Member Briefing February 11, 2026

Posted By: Harold King Daily Briefing,

Employment Cost Index Rises Less Than Expected In Q4

The Employment Cost Index came in a bit softer than expected in Q4 and points to the labor market continuing to gradually cool. Relative to a year ago, compensation costs were up 3.4%, the slowest pace of growth since early 2021. Although wages & salaries have led the slowdown, benefit costs have also cooled, with health benefits being a notable exception.

The easing in total compensation growth has been underpinned by the gradual slowdown in wages & salaries, which rose 3.3% year-over-year in the fourth quarter (chart). Across industries, wage growth has slowed most noticeably in areas that have seen sluggish hiring over the past year, such as professional & business services and information. Meantime, wage growth has strengthened in construction and retail trade, pockets of the labor market that have likely seen tighter labor supply relative to demand.

Benefit costs rose 3.4% in the fourth quarter, outpacing wages & salaries on a year-ago basis, but still cooling on trend. Rapid growth in health benefits is buoying the overall pace of benefit cost growth, with insurance costs up 6.4% over the past year (chart). A more detailed breakdown of benefit growth is not available with this release. However, the latest report on Employment Costs for Employee Compensation shows supplemental pay, which includes overtime rates and non-production bonuses, leading the slowdown in another sign that underlying employment conditions have softened.

Read more at Wells Fargo

NFIB Small Business Survey: Optimism Remains Above Historical Average

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell 0.2 points in January to 99.3 and remained above its 52-year average of 98. Of the 10 Optimism Index components, three increased and seven decreased. Expected real sales volume was the only component with substantial change, increasing by 6 points. The Uncertainty Index rose 7 points from December to 91. A rise in owners reporting uncertainty about whether it is a good time to expand their business was the primary driver of the rise in the Uncertainty Index.. Key Takeaways from January's report:

  • The percent of small business owners who reported capital outlays in the last six months was at its highest level since November 2023.
  • The percent of owners who reported paying a higher interest rate on their most recent loan was down from December, suggesting credit markets are turning more favorable for small borrowers.
  • The percent of small business owners reporting labor quality as their top problem fell for a third consecutive month.
  • Actual price increases fell but remains well above the historical average, suggesting continued inflation pressure, while planned prices increased.
  • The net percent of owners expecting higher real sales volumes over the next quarter increased.
  • The net percent of owners reporting inventory gains reached its highest level since January 2023.
  • Overall health of business evaluations: Excellent 14%, Good 54%, Fair 27%, Poor 4%

Read more at NFIB

Retail Sales Fizzled At The End Of The Holiday Season, As Tariffs Alter Americans’ Buying Habits.

Sales at U.S retailers fizzled at the end of the holiday shopping season, suggesting consumers worried about the economy might be cutting back on spending as the new year got underway. Retail sales were flat in December, the government said Tuesday in a report delayed by the federal shutdown last fall. The numbers are seasonally adjusted. Fourth-quarter sales more broadly were also on the softer side. In the 12 months ended in December, retail sales increased a decent but below-trend 3.8% in unadjusted terms.

  • Home centers such as Home Depot and Lowe’s were the only retailers to post outsized sales in December. Outlays jumped 1.2%, the government said.
  • Sales fell at auto dealers, clothing stores, pharmacies and big-box electronics retailers.
  • One of the most critical retail bellwethers, restaurants, saw a slight decline in sales in December.

Some of the spending was skewed, to be sure, by richer households that have seen a big increase in wealth due to soaring stocks and rising home values. Middle- and lower-income Americans did not fare as well. They likely began holiday shopping early in a hunt for bargains, partly explaining why retail sales sputtered in the final month of the year.

Read more at MarketWatch

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A Mini Government Shutdown Is On The Horizon Again, As Democrats And Republicans Appear Miles Apart On DHS Funding

The Department of Homeland Security will shut down for the second time in two weeks if Congress doesn’t pass a bill to provide it with more funding by Friday. At this point, there is little optimism on Capitol Hill that a deal can be struck in time to keep the department open. “I absolutely would expect that [DHS is] going to shut down,” Democratic Sen. John Fetterman told Fox News on Sunday.

Democrats are demanding sweeping reforms to rein in the Trump administration’s nationwide immigration crackdown. Thanks to the filibuster, they have the power to block any DHS funding bill from passing the Senate. Republicans have emphatically rejected Democrats’ proposals, calling them “ridiculous” and “radical.” The two sides are so far apart that they’re reportedly not even talking to each other about how they might find middle ground. Jeffries told CNN on Sunday that Democrats “haven’t heard back” from Republican leaders about their list of potential reforms.

