Member Briefing October 14, 2025

Posted By: Harold King Daily Briefing,

WSJ Poll of Economist: Stronger Growth, Weaker Hiring Forecasted

Prospects for U.S. economic growth are looking up, as investment in artificial intelligence booms and risks around tariffs diminish, according to economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal. The survey was conducted earlier this month, before President Trump threatened to impose massive tariffs on China. Even as the economists have raised estimates for economic growth, they have lowered prospects for jobs. Behind the strange dichotomy: Employers are reluctant to hire given political uncertainty and rising costs, even as their investment, especially in AI, is boosting productivity and economic growth.

  • On average, economists expect gross domestic product adjusted for inflation to increase 1.7% in the fourth quarter this year from a year earlier, up sharply from the July survey average of 1%. For 2026 they still expect growth of 1.9%.
  • Even so, the labor market is expected to remain a weak spot. Economists expect employers to create just 15,000 jobs a month in the current quarter, down from more than 50,000 in July’s survey. Over the next four quarters, they see growth of about 49,000 jobs a month, down from 74,000 a month in their previous survey.
  • That slower job growth, however, won’t translate into notably higher unemployment, because the Trump administration’s crackdown on immigration is reducing the supply of workers. Economists expect the jobless rate to hover around 4.5% over the next year. It was 4.3% in August.
  • Forecasters put the probability of recession in the next 12 months at 33%, unchanged from July.

Read more at the WSJ

Uncertainty over the economy and tariffs forces many retailers to be cautious on holiday hiring

ncertainty over the economy and tariffs is forcing retailers to pull back or delay plans to hire seasonal workers who pack orders at distribution centers, serve shoppers at stores and build holiday displays during the most important selling season of the year. American Christmas LLC, which creates elaborate holiday installations for commercial properties such as New York's Rockefeller Center and Radio City Music Hall, plans to hire 220 temporary workers and is ramping up recruitment nearly two months later than usual, CEO Dan Casterella said. Last year, it took on 300 people during its busy period.

Job placement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas forecasts overall holiday hiring for the last three months of the year will likely fall under 500,000 positions. That's fewer than last year’s 543,000 level and also marks the smallest seasonal gain in 16 years when retailers hired 495,800 temporary workers, the firm said. Retailers' hiring plans mark the first clues to what’s in store for the U.S. holiday shopping season and come as the U.S. job market has lost momentum this year, partly because Trump’s trade wars have created uncertainty that's paralyzing managers trying to make hiring decisions.

Read more at YahooFinance

JPMorgan to Invest $10 Billion in U.S. Companies Critical to National Security

JPMorgan Chase said Monday that it would directly invest $10 billion in companies it deems critical to U.S. national security, part of an initiative to help protect the American economy as trade tensions with countries such as China escalate. The bank said it had committed to facilitating $1.5 trillion in investments for companies deemed “critical to national economic security and resiliency” over the next 10 years. That includes the $10 billion of its own capital it plans to use to take stakes in companies such as defense contractors, mineral manufacturers and artificial-intelligence firms.

Among the companies JPMorgan said it could invest in are producers of rare earths, the minerals needed to make computer chips, electric vehicles and other technologies. The bank said the companies it invests in will be primarily based in the U.S. JPMorgan also banks Intel, one of America’s most critical semiconductor manufacturers, and which the U.S. government took a 10% stake in earlier this year. Dimon said he believed that the U.S. needed to take steps immediately to protect its economic interests.

Read more at the WSJ

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Vance Warns ‘Deeper’ Cuts Ahead For Federal Workers As Shutdown Continues

Vice President JD Vance on Sunday said there will be deeper cuts to the federal workforce the longer the government shutdown goes on, adding to the uncertainty facing hundreds of thousands who are already furloughed without pay amid the stubborn stalemate in Congress. Vance warned that as the federal shutdown entered its 12th day, the new cuts would be “painful,” even as he said the Trump administration worked to ensure that the military is paid this week and some services would be preserved for low-income Americans, including food assistance.

“The longer this goes on, the deeper the cuts are going to be,” Vance said on Fox News’ “Sunday Morning Futures.” “To be clear, some of these cuts are going to be painful. This is not a situation that we relish. This is not something that we’re looking forward to, but the Democrats have dealt us a pretty difficult set of cards.”

