Member Briefing November 12, 2025

Posted By: Harold King Daily Briefing,

NFIB: Small Business Optimism Takes a Step Back, Uncertainty Eases, Labor Quality Concerns Grow

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index declined 0.6 points in October to 98.2 but remained above its 52-year average of 98. The Uncertainty Index fell 12 points from September to 88, the lowest reading of this year. Key Findings Include:

  • A net negative 13% of all owners (seasonally adjusted) reported higher nominal sales in the past three months, down 6 points from September.
  • The frequency of reports of positive profit trends fell 9 points from September to a net negative 25% (seasonally adjusted). This component contributed the greatest to the decline in the Optimism Index.
  • In October, both actual and planned price increases fell from the previous month. The net percent of owners raising average selling prices fell 3 points from September to a net 21% (seasonally adjusted). Looking forward to the next three months, a net 30% (seasonally adjusted) plan to increase prices (down 1 point from September).
  • The net percent of owners expecting better business conditions fell 3 points from September to a net 20% (seasonally adjusted), the lowest level since April but remaining above the historical average of net 4%.
  • Thirty-two percent (seasonally adjusted) of all owners reported job openings they could not fill in the current period. The last time unfilled job openings hit 32% was in December 2020.
  • Twenty-seven percent of small business owners cited labor quality as their single most important problem, up 9 points from September and the highest level since the record high of 29% in November 2021.

Read more at The NFIB

ADP’s Weekly Payrolls Data Show Labor Market Weakening

The U.S. shed an average of 11,250 private-sector jobs a week in the four weeks ended Oct. 25, ADP said. The payroll processor said the data suggested “the labor market struggled to produce jobs consistently during the second half of the month.” ADP started issuing more-frequent readouts on the labor market last month, to complement its longrunning monthly report. They are published with a two-week time lag and are based on a four-week moving average.

The report doesn't cover government workers. It offers a gauge of the labor market at a time when the government shutdown has meant delays in other indicators, meaning economists and investors are increasingly focused on alternative data sources. ADP’s most recent monthly report found U.S. businesses added 42,000 private-sector jobs in October.

Read more at the WSJ

How The Longest Government Shutdown Ever Has Impacted Economic Growth

The impact of the shutdown, which became the longest ever last week, has been felt across the country as federal workers go without pay, airports struggle with staffing issues, and key food benefits to Americans lapse. A recent report from EY Parthenon quantifies the overall impact, with the shutdown having erased almost one month's worth of standard economic growth. "The shutdown has shaved an estimated 0.8 percentage points off quarterly GDP growth -equivalent to roughly $55 billion in lost output," chief economist Gregory Daco said. "Each additional week costs about $7 billion (or 0.1 percentage points (ppt)) in GDP."

Daco added that if the shutdown were to extend for two months, the economic disruptions, particularly those from ending Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits and air travel decreases, could cost the US up to 1.8-2.0 percentage points of GDP growth. Daco acknowledged that if the shutdown ends during the current quarter, as appears likely, some of the economic losses can be recovered as spending resumes and service disruptions decrease. However, that doesn't mean there won't be a lasting impact. "Around 20 percent of the cumulative drag will be permanent, reflecting activity that simply disappears - missed restaurant meals, canceled trips and deferred services that never occur," he added.

Read more at Business Insider

Middle East

Ukraine

Other Headlines

Administration Declares CFPB Funding Illegal

The Trump administration has formally determined the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau’s current funding mechanism is unlawful, a move that puts the agency on track to close in the coming months when its existing cash runs out. The decision, disclosed in a court filing late Monday, marks the administration’s most direct effort yet to dismantle the consumer watchdog and sets up a new front in the ongoing legal battle over its future. The administration said it now considers the CFPB legally barred from seeking additional money from the Federal Reserve, which is the agency’s typical source of funding.

The move would leave the CFPB without money to operate starting next year, even to carry out its required activities, unless Congress passes fresh funding for the agency. That is unlikely, given widespread Republican opposition to the CFPB. A new opinion from the Justice Department’s Office of Legal Counsel, submitted in court, contends that the CFPB cannot draw money from the Federal Reserve currently because the agency is only entitled to the central bank’s surpluses and the Fed has operated at a loss since 2022. The Dodd-Frank Act, which created the CFPB, requires the Fed to transfer from the “combined earnings of the Federal Reserve System” the amount that the CFPB director determines is necessary to operate the agency, with certain limits.

Read more at Politico

Where Do New York's Congressional Leaders Fall On Shutdown Deal?

New York's leaders in Washington are falling about where you would expect when it comes to a pending deal to end the government shutdown.

