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Member Briefing July 23, 2025

Date postedJuly 23, 2025
Posted By: Harold King Daily Briefing,

Top Story

Tariffs and Other Challenges Put Downward Pressure on Leading Economic Indicators

The Leading Economic Index, or LEI, published Monday by research group The Conference Board, declined 0.3% to 98.8 in June, a stronger fall than the 0.2% expected by a consensus of economists polled by The Wall Street Journal. It followed an unchanged reading in May that was revised upward from the 0.1% downtick originally reported. The stock price rally was for a second straight month the main support of the LEI, said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager for business cycle indicators at The Conference Board.

However, that wasn’t strong enough to offset still-low consumer expectations, weak new orders in manufacturing, and a third month of rising unemployment-insurance claims, she noted. While no recession has been yet forecast, economic growth is expected to slow substantially in 2025, with the impact of tariffs becoming more apparent as consumer spending slows due to higher prices, Zabinska-La Monica said. The LEI is meant as a predictive index. It is based on 10 components, among them manufacturers’ new orders, initial claims for unemployment insurance, building permits for new private housing units, stock prices and consumer expectations, and aims to signal shifts in the business cycle.

Read more at The Conference Board

The Global Economy Is Powering Through a Historic Increase in Tariffs

The world economy grew at a 2.4% annual rate in the first half of this year, around its longer-term trend, according to JPMorgan. Trade volumes are buoyant, stock markets on both sides of the Atlantic have rebounded to record highs and growth forecasts from Europe to Asia are being raised. Investment, manufacturing employment, spending and overall activity all held up globally, according to Goldman Sachs. “What people have gotten wrong is the chaotic behavior [of trade policy] and the hedging that has introduced,” said Marcus Noland, executive vice president at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, D.C.

In part, businesses are benefiting from reflexes learned and changes made during the Covid-19 pandemic, such as bulletproofing their supply chains, which compressed margins at the time, but is now paying off. Governments from the U.S. to Germany are also spending lavishly, helping to support confidence. Some businesses may be building up inventory now in the expectation that tariffs will be higher in the future, said Angel Talavera, an economist at Oxford Economics. “It seems that the uncertainty is weighing less on economic activity than we thought,” Isabel Schnabel, who sits on the European Central Bank’s six-member executive board, said in an interview published in recent days on the central bank’s website.

Read more at WSJ


Dollar's Dive Offsets Tariff Sting For Some US Bellwethers

A slump in the dollar has come to the rescue of some major multinational U.S. companies this earnings season, easing the sting from President Donald Trump's tariffs that have driven up costs and upended financial planning. A weaker dollar enhances the value of foreign earnings of U.S. companies, while also making American exports more competitive. Companies such as Levi Strauss, Netflix, Pepsi, and 3M, which generate significant revenue from overseas sales, reported a boost to their April-June earnings or raised their annual forecasts due to the slump in the dollar.

Last week, PepsiCo, which relies on international business for about 40% of its total net revenue, forecast a smaller annual profit drop helped by a weaker dollar. The dollar weakness "can be another source of upside that helps solidify the narrative of a very solid earnings season," said Angelo Kourkafas, senior global investment strategist at Edward Jones. The greenback has lost, opens new tab about 10% this year, due to rapidly changing U.S. trade policy and worries about growth and ballooning government debt.

Read more at Reuters

Global Headlines

Middle East

Ukraine

Other Headlines

Policy and Politics

Trump Backs Further Away From Firing Powell: ‘He’s Going To Be Out Pretty Soon Anyway’

President Donald Trump on Tuesday continued his barrage of criticism against the Federal Reserve but seemed to take a step back from any lingering plans to fire Chair Jerome Powell. “I think he’s done a bad job, but he’s going to be out pretty soon anyway,” Trump told reporters during a White House exchange. “Eight months, he’ll be out.” The exchange came amid continued speculation over Powell’s job security and legal questions over what authority Trump has to remove the central bank leader.

Trump has accused Powell of being political and nicknamed him “too late” when it has come time to adjusting rates. “He’s too late all the time. He should have lowered interest rates many times,” Trump said. “People aren’t able to buy a house because this guy is a numbskull. He keeps the rates too high, and [is] probably doing it for political reasons.”