Read more at Yahoo Finance

Trump Set To Repeal Landmark Climate Finding In Huge Regulatory Rollback This Week

The Trump administration is set this week to overturn an Obama-era scientific finding that serves as the legal basis for federal greenhouse-gas regulation, the Environmental Protection Agency said on Monday. Repealing the so-called endangerment finding, a scientific determination that greenhouse gas emissions endanger human health, would remove the legal foundation for broader greenhouse gas regulation and would mark the Trump administration's most wide-reaching climate policy rollback. The repeal is expected to be published later this week, and cited EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin saying it would amount to "the largest act of deregulation in the history of the United States."

An EPA spokesperson said the endangerment finding was used by the Obama and Biden Administrations to "justify trillions of dollars of greenhouse gas regulations covering new vehicles and engines." On January 30, a federal court ruled that the Department of Energy violated the law when it formed a climate science advisory group whose report was meant to support the EPA's repeal of the endangerment finding, potentially making the final rule vulnerable to legal challenges. While many industry groups backed the repeal of vehicle emission standards, many were reluctant to show public support for rescinding the endangerment finding because of the legal and regulatory uncertainty it would unleash.

Read more at Reuters

House Overwhelmingly Passes Sweeping Bipartisan Housing Package

The House on Monday overwhelmingly passed a bipartisan, comprehensive housing package aimed at ameliorating the affordability crisis in the U.S. and increasing homeownership.  The legislation, dubbed the Housing for the 21st Century Act, passed the lower chamber by a vote of 390-9. It is sponsored by House Financial Services Committee Chair French Hill (R-Ark.) and ranking member Maxine Waters (D-Calif.), and it passed the committee overwhelmingly in December.

The bill includes more than 20 provisions that would direct the Government Accountability Office to study gaps in federal housing programs and modernize the Department of Housing and Urban Development’s HOME Investment Partnerships Program, among other actions. The bill now moves to the Senate, where lawmakers will likely make changes to the legislation.

Read more at The Hill

More Policy and Politics Headlines

Employees Concerned About Well-being

Worries about overall well-being are on the rise, according to findings from the Sixth Annual Workplace Wellness Survey released by the Employee Benefit Research Institute (EBRI) and Greenwald Research.  A positive finding from the report is that a majority of workers are satisfied with their jobs and value work-life balance. However, many feel disengaged and uncertain about the economy, health care affordability and long-term security. The survey interviewed 1,400 workers from July 18–August 5, 2025, on their attitudes toward employment-based benefits in the workplace.

  • Concerns about physical, mental and workplace well-being have climbed slightly, but financial well-being concerns have eased since 2022. They were slightly higher in 2025, with workers rating their level of concern an average of 5.8 out of 10.
  • Concerns about the economy going into a recession, impacting finances in the next 12 months, were the same as in 2024 (80%), but 40% said the U.S. economy is currently in a recession.
  • Other top concerns are Inflation (89%), the cost of health care (87%), and the cost of health insurance (86%).
  • Fifty-six percent of workers were very or extremely satisfied with their current job, with only 13% expressing dissatisfaction.
  • About 66% of the workers reported that their employers’ efforts to help employees manage their overall well-being have stayed the same, with 23% saying efforts have increased.

Read more at EHS Today

Upcoming Council Programs

Events

Manufacturing Advocacy Day - Tuesday February 24, 2026 -7:45 AM - 3:00 PM. The Fort Orange Club, State Capitol Building and Legislative Office Building, Albany.

Manufacturing Champions Award Breakfast - Thursday May 7, 2026 -7:45 - 10:00 AM. West Hills Country Club, Middletown.

Networks

Health & Safety Sub Council Meeting Topic TBD, March 24, 2026, 8:30 - 10:30. Location TBD

Insight Exchange On Demand Webinars

Webinars and Seminars

Check back soon

Training

Making a Profit In Manufactuirng This course is designed to provide supervisors and team leaders with the financial acumen essential for maximizing profitability and reducing operational risks. January 20 & 21, 8:30 - 12:30 Via Zoom.

Human Resource Management Issues This identifies and explains key legal issues that a manager may have to address in the workplace today. It helps current and future managers realize their responsibility to understand and enforce the employment laws that speak to these issues and minimize their chances of ending up in court. February 3 & 4, 8:30 - 12:30 Via Zoom.

Effective Business Communication This course is designed to build core communication skills essential in professional settings. Topics covered include identifying appropriate communication channels, honing active listening skills, and mastering techniques like paraphrasing, summarizing, and clarifying for better interpersonal communication. February 17 & 18, 8:30 - 12:30 Via Zoom.

FILLING FAST Lean Six Sigma Green Belt This program combines online coursework, with live Zoom sessions, to deliver a flexible and effective learning experience in Lean Six Sigma methodologies. Most Mondays March 2 - June 8 Via Zoom.

