infrastructure.

Read more at Material Handling & Logistics

Toyota Global Sales Climb In August, Powered By US Growth Despite Trump's Tariffs

Toyota (TM) reported another bump-up in global sales for August, with the US consumer powering the gains. The world’s largest automaker by volume said global sales rose 2.2% in August year over year to nearly 845,000 units sold, with the company marking its eighth straight month of sales gains. Toyota’s year-to-date sales through August hit 6.9 million units, up 5% compared to last year. The US, the largest market for the Japanese automaker, marked the biggest gains for Toyota.

Sales in August hit 225,367 units sold in the US, a 13.6% jump compared to a year ago. Year-to-date sales were up 7.2%, just above 1.68 million units sold. In China, Toyota’s other major market, sales were essentially flat. The company cited an “ongoing severe market environment, including a shift to new energy vehicles and intensifying price competition,” as reasons for minimal growth. Toyota did say the company’s promotions tied to Chinese subsidies, as well as strong sales of Toyota’s bZ3X electric vehicle, helped its performance.

Read more at Yahoo Finance

GSK’s Walmsley to step down early as insider Luke Miels named next CEO

GSK’s CEO Emma Walmsley will step down in December and be replaced by insider Luke Miels, the British drugmaker said on Monday, tasking the new leader to deliver shareholder value and prepare for the next wave of R&D. Since taking over in 2017, she has overseen the separation of consumer healthcare group Haleon and turned GSK’s focus to cancer and infectious diseases as she drove efforts to counter a combination of patent expiries and declining revenue from its best-selling medicines by 2030. However, she has struggled to win over investors due to concerns about GSK’s drug pipeline.

“2026 is a pivotal year for GSK to define its path for the decade ahead, and I believe the right moment for new leadership,” said Walmsley, 56. Miels will be tasked with leading the company into this new phase and delivering GSK’s annual sales target of more than 40 billion pounds ($53.76 billion) by 2031, despite a challenging economic and geopolitical backdrop that includes potential U.S. tariffs on the sector. Miels, 50, joined GSK in 2017 and is currently the drugmaker’s chief commercial officer, overseeing the company’s global medicines and vaccines portfolio.

Read more at CNBC

Auto Parts Maker First Brands Files For Bankruptcy, Revealing Billions Of Dollars In Liabilities

U.S. auto parts maker First Brands filed for bankruptcy protection on Monday after disclosing liabilities exceeding $10 billion, marking the collapse of a company who’s rapidly deteriorating finances have shocked debt investors in recent weeks. First Brands is expected to soon disclose an issue with its factoring arrangements amounting to nearly $2 billion, according to people familiar with the matter. The company's board and creditors are investigating the issue, one of these people said, confirming an earlier report in the Wall Street Journal. Factoring is a financing method that is tied to the future revenue of a company.

Privately held First Brands, which makes replacement components including filters, brakes and lighting systems for the automotive aftermarket, emerged as a significant player in the industry through debt-financed acquisitions of rival auto parts makers. The high-profile collapse of First Brands has raised questions among investors about potential ripple effects across the automotive parts industry, although experts said automaker supply chains are not likely to be affected broadly.

Read more at Reuters

Trump Is Wielding The Power Of The State To Back Critical Mineral Companies

The Trump administration needs to strike multiple deals with U.S. miners to secure the nation’s supply chain against China, said Mark Chalmers, CEO of Energy Fuels, a miner focused on uranium and rare earth minerals. The Pentagon decision to take an equity stake in MP Materials, the largest U.S. rare earth miner, in July and support the company with a price floor surprised many in the industry, Chalmers told CNBC. The White House is “not ruling out other deals with equity stakes or price floors as we did with MP Materials, but that doesn’t mean every initiative we take would be in the shape of the MP deal,” a Trump administration official told CNBC.

Rare earths are key inputs in weapons platforms such as the F-35 warplane as well as consumer products like electric vehicles and smartphones. The U.S. is almost entirely dependent on China, which supplied 70% of rare earth imports in 2023, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. China has manipulated the market by suppressing prices to drive Western competition from the market, said Ryan Castilloux, founder of Adamas Intelligence, a critical mineral market research firm. The MP deal demonstrated that the U.S. is willing to break with free market ideals and push back against China by mimicking its model of strategic capitalism when necessary, Castilloux said.

Read more at CNBC

Modine Manufacturing To Expand To New Plant, Hire 300 Workers

Modine Manufacturing, a maker of thermal management systems used in the booming data center industry, is expanding to a new, 153,000-square-foot location in Franklin, Wisconsin. While plans for the new plant have been known since the city announced it in January, a more recent statement from the company adds new details, including an estimated total headcount of 300 employees by March 2026. According to that statement, Modine has immediate openings for 55 hires for entry level assemblers, welders, production leaders, engineers, and other positions.

In July, Modine announced it would spend a total of $100 million to expand its capacity for data center thermal control products to keep up with increasing demand. Data centers, including those used to train and operate “AI” software, generate heat and need to be cooled: Those cooling systems can demand enough water and electricity to seriously tax local infrastructure. According to Urban Milwaukee, the new Franklin plant will build huge coolers that weigh as much as 33,000 pounds.

Read more at Plant Services

Volvo’s Most Popular Vehicle in America Will Soon Be Made Here, Too

Volvo Car’s only U.S. factory was supposed to bring 4,000 jobs to this area 30 miles northwest of Charleston. Today half that number run a single daily shift building expensive electric vehicles. That is about to change thanks, in part, to the Trump administration’s tariffs. Starting next year the Swedish automaker will crank up production of its most popular SUV in America—the XC60—at this $1.3 billion plant set among the swamps and evergreen trees of the South Carolina low country. For years that model has been shipped to the U.S. from Sweden, but the new 15% levy on foreign imports makes it worthwhile to move its manufacturing to the U.S., Chief Executive Håkan Samuelsson said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal.

Volvo’s XC60 SUV comes in two versions, a standard gasoline-electric hybrid and a more expensive plug-in hybrid. Combined, the two have notched more than 27,000 sales in the U.S. so far this year, a nearly 20% increase over 2024. The company is adding more hybrid models to the Ridgeville factory because American car buyers proved slow to give up their gas-powered vehicles.

Read more at the WSJ

EY: Regulatory Uncertainty Slowing US Electric Vehicle Adoption

Elimination of buyer incentives combined with regulatory uncertainty is expected to slow domestic electric vehicle adoption as the technology advances in other global markets, a forecasting model has found. This is according to consulting firm EY’s September 2025 “EY Mobility Lens Forecaster,” an AI-powered modeling tool developed to predict electric vehicle adoption timelines in the key U.S., China and EU markets through 2050. For the U.S. market, EY’s forecaster projects EV adoption will begin to slow with the elimination of the federal EV tax credit on Sept. 30, as well as from tariffs and other legislative uncertainty surrounding the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” which was approved by Congress in July.

In addition, factors such as escalating trade tensions, rare earth shortages are expected to further slow EV adoption in the U.S. to a more moderate pace year over year, from 7.3% in 2024, to under 2% annually each year through 2030. EVs are projected to account for only 11% of all U.S. light vehicle sales by 2029 as a result of “policy roadblocks,” according to EY’s data. Still, EVs are on track to reach 32% of U.S. light vehicle sales by 2035.

Read more at Automotive Dive

Quote of the Day

“A conversation is a dialogue, not a monologue. That's why there are so few good conversations: due to scarcity, two intelligent talkers seldom meet.”

Truman Capote - American Author who was born on this day in 1924.

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