Member Briefing November 2, 2026

Posted By: Harold King Daily Briefing,

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PCE = 3.6 Inflation Accelerated in October According to Fed’s Preferred Index. US GDP Accelerates To 3.4% In The Third Quarter.

The personal consumption expenditures price index increased a seasonally adjusted 0.5% for the month, putting the annual inflation rate at 3.6%. The monthly increase was the largest since March but in line with the Dow Jones consensus, while the annual rate was 0.1 percentage point below. Excluding food and energy, the core PCE posted respective readings of 0.3% and 3.1%, in line with the consensus. While the Fed follows both measures closely, officials generally see the core reading as more indicative of longer-term inflation trends.

The US economy grew at a robust pace in the third quarter, driven by investment, consumer spending, and government spending. Gross domestic product increased at a 3.4% annualized rate, according to an initial estimate released Thursday by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, beating economists' expectations of 3.1% and marking an acceleration from the second quarter's 2.2% growth. The artificial intelligence build-out was the main engine, with business investment surging 12.7%. Consumer spending grew 3.8%, matching the rate in Q2 and the strongest since the end of 2024. The Conference Board reported this week that consumer confidence is improving, despite sticky inflation and higher gas prices. Third-quarter growth was partly offset by a decrease in exports. Imports, which are subtracted in the calculation of GDP, increased.

Read more at CNBC

Tech Sell-Off Drives US Markets Down By Nearly $1tn After Subpar Earnings Reports

A sell-off of tech stocks that began earlier this month and gained steam with disappointing earnings from leading tech companies drove US markets down by hundreds of billions of dollars Friday. In total, the decline has knocked nearly $1tn in value off the tech-heavy Nasdaq exchange in one week and erased about $2tn in a month. The S&P 500, the index of the 500 most valuable companies in the US, fell by more than 1% Friday, losing hundreds of billions of dollars in market value. It was on track to erase its gain for October, even though it set its all-time high during the same month. The weakness for technology stocks dragged the Nasdaq composite down even further, more than 3%, also erasing hundreds of billions in value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell less.

More than $2tn in market value is set to be wiped from the Nasdaq ⁠100 this month, as big tech earnings intensified investor scrutiny of whether the billions being poured into artificial intelligence can generate returns quickly enough. Worries are rising about whether all those hundreds of billions of dollars invested in AI infrastructure will produce enough profit and productivity to make AI investment worth it. At the same time, stocks of computer chip companies and other winners from the frenzy to build AI datacenters have come under pressure on concerns that high interest rates may slow the further build out of data centers.

Read more at The Guardian

Home Prices Fall And Rents Rise, Both For The First Time In Three Years

The median U.S. home sale price fell for the first time in more than three years, according to a new report from Redfin, a real estate brokerage. The drop was just 0.1% year over year for the four weeks ending Oct. 25, but it follows three straight years of increases. While mortgage rates have pulled back some in the last few weeks, they are roughly a full percentage point higher than they were one year ago. Higher rates are putting the typical homebuyer’s monthly payment now at the second-highest on record, according to Redfin.

  • Pending home sales continued to fall in the past few weeks. A separate report from the National Association of Realtors showed these sales in September hitting the lowest level in 25 years.
  • New listings are also falling, now at the lowest level since the start of this year, according to Redfin. That is because sellers are losing their advantage as supply rises and buyers back away. They can no longer command the prices they want.
  • With the for-sale market stalled, more renters are staying put, and that finally has rents rising again. Median rent nationwide rose 0.1% in October, according to Apartment List. That is the first gain in over three years.
  • The national multifamily vacancy rate stood at 7% in October, remaining elevated compared to long-term norms, but continuing to decline after peaking earlier this year.

Read more at CNBC

Iran and the Middle East

Ukraine

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Tomorrow is Election Day And a New Poll Shows Democrats Have A 7-Point Lead In The Battle For Congress Ahead Of Tuesday’s Elections.

Democrats have a sizable advantage in the battle for control of Congress days ahead of the midterm elections, a new national NBC News poll finds, with voters clamoring for change and voicing all-time high disapproval of President Donald Trump. Registered voters prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress by a 7-point margin, with Democrats leading Republicans 52%-45% — 2 points more than in last month’s poll. That includes a 21-point lead among independents. Three percent of voters remained undecided as the poll was conducted from Oct. 28 to Oct. 30, and how they shift in the final days could tilt the outcome in dead-heat House and Senate races around the country.

