Member Briefing October 29, 2026

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Fed Holds Rates Steady - Here are Four Key Takeaways From The Decision And Warsh News Conference

The Federal Reserve voted Wednesday to hold its benchmark interest rate steady. At the press conference that followed, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh disclosed some of his thinking about where the U.S. economy stands, and how that affects monetary policy. But for Fed wonks, the big news may have been Warsh’s disclosure of some procedural changes ahead. Here are five key takeaways:

  1. No surprises: Markets had been widely expecting the Fed to hold, and it did just that. In explaining its decision, the Federal Open Market Committee emphasized a patient approach, saying, “The accumulation of more information will help the Committee determine the policy stance appropriate to ensure a timely return of inflation to the Committee’s 2 percent goal.”
  2. Well, one surprise: If there was one eyebrow-raising moment from the afternoon, it was Warsh’s disclosure of changes in how the FOMC will meet. In 2027, the committee will still meet eight times, but one of the meetings will not entail a vote on interest rates, or include a post-meeting statement.
  3. OK, two surprises: The FOMC vote to hold policy where it stands was widely expected. Dissent from multiple members also came as no shock. But one of the “no” votes coming from Governor Lisa Cook was a stunner.
  4. The AI impact: Warsh took the opportunity to talk about the impact artificial intelligence is having on economic growth, essentially saying that it was just one of several factors driving an expansion that he said was running strong.

Read more at CNBC

More Insights at Wells Fargo

US Consumer Confidence Rises for First Time in Four Months

Consumer confidence in October revived to June levels as consumer appraisals improved both for the present situation and for future expectations, a monthly survey from The Conference Board said. The research group said its consumer confidence index rose to 91.7 this month from 84.2 in September. Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had expected a reading of 81. September’s level was revised slightly upward. The recovery was in line with retail gasoline prices easing from September to October, said Fergus McCormick, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at the Conference Board.

  • Consumers’ assessment of current business and labor-market conditions increased to 120.4.
  • The expectations index, based on the short-term outlook for income, business and labor-market conditions, recovered by 6.9 points to 72.6.
  • The labor-market differential—the share of consumers saying jobs are “plentiful” minus the share saying jobs are “hard to get”—improved by 2.4 percentage points to 5.3%.
  • Consumers expected prices to rise 4.7% over the coming year, up from 4.6% in September.
  • Longer-term inflation expectations increased to 3.5% from 3.4%.

Read more at The WSJ

Mortgage Rates Fell For The Second Straight Week, But More Borrowers Still Sought Savings In Riskier Loans

Mortgage rates fell for the second straight week, and that finally brought consumers back to their brokers. A growing share, however, applied for riskier loans at even lower rates. Total mortgage application volume rose 3.4% last week compared with the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances, $832,750 or less, decreased to 7.37% from 7.41%, with points increasing to 0.76 from 0.75, including the origination fee, for loans with a 20% down payment.

Applications for a mortgage to purchase a home rose 4% for the week but were still 18% lower than the same week one year ago. While mortgage rates have pulled back some in the last few weeks, they are still much higher than they were just a few months ago, and home prices are still rising. As borrowers search for savings, more are opting for adjustable-rate mortgages. The ARM share of applications increased to 11.3% last week, the highest level in more than a year. The average contract interest rate for 5/1 ARMs decreased to 6.41% from 6.46%. ARMs are considered riskier because they adjust to whatever the current market rate is at the end of their fixed term.

Read more at CNBC

Iran and the Middle East

Ukraine

Other World Headlines

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New Siena Poll Has Hochul Up 14 Points Over Blakeman Days Before Election

Less than one week out from Election Day, a new poll from Siena University has Gov. Kathy Hochul leading her Republican opponent, Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, by 14 percentage points in what is likely one of the last public polls in the race. And in more good news for the incumbent governor, Hochul scored her highest favorability since taking office, breaking the 50% favorable threshold for the first time. In a survey conducted between Oct. 19 and 22 of 807 likely voters with a 4.1 percentage point margin of error, Hochul holds a fairly comfortable 54%-40% lead over Blakeman, with 6% undecided.

That’s a major improvement compared to last month, when Siena had the governor with just a 9-point margin over her Republican opponent. It’s also the same 14-point margin predicted by Quinnipiac University last week. Marist College also released new polling for the end of October. It found Hochul leading likely voters 53%-42%, an 11 percentage-point lead. That's identical to the polling released by the college earlier in October. The new Siena poll also has Hochul leading among independents with a thin 51% majority to Blakeman’s 40%.

