Member BriefingOctober 20, 2026

Posted By: Harold King Daily Briefing,

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Manfuacturing Import And Export Costs Keep Rising

U.S. import prices increased 1.1% in September, after rising 0.5% in August, driven by higher fuel and nonfuel import prices. Over the year, import prices jumped 8.1%, the largest annual gain since July 2022. Meanwhile, U.S. export prices rose 2.2% in September, led by higher prices for both agricultural and nonagricultural exports. Over the past year, export prices climbed 11.6%.

In September, U.S. import prices for manufacturing climbed 6.6% over the year, with all subsectors experiencing price increases. Petroleum and coal products manufacturing recorded the largest over-the-year import price increase, surging 50.6%. On the other hand, import prices for electrical equipment, appliance and component manufacturing ticked up just 0.5% from September 2025. Meanwhile, U.S. export prices for manufacturing advanced 9.0% over the year, with petroleum and coal products manufacturing exhibiting the largest rise (48.8%).

Read more at The BLS

NFIB: Uncertainty Grows and Optimism Fades Slightly on Main Street in September

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index declined 0.8 points in September to 97.9, one-tenth of a point below the 52-year average of 98.0. The Uncertainty Index rose 1 point to 90, remaining well above the historical average of 68. Labor quality or availability remained the top reported issue for the third consecutive month. Key findings include:

  • Reports of labor quality or availability as owners’ single most important problem rose 3 points in September to 26%, making it the top reported issue for the third consecutive month.
  • The second top issue in September was inflation, with 20% of owners reporting it as their single most important problem, up 4 points from August. September’s reading remains elevated, with a historical average of 7%.
  • Poor sales and taxes are tied as the third most important problem among small business owners in September. Eleven percent of small business owners reported poor sales as their top issue, up 1 point from August and the third consecutive month of increase. The percent of small business owners reporting taxes as their single most important problem decreased 5 points from August to 11%.
  • Expectations for better business conditions worsened for the second consecutive month. A net 6% (seasonally adjusted) of owners expect better conditions in the next six months, down 4 points from August but remaining above average.
  • Only 7% (seasonally adjusted) of owners reported that it is a good time to expand their business, down 5 points from August.
  • A net 8% of owners reported paying a higher interest rate on their most recent loan, up 4 points from August and the highest level since June 2025. The average interest rate on short-maturity loans was 8.2% in September, up 0.7 points from August and close to the historical average of 8.3%.

Read more at The NFIB

New York Fed: Service Sector Activity ‘Declined Significanlty’ in October

Business activity declined significantly in the region's service sector in October, according to firms responding to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Business Leaders Survey. The survey's headline business activity index fell twelve points to -20.7, its lowest level since March.

  • The business climate index was little changed at -35.0, with just over half of respondents reporting an unfavorable climate.
  • The employment index rose five points to zero, suggesting that employment held steady after edging lower last month.
  • The wages index was little changed at 28.2, indicating that wages continued to increase at a modest pace.
  • The prices paid index held near 70.0, signaling that input prices continued to increase sharply, while the prices received index rose three points to 36.3, its highest level in four years.
  • The capital spending index moved down two points to -4.2, indicating that capital spending edged lower.
  • The supply availability index rose three points to -13.3, suggesting that supply availability continued to worsen, though somewhat less so than last month.
  • The index for future business activity fell ten points to -5.1, dropping into negative territory for the first time since December of 2025 and suggesting that firms expect a small decline in activity over the next six months.
  • The index for future capital spending turned negative, pointing to weak capital spending plans.

Read More at The New York Fed

US Homebuilder Sentiment Tumbles To Near 14-1/2-Year Low In October

The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market index dropped three points to ‌29 this month, the lowest level since June 2012. The decline also reflected labor shortages amid an immigration crackdown as well as rising costs because of tariffs on imports. The ​share of builders reporting ⁠cutting prices to attract buyers jumped to 43% in October, the highest share during the 2020-2026 period. The average price reduction was unchanged at 6% for the seventh ​straight month. The use of sales incentives was at 65%, the 19th consecutive ​month that at ⁠least 60% of builders have done so.

Sagging demand ​has left homebuilders with excess inventory of unsold new homes on the market, also discouraging them from ​breaking ground on new single-family housing projects. "Higher ​mortgage rates, elevated construction costs and weaker consumer confidence are ​keeping more buyers on the sidelines," said Robert Dietz, NAHB chief economist. "As a result, buyer traffic has fallen to its lowest level ​since April 2012, excluding the pandemic's onset in April 2020."