Read more at CNBC

The Growth Of Left-Wing Politics In The Hudson Valley

Assembly Member Sarahana Shrestha arrived in America more than 20 years ago with her own experience of fractured politics. Her native Nepal had seen its monarch murdered at the hands of a fringe royal seeking more power. The violence only added to the air of uncertainty surrounding the country's civil war, with Maoist insurgents fighting government forces in an attempt to secure power. Her 2022 run for elected office proved successful as she overtook longtime Assembly Member Kevin Cahill in the 103rd Assembly District’s Democratic primary before winning in the general election. Since her victory, the left has grown its presence in the Hudson Valley, with the Mid-Hudson Valley chapter of the Democratic Socialists of America swelling its ranks and other progressive groups ramping up their own organizing.

Other progressive primary challengers in the region haven’t been quite as successful as Shrestha, but they’ve come closer than many expected as the Hudson Valley’s electorate shifts to the left, especially with President Donald Trump well into his second term. Organizing around progressive ideals isn’t a new concept in the region, but until Shrestha’s win, many assumed that words like “socialism” would put off voters. Now, the opposite seems to be true, as left-wing politics become more entrenched and Shrestha builds out a progressive stronghold in the Hudson Valley.

Read more at City & State

Trump's Golden Dome looks for alternatives to Musk's SpaceX

The Trump administration is expanding its search for partners to build the Golden Dome missile defense system, courting Amazon.com's Project Kuiper and big defense contractors as tensions with Elon Musk threaten SpaceX's dominance in the program, according to three sources familiar with the matter. The shift marks a strategic pivot away from reliance on Musk's SpaceX, whose Starlink and Starshield satellite networks have become central to U.S. military communications. Due to its size, track record of launching more than 9,000 of its own Starlink satellites, and experience in government procurement, SpaceX still has the inside track to assist with major portions of the Golden Dome, especially launch contracts, sources say.

Project Kuiper, which has launched just 78 of a planned constellation of 3,000 low-earth orbit satellites, has been approached by the Pentagon to join the effort, signaling the administration's openness to integrating commercial tech firms into national defense infrastructure and going beyond traditional defense players. A spokesperson for Project Kuiper declined to comment for this story. The Pentagon declined to comment. The White House did not respond to requests for comment. Golden Dome's ambitions mirror those of Israel's Iron Dome - a homeland missile defense shield - but a larger, more complex layered defense system requires a vast network of orbiting satellites covering more territory.

Read more at Reuters

Political Headlines

Health and Wellness

Scientists Warn Of Toxic ‘Forever Chemicals’ In Reusable Period Products

Many reusable menstrual products that have gained increasing popularity among teens are packed with toxic “forever chemicals,” a new study has found. Among the biggest repeat offenders are washable pads and underwear, according to the study, published on Tuesday in Environmental Science & Technology Letters. And as more consumers opt for multi-use products over their disposable counterparts, the study authors expressed cause for concern. The compounds in question are known as per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) and are prevalent in numerous household items, such as waterproof apparel, nonstick pans and various personal care products.

“Since reusable products are on the rise due to their increased sustainability compared to single-use products, it’s important to ensure that these products are safe,” co-author Marta Venier, an associated professor at the University of Notre Dame, said in a statement. “This is crucial, especially for adolescents and young women, who are more vulnerable to potential negative health effects,” Venier added.

Read more at The Hill

Industry News

Trade Wars

Canadian Boycott Of US Spirits Hurts Broader Alcohol Sales, Trade Group Says

Canadian provinces' boycott of U.S. spirits amid a trade dispute with the United States has caused a sharp drop in sales of American imports, as well as other imported and domestic spirits across the nation, a Canadian liquor trade group said on Tuesday. Sales of U.S. spirits in Canada dropped 66.3% between March 5, when provinces announced they would stop carrying the products in retail stores, and the end of April, according to an analysis by Spirits Canada.

Several Canadian provinces pulled U.S. spirits from liquor stores in response to U.S. President Donald Trump's imposition of a 25% tariff on certain imports. The group, which represents Canadian manufacturers and marketers of distilled spirits, said total spirits sales in Canada fell 12.8% during the same period. "The North American spirits sector is highly interconnected, and the immediate and continued removal of all U.S. spirits products from Canadian shelves is deeply problematic for spirits producers on both sides of the border," said Cal Bricker, president and CEO of Spirits Canada.

