Member Briefing September 3, 2025

Posted By: Harold King Daily Briefing,

ISM: August Marks Sixth Month of Contraction for Manufacturing

The ISM manufacturing index rose to 48.7 in August, but remained consistent with contraction in the sector for the sixth-straight month (chart). In one line — manufacturers continue to struggle in the face of uncertainty around tariff impacts. There was a level of pessimism across nearly all of the select industry comments, with respondents mentioning tariffs, including uncertainty around costs and sourcing concerns which are limiting new equipment spending.

Most of the ISM components rose during the month. Of the five components that feed into the headline composite the measure of current production was the only to decline, and it did so by a sizable amount dropping 3.6 points, or the most of any component, to 47.8. Combined with longer delivery times and higher inventories, that suggests underlying activity remains muted amid potential supply pressure. But new orders popped to 51.4 in August, the highest reading since the start of the year with eight industries reporting growth. Another positive development can be found in the drop in prices paid for the second month. Yet at 63.7, the index reading is still consistent with a broad expansion in input prices with 15 industries reporting increased prices for raw materials last month.

Read more at Wells Fargo

U.S. Construction Spending Falls 2.2% Through July, Led By 4.0% Drop In Residential Sector

Construction spending in the United States reached $1,232.7 billion during the first seven months of 2025, a 2.2% decrease from $1,259.9 billion in the same period of 2024. Residential construction accounted for $524.7 billion, down 4.0%, while nonresidential construction declined 0.8% to $707.9 billion, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. For the month of July 2025, construction spending was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,139.1 billion, down 0.1% from June and 2.8% below July 2024. Private sector construction decreased 0.2% from the previous month, while public construction rose 0.3%.

Private construction dropped 3.8% year-to-date to $946.5 billion. Within that, private residential construction fell 4.1% to $517.9 billion. New multifamily housing saw the sharpest drop, down 12.5% to $66.6 billion, while new single-family construction declined 2.4% to $243.0 billion. Private nonresidential construction totaled $428.6 billion, down 3.5%, with commercial building down 13.7% and educational construction down 6.3%. Public construction increased 3.8% to $286.2 billion over the same period. Public residential construction rose 6.3% to $6.8 billion, while nonresidential public spending also grew 3.8% to $279.4 billion. Public commercial construction jumped 37.9%, health care rose 14.0%, and amusement and recreation increased 11.0%.

Read more at Lesprom

WSJ-NORC Poll: Americans Lose Faith That Hard Work Leads to Economic Gains

A new Wall Street Journal-NORC poll finds that the share of people who say they have a good chance of improving their standard of living fell to 25%, a record low in surveys dating to 1987. More than three-quarters said they lack confidence that life for the next generation will be better than their own, the poll found. Nearly 70% of people said they believe the American dream—that if you work hard, you will get ahead—no longer holds true or never did, the highest level in nearly 15 years of surveys.

The discontent reaches across demographic lines. By large majorities, both women and men held a pessimistic view in the combined questions. So did both younger and older adults, those with and without a college degree and respondents with more than $100,000 in household income, as well as those with less. The poll found a somewhat brightening view of the current economy. Some 44% rated the economy as excellent or good, up from 38% a year ago, though still a smaller share than the 56% who now view the economy as not good or poor.

Read more at The WSJ

Middle East

Ukraine

Other Headlines

Advertisement

Your ad here! Contact Harold King to learn more

Congress Returns To September Government Funding Crunch

Lawmakers are back in Washington after their month-long recess and face a mountain of legislative work as GOP powerbrokers contend with a litany of thorny political fights. At the top of Congress’ to-do list: reaching an agreement to fund the government beyond the current Sept. 30 deadline. While funding is set to expire in exactly one month, the House and Senate have just 14 legislative days to reach an agreement on a stopgap bill to avert a shutdown.

The worst-case scenario is growing more likely after President Trump last week signaled his plans to unilaterally claw back nearly $5 billion in foreign aid funds without Congressional approval, a move Democrats have lambasted. Office of Management and Budget Director Russell Vought aims to move forward with a “pocket rescission” that would bypass congressional spending authority altogether, with neither chamber expected to act on the proposal before federal funding lapses.

Read more at The WSJ

GOP Leaders Face Rocky September With Even Slimmer House Majority

House GOP leaders are staring down a politically fraught and legislatively jam-packed September as lawmakers return to Washington — all while their tiny majority is set to get even slimmer. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) must contend with a Sept. 30 government funding deadline amid disputes among Republicans on the structure and length of a stopgap and as Democrats have the power to force a shutdown. Calls for more disclosures about convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, which thwarted leadership’s plans ahead of the August recess, are set to come back to the forefront. And GOP lawmakers are planning to press their leaders on hot-button issues like stock trading, while contending with demands from President Trump on crime and beyond.

