Member Briefing December 9, 2025

Posted By: Harold King Daily Briefing,

NY Fed: Inflation Expectations 'Steady'

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York shared in its November 2025 Survey of Consumer Expectations on Monday that inflation expectations for the one-year-ahead horizon remained unchanged at 3.2%, with the three-year and the five-year-ahead horizons also steady at 3%.

  • Median home price growth expectations remained unchanged at 3.0% for the sixth consecutive month.
  • The median expected growth in household income increased to 2.9% in November from 2.8% in October, equaling its trailing 12-month average.
  • Median one-year-ahead earnings growth expectations remained unchanged at 2.6% in November.
  • Perceptions about households’ current financial situations deteriorated notably, with a larger share of respondents reporting that their households were worse off compared to a year ago and a smaller share reporting they were better off.
  • Expectations about year-ahead financial situations also deteriorated slightly, with a smaller share of respondents reporting that their households are expecting to be better off a year from now.
  • Mean unemployment expectations—or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now—improved slightly, decreasing by 0.4 percentage point to 42.1 percent.
  • Perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago deteriorated, with a decrease in the net share of respondents who expect that credit will be easier to obtain a year from now.

Read more at The NY Fed

US Consumer Sentiment Improved This Month But Remains Subdued

The mood of consumers improved slightly in December but remained generally somber with somewhat lower inflation expectations, the University of Michigan said on Friday. The university’s consumer sentiment index rose to 53.3 from 51 in November, with much of the improvement the result of better sentiment among younger consumers. The year-ahead inflation forecast improved to 4.1% from 4.5% in November.

“Overall, while views of current conditions were little changed, expectations improved, led by a 13% rise in expected personal finances, with improvements visible across age, income, education, and political affiliation,” survey director Joanne Hsu wrote. There was some increase in favorable expectations about the labor market, but for the most part the outlook “remained relatively dismal,” Hsu added. “Consumers see modest improvements from November on a few dimensions, but the overall tenor of views is broadly somber, as consumers continue to cite the burden of high prices.”

Read more at Yahoo Finance

AI Isn't Replacing You. It's Helping You Find New Purpose

AI is becoming a routine part of how we work. People use it to draft emails, take notes in meetings, write reports, create presentations, develop strategies, and a whole lot more. And this is very much a one-way street with a clear direction of travel. Consider how we used to approach a problem. We might spend an afternoon brainstorming solutions, sketching possibilities, discarding dead ends, and gradually working our way toward an answer. Now we might describe the problem to an AI model, ask it to generate 10 different approaches, and pick the one we think is best. Or consider writing an important email. We used to draft it ourselves, choosing each word carefully, reworking sentences until they landed right. Now we might describe the message we want to convey, let AI write the first draft, then edit and send.

As AI develops, and as humans become more comfortable with using it, more and more of our cognitive work will get offloaded to our digital helpers. AI won't just do more of our work for us. Much more important, AI is changing the nature of work. AI allows us to have the product without going through the process. We're left with output—often excellent output—but without the pride, the ownership, the sense of accomplishment that comes from having truly created something. And this strips away a crucial part of what makes work satisfying in the first place: the effort that goes into making it, the effort that allows us to say: I did that. To put it succinctly, we gain efficiency but lose meaning. But there's a way out of the crisis, and it requires rethinking both how we see ourselves and where we find meaning in work.

Read more at Psychology Today 

Middle East

Ukraine

Other Headlines

US Congress Unveils Compromise $901B Defense Bill That Exceeds Trump Request

US lawmakers on Sunday unveiled an annual defense policy bill authorizing a record $901 billion in national security spending next year, billions more than President Donald Trump's request, and provides $400 million in military assistance to Ukraine. The sweeping 3,000-page bill includes a 4 percent raise for enlisted troops but excludes a bipartisan effort to spur housing construction that some lawmakers had hoped to include in the final bill.

The measure is a compromise between versions of the National Defense Authorization Act passed earlier this year by the Senate and House of Representatives, both controlled by Trump's fellow Republicans. In addition to the typical NDAA provisions on purchases of military equipment and boosting competitiveness with rivals such as China and Russia, this year's bill focuses on cutting programs reviled by Trump, such as diversity, equity, and inclusion initiatives, and deploying troops to the southwest US border to intercept undocumented immigrants and drugs. It also repeals two resolutions authorizing the use of military force in Iraq in 1991 and 2002.

