NY Fed: Service Sector Activity Declined ‘Significantly’ In November

Business activity continued to decline significantly in the region’s service sector in November, according to firms responding to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Business Leaders Survey. The survey’s headline business activity index was little changed at -21.7.

• The business climate index held steady at -42.2, suggesting the business climate remained worse than normal.
• The employment index fell three points to -8.6, its third consecutive negative reading and a multiyear low, suggesting employment continued to decline.
• The wages index held steady at 25.4, indicating that wage growth remained modest.
• The prices paid index moved down five points to 61.9, and the prices received index dropped six points to 20.1, its lowest level since January, pointing to a slowing in both input and selling price increases.
• The supply availability index remained negative at -11.1, indicating that supply availability continued to worsen.
• The index for future business activity remained slightly negative at -4.6, suggesting firms continued to be somewhat pessimistic about the outlook.
• Firms expect little employment growth in the months ahead, and capital spending plans remained soft.

Read more at The New York Fed

Labor Department Fills in Some Missing Jobless-Claims Data

As the federal statistics system lurches back to life after the government shutdown, a one-off data point has popped into view on the Labor Department’s website: a figure showing that 232,000 Americans filed new unemployment claims in the week through Oct. 18. The number is broadly in line with weekly levels seen over the past 12 months, a reassuring sign that at least through the middle of last month, there was no large surge in layoffs. At 4.3% through August, unemployment had remained modest before the shutdown, but a significant slowdown in job creation has fueled fears that the labor market is cooling.

The first post-shutdown monthly jobs report, due Thursday, will bring delayed September data on job creation and the unemployment rate. It wasn’t clear why the Labor Department updated its website to show claims from mid-October, but not data before or since. The data update showed that continuing unemployment claims, a measure of the size of the unemployed population, were 1.96 million in mid-October. That is on the high end of recent levels, but below the early August figure.

Read more at the WSJ

As Data Flow Revives, Fed Still Faces A Deep Policy Divide

A divided U.S. Federal Reserve begins receiving updated economic reports from the now-reopened federal government this week as policymakers hope for clarity in their debate over whether to cut interest rates when they meet in just over three weeks. It remains unclear how much of the shutdown-delayed data on employment, inflation, retail spending, economic growth, and other aspects of the economy will be in hand by then. But the lines of debate have been sharply drawn, and minutes of the Fed's October meeting to be released on today could provide more detail on the split that has emerged over whether the risk of higher inflation remains pronounced enough to delay rate cuts for now, or whether slowing job growth and looser monetary policy should take priority.

"I am not worried about inflation accelerating or inflation expectations rising significantly," Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Monday. "My focus is on the labor market, and after months of weakening, it is unlikely that the September jobs report later this week or any other data in the next few weeks would change my view that another cut is in order" when the Fed meets on December 9-10. Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson meanwhile said the central bank should go "slowly" given the benchmark interest rate, in the 3.75%-to-4.00% range, is likely nearing the level where it will no longer discourage economic activity and put downward pressure on inflation.

Read more at Reuters

Middle East

• In Major Breakthrough, U.N. Security Council Adopts U.S. Peace Plan for Gaza – NYT
• What Does The UN-Backed Gaza Plan Entail? - France 24
• The US Plan For Gaza Won UN Backing. Carrying It Out Could Be Far More Difficult - AP
• After UN Vote, Netanyahu Calls For Hamas' Expulsion From The Region - Reuters
• Iran Nuclear Sites Left Ruined In US And Israeli Strikes But Program ‘Intact,’ Deputy Foreign Minister Says - CNN
• Who Are The Armed Groups Contesting Hamas's Authority In Gaza? – France 24
• Netanyahu Vows Crackdown On Israeli Violence After Attacks On Palestinian Villages - Reuters
• Interactive Map- Israel’s Operation In Gaza – Institute For The Study Of War
• Map – Conflicts in the Middle East – Live Universal Awareness Map

