Member Briefing November 18, 2025

Posted By: Harold King Daily Briefing,

Empire State Manufacturing Survey – Activity Increased at a “Solid Rate”

Business activity increased at a solid pace in New York State in November, according to firms responding to the Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index rose eight points to 18.7, its fourth positive reading in the last five months.

  • The new orders index rose twelve points to 15.9 and the shipments index increased two points to 16.8, pointing to significant gains in both orders and shipments.
  • The inventories index rose eight points to 6.7. The delivery times index edged up to 7.7, and the supply availability index ticked down to -11.5, continuing the trend of somewhat longer delivery times and worsening supply availability.
  • The prices paid index dropped three points to 49.0, and the prices received index also dipped three points to 24.0.
  • The index for number of employees ticked up to 6.6, while the average workweek index rose to a multi-year high of 7.7, suggesting a modest increase in employment levels and hours worked.
  • While firms still expect conditions to improve in the months ahead, the index for future general business conditions declined to 19.1, down eleven points from its recent high in October.
  • Capital spending plans grew, with the capital expenditures index rising fourteen points to 11.5.

Read more at the NY Fed

November Marks Another Month Of Cautious Optimism For U.S. Manufacturers

Following last month’s 24 percent improvement in current business sentiment among manufacturers, another month of cautious positivity has arrived. Trade negotiations driven by the Trump administration in recent weeks—especially with China on the issues of fentanyl precursors and rare earth metals—along with increased business development seem to have worked to maintain a positive manufacturing business forecast into the new year. According to Chief Executive’s latest CEO Confidence Index Survey, fielded over the first week of November, manufacturing CEOs rate current business conditions a 5.5 out of 10, on a scale where 1 is Poor and 10 is Excellent.

November marks yet another month of surging optimism when it comes to forecasts for the year ahead, with substantial increases across all key indicators:

  • 59 percent of manufacturers expect to increase their profits in the year ahead, up 11 percent since last month.
  • 67 percent expect to increase their revenues, up 8 percent since last month.
  • 46 percent of respondents expect to deploy more capital next year, up 14 percent since October.
  • 46 percent expect to add to their headcount over the next year, up 29 percent since last month; this follows on the back of a 38 percent increase between September and October, suggesting strong positive momentum when it comes to hiring.

Read more at Chief Executive

U.S. Foreclosure Rates Spike 32% From Last Year—Here’s Why

Foreclosure rates for U.S.-based properties in October rose by nearly a third from last year and 2% from the month before, as homebuyers wrestle to keep up with the rising costs of goods and services. Mortgages and lenders repossessed 3,872 U.S. properties in October, a 32% increase from the same period last year, data from property data firm ATTOM shows. Homebuyers began the foreclosure process on 25,129 properties during the month, up 6% from the previous month in an eighth-straight monthly increase.

The median home sale price in October was $440,387, according to data from housing market tracker Redfin. That number was up 1.4% compared to the same period last year. The average down payment on a home in 2025 was 19%, according to a report released by the National Association of Realtors in November, although this average was considerably lower at 10% for first-time home buyers. The national average 30 year fixed rate mortgage rate is at 6.24% and down 0.23 points year over year.

Read more at the Budget Lab at Yale

Middle East

Ukraine

Other Headlines

More Than $5B In Frozen SBA Loans Begin To Thaw As Government Reopens

The impact of the record-long shutdown has still left its mark, notably for businesses seeking federally-backed loans. For each business day that passed during the shutdown, an estimated 320 businesses nationwide were unable to access $170 million in commercial loans, according to the Small Business Administration. That translated to roughly $5.3 billion in agency-backed loans that were inaccessible to some 10,000 small businesses during the 43-day shutdown, including manufacturers, retailers, health care providers and others seeking capital for investments, payroll and more.

The shutdown also prevented the SBA from processing loans for a new program for small manufacturing businesses as they face tariff uncertainty, supply chain disruptions and increased costs. The Manufacturers’ Access to Revolving Credit program launched Oct. 1, providing borrowers a maximum revolving credit limit of $5 million and a higher guarantee percentage than other lines of credit offered by the agency. Roughly 98% of manufacturers are considered small businesses, according to SBA. Revolving lines of credit are the most “cost-effective and efficient way” to provide working capital to borrowers, the spokesperson said.