Read more at US News

Supreme Court Appears Poised To Rule For Trump On Independent Agency Firings

The Supreme Court on Monday appeared poised to side with President Donald Trump and allow him to fire a member of the Federal Trade Commission without cause, a move aimed at upending the long-standing concept of independent federal agencies. In a significant case on the structure of the federal government, the conservative-majority court heard oral arguments on whether Trump had the authority to fire Rebecca Kelly Slaughter notwithstanding a law enacted by Congress to insulate the agency from political pressures.

The 1914 law that set up the FTC says members can be removed only for “inefficiency, neglect of duty, or malfeasance in office.” In ruling for Trump, the court could overturn a 1935 Supreme Court ruling called Humphrey’s Executor v. United States, which upheld those restrictions on the president’s power to fire FTC members. In one exchange, conservative Justice Neil Gorsuch said the Humphrey's ruling was "poorly reasoned" and suggested he would be a vote to overturn it. "There's no such thing in our constitutional order as a fourth branch of government that's quasi-judicial and quasi-legislative," he said. The liberal justices all mounted a defense of the longstanding protections for independent agency members. "You're asking us to destroy the structure of government and to take away from Congress its ability to protect its idea that the government is better structured with some agencies that are independent," said Justice Sonia Sotomayor.

Read more at NBC News

The Fed Is Likely To Cut Rates For A Third Time This Year. What Happens Next Year Is Less Certain.

After consternation about whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates for a third time this year, the consensus is that the central bank will likely go ahead with a 25 basis point cut on Wednesday — even if it's a split decision. “This is a hard call,” said Alan Blinder, former vice chair of the Fed and economics professor at Princeton. “[But] I do think it’s more likely they cut than not… It wouldn’t surprise me if this is a 'hawkish cut.'" That is to say, a rate cut this week could come with a caution to markets not to expect the Fed to keep cutting meeting after meeting.

Luke Tilley, chief economist for Wilmington Trust, who also thinks the Fed will cut rates Wednesday, predicted Fed Chair Jerome Powell will frame a rate cut the same way he did at the last press conference: by emphasizing differing opinions over further rate cuts and cautioning against assuming that the central bank will continue to cut. Fed observers will be watching this week to see what officials signal about the future path of policy. Powell will hold his usual post-meeting press conference, and policymakers will unveil their latest quarterly projections for interest rates, which will include the outlook for 2026.

Read more at Yahoo Finance

More Policy and Politics Headlines

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Drugmakers Are Ditching Middlemen to Sell Directly to Patients

Drugmakers are moving to sell their medicines directly to patients, abandoning the middlemen they have long relied on. The shift is a huge departure from how pharmaceutical companies including Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk and Pfizer have sold drugs for decades and threatens the multibillion-dollar business of firms that have traditionally filled prescriptions.  It is saving some patients hundreds of dollars off the cost of prescriptions because companies have been lowering the prices for drugs sold directly. Meantime, drugmakers who have been rolling out the services in recent months see a big opportunity to boost sales, though they risk losing revenue if they don’t offset lower prices by selling to more patients.

The trend is most pronounced in the booming weight-loss drug market. Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk are seeing big growth in sales of their popular drugs through direct-order services the companies have started since last year. Bristol-Myers Squibb and AstraZeneca, in addition to Pfizer, have launched the services for treatments for diabetes, psoriasis and cardiovascular disease, including the widely used blood thinner Eliquis sold by Pfizer and Bristol-Myers. The growth of the services, which are offered through websites, reflects just how comfortable consumers have become with getting healthcare digitally. Now, many patients talk with doctors and order drugs online.

Read more at the WSJ

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Trade Wars

China’s Trade Surplus Tops $1 Trillion, Underscoring Its Export Dominance

China’s trade surplus in goods this year topped $1 trillion for the first time, a milestone that underscores the dominance that the country has attained in everything from high-end electric vehicles to low-end T-shirts. For the first 11 months of the year, China’s exports increased 5.4% from the year-earlier period to $3.4 trillion, while the country’s imports declined 0.6% over that same stretch to $2.3 trillion. That brought the country’s trade surplus this year to $1.08 trillion, China’s General Administration of Customs said Monday. That remarkable figure, never before seen in recorded economic history, is the culmination of decades of industrial policies and human industriousness that helped China emerge from a poor agrarian economy in the late 1970s to become the world’s second-largest economy.