While the overall poll suggests that Democrats are poised to capitalize on a well of dissatisfaction with the president and his policies, there are findings that complicate the favorable picture. When it comes to which party better handles key issues, voters give Republicans and Democrats about even marks, and the Democratic Party remains deeply unpopular. Meanwhile, Republican voters in GOP-held districts and in states Trump won in 2024 are sticking with their party — which is notable because much of the battle for control of both the House and Senate runs through this red terrain.

Read more at NBC

NYS Unemployment Benefits To Be Delayed For Weeks While System Is Updated

The New York State Department of Labor (NYSDOL) must delay unemployment insurance benefits for nearly two weeks while the state updates its antiquated system beginning Monday evening. The upgrades are the largest of their type in the country, according to officials. The deadline to file a new claim or certify an existing claim is Monday, November 2, 2026, at 5 p.m. The process to bring the upgraded Unemployment Services system fully online is expected to take nine to 12 days. During the system upgrade, all online and phone-based unemployment insurance services will be temporarily unavailable. Individuals and businesses should be aware of the following:

  • Customers will not be able to file new unemployment insurance claims, certify for weekly benefits, or access or update account information during the upgrade period.
  • The deadline to file a claim or certify is Monday, November 2, 2026, at 5 PM.
  • Individuals will experience delays in payments; however, customers will receive all benefit payments to which they are entitled once the upgrade is complete and they file or certify for benefits in the upgraded system.
  • Customers must continue to complete and record work search activities during the upgrade period.
  • To stay eligible for unemployment insurance benefits, individuals must complete and record at least three work search activities each week unless they are exempt from work search requirements.
  • NYSDOL will notify all customers when the upgraded system is available.
  • The Unemployment Services upgrade will not affect electronic filing for Form NYS-1 and NYS-45 through the NYS Department of Taxation and Finance (TAX). Businesses will continue to file NYS-1 and NYS-45 through TAX once Unemployment Services is available.

Read more at Mid-Hudson News

Federal Debt Hits 100% of GDP

The U.S. national debt reached 100% of gross domestic product for the fiscal year that ended Sept. 30, hitting the triple-digit mark for the first time since 1946. The federal government had previously reported that the publicly held debt as of Sept. 30 was $32.2 trillion. With the release of economic output for third quarter Thursday, that figure equaled 100% (100.03%, to be exact), of gross domestic product over the fiscal year. That was up from 99.4% at the end of fiscal 2025, though below the Congressional Budget Office’s February forecast of 100.6%. The U.S. is moving steadily closer to breaking the 1946 record of 106%, an increase that reflected the heavy borrowing needed to win World War II.

Congress enacted repeated tax cuts and boosted spending to respond to emergencies including the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, the 2008-09 financial crisis and the 2020 Covid-19 pandemic. The country’s aging population drove up costs for Social Security and Medicare. The outlook is rough. Social Security is projected to reach insolvency in 2032, triggering automatic benefit cuts unless Congress acts. Net interest costs, the most immovable object in the budget, are projected to climb by more than 1% of GDP over the next decade, according to CBO. And that forecast from earlier this year assumed interest rates well below today’s prevailing rates. If all interest rates are 0.1 percentage point above CBO’s forecasts, that adds $379 billion in interest costs over a decade.

Read more at The WSJ

November Election Headlines

More Policy and Politics Headlines

Menopause In The Workplace: New Guide Lays Out Strategy For Building A Support Program

Employers who want to build a support program for workers experiencing menopause can start by identifying the benefits they already offer, the nonprofit Health Action Alliance says. HAA, a coalition of business, communications and public health organizations, has published a five-step guide employers can use to check that benefits and accommodations are clearly tied to menopause and part of an overall health and wellness strategy. To close that gap, HAA recommends employers:

  • Identify what menopause support your organization already offers. The guide includes a 24-point checklist to identify benefits already in place or those to put on a wish list. The checklist includes flexible schedules and deadlines, access to private break rooms or private spaces, and peer support or employee resource groups focused on midlife or women’s health.
  • Tweak the language in your existing communications. If you’re not ready to build a dedicated policy, begin by identifying existing supports as menopause related.
  • Create a dedicated policy. Begin with a simple statement affirming that your organization prioritizes employee success through every stage of life, including menopause. Then, share the existing supports your organization has in place.
  • Promote your policy. Make your team – especially managers who communicate to frontline workers – aware of the policy. To promote it, use existing avenues such as onboarding and orientation materials, newsletters, company intranet, wellness events, and posters.
  • Build on what’s working. Understand how employees are engaging with current benefits, along with what supports they still need.