Read more at Reuters

Iran and the Middle East

Ukraine

Other World Headlines

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Lame Duck, High Stakes: Congress’s Postelection Agenda

With government funding, defense authorization and essential policy extensions unfinished, this lame-duck session could be the most active in years. The election will determine the appetite for deals: Republican losses would increase pressure to act before surrendering control, while giving Democrats more reason to wait. Republicans are already weighing a year-end debt-limit increase to prevent Democrats from using a future borrowing deadline to pressure President Donald Trump and extract policy concessions. That effort could anchor a third reconciliation package before the new Congress convenes.

Must Pass:

  • Government funding. Congress must replace the current stopgap by December 11. The main decision is whether to settle fiscal 2027 spending now or extend funding into the next Congress. R
  • Defense authorization. The FY27 National Defense Authorization Act remains a central year-end objective. Iran war oversight and policy riders complicate negotiations.
  • Essential extensions. Surface transportation authorities expire December 11, and Export-Import Bank authorization expires December 31. Selected healthcare extensions and farm-program renewals.

Nice to Do:

  • Tax extenders and corrections. A targeted package could combine renewal of the lapsed Work Opportunity Tax Credit with Taiwan double-taxation relief, tax-administration changes or restoration of the full gambling-loss deduction up to winnings.
  • Permitting reform. The September 30 release of the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act (S. 5653) gives negotiators a framework for action. It would accelerate environmental reviews and transmission development, protect existing permits and require data centers to cover associated transmission costs.
  • Other bipartisan agreements. The farm bill, the Water Resources Development Act, hospital price transparency and narrower healthcare or infrastructure measures could join a year-end package.

Read more at Wilmer Hale

What To Expect At The Next Week’s Fed Meeting Now That Rate-Hike Odds Are Rising

Market participants and economists are split on the question of whether or not the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by another quarter-point in two weeks. Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh won’t mind. He has stressed that he wants officials to hold off from telegraphing their plans ahead of Fed meetings, allowing a open debate among officials at their two-day meetings. Their next is set for Oct. 27-28.

Prior to Wednesday’s release of the September consumer-price inflation report, traders in derivative markets were thinking that the Fed would keep rates unchanged at their October meeting following a quarter-point hike last month, the first since 2023. But the strength and breadth of the surge in inflation in September has changed the equation and raised market expectations for an October rate hike to nearly 40%, up from 22% one day ago.

Read more at MarketWatch

'Medicare For All' Support Surges With Health Care Costs On The Rise

For many years, KFF has been tracking public opinion on the idea of a national health plan, including questions specifically about “Medicare-for-all” since 2017. This 2026 midterm election cycle, some progressive Democratic candidates have been campaigning on their support for Medicare-for-all, in which all Americans would get their insurance from a single government plan. As U.S. adults struggle to afford their health costs, many are looking for changes to the health care system. Views on Medicare-for-all are related to the broader question of the role of the federal government in providing access to health insurance, which has wide support among the public.

  • Eight in ten (79%) adults say they favor the federal government doing more to help provide health insurance for more Americans, while one in five oppose a larger role for the federal government.
  • Support for a larger federal role is bipartisan, including nearly all Democrats (94%) and eight in ten independents (82%). A smaller majority of Republicans (61%) favor a larger role for government.
  • When respondents in the KFF poll were told the effects of Medicare for All, support plunged. Only 52% were in favor when told that private insurance would be eliminated, 38% when learning Medicare for All could threaten the current Medicare program, 35% once they considered that Medicare for All could require most Americans to pay higher taxes, and 24% after learning it could lead to delays for medical tests and treatments.

Read more at KFF

November Election Headlines

More Policy and Politics Headlines

The Workplace Cost Of Depression And What Employers Can Do

October is National Depression and Mental Health Screening Month. For employers, it’s an opportunity to examine what their teams carry into work and how their jobs may contribute to poor mental health. People don’t leave depression at the door. It follows them into workplace meetings, customer interactions and in handling the tasks that once felt routine. On top of this, workplace stress adds to that burden. A 2026 Gallup poll found that 53% of U.S. employees experience significant stress, and nearly 25% have felt sadness on the job.

Fortunately, employers can help. In fact, funding employee mental health and wellness programs can have a tangible ROI. Studies suggest that every dollar invested in effective mental health support can generate up to $18 in productivity and cost savings. That begins with looking honestly at workloads, staffing and expectations. Simply asking people to manage stress while maintaining unrealistic deadlines or constant availability sends a confusing message. Managers should not diagnose or treat mental health conditions, but they need to know how to check in, listen without judgment and direct someone to resources while respecting their privacy and reassuring employees that there won’t be repercussions for sharing a mental health concern.

Read more at The Daily Record

Upcoming Council Programs

Events

Annual Luncheon and Expo - Friday November 20, 11:00 AM - 2:00 PM. The Grandview, Poughkeepsie.

