Member Briefing March 26, 2026

Posted By: Harold King Daily Briefing,

White House Says Trump Will Meet Xi In China In May

U.S. President Donald Trump will meet Chinese President Xi Jinping in ​May during his first visit to China in eight years, a closely watched trip postponed due to the ongoing Iran war. Trump's effort to ‌reschedule the trip reflected the Republican president's eagerness to project confidence in a challenging Middle East war and simultaneously to manage a tense relationship between the world's biggest economies. Initially slated to travel next week, Trump will now visit Beijing on May 14 and 15, he said in a Truth Social post on Wednesday. Trump added ​that he would host Xi for a reciprocal visit in Washington later this year.

"Our Representatives are finalizing preparations for these Historic ​Visits," Trump said. "I look very much forward to spending time with President Xi in what will be, I ⁠am sure, a Monumental Event." China’s embassy said it had no information to provide on the announcement of the visit. Beijing normally does not ​detail Xi's schedule more than a few days in advance. The long-scheduled trip - and Washington's broader effort to reset relations in the Asia Pacific region - ​have been repeatedly overtaken by events.

Read More at Reuters

Mortgage Demand Drops More Than 10% As Rates Hit The Highest Level Since October

Mortgage rates rose last week to the highest level since last fall, and that pushed mortgage demand off a cliff. Total mortgage application volume dropped 10.5% last week from the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances, $832,750 or less, increased to 6.43% from 6.30%, with points rising to 0.65 from 0.63, including the origination fee, for loans with a 20% down payment.

Refinance demand, which had been surging just a few months ago, dropped 15% for the week. It was still 52% higher than the same week one year ago, when the 30-year fixed rate was 28 basis points higher. The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 49.6% of total applications. For comparison, in mid-January it held a 60% share. Applications for a mortgage to purchase a home dropped 5% for the week and were just 5% higher than the same week one year ago.

Read more at CNBC

Recession Odds Climb On Wall Street As Economy Shows Cracks Beneath The Surface

In recent days, economists have pulled up their risk assessments of a U.S. contraction amid heightened uncertainty over geopolitical risk and a labor market that for the past year has shown strains. Moody’s Analytics’ model has raised its recession outlook for the next 12 months to 48.6%. Goldman Sachs boosted its estimate to 30%. Wilmington Trust has the odds at 45%, while EY Parthenon has it at 40%, with the caveat that “those odds could rapidly rise in the event of a more prolonged or severe Middle East conflict.”

Talk of an economic contraction has accelerated as the war with Iran has dragged on. An oil shock has preceded virtually every recession the U.S. has seen since the Great Depression, save for the Covid pandemic. Prices at the pump have risen by $1.02 a gallon over the past month, an increase of 35%, according to AAA. While economists still debate the pass-through impact from higher energy, the trend has held. “The negative consequences of higher oil prices happen first and fast,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. “If oil prices stay kind of where they are through Memorial Day, certainly through the end of the second quarter, that’ll push us into recession.”

Read more at CNBC

Iran and the Middle East

Ukraine

Other World Headlines

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DHS Reopening Deal On Shaky Ground Amid Bipartisan Backlash

A deal to reopen the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is taking fire from both sides of the aisle after appearing to gain momentum just a day earlier. While Senate Republicans and the White House signaled earlier in the week that President Trump would back the emerging proposal to end the 40-day DHS shutdown, the president told reporters Tuesday he would take a “hard look” at the deal, suggesting he wasn’t sold.

The plan would have Congress fund almost all of the department, with some additional funding for U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) set aside and advanced under a separate reconciliation bill that could pass without Democratic support. But Senate Democrats rejected that proposal, saying it still didn’t make the substantive changes to immigration enforcement they have insisted on for weeks. Democrats aren’t the only ones who pose an obstacle to the deal coming together. Some conservatives expressed skepticism about the viability of the plan given the difficulty of passing a reconciliation bill with only Republican votes in a closely divided Congress.

Read more at The Hill

Internal GOP Poll Shows Blakeman Just 9 Points Behind Hochul

New internal polling from Republican Bruce Blakeman’s campaign shows a tightening race for governor, continuing a trend also seen in public polling. Blakeman’s campaign circulated a polling memo showing he trails Hochul by just 9 points among likely voters, 52%-43%. Politico New York first reported the memo, which was later shared with City & State. The findings put Blakeman, the Nassau County executive and likely GOP nominee for governor, within spitting distance of the margin of victory Hochul won by in 2022 with half a year before Election Day.

