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Member Briefing July 24, 2025

Date postedJuly 24, 2025
Posted By: Harold King Daily Briefing,

Top Story

June Home Sales Drop As Prices Hit A Record High

U.S. existing home sales fell more than expected in June, suggesting the housing market slump could be deepening as higher mortgage rates and economic uncertainty keep potential buyers on the sidelines. Home sales dropped 2.7% last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.93 million units, the National Association of Realtors said on Wednesday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast home resales would slip to a rate of 4.00 million units. Sales were unchanged on a year-over-year basis in June.

  • The inventory of existing homes in June increased 15.9% to 1.53 million units from a year ago.
  • The median existing home price last month increased 2% from a year earlier to a record high of $435,300.
  • At June's sales pace, it would take 4.7 months to exhaust the current inventory of existing homes, up from 4.0 months a year ago. A four-to-seven-month supply is viewed as a healthy balance between supply and demand.
  • Properties typically stayed on the market for 27 days last month, compared to 22 days a year ago.
  • First-time buyers accounted for 30% of sales, up from 29% a year ago. Economists and realtors say a 40% share is needed for a robust housing market.
  • All-cash sales constituted 29% of transactions, up from 28% a year ago.
  • Distressed sales, including foreclosures, made up 3% of transactions, edging up from 2% a year ago.

Read more at Yahoo Finance

Mortgage Demand Flatlines At Low Levels, As Mortgage Rates Hit 4-Week High

Mortgage rates rose last week to the highest level in four weeks, but mortgage demand didn’t really move. Total mortgage application volume increased 0.8% last week from the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances, $806,500 or less, increased to 6.84% from 6.82%, with points remaining unchanged at 0.62, including the origination fee, for loans with a 20% down payment.

Applications to refinance a home loan, which are most sensitive to weekly rate moves, fell 3% for the week and were 22% higher than the same week one year ago, when interest rates were just 2 basis points lower. While the annual jump may seem large, that’s only because the volume is so very small. Applications for a mortgage to purchase a home rose 3% for the week and were also 22% higher than the same week one year ago.

Read more at CNBC

Wells Fargo: Global Economy Shows “Remarkable Resilience” In first Half of 2025

Global economic trends have shown remarkable resilience during the first half of 2025. With that said, we still believe a global growth slowdown can materialize in H2-2025. Tariff uncertainties have resurfaced to some extent, and new signs that higher tariffs are starting to weigh more noticeably on economic activity are becoming apparent. We expect the global economy to grow below average this year and for a slowdown in global activity to persist next year.

Even as signs of slower growth emerge, there are signs of lingering inflation pressures across many major economies and, in some cases, incipient tariff-related price pressures. We think inflation pressures could limit the room to maneuver for major central banks. A gradual pace of rate cuts should continue, and in select cases, G10 central banks are already at or nearing the end of their monetary easing cycles.

Read more at Wells Fargo


Global Headlines

Middle East

Ukraine

Other Headlines

Policy and Politics

Lawler Skips Bid For Governor, Seeks Reelection To House Instead

GOP Rep. Mike Lawler plans to forgo a bid for New York governor and will mount a reelection bid for his swing House seat instead, he told POLITICO on Wednesday. Lawler’s decision, first reported by The New York Times, will give Rep. Elise Stefanik, a staunch ally to President Donald Trump, a clear path to the Republican nomination next year. "After months of deliberating, I've decided the right thing to do for me and my family and my district is to run for reelection," Lawler told Fox & Friends Wednesday morning. Lawler cited the thin GOP majority in the House as the main motivator for his decision.

Lawler had been one of the high-profile Republicans eyeing the 2026 race. His New York colleague, Rep. Elise Stefanik, has also been open to considering a run. Two recent Siena College polls had Stefanik leading Lawler among GOP voters, the most recent one by 17 points. Lawler represents New York's 17th Congressional District, which is made up of Westchester, Rockland, Putnam and southern Dutchess counties. He was first elected to that post in 2022 and was reelected easily in 2024.

Read more at New York State of Politics

Trump’s AI Action Plan Reflects Manufacturers’ Priorities

President Trump released an “AI Action Plan” today that is designed to cut through regulatory barriers and boost the development and adoption of artificial intelligence—while also helping AI data centers get the electricity they need. Under the proposals, federal agencies are directed to gut any regulations that block the deployment of AI and consider if a state has unfavorable AI regulations when awarding federal funding. That proposal looks to address a patchwork of state AI laws .