Read more at Safety & Health Magazine

Upcoming Council Programs

Events

Annual Luncheon and Expo - Friday November 20, 11:00 AM - 2:00 PM. The Grandview, Poughkeepsie.

Insight Exchange - On Demand Webinars

The Orange County Foreign Trade Zone (FTZ): Duty Elimination, Reduction Deferral - Presented by Steve Gross, Orange County Economic Development

C3POA - Key Perpectives on your CMMC Compiance Journey - Presented by Nick DeLena, PKF O'Connor Davies.

CMMC for Legacy Equipment: Securing Specialized Assets with Zero Trust Micro-Enclaves - Presented by Marc Hoover, Trout Software.

See previous episodes here!

Training

Lean Overview and Simulation, (A CML Course) November 19, 8:30 - 4:30. SUNY Orange Newburgh.

Risk Management: Enviroment Health and Safety, (A CML Course) November 19, 8:30 - 4:30. SUNY Orange Newburgh.

Strategies for Motivation, Coaching and Managing Difficult People, (A CML Course) November 19, 8:30 - 4:30. SUNY Orange Newburgh.

Trade Wars

Key Earnings

Intel reported disappointing third-quarter results and forecast a prolonged slowdown in personal-computer sales. Much of the pressure on the PC segment is coming from the persistently high price of memory chips, and the company expects that pressure to remain into 2028. Intel’s revenue grew 21% to $16.51 billion in the third quarter, missing analyst expectations for $16.56 billion. Revenue from the company’s data center and AI segment surged 78%, to $7.3 billion, but revenue in the client computing and physical AI group fell 5%, to $8.1 billion. The company reported a third-quarter profit of $3.32 billion, compared with $4.06 billion in the year-ago period. - WSJ

Amazon's free cash flow — the cash left after paying for data centers, warehouses, and equipment — was an outflow of more than $42 billion over the 12 months through September, according to its third quarter results released Thursday. That's nearly double the previous record of about $23 billion, set in 2022 after Amazon overbuilt its warehouse network. Three months earlier, the outflow was less than $8 billion. Amazon Web Services (AWS) grew 39% to about $46 billion, its fastest pace in nearly five years, and Amazon's operating margin of nearly 14% was its highest ever. CEO Andy Jassy said in the release that he projects AWS growth of more than 40% in both 2027 and 2028. – Yahoo Finance

Chevron delivered a blowout third-quarter earnings report. The oil giant generated nearly $10.3 billion in adjusted earnings, or $5.28 per share. That's almost triple the $3.6 billion, or $1.65 per share, it reported in the third quarter of last year. Meanwhile, the company produced $12 billion in free cash flow, more than double the $4.9 billion it reported in the year-ago period. U.S. downstream (refining) earnings rocketed more than 450% to almost $3.6 billion, while earnings from its international downstream operations jumped more than 150% to $1.3 billion. Those strong market conditions helped Chevron offset a nearly 3% decline in production due to disruptions in the Middle East. – Yahoo Finance

Hudson Valley Based Regeneron Pharmaceuticals stock is up 12% today after a third-quarter beat powered by Dupixent, the blockbuster drug it shares with Sanofi. Regeneron reported revenue up 36% to $5.1 billion, against the $4.56 billion analysts expected and adjusted EPS up 70% to $20.07, against $16.25 expected. Dupixent (dupilumab) is a biologic medication that treats moderate-to-severe inflammatory and allergic conditions by blocking IL-4 and IL-13 protein signaling. Dupixent sales were up 35% to $6.5 billion. - TIKR

