Member Briefing November 20, 2025

Posted By: Harold King Daily Briefing,

U.S. Factory Orders Rebound In Line With Estimates In August Led by Transportation

New orders for American-made goods posted a modest increase during August after two straight monthly declines, according to U.S. Census Bureau figures released Nov. 19.  Data showed that total orders for U.S. factory goods improved 1.4% month-to-month during August, in line with economists’ expectations. Orders fell 1.3% in July and sank 4.8% in June.  Year-over-year, August orders rose 3.3%. The Bureau report was initially due on Oct. 2 but was significantly delayed by the 43-day U.S. government shutdown.

New orders for U.S. durable goods increased 2.9% during August following a 2.8% slide in July. Transportation equipment led the gain with a 7.9% rise after two consecutive decreases. New orders for nondurable goods dipped 0.1% in August. Shipments fell 0.1% after three straight increases (+0.3% in July). Petroleum and coal drove the decrease with a 1.1% slide after two consecutive monthly increases. Inventories ticked up 0.1% for a third straight gain (+0.1% in July), also led by petroleum and coal’s 0.3% August rise.

Read more at Nasdaq

US Trade Deficit Narrows Sharply In August In Boost To Third-Quarter GDP

The U.S. trade deficit fell by nearly 24% in August as President Donald Trump’s sweeping global tariffs pushed imports lower. In a report delayed for more than seven weeks by the federal government shutdown, the Commerce Department said Wednesday that the gap fell to $59.6 billion in August, from $78.2 billion in July. Imports of goods and services dropped 5% to $340.4 billion in August from July when U.S. companies were stocking up on foreign products before Trump finalized taxes on products from almost every country on earth. Those levies went into effect Aug. 7. The goods trade deficit narrowed 17.5% to $85.6 billion.

  • Exports edged up 0.1% to $280.8 billion, reflecting services.
  • Exports of services increased $0.8 billion to $101.8 billion, boosted by travel, maintenance and repair services as well as charges for the use of intellectual property.
  • Goods exports dropped 0.3% to $179.0 billion, with shipments of consumer products sliding $1.5 billion amid a $1.2 billion decline in pharmaceutical preparations.
  • Exports of industrial supplies and materials, which also include crude oil, eased $0.6 billion. They were pulled down by a $1.1 billion decline in nonmonetary gold.
  • Crude oil exports rose $0.8 billion.
  • Exports of motor vehicles, parts and engines decreased $0.4 billion.
  • Shipments of capital goods increased $2.4 billion to a record $62.4 billion boosted by computers.
  • The goods trade deficit with China widened slightly in August. The deficit with Canada decreased as imports fell to the lowest since May 2021. There was a reduction in the surplus with the United Kingdom.

Read more at Reuters

BofA Report: Most Small Businesses Planning Price Hikes As Inflation Escalates

Almost two-thirds of small and mid-size business owners say they plan to increase prices next year as nearly all wrangle with inflation hitting their operations, a Bank of America report finds, yet many owners still expect higher revenue and plan to expand in the year ahead. Bank of America reported Tuesday that 88% of small and mid-size business owners say inflation is hitting their operations, prompting 64% to plan price hikes and 39% to curb spending next year.

The survey of more than a thousand small and medium-sized businesses found that 75% are facing supply chain strain. Among those affected by supply chain issues, 52% are raising prices and 32% reported difficulty sourcing products and services. Still, the report notes that 74% of small and mid-sized business owners expect revenue growth and nearly 60% plan to expand their business. The study accounted for business owners in the US with annual revenue between $100,000 and $50 million.

Read more at Forbes

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Trump Administration Plans to Defund MEPs Next Year, Ignoring Congress’ Allocation

President Donald Trump is once again planning to defund Manufacturing Extension Partnerships. After drawing swift, bipartisan opposition to that plan in April, he backed down. But since then, the administration has failed to send checks to organizations for 2025 and is warning that all MEPs will be defunded in 2026. The 50 Manufacturing Extension Partnerships, or MEPs, are nonprofit organizations that provide business development and support to small- and medium-sized manufacturers across the country. Some have cut staff and are not hiring for open positions as they wait for their payments, said Carrie Hines, president of the American Small Manufacturers Coalition, the trade association for MEPs.

An Oct. 10 letter from Craig Burkhardt, deputy director and acting director of the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), stated that the agency has decided to end the federal Manufacturing Extension Partnership “As part of President Trump’s efforts to streamline and reduce the cost and size of the Federal Government and in accordance with the priorities to ‘secure its position as the unrivaled world leader in critical and emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence, quantum information science,’ NIST is reprioritizing its funding and staff to support efforts in research and programs targeting emerging technology priorities,” the April 1 letter stated. “As such, the funding of MEP centers is no longer in alignment with advancing the priorities of NIST.”