The NAM praised the new plan, pointing out that it includes many of manufacturers’ longstanding recommendations. “The White House’s AI Action Plan underscores what manufacturers across the country already know: AI is no longer a future ambition—it is already central to modern manufacturing,” said NAM President and CEO Jay Timmons. “For years, manufacturers have been developing and deploying AI-driven technologies—machine vision, digital twins, robotics and more—to make shop floors safer, strengthen supply chains and drive growth. We’ve been calling for a pro-AI policy environment—one that supports innovation and responsible integration of AI into real-world operations,” Timmons continued. “That means not rushing to impose burdensome laws or regulations when workable rules already exist. It means adopting requirements that are tailored to specific use cases of AI. It also means light-touch regulations that limit compliance costs so small and medium-sized manufacturers aren’t locked out of this technology.”

Read more at the NAM

Lawmakers Call On Hochul For More Child Care Voucher Funding Amid Worsening Shortfall

New York’s child care crisis entered a new and unsettling phase this spring, with first New York City, and then one upstate county after another running short on funds for the state’s Child Care Assistance Program, the primary form of child care subsidy.  The state provided $400 million to address the issue during budget negotiations after it became clear there would be a significant impact, but lawmakers on both sides of the aisle are asking Gov. Kathy Hochul to develop a strategy to avoid that same scenario next year and fill in remaining gaps this year.

The issue was caused by a well-meaning, bipartisan effort to expand eligibility for the program. The state loosened requirements in a push to welcome more families but failed to allocate enough funding to handle the overwhelming increase in applicants resulting in families who have already been approved being denied.  Republican Assemblyman Brian Maher and state Sen. Rob Rolison held an event in the Hudson Valley to urge Hochul and state leaders to act before next year’s legislative session. They argue the $400 million in emergency funds included in the state budget to address the issue were short of what was needed, despite a similarly bipartisan push for more during negotiations. With only $50 million going toward upstate counties, Maher insisted the funding won’t be enough to even reach families who are on waitlists in some areas.

Read more at Spectrum

Political Headlines

Health and Wellness

What Causes Parkinson's Disease? Scientists Uncover An Unexpected New Clue.

More than 10 million people worldwide are living with Parkinson’s disease, a progressive neurodegenerative disorder that leads to symptoms such as tremors, slow movement, limb stiffness, and balance issues. Scientists still don’t know what causes the disease, but it’s thought to develop due to a complex mixture of genetic and environmental factors, and treatment is still quite limited. But new research is putting scientists one step closer to some possible answers.

In a recent study published in JCI Insight, researchers found a common virus, called human pegivirus (HPgV), in the brains of patients who had Parkinson’s disease when they died. Although HPgV infections don’t usually cause symptoms, researchers believe the virus may be playing a role in the development of Parkinson’s.  “The hypothesis is that a long-term, low-burning infection might lead to these sorts of diseases,” such as Parkinson’s disease and other neurodegenerative disorders, says Barbara Hanson, a researcher at Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine, and one of the authors of the paper.

Read more at National Geographic

Industry News

Trade Wars

Detroit Three Automakers Raise Concerns About Japan Trade Deal

A group representing General Motors, Ford and Chrysler-parent Stellantis on Tuesday raised concerns about a trade deal that could cut tariffs on auto imports from Japan to 15% while leaving tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico at 25%. Matt Blunt, who heads the American Automotive Policy Council that represents the Detroit Three automakers, said they were still reviewing the agreement but “any deal that charges a lower tariff for Japanese imports with virtually no U.S. content than the tariff imposed on North American built vehicles with high U.S. content is a bad deal for U.S. industry and U.S. auto workers.”

Trump has threatened to hike tariffs on Mexico to 30% and Canada to 35% on August 1. In May, AAPC criticized Trump’s announced trade deal with Britain, saying it would harm the U.S. auto sector. White House spokesman Kush Desai defended the deal, calling it “a historic win for American automakers by putting an end to Japan’s unfair auto trade barriers for American-made cars.”