Read more at CNBC

More from the Sienna Poll

In the two other statewide races, Democratic incumbents have double-digit leads. Attorney General Letitia James leads Republican Saritha Komatireddy, 54-39%, up slightly from 52-39% in September, and Comptroller Tom DiNapoli leads the GOP’s Joseph Hernandez 59-32%, up a little from 56-33% last month. Democrats also extended their lead in the generic congressional ballot and now lead 54-39%, from 51-40% in September.

  • By 48-28%, voters say Trump’s endorsement of Blakeman has been a negative for that campaign (51-30% last month), and Mamdani’s endorsement of Hochul has been a positive for her campaign, 45-30% (50-30% in September).
  • Democrats have a 54-39% lead over Republicans in the generic congressional ballot, up from 51-40% last month.
  • New York voters, including independents by a 50-36% margin, prefer an unnamed Democrat over an unnamed Republican for election to the House,” Greenberg said.
  • ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement) continues to be viewed unfavorably, 37-60%. That is an improvement for ICE compared to January’s 28-67% favorability rating.
  • Voters say the state is headed in the wrong direction (not the right track) 49-41%, slightly improved from 49-38% last month.
  • By a 66-27% margin, voters say the country is headed in the wrong direction, virtually unchanged from 66-28% in September.
  • President Donald Trump has a 36-61% favorability rating, up a little from 34-63% in September. His job approval rating stands at 37-62%, also up a little from 35-62% last month.
  • Zohran Mamdani’s favorability rating is 47-43%. It was 46-44% last month. He is popular with Democrats, 75-16%, and is better than two-to-one favorable in New York City, 69-28%, up from 60-31% last month.

Read more at The Siena Research Institute

GOP Divisions Threaten Defense Budget Plan

The president will need almost unanimous support from Senate and House Republicans to enact his $1.5 trillion Pentagon budget after the midterm elections, especially if the GOP is about to lose one or both chambers of Congress. But Trump’s recent receptiveness to Russia — including allowing the sale of Russian diesel fuel, waiving sanctions on Moscow and the still-unexplained slowdown of Ukraine’s satellite defenses — has alarmed the very people pushing for more military spending.

The administration has hinged its record defense budget to a party-line process called reconciliation. This would allow Republicans in Congress to add $350 billion to a $1.15 trillion defense base budget, despite objections from Democrats. Just a handful of defections, however, could jeopardize Trump’s entire defense agenda. This leaves hawks who want the White House to change course on Russia in an unusually powerful position. It also sends an early warning signal to the administration that some GOP lawmakers are ready to push back if they don’t get what they want.

Read more at Politico

November Election Headlines

More Policy and Politics Headlines

What Alzheimer’s Blood Tests Can’t Tell You About Your Dementia Risk

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration has cleared four blood tests to detect signs of changes associated with Alzheimer’s disease. Two, Elecsys pTau217 and PrecivityAD2, were cleared in August. While these tests are meant for people who already have memory or thinking problems, clinicians say people without symptoms are increasingly seeking them out, either through their doctors or commercial labs. Both new tests measure p-tau217, a form of tau that increases in the blood as amyloid accumulates in the brain. It is considered one of the most accurate blood markers of amyloid studied so far. Elecsys pTau217, produced by Roche, uses antibodies to measure p-tau217. PrecivityAD2, produced by C2N, uses a mass spectrometer to measure several forms of beta-amyloid and tau to indicate a likelihood of amyloid presence.

The trouble is that a positive result can’t reliably tell someone whether—or when—they’ll develop symptoms. And while these tests can detect signs of disease years before memory problems begin, no approved treatments exist for people without symptoms. For someone who feels fine, a positive result can bring anxiety, more tests, or concerns about future eligibility for life or long-term care insurance without necessarily changing their medical care. It’s why current guidelines advise against testing people without cognitive symptoms.

Read more at National Geographic

Upcoming Council Programs

Events

Annual Luncheon and Expo - Friday November 20, 11:00 AM - 2:00 PM. The Grandview, Poughkeepsie.

