Member Briefing December 8, 2025

Posted By: Harold King Daily Briefing,

PCE inflation = 2.8% Delayed September Data Shows Was Lower Than Expected

The core personal consumption expenditures price index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, indicated a 0.2% monthly rise while the annual rate was 2.8%. The monthly rate was in line with the Dow Jones consensus, but the annual level was 0.1 percentage point lower. The core annual rate edged down from 2.9% in August. Headline PCE increased 0.3% for the month, putting the annual inflation rate also at 2.8%. Both of those readings were in line with expectations though the annual rate was up 0.1 percentage point from August. Goods prices surged 0.5% on the month as tariffs continue to work their way through the economy. Services prices were up just 0.2%. Food rose 0.4% while energy was up 1.7%. The report also showed the personal savings rate was unchanged from August at 4.7%.

In addition to the inflation figures, the release provided information on income and spending. Personal income rose 0.4% on the month while spending was up 0.3%. Income was 0.1 percentage point above the forecast, while spending was 0.1 percentage point below the forecast.

Read more at CNBC

Jobs... Jobless Claims Sink To 3-Year Low In No-Hire, No-Fire U.S. Economy

The job market has turned chilly, and it’s unlikely to thaw out anytime soon. The number of people who applied for unemployment benefits around the Thanksgiving holiday fell to a more than three-year low, reinforcing the view that businesses are mostly avoiding layoffs even as they freeze hiring. The drop in new claims last week was likely exaggerated by Thanksgiving. Lots of people who lose jobs around a holiday tend to delay filling out their applications. Still, the number of people losing jobs each week and applying for benefits remains very low historically.

Initial jobless claims sank by 27,000 to 191,000 in the seven days that ended Nov. 29, down from a revised 218,000 in the prior week, the government said Thursday. It’s the lowest reading since September 2022.  The number of people already collecting unemployment benefits — known as continuing claims — fell slightly, to 1.94 million. These claims sit near a post-pandemic high, however, in a sign of how much harder it has gotten to find a job. Read more at MarketWatch

Jobs…. NFIB Jobs Report: Small Businesses Continue Searching for Qualified Applicants

NFIB’s November jobs report found that 33% (seasonally adjusted) of small business owners reported job openings they could not fill in November, up 1 point from October and the first increase since June. Unfilled job openings remain above the historical average of 24% with twenty-six percent have openings for skilled workers. The last time hiring plans reached this level was in December 2024. Firms remain interested in hiring but are finding it difficult to fill openings.

Overall, 56% of owners reported hiring or trying to hire in November, unchanged from October. Fifty percent of owners (89% of those hiring or trying to hire) reported few or no qualified applicants for the positions they were trying to fill (up 1 point). Seasonally adjusted, a net 26% of small business owners reported raising compensation in November, unchanged from October. A net 24% (seasonally adjusted) plan to raise compensation in the next three months, up 5 points from October. The last time plans to raise compensation were at this level was in December 2024. Read more at The NFIB

And more Jobs…. Layoff Announcements Top 1.1 Million This Year, The Most Since 2020 Pandemic, Challenger Says

Announced job cuts from U.S. employers moved further ahead of 1 million for the year in November as corporate restructuring, artificial intelligence and tariffs have helped pare job rolls, consulting firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported Thursday. The firm said layoff plans totaled 71,321 in November, a step down from the massive cuts announced in October but still enough to bring the 2025 total up to 1.17 million. That total is 54% higher than the same 11-month period a year ago and the highest level since 2020, when the Covid pandemic rocked the global economy.

The most-cited reason for the month was restructuring, followed by closings and market or economic conditions. Tariffs were cited as the driver of more than 2,000 cuts in November and nearly 8,000 year to date. Tech companies, driven by innovations in artificial intelligence, listed 12,377 reductions, pushing the sector’s 2025 total up 17% from a year ago. AI itself has been cited for 54,694 layoffs this year. Read more at CNBC

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Hochul Edges Toward Tax Hikes After Mamdani Win

Gov. Kathy Hochul spent months saying she wouldn’t raise taxes. Then Zohran Mamdani won the New York City mayor’s race — transforming the political universe overnight. Mamdani’s victory didn’t just install a democratic socialist in City Hall. It immediately shifted the political terrain around the more moderate governor, flooding Albany with tax-the-rich demands as Hochul reconsiders a position she had treated as nonnegotiable all year.