Read more at IndustryWeek

Fed’s October Rate Decision Fueled Pushback Over Possible December Cut

Divisions over whether the Federal Reserve should cut interest rates next month deepened at officials’ October meeting, leaving a growing contingent—and potentially a narrow majority—of policymakers uncomfortable with a December rate reduction. “Participants expressed strongly differing views about what policy decision would most likely be appropriate at the committee’s December meeting,” according to a written record of the meeting released Wednesday afternoon with the customary three-week lag.

The minutes showed a committee as divided as any has been in years over what to do at its next gathering. The tersely written account said that “many” officials thought a rate cut wouldn’t be warranted in December—a group that outnumbered the “several” that thought a reduction “could well be appropriate.” The minutes underscore how the December meeting could feature at least three dissents no matter which way the Fed goes—three governors appointed by President Trump could oppose holding rates steady, and at least three Fed presidents could oppose a cut.

Read more at The WSJ

Community Colleges Lead Third Consecutive Year of SUNY Enrollment Increases

Enrollment across the State University of New York campus system has increased for the third consecutive year, Gov. Kathy Hochul's office announced Tuesday. This is the first segment of gains three years in a row since 2007-2009. The fall 2022 to fall 2023 year was the first enrollment increase in 10 years. In addition, the state saw a 5% enrollment increase at SUNY community colleges and 4.7% increase for transfer students. "More students are choosing to pursue an excellent and affordable education at the SUNY institution of their dreams," SUNY Chancellor John B. King said in a statement.

"With the success of SUNY Reconnect and the continued rise in community college enrollment, more New Yorkers are taking advantage of the chance to earn a world-class, affordable degree in fields that lead to good-paying, high-demand jobs and a brighter future,” Hochul said in a statement. SUNY Reconnect is a program that offers adults ages of 25 to 55 who haven’t earned a college degree a chance to pursue a tuition-free associate’s degree, with books and supplies covered. It was launched this fall with more than 5,600 New Yorkers enrolled, saving, on average, approximately $2,000 per year.

Read more at NY State of Politics

Can GLP-1 Drugs Treat Alzheimer’s? Novo Nordisk Will Soon Announce Key Results

Within the next two weeks, Novo Nordisk is expected to announce the results of perhaps the most ambitious studies yet of its blockbuster GLP-1 drug semaglutide — whether the medicine can help slow the progression of Alzheimer’s disease. The Danish company has repeatedly stressed that these are risky studies, since there hasn’t yet been definitive proof that this class of drugs, which has transformed the treatment of obesity and diabetes, can also help patients with the devastating neurological disease.

According to the company, it is conducting two large-scale global trials, EVOKE and EVOKE+, involving more than 3,600 patients across 30 countries, all in the early stages of Alzheimer’s disease. The results, expected by late 2025, could mark a turning point in the fight against Alzheimer’s and redefine how metabolic health connects to brain health. According to Novo, semaglutide’s potential advantage lies in its multi-targeted action. Instead of chasing one mechanism, it might tackle several at once, calming inflammation, improving vascular health, balancing insulin, and protecting neurons. Even modest results could be revolutionary. Preliminary results are expected by the end of the year.

Read more at STAT (tiered Subscription) 

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Trade Wars

Nvidia Profits Soar, Countering Investor Jitters on AI Boom

Nvidia, the world’s most-valuable publicly-listed company, reported record sales and strong guidance Wednesday, helping soothe jitters about an artificial intelligence bubble that have been reverberating in markets for the last week. Sales in the October quarter hit a record $57 billion as demand for the company’s advanced AI data center chips continued to surge, up 62% from the year-earlier quarter and exceeding consensus estimates from analysts polled by FactSet. The company increased its guidance for the current quarter, estimating that sales will reach $65 billion – analysts had predicted revenue of $62.1 billion for the quarter. Earnings per share were $1.30 adjusted vs. $1.25 estimated and revenue was $57.01 billion vs. $54.92 billion estimated. Nvidia said it expects about $65 billion in sales in the current quarter, versus $61.66 billion expected by analysts.

Nvidia said it had $51.2 billion in data center sales, easily surpassing analyst expectations for $49.09 billion in sales during the quarter, a 66% rise on a year-over-year basis. Of that, $43 billion in revenue was for “compute,” or the company’s GPUs. Networking, or parts that allow scores of GPUs to work as one computer, accounted for $8.2 billion in data center sales.

Read more at The WSJ

Mortgage Rates Hit Highest Level In A Month, Pushing Loan Demand Down 5%

Mortgage rates rose for the third consecutive week, causing demand from both current homeowners and potential homebuyers to drop. Total mortgage application volume fell 5.2% last week compared with the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances, $806,500 or less, increased last week to 6.37% from 6.34%, with points remaining unchanged at 0.62, including the origination fee, for loans with a 20% down payment. That is the highest level in four weeks.