Insight Exchange - On Demand Webinars

The Orange County Foreign Trade Zone (FTZ): Duty Elimination, Reduction Deferral - Presented by Steve Gross, Orange County Economic Development

C3POA - Key Perpectives on your CMMC Compiance Journey - Presented by Nick DeLena, PKF O'Connor Davies.

CMMC for Legacy Equipment: Securing Specialized Assets with Zero Trust Micro-Enclaves - Presented by Marc Hoover, Trout Software.

See previous episodes here!

Training

Lean Overview and Simulation, (A CML Course) November 19, 8:30 - 4:30. SUNY Orange Newburgh.

Risk Management: Enviroment Health and Safety, (A CML Course) November 19, 8:30 - 4:30. SUNY Orange Newburgh.

Strategies for Motivation, Coaching and Managing Difficult People, (A CML Course) November 19, 8:30 - 4:30. SUNY Orange Newburgh.

Trade Wars

Key Earnings Reports

GE Vernova reported adjusted earnings per share of $4.81, beating the analyst estimate of $4.00 by $0.81. Revenue reached $12.64 billion, surpassing the consensus estimate of $12 billion and representing a 27% increase, or 18% organically. Net income for the quarter was $1.3 billion, with a net income margin of 10.2%. Adjusted EBITDA reached $1.9 billion with a margin of 15.4%, up 690 basis points organically. For fiscal year 2026, GE Vernova raised its revenue guidance to a range of $46.5 billion to $47.5 billion. The company also now expects adjusted EBITDA margin of 13.5% to 14.5%, up from 12% to 14%, and free cash flow of $16 to $17 billion, up from $11.5 to $12.5 billion. Yahoo Finance

Microsoft’s cloud business continued to post accelerating growth in the company’s most recent quarter, contributing to a higher profit and easing jitters over potential returns from the artificial-intelligence infrastructure build-out. The 48% growth in the Azure cloud business propelled Microsoft’s revenue to $92.28 billion, up 19%, for its fiscal first quarter. Microsoft logged a profit of $36.63 billion, or $4.92 a share, up from $27.75 billion, or $3.72 a share, a year earlier. On an adjusted basis, earnings were $4.89 a share, ahead of the $4.71 analysts were expecting. - WSJ

GE HealthCare Technologies Inc. reported third-quarter results that topped Wall Street estimates. The medical technology company reported adjusted earnings of $1.34 per share, beating the analyst consensus estimate of $1.20. Revenue increased 5.7% year over year to $5.513 billion, beating the consensus estimate of $5.35 billion. Total orders were up 4.0% organically, with a book-to-bill of 1.03 times and a backlog of $23.7 billion, driven by healthy demand. GE HealthCare raised its fiscal 2026 adjusted earnings guidance from $4.80-$5.00 per share to $4.95-$5.05 per share compared to the consensus of $4.92. - Benzinga

Google parent Alphabet on Wednesday missed Wall Street ‌profit and revenue expectations. Capital expenditures, driven by AI, will increase significantly in 2027, said Chief Financial Officer Anat Ashkenazi, adding that this year's capex forecast was unchanged. She said she also expected near-term margin ​pressure from the use of third-party cloud capacity. The tech giant reported negative free cash flow of $9.07 billion, compared with ​analyst expectations that it would come close to breaking even. The results ⁠reflect the huge costs of the AI buildout. The quarterly cash burn is an increase from $5.9 billion in the prior quarter, which ​was the first time the company went into the negative in its 22-year history as a public company. - Reuters

Boston Scientific lowered its outlook, as it expects to end a difficult year with a fourth-quarter sales decline. The medical company said it now expects annual sales to increase about 4.25%, down from its previous guidance range of 5.5%-to-6.5% growth. It also cut its adjusted earnings-per-share projection to $3.16 to $3.18, from the prior $3.28 to $3.32. Boston Scientific said it expects sales to decline in the current fourth quarter by 1% to 3%, with adjusted earnings per share seen at 77 cents to 79 cents. In August, the company suffered a cyberattack that disrupted its manufacturing and shipping operations within its medical-device division. - WSJ

South Korean based SK Hynix reported a 328% jump in quarterly revenue to roughly $78.7 billion, while operating profit surged 632% to about $62.7 billion, delivering an 80% operating margin. Revenue and operating profit increased by 32% and 38%, respectively, from the previous quarter. Growth was driven by surging AI data center demand, higher memory prices, and early shipments of HBM4, which SK Hynix expects to replace HBM3E as its mainstream product. SK Hynix said more than 50% of its 2027–2028 capacity is already committed under long-term agreements. It reiterated that the AI memory shortage will persist through 2030 as adoption expands beyond cloud providers to enterprises and physical AI applications, including robotics and autonomous driving. Yahoo Finance

