NFIB: Small Business Optimism Dips In September

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index declined 2.0 points in September to 98.8. This was the first decline in three months, though it remains above the survey’s 52-year average of 98. The Uncertainty Index rose 7 points from August to 100, the fourth-highest reading in over 51 years. Here are some key findings:

• Supply chain and inflation issues stood out as a key problem in the report. The net percent of owners raising average selling prices rose 3 points from August to a net 24% (seasonally adjusted). A net 31% (seasonally adjusted) plan to increase prices over the next three months, up 5 points from August.
• Fourteen percent of owners reported that inflation was their single most important problem in operating their business (higher input costs), up 3 points from August.
• In September, 64% of small business owners reported that supply chain disruptions were affecting their business to some degree, up 10 points from August.
• One bright spot was actual earnings changes (the net percent of owners reporting higher vs. lower profits), which increased three points in September, up to its highest level since December 2021.
• The net percent of owners expecting better business conditions fell 11 points from August to a net 23% (seasonally adjusted).
• In September, 18% of small business owners cited labor quality as their single most important problem, down 3 points from August and tying with taxes as the top single most important problem.

Read more at the NFIB

Machine Tool Orders Rebound in July

U.S. machine shops and other manufacturers registered a significant rise in new orders for manufacturing technology in August, up 36.2% from July to $529.4 million. The new total represents a nearly 45% increase from the August 2024 result, and it means that the eight-month total for 2025 is $3.44 billion, an 18.3% improvement over January-August 2024 according to AMT - the Assn. for Manufacturing Technology.

After a -14.0% drop in orders from June to July, contract machine shops’ August orders hit the highest level in 29 months (since March 2023). These job shops comprise the largest buying segment for metal cutting and metal forming equipment. Yet, the number of units orders continued to decline – meaning that the rise in the value of new orders is reflective of increasing prices more than of widespread demand. As AMT noted, “the average order value, a general proxy for the level of automation or complexity, was the highest among job shop orders since August 2011.” In contrast to job shop demand, orders for new machine tools by aerospace manufacturers and their suppliers were down -20.0% from July, AMT reported. But, it added that aerospace demand remains fairly high, as the total was 23.0% higher than the monthly average during the past 56 months (since January 2021.)

Read more at American Machinist

IMF Lifts Growth Outlook On More Benign Tariffs As Revived US-China Trade War Looms

The International Monetary Fund edged up its 2025 global growth forecast on Tuesday as tariff shocks and financial conditions have proven more benign than expected, but warned that a renewed U.S.-China trade war threatened by President Donald Trump could slow output significantly. The IMF now predicts global real GDP growth at 3.2% for 2025, up from a July forecast of 3.0% and a more severe April forecast of 2.8% that came after Trump imposed broad global "reciprocal" tariffs and a tit-for-tat escalation with China ensued. It sees global growth at 3.1% in 2026, unchanged from the July forecast.

• Under the IMF's baseline forecasts the U.S. outlook remains resilient, with 2025 growth at 2.0%, a slight upgrade from the 1.9% forecast in July. The IMF forecast 2026 U.S. GDP growth at 2.1%, also a slight improvement from July but well below the 2024 U.S. growth rate of 2.8%.
• Euro zone growth also improved a bit in the IMF forecasts, to 1.2% from 1.0% in July, due to fiscal expansion in Germany and continued strong momentum in Spain.
• Japan, which benefited from the front-loading of trade in the first half to beat U.S. tariffs, saw its growth rate significantly increased to 1.1% from 0.7% in July, also driven by stronger wage and domestic consumption growth. This will reverse somewhat next year, with growth settling back to 0.6% for 2026, but represents a 0.1 percentage points upgrade from July.
• The IMF raised its 2025 growth view in Latin America and the Caribbean region to 2.4% from 2.2% in July, mostly on the back of a 0.8 percentage point upgrade for Mexico, the region's second-largest economy, to 1.0% for 2025
• The IMF left its China growth forecasts unchanged at 4.8% for 2025, driven by increased exports that it said were likely unsustainable, and 4.2% for 2026.