Insight Exchange - On Demand Webinars

The Orange County Foreign Trade Zone (FTZ): Duty Elimination, Reduction Deferral - Presented by Steve Gross, Orange County Economic Development

C3POA - Key Perpectives on your CMMC Compiance Journey - Presented by Nick DeLena, PKF O'Connor Davies.

CMMC for Legacy Equipment: Securing Specialized Assets with Zero Trust Micro-Enclaves - Presented by Marc Hoover, Trout Software.

See previous episodes here!

Training

Effective Business Communication, (A CML Course) October 21, 8:30 - 4:30. SUNY Orange Newburgh.

Making a Profit in Manufacturing, (A CML Course) October 28, 8:30 - 4:30. SUNY Orange Newburgh.

Lean Overview and Simulation, (A CML Course) November 19, 8:30 - 4:30. SUNY Orange Newburgh.

Risk Management: Enviroment Health and Safety, (A CML Course) November 19, 8:30 - 4:30. SUNY Orange Newburgh.

Strategies for Motivation, Coaching and Managing Difficult People, (A CML Course) November 19, 8:30 - 4:30. SUNY Orange Newburgh.

Trade Wars

China’s Economy Expanded 4.5% in Third Quarter, Powered by Exports

China’s economic growth picked up in the third quarter, recovering from a three-year low as booming exports mitigate a deepening economic slowdown at home. Gross domestic product expanded 4.5% in the period between July and September compared with the same period a year earlier, according to official data released Monday. This is up from 4.3% last quarter, which marked the slowest growth since 2022, when the Covid-19 pandemic hammered the Chinese economy.

The artificial intelligence boom has fueled China’s manufacturing engine, driven by global demand for the chips and tech equipment needed to build data centers and expand computing power. “The export sector is the bright spot in the economy,” said Jeremy Zook, senior director at Fitch Ratings. China is “quite a huge beneficiary” of the global build-out of AI infrastructure, he said. But at home, the picture is gloomy. A protracted crash in property—which was a major driver of China’s growth for years—is a painful drag on the economy. Falling property prices erode household savings, making Chinese households unwilling to spend.

Read more at The WSJ

JPMorgan Chase’s First $5 Billion of Defense Investments - Robot Factories And Hypersonic Missiles

JPMorgan Chase  has made $5 billion in startup investments in the first year of its U.S. security and resiliency initiative, the company said Monday, a faster-than-expected pace that indicates the bank is finding plentiful opportunities in emerging defense, manufacturing and supply chain firms. The bank, which last year said it would deploy $10 billion into startups over a decade, may expand the program beyond that initial dollar amount, JPMorgan co-President Doug Petno told CNBC in an interview. Most of those investments have yet to be disclosed, but two known stakes seem emblematic of the project’s mission to bolster companies that are needed for a more dangerous and chaotic era of geopolitics.

JPMorgan, the biggest U.S. bank by assets, has taken direct stakes in defense-related startups Hadrian and Castelion. In August, the bank helped lead a $1.4 billion funding round for Hadrian, which builds automated factories that make parts for the defense, aerospace and maritime sectors. A California factory run by Hadrian has 10 robots for every human employee, according to the startup’s founder. Also in August, the bank was involved in a $1 billion funding round for Castelion, whose flagship product is a relatively low-cost hypersonic missile called Blackbeard. Castelion was founded in late 2022 by a group of former SpaceX engineers.

Read more at CNBC

Micron And Other Chip Stocks Spring Back To Life After Bruising Selloff

AI-linked stocks bounced back on Monday from a bruising ​selloff last week as yields on government bonds dropped and crude oil prices eased, while CoreWeave gained following ‌a rating upgrade. Its shares were up 2.4% in choppy trading after losing a quarter of their value last week as the neocloud company's $50 billion debt triggered a crisis of confidence, sparking a global selloff across AI and tech stocks. Advanced Micro Devices’ is up 4%. Shares of Intel and Micron Technology, which have both been major beneficiaries of AI-driven demand so far this year, are climbed 4.5% and 3.9%, respectively.

"You could certainly see a dead cat bounce today and maybe some continuation tomorrow, but it doesn't change the fact that the bond market is very skeptical about ​continuing to finance this without demanding higher and higher yields," said Thomas Hayes, chairman at Great Hill Capital. The AI trade stumbled last week after a hot inflation reading ​raised bets for interest-rate hikes, fuelling concerns that heavily indebted AI companies could face higher borrowing costs. Morgan Stanley expects total AI investment to surge to $1.6 trillion ‌in 2027 ⁠and $1.8 trillion in 2028.

Read more at Reuters

Lockheed Martin Plans To Expand Aerospace Operations In Colorado

Lockheed Martin plans to expand its Space division’s operations at existing facilities in Douglas County and Jefferson County, Colorado, adding up to 1,250 jobs over the next four years. The company, which researches, designs, develops and manufactures aerospace, defense and security systems, did not disclose the amount of money it will invest in the expansion.