Applications to refinance a home loan, which are most sensitive to short-term moves in rates, fell 7% for the week but were still 125% higher than the same week one year ago. Last year at this time, mortgage rates were about a half a percentage point higher, and refinance volume was unusually low. Applications for a mortgage to purchase a home fell 2% for the week and were 26% higher than the same week one year ago.

Read more at CNBC

Third Quarter Retail Results a Mixed (Shopping) Bag

Target posted a drop in quarterly sales and lowered its full-year profit guidance on Wednesday as the big-box retailer saw choppy spending and shoppers hunting for value. Despite its ongoing struggles, Target stuck by its sales guidance for the all-important holiday season, saying it expects sales to decline by a low single-digit percentage in the fourth quarter. It said it expects adjusted earnings per share for the year to come in between $7 and $8, lowering the high end of its previous range of $7 to $9. Much of its new range would come in lower than last year, when adjusted earnings per share were $8.86. - CNBC

The TJX Companies, Inc. revised earnings guidance up for the full year Fiscal 2026. For the full year fiscal 2026, the company is now expecting its consolidated comparable sales to be up 4%. The Company is increasing its pretax profit margin outlook to 11.6%, up 0.1 percentage point versus the prior year’s 11.5%. The company is also raising its diluted earnings per share outlook to be in the range of $4.63 to $4.66, which would represent a 9% increase over the prior year. CNBC

Lowe’s on Wednesday posted a year-over-year sales increase for the quarter, but the company lowered its full-year profit outlook slightly to reflect a tougher economic backdrop. The home improvement retailer now expects full-year total sales to be $86 billion, up from its previous expectations of $84.5 to $85.5 billion, because of a recent acquisition. However, it said it expects comparable sales, an industry metric that takes out one-time factors, to be flat compared to a year ago compared with the prior range it had shared of flat to up 1%. For the full year, it now expects adjusted earnings per share of approximately $12.25, on the lower side of its previous range of $12.20 to $12.45. - CNBC

GlobalFoundries, onsemi, Among Chipmakers Looking To Support Physical AI, Automotive Advancements

As robotics and artificial intelligence continue to advance, companies are clamoring for chips to support their research and development. U.S.-based chipmakers GlobalFoundries, Onsemi and Diodes reported third quarter earnings that showed increased demand for their products to support physical AI and data center expansion as well as advancements in automobiles. Tariffs, meanwhile, are forcing many across the industry to retool their operational footprints to mitigate disruptions and higher trade costs.

“We believe the ongoing data center AI build-out is merely a prelude to the next step of the AI revolution: real-world applications in the physical space,” GlobalFoundries CEO Timothy Breen said on an earnings call Nov. 12. “We believe the ongoing data center AI build-out is merely a prelude to the next step of the AI revolution: real-world applications in the physical space,” GlobalFoundries CEO Timothy Breen said on an earnings call Nov. 12. Malta, New York-based GlobalFoundries reported total Q3 revenue of nearly $1.7 billion, a 3% decline from last year. Net income surged to $249 million for the period, up 40% YoY.

Onsemi, a maker of sensors, microcontrollers and other semiconductor products, saw revenue for the automotive end-market increase to $787 million, up 7% from the previous quarter. This was driven by growth in Onsemi’s Americas, China and Japan regions, EVP Thad Trent said on an earnings call Nov. 3. Revenue for industrial and AI data center markets also increased sequentially. Scottsdale, Arizona-based Onsemi has front-end and back-end manufacturing sites worldwide, including China, Canada and the Philippines, according to its latest annual report. In the U.S., the company has wafer fabs in New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Idaho and New Hampshire.

Read more at Manfuacturing Dive

GE Appliances Is Using New Tech To Fuel A ‘Zero Distance’ Supply Chain

GE Appliances is betting big on reshoring and automation technology to power a more resilient supply chain. The company, which manufactures household appliances such as refrigerators and washing machines, has been scaling stateside production over the last decade, investing $3.5 billion in its operations throughout the country since 2016, with plans to spend another $3 billion in the next five years. The investments support the company’s vision — what VP of Supply Chain Bill Good calls a “zero distance mentality” for the supply chain. Here are three ways the company is currently using automation and other technologies within its plants

1.     Improving production efficiency - GE Appliances has fully automated the process by which it builds many of the components for appliances, such as ovens, refrigerators and washers. For example, when constructing a refrigerator, the company employs a highly automated process to shape coiled steel into the outer case and doors of the product.

2.     Boosting end-to-end visibility - Over the last 10 years, GE Appliances has established a “digital thread” throughout its manufacturing systems, according to Good.

