Industrial M&A Ramps Up As Tariffs Settle In, Interest Rates Drop And Funds Are Flush

Industrial M&A activity may have gotten off to a bumpy start in 2025, due to tariffs and other factors, but experts say deals in the sector are increasing with significant potential in the years ahead. Private equity firms are sitting on long-held portfolio companies and untapped capital, strategic buyers are looking to appease investors’ growth expectations, aging business owners are looking for exit plans and domestic manufacturing is receiving renewed interest as global supply chains become more complex.

While President Donald Trump had long previewed tariffs, the speed and scope of policy changes initially affected the broader M&A market and gave certain sellers a reason to pause. As the market adjusts to this regulatory shift, experts are also seeing tariffs and the push for federal domestic manufacturing begin to drive certain deal plans. Ellen Clark, a managing director at PMCF who co-leads the firm’s industrials team, said many companies consider acquiring an existing operation in the U.S. to be a less risky and more direct path than building a new plant.

Read more at Manufacturing Dive

Weak End to Q3 for Machine Tool Orders

U.S. machine shops and other manufacturers ordered $493.1 million worth of new capital equipment during September, -7.2% less than during August and yet still 11.0% more than during September 2024. Through nine months of ordering activity, demand for manufacturing technology rose 17.3% higher than comparable figure for 2024, totaling $3.93 billion. The new result represents the highest order total for September since 2022, according to AMT - the Assn. for Manufacturing Technology, a notable indicator as the September 2024 figure includes bookings made during the period covered by the IMTS 2024 event, typically creating a swell in purchasing activity for manufacturing technology.

AMT reported that orders from contract machine shops (aka, “job shops”) fell -1.6% from August, and that buying segment (the largest in the sector) continues to underperform as it has done through much of the current year. The value of job shops’ orders for the current year to-date is up 12% January-September, compared with 17.3%. More positive results come from the automotive sector, whose new orders for manufacturing technology reached their highest level for 2025. Even so, the sector’s September orders represented the third-lowest unit total for the current year. “There has been a general lull in orders from the automotive sector following large investments in new production lines made in 2021 and 2022,” according to AMT. “Through September 2025, orders are up nearly 15% over the first three quarters of 2024, as some OEMs retool production lines away from electric vehicle production.”

Read more at American Machinist

The Fed Is Increasingly Torn Over a December Rate Cut

The path for interest-rate cuts has been clouded by an emerging split within the central bank with little precedent during Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s nearly eight-year tenure. Officials are fractured over which poses the greater threat—persistent inflation or a sluggish labor market—and even a resumption of official economic data may not bridge the differences. The rupture has complicated what looked like a workable plan less than two months ago, though investors think a rate cut at the Fed’s next meeting is still more likely than not.

The split was exacerbated by the government shutdown, which turned off the employment and inflation reports that can help reconcile such disagreements. The data void allowed officials to cite private surveys or anecdotes that reinforced earlier assessments. The dynamic reflected two contingents growing louder and a center with less conviction. Doves worried about labor-market softness but lacked new evidence that would maintain a strong case for cutting. Hawks seized the opportunity to argue for a pause. They pointed to steady consumer spending and signaled concern that businesses were preparing to pass along tariff-related price increases.

Read more at the WSJ

Middle East

• UN Watchdog Hasn’t Been Able To Verify Iran’s Stockpile Of Near-Weapons Grade Uranium In Months – AP
• Israel Opens Key Crossing Into Northern Gaza For Humanitarian Aid – France 24
• Houthi Red Sea Stand Down: ‘Seismic’ Impact On Shipping - Freight Waves
• Gaza Families Still Without Electricity Despite Ceasefire - Reuters
• Trump Sends Letter To Israeli President Asking Him To Pardon Netanyahu – France 24
• Abraham Accords Expand From The Gulf To The Steppe – Nikkei Asia
• US Treasury Issues Iran-Related Missile And Drone Sanctions - Reuters
• France, Palestinian Authority Announce Joint Panel To Draft New Palestine Constitution – France 24
• Interactive Map- Israel’s Operation In Gaza – Institute For The Study Of War
• Map – Conflicts in the Middle East – Live Universal Awareness Map