Adding to the pressure are two special elections in September that almost certainly will add two Democrats to the chamber in seats open due to the deaths of Reps. Gerry Connolly (D-Va.) and Raúl Grijalva (D-Ariz.). Virginia’s special election is Sept. 9, and Arizona’s is Sept. 23. That will give Republicans less breathing room on party-line votes, being able to afford just two GOP defections rather than three, assuming all members are present and voting.

Read more at The Hill

Treasury Yields Jump On Prospect Of U.S. Having To Refund Tariff Money; 30-Year Yield Tops 4.97%

Treasury yields jumped on Tuesday to begin September trading as a court decision knocking down most of the Trump administration’s tariffs raised the prospect of the government having to repay the money already brought in, stretching an already-stressed U.S. fiscal situation. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose 5 basis points to 4.275%. The 30-year bond yield climbed over 4 basis points to 4.961%. The 2-year Treasury yield moved 3 basis points higher to 3.656%. One basis point is equal to 0.01%, and yields and prices move in opposite directions.

While Trump’s tariffs had initially raised worries about inflation, driving yields higher, the market view changed over the summer with bond investors heartened by the revenue raised from the duties. Tariffs are set to bring in $172.1 billion in 2025, according to the Tax Foundation, which would be a nice financial boost to a country with a ballooning budget deficit. “If this ruling is upheld, refunds of existing tariffs are on the table which could cause a surge in Treasury issuance and yields,” wrote Ed Mills of Raymond James in a note.

Read more at CNBC

More Fentanyl Showing Up in Random Workplace Tests

More Americans are testing positive for fentanyl use in randomized workplace drug tests, highlighting a persistent challenge for employers. The positive rate for urine tests indicating the presence of the synthetic opioid fentanyl was 1.13% in 2024. That is up from 0.91% in 2023 and double the rate in 2020, according to a recent analysis of more than eight million drug tests by Quest Diagnostics DGX -0.01%decrease; red down pointing triangle, one of the U.S.’s largest drug-testing labs. Overall, the positive rate for the various substances Quest Diagnostics tested for declined last year, to 4.4% from 4.6% in 2023, after three years of rising.

“We’re seeing trends that are outside of the norm that we see for other drugs historically,” said Suhash Harwani, senior director of science for workforce-health solutions at Quest Diagnostics. Surprise random tests are a clearer indication of opioid use among workers than pre-employment screening, which subjects can prepare for ahead of time and even game to achieve negative results. Fentanyl-positive results were more than seven times higher in random tests for the general U.S. workforce than in drug screening taking place during the hiring process, the analysis showed.

Read more at The WSJ

Upcoming Council Programs

Events

2025 Annual Luncheon - November 21, 2025 -11:00 AM Expo, 12:00 Lunch. The Grandview, Poughkeepsie.

Mfg. Day 2025 - Manufacturing Day will be taking place on Friday, October 3rd. Check out the Mfg Day website to learn more!

Networks

HR Sub-Council - Connect with HR colleagues, discuss concerns and explore best practices. September 16, 8:30 - 11:00 AM. RBT CPAs 11 Racquet Rd, Newburgh, NY 12550Manufacutirng members only please.

Insight Exchange On Demand Webinars

See previous episodes here!

Webinars and Seminars

Apprentice Office Hours - Drop in and chat with Council of Industry staff on Thursday, September 9th at 4:00 p.m., to get quick answers to your apprenticeship questions—whether it’s related instruction options, bluebooks, incentives, or how to start a program! Great for employers, apprentices, and managers who prefer live Q&A over formal presentations.

Click here for the full Apprenticeship Webinar schedule!

Workshop - Identifying and Assessing Gaps in Envir. Health and Safety

In this interactive session attendees will learn how to identify compliance blind spots, drive cultural EHS growth, and make safety a core value in their facility. $45 per person. Presented by Walden Engineering. October 7, 8:30 - 11:30. iPark Fishkill.

Training

Making a Profit in Manufacturing, - A Certificate In Manufacturing Leadership Course. This course led by Valeria Giordano and Chris Seger of RBT CPA's, taking place on 8/27, is designed to provide supervisors and team leaders with the financial acumen essential for maximizing profitability and reducing operational risks.

Introduction to Lean with Simulation - This full-day Lean Foundations course, led by Vin Buonomo from RIT CQAS, provides a comprehensive introduction to Lean principles, tools, and methodologies. Designed as a starting point for those interested in Lean certification—including Yellow Belt and Green Belt—this program offers participants a hands-on learning experience to understand the impact of Lean concepts on their operations. October 28, 2025 - Location TBD.