Ford reported third quarter earnings that topped estimates and upped the lower end of its profit guidance. The company still sees EV losses piling up by the end of the year. For the quarter, Ford reported automotive revenue of $46.1 billion vs. $46.2 billion, per Bloomberg consensus, with adjusted EPS of $0.49 vs. $0.41, and adjusted EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes) of $2.66 billion vs. $2.38 billion. Ford tightened the low end of its full-year adjusted EBIT guidance to between $10.5 billion and $11 billion (from $10 billion to $11 billion seen prior); analysts projected full-year adjusted EBIT of $10.52 billion. Ford's adjusted free cash flow guidance remained at $6 billion to $7 billion. -Yahoo Finance

GE Vernova to Buy High-Voltage Grid Equipment Manufacturer for $9 Billion

GE Vernova agreed to acquire a high-voltage grid equipment manufacturer for $9 billion, a deal the company said will help meet increasing demand for grid-modernization and energy-security technologies. The company said the deal for Trench Group, which it is buying from investment-firm Triton Partners, will further enable it to serve fast-growing demand for grid equipment.

“Trench’s differentiated high-voltage grid technology, strong execution, and deep customer relationships are key enablers of the modernized, resilient grid required to keep pace with the electricity supercycle,” GE Vernova Chief Executive Scott Strazik said. GE Vernova’s deal for Trench is expected to be funded equally between cash and debt. The acquisition is expected to close in late 2027, subject to the completion of customary regulatory approvals. Trench’s products are found in the majority of high-voltage direct current lines built globally, according to GE Vernova. The company serves more than 800 global utilities and hyperscalers, with a manufacturing footprint that spans 11 sites across Europe, North America and Asia.

Read more at Yahoo Finance

GM Investing $750 Million To Build Hybrid Crossovers At Michigan Plant

General ‌Motors plans to introduce hybrid versions of its popular three-row SUVs, people familiar with the matter said, in a strategic shift after heavily investing in electric vehicles. The US automaker plans to build hybrid models of the Chevrolet Traverse, Buick Enclave and GMC Acadia at a factory in Lansing, Michigan, the ​people told Reuters. The mechanically similar models are among GM's strongest sellers in the US. GM said in a statement after ​Reuters reported the plans on Tuesday that it plans to invest in its Lansing Delta Township assembly ⁠plant to prepare for hybrid-vehicle production.

US hybrid sales have taken off as car shoppers seek relief from higher gas prices. GM, which only sells a hybrid version of the Chevy Corvette in the US, has lost market share ​this year, while strong hybrid players like Toyota have gained. GM executives have in the past said hybrids add too much cost and complexity, and that they preferred to invest in EVs. Hybrids also didn't help GM meet stringent emissions standards that Trump's administration ​has upended. GM's US market share dropped ​to 16.6% in the first ⁠nine months of the year, from 17.4% a year before, while hybrid leaders Toyota and Honda gained.

Read more at Reuters

Tesla Begins Humanoid Production In California

Tesla has started “early production” of its Optimus humanoid at Fremont, California, with plans to begin customer shipments next year, co-founder and CEO Elon Musk said in a third quarter earnings call last week. The electric vehicle manufacturer has installed the “vast majority” of a robotics production line at Fremont that is capable of making 1 million units per year, Musk said. He added that it would probably take “a year, maybe longer” to reach that rate as Tesla works through different production design configurations.

Early customers would use Optimus for industrial applications, such as dangerous, repetitive tasks, Musk said, but eventually people could purchase the robots for home use as Tesla scales production. Tesla is ramping production as competitors Toyota, Hyundai and others begin piloting humanoids on their factory floors. They are also positioning to be mobility companies that make their own robots, rather than just car manufacturers.

Read more at Manufacturing Dive

Nvidia Forges Supplier Agreements To Expand Capacity For AI

Nvidia unveiled agreements with a half-dozen suppliers to increase capacity to meet high demand for artificial intelligence systems powered by the company’s chips, according to an Oct. 21 press release. Nvidia inked agreements with Ibiden, Samsung Electro-Mechanics and Unimicron Technology Corp. to increase manufacturing capacity 2.5 times in aggregate over three years. The chipmaker also unveiled capacity agreements with partners Amkor Technology, King Yuan Electronics Co. and Siliconware Precision Industries to support production of systems that train and run AI models.