General Dynamics raised its 2026 revenue and profit forecasts on Friday after reporting stronger-than-expected ​third-quarter results, helped by robust demand for Gulfstream ‌business jets and submarine programs. Rising military spending amid ongoing wars and resilient demand for private aviation helped drive orders ​across the company's businesses. The defense contractor forecast ​2026 earnings-per-share to ​range between $17.20 ⁠and $17.30, up from its previous forecast of $16.80 to $16.90. It expects annual revenue of $56.5 billion ​to $56.8 billion, up from about $55.7 billion previously. - Reuters

Caterpillar delivered one of its strongest third quarters on record, powered by data center buildouts as orders across power generation, construction and mining continued to grow. The heavy machinery maker saw its backlog reach $78 billion, nearly double what it was a year ago. Caterpillar has taken steps to expand production of its large reciprocating engines and turbines, while increasing capacity, to meet surging demand for data center customers. Net sales and revenue was $20.7B, Up 17% YoY and profit was $3.3B. Caterpillar’s power and energy division, which manufactures gas-powered engines and generators, led the way for the company during Q3. Sales totaled $8.8 billion, up 18% from the same period last year. Most of the growth came from power generation sales, which increased 30% year over year and were fueled by data center customers, according to the report. - Manufacturing Dive

North American Robot Orders Grew Nearly 25% In Q3

The Association for Advancing Automation said this was the strongest quarter of 2026, driven by “substantial increases” in orders from the semiconductor, biopharmaceutical and automotive industries. Robots purchased by North American companies in the third quarter reached 10,989 orders, marking a 24.8% increase over last year, according to data released by the Association for Advancing Automation this week.

They were valued at $723.5 million, up 26.1% from the same period a year ago, data show. Manufacturers across industries, including semiconductor, biopharmaceutical and metals, had “substantial increases” in orders as capital poured into the U.S. market for facility automation and expansion. Collaborative robot orders increased 56% versus last year and comprised 16.7% of all units purchased during Q3. The quarter also marked a return to growth for the automotive sector, which saw declines in robot orders during the first half of 2026.

Read more at Manufacturing Dive

USDA To Fund 8 Fertilizer Manufacturing Projects Totaling More Than $1.3B

The U.S. Department of Agriculture pledged to fund eight fertilizer manufacturing projects that bolster domestic production and represent more than $1.3 billion in investments, Vice President J.D. Vance and Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins announced Oct. 22. The agency committed $573 million in proposed funding from its Fertilizer Investment and Expansion for Long-Term Domestic Supply Program for the projects, according to a news release. It diverted some funding from the Biden administration’s Fertilizer Production Expansion Program for the effort.

The agency selected projects in major farming states that support new and expanded manufacturing capacity for nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium and sulfur fertilizers, including the development of two facilities led by Agriculture Project Holdco in Kansas and Indiana. The USDA estimated that additional capacity could reduce nitrogen prices by 4.4% and potash prices by 5.3% once the projects are operational. The recent investments are expected to support nearly 1.1 million tons of annual domestic fertilizer production.

Read more at Manufacturing Dive

Honeywell Aerospace To Build New State-Of-The-Art Manufacturing Facility In Arizona To Support Growing Commercial And Defense Demand

Honeywell Aerospace last week announced a major expansion of its manufacturing facilities, strengthening the company’s ability to meet growing demand across current and next-generation commercial aviation and defense programs. The new $500 million, 300,000-square-foot Tempe, Arizona facility will include an integrated digital production system, modular robotics, automated inspection, digital twins, and be powered by an end-to-end digital thread. The facility will support the largest commercial and defense customers in aerospace and defense.

The new facility, near the company’s global headquarters, will create supply chain resilience by adding internal complex machining capability – a key area of the supply base that is currently constrained – while establishing a more vertically integrated production system for the next generation of products including Assure advanced actuation systems and Attune vapor cycle cooling subsystems. Opening in late 2028, the advanced manufacturing facility will support customers’ growth on current programs, $15 billion in Control Systems new program wins, and the future of aviation. The expansion will also provide capacity growth to support priority production of critical defense technologies included in the supplier framework agreement the company signed with the Department of War in March.