The poll also found that Blakeman had relatively low name recognition, with only 6 in 10 likely voters surveyed having heard of both candidates. Among those voters, though, Blakeman led Hochul by 9 points, 53%-44%. “These are ominous results for the Democratic incumbent governor,” the polling memo from Blakeman’s campaign reads. “More important, the results provide a path to victory for Bruce Blakeman. With enough resources Bruce Blakeman can define himself to the electorate and defeat Kathy Hochul in November.

Read more at City & State

Iran War May Further ‘Chill’ An Already Frozen Job Market, Economist Says

The labor market is currently in a frozen state, characterized by low hiring and turnover — and economists said the war in Iran could exacerbate the problem. “It will chill the labor market even more,” Nicholas Bloom, an economics professor at Stanford University, said last week during a Harvard Kennedy School webinar on the war’s economic consequences. If you have a job right now, “don’t leave it,” because things will get harder, Bloom said. Employers are hiring at their lowest rates since 2013, outside of the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, according to the most recent data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, which is through January. Meanwhile, employers are laying off workers at a historically low rate.

“Uncertainty slows hiring as firms don’t want to make an expensive mistake,” Bloom wrote. “It’s costly to hire somebody and if you then discover, say, demand is lower than you expected [it’s] hard to reverse. So when you are uncertain you pause.” Heading into the year, employers had already faced uncertainty around a number of different policies, experts said. Now the war in Iran and its effect on oil prices is adding to the challenge.

Read more at CNBC

More Policy and Politics Headlines

How Gender Gaps in Workplace Mental Health Are Fueling a Multi-Trillion Dollar Productivity Crisis

Employee engagement isn't just a "feel-good" metric. It’s a financial differentiator for leading companies. Gallup has found that managers account for up to 70% of the variance in team engagement, and the stakes couldn't be higher. An estimated $9.6 trillion in productivity could be added to the global economy if the workforce were fully engaged. However, a significant, invisible friction point is holding organizations back: Gender gaps in mental health. Mental health equity emphasizes removing barriers and addressing systemic disparities."  But as our 2026 benchmarking research reveals, men and women are currently navigating two very different, and very costly, versions of the workplace.

  • For women, it's heightened burnout and the cost of care. Women are 17% more likely than men to be currently experiencing burnout. This isn't just a matter of workload; it’s a matter of access. Unpaid caregiving, which is estimated to account for up to 9% of global GDP, disproportionately falls on women. Within Spring Health's research, women were 23% more likely than men to prioritize evening and weekend appointments to balance care and work.
  • For men, it's trust, friction, and deal-breakers. While women were more likely to cite cost of care as a challenge, men were frequently challenged by the system of care. Within Spring Health's research, men were 12% more likely to say mental health benefits are a “deal-breaker” for their job decisions, yet there are certain hurdles they’re more likely to face. Men were 32% more likely to be confused about how to access care and 28% more likely to cite privacy concerns as a barrier to seeking support. Men were 42% more likely to feel held back by manager resistance or discomfort.

Read more at Spring Health

Upcoming Council Programs

Events

Manufacturing Champions Award Breakfast and Workforce Developers Expo - Thursday May 7, 2026 -7:45 - 10:00 AM. West Hills Country Club, Middletown.

Networks

Health & Safety Sub Council Meeting 'Learning from Near Misses', March 24, 2026, 8:30 - 10:30. Ulster BOCES iPark 87, Kingston.

HR Sub Council Meeting Topic TBD, April 23, 2026, 8:30 - 10:30. Location TBD.

Insight Exchange - On Demand Webinars

Training

Certificate in Manufacturing Leadership Program Spring Session, In Person at iPark 87 in Kingston. Supervisor Training Program for Hudson Valley Manufacturers. 7 Courses (8 full day sessions) April 29 - July 15.

Trade Wars

Intel, AMD's CPU Supply Constraints Impacting PC, Server Makers

A worsening supply constraint in central processing units made by Intel and Advanced Micro Devices is impacting PC and server makers who are already affected by the memory chip shortage, Nikkei Asia reported. PC manufacturers like HP and Dell found that a meaningful 'gap' started appearing at the end of February between the volume of CPUs they required and the volume they could get, managers familiar with the matter told the news outlet, adding that the situation is now much worse than a few months ago. Intel and AMD design CPUs based on the X-86 architecture, which accounted for over 85% of processors used in PCs and about 78% of those used in servers as of 2025, the report added.

The supply crunch is already increasing wait times and pushing up prices for CPUs for servers and PCs, said several industry executives and managers. Some of them expect the situation to worsen in the coming months. Quote prices for CPUs have already risen several times this year, leading to an average price increase of between 10% and 15%, and some are even higher than this rate, the report added. Intel and AMD have recently told clients they will raise the prices for all series of CPUs from March and April, respectively, according to the report.