Read more at AP

Weekly Unemployment Insurance Benefits, Employer Tax Set To Increase

The state Department of Labor is raising the maximum unemployment insurance benefit rate from $504 per week to $869 per week beginning next Monday, and benefit checks will reflect the change the following Tuesday. According to DOL, 27% of recipients will see the new maximum and an additional 28% will have their benefits go up. The department explained that after the state repaid its $7 billion federal Unemployment Insurance Trust Fund loan debt as part of the 2025 state budget, more benefits can be doled out, and businesses will save on the Interest Assessment Surcharge. Minimum benefits are not expected to increase.

The taxable wage base for employers – the portion of an employee’s wage that an employer pays taxes on – will increase from $12,800 this year to 18% of the state’s average wage, rounded to the nearest $100, in 2026 and beyond. State Department of Labor Commissioner Roberta Reardon told reporters Thursday that the pandemic and the mass of unemployment claims it created led to issues with the trust fund’s solvency, but barring a similar incident, the fund should be stable going forward.

Read more at City & State

Five Ideas for Helping Solve America’s Student-Loan Problem

Student loans are weighing down millions of Americans. Many in higher education say it doesn’t have to be that way. Borrowers often sign up for student loans without realizing how far into adulthood the debt can follow them. The federal government’s retreat from student lending under President Trump has made the prospect of paying for a degree even more daunting. It is enough of a burden that people are rethinking how the country pays for college. Here are five ideas that are getting attention:

  • Colleges offer more aid - Schools traditionally offer financial-aid packages that include a mix of tuition discounts and loans. Some colleges are trying to lighten the burden even more.
  • Automating loan repayment - Employees typically have state and federal taxes automatically withheld from their paychecks. Some say the same could be done for student-loan payments.
  • Workplaces pitch in - Employers benefit from a skilled workforce, and some are offering repayment assistance as a recruiting and retention tool.
  • A longer grace period - When the federal government paused student-loan payments during the Covid-19 pandemic, borrowers had more money available to pay down credit-card debt, invest or save.
  • States step up - Former President Joe Biden’s sweeping loan-forgiveness effort was struck down, but some states are using the concept to push workers into fields where they are needed.

Read more at The WSJ

How Lego MRI Scanner Sets Are Reducing Anxiety In Children Undergoing Medical Treatment

Lego’s MRI scanner sets, which feature a scanner, patient bed, waiting room, staff figures and medical instruments, were designed specifically to help children learn about the procedure through hands-on play. The miniature MRI machine table moves back and forth, mimicking a real procedure. On Monday, the toy company announced that more than 1 million children globally have used the sets to help them prepare for their medical procedures. New Lego research found that 96% of healthcare professionals said the model helps to reduce children’s anxiety, and 46% reported a lesser need to use sedation after the children played with the set.

“An MRI machine, that’s not something that kids are seeing in school, that’s not what they’re talking about at home, so it’s kind of like this new scary thing,” Boegler said. “Using the MRI Lego set, we’re able to show kids in a way that’s comfortable for them.” Lego doesn’t sell the sets and instead has donated more than 10,000 of the kits to hospitals around the world.

Read more at CNBC

Upcoming Council Programs

Events

2025 Annual Luncheon - November 21, 2025 -11:00 AM Expo, 12:00 Lunch. The Grandview, Poughkeepsie.

Networks

Safety & Health Sub Council Discussion of best practices and tour of Howmet Aerospace. November 6, 2025, 8:30 - 11:00 Howmet Aerospace, Kingston.

HR Sub Council Meeting Topic TBD, January 14, 2026, 8:15 - 11:00. Selux Corporation, Highland.

Insight Exchange On Demand Webinars

Webinars and Seminars

Check back soon

Training

FILLING FAST Introduction to Lean with Simulation - This full-day Lean Foundations course, led by Vin Buonomo from RIT CQAS, is designed as a starting point for those interested in Lean certification—including Yellow Belt and Green Belt. October 28, 2025 - Location TBD.

FILLING FAST Lean Six Sigma: Yellow Belt - Yellow Belt is an approach to process improvement that merges the complementary concepts and tools from both Six Sigma and Lean approaches. 3 Full days - November 12, 13 & 14 - DCC Fishkill.