Read more at CNBC

Key Earning Reports

IBM’s revenue increased nearly 8% year over year in the quarter, according to a statement. Growth in the first quarter was below 1%. Net income, which includes costs related to acquisitions, rose to $2.19 billion, or $2.31 per share, from $1.83 billion, or $1.96 per share, a year ago. Earnings per share were $2.80 adjusted vs. $2.64 expected and revenue was $16.98 billion vs. $16.59 billion expected. Software revenue climbed about 10% to $7.39 billion, falling short of the $7.43 billion consensus among analysts surveyed by StreetAccount. Hybrid cloud revenue, including Red Hat, showed 16% growth. The software unit’s gross margin of 83.9%  “Clients reprioritized their spend to the hardware,” CEO Arvind Krishna said. Revenue from consulting rose almost 3% to $5.31 billion, higher than StreetAccount’s $5.16 billion consensus. CNBC

Cleveland-Cliffs reported a narrower second-quarter 2025 adjusted loss of $0.50 per share, beating expectations, with revenue of $4.93 billion. Steel shipments reached a record 4.3 million net tons, though the average selling price declined. Cost-cutting efforts, including the idling of six facilities, reduced steel unit costs by $15 per ton. Adjusted EBITDA turned positive at $97 million. The company lowered its 2025 capital expenditure and SG&A guidance and expects further cost improvements in the second half. CEO Lourenco Goncalves emphasized strong domestic steel demand, a healthy order book, and policy support from the Trump administration. Yahoo Finance

Texas Instruments reported second-quarter results on Tuesday that beat analysts’ expectations for revenue and earnings. Earnings per share were $1.41 and revenue was $4.45 billion. Texas Instruments said it expects current-quarter earnings between $1.36 and $1.60 per share. The company forecast revenue of $4.45 billion to $4.8 billion, for a midpoint of $4.625 billion. Analysts were expecting revenue of $4.59 billion. Revenue increased 16% in the second quarter from $3.82 billion in the same period a year earlier. Sales in the company’s analog chip business, its largest, rose 18% to $3.5 billion, surpassing the StreetAccount estimate of $3.39 billion for the segment. Net income rose 15% to $1.3 billion, or $1.41 per share, from $1.13 billion, or $1.22 per share, a year ago. CNBC

Tesla reported $22.5 billion in revenue for the quarter, down 12% compared with the same period last year. Revenue from the company’s automotive business fell 16%. The energy business fell 7%. The electric-vehicle maker also reported adjusted earnings per share of 40 cents, matching analysts’ expectations. Tesla said its declines in revenue and profitability were due to the drop in sales and a reduction in regulatory credits. Tesla reported $439 million in revenue from other automakers that pay Tesla for carbon credits to offset their sale of conventional vehicles, less than half what it reported a year earlier. WSJ

Alphabet had $96.4 billion in revenue and $2.31 earnings per share through Q2, ahead of analyst forecasts of $94 billion and $2.18 EPS, according to FactSet. That accounts for a year-over-year increase of 14% for revenue and a 22% jump for EPS. The company reported $13.6 billion in revenue from its Google Cloud business, a year-over-year increase of 32%, well above expectations of up to 27% growth, and $54.1 billion in search revenue, slightly ahead of projections of up to $54 billion. Forbes

Lower-Income Consumers Remain 'Under Pressure' As Big Food Companies Lean On Value Message

Big food companies like Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, and Domino's Pizza reported quarterly earnings this week and offered a similar slant on how they are messaging to customers feeling the pinch from higher prices: It's all about value. "The overall resilience in the US continues to be impressive, but ... there is a lower-income segment that is under pressure," Coca-Cola CFO John Murphy told Yahoo Finance on Tuesday. "Part of what we continue to be very focused on is to offer even more affordable options, so that we maintain that section of our consumer base."

At Domino's, CEO Russell Weiner said consumers looking for value across categories have prompted the pizza giant to go on offense. In its latest quarter, the company saw share gains across all income cohorts. "The important thing to understand right now is whether it's pizza or burgers or QSRs in general, there is pressure because consumers are looking for value," Weiner said on a call with investors Monday.