Ukraine

• Ukrainians Flee Southeastern Front As Fighting Worsens – Reuters
• What the Looming Fall of a Ukrainian City Says About Putin’s War - WSJ
• Ukraine Corruption Scandal Explained: The $100M Plot Rocking Zelenskyy - Politico
• Ukraine’s Justice Minister Suspended Amid $100M Corruption Probe - NBC
• Sanctions Stymie Lukoil Drilling Plans In Romanian Black Sea - Reuters
• Interactive Map: Assessed Control Of Terrain In Ukraine – Institute For The Study Of War
• Map – Tracking Russia’s Invasion Of Ukraine – Live Universal Awareness Map

Other Headlines

• Protesters Force Their Way Into COP30 Summit Venue, Clash With Security – Politico
• UK Economic Growth Disappoints In Q3 As JLR Cyberattack Hits - Reuters
• Catherine Connolly Becomes 10th President Of Ireland - BBC
• Arrival of U.S.’s Largest Warship Ratchets Up Pressure on Venezuela - WSJ
• India Says Delhi Car Blast Was A 'Terrorist Incident' - Reuters
• Le Pen Says She Won’t Run For President If Court Upholds Electoral Ban - Politico
• Chasing The Louvre Loot: Inside Antwerp's Jewelry Underworld - Reuters
• The International Court Of Justice Faces A Looming Crisis Of Authority – The Guardian
• 'Sniper Tourists' Allegedly Killed Civilians For Fun During Bosnian War – France 24

House Passes - Trump Signs - Deal To End Longest US Government Shutdown In History

President Donald Trump on Wednesday signed legislation ending the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, hours after the House of Representatives voted to restart disrupted food assistance, pay hundreds of thousands of federal workers and revive a hobbled air-traffic control system. The Republican-controlled chamber passed the package by a vote of 222-209, with Trump's support largely keeping his party together in the face of vehement opposition from House Democrats. By many economists' estimates, the shutdown was shaving more than a tenth of a percentage point from gross domestic product over each of the roughly six weeks of the outage, although most of that lost output is expected to be recouped in the months ahead.

The shutdown's end offers some hope that services crucial to air travel in particular would have some time to recover with the critical Thanksgiving holiday travel wave just two weeks away. Restoration of food aid to millions of families may also make room in household budgets for spending as the Christmas shopping season moves into high gear. It also means the restoration in coming days of the flow of data on the U.S. economy from key statistical agencies. The absence of data had left investors, policymakers and households largely in the dark about the health of the job market, the trajectory of inflation and the pace of consumer spending and economic growth overall.

Read more at Reuters

Trump Hosts Wall Street CEOs at White House Dinner

President Trump hosted a group of Wall Street executives at the White House on Wednesday. A White House official confirmed Trump was set to dine with business leaders including JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon and Nasdaq CEO Adena Friedman. Other guests include Goldman Sachs executive David Solomon and BlackRock CEO Larry Fink. The gathering underscored Trump's effort to deepen ties with corporate leaders as his administration rolls out new initiatives aimed at strengthening U.S. capital markets and rebuilding critical domestic supply chains seen as vital to national security.

The president’s meeting with Wall Street officials also comes as the White House has faced questions about whether it is doing enough to address affordability concerns among voters after the issue helped propel Democrats to victories in Virginia and New Jersey last week. Trump has in recent weeks met with top business leaders at the White House to discuss his agenda and tout investments from various companies. He had a dinner with tech leaders in early September that included executives from Meta, Google, Microsoft and other companies.

Read more at CBS

What’s In The Bill To Reopen The Federal Government?