  • U.S. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer voted against advancing the legislation which would fund the government but take no action on soon-to-expire enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies, instead punting the subsidy conversation with a promise to take up a vote in December.
  • U.S. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand voted "no" and in a statement she tied her decision to a lack of faith that the December vote will ultimately address the subsidy issue.
  • Hudson Valley Republican Rep. Mike Lawler on Monday called it a good deal and criticized Democrats for lacking a coherent plan to actually achieve the outcome they have been pushing for in voting against reopening the government in recent weeks.
  • Rep. Joe Morelle of the Rochester area acknowledged the positive of a reopened government, he expressed concern about the road forward as it relates to health care.
  • Meanwhile, North Country Rep. Elise Stefanik, now a candidate for governor, continued to blame Schumer and Democrats for the shutdown.

Read more at NY State of Politics

Report: College Enrollment On Track To Increase For 3rd Straight Year. Community Colleges Lead the Way

The new Preliminary Fall Enrollment Trends report from the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center found that total enrollment at the nation’s colleges and universities increased 2.0% this fall, powered largely by a 2.4% increase in undergraduate enrollment. Undergraduate enrollment was up across all higher education sectors this fall, but community colleges saw the strongest growth with a 4.0% gain, more than twice the rate of gain for other sectors.

  • At the undergraduate level, shorter programs showed the strongest performance this fall, continuing the trend of recent years. Certificate programs grew 6.6%, compared to a 3.1% increase for associate degree programs and 1.2% growth for bachelor’s programs.
  • Master’s program enrollment, which accounts for roughly two-thirds of graduate enrollment, declined slightly (-0.6%) while doctoral program enrollment was up 1.1%
  • Enrollment increased 1.9% at public 4-year institutions, and it grew 0.9% at private nonprofit 4-year institutions.
  • Enrollment growth was largest at less-selective institutions (3.3%), which outpaced the growth seen at competitive (1.8%), very competitive (1.1%) and highly selective (.7%) schools.
  • Computer and Information Science enrollment saw declines this fall that ranged from -15% for graduate students to -7.7% for undergraduates at 4-year institutions and -5.8% for those at 2-year schools.
  • At 2-year institutions, trade majors, like engineering technologies/technicians and mechanic and repair technologies/technicians, continued to show strong growth, up 8.3% and 10.4%, respectively. Health professions and clinical sciences also enjoyed substantial gains, up 10.1%
  • At 4-year schools, health professions and related clinical sciences (6.2%) and engineering (7.5%) were the majors with the largest growth.

Read more at Forbes

100 days

Advertisement

The Annual Luncheon & Member Expo will be held on Friday, November 21st at the Grandview in Poughkeepsie.

Contact Us to learn more.

Your ad here! Contact Harold King to learn more

Short Walks Or Long Walks For Your Heart Health? Researchers Explore

In a study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine, researchers explored whether short bursts like quick trips around the house or longer, continuous walks are better for health and longevity. The study involved 33,560 adults with an average age of 62 who took 8,000 steps or fewer every day. Researchers tracked participants over an eight-year time span to determine who developed heart disease or succumbed to fatality from any cause. They accounted for factors like smoking, obesity, and high cholesterol. The researchers looked at how people got those steps, either mostly in:

  • Very short bouts of less than 5 minutes
  • Short bouts of 5-10 minutes
  • Moderate bouts of 10-15 minutes
  • Long bouts of over 15 minutes

The study authors concluded that one longer walk a day is more beneficial for your heart than lots of short strolls throughout the day, especially if you don’t get much exercise overall. Walking for 15 minutes or longer yielded the best results and better health outcomes in this study, which amounts to about 1,500 steps in one go. Those who walked in longer stretches of 10-15 minutes or more had the lowest risks of heart issues compared to those who walked in short bouts.

Read more at Yahoo

Upcoming Council Programs

Events

2025 Annual Luncheon - November 21, 2025 -11:00 AM Expo, 12:00 Lunch. The Grandview, Poughkeepsie.

Networks

TODAY! Environment Health & Safety Sub Council Meeting Topic TBD, November 13, 2025, 8:30 - 11:00. MPI, Poughkeepsie.

HR Sub Council Meeting Topic TBD, January 14, 2026, 8:15 - 11:00. Selux Corporation, Highland.

Insight Exchange On Demand Webinars

Webinars and Seminars

Check back soon

Training

TODAY! 1 Seat Left Lean Six Sigma: Yellow Belt - Yellow Belt is an approach to process improvement that merges the complementary concepts and tools from both Six Sigma and Lean approaches. 3 Full days - November 12, 13 & 14 - DCC Fishkill.

Trade Wars

Using Your Credit Card at the Checkout Is Set to Get a Lot More Complicated

A settlement between Visa, Mastercard and U.S. merchants announced this week could usher in a new era of tiered pricing at the register, giving businesses more power to charge fees depending on the credit card you use. The agreement comes after a two-decade antitrust battle over interchange fees, the charges banks collect from merchants every time a customer pays with plastic. The settlement still needs court approval, and is likely to be contested by some merchant groups, which have disagreed over the fees and other terms in the past. A deal last year fell apart after lawyers for some merchants objected.

