Member Briefing August 13, 2026

August 13, 2026

Posted By: Harold King in Daily Briefing,

CPI = 3.4% Consumer Prices Rose 0.1% In July. Core CPI Fell To A Joint Five-Year Low.

The consumer price index, part of the Federal Reserve’s inflation dashboard, showed a seasonally adjusted increase of 0.1% during July, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Excluding food and energy, the so-called core CPI rose 0.2%. On an annual basis, the inflation rates were 3.4% and 2.5%, both down 0.1 percentage point from June. Though the levels held well above the Fed’s 2% target, the tame monthly readings, coupled with similarly moderate levels in June, indicate that the energy-fueled burst earlier in the year is easing, though prices remain volatile and subject to constantly changing conditions in the Middle East.

Energy prices dropped another 1.5% for the month following a 5.7% decrease in June. Still, the sector saw an annual increase of 14.7% including a 10.9% surge in March just after the attacks against Iran began.
Both food and shelter saw 0.1% increases in July. Shelter costs had been stubborn and a key contributor toward keeping the inflation rate above 2%. Even with the modest gain, shelter accounted for about two-thirds of the headline increase, the BLS said. The index was held in check by a sharp 2.8% decline in lodging away from home costs.
New vehicle prices rose 0.1% while used cars and trucks increased 0.4%. Medical care was up 0.4% and airline fares accelerated by 2.2%.

Read more at CNBC

Mortgage Rates Finally Stop Rising, Causing Demand To Trickle Back

After five weeks of gains, mortgage rates fell very slightly last week. That was enough to bring a bit of demand back to the market. Total mortgage application volume rose 3.6% last week compared with the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances, $832,750 or less, decreased to 6.77% from 6.81%, with points increasing to 0.67 from 0.65, including the origination fee, for loans with a 20% down payment.

Applications for a mortgage to purchase a home rose 3% for the week and were 1% lower year-over-year. August is typically one of the slowest months for home sales, but this year appears to be even weaker than last year, due to stubbornly high home prices and less certainty in the overall economy. The supply of homes for sale has also not improved meaningfully. Applications to refinance a home loan rose 5% for the week but were 22% lower than the same week one year ago. Rates were 10 basis points lower one year ago.

Read more at CNBC

Iran and the Middle East

Ukraine

Other World Headlines

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Siena Poll Of Likely New York State Voters: Hochul 49%, Blakeman 39%

Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul leads Republican Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman 49-39%, according to a new Siena Poll of likely New York State gubernatorial voters released today (Siena’s first poll of likely voters this cycle). In June, among registered voters, Hochul led Blakeman 52-32%. In other statewide races, Attorney General Letitia James (D) leads her challenger, Saritha Komatireddy (R), 54-36%, and State Comptroller Tom DiNapoli (D) leads Joseph Hernandez (R) 55-32%. Hochul has a 46-49% favorability rating and a 48-49% job approval rating, while Blakeman has a 33-26% favorability rating, with 40% not knowing enough to have an opinion. By comparison, in August 2022, Hochul had a 46-41% favorability rating among likely voters.

Other Poll Highlights:

By two-to-one, 52-25%, voters say New York’s one-year moratorium on new large data centers is the right decision, including 61% of Democrats, 51% of independents, and a plurality of Republicans, 40-27%. A majority of upstaters and downstaters say the ban is the right decision.
New Yorkers continue to say the country is headed in the wrong direction, rather than on the right track, 62-31%. Democrats and independents strongly believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, while Republicans strongly believe it is on the right track.
Voters are more divided on the direction of the state, with 47% saying wrong direction and 43% saying right track. Democrats say the state is on the right track, 67-18%, however, 86% of Republicans and 55% of independents say the state is headed in the wrong direction.
On the generic Congressional ballot, New York likely voters favor Democrats 54-38%. Not surprisingly, Democrats favor Democrats 88-6% and Republicans favor Republicans 83-11%, while by a small plurality, independents favor Republicans 45-40%.
Likely voters give the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) a negative 30-47% favorability rating in the first time Siena has asked about the DSA. Democrats view the DSA favorably, 50-21%, while 82% of Republicans and 57% of independents have an unfavorable view of the DSA.
In another first for Siena, voters were asked whether they have a favorable or unfavorable view of artificial intelligence (AI). Overall, voters give AI a negative 29-52% favorability rating. A majority of Democrats, joined by pluralities of Republicans and independents, share that negative view of AI.