During Nvidia’s August earnings call, Huang told investors that supply constraints are weighing down Nvidia’s financial outlook for the next fiscal year. The shortages spanned the infrastructure provider’s supply chain because of the global build-out of data centers powering AI. “We are in the midst of the largest infrastructure buildout in human history,” Jensen Huang, Nvidia’s founder and CEO, said in the release. “Demand is extraordinary. Capacity is the constraint.”

Read more at Supply Chain Dive

Ford’s $30,000 Fathom EV Aims To Simplify Bidirectional Charging

The upcoming Fathom electric truck will be the first EV from a U.S. automaker with an MSRP below $30,000 that doesn’t need a separate inverter in order to supply its projected 10 kW of AC power to the home, according to a Ford blog post released Tuesday. To achieve that, Ford reconceived some onboard hardware on the Fathom to allow inverter capability to be integrated within the vehicle. The feat helps the automaker cut hardware costs for consumers while enabling the bidirectional charging capabilities already found in other EVs.

Hardware will cost much less than what was offered with the F-150 Lightning. Ford says that its Home Power Station will cost about half of the Lightning’s required $1,310 Charge Station Pro, while the Fathom’s Home Backup Power Panel will cost about 60% less than the previous $5,205 Home Integration System — not including installation costs. Ford underscores that home backup functionality for the Fathom will be able to work two ways: as a grid-connected device that can help provide smart charging and power the home when electricity is expensive, or, with the help of the Home Backup Power Panel, as a true power source for the home when the power goes out.

Read more at Ward’s Auto  

Strike Vote by 250 Watchmen Puts Nation’s Busiest Port Complex at Risk

Port employers in Southern California are warning of a possible strike at the nation’s busiest container-port complex as soon as Nov. 1. The Pacific Maritime Association said Tuesday that a union local that represents 250 watchmen across the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach voted to authorize a strike. The walkout could begin at 5 p.m. PT Sunday if a deal isn’t reached. Employers say full-time unionized watchmen, on average, earn more than $170,000 a year, plus benefits.

The employer group says that although the local represents just 2% of the ports’ International Longshore and Warehouse Union workforce, the watchmen’s work covers facilities that handle more than half of the complex’s cargo. Employers say other ILWU workers aren’t expected to cross picket lines, which would then halt vessel, yard and gate operations at six of the ports’ 13 container terminals. A spokesman for the ILWU didn’t immediately provide comment.

Read more at WSJ

Westinghouse To Build First Nuclear Fuel Plant In 50 Years To Boost US Reactor Output

Westinghouse Electric Company is spending roughly $1 billion to build a new nuclear fuel manufacturing plant in South Carolina. The project is underway at the existing Columbia Fuel Fabrication Facility in Hopkins, with operations scheduled to start in 2030. It represents the first fleet-scale nuclear fuel plant built in the United States in more than 50 years. The site will mass-produce a specialized grade of fuel known as Low Enriched Uranium Plus, or LEU+. Standard commercial fuel operates below these levels, but LEU+ increases uranium enrichment to between 5% and 8%.

This higher concentration changes the economics of running a commercial reactor. Because the core carries more energy, power plants can stretch the intervals between mandatory refueling shutdowns. Longer operating runs lower day-to-day costs for operators while providing steady baseload electricity to the grid. The manufacturing push supports the United States’ UPRISE initiative. Under that program, utilities aim to raise the total electrical output of existing reactors through what the industry calls plant uprates. The higher-energy LEU+ fuel will provide the thermal margin needed to expand power generation across the country without building new reactor vessels.

Read more at Interesting Engineering

Daily Market Update Oct 28, 2026

The November ’26 natural gas contract is trading up $0.08 at $2.78. The December ’26 crude oil contract is up $1.90 at $101.80.

Read more at NRG

Learn more about the Council of Industry Energy Buying Group

Quote of the Day

“Put it before them briefly so they will read it, clearly so they will appreciate it, picturesquely so they will remember it, and above all, accurately so they will be guided by its light.”

Joseph Pulitzer - American Newspape Publisher who died on this day in 1911.

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