(Special Info session for those who are 'Green Belt curious' February 23rd)

FILLING FAST Lean Six Sigma: Yellow Belt - Yellow Belt is an approach to process improvement that merges the complementary concepts and tools from both Six Sigma and Lean approaches. 3 Full days - March 9,10 & 11 - DCC Fishkill.

Trade Wars

The Chinese Factory That Opened in the U.S. and Clobbered Its Rivals

Ohio’s governor, along with state and federal lawmakers, welcomed Fuyao when the Chinese glassmaking giant took over a closed General Motors factory a decade ago. The project, supported by Ohio taxpayers, was hailed as a step to reviving a battered Rust Belt region. Now, many feel duped. Competition from the Fuyao Glass America plant is threatening about 250 jobs at a rival glass factory operating since the 1950s. Vitro, the company that owns the longtime plant in Crestline, Ohio, has spent the past year considering whether to shut down, said Carlos Bernal, Vitro’s head of automotive glass.

The entry of Chinese firms into the U.S. auto industry “not only threatens the safety and security of domestic supply chains,” Bernal said, the companies “jeopardize entire communities that rely on American manufacturing jobs.” Rivals say they can’t match Fuyao’s lower prices and allege the company employs unfair business and labor practices. The Chinese company supplies GM, Ford, Stellantis and other automakers in the U.S.

Read more at The WSJ

Rockwell Automation Confirms Wisconsin Factory Location, Part Of $2B US Expansion

Rockwell Automation CEO Blake Moret announced during a recent earnings call that the company’s upcoming greenfield factory project will be in New Berlin, Wisconsin. The company previously declined to share the location for this planned investment. The company also recently acquired a facility in Mequon, Wisconsin, which it had been leasing, for approximately $60 million.

“These two projects are aligned with our announced investments in our plants, talent and digital infrastructure and underscore our commitment to and confidence in the U.S. market,” said Moret. The project is part of Rockwell’s previously announced plans last quarter to invest in its production plants, digital infrastructure and workforce in an effort to boost its margins over the next five years

Read more at KTVZ

Novelis Fire, Tariffs, EV Reckoning Drag Ford To Worst Loss Since Great Recession

Ford Motor reported its largest quarterly earnings miss in four years in its fourth-quarter results released Tuesday, while guiding for 2026 to be a rebound year for the automaker. Ford’s 2026 guidance includes adjusted EBIT of between $8 billion and $10 billion, up from $6.8 billion last year; adjusted free cash flow of between $5 billion and $6 billion, up from $3.5 billion in 2025; and capital expenditures of $9.5 billion to $10.5 billion, up from $8.8 billion. On a per-unit level, the automaker’s traditional and fleet operations are expected to offset an expected $4 billion to $4.5 billion in losses this year for its “Model e” electric vehicle unit.

Earnings per share were 13 cents adjusted vs. 19 cents expected and revenue was $42.4 billion vs. $41.83 billion expected. The EPS coming in 32% below consensus was the company’s first quarterly miss since 2024 and its worst since a 42% difference when reporting its 2021 fourth-quarter results. The earnings miss was largely due to unexpected tariff costs of roughly $900 million related to credits for auto parts not taking effect as early as expected, the company said. Ford, as of Dec. 15, had confirmed $7.7 billion in earnings before interest and taxes for the fourth quarter, but the additional costs dropped that to $6.8 billion. Ford CFO Sherry House said the lower-than-expected earnings were also related to additional impacts from fires at a Novelis aluminum supplier plant last year in New York, which now isn’t expected to be fully operational until the middle of this year. The plant supplies Ford’s lucrative F-Series pickup trucks.

Read more at CNBC

EIA Predicts Continued Strong Growth in Electricity Demand

Electricity demand is poised for notable growth in 2026 and 2027, marking the strongest four‑year stretch of consumption increases since the early 2000s. Most of this momentum comes from the commercial and industrial sectors, driven heavily by data center expansion, advanced manufacturing, and energy‑intensive processing. Solar leads future generation growth, with the EIA forecasting more than 20% increases in both 2026 and 2027 as more capacity is expected to come online. Wind generation rises modestly at 6% annually, while natural gas stays mostly unchanged and coal generation has an expected decline in 2026.

Regionally, the West South Central region, including Texas, leads the nation. Commercial electricity sales in the region are expected to increase by 10 billion kilowatt hours (BkWh) in 2026 and 33 BkWh in 2027, accounting for about 30% to 50% of total U.S. commercial‑sector growth in each year. Industrial demand in this region also surges, tied to oil and gas extraction, refining, and LNG production.