Read more at Manufacturing Dive

City & State Interviews Gov. Hochul: She’s Gearing Up For Reelection and Is Ready To ‘Fight Like Hell’

After establishing herself as governor of one of the nation’s most populous states, and as a solid leader of New York’s Democratic Party, Hochul’s bona fides will be tested like never before as she navigates new political currents. New York City just elected a fresh-faced democratic socialist as its mayor, representing a wide ideological gap with the self-proclaimed capitalist and centrist governor. At the same time, Hochul is dealing with unprecedented federal cuts. Hochul has navigated the turbulence well – or at least publicly better than some other Democratic governors who have seen the National Guard deployed within their borders. The coming year’s fiscal needs would already be cause enough for concern, but the addition of Mamdani to the mix adds new weight to the careful balancing act Hochul has attempted to maintain.

Add her own reelection into the equation on top of finding middle ground between splintering factions of her big-tent party, and Hochul is in for a doozy of a 2026. But as she likes to say, Buffalonians “fight like hell,” and she’s ready to bring that energy to facing the various obstacles in her path. She sat down with City & State to discuss lessons she intends to take with her in the years to come, her plans for navigating the upcoming political minefield and why Democrats should stop criticizing each other. This interview has been edited for length and clarity.

Read more at City & State

FAA Ends Shutdown-Era Flight Limits As Controller Staffing Rebounds

The Federal Aviation Administration has ended all restrictions on commercial flights at 40 major U.S. airports that had been imposed as a result of air traffic control safety concerns amid the longest government shutdown in history. In a news release on Nov. 16, the FAA said its flight-reduction emergency order would be lifted at 6 a.m. ET on Nov. 17, and normal operations could resume across the National Airspace System. The agency also removed restrictions on space launches and general aviation flights at 12 airports.

The FAA noted that its safety team recommended rescinding the order after reviewing safety trends and the "steady decline of staffing-trigger events in air traffic control facilities." Some 13,000 air traffic controllers were forced to work without pay for more than a month, overstretching already overworked and understaffed air traffic controllers. Federal authorities reported an uptick in air traffic controller absences, with many calling out due to stress and financial pressure, since the shutdown started on Oct. 1.

Read more at USA Today

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State Health Officials Urge Residents To Get Vaccinated As Flu, COVID Rates Rise In New York

According to New York State Health Commissioner Dr. James McDonald, COVID-19 cases are on the rise in New York. He says for every person in the hospital with flu, three people are hospitalized with COVID-19, and this year's vaccine rates are 30% behind last year. "Less and less people are getting the COVID vaccine," McDonald said. "It's the best protection I have for you. My friends, what concerns me deeply is that I have 20 million New Yorkers I go to bed worrying about every night and I wake up every morning trying to find ideas to improve your health. When I look at the data, I need folks to just go to the pharmacy, go to the doctor, do what I did, get your COVID vaccine."

According Erie County health officials, last year’s flu season saw an estimated 47 million illnesses, 610,000 hospitalizations and 26,000 deaths, including a record 216 pediatric deaths nationwide. “Being sick with the flu means feeling miserable for up to a week – missing school, missing work, and missing out on your favorite activities, and even longer to fully recover,” explained Dr. Burstein. “When making the choice to get a flu vaccine, remember that one dose will reduce the risk of serious illness or even a hospital stay for you or a family member.”

Read more at New York State of Politics

Upcoming Council Programs

Events

SOLD OUT! 2025 Annual Luncheon - November 21, 2025 -11:00 AM Expo, 12:00 Lunch. The Grandview, Poughkeepsie.

Networks

HR Sub Council Meeting Topic TBD, January 14, 2026, 8:15 - 11:00. Selux Corporation, Highland.

Insight Exchange On Demand Webinars

Webinars and Seminars

Check back soon

Training

Certificate in Manufacturing Leadership Program Winter Session, Virtual. Supervisor Training Program for Hudson Valley Manufacturers. 7 Courses (15 half day sessions) January 6 - March 11 Via Zoom.

Lean Six Sigma Green Belt This program combines online coursework, with live Zoom sessions, to deliver a flexible and effective learning experience in Lean Six Sigma methodologies. Most Mondays March 2 - June 8 Via Zoom.