Lean Six Sigma: Yellow Belt - Yellow Belt is an approach to process improvement that merges the complementary concepts and tools from both Six Sigma and Lean approaches. The resulting approach will have a greater impact than one that centers on only Six Sigma or Lean. Participants will learn a short history of each approach and how they can complement each other. 3 Full days - November 12, 13 & 14 - DCC Fishkill.

Trade Wars

Global Supply Chain Costs Could Rise to 7% Above Inflation

Several factors are expected to cause the supply chain to experience a high rate of inflation by the fourth quarter of 2025. "Inventories stockpiled ahead of tariff deadlines are now being depleted, forcing companies to restock at higher prices," said Suketu Gandhi, a partner at Kearney. "This is an early signal that the cost of goods and materials is rising before they reach store shelves, creating intensifying margin pressure."

A new Supply Chain Navigator report from Kearney concludes that, looking purely at economic factors, supply chain costs are expected to rise about 2% above inflation. However, when accounting for tariffs, sentiment, and other risk-based factors, that increase could reach 4% to 7% above inflation. Trade friction is constant, with applied tariffs up 30% year over year. Add in tight labor markets, which are exerting price pressure. However, a bright spot is that energy and freight costs are declining but remain volatile due to geopolitical risks.

Read more at Material Handling & Logistics

Kraft Heinz Is Splitting Into Two Companies

After more than a decade together at Kraft Heinz KHC -2.04%decrease; red down pointing triangle, ketchup is breaking up with hot dogs. The food giant said it plans to split its business into two companies, unwinding an industry megamerger that married two packaged-food behemoths. In the breakup, one global company would focus on sauces, spreads and seasonings, while another would sell grocery staples in North America. The move aims to create businesses with more focus and less complexity, Kraft Heinz said, and deepens a reversal of the food industry’s yearslong strategy of pursuing deals to build scale.

The transaction undoes much of the work done from the much-maligned merger of Kraft and Heinz in 2015, a deal arranged by Warren Buffett and Brazilian private-equity firm 3G Capital Partners. The division comes as corporate breakups are coming into vogue in the food and beverage industry. Kellogg in 2023 split into two companies, a snack giant named Kellanova and a North American cereal business called WK Kellogg. Keurig Dr Pepper is unwinding a 2018 transaction that had united a coffee maker and beverage company under the same roof.

Read more at The WSJ

Activist Investor Elliott Takes $4 Billion Stake I Pepsi, Sees ‘Historic’ Value Opportunity

PepsiCo shares popped Tuesday after Elliott Investment Management took a significant stake as the activist investor sees a “rare” and “historic” opportunity for a turnaround in the iconic soft drink giant. Elliott’s bet in Pepsi is worth $4 billion, becoming the consumer giant’s top five active investors excluding index funds, according to FactSet. The activist investor sent a presentation and letter to Pepsi’s board of directors Tuesday, detailing a clear agenda focused on restoring business momentum.

“While unfortunate, this disappointing trajectory has created a historic opportunity: With the right mindset and an appropriately ambitious turnaround plan, PepsiCo today represents a rare chance to revitalize a leading global enterprise and unlock significant shareholder value,” Elliott wrote in its letter. “Elliott’s goals at PepsiCo are straightforward: help the Company sharpen focus, drive innovation, become more efficient and unlock the value that its leading brands, unmatched scale and worldclass employees deserve. The path back to winning is clear and achievable,” Elliott said.

Read more at CNBC

Boeing Drops First Look at F/A-XX Sixth-Gen Fighter, Sparks F-47 Comparisons

Boeing has dropped the first public rendering of its proposed F/A-XX fighter, offering a glimpse at a design that appears to echo elements of the US Air Force’s F-47 combat aircraft. The image shows the aircraft flying above a US Navy aircraft carrier, partly shrouded in clouds that obscured possible canards and wingtips, with no tail visible. The cockpit shape bears a resemblance to the F-47, while the navy version’s smaller radome contrasts with the air force fighter’s wider nose.

Earlier Boeing concepts have also explored tailless designs, suggesting a consistent approach in its next-gen thinking. Although both the F/A-XX and F-47 are classified as sixth-gen fighters, their roles differ. The F/A-XX is expected to extend range by about 25 percent over current strike fighters and use a derivative engine. On the other hand, the F-47 will feature a new adaptive power plant capable of a combat radius exceeding 1,000 nautical miles (1,151 miles/1,852 kilometers) and speeds above Mach 2 (2,470 kilometers/1,535 miles per hour).