Read more at EIA. gov

Air India Adding More 737 MAX Jets

Air India has ordered 30 more Boeing 737 MAX aircraft, which the OEM noted will increase the airline’s pending orders to almost 200 single-aisle and widebody jets. The new order includes 20 737-8 jets, and it includes 10 737-10 aircraft previously unidentified among Boeing's order records. No delivery schedule was announced for the 30 aircraft. Neither Boeing nor Air India noted the value of the booking - which is based on options acquired in a 2023 order - but it may have a value up to $4 billion based on the book values for those two models.

Air India is already an important Boeing customer, having ordered a total of 190 737 MAX jets (for Air India Express), 20 787 Dreamliners, and 10 777-9 aircraft as part of an overall $70-billion order with Boeing and Airbus in 2023. The new order may be just a start as India and the U.S. are due to finalize a new bilateral agreement on trade between the two nations. Reportedly, the Indian Minister of Commerce and Industry Piyush Goyal expects India’s pending demand for new U.S.-built commercial jets could be close to $80 billion under the deal.

Read more at American Machinist

Toyota North American Net Income Falls Almost 25% In First Nine Months Of FY2026

Toyota Motor Corp. posted a year-over-year net revenue increase of 9.6% ($255.6 billion) on higher sales volume for the nine-month period of FY2026 ending Dec. 31, the automaker reported in its earnings release Friday. However, Toyota’s YoY operating income decreased from $24 billion to $21.5 billion in the nine-month period, while its net income fell nearly 25%, from $26.8 billion to $20.3 billion.

The automaker said the declines were largely due to U.S. tariffs on vehicle imports from Japan, which had a negative impact of roughly $8 billion on its operating income. Toyota also reported that its profits were further eroded by higher labor and operational costs across its key global markets. In North America, Toyota’s biggest global market, the company reported a rare operating loss of $40 million in the first nine months of FY2026, despite brisk vehicle sales in the region. It was due to a YoY decline of roughly $1.4 billion in operating income compared to a profit of $1.3 billion a year earlier. Toyota also cited tariff pressures for the loss, as well as an increase in expenses and other factors.

Read more at Ward’s Auto

15 Million Pounds Of Food Rescued by Regional Food Bank To Help Feed The Hungry

The Retail Rescue program rescues safe, nutritious food from cooperating grocers that would otherwise be thrown away due to strict guidelines. Last year, the program rescued 15.1 million pounds of food, equivalent to 12.6 million meals. Chief Business Officer for the Regional Food Bank, Joanne Dwyer, says the program is even more important since millions of pounds of food from the USDA were withheld as a result of federal cuts.

She says that they don’t want good food to go to waste. “They’re just things (food) that are no longer sellable, but it’s definitely wholesome and good to eat. And we want to work with everyone we can, whether it’s a retail store or any of those other businesses.”

Read more at Mid-Hudson News

U.S. Frackers Explore New Frontier: Shale Abroad

Back in the early days of the shale boom around 2010, American producers explored going abroad, according to Rob Clarke, U.S. shale analyst at Wood Mackenzie, referring to this initial period as “Global Shale 1.0.” Shale is, after all, the most common sedimentary rock and found all over the world. But production in the Permian Basin was so prolific that companies quit exploration abroad. “One of the things that killed Global Shale 1.0 was the Permian,” Clarke said. Times have changed, and conditions are now ripe for a phase that Clarke calls Global Shale 2.0. The Permian Basin is still a gusher, but the wells aren’t as prolific as they used to be. On average, Permian wells first drilled in 2016 in the Wolfcamp formation were estimated to produce 65 barrels per lateral foot drilled, according to Wood Mackenzie. Wells drilled last year are expected to produce 46 barrels per foot.

So far, there are two countries with shale basins large and proven enough to move the needle: Argentina and Saudi Arabia. Argentina is where U.S. producers are looking, though, because it is more accessible to foreign investors. In 2026 through 2030, Argentina’s Vaca Muerta is expected to add more than 700,000 barrels a day of production, double the amount U.S. producers are set to add over that period, according to Enverus.

Read more at The WSJ

Energy Market Update

Daily Market Update Feb 10, 2026

The Mar ’26 natural gas contract is trading up $0.02 at $3.15. The Mar ‘26 crude oil contract is down $0.19 at $64.48. 

Read more at NRG

Learn more about the Council of Industry Energy Buying Group

Daily Market Update Feb 3, 2026

 

The Mar ’26 natural gas contract is trading up $0.07 at $3.30. The Mar ‘26 crude oil contract is up $0.57 at $62.71. 

Read more at NRG

Learn more about the Council of Industry Energy Buying Group

Quote of the Day

“When you have exhausted all possibilities, remember this - you haven't.”

Thomas Edison - American Inventor who was born on this day in 1847.

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