(Special Info session for those who are 'Green Belt curious' February 23rd)

Trade Wars

Pratt & Whitney Awarded $1B for Engine Parts

Pratt & Whitney, a division of RTX was awarded an estimated $1.09-billion contract to supply consumable and depot level repairable parts to the U.S. Air Force for the F100 engine – an afterburning turbofan engine powering the F-15 Eagle and F-16, and some other fighter aircraft. The F-15 is a twin-engine fighter developed by McDonnell-Douglas and now supplied by Boeing Defense. The five-year base contract awarded by the U.S. Air Force will be completed in September 2030, and it will have one five-year option period, according to the Pentagon.

There are four variants of the F100, introduced at different times to support different generations of the fighter. The most recent version incorporates “advanced thermal coatings, improved turbine cooling capabilities, and prognostics and engine health monitoring features”. There are more than 7,000 of the engines in service with USAF and other defense forces, according to Pratt & Whitney. In accordance with the extreme heat and high pressure conditions of the engines’ operation, F100 hot section components are built from durable materials and include advanced cooling technologies.

Read more at American Machinist

Dubai Airshow Stands Out for Airliner Orders and Military Surprises

The Gulf, where blockbuster commercial aviation demand converges with rising regional military spending, is arguably the prime location for a major aerospace and defense event. With the UAE consistently demonstrating its willingness to handle international relations in its own unique way, the Dubai Airshow this week is poised to make its mark as the industry closes 2025. Spending by airlines, airports, and other civil aviation service providers in the Middle East is projected to exceed $28 billion this year, on track to surpass $35 billion by 2030. Last week, the IBA consultancy predicted that more than 300 new commercial aircraft orders and commitments would be announced during the show. Based on very approximate average pricing, this business could add around $60 billion to the year-end tally.

Geopolitics are apparent in the profile of military aircraft on show in Dubai this week. Alongside somewhat predictable appearances by aircraft such as the Airbus A400M transporter, Dassault’s Rafale warplane, and Eurofighter’s Typhoon, there are several items unlikely to be found elsewhere on the international air show circuit. The Sukhoi S-57 fighter will certainly turn heads, given that Russia’s industry remains persona non grata at the Paris and Farnborough shows while President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine heads for its fourth anniversary. A Russian presence in Dubai stands in marked contrast to the show organizers’ decision to uninvite Israeli exhibitors in the wake of Israel’s attack on Qatar’s capital, Doha.

Read more at CNBC

Ford Partners With Amazon For Dealers To Sell Used Vehicles Online

Ford Motor is partnering with Amazon to let the automaker’s franchised dealers sell certified preowned vehicles through the online retail giant.The new program will allow customers to secure financing, start paperwork and schedule a pickup time for the vehicles at participating Ford dealers, the companies announced Monday. Some steps, such as a final signature, may still need to be completed in person, Ford said. The deal comes two years after Amazon said it would allow auto dealers to sell cars through its site, starting with vehicles from South Korean automaker Hyundai.

The deals between Amazon and the two automakers differ, though, as Hyundai’s involves new vehicles rather than certified preowned. CPO vehicles are used but have been inspected, refurbished and certified by the manufacturer or dealer. They’re considered a better quality of used vehicles than cars without the designation and have warranties, like a new vehicle. Amazon earlier this year also partnered with car rental company Hertz to sell used vehicles through its site.

Read more at CNBC

Novo Nordisk Cuts Direct-To-Consumer Prices For Wegovy, Ozempic To $349 A Month

Novo Nordisk on Monday said it has cut the direct-to-consumer prices of its blockbuster weight loss drug Wegovy and diabetes counterpart Ozempic, adding to efforts by the company and the Trump administration to make the treatments more accessible. The Danish drugmaker is lowering the price of the drugs for existing cash-paying patients to $349 per month from $499 per month. But Novo Nordisk said the cash-pay cost of the highest dose of Ozempic will remain $499 per month.

Also on Monday, Novo Nordisk launched a temporary introductory offer, which will allow new cash-paying patients to access the two lowest doses of Wegovy and Ozempic for $199 per month for the first two months of treatment. After that period, people move to the new standard monthly direct-to-consumer price. The company’s introductory offer ends on March 31. Novo Nordisk’s new cash-pay offers are available through Wegovy.com or Ozempic.com, the company’s direct-to-consumer pharmacy, NovoCare, and other participating organizations and telehealth providers that work directly with the drugmaker, including Costco , GoodRx, WeightWatchers, Ro, LifeMD and eMed.