Ukraine

• Russian Lawmakers Approve Tax Hike Bill To Boost Economy As The War With Ukraine Nears 4 Years – AP
• Trump Sends Pentagon Officials to Ukraine in Effort to Restart Peace Talks - WSJ
• Ukraine Needs More Drones And Better Tactics, Senior Commander Says - Reuters
• Polish Rail Track Sabotaged By Ukrainians Working For Russia, Tusk Says - Politico
• Ukraine’s High-Flying Air Power Plans Face Turbulence - Politico
• Russia Downs Four Drones Headed For Moscow, Airports Closed For A Time - Reuters
• Senate To Move On Trump-Backed Russia Sanctions, Graham Says - Politico
• Interactive Map: Assessed Control Of Terrain In Ukraine – Institute For The Study Of War
• Map – Tracking Russia’s Invasion Of Ukraine – Live Universal Awareness Map

Other Headlines

• China Strides Into US-Sized Gap At Climate Talks - Politico
• Trump and Saudi Crown Prince Begin Visit Packed With Deals –WSJ
• Soccer Superstar Ronaldo To Join Saudi Crown Prince During A White House Visit - AP
• Japan Warns Citizens In China About Safety As Diplomatic Crisis Deepens - Reuters
• Macron Unhappy With Some Budget Concessions But ‘Compromise Is Indispensable’ - Politico
• The ‘JPMorgan Boys’ Behind the U.S. Bailout for Argentina - WSJ
• Venezuela's Maduro 'Ready To Talk' As US Ramps Up Pressure - BBC
• Europe Aimed to Set Standards for Tech Rules, Now It Wants to Roll Them Back – WSJ

Siena Poll: Hochul Job Approval Slips But Maintains Large Lead Over Stefanik In Potential Gubernatorial Matchup

New York Gov. Kathy Hochul’s job approval and favorability ratings are both down from last month while maintaining a 20-point lead in a potential race for governor over Republican U.S. Rep. Elise Stefanik. According to the poll, Hochul has a 43-45% favorability rating, down from 45-42% in September, while her job approval rating stands at 52-43%, down from 54-40%. Stefanik has a 28-36% favorability rating, up from 21-34% in September. The poll found the incumbent governor leads the North Country congresswoman 52-32%. Hochul also leads her current sole Democratic challenger, Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado, 56-16%, the poll found. Other findings:

• When it comes to the president, Trump has a 35-61% favorability rating in New York, virtually unchanged from September.
• Sen. Chuck Schumer now has his worst-ever favorability rating, 32-55%, in 21 years of the Siena poll.
• Voters are strongly for increasing taxes on the wealthiest five percent of New Yorkers, 60-32%, and large corporations based in the state, 60-30%. Each is overwhelmingly supported by Democrats, strongly supported by independents, and opposed by Republicans, although Republicans only oppose taxing the top five percent 51-40% and oppose taxing big corporations 50-34%. 
• By a relatively close 45-33%, voters favor the state approving the construction of a new underwater gas pipeline off New York City after hearing what both supporters and opponents of the pipeline say. Republicans support it 60-22%, as do independents, 46-28%. Democrats narrowly oppose the pipeline, 41-37%.
• Currently, 39% of voters think New York is on the right track, while 45% say the state is headed in the wrong direction, down from 42-41% in September. Similarly, only 30% say the country is on the right track, compared to 62% wrong direction, down from 33-59% in September.

Read more at Siena University

Education Department Announces Plan To Move Programs To Other Federal Agencies As Part Of Effort To Shut Down

The Department of Education on Tuesday announced plans to further dismantle itself and move certain responsibilities to other parts of the federal government, moves that align with President Trump’s stated goal to eliminate the department entirely. While some programs are assigned to the Education Department by federal law, the Trump administration is looking to sidestep the requirement to get approval from Congress to move the initiatives with six interagency agreements. Instead of completely forgoing the department’s responsibilities, the administration has made contracts with other federal agencies to take over certain aspects of specific programs. 

• Two of those agreements are with the Department of Labor to take over the Office of Elementary and Secondary Education and postsecondary education programs. Another two deals are with the Health and Human Services Department to co-manage programs for child care access for parents enrolled in college and medical accreditation of foreign schools. 
• The Department of Interior has agreed to take over some of the responsibilities for the Indian Education Program, and the State Department agreed to co-manage international education and foreign language studies programs. 