Read more at Aero Morning

Ford Execs Stick to 2029 EV Breakeven Target

After Ford reported its third-quarter profits of nearly $2.1 billion on revenues of $49.5 billion, CEO Jim Farley and his team told analysts and investors that they are confident the midsized Fathom, which is being priced at about $28,000, can gain traction in an EV market where prices have risen of late. Ford is ramping up operations at its Louisville, Kentucky, plant, where COO Kumar Galhotra said teams have completed 90% of validation testing and cranked out 5,000 unicastings, which are a big part of the company’s strategy to lower costs by reducing vehicles’ number of parts.

Ford’s Model e group posted a loss of $1.1 billion before interest and taxes during the third quarter, which was an improvement from $1.4 billion in the same period of 2025 but slightly worse than Q2’s $919 million EBIT loss. Customers will be able to start pre-ordering Fathoms, the first vehicle to be built on Ford’s Universal EV platform, early next year but CFO Sherry House said Ford will still be investing heavily throughout 2027. Also calling for lots of capital—about $1.3 billion next year—is Ford Energy, the battery-storage venture housed inside Model e and building a 4 million-square-foot plant in Kentucky that will produce lithium iron phosphate systems. That, House said, means progress toward the 2029 breakeven target won’t be linear.

Read more at IndustryWeek  

Manufacturers Gather to Build a Resilient Workforce

Nearly 300 manufacturers, educators and workforce partners from across the country convened in Indianapolis this week for the 2026 Workforce Summit, where they discussed practical solutions to manufacturing’s most pressing workforce challenges. Hosted annually by the Manufacturing Institute—the NAM’s 501(c)(3) workforce development and education affiliate—the summit is the premier event for manufacturing leaders focused on building and strengthening a resilient workforce.

  • Eli Lilly spotlighted its work to support frontline workers’ success, using corporate communications, connection to the company’s purpose and accessible career development programs.
  • GE Aerospace discussed how its Lifting Futures initiative and partnership with the MI’s Heroes MAKE America are providing pathways for transitioning service members to pursue manufacturing careers.
  • 3M and GPS Education Partners talked about how they work with schools and colleges to build aligned, student-centered talent pathways.
  • Schweitzer Engineering Laboratories shared its pull-based onboarding approach, which improves safety education, reduces ramp-up time and strengthens early engagement.
  • The American Composites Manufacturers Association and Miles Fiberglass & Composites showcased their blended training model, which combines digital and in-person learning to improve onboarding and upskilling. Caterpillar Inc. discussed how it aligns strategic investments with local needs and workforce infrastructure.
  • MI staff spotlighted the MI’s new AI Skills for Manufacturing Training Suite, which brings AI skills to the current and future workforce. Rheem Manufacturing then showed how AI can capture a plant floor’s institutional knowledge, helping train the broader workforce. McKinsey & Company also offered a practical roadmap for building an AI-ready workforce at scale.

Read more at TheNAM

Mitsubishi Power Plans $490 Million Manufacturing Facility Expansion In Georgia

Mitsubishi Power Americas plans to expand its manufacturing facility near Pooler, Ga. The company, which provides power generation solutions including gas, steam and aero-derivative turbines, power trains and environmental control systems, will invest $490 million in the project and create more than 220 new jobs. The expansion at Savannah Machinery Works, located at 1000 Pine Meadow Drive, will add 450,000 square feet to the existing facility. The additional space will be used to manufacture parts for gas turbines.

The company plans to hire workers for manufacturing, operations, heavy machinery and technician roles. The project is being supported by the Georgia Department of Economic Development, the Savannah Economic Development Authority, Georgia Power and Georgia Quick Start. Mitsubishi Power Americas CEO Bill Newsom said the investment will support the company's manufacturing capacity and workforce as demand for power increases. “Meeting the growing demand for power will require investment in facilities, in our supply chain, and in our workforce – which is what we’re building here at Savannah Machinery Works,” he said.

Read more at Plant Services

Daily Market Update Oct 28, 2026

The December ’26 natural gas contract is trading down $0.10 at $2.85. The December ’26 crude oil contract is up $2.10 at $103.10.

Read more at NRG

Learn more about the Council of Industry Energy Buying Group

Quote of the Day

“The reasonable man adapts himself to the world: the unreasonable one persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore all progress depends on the unreasonable man.”

George Bernard Shaw - Irish Author from his play 'Man and Superman.' He died on this day in 1950.

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