Read more at CNBC

Audi Will Build a Luxury Off-Roader on Scout's New Platform

According to a new report from the German Automobile News publication Automobilwoche, Audi is planning to develop a large off-roader targeted at American buyers. The new model will be positioned as a rival to other luxury off-roaders such as the Land Rover Defender and will likely be closely related to Scout's offerings. The as-yet unconfirmed Audi will have a plug-in hybrid powertrain similar to the optional setup in Scout's debut models. The system relies on electric motors for propulsion and uses a combustion engine as a range extender.

As with the new Scouts, the Audi will be body-on-frame, which the company thinks will help appeal to American consumers. Audi plans to work with its fellow Volkswagen Group subsidiary Scout to build the model in the United States. At the moment, Audi doesn't build any cars in the U.S., but reportedly the new Audi will be built at Scout's production facility in Blythewood, South Carolina. While the plant is still under construction, the report notes that production of the new model is expected to begin by the end of 2027.

Read more at Car and Driver

The Drewry World Container Index (WCI) Continued Decline in Shipping Rates

The Drewry World Container Index (WCI) decreased 5% to $1,859 per 40ft container, marking the first weekly decrease after four weeks of continuous increases. Spot rates on the Transpacific Headhaul saw a double-digit decrease this week, with rates from Shanghai to New York falling 15% to $3,254 per 40ft container and rates to Los Angeles dropping 12% to $2,328. With retailers having already imported their holiday season merchandise, Drewry anticipates rates will either soften slightly or hold steady next month.

Spot rates from Shanghai to Genoa increased 4% to $2,193 per 40ft container and from Shanghai to Rotterdam they rose 3% to $2,028. Carriers on the Asia–Europe trade route are trying to push spot rates up by introducing higher FAK rates ranging from $3,000 to $3,650 per 40ft box, effective 15 November, in an attempt to elevate spot rates before the start of the new annual contract negotiation season. Drewry’s Container Forecaster expects the supply-demand balance to weaken in the next few quarters, particularly if normal Suez Canal transits resume.

Read more at Drewry

Joby Flies Its Hybrid Turbine Electric Demonstrator Aircraft

Joby Aviation Inc. announced the first flight of its turbine electric, autonomous VTOL aircraft. The demonstrator builds on Joby’s fully electric air taxi platform and integrates a hybrid turbine powertrain along with the company’s SuperPilot autonomy stack to deliver greater range and payload capability. Potential applications for Joby’s hybrid aircraft include longer range air taxi services as well as sales to civilian, commercial, and defense customers.

The start of flight testing comes just three months after Joby announced the aircraft concept alongside a new partnership with L3Harris Technologies, who bring proven expertise on platform missionization, including sensors, effectors, communication, and collaborative autonomy. L3Harris plans to equip Joby’s commercial hybrid aircraft to address defense applications, such as contested logistics, loyal wingman operations, and low-altitude support. The U.S. government has prioritized the acquisition of resilient, autonomous and hybrid aircraft, requesting over $9 billion in the FY26 budget for next-generation platforms.

Read more at Aerospace Manfuacturing

The ‘Rolls-Royce Of Turkey’ Is Coming To America

After two decades of breeding what the Times of London once called the “Rolls-Royce of turkey,” Paul Kelly wanted to learn from experts with generations of knowledge in America, where turkey farming originated. But once the Briton arrived in 2003, and after spending several weeks visiting turkey farms across Virginia, West Virginia, North Carolina, Massachusetts and Pennsylvania, Kelly was “amazed” to find no farmer or butchery maintained the American traditions, including dry-plucking and hanging, that have set the Essex, England-based KellyBronze apart.

Then again, when a frozen American Butterball costs about a $1 a pound and you’re asking customers to pay around $15 a pound—or nearly $500 for a 32-lb. turkey—high quality has to come with more than a high price. Kelly, 62, is now the owner of the only USDA-approved turkey plant in the U.S. that dry-plucks and hangs its birds, which many believe creates crispier skin and better flavor. KellyBronze, which sells its turkeys at Eataly and other high-end retailers across America, had 2024 revenue of $28 million. About 4% of that comes from the U.S., but Kelly expects that to be 25% within three years as he increases production in Virginia—and he is aiming for annual revenue will hit $80 million by 2028.

Read more at Forbes

Quote of the Day

“I feel safe in the midst of my enemies, for the truth is all powerful and will prevail.”

Sojourner Truth - (Born Isabella Baumfree) American Abolitionist and Women's Rights Advocate. A Hudson Valley resident, She was born on this day in 1797.

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