The new positions will include cybersecurity engineers, software engineers, technicians and administrative services roles. The expansion is intended to support the company’s delivery of solutions for customers’ needs. The company’s existing Colorado operations support the production of weather, communications and GPS satellites, national defense systems and spacecraft, including vehicles developed for human and robotic space exploration.

Read more at Plant Services

Self-Driving Big Rigs Rack Up Miles, Just Don’t Tell Them to Back Up…Yet

Moving goods across the U.S. is getting more expensive, with fewer drivers and surging fuel costs. So the flat, straight stretch of I-45 between Dallas and Houston is serving as a lab for dozens of driverless big rigs, some without human drivers and others with one riding along, just in case. Pittsburgh-based Aurora Innovation expects to have 200 autonomous trucks on the road in Texas and nearby states by year’s end, up from about 30 today. Volvo Autonomous Solutions plans to roll out 300 autonomous trucks with Aurora and Waabi by the end of 2027 in Texas and Oklahoma. Aurora estimates that by 2030, 30,000 autonomous trucks could be on the roads.

Right now, a typical driverless truck run is best suited for the middle-mile. The truck drives itself from a depot to another where the trailer is unloaded or a human takes over for docking or the final mile. Driverless 18-wheelers can’t back up without a human driver, though the companies say they are working on that.

Read more at The WSJ

Turkish Airlines Books Hundreds of Engine Deliveries, MRO

Turkish Airlines and CFM International struck a memo of understanding for an expansive deal involving hundreds of LEAP-1B engines and long-term service. No costs have been indicated for the deal, but based on typical purchases and aftermarket services for the LEAP engine program it could be worth up to $10 billion for CFM International. The LEAP-1B is the Boeing-optimized variant of the LEAP high-bypass turbofan engine series developed by CFM - which is a joint venture of GE Aerospace and Safran Aircraft Engines - to provide high fuel efficiency, reduced emissions, and lower noise levels the Airbus A320neo, Boeing 737 MAX, and COMAC C919 commercial jets.

The supply will include at least 200 engines plus spares to outfit the 100 Boeing 737 MAX aircraft that Turkish Airlines ordered last month for its planned fleet expansion, an order that includes purchase options for 50 more aircraft - meaning another 100 engines plus spares.

Read more at American Machinist  

Port of Savannah To Build 3.5M TEU Container Terminal

Georgia Ports Authority received approval for a new container terminal capable of handling 3.5 million TEUs from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, according to an Oct. 14 press release. The $2.3 billion Savannah Container Terminal will span 350 acres, with construction set to start in January 2028 and be completed in the mid-2030s. The new terminal will turn the Port of Savannah into a 12 million TEU gateway container port, per the release.

The Port of Savannah is also more than 60% through an expansion of its Ocean Terminal to handle 1.75 million TEUs annually, up from 200,000. The project is expected to be completed by the end of 2028. For shippers transporting goods to markets such as Atlanta and Memphis, Tennessee, the port “provides a clear economic advantage compared to West Coast routes,” according to Chris Gaffney, managing director of the Supply Chain and Logistics Institute at Georgia Tech.

Read more at Supply Chain Dive

IEA Expects Tight Diesel Market in 2027 Despite Production Recovery

In its monthly oil market report published Wednesday, October 14, the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that global gasoil and diesel production should improve in the first quarter of 2027. This recovery would not be enough, however, to rebuild the volumes lost in 2026, and the organization warns that "the market will remain tight in 2027". The IEA attributes the tightening observed in the third quarter of 2026 to two simultaneous shocks. The war in the Middle East disrupted hydrocarbon exports, notably of petroleum products. The war between Russia and Ukraine increasingly targeted energy infrastructure, including Russian refineries.

According to the agency, global diesel production fell to 26.4 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2026, 1.5 million barrels per day lower than a year earlier. It puts third-quarter production at 27.2 million barrels per day, down 1.7 million barrels per day year on year. OECD diesel stocks reached 565 million barrels in July 2026, 5% below their pre-conflict level in the Middle East, according to the IEA. The agency estimates that the global diesel market shifted to a deficit of about 100,000 barrels per day in the third quarter of 2026, compared with a surplus of 880,000 barrels per day a year earlier.

Read more at Energy News

Daily Market Update Oct 19, 2026

The November ’26 natural gas contract is trading down $0.01 at $3.11. The November ’26 crude oil contract is down $0.91 at $100.50.

Read more at NRG

Learn more about the Council of Industry Energy Buying Group

Quote of the Day

“I was surprised, as always, by how easy the act of leaving was, and how good it felt. The world was suddenly rich with possibility.”

Jack Kerouac - American Writer from his Novel 'On the Road.' He died on this day in 1969.

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