Congress is moving quickly to pass a funding package that would end the longest federal shutdown in the nation’s history. The House passed the compromise bill after the Senate approved the package on Monday evening. Here is what is included:

• The bill would provide funding for most federal agencies through January 30.
• The Senate will vote on enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies next month. Notably, the agreement with Republicans does not guarantee that the beefed-up assistance will be extended.
• The legislation also guarantees retroactive pay for the roughly 1.4 million federal workers who were furloughed or worked without pay during the shutdown.
• The legislation would fully fund the food stamp program for the rest of the fiscal year, which ends September 30.
• Concerned about their own security and that of their staffs, lawmakers included $203.5 million in new funding to beef up security measures and protect members of the House and Senate in the package. It also provides funding to support Capitol complex physical security requirements and cybersecurity practices.
• The package provides $115 billion for discretionary Veterans Affairs’ medical care, a bump of more than $2.3 billion from the prior fiscal year.
• The deal includes a section that would require the Justice Department and FBI to notify the Senate when a lawmaker is under investigation and if their personal information is being subpoenaed.

Read more at CNN

• US Flight Cancellations Fall As Air Traffic Control Absences Shrink – Reuters
• Trump Is Said to Propose Opening California Coast to Oil Drilling - NYT
• Republicans Argue Obamacare Rules Inflated Costs, Hurt Coverage Quality – Benefits Pro
• Jeffries, Democrats Will Offer 3-Year Extension Of Obamacare Subsidies – The Hill
• White House Explores Rules That Would Upend Shareholder Voting - WSJ
• US Mint In Philadelphia To Press Final Penny As The 1-Cent Coin Gets Canceled - AP
• Former Aide To Two NY Governors, Accused Of Being Chinese Agent, Goes On Trial For Money Laundering And Fraud - CNN
• Court Allows SUNY New Paltz Student Protest Case Against Law Enforcement To Proceed – Mid-Hudson News
• JFK’s Grandson Jack Schlossberg Announces Bid For Retiring Jerry Nadler US House Seat In New York Currently - AP
• Harvard Says It’s Handing Out Too Many A’s. Students Are Fighting Back. - WSJ

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Loneliness Is Not About Being By Yourself. It's About Feeling Unimportant.

The U.S. Surgeon General recently called loneliness a public health epidemic, comparing its impact on our health to smoking fifteen cigarettes a day. It’s not hyperbole. It’s data. In one CDC survey, nearly a third of adults said they feel lonely at least once a week. Among younger adults, that number rises to almost half. Harvard researchers found that 61 percent of young people and over half of mothers with small children report “serious loneliness.” But what most people miss is that loneliness isn’t really about being by yourself. It’s about being unmet — unseen, unheard, or unimportant to anyone in a meaningful way. You can have a hundred unread texts and still feel like no one’s looking for you.

Loneliness rarely shows up as “I’m lonely.” It hides behind other words: “I’m so tired.” “I feel disconnected.” “I’m busy all the time but empty.” Sometimes it shows up as irritability, workaholism, or the inability to rest. Sometimes it’s a quiet hum of detachment that feels normal until it isn’t.

If loneliness is an epidemic, belonging is the medicine. But belonging isn’t built in a day. It happens in moments — when someone remembers your coffee order, or when you risk being honest and aren’t met with judgment. We need more spaces that make those moments possible. Cities that value proximity. Workplaces that reward being human, not just productive. Friendships that can withstand silence and still feel alive.

Read more at Psychology Today

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Trade Wars

• Tariffs Thaw, Rivalry Simmers: U.S.–China Trade Truce Enters Uneasy Phase – CNBC
• Trump On H-1B Visas: US Lacks Enough ‘Talented People’ – The Hill
• Morgan Stanley Lays Out 3 Scenarios For The US-China Trade War — Business Insider
• GM Wants Parts Makers To Pull Supply Chains From China: Reuters - CNBC
• US Trade Rep Greer Says Supreme Court Tariff Ruling Likely Before End Of The Year - Politico
• 47 Economists Filed An Amicus Brief In Trump's Tariffs Case. What'd They Say? – Marketplace

America’s Chip Restrictions Are Biting in China

Beijing is taking an aggressive approach to help its technology giants squeezed by America’s chip restrictions. Shortages of advanced semiconductors are so acute that the government has begun intervening in how the output of China’s largest contract chip maker, Semiconductor Manufacturing International 981 0.83%increase; green up pointing triangle, is distributed, according to people familiar with the matter. Chinese authorities are trying to give priority to the needs of tech conglomerate and national champion Huawei Technologies, which uses SMIC technology to make artificial-intelligence chips, the people said.