In the days since the election, Hochul has begun leaving the door open to raising corporate tax rates — a subtle but significant shift for a leader whose career has been defined by adapting to fast-moving political realities. It’s an instinct that has helped her navigate everything from guns to immigration to the state’s bail law. Now she’s confronting a version of that test with far more on the line. Hochul is running for reelection next year, and her decisions in Albany will shape not only her own future but the fate of congressional battleground districts that could determine control of the House. Any move toward higher taxes — especially for large corporations — risks unsettling business allies. Holding a firm line against levy hikes stands to provoke a newly empowered left that believes it delivered a mandate.

Read more at Politico NY

News National Security Strategy Slams European Allies And Asserts U.S. Power In The Americas

President Donald Trump's administration has set forth a new national security strategy that paints European allies as weak and aims to reassert America's dominance in the Western Hemisphere. The document released Friday by the White House is sure to roil long-standing U.S. allies in Europe for its scathing critiques of their migration and free speech policies, suggesting they face the "prospect of civilizational erasure" and raising doubts about their long-term reliability as American partners. The U.S. strategy "is motivated above all by what works for America — or, in two words, 'America First,'" the document said.

Trump's strategy document says it aims to combat drug trafficking and control migration. The U.S. also is reimagining its military footprint in the region even after building up the largest military presence there in generations. With a shift to the Americas, the U.S. will seek a different approach in the Middle East. The U.S., according to the strategy, should abandon "America's misguided experiment with hectoring" nations in the Middle East, especially monarchies in the Gulf, about their traditions and forms of government.Trump has bolstered ties with nations there and sees Middle Eastern countries as ripe for economic opportunities, and the Arab nations are "emerging as a place of partnership, friendship, and investment," the document says.

Read more at NPR - US Department of War - Council on Foreign Relations

NDAA Delays Pile Up As GOP Leaders Work Through Last-Minute Snags

Republican leaders on Capitol Hill are scrambling to hammer out a host of complex, 11th-hour intraparty policy fights in the massive annual defense policy bill, delaying the release of final legislative text beyond the expected date of last Thursday, according to four people granted anonymity to discuss the internal deliberations. GOP leaders are going back and forth with White House officials about a raft of final issues, including Senate housing legislation that the administration wants but a key House committee chair opposes.

With White House officials digging in, congressional GOP leaders are now considering whether to add a revised or scaled down version of the Senate’s “ROAD to Housing” legislation to the Pentagon bill, but no final decisions have been made, according to the people. House Financial Services Chair French Hill has previously opposed the parts of the measure and said in a statement late Wednesday that “any housing package must have the buy-in” of his committee. “Given our Conference has not seen any text, it’s unclear how we could support its inclusion in the NDAA,” Hill said. Other issues GOP leaders are still working through include whether to add in new restrictions on U.S. investments in China, as well as provisions that would expand coverage for in vitro fertilization and other fertility services for military families under the Defense Department’s Tricare health system.

Read more at Politico

More Policy and Politics Headlines

9 Medical Breakthroughs That Gave Us Hope In 2025

Science delivered some remarkable wins in 2025. Breakthroughs across medicine reshaped how we understand human health—and, in some cases, changed how care is provided today. Scientists uncovered surprising new ways to prevent diseases and to boost cancer treatments. They’ve created an atlas of the human body, edited a gene for a single child, and improved care for conditions ranging from food allergies to menopause to cervical cancer and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). These are nine of the year’s most impressive discoveries.

1.     A non-hormonal revolution in menopause care

2.     An allergy rescue for kids without a needle

3.     Giant leaps in regenerative medicine

4.     Better sexually transmitted infection screens

5.     Gene editing for one

6.     Simple, effective HIV prevention

7.     Vaccines that fight more than infection

8.     Stopping pancreatic cancer before it starts

9.     Creating an atlas of the human body

Read more at National Geographic

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Trade Wars

U.S. Steel to Restart Granite City Works Blast Furnace in Illinois

U.S. Steel plans to resume steelmaking at an Illinois plant where the Trump administration intervened last summer to keep production going. The company stopped making steel at Granite City Works two years ago and had planned to further curtail operations before the administration blocked the move in September. It said it now sees signs of rising demand that justify restarting one of Granite City’s two blast furnaces early next year to produce molten iron for steel. U.S. Steel also is expected to need the mill’s steelmaking capacity as some of its other mills undergo improvements promised by Nippon Steel the new owner of U.S. Steel.