Read more at Reuters

Middle East

• What’s Next In Trump’s Gaza Plan – The Hill
• Despite Momentous Ceasefire, The Path For Lasting Peace And Rebuilding In Gaza Is Precipitous - AP
• IDF Fires at Gazans ‘Who Crossed the Yellow Line’ During Ceasefire - Newsweek
• Torment Goes On for Families of Hostages Fighting to Get Bodies Back - WSJ
• Israel Might Halve Aid Into Gaza Over Slow Return Of Dead Hostages, A Test For The Gaza Ceasefire - AP
• Gaza's Rafah Border Crossing Will Remain Closed Through Wednesday, Israel Says - Reuters
• Trump Reaches Out to Iran - Newsweek
• Interactive Map- Israel’s Operation In Gaza – Institute For The Study Of War
• Map – Conflicts in the Middle East – Live Universal Awareness Map

Ukraine

• Zelenskiy Strips Odesa Mayor Of Ukrainian Citizenship – CNBC
• Fresh From Middle East Victory, Trump Sets His Sights on Peace in Ukraine - WSJ
• Russian Aerial Attack Hits A Ukrainian Hospital, Days Before Zelenskyy Meets Trump - AP
• Kremlin Says Russians Kicked Out By Latvia Are Most Welcome Back Home - Politico
• NATO Chief Mocks Russia’s Navy After ‘Broken’ Submarine Spotted - Newsweek
• NATO Seeks More Arms For Ukraine As Western Support Fades And Allied Airspace Concerns Mount - AP
• Interactive Map: Assessed Control Of Terrain In Ukraine – Institute For The Study Of War
• Map – Tracking Russia’s Invasion Of Ukraine – Live Universal Awareness Map

Other Headlines

• Chinese Freighter Halves EU Delivery Time On Maiden Arctic Voyage To UK - Reuters
• EU Leaders To Double Down On Deregulation Drive - Politico
• Trump Meets Argentina's Milei As US Advances $20 Billion Bailout – Reuters
• French PM To Freeze Retirement Reform In Bid To Save Government - Politico
• Madagascar Becomes Latest Country to See a Youth Revolt - WSJ
• Map Shows Japan War Games Near Pacific Adversaries - Newsweek
• US Strike On Boat Off Venezuela Kills Six, Trump Says - Reuters
• Military Says It Has Seized Power In Madagascar After President Moves To 'Safe Place' – BBC

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Slowdown In US Hiring Suggests Economy Still Needs Rate Cuts, Fed’s Powell Says

A sharp slowdown in hiring poses a growing risk to the U.S. economy, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Tuesday, a sign that the Fed will likely cut its key interest rate twice more this year. Powell said in a speech in Philadelphia that despite the federal government shutdown cutting off official economic data, “the outlook for employment and inflation does not appear to have changed much since our September meeting,” when the Fed reduced its key rate for the first time this year.

Powell reiterated a message he first delivered after the September meeting, when he signaled that the Fed is slightly more worried about the job market than its other congressional mandate, which is to keep prices stable. Tariffs have lifted the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation to 2.9%, he said, but outside the duties there aren’t “broader inflationary pressures” that will keep prices high. Powell also said that the central bank may soon stop shrinking its roughly $6.6 trillion balance sheet. The Fed has been allowing roughly $40 billion of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities to mature each month without replacing them.

Read more at the AP

News Outlets Refuse To Sign Pentagon’s New Press Policy As Deadline Looms

Major media outlets including the New York Times, the Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal and CNN have said they won’t agree to a new Defense Department policy restricting journalists’ communication with military sources. Those who don’t sign on to the new policy must forfeit their Pentagon press badges and won’t be issued new ones.  For decades, reporters wearing identification badges had broadly unfettered access to nonclassified areas of the Pentagon, able to walk the hallways of the sprawling building and visit officials’ offices. The agency limited where they could go without escorts earlier this year.

Members of the press have until Tuesday to sign the new policy, which states that military personnel need approval before sharing information with the media, even if it isn’t classified. It says members of the media should be aware that agency “personnel may face adverse consequences for unauthorized disclosures.” Asking agency personnel to “commit criminal acts” by disclosing unauthorized information isn’t protected under the First Amendment, the policy says. The policy drew rebukes from press-rights organizations, which have highlighted the role journalists have played in revealing wasteful spending, conflicts of interest and misconduct.