Chinese tech companies are fighting to secure limited domestic capacity and, in some cases, labs are smuggling coveted supplies of high-performance Nvidia NVDA -2.96%decrease; red down pointing triangle chips. The lengths to which Chinese companies and Beijing are going in the face of recent U.S. export restrictions are a sign of the stakes in the race for AI supremacy. Top U.S. officials are divided on whether to continue limiting China’s access to chips and semiconductor manufacturing equipment, or allow more sales. Their goal is to prevent chips made by Huawei from becoming more advanced and in demand around the world. The White House’s decision has ramifications at home—for companies such as Nvidia—and abroad.

Read more at the WSJ

Anthropic To Spend $50 Billion On U.S. AI Infrastructure, Starting With Texas, New York Data Centers

Anthropic announced plans Wednesday to spend $50 billion on U.S. artificial intelligence infrastructure buildout, starting with custom data centers in Texas and New York. The facilities, which will be designed to support the company’s rapid enterprise growth and its long-term research agenda, will be developed in partnership with Fluidstack. Fluidstack is an AI cloud platform that supplies large-scale graphics processing unit (GPU) clusters to clients like Meta, Midjourney, and Mistral. Additional sites are expected to follow, with the first locations going live in 2026. The project is expected to create 800 permanent jobs and more than 2,000 construction roles.

The investment positions Anthropic as a major domestic player in physical AI infrastructure at a moment when policymakers are increasingly focused on U.S.-based compute capacity and technological sovereignty. In parallel, Amazon has opened a dedicated data center campus for Anthropic on 1,200 acres in Indiana. The $11 billion facility is already up and running, while many competitors are still promising data centers of the future. Anthropic has also expanded its compute deal with Google by tens of billions of dollars.

Read more at CNBC

AMD CEO Predicts $1 Trillion Data Center Market

AMD CEO Lisa Su said revenue could grow 35% annually over the next five years, as Su anticipates a “new era of growth” for the chipmaker while positioning itself in what she said could become a $1 trillion market. Su said during AMD’s financial analyst day event in New York on Tuesday that the market for the company’s data center chips could rise to $1 trillion by 2030, largely driven by “insatiable” demand for AI chips, and that AMD could achieve a “double-digit” share in the data center market over the next three to five years.

AMD has targeted a piece of the AI market dominated by Nvidia. The company has joined a spending spree that has emerged amid growing demand for AI infrastructure, which includes the multibillion-dollar deal to supply Oracle with AMD’s next-generation AI chips starting in 2026, with plans to expand the partnership in 2027 and beyond. That partnership followed another similar deal announced with OpenAI, which said it would acquire and deploy 6 gigawatts of AMD’s AI chips, as the ChatGPT maker takes an estimated 10% in AMD. AMD projected a partnership with OpenAI could deliver tens of billions of dollars in revenue.

Read more at Forbes

Union Recommends “Yes” Vote on Latest Boeing Offer to Striking Defense Workers

Striking Boeing Defense workers are scheduled to vote Thursday, November 13, on a new contract offer, having reject four previous proposals since August 4. In this case, the International Association of Machinists union is recommending a “yes” vote by the estimated 3,200 strikers, though as recently as November 8 the IAM had maintained its contentious tone in the long-running dispute over compensation, benefits, and replacement workers. The strike affects two plants in Missouri and one in Illinois, where Boeing Defense assembles the F-15 and F/A-18 fighter aircraft and several missile and defense systems.

The current offer from Boeing reduces the total amount of the ratification bonus it has previously put forth, but it includes more payments upon approval of the contract. It continues to offer a 24% wage increase over five years, now with a $6,000 signing bonus (twice the amount offered in the last proposal), but it eliminates a subsequent $4,000 in later contract bonuses that had been included in the previous offer. According to Boeing, under the new contract workers’ average annual base pay will rise from $75,000 to $109,000. The new contract provides more vacation time and sick leave. And, significantly, Boeing has assured the union workers that none of them would be replaced if the deal is ratified.