“We are confident in our ability to safely and profitably operate the mill to meet 2026 demand,” said U.S. Steel Chief Executive David Burritt. In recent weeks, lead times for filling steel orders at American mills have lengthened, indicating more orders for the metal. The company expects to add about 400 employees at Granite City to operate the blast furnace, raising the plant’s workforce to about 1,200, a person familiar with the matter said. The decision to restart the furnace wasn’t influenced by the Trump administration, the person said.

Read more at The WSJ

US Energy Department Offers $134M To Boost Rare Earth Recovery Projects

The U.S. Energy Department is making up to $134 million available to projects that demonstrate the commercial viability of recovering and refining rare earths originating from mine tailings, discarded electronics and other waste materials, according to a Dec. 1 press release.

The department launched the Notice of Funding Opportunity as another step in the Trump administration’s effort to reduce U.S. dependence on foreign sources for critical minerals essential to military and domestic industries, per the release. “We have these resources here at home, but years of complacency ceded America’s mining and industrial base to other nations,” Energy Secretary Chris Wright said.

Read more at Manufacturing Dive

Post-Bankruptcy, Wolfspeed Receives Nearly $700M Tax Refund From CHIPS Act

Wolfspeed said it has received $698.6 million in cash tax refunds from the Internal Revenue Service through a provision of the CHIPS and Science Act, strengthening its cash position after filing for bankruptcy earlier this year. Wolfspeed is expecting about $1 billion in total from the CHIPS Act provision, which would accelerate its transition from 150-millimeter to 200-millimeter wafer technology. The company sought the 25% tax rebate after spending billions of dollars on a materials plant in Chatham County, North Carolina, and its Mohawk Valley fab in Utica, New York.

The semiconductor company now has a cash balance of $1.5 billion following receipt of funds from the Advanced Manufacturing Investment Credit under Section 48D of the Internal Revenue Code, according to an investor filing on Monday. The refund comes months after Wolfspeed exited Chapter 11 bankruptcy in late September, a move that was related to weak demand and financial struggles. As part of its lender agreement, Wolfspeed said it plans to allocate $192.2 million of the refund to paying down $175 million of debt, with the remaining funds for “general corporate purposes.”

Read more at Manufacturing Dive

Toyota Most Reliable - Tesla Makes Top 10 In ‘Consumer Reports’ 2026 Automotive Brand Ranking

Tesla is the only electric vehicle company to make the top 10 in the Consumer Reports 2026 automotive brand report card, which was released Thursday. Tesla came in tenth place with an overall score of 72 from the consumer advocacy organization. The rankings use overall score and safety ratings for each vehicle in the brand’s lineup. For Tesla that includes the Model 3, X, Y, S and Cybertruck. The overall score takes into account the group’s road-test scores along with reliability and owner satisfaction data. Tesla tied with Mini and Kia for overall score.

In terms of reliability, Tesla ranked ninth with a score of 50 while the only other all-electric company in the mix, Rivian, was dead last with 24. Toyota edged out Subaru for first place with a reliability score of 66. But the comprehensive ranking puts Subaru in the first slot tied with BMW with a total score of 82. The top 10 ranking is as follows: 1. Subaru (82) 2. BMW (82) 3. Porsche (79) 4. Honda (76) 5. Toyota (75) 6. Lexus (75) 7. Lincoln (75) 8. Hyundai (74) 9. Acura (73).

Read more at Forbes

US Auto Sales Fall in November

U.S. auto sales in November underscored the same split that has defined most of the fall selling season: hybrids remain hot, while battery-electric demand continues to cool sharply in the wake of the expired federal tax credits. As the industry adjusts to higher prices, new tariffs and shifting consumer sentiment, major automakers posted another month of mixed results. November 2025 US auto sales were 1.26 million units, according to S&P Global Mobility.