“These partnerships really mark a major step forward in improving management of select programs and leveraging these partner agencies, administrative expertise, their experience, working with relevant stakeholders, and streamline the bureaucracy that has accumulated here at ED over the decades,” a senior department official said. 

Read more at City & State

Defense Contractors Fight Back Against NDAA Right To Repair Language

U.S. defense contractors have launched a lobbying and public relations blitz to defeat a provision in the Senate-passed NDAA that would set strict new rules for how the Pentagon accesses their intellectual property. The issue is among the last unresolved matters facing House and Senate negotiators who aim to reconcile before December the House and Senate fiscal 2026 NDAAs. The Senate’s so-called right-to-repair provision states that the Pentagon may not, with certain exceptions, enter into a contract unless the deal requires the company to provide the government with the data needed to operate and sustain the equipment.

Supporters of the Senate’s right to repair provision say it’s a way to ensure the armed services can maintain their weapons at reasonable cost. The White House and top Defense Department leaders have endorsed the principle of ensuring the U.S. military has what it needs to repair its weapons, though some of them acknowledge that devilish details have yet to be set. In an April memo, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth ordered the Army to include right-to-repair provisions in new contracts and modifications to existing deals “where intellectual property constraints limit the Army’s ability to conduct maintenance and access the appropriate maintenance tools, software, and technical data, while preserving the intellectual capital of American industry.”

Read more at Roll Call

• Federal Judges Block New Texas Congressional Map – Politico
• Trump Administration Takes Further Steps To Dismantle Department Of Education - CNBC
• House Votes 427-1 To Release Epstein File- The Hill
• Senate Unanimously Approves Bill To Force Release Of Epstein Files – The Hill
• Bipartisan Bill Would Require Employers To Report AI-Related Layoffs – Supply Chain Dive
• Judge Rules Meta Doesn't Have A Social Media Monopoly - Politico
• Trump Tells Congress Don’t ‘Waste’ Time on Obamacare Credits – Yahoo Finance
• Judge Rejects FTC Suit Over Meta's Instagram, WhatsApp Buys – Law360
• Trump Refutes US Intelligence That Saudi Prince Was Likely Aware Of 2018 Killing Of Jamal Khashoggi - AP
• Federal Judge Dismisses DOJ Lawsuit Over New York Immigration Court Law – NY State Of Politics
• Trump Says His Administration Has Started Interviews For Next Fed Chair - Reuters
• Trump: ‘People Are Holding Me Back’ From Firing Jerome Powell - Politico

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8 Trajectories For Long COVID

Millions of patients have developed long COVID, a chronic condition that involves a range of symptoms, including fatigue, brain fog, dizziness, and palpitations, that persist for at least three months after infection. In a new analysis of adult participants in an initiative called Researching COVID to Enhance Recovery, or RECOVER, Mass General Brigham researchers identified eight different trajectories that long COVID can take, depending on severity, duration, and whether symptoms improve or worsen. Their findings are published in Nature Communications.

Overall, 10.3 percent of patients had long COVID symptoms three months after infection, and 81 percent of these patients continued to experience persistent or intermittent symptoms a year later. Female patients and those who had been hospitalized with an acute infection were likelier to develop persistently severe long COVID symptoms. The researchers identified eight different long COVID trajectories. Some of these trajectories included persistently severe symptoms, intermittently severe symptoms, gradually improving symptoms, gradually worsening symptoms, and mild symptoms that only appeared after 15 months.

Read more at The Harvard Gazette

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Trade Wars

• Will Trump’s Trade War Break America’s Addiction to Cheap Stuff? – WSJ
• China Makes Biggest Purchase of US Soybeans in Two Years – Yahoo Finance
• US Lands Framework Trade Deals With Switzerland, 5 Other Trading Partners – Supply Chain Dive
• India's US Exports Jump Despite 50% Tariffs As Trade Tensions Ease - BBC

D.C.'s Next Generation Of Metro Trains To Be Built Nearby

Starting in 2028, DC Metro’s 8000 series rail cars will be assembled at a new $100 million Hitachi factory in Hagerstown, MD. WMATA has ordered 256 of them—part of a $2.2 billion contract stipulating that Hitachi has to make the trains here. Hitachi recently hosted a ribbon-cutting ceremony for the plant, offering a first look at the 307,000-square-foot facility. Inside, the space is an imposing expanse of concrete that’s crisscrossed with railroad tracks, allowing the cars-in-progress to roll along their assembly lines and, when complete, out a giant door in the side of the building. The factory can produce about 20 cars a month, with humans and robot arms working in a carefully orchestrated dance.