Read more at Next Gen Defense

Olympics Could Be Proving Ground For eVTOL Air Taxis

The FAA’s Innovate28 blueprint forecasts 2028 as the year electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) air taxis reach operational scale in major U.S. cities, such as Los Angeles. The City of Angels is slated to host the 2028 Olympic Games that summer. If scale is the goal, there are few events grander than the Olympics. “It’s the biggest show you could ever imagine, and it just so happens to be in the best city in America for this type of service,” Adam Goldstein, founder and CEO of Archer Aviation, told FLYING at the Paris Air Show in June. “LA has over 5 million daily trips that go less than 20 miles and take over an hour.”

Archer, the developer of the four-passenger Midnight air taxi, believes it can seize the opportunity. The company in May was tapped by the event’s organizing committee, LA28, as the Games’ official air taxi provider. The plan is to ferry spectators, dignitaries, VIPs, and even athletes between Olympic venues—such as the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum and SoFi Stadium in Inglewood—in as little as 10 minutes, using a Team USA-branded Midnight.

Read more at Flying

Updated: Tracking CHIPS and Science Act awards

It’s been more than three years since the Biden-Harris administration ushered through the CHIPS and Science Act, a landmark technology law that allocates $52.7 billion to bolster U.S. semiconductor manufacturing, research and workforce development. The monumental legislation aims to onshore chip manufacturing, an industry that has long been dominated by foreign countries such as China, Taiwan and South Korea.

Included In The Law Is $39 Billion Allocated For Semiconductor Manufacturing Projects, Which The Commerce Department Began Doling Out As Funding Awards In December 2023. The Commerce Department Has Been Renegotiating Some Of The Multibillion-Dollar Contracts To Chipmakers Funded By The Legislation, Secretary Howard Lutnick Said During A Congressional Budget Hearing In June 2025.Manufacturing Dive Is Tracking The Status Of Each Award Funded By The CHIPS Act’s $39 Billion For Manufacturing Projects. Read On For The Status And Details Of Each Project.

Read more at Manufacturing Dive

Tesla August Sales Slide Again In Key European Markets — And China

New reports from around the globe show that Tesla’s demand issues in August persist in key regions, including a new growth territory: India. In France, Tesla registered only 1,331 vehicles compared to 2,532 a year ago, representing a 47.2% drop, according to the PFA auto lobby. Meanwhile, overall August auto sales in France were up 2.2% in the month. Tesla sales in Sweden (down 84%) and Denmark (down 42%) tumbled as well, per Mobility Sweden and Mobility Denmark. EV-crazed Norway was a lone bright spot, with sales up nearly 22%. Germany and the UK, Tesla’s two other larger territories, will report August sales later this month.

Depressed demand is also an issue in China, though not to an extreme degree as seen in Europe. Tesla's China sales dropped 4% in August from a year earlier, following an 8.4% slip in July, per Reuters, though sales were up month over month. Elsewhere in Asia, Turkey remains a bright spot for Tesla. Reuters reports that Tesla sold 8,730 Model Y SUVs in August, up 86% from the previous month, which gave Tesla a 50% EV market share, according to industry data source EBS Danismanlik. Tesla sales year to date in Turkey surged more than 400% compared to a year ago to around 26,000 units.

Read more at IndustryWeek

Nestlé CEO Fired After 'Romantic Relationship' With Subordinate Exposed

Nestlé has dismissed CEO Laurent Freixe with immediate effect after determining he had not disclosed a “romantic relationship” with a direct subordinate. The Swiss multinational, maker of Kit Kat chocolate bars and Nespresso coffee capsules, confirmed the decision following an inquiry overseen by chair Paul Bulcke and independent director Pablo Isla. The BBC reported that the case originated from a tip submitted via the company’s whistleblowing channel.

The company said the matter was treated as a conflict of interest because the employee involved was not part of the executive board. Bulcke and Isla directed the investigation “with the support of independent outside counsel.” Freixe, who joined the company nearly four decades ago, became global chief executive in September last year after succeeding Mark Schneider. Nestle confirmed he will not receive an exit package. The BBC said it had contacted Freixe for comment.

Read more at HR Grapevine

Quote of the Day

"I firmly believe that any man's finest hour, the greatest fulfillment of all that he holds dear, is that moment when he has worked his heart out in a good cause and lies exhausted on the field of battle - victorious."

Vince Lombardi - American Football Coach who died on this day in 1970.

If you’re part of a Council of Industry member company and not yet subscribed, email usIf you’re not a Council member, become one today.

Facebook  Instagram  LinkedIn  X  Youtube