  • Toyota Motor Corp. recorded a 2.7 percent gain in November, with the Toyota brand up 4.4 percent on the strength of light trucks, while Lexus fell 6.2 percent, ending a four-month stretch of increases.
  • Ford Motor Co. saw a modest contraction. Companywide sales slipped 0.7 percent, with the Ford division down 0.2 percent and Lincoln off 12 percent—its fifth consecutive monthly decline.
  • Honda Motor Co. posted the softest results among major Japanese automakers. Sales fell 15 percent as the Honda brand declined 17 percent and Acura slipped 1.4 percent.
  • Hyundai and Kia mirrored the broader industry divide between hybrids and full EVs. Hyundai sales dropped 2.3 percent to 74,289, marking its second straight monthly decline. Kia rose 2.7 percent to 72,002, its fifth consecutive month of gains.

Read more at CarPro

Boeing Close Spirit Aerosystems Merger This Year As FTC Orders Divestitures

Boeing said last week it could close its $4.7 billion acquisition of wing and fuselage maker Spirit AeroSystems (SPR.N), opens new tab by the end of the year after a U.S. regulator said it could proceed, so long as it carried out divestments that have largely been agreed to with rival Airbus (AIR.PA), opens new tab. The deal splits up the financially struggling and problem-plagued Spirit, which was part of Boeing until 2005. Boeing is reacquiring the bulk of Spirit, which makes 737 fuselages, while Airbus will take over facilities in North Carolina and Belfast, Northern Ireland. The total transaction, including Airbus' portion and other pieces, is valued at $8.3 billion.

The FTC's order requires the divestments to Airbus, as well as the sale of Spirit’s Subang, Malaysia, operations, which supplies components for both Airbus and Boeing. A sale to Composites Technology Research Malaysia was negotiated earlier this year. The order also requires Spirit to continue as a supplier to Boeing's competitors vying for future military aircraft programs. Boeing's defense division won the contract for the U.S. military's first sixth-generation fighter, the F-47, earlier this year, and it is competing for the U.S. Navy's F/A-XX fighter contract. The FTC's proposed order would add further regulatory oversight to the implementation of the merger with appointments of two monitors - one for the FTC and another representing the Pentagon.

Read more at Reuters

DOE Grant Supports SMR Project By Tennessee Valley Authority

The U.S. Dept. of Energy is making a $400-million grant to support the Tennessee Valley Authority’s development of a small modular reactor at the Clinch River Nuclear site, in Tennessee. The TVA and GE Vernova sought the grant from the DOE’s Generation III+ SMR program, which is promoting development and deployment of advanced small modular nuclear reactors to supply rising demand for electricity by consumers, data centers, AI needs, and industry. The total cost of the project is reported to be $5.4 billion. TVA has forecast the cost will be lower for future projects as SMRs become more standardized. Other engineering companies and electric utilities also supported the TVA and GE application.

The SMR that TVA hopes to install is based on GE Hitachi Nuclear Energy’s BWRX-300 technology. It is expected to be the first SMR in the U.S. when it starts operating in the early 2030s, though the same technology is being installed in Darlington, Ont., by Ontario Power Generation. BWRX-300 is a 300-megawatt reactor unit that is described as a simplified version of a previous technology (Boiling Water Reactor) that uses natural circulation and passive safety systems to generate electric power without carbon emissions. “The BWRX-300 is the only commercial SMR technology being built right now in the Western world, and this grant will accelerate its deployment in the U.S.,” stated GE Vernova CEO Scott Strazik.

Read more at American Machinist

The Alliance for American Manufacturing 2025 Made in America Holiday Gift Guide

The Alliance for American Manufacturing has unveiled the 12th edition of their Made in America Holiday Gift Guide, an annual collection of American-made gift ideas from all 50 states, the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico. This year, the Alliance has exclusively featured Made in America companies that have not been included in previous Gift Guides. They have uncovered both new-to-us heritage brands and ones that are just getting their start. They also “purposely selected an eclectic mix of items at a variety of price points, so there’s something Made in America for everyone on your list! And, in a new segment, we’ve rounded up a list of local stores that specialize in goods made in their states.”

If you still can’t find what you’re looking for, scroll to the bottom of this page for previous editions of the guide, or check out the Made in America Directory.

Read more at The Alliance for American Manufacturing

Quote of the Day

“Live as brave men; and if fortune is adverse, front its blows with brave hearts”

Horace - Roman Poet and Philosopher who was born on this day in 65 BC.

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