In the new factory, the process will also integrate technologies like Spot, a robotic yellow “dog” made by Boston Dynamics that can inspect and photograph trains for safety issues at night while workers are at home. The ribbon-cutting was rather theatrical—a pair of huge curtains dropped amid billows from a fog machine, revealing a prototype of the new brown-and-­silver Metro car that will be made in the factory. The cars will be built with some seats facing toward the center aisle, and there will be more space for bikes, strollers, and wheelchairs. Larger digital information screens are another upgrade. And pairs of cars will have open gangways so riders can walk between them.

Read more at The Washingtonian

Dubai Airshow: Boeing Lands $38B Widebody Jet Order

Boeing has logged a massive new order for widebody aircraft from Emirates involving 65 new 777X jets with a reported value of $38 billion. At that amount it will be equal to Boeing’s highest-value booking this year, matching a May order from Qatar Airways. The 777X is a twin-engine, long-range aircraft that is a modernized version of the current 777, offering improved fuel efficiency while also incorporating the more spacious passenger cabin achieved with Boeing’s 787 Dreamliner.

Dubai-based Emirates specializes in high-volume international service, and the new order is its third for the forthcoming Boeing 777X, bringing its total commitment to that aircraft series to 270 aircraft, with an overall value estimated at $146 billion. However, the delivery dates for the new aircraft remains unknown, as the new aircraft remains in Boeing’s development pipeline. Boeing currently projects the 777X to make a commercial debut in 2027. As the twin-engine 777X will be powered by the GE Aerospace GE9x high-bypass turbofan engines, Emirates also committed to acquire 130 more of those power units. It’s total take from GE Aerospace for the 777X jets will be 540 engines.

Read more at American Machinist

Cloudflare Says Outage That Hit X, Chatgpt And Other Sites Is Resolved

Internet infrastructure company Cloudflare was hit by an outage on Tuesday, knocking several major websites offline for global users. Many sites came back online within a few hours. In an update to its status page around 9:57 a.m. ET, Cloudflare said it had implemented a fix to resolve the outage, though it noted some users may still experience issues accessing its online dashboard. “We are continuing to monitor for errors to ensure all services are back to normal,” the company added. The issue comes less than a month after Amazon  Web Services suffered a daylong disruption that took down numerous online services, followed by a global outage of Microsoft’s Azure cloud and 365 services.

A Cloudflare spokesperson said the “root cause” of the outage was an automatically generated configuration file used to manage threat traffic that “grew beyond an expected size of entries,” which triggered a crash in the software system that handles traffic for several of its services. The company said it began to observe a “spike in unusual traffic” around 5:20 a.m. ET. There’s no evidence that the outage was a result of an attack or caused by malicious activity, the spokesperson added.

Read more at CNBC

Home Depot Cuts Earnings Outlook As Home Improvement Demand Falls Short Of Expectations

Home Depot on Tuesday cut its full-year profit forecast and missed Wall Street’s earnings expectations for the third straight quarter as it saw weaker home improvement demand, tepid consumer spending and lower-than-usual storm activity. The retailer said it now expects full-year sales will climb about 3% and comparable sales, which take out the impact of one-time factors like store openings and calendar differences, to be slightly positive. That compares with its previous expectations for full-year sales to grow by 2.8% and comparable sales to increase by 1%.

For Home Depot, housing turnover typically sparks larger and more lucrative projects as customers fix up their homes before or after moving. Those big projects, however, have dropped in frequency as higher interest rates have led to steeper mortgage rates and borrowing costs for loans, which a homeowner may use to pay for a kitchen remodel or major addition. Chief Financial Officer Richard McPhail said other factors may also be having a chilling effect, including the prolonged government shutdown, an uptick in corporate layoff announcements and a decline in home values in some markets.