Chinese exports to the U.S. for November plunged 29% from a year earlier, even as Beijing posted an overall 5.9% increase in exports to the world. That increase was largely the result of a 15% surge in Chinese shipments to the EU from a year earlier, while exports to Southeast Asia climbed 8.2% from the year-earlier period. When calculated by value, China accounts for roughly 15% of global goods exports. But in volume terms, Jens Eskelund, president of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China estimates that every shipping container being sent from Europe to China is outnumbered by the four containers heading in the other direction. In volume terms, he estimates that China accounts for some 37% of everything being exported in shipping containers.

Read more at The WSJ

Nvidia Wins Trump’s Approval to Sell H200 AI Chips in China

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday that he will allow Nvidia (NVDA.O), opens new tab to ship its H200 chips to approved customers in China and other countries, under conditions that allow for continued strong national security. The U.S. Department of Commerce is finalizing the details, and the same approach will apply to AMD, Intel, and other U.S. companies, Trump said in a post on X. The move could be worth billions of dollars for Nvidia, the world's most valuable company.

Nvidia's H200 is a generation behind its latest Blackwell chip, which is considered among the most advanced and high-powered AI chips available anywhere. Trump said the Blackwell chip would not be part of the deal. Trump wrote on Truth Social that the U.S. government would take a 25% cut of sales of the approved chips, up from a previously announced 15%. However, it remains to be seen whether China will allow imports of the chips. After the U.S. said it would allow an even older generation of Nvidia chip, known as the H20, to be sold in China, Xi's government essentially said it did not want them.

Read more at NBC News

Cargo Theft on the Rise With Smaller Businesses Most Vulnerable

Reports of cargo thefts have more than doubled in the last five years, according to CargoNet, a unit of Verisk, a global data and analytics company. More than $325 million in goods have been reported stolen so far this year. Cargo theft hits companies of all sizes, but small businesses are particularly vulnerable because one lost shipment can mean the difference between profit and loss. This kind of theft often goes unreported because businesses don’t know who to contact, they worry their insurance premiums will rise or they don’t want vendors or customers to know, said Jessica Renner, cargo claims and risk manager for Jarrett Logistics, a logistics firm.

Cargo theft hits companies of all sizes, but small businesses are particularly vulnerable because one lost shipment can mean the difference between profit and loss. This kind of theft often goes unreported because businesses don’t know who to contact, they worry their insurance premiums will rise or they don’t want vendors or customers to know, said Jessica Renner, cargo claims and risk manager for Jarrett Logistics, a logistics firm.

Read more at The WSJ

Volvo CEO Predicts 2026 Sales Rebound, Calls U.S. Ideal Market For Electrification

Volvo has been busy since Hakan Samuelsson took over as CEO in April, starting his second stint as chief executive. The company has confirmed it would add production of the XC60, its global bestseller, at its underutilized U.S. factory. Volvo filled a huge gap in its China lineup with the debut of the XC70 long-range plug-in hybrid, which was the automaker’s No. 1-seller in the country last month. And Volvo has added production of the EX30, its top-selling electric vehicle, in Belgium, protecting the small SUV from margin-reducing EU tariffs that contributed to stalled sales in 2025.

The moves have Volvo poised to reverse a global sales slump and return to growth in 2026, Samuelsson said. He discussed this and provided insights on the traits he’s looking for in his successor in an interview with Automotive News Europe Managing Editor Douglas A. Bolduc on Nov. 26.

Read more at Automotive News

IBM to Buy Confluent for $9.3 Billion to Expand AI Services

IBM announced Monday it is acquiring data streaming platform Confluent in a deal valued at $11 billion. “Data, and especially real-time data, is incredibly important to how an enterprise functions,” IBM CEO Arvind Krishna told CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street” on Monday. “Nobody can live with month-old data, or even week-old data, and Confluent has the most capable technology to unlock the real-time value of data.”