Trade Wars

 

China September Exports To US Fall 27% But Overall Rise And Beat Expectations

China’s exports climbed at the fastest pace in six months in September, while imports logged their strongest gain in more than a year, even as a trade deal with the U.S. remains elusive. Exports grew 8.3% in September in U.S. dollar terms from a year earlier, China’s customs data showed Monday, beating Reuters-polled economists’ estimates for a 7.1% rise and rebounding from August’s six-month low. Imports jumped 7.4% last month from a year ago, sharply beating Reuters’ estimates for a 1.5% growth, marking the strongest level since April 2024, according to LSEG data.

China’s exports to the U.S. fell 27% in September, while imports declined 16% from a year earlier. Beijing’s imports from the U.S. have dropped by double digits year on year every month since April. The double-digit declines in U.S.-bound shipments were largely offset by sharp increases in exports to other markets. Exports to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, the European Union and Africa surged 15.6%, 10.4% and 56.4%, respectively.

Read more at CNBC

Nobel Economics Prize Awarded to Trio for Work on Innovation, Growth And 'Creative Destruction'

The Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences for 2025 was awarded to Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion and Peter Howitt on October 13. This is the final prize of the Nobel season. The three were honoured, according to a Nobel committee statement, “for having explained innovation-driven economic growth” with one half to Mokyr “for having identified the prerequisites for sustained growth through technological progress” and the other half jointly to Aghion and Howitt “for the theory of sustained growth through creative destruction.”

Mokyr used historical sources as one means to uncover the causes of sustained growth becoming the new normal. He demonstrated that if innovations are to succeed one another in a self-generating process, we not only need to know that something works, but we also need to have scientific explanations for why. Philippe Aghion and Peter Howitt studied the mechanisms behind sustained growth. In an article from 1992, they constructed a mathematical model for what is called creative destruction: when a new and better product enters the market, the companies selling the older products lose out. The innovation represents something new and is thus creative. However, it is also destructive, as the company whose technology becomes passé is outcompeted.

Read more at Reuters

Amazon To Hire 250,000 Workers During Holiday Season For Third Straight Year

Amazon said it plans to hire 250,000 workers for the holiday season across its fulfillment and transportation networks in the U.S., the same number as the last two years, as the e-commerce behemoth prepares for a surge in orders. The announcement on Monday, however, comes amid concerns that U.S. shoppers will be cautious about spending in this holiday season as they brace from the impact of President Donald Trump's tariff policies.

Amazon will hire full-time and part-time employees at $23 per hour with benefits, while seasonal workers will earn an average wage of over $19 per hour, it said. The company had last month said it is investing more than $1 billion to raise pay and lower healthcare costs for U.S. fulfillment and transportation employees. Retailers have issued mixed outlooks ahead of the holiday season, with Target and Best Buy maintaining their annual forecasts, and Walmart and Macy's raising theirs.

Read more at Yahoo Finance

OpenAI and Broadcom Sign Deal To Build Up To 10 Gigawatts Of Custom Chips

OpenAI announced on Monday that it has entered into an agreement with Broadcom that will see the two codevelop up to 10 gigawatts of AI accelerators. The announcement comes just a week after OpenAI announced a multiyear, multibillion-dollar deal with AMD that will see the chipmaker provide OpenAI with up to 6 gigawatts of AI processors. OpenAI also recently signed a $100 billion deal with Nvidia that will see the ChatGPT developer deploy up to 10 gigawatts of Nvidia systems.

Under the terms of the Broadcom deal, OpenAI said it will design the accelerators and systems, and then develop and deploy them with Broadcom. "Partnering with Broadcom is a critical step in building the infrastructure needed to unlock AI's potential and deliver real benefits for people and businesses," OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said in a statement. "Developing our own accelerators adds to the broader ecosystem of partners all building the capacity required to push the frontier of AI to provide benefits to all humanity," he added.