Read more at CNBC

Nvidia, Microsoft Pour $15 Billion Into Anthropic for New AI Alliance

Three of the biggest companies in artificial intelligence announced a partnership featuring tens of billions of dollars in spending, adding to an investment spree that is aimed at supercharging AI model development. Under the partnership, Nvidia NVDA  and Microsoft MSFT will invest up to $15 billion in Anthropic, a competitor to OpenAI whose models are popular with coders and businesses. Anthropic, in turn, said it would buy $30 billion of compute capacity from Microsoft Azure and use advanced AI chips supplied by Nvidia, which will help with design and engineering.

The alliance is the latest sign in the global AI race that the biggest players must work with one another despite potential business rivalries and policy disagreements. Microsoft is a big investor in Anthropic rival OpenAI and offers its models to customers, while Nvidia Chief Executive Jensen Huang and Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei have clashed over chip exports and the number of jobs lost to AI. The companies don’t want to lose out to competitors who are also plowing money into data centers for training models and offering new products.

Read more at the WSJ

Intuit Will Pay OpenAI $100 Million In Deal Combining TurboTax And ChatGPT

Tax software provider Intuit on Tuesday announced it would pay OpenAI more than $100 million annually to integrate its financial apps with ChatGPT, marking the latest deal in recent months to combine widely used applications with the chatbot. Intuit’s multiyear partnership with OpenAI allows the ChatGPT maker’s models to power AI agents across Intuit’s platforms, including TurboTax, Credit Karma and Mailchimp, which will each be accessible through ChatGPT, the companies said in a statement.

ChatGPT users will be able to ask questions and complete tasks like estimating tax refunds, reviewing credit options, or managing business finances, the companies said, and Intuit’s apps will be able to access financial data to generate responses and complete tasks like sending marketing messages. The deal also covers Intuit’s use of ChatGPT Enterprise, which Intuit said is used to support employee workflows.

Read more at Forbes

Toyota To Spend $912 Million Across 5 U.S. Plants To Boost Hybrid Production

Toyota Motor on Tuesday announced plans to invest $912 million in U.S. manufacturing plants in five Southern states as part of a previously announced plan for the company to invest up to $10 billion domestically by 2030. The investments announced Tuesday are broadly meant to support increasing production of hybrid vehicles, which Toyota leads with a more than 51% market share through the third quarter of this year, according to Motor Intelligence data. Most of the investments are expected to be completed by 2027.

The largest investment announced Tuesday is $453 million in Toyota’s Buffalo, West Virginia, plant to increase assembly of four-cylinder hybrid-compatible engines. Other investments include $204.4 million in a plant in Georgetown, Kentucky, for four-cylinder hybrid-compatible engines and $125 million to expand Corolla production in Blue Springs, Mississippi, to include hybrid models.

Read more at Automotive News

Honda Unveils Next-Gen Electrification Tech, New Hybrid Vehicle Platform

Honda Motor Co. unveiled its next-generation hybrid-electric (HEV) vehicle technologies at the company’s “Honda Automotive Technology Workshop” media event in Japan on Oct. 29. Among the announcements was a new mid-size platform for Honda’s future hybrid vehicles; a new V6 engine for full-size hybrid vehicles; and technologies for a production model of the “Super-ONE” Prototype compact electric vehicle that was unveiled at the Japan Mobility Show 2025.

As other automakers revise their EV rollout timelines due to sluggish sales, low margins and high development costs, Honda announced in May that it’s also reassessing its EV strategy and roadmap. But its global CEO, Toshihiro Mibe, said he believes that HEVs will play a key role in the company’s long-term transition towards full electrification, especially in the North American market. The automaker aims to sell 2.2 million HEVs a year by 2030.

Read more at Wards Auto

Quote of the Day

“When you were made a leader you weren't given a crown, you were given the responsibility to bring out the best in others.”

Jack Welch - American Busienssman and former CEO of GE who was born on this day in 1935.

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