Read more at Reuters

Key Earning Reports

General Motors reported second-quarter earnings Tuesday that beat Wall Street’s estimates and affirmed its full-year guidance, despite ongoing uncertainty from President Donald Trump’s auto tariffs. Earnings per share were $2.53 adjusted and revenue was $47.12 billion. GM’s second-quarter results included net income attributable to stockholders of $1.9 billion, down 35.4% from $2.93 billion a year earlier. CFO Paul Jacobson said during an interview on Tuesday that tariffs impacted GM’s second quarter by $1.1 billion, which is in line with GM’s earlier expectations as part of the full-year impact. - CNBC

Coca-Cola reported quarterly earnings and revenue that topped analysts’ expectations as strong demand in Europe offset weaker volume in other markets. earnings per share were 87 cents adjusted and revenue was $12.62 billion adjusted. Coke reported second-quarter net income attributable to shareholders of $3.81 billion, or 88 cents per share, up from $2.41 billion, or 56 cents per share, a year earlier. CNBC

RTX logged higher profit and sales in the second quarter with growth across all segments, reflecting what the aerospace and defense company called continued momentum across its business and robust demand. The Arlington, Va., company on Tuesday posted net income of $1.66 billion, or $1.22 a share, compared with $111 million, or 8 cents a share, a year earlier. Adjusted per-share earnings came in at $1.56 a share, topping the $1.44 a share that analysts polled by FactSet expected. - WSJ

Northrop Grumman raised its annual profit forecast and topped Wall Street estimates for second-quarter revenue on Tuesday, aided by sustained demand for its military aircraft and defense systems as geopolitical tensions simmer. The defense contractor's second-quarter sales rose to $10.35 billion, compared with analysts' average estimate of $10.07 billion. It reported a quarterly net income of $1.17 billion, or a per-share profit of $8.15, compared with the $940 million, or $6.36 per share, a year ago. - Reuters

Lockheed Martin reported on Tuesday that its second-quarter profit plunged by about 80%, after the U.S. defense group recorded a pretax loss of $1.6 billion, mainly linked to a classified program within its Aeronautics segment. the company also trimmed its 2025 profit estimate by $1.5 billion or 18% and said it now targets $6.65 billion in operating profit for the year. Net income fell to $342 million, or $1.46 per share, compared with $1.64 billion, or $6.85 per share, a year earlier. – Yahoo Finance

3M last week reported higher sales and a sharp drop in earnings in its fiscal second quarter. On an adjusted basis, however, organic growth, operating margin and earnings per share all increased. The Minnesota industrial product maker said it posted Q2 sales of $6.3 billion, up 1.4% compared to the same period last year, including organic sales that rose 0.6% over that span.3M’s quarterly adjusted sales of $6.2 billion, meanwhile, included organic growth at a 1.5% clip, and a newly issued full-year outlook raised its earnings per share projections from an earlier $7.60 to $7.90 up to $7.75 to $8 — the latter, officials noted, including the impact of tariffs. – Industrial Distribution

New DOD Office To Lead Zero-Trust Efforts 

The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) is working towards setting up a zero trust (ZT) Portfolio Management Office (PfMO) that will lead to coordinating, synchronizing, and advancing the DoD Enterprise into a ZT cybersecurity architecture, modernizing the department’s ability to prevent malicious actors from exploiting DoD data and resources. In a memorandum for senior Pentagon leadership, defense agency, and DoD field activity directors, Katherine Arrington, performing the duties of DoD Chief Information Officer, also created the role of chief zero trust officer to lead strategy, align efforts, and advise on resource priorities to support department-wide adoption in line with the DoD Zero Trust Strategy.

The ZT PfMO is the overall DoD zero trust lead to coordinate, synchronize, and advance the DoD Enterprise into a zero trust cybersecurity architecture, modernizing the DoD’s ability to prevent malicious actors from exploiting the department’s data and resources. The responsibilities of the Chief Zero Trust Officer include overseeing the development and execution of the DoD’s ZT strategy and planning efforts. The officer will also be responsible for publishing and updating the DoD Zero Trust Strategy, including associated execution plans and roadmaps, as needed. This role also reviews and approves zero trust implementation plans (I-Plans) and roadmaps submitted by DoD Components.

Read more at Industrial Cyber

Uber To Add 20,000 Self-Driving Lucid Gravity Suvs To Its Ride-Share Platform

Lucid Group announced a new collaboration with Uber and autonomous driving technology developer Nuro to deploy a minimum of 20,000 self-driving Lucid Gravity SUVs on Uber’s ride-share platform, according to a July 17 press release.  The luxury electric SUVs will be equipped with Nuro’s “Nuro Driver” autonomous driving system and will be deployed over the next six years in dozens of Uber’s global markets, per the release.  The vehicles will be owned and operated by Uber or by one of its third-party fleet partners. The first of the Lucid Gravity robotaxi deployments is planned for a major U.S. city next year.