Read more at YahooFinance

First Brands CEO Patrick James Resigns Amid Bankruptcy Process; Turnaround Expert In Charge

First Brands said on Monday founder Patrick James had stepped down as CEO and will be succeeded by Chief Restructuring Officer Charles Moore on an interim basis, as the auto parts maker advances its Chapter 11 bankruptcy process. The Ohio-based company, which makes filters, brakes and lighting systems, filed for bankruptcy protection in late September, disclosing liabilities of about $11.6 billion.

Moore, who has served as the distressed auto parts company’s chief restructuring officer since September, will oversee stabilization initiatives and facilitate a court-supervised sale process. He brings more than 30 years of leadership experience in restructuring and performance improvement across the automotive supply chain, the company said.

Read more at CNBC

GM Halts Development Work On Its Next-Generation Fuel Cells For Hydrogen Vehicles

General Motors has made a strategic pivot in its energy technology portfolio, announcing the end of development on next-generation hydrogen fuel cell systems under its HYDROTEC brand. This decision reflects a broader industry trend toward prioritizing scalable solutions amid evolving market demands. While the move marks a pause in certain hydrogen innovations, it underscores GM’s commitment to technologies demonstrating proven customer value and growth potential.

Ultimately, GM’s decision illustrates a pragmatic approach to innovation in the automotive landscape. While hydrogen fuel cells hold untapped potential, the extended timeline for infrastructure development and cost reductions necessitates a measured strategy. By honing in on EVs and supportive technologies, General Motors reinforces its leadership in electrified mobility, paving the way for broader environmental impact. This recalibration ensures that R&D investments yield tangible benefits for customers and stakeholders alike, fostering long-term sustainability in an era of accelerating energy transitions.

Read more at The EV Report

South Korea Promises It Will Rekindle U.S. Shipbuilding. That’s Still Far Off.

At the Philadelphia shipyard in August, executives from its Korean parent company stood with South Korean President Lee Jae Myung for a ceremony announcing $5 billion in investments and orders for 12 new ships. Lee promised to help build a skilled workforce in the U.S., saying the shipbuilding industry would represent “growth, opportunity, dreams and hope” for young Americans. That dream is a long way off. The two biggest ships on order—a pair of liquefied natural gas carriers—will be made almost entirely in South Korea, according to the shipyard’s owner, Hanwha Group.

American shipyards employed more than a million people during World War II, but in the decades that followed, U.S. shipbuilding slowed to a trickle. Today, the few remaining major shipyards mostly build or repair vessels for the U.S. Navy. Those that do produce new commercial ships mostly make small vessels for U.S. companies operating on domestic routes. American shipyards get that business thanks to a 1920 law called the Jones Act, which mandates that ships moving goods between U.S. ports must be American-built, -owned, -insured and -operated. “Pure capital injections, even to the tune of billions of dollars, won’t be sufficient to provide the impetus for a sustainable renaissance in the U.S. shipbuilding industry,” said Basil Karatzas, chief executive of Karatzas Marine Advisors, a maritime consulting firm. It would also require a robust steel industry, a highly trained workforce and advanced engineering and design capabilities, he said.

Read more at The WSJ

Denmark Tabs $4.5B for More F-35s

Denmark agreed to purchase 16 more F-35 Joint Strike Fighter Jets to its current fleet in a decision to which it committed $4.5 billion, slightly more than half of a recently approved defense budget. “With the acquisition of 16 additional F-35 fighter jets, we deliver a historic strengthening of the Danish Air Force and the Danish Armed Forces. “I am very pleased that we have concluded this agreement on the additional F-35 acquisition, which significantly increases the combat power of the Danish Armed Forces,” stated Minister of Defence Troels Lund Poulsen. This decision is similar to one announced by the United Kingdom in July, amid growing European determination to counter Russian aggression in Europe.

The $4.5 billion also will fund purchase of F-35 spare parts, threat simulators, flight simulators, training instrumentation, braking parachutes, deployment kits, facilities, and additional staffing. Denmark is a NATO nation and one of the initial partner nations in the F-35 program, along with Australia, Canada, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Turkey, and the United Kingdom. It currently operates 15 F-35A jets, and six of those are stationed at Luke Air Force Base in Arizona, for training Danish fighter pilots.

Read more at American Machinist

Quote of the Day

Forgiveness is the only way to reverse the irreversible flow of history.”

Hannah Arendt - German/American Historian and Philosopher who was born on this day in 1906.

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