Merchants, for example could refuse certain types of bank Visa or astercards. There is also likely to be more fees. Some merchants already tack on small fees when customers pay with a credit card instead of cash, but those tend to apply broadly across credit cards. The settlement would go a step further, allowing different surcharges depending on the category the card falls into. A basic, no-frills credit card, for instance, might come with a surcharge of 2.5% of the transaction amount, versus 3% for a rewards card. The settlement would require banks to add clear visual markers to cards to help consumers and merchants determine what category a card falls into, but that could take years to update, analysts said. There will also be a reduction in interchange fees could threaten rewards for consumers.

Read more at the WSJ

CoreWeave Provides Weak Forward Guidance Even As Revenue More Than Doubles

CoreWeave, a provider of infrastructure for artificial intelligence companies, reported better-than-expected third-quarter revenue on Monday, but the company delivered disappointing full-year guidance. Here’s how the company did in comparison with LSEG consensus: Revenue in the quarter soared 134% from $583.9 million a year ago, according to a statement. The company reported a net loss of $110 million, narrowing from about $360 million in the same quarter last year.

CoreWeave’s growth is tied directly to the AI boom, as the company rents out Nvidia graphics processing units and has won business from leading cloud infrastructure providers, including Google and Microsoft. The company’s backlog now stands at $55.6 billion, with 2.9 gigawatts in contracted power, up from 2.2 gigawatts on June 30, according to the statement. CoreWeave now sees 2025 revenue coming in between $5.05 billion and $5.15 billion. CoreWeave’s 2026 capital expenditures should be “well in excess of double” the total for 2025, which will end up between $12 billion and $14 billion, said Nitin Agrawal, the company’s finance chief.

Read more at CNBC

The Gen Z Fashion Trend That's Baffling Apparel Retailers

Gen Z’ers are 13 to 28 years old this year and there are now about 60 million out of the total U.S. population of 343 million. That’s 60 million young people who are right now forming long-term emotional bonds with brands and developing lifelong biases and preferences. Their global spending power is forecast by NielsenIQ to reach $12 trillion by 2030. This wave of consumers is a new challenge for the fashion industry. Labels are discovering that the aspirational look that Millennials favored—fitted silhouettes, minimalistic styling, athleisure, tailored jackets—has no appeal for Gen Z. Where Millennials wanted to belong or blend in, Gen Zers want to stand out. It’s all about self-branding and personalization.

That means micro-trends, like vintage looks that come and go on social media before the fast-fashion machine can catch up. Gender expression is fluid. Boys are dyeing their hair. Girls are wearing oversized blazers and baggy jeans. Bold colors, chunky jewelry, and big, bold eyewear are in. Gen Z’ers are also quite frugal. This holiday season they plan to spend about 25% less than last year, according to a PwC survey, and they expect deals. Gen Z’ers shop often in thrift stores, which have proliferated into a new, potent channel of direct competition. When Z’ers do spend, they want to feel they have gotten more than their money’s worth.

Read more at Forbes

Tyson Warns Of Plummeting Consumer Beef Purchases—As Chicken Sales Soar

Tyson, the largest meat company in the U.S., on Monday reported $13.86 billion in sales for its last fiscal quarter, missing Wall Street's $14.11 billion sales estimate, but posted better adjusted earnings than expected at $1.15 a share (analysts had forecast 84 cents). Chicken sales rose almost 4% over last year, from $4.251 billion to $4.411 billion, the company said. Tyson’s beef business, suffering due to the limited supply of American cattle, lost $94 million last quarter on an adjusted basis and, with domestic production of beef expected to continue falling, Tyson estimates it will have an adjusted operating loss between $400 million and $600 million for its beef business in fiscal 2026.

Tyson sold 8.4% fewer pounds of beef in the quarter as prices were up 17%. The company’s cattle costs rose almost $2 billion from a year ago. The company cited the USDA in estimating domestic production of pork and beef will fall 3% and 2%, respectively, in fiscal 2026, while chicken production is expected to increase 1%. The price of ground beef rose 51% from February of 2020 to September of 2025, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Prices rose roughly 12% from September of 2024 to September 2025.

Read more at Forbes

India's Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) Orders Additional GE Engines For Fighter Jets

India's Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) has announced that it will procure additional F404-IN20 engines from General Electric (GE) Aerospace for its proprietary single-engine Tejas Mk 1A light combat aircraft. Janes understands that a contract was awarded to GE Aerospace on 7 November for 113 new F404-GE-IN20 engines. The acquisition will support HAL's completion of a September 2025 contract from the Indian Ministry of Defence (MoD) to produce 97 additional Tejas Mk 1As for the Indian Air Force (IAF), according to HAL. The contract also includes a ‘support package' that includes spares and modules.