As a software-based EV, the electrical and control architecture of the Lucid Gravity make it an ideal vehicle platform to install the Nuro Driver and scale deployment, according to the release. In addition, the Gravity’s 450-mile EPA estimated range means less frequent downtime is needed for charging, which will help Uber to maximize the vehicles’ availability on its platform.

Read more at Automotive Dive

AstraZeneca Plans $50B In US Manufacturing, R&D

AstraZeneca plans to spend $50 billion to expand manufacturing and research capabilities in the U.S. by 2030, it said on Monday, the latest big investment by a pharmaceutical company reacting to President Donald Trump's tariff policy. The investment will fund a new drug manufacturing facility in Virginia and expand research and development (R&D) and cell therapy manufacturing in Maryland, Massachusetts, California, Indiana and Texas, it said in a statement. On Monday, AstraZeneca said the expansion supports its ambition to reach $80 billion in annual revenue by 2030, with half coming from the U.S.

The move to scale up its U.S. footprint is the latest by a drugmaker as Trump threatens to impose import tariffs on the industry and seeks to boost domestic manufacturing. The sector has historically been spared from trade disputes. CEO Pascal Soriot announced the plans in Washington, saying he believes that drug prices need to rise elsewhere and "equalize" with other countries effectively contributing more to research and development costs. "The United States cannot build or carry the cost of R&D for the entire world," he said.

Read more at Manufacturing Dive

Delta Is Just The Beginning: How AI Is Going To Put Dynamic Pricing Into Everything You Buy

By the end of the year, 20 percent of Delta Air Lines‘ fares could be determined by artificial intelligence (AI) as the airline rapidly advances its contentious strategy to eliminate static pricing. Currently, approximately 3 percent of the airline’s flight prices are set by AI through a pilot program that has resulted in “amazingly favorable unit revenues,” according to Delta President Glen Hauenstein, who shared this information with investors. The project harnesses technology from Israeli GenAI pricing startup Fetcherr. At a November investor’s day, Hausenstein compared the AI to “a super analyst… working 24 hours a day, seven days a week and trying to simulate [in] real time, what should the price points be?”

Dynamic pricing is hardly new to the aviation industry. Passengers in adjacent, comparable seats may have paid radically different prices for the same service, based on how far in advance they booked their tickets, if they used a travel agent or comparison website, and their location at the time of booking. Airlines have also experimented with more personalized pricing, tailoring fares based on a traveler’s behaviour, including their browsing history, purchase history, clicks, abandoned carts, and even the browser or device they use. AI enables airlines to systemise and expand differential pricing practices, and consumers could end up suffering, critics warn.

Read more at Business Traveler

The Voices In The Cockpit Fueling Controversy Over Air India Crash

When the preliminary report into the crash of Air India Flight 171 - which killed 260 people in June - was released, many hoped it would bring some measure of closure. Instead, the 15-page report further stoked speculation. For, despite the measured tone of the report, one detail continues to haunt investigators, aviation analysts and the public alike. Seconds after take-off, both fuel-control switches on the 12-year-old Boeing 787 abruptly moved to "cut-off", cutting fuel to the engines and causing total power loss - a step normally done only after landing.

The cockpit voice recording captures one pilot asking the other why he "did the cut-off", to which the person replies that he didn't. The recording doesn't clarify who said what. At the time of take-off, the co-pilot was flying the aircraft while the captain was monitoring. At the heart of the controversy is the brief cockpit recording in the report - the full transcript, expected in the final report, should shed clearer light on what truly happened.

Read more at BBC

Coca-Cola Confirms Plans For New Cane Sugar Soda In US Market After Trump Touts 'REAL Cane Sugar' Coke

Coca-Cola (KO) said drinks with real cane sugar are coming to its US portfolio this fall, but the high fructose corn syrup that is a staple in its current lineup is still here to stay. "It's an 'and,' not an 'or,'" Coca-Cola CFO John Murphy told Yahoo Finance on Tuesday. "[Cane sugar is] another option to offer a consumer here in the United States that's continuously looking for more choice."

The confirmation from Coca-Cola comes less than a week after President Trump took to social media to announce that the company would be using "REAL Cane Sugar" in its drinks in the US. At the time, the company said it appreciated the president's enthusiasm for its drinks.

Read more at Yahoo Finance

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