Read more at Yahoo Finance

Power Pioneer: Council Member Pratt & Whitney’s Celebrates 100 Years of Aviation

“The principal factor for the necessary dependability [of flying equipment] is the engine. It is toward this goal that the principal efforts of the Pratt & Whitney Aircraft Company will be directed.” Thus wrote 37-year-old company President Frederick Rentschler, setting out the goals for incorporation on July 22, 1925. So began the story of Pratt & Whitney. Propelled by breakthrough designs and the urgency of war, the company grew to 40,000 people by 1945. Pratt pistons would power about 70 different U.S. military aircraft models by the end of World War II. Eager for more, the engine-maker ventured over the next 80 years into bigger pistons and ultimately turbojets, turboprops, turbofans and rockets.

Read all about the innovations and adaptations this remarkable company has undergone during the last 100 years.

Read more at Aviation Week

Neuralink Targets $1 Billion Revenue By 2031, Bloomberg News Reports

Elon Musk's brain implant company Neuralink aims to generate at least $1 billion in annual revenue by 2031, driven by plans to perform 20,000 surgeries per year, Bloomberg News reported on Wednesday, citing investor documents. The company aims to operate five large clinics within six years and offer three versions of its brain device, including Telepathy for communication between the brain and machines, Blindsight for restoring vision, and Deep for treating tremors and Parkinson's disease, according to the report.

The company expects regulatory approval for its Telepathy device by 2029, with plans to perform 2,000 surgeries annually and generate $100 million in revenue, the report said. By 2030, Neuralink anticipates launching Blindsight, expanding surgeries to 10,000 per year and generating over $500 million in revenue.

Read more at Reuters

Tariffs Keep Contractors Guessing On Material Costs

Construction input costs climbed 6% through May on an annualized basis and have remained up more than 40% since February 2020, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. That jump follows several months of policy uncertainty, with tariff announcements rolled out unevenly and implementation timelines in flux. The levies will directly affect key construction components, namely rebar, structural steel, copper and aluminum, said Michael O’Reilly, vice president at Rider Levett Bucknall, a New York City-based construction consultancy firm.

In fact, contractors say tariff hikes have already triggered delays on certain projects. Pittsfield, Massachusetts-based Unistress Corp., for example, recently laid off 233 workers after the postponement of two major contracts due to steel price volatility. The precast manufacturer said the delays caused significant financial pressure, temporarily shrinking its backlog and forcing the company to cut nearly half its workforce.

Read more at Supply Chain Dive

Lockheed to Oversee Two USAF Missile Programs

The U.S. Dept. of Defense awarded a five-year, $999-million contract Lockheed Martin Corp. for “lifecycle support” of two classes of missiles used by the U.S. Air Force – the Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles and the Long-Range Anti-Ship Missiles. The assignment runs through July 2030, and charges Lockheed to oversee all efforts related to the USAF inventories of JASSM and LRASM, including system upgrades, integration, production, sustainment, program management, and logistical support.

The Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile is long-range, precision-guided cruise missile designed to strike high-value targets from a safe distance, so that aircraft crews remain at a safe distance away from enemy air defenses. It's a stealth-capable, subsonic missile that can be launched from various aircraft. The Long Range Anti-Ship Missile is also stealth-enabled and precision-guided, and designed to engage high-threat maritime targets at a ranges exceeding 500 nautical miles. It is a critical weapon for engaging enemy surface ships, and it reduces reliance on intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance platforms, network links, and GPS in electronic warfare environments

Read more at American Machinist

NASA's X-59 'Quiet' Supersonic Jet Rolls Out For Its 1st Test Drive (Video)

NASA's X-59 "quiet" supersonic jet continues to make its way toward the runway. The X-59 was designed from the ground up to fly faster than the speed of sound without generating the thunderous sonic booms typically associated with supersonic flight. The 99-foot (30-meter) aircraft features a radical elongated design, which eliminates a front windscreen; pilots instead see what's ahead through an augmented reality-enabled closed circuit camera system that NASA calls the External Vision System, or XVS.

This month, NASA took the experimental aircraft out for a drive, performing what are known as taxi tests. During these tests, NASA test pilot Nils Larson drove the X-59 across a runway at low speeds so crews could ensure the jet's steering and braking systems work as intended. Next, NASA and Lockheed Martin will perform high-speed taxi tests in which the X-59 will accelerate to close to the speed at which it will take off.

Read more at Space.com

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