U.S. Budget Deficit Surged In July To Highest Level Since March 2021

The U.S. budget deficit soared to its highest monthly level in more than five years amid a surge in Medicare costs and as interest on the federal debt continued to weigh on the nation’s fiscal picture, the Treasury Department reported Wednesday. The July shortfall totaled $432.3 billion, up some 48% from the same period a year ago and the largest monthly deficit since March 2021. In addition to the big single-month jump, the collective red ink across the first 10 months of the government’s fiscal year rose to nearly $1.8 trillion and surpassed the same period in 2025.

Medicare expenses for the month totaled $174 billion, up from $103 billion in June and now at $955 billion for the full year. It was the single largest expenditure in July, well ahead of the $141 billion spent on Social Security and $104 billion in net interest on the national debt.

Tariff refunds also hit the budget, costing $33 billion as the administration continues to provide rebates for levies that the Supreme Court ruled illegal.

Debt financing for the full year is behind only Social Security and Medicare as a proportion of government expenses. For the fiscal year to date, the U.S. has paid out $1.17 trillion on the $39.9 trillion national debt, of which $32.1 trillion is held by the public. Net interest, or the Treasury’s gross interest minus the interest it receives, totaled $931 billion.

Read more at CNBC

Senate Releases Budget Resolution To Continue Reconciliation Process

The Senate’s budget resolution to set up a third reconciliation bill was released Aug. 7 by Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wis., chairman of the Senate Budget Committee. It instructs 11 Senate committees to provide up to $150 billion in funding by Sept. 11. No healthcare committees received instructions. The House passed its budget resolution July 21. That version instructs the House committees on Administration, Agriculture, Armed Services and Intelligence to draft legislation that provides up to $95 billion in funding by Sept. 11.

Legislators continue to focus their efforts on a reconciliation bill that would narrowly provide additional funding for defense, farm aid and election-related provisions. The House and Senate must pass an identical budget resolution before moving forward with a reconciliation bill. Additional legislative activity is expected in September when Congress returns to session.

Read more at CNBC

Lilly Sues Six Companies Over Alleged Illegal Sales Of Experimental Obesity Drug Retatrutide

Eli Lilly on Wednesday said it had filed six lawsuits against U.S. companies it accuses of illegally selling black-market versions of its experimental obesity drug retatrutide, escalating its campaign against unauthorized sellers before the medicine has won regulatory approval. The Indianapolis-based drugmaker said the lawsuits target a range of businesses, ⁠including ‌compounding pharmacies, medical spas and online sellers that allegedly marketed ⁠retatrutide products to consumers despite the drug remaining under clinical development. Retatrutide is still in Phase 3 clinical trials for obesity, type 2 diabetes and other related conditions. No regulators have approved the compound for human use, Lilly said.

“What is being sold on the black market is not a medicine — it is entirely unverified, unapproved and not worth the risk,” Lilly Chief Medical Officer Dr. David Hyman said in a statement. Demand for obesity treatments has fueled a thriving ⁠online market for products claiming to contain weight-loss drugs. Some sellers have marketed retatrutide through websites, social media posts and ‌businesses presenting themselves as medical providers, despite sourcing products from ‌unregulated manufacturers, Lilly said.

Read more at CNBC

Ford To Move Production Of Some Lincoln Models From China To US

Ford Motor plans to move production of some Lincoln models from China to the U.S. beginning in 2030, Ford's CEO told Reuters on Wednesday, saying the move was difficult but necessary to strengthen the U.S. auto manufacturing base. Gasoline-powered cars and electric vehicles imported from China are subject to hefty duties. The U.S. tariff on the Lincoln Nautilus, the main vehicle Ford imports from China, is 52.5%, Ford confirmed.

Along with tariffs, automakers have faced restrictions under the Connected Vehicle Rule, which bans some Chinese technology and hardware in U.S. models. Farley said that both regulations prompted Ford to ‌make the ⁠decision, although he pointed to tariffs as the driving factor. Ford was one of several companies requesting authorization from the U.S. Commerce Department to continue selling vehicles potentially restricted under the rule. Automakers denied an authorization, such as EV company Polestar, face bans from selling certain products in the U.S. market. A spokesperson for the Dearborn, Michigan-based automaker said on Wednesday that, after discussions with the Commerce Department, it realized the Lincoln Nautilus no longer needed an ⁠authorization to sell in the U.S.

Member Briefing August 13, 2026

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