3.     Speeding up material movement - In pursuit of more efficient operations, GE Appliances is also reducing logistical roadblocks, both within and between its facilities.

Read more at Manfuacturing Dive

BAE, Boeing And Saab Team Up On T-7A Red Hawk Trainer Bid For RAF

Saab, Boeing, and BAE Systems have signed a Letter of Intent (LoI) to collaborate on the United Kingdom’s next fast-jet trainer, proposing a version of the T-7 Red Hawk as the core of a new training system for the Royal Air Force (RAF). Saab’s head of aeronautics, Lars Tossman, said the partnership builds on the strong Boeing-Saab cooperation that delivered the T-7 and argued that the aircraft would be a “worthy successor to the Hawk.”

Under the agreement, BAE Systems will lead the industrial activity as prime contractor, with a UK-based final assembly line and expanded domestic supply chain. The partnership is intended not only to meet the UK Ministry of Defence’s Advanced Jet Trainer requirement but also to position the solution for future international pilot training opportunities.

Read more at Aerotime

Dubai Air Show: FlyDubai Orders 75 Boeing 737 MAX Aircraft In Deal Worth $13 Billion As Emirates Buys Airbus A350s

FlyDubai, the lower-cost sister carrier of Emirates, said Wednesday it ordered 75 additional Boeing 737 MAX aircraft in a deal worth $13 billion. Emirates meanwhile bought eight Airbus A350-900 aircraft at a list price of $3.4 billion. The announcements came after FlyDubai earlier at the Dubai Air Show made a major Airbus A321neo purchase of 150 aircraft for $24 billion. Since its first flight in 2009, FlyDubai had only flown Boeing 737s, making the sale a major win for the European consortium at the biennial air show.

Emirates’ purchase of the A350s comes as airline has just started flying the plane, adding it to its fleet of double-decker Airbus A380s and Boeing 777s. Emirates earlier this week purchased 65 Boeing 777-9s with list price of $38 billion at the air show. Emirates’ purchase of the A350s comes as the airline has just started flying the plane, adding it to its fleet of double-decker Airbus A380s and Boeing 777s. Emirates earlier this week purchased 65 Boeing 777-9s with list price of $38 billion at the air show.

Read more at The Hill

Amazon’s Robotaxi Unit Launches In San Francisco Without Steering Wheels—Or Fees

Zoox, Amazon’s self-driving tech company, has begun offering rides to the public in its purpose-built robotaxis in San Francisco, following a similar launch in Las Vegas. For now, rides in the electric microvan, which has no steering, mirrors or pedals, are free, but commercial service will start next year if Zoox wins the first federal waiver to operate such vehicles. U.S. auto safety rules require carmakers to install standard controls, as well as windshields and wipers, on human-driven vehicles, but AI-driven cars and trucks don’t need them. Zoox already has permission from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration to test its vehicle – which looks like a small transit train car – on public roads and give free rides. A so-called Part 555 exemption will allow it to someday operate thousands of them in a commercial fleet, cofounder and CTO Jesse Levinson told Forbes.

With Waymo quickly expanding its robotaxi service to more cities, Elon Musk claiming Tesla is close to doing the same and Uber, Volkswagen, Rivian, Nuro, Lucid, Mobileye and other companies racing to the market, federal and state regulators are hard-pressed to keep up. If it wins approval, Zoox’s robotaxi will be a step beyond what industry leader Waymo has accomplished, though it will likely be followed quickly by multiple competitors.

Read more at Forbes

Abu Dhabi Airports and Skyports Confirm Vertiport Plans

Abu Dhabi Airports is teaming with Skyports to develop a network of vertiports to support eVTOL aircraft operations. The companies announced their partnership last week, confirming that they have already started construction at Zayed International Airport (OMAA) and Al Bateen Executive Airport (OMAD) and expect to have these facilities ready in the first quarter of 2026. Last year, the Abu Dhabi government gave its blessing for eVTOL air taxi services to be launched by rival manufacturers Archer and Joby. Earlier this month, local charter operator Falcon Aviation Services announced an order for 50 of AutoFlight’s V2000EM eVTOL models, including 35 passenger and 15 cargo versions.

Once construction is complete, Skyports and Abu Dhabi Airports intend to jointly operate the vertiports, with services including passenger handling, security, cargo operations, and supporting commercial operators. The agreement did not state where other vertiports might be located in the emirate. Other sites owned by Abu Dhabi Airports include Al Ain International Airport (OMAL), Dalma Airport (OMDL), and Sir Bani Yas Airport (OMBY).

Read more at Aviation News

Quote of the Day

“All happy families are alike; each unhappy family is unhappy in its own way.”

Leo Tolstoy - Russian Author from the opening line of his novel "Anna Karenina," who died on this day in 1910.

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