Read more at Seeking Alpha

Arm Expands Compute Platform To Silicon Products In Historic Company First

Semiconductor design firm Arm announced it will begin making its own chips for AI workloads. The move from chip designer to chipmaker represents the most significant shift in the company’s business model in its 35-year history. For over three decades, the British semiconductor firm had one primary business model: it designed chips and then licensed those designs to other companies, including Apple and Qualcomm, which would then make their own semiconductors based on Arm’s designs. Under this business model, Arm essentially made the blueprints that other companies followed to make their own chips. And every time a company made a chip with Arm’s blueprint, Arm earned a licensing fee. That license fee amounted to about 5% per chip made with Arm’s blueprint, according to Bloomberg, meaning that if a chip cost $100, ARM made about $5 from it.

But now Arm has announced that it will no longer be just a chip blueprint company. It will also begin making and selling its own chips directly to customers, and those chips will be designed to run AI workloads. Arm CEO Rene Haas announced Tuesday the pivot in the company’s business model, revealing the Arm AGI CPU. The chip is specifically designed for AI data center customers who need as much processing power as possible to run agentic AI systems. Arm said it developed the chip alongside Meta to optimize its performance with the company’s existing AI infrastructure, and that the AGI CPU will enable “more efficient orchestration in large-scale AI systems.”

Read more at Fast Company

Merck Reaches Nearly $6 Billion Deal for Cancer Biotech Terns

Merck has reached a nearly $6 billion cash deal to buy the cancer biotech Terns Pharmaceuticals TERN 5.27%increase; green up pointing triangle and its promising leukemia treatment. If it proves to work safely, the experimental drug would give Merck a boost as the company prepares for its top-selling drug, Keytruda, to lose patent protection. Under the terms, Merck would pay $53 a share for Terns, Merck said Wednesday. The deal is worth $5.7 billion including the cash that Terns has on hand.

Terns, of Foster City, Calif., has been developing pills to treat cancer, as well as obesity and metabolic-liver diseases. Its crown jewel is a pill to treat a blood cancer known as chronic myeloid leukemia. Last year Terns reported encouraging study results for the medicine. Merck, of Rahway, N.J., is a cancer-drug powerhouse with a market value of more than $285 billion. Its Keytruda immunotherapy, which notched around $31.7 billion in sales last year, is among the world’s top sellers.

Read more at the WSJ

Air Force Going Fast to Develop ‘New Class’ of Low-Cost Munitions

New approaches to acquisition, faster testing, and lessons from combat are shrinking the Air Force’s timelines for fielding low-cost munitions from years to months. T Air Force Brig. Gen. Robert P. Lyons III, portfolio acquisition executive for weapons, touted three examples of what he called a “new class of affordable, low-cost munitions”: the Extended Range Attack Munition, or ERAM, and two variants of the Family of Affordable Mass Munition as he testifies to the Senate Armed Services Committee on March 24. “These cruise missiles represent a new speed of acquisition,” Lyons said: the programs went from conception to first contract in four months, and from contracts to flying prototypes in four to seven months. The ERAM entered production just 14 months after the first contract was awarded.

The ERAM is an air-launched cruise missile designed to strike high-value fixed targets from standoff ranges with precision guidance at low cost. The program was developed in part to supply Ukraine in its war against Russia. The Air Force awarded contracts to produce the ERAM to Zone 5 Technologies and CoAspire in late 2024. The FAMM program first emerged in the Air Force’s fiscal 2026 budget request. Both programs are moving fast thanks to streamlined acquisition processes and accelerated testing, Lyons said. Those two approaches have featured prominently in the Pentagon’s overall strategy to bolster U.S. munitions production lines and its industrial base.

Read more at Air & Space Forces

Meta Targets $9 Trillion Valuation With New Executive Incentive Program

Meta META -1.84%decrease; red down pointing triangle Platforms is seeking to incentivize its top executives to grow the company at an extremely aggressive pace with a new stock option program that could pay some of them hundreds of millions of dollars. Under the program, executives would only realize the full value of their options if the company hits a market capitalization of more than $9 trillion by 2031—an increase of 500% from its current $1.5 trillion, according to the company and new filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

The idea of using outsize financial incentives to ensure leaders’ loyalty in a competitive landscape transformed by AI was at the heart of the pitch made by Tesla’s board of directors to the company’s shareholders last fall. Shareholders ended up approving a pay package for CEO Elon Musk that could be worth as much as $1 trillion over 10 years.

Read more at The WSJ

Sony-Honda Joint Venture Scraps EV Plans After Honda Strategy Overhaul

Sony Honda Mobility, the joint venture between Japanese electronics giant Sony and ⁠automaker Honda on Wednesday said it would stop developing its Afeela electric ​vehicles, citing ​Honda’s strategy reassessment for ​EVs. The move follows Honda’s move to overhaul its EV business for which the carmaker flagged a writedown of as much ⁠as ‌2.5 trillion yen ($15.7 billion) earlier this month. ⁠The JV said the decision left it without a viable path to bring the Afeela models to market. The venture was formed to combine Honda’s experience in engineering and building vehicles with Sony’s software and gaming expertise to catch up with EV rivals.