Deliveries of the new engines will start in 2027. The acquisition will continue into 2032, according to HAL. The MoD's recent order of 97 additional Tejas Mk 1As is a follow-on to its January 2021 order of 83 Tejas Mk 1A aircraft (73 single-seat fighters and 10 two-seat trainers) from HAL. HAL has prioritised its production of the first batch of 83 Tejas Mk 1A aircraft. To speed up the completion of the 83 aircraft order, HAL has set up a third production line at its factory in Nashik, in the Indian state of Maharashtra. According to the ministry, the third Tejas Mk 1A production line took two years to be operationalised.

Read more at Janes Defense

ByHeart Recalls All Baby Formula Sold Nationwide As Infant Botulism Outbreak Grows

ByHeart, a manufacturer of organic baby formula, recalled all of its products sold nationwide Tuesday, days after some batches were recalled in an expanding outbreak of infant botulism. At least 15 babies in 12 states have been sickened in the outbreak since August, with more cases pending, according to state and federal health officials. All of the infants were hospitalized after consuming ByHeart formula, officials said. No deaths have been reported. ByHeart officials expanded the voluntary recall from two lots announced Saturday to all products in consumers’ homes and in stores.

That includes ByHeart Whole Nutrition Infant Formula and Anywhere Pack pouches of powdered formula. The company sells about 200,000 cans of infant formula a month online and in stores such as Target, Walmart, Albertsons and Whole Foods, according to Dr. Devon Kuehn, chief medical officer. The FDA is investigating 84 cases of infant botulism detected since August. Of those, 15 consumed ByHeart formula, the agency said in a statement. “This information shows that ByHeart brand formula is disproportionately represented among sick infants in this outbreak, especially given that ByHeart represents an estimated 1% of all infant formula sales in the United States,” the FDA statement said.

Read more at The AP

The U.S.’s Most Ambitious Shipyard Project Just Got Tougher

When Hanwha bought Philly Shipyard for $100 million, the U.S. site was losing money. Today, it is central to South Korea’s $150 billion pledge to help Trump revive American shipbuilding—one of the most ambitious industrial turnaround projects in the U.S. in decades. Hanwha plans to pump $5 billion into the site, hoping to rebuild a shipbuilding workforce and supply ecosystem that has largely shriveled away. America currently makes less than 1% of the world’s ships. China is by far the world’s largest producer, with more than 230 times the shipping capacity and far more merchant ships than the U.S.

Trump’s dream of resuscitating American shipbuilding relies heavily on South Korean help. The joint U.S.-Korean projects so far include repairing U.S. military vessels, helping design Navy supply ships and assisting American firms to expand capacity, train workers and make their production more efficient. Hanwha wants to increase Philly Shipyard’s annual production up to 20 ships a year, expand the workforce by thousands and add new heavy cranes, robotics and training sites. The goal is to bring some of the South Korean approach to Philadelphia, said David Kim, a Texan who moved over from Hanwha’s defense affiliate to become Philly Shipyard’s new chief executive. “We’ve got to change,” he said. “We can’t continue to do things the way we’ve been doing them.”

Read more at The WSJ

Anthropic Is on Track to Turn a Profit Much Faster Than OpenAI

The finances of Silicon Valley’s two largest artificial-intelligence startups show their diverging approaches to the AI boom, with Anthropic on a pace to turn a profit far more quickly than rival OpenAI, according to documents obtained by The Wall Street Journal. Anthropic, which has a growing number of business users because of the capabilities of its Claude chatbot in coding and other arenas, expects to break even for the first time in 2028, the documents show. By contrast, OpenAI forecasts its operating losses that year to swell to about $74 billion—or roughly three-fourths of revenue—thanks to ballooning spending on computing costs. The ChatGPT-maker also expects to burn through roughly 14 times as much cash as Anthropic before turning a profit in 2030.

The financial figures for OpenAI came before the startup signed a string of new computing deals with cloud and chip giants—meaning that it is likely set to spend even more in the coming years. The documents suggest that Anthropic is taking a more cautious approach, with costs growing at a pace more in line with revenue. The company is focused on increasing sales among corporate customers—which account for about 80% of revenue—and is avoiding OpenAI’s costly forays into image and video generation, which require much more computing power. Anthropic’s AI models have also taken off among coders.

Read more at WSJ

Quote of the Day

“It's better to burn out than it is to rust.”

Neil Young - American/Canadian singer songwriter from his song "My My, Hey Hey (Out of the Blue)." He was born on ths day in 1945.

If you’re part of a Council of Industry member company and not yet subscribed, email usIf you’re not a Council member, become one today

Facebook  Instagram  LinkedIn  X  Youtube