Read more at American Machinist

Volvo Eyes Potential For Growing US Vehicle Production

Volvo Cars’ CEO said he views boosting production in the U.S. as positive growth potential for the company while it moves forward with its turnaround plan. Delivering the automaker’s Q3 financials, Håkan Samuelsson, Volvo’s chief executive, pointed to the expansion plans for its plant in Ridgeville, South Carolina. The facility currently builds the flagship all-electric EX90 together with Volvo’s Geely-owned sibling marque’s Polestar 3. Samuelsson said during its earnings call that Volvo will add production of its global best-seller, the XC60 midsize SUV, to the assembly line in a move to exploit vehicle sales growth in the region.

“In America we have also strengthened our presence industrially and we have a new team leading the Americas with a new approach to marketing which I think looks very promising for growth in that region,” said Samuelsson. The company had previously announced that the Ridgeville plant near Charleston would get a next-generation plug-in hybrid model before 2030 to bolster its position in the U.S. market.

Read more at Wards Auto

Toyota's $13.9 Billion Battery Plant Opens In North Carolina

Toyota Motor Corp.'s $13.9 billion battery plant in North Carolina began production Tuesday. The opening comes less than four years after a 2022 groundbreaking at the site and marks a significant milestone for the Japanese auto giant. The plant in Liberty, North Carolina, about 60 miles west of Raleigh, is the company's first and only battery plant outside of Japan. The 1,850-acre site, according to Toyota, will be able to produce 30 gigawatt-hours annually at full capacity and support 5,100 new jobs. The facility will house 14 battery production lines supporting gas-powered hybrid (HEV), full battery-electric (BEV) and plug-in hybrid models (PHEV). Additional lines will launch by 2030.

The plant opening also underscores the company's commitment to a future business model that relies more heavily on battery electric vehicles, even as the Trump administration cuts federal support for such a transition. Toyota, which has a massive gas-electric hybrid portfolio, has purposefully lagged behind other U.S. competitors on BEVs but still has long-term sights set on electrification.

Read more at The Detroit News

Toyota Pledges to Invest Up to $10 Billion in Its US Operations

Toyota Motor Corp. confirmed it will plow as much as $10 billion into the US over the next five years to boost its local operations, less than a month after President Donald Trump flagged the Japanese carmaker planned such an investment. The announcement clears up a confusing moment from Trump’s visit to Tokyo last month, when he said Toyota would build plants all over the US “to the tune of over $10 billion.” At the time, the automaker wouldn’t confirm such a plan, calling it mere “speculation.”

In a statement marking the start of production at its new battery plant in North Carolina on Wednesday, the automaker provided no further detail, saying only it will spend the funds “to support future mobility efforts.” Toyota promised in 2017 to invest $13 billion in US manufacturing. The company said earlier this year that it had spent those funds and that its total investment in the US currently exceeds $50 billion — spread over nearly seven decades. The Japanese company imported about half of the vehicles it sold in the US last year, mostly from Canada and Mexico but also including some 281,000 vehicles made in Japan.

Read more at The Financial Post

Air Cargo Rates Fall As Top Trade Lanes See ‘Subdued’ Peak Season

The air cargo market is swinging further in favor of shippers as carriers prepare for softening demand, according to a Nov. 6 report from Xeneta. In October, global air cargo spot rates dropped for the sixth consecutive month, marking a 3% year-over-year decline to $2.58 per kilogram, per Xeneta. Seasonal contract rates fell even faster in the month, dropping 8% YoY to $2.31 per kilogram.

While prices dropped, October air cargo volumes grew 4% YoY. However, that wasn’t enough to outpace a 5% increase in supply, and peak season growth momentum continued to be “subdued” in the top three global trade lanes, according to the report. Meanwhile, China-to-U.S. e-commerce shipments declined for the fifth consecutive month in September, with volume falling 34% year over year, per Xeneta. The de minimis exemption was a key driver of shipping activity on that lane.

Read more at Supply Chain Dive

Quote of the Day

“There are two things that men should never weary of, goodness and humility; we get none too much of them in this rough world among cold, proud people.”

Robert Louis Stevenson -Scottish Writer from his Novel 'Kidnapped.' He was born on this day in 1850.

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