The JV had been ⁠expected to begin deliveries of the Afeela 1 in California late ‌this year and had sought to ‌launch a second model based on a newer prototype as early as 2028. It began taking orders for the Afeela 1 ⁠last year, with prices starting at $89,900. In a statement, Honda said ⁠the impact from the move on its revised ⁠full-year consolidated financial forecasts for the fiscal year ending this month was expected to be immaterial. Sony ​said it did not ‌expect the discontinuation to have a material impact on its financial situation.

Read more at Ward’s Auto

Audi Confirms Q9 SUV As New Flagship, With US Buyers Firmly In Focus

Audi has finally put a name and intent behind what’s been an open secret for some time: A new range-topping SUV, badged Q9, is on the way — and it’s being developed with the U.S. market very much in mind. Confirmed by CEO Gernot Döllner at the company’s annual media conference, the Q9 will sit above the Q7 as the brand’s largest and most luxurious SUV model. It takes over the role of flagship from the now out-of-production A8 sedan, marking a clear shift in how Audi defines the top end of its lineup.

Audi hasn’t revealed the Q9 yet, but its nameplate and the flagship positioning confirmed by Döllner hint at an SUV noticeably larger than the existing second-generation Q7. Expect a more upright front end with an even more dominant take on the German automaker’s signature single-frame grille, along with a long hood. It’s also a model with broader significance inside its parent company, the Volkswagen Group. The Q9 is being developed together with a future Porsche SUV, codenamed K1, giving it added weight and importance beyond Audi’s own lineup.

Read more at Ward’s Auto

Joby Aviation Showcases The Future Of Urban Air Travel Over San Francisco

Joby Aviation recently flew its electric air taxi over the San Francisco Bay Area, showcasing how future urban air travel might work. The flight passed landmarks like the Golden Gate Bridge and the Marin Headlands, demonstrating that electric air taxis are not just a futuristic idea, but closer to real-world operation. Designed to carry up to four passengers, these aircraft are quiet and produce no direct emissions, offering an alternative to road travel in heavy traffic. With six tilting propellers and fixed wings, the aircraft can take off vertically like a helicopter and then fly forward at speeds near 200 mph (320km/h), much faster than cars in city traffic.

This demonstration marked the start of Joby’s 2026 “Electric Skies Tour,” a series of flights in several U.S. cities intended to introduce people to the technology. The tour builds on extensive testing, with the company logging more than 50,000 miles (around 80,500 km) in test flights, showing that the technology is maturing. “By providing clean, quiet service with minimal infrastructure investment we are making flight an everyday reality for the community,” said JoeBen Bevirt, founder and CEO of Joby.

Read more at Travel Tomorrow

Regional Carrier Finnair to Purchase Embraer Jets for First Time

Brazilian jet builder Embraer S.A. will supply 18 E195-E2s to Finnair under a new agreement with an estimated value of $1.31 billion based on list prices for those narrow-body jets. More than that, the supply agreement also includes purchase options and/or purchase rights for 28 more aircraft, or a total of 46 new E195-E2s, taking the potential value of the new booking to approximately $2.31 billion.

The new aircraft will be the first Embraer models in the majority state-owned carrier’s fleet, which currently is comprised of 54 Airbus A320 and A330 series jets.

The twin-engine E195-E2 is the largest of Embraer’s E-Jet E2 series of regional aircraft, with seating capacity for up to 150 passengers. Finnair’s new jets will be configured for 134 passengers. “The E195-E2’s unique combination of efficiency, comfort, and reliability delivers meaningful value – lower fuel burn, lower CO₂, and superior economics,” stated Embraer president and CEO Arjan Meijer. “We look forward to helping Finnair modernize its short-haul fleet to better match demand, reduce emissions, and unlock growth.”

Read more at American Machinist

Daily Market Update March 25, 2026

The Apr ’26 natural gas contract is trading up $0.01 at $2.95. The May ‘26 crude oil contract is down $1.90 at $90.45.

Read more at NRG

Learn more about the Council of Industry Energy Buying Group

Quote of the Day

“Physical beauty is passing - a transitory possession - but beauty of the mind, richness of the spirit, tenderness of the heart - I have all these things - aren't taken away but grow! Increase with the years!”

Tennessee Williams - American Playwright - spoken by the charactor Blanche DuBois from his play "A Streetcar Named Desire.' Williams was born on this day in 1911.

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