Krishna said Confluent will be part of its software unit. IBM said the deal will bolster its artificial intelligence offerings as it expects global data growth to more than double by 2028, with the movement into AI agents accelerating in 2026. The addition of Confluent fits with IBM’s deal last year to land cloud software maker HashiCorp for $6.4 billion and the 2023 move to acquire Apptio in a deal valued at $4.6 billion. Both of those acquisitions were all-cash deals. Confluent has more than 6,500 clients across major industries and works with Anthropic, Amazon’s AWS, Google Cloud Platform, Microsoft, Snowflake and others.

Read more at CNBC

Boeing Completes $8.3B Spirit Aerosystems Acquisition

Boeing completed its acquisition of fuselage supplier Spirit Aerosystems on Monday. The deal is valued at $4.7 billion, and Boeing is taking on the fuselage supplier’s roughly $4 billion in debt, for a total value of $8.3 billion. The acquisition contains all of Spirit AeroSystems’ Boeing-related commercial operations, including fuselages for the 737 program as well as major structures for the 767, 777 and 787 Dreamliner aircraft. Additionally, it involves the commercial purchase of fuselages for P-8 and KC-46 military aircraft. Boeing has also acquired portions of Spirit AeroSystems’ Belfast, Northern Ireland, operations and will function as an independent subsidiary as Short Brothers, a Boeing Company.

Boeing has established Spirit AeroSystems’ defense segment as Spirit Defense, Ortberg said in a statement. The defense segment will continue to support its customers as an independent supplier to the defense industry. It will also act as a non-integrated subsidiary of Boeing’s defense, space and security division for financial reporting as well as select functional and site support while maintaining independent management and operations. The transaction expands Boeing’s global maintenance, repair and overhaul services footprint. Spirit AeroSystems’ aftermarket businesses also add to the company’s rotable, lease and exchange portfolio.

Read more at Manufacturing Dive

NextEra To Build 15 Gigawatts Of Power For Data Centers By 2035

NextEra Energy plans to build 15 gigawatts of new power generation for data center hubs by 2035, CEO John Ketchum told investors on Monday. NextEra is the largest renewable energy developer in the U.S. through NextEra Energy Resources, and also owns Florida Power & Light. The utility also operates a fleet of nuclear- and natural gas-powered plants. NextEra also announced a partnership with Alphabet’s Google unit on Monday to develop three gigawatt scale data center campuses in the U.S. with plans to expand to additional locations.

The data center hubs will use all forms of energy, Ketchum said. NextEra announced a deal with Google in October to restart the Duane Arnold nuclear plant in Iowa through a power purchase agreement. The data center hubs will help NextEra meet its target of building four to eight gigawatts of new gas generation by 2032 and considerably more by 2035, Ketchum said. NextEra is developing a pipeline of 20 gigawats of gas generation.

Read more at CNBC

Solar Flare May Spark Strong Geomagnetic Storm, Northern Lights This Week

It’s been a busy few weeks on the sun, and yet another eruption of material has been blasted out into space. If conditions are right, it could spark strong G3 geomagnetic storm levels on Earth. On Saturday, NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) noted that an M8.1 solar flare, “an eruption of energy from the sun that generally lasts minutes to hours,” had been detected. Considered “more infrequent,” this flare is weaker than the X-class flares seen in November that led to widespread northern lights viewing in the U.S.

Late last night, the SWPC said a full-halo coronal mass ejection, or CME, associated with the flare had occurred. That CME “is expected to impact Earth early to midday” on Tuesday and, depending on “the orientation of the embedded magnetic field,” it could lead to G3 storm levels. When CMEs, essentially “sun burbs” of plasma and magnetic material hurled into space, interact with Earth’s atmosphere, they cause geomagnetic storms. The storms are measured on a five-point scale, much like tornadoes. G3-strength geomagnetic storms have been known to bring the northern lights as far south as the lower Midwest and Oregon. But, forecasting geomagnetic activity can be difficult until the “burb” is closer to Earth. Current forecasting from the SWPC suggests the Kp index could reach such strength at around 4 a.m. EST Tuesday and continue through the day.

Read more at The Hill

Quote of the Day

“Innocence, Once Lost, Can Never Be Regained. Darkness, Once Gazed Upon, Can Never Be Lost.”

John Milton- English Poet from his 'Paridise Lost.' He was born on this day in 1608.

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