‍Read more at The AP

Bessent Says US In Talks With China To Prevent New Trade War

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Monday said the United States is in talks with China about how to de-escalate a trade war that reignited last week after Beijing announced plans to impose export controls on rare earth magnets used in a variety of high-tech products. “There has been substantial communications over the weekend,” Bessent said in an interview on Fox Business, adding that more “staff level” talks are expected this week in Washington when Chinese officials are in town for the annual fall meetings of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund.

Bessent also said he expects President Donald Trump will still meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea in late October, just before that country hosts the annual meeting of leaders from the 21 economies in the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation. Bessent said he expected to hold talks in Asia with his Chinese counterpart, Vice Premier He Lifeng, before the Trump-Xi meeting in South Korea. While sending the message the overall U.S.-China relationship is in “good” shape and Trump’s “100 percent tariff does not have to happen,” Bessent insisted Beijing must back off its plan to restrict rare earth magnets. He also suggested a “lower level official” may have made the Chinese decision to restrict exports, rather than Xi himself.

‍Read more at Politico

• Trump OMB Issues New Government Shutdown Warning: ‘Batten Down’ – Politico
• Barack Obama Joins Fight For US House Control, Urges Vote For California Districts To Counter Trump - AP
• Susan Collins Could Face Toughest Re-Election Fight Yet - WSJ
• White House To Continue Rifs As Shutdown Drags On - Politico
• Newsom Vetoes AI Chatbot Restrictions For Kids, Signs Bill Adding Guardrails – The Hill
• Highland Falls Opens Pop-Up Food Bank To Feed West Point Families Amid Federal Shutdown – Mid-Hudson News
• Nova Minerals Engaged Ahead of High-Level Critical Minerals Talks with U.S. President Donald Trump - GlobeNewsWire
• North Carolina GOP announce plans to vote on new House map amid nationwide redistricting battle - Politico
• Letitia James Headlines Zohran Mamdani Rally As Election Nears – NY State Of Politics

New 1-Day Surgery Removes Cancer And Reconstructs The Breast In The Same Operation

Athaliah McPherson’s stage 0 diagnosis of DCIS breast cancer in multiple areas of her right breast was not life-threatening in and of itself, but left unchecked, it might have developed into something more serious. Typically, doctors treat DCIS with partial or full breast removal surgery, sometimes followed by radiation or hormone therapy to lower future risk. McPherson was referred to the Montefiore Cancer Center. There, her team -- led by Dr. Pedro Piccinini, a plastic and reconstructive surgeon, and Dr. Maureen McEvoy, a breast surgical oncologist -- recommended McPherson undergo a new procedure called total breast reconstruction, which combines mastectomy (breast removal) and reconstruction in a single surgery.

Combining the two procedures allows for the removal of breast tissue and rebuilding the breast immediately, instead of doing two separate operations. The surgeon places the breast implants between the chest muscles to provide added stability, helping reduce the risk of distortion, movement, infection and fluid buildup. By avoiding the need to cut through or lift muscle, it can also lessen pain, speed recovery, and create a more natural breast shape. This differs from the usual approach, where reconstruction is often delayed until after the mastectomy has healed or other treatments are finished -- sometimes by several months or even a year. That delay often heightens the emotional distress of a breast cancer treatment.

Read more at ABC News

October is Breast Cancer Awareness Month

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Events

2025 Annual Luncheon - November 21, 2025 -11:00 AM Expo, 12:00 Lunch. The Grandview, Poughkeepsie.

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HR Sub Council Meeting Topic TBD, January 14, 2026, 8:15 - 11:00. Selux Corporation, Highland.

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Training

FILLING FAST Introduction to Lean with Simulation - This full-day Lean Foundations course, led by Vin Buonomo from RIT CQAS, is designed as a starting point for those interested in Lean certification—including Yellow Belt and Green Belt. October 28, 2025 - Location TBD.

FILLING FAST Lean Six Sigma: Yellow Belt - Yellow Belt is an approach to process improvement that merges the complementary concepts and tools from both Six Sigma and Lean approaches. 3 Full days - November 12, 13 & 14 - DCC Fishkill.

Trade Wars

• How China’s Rare Earth Restrictions Could Disrupt The U.S. Defense Industry And Reignite A Trade War – CNBC
• China Targets Five U.S. Subsidiaries Of South Korea’s Hanwha Ocean - AP
• US, China Roll Out Tit-For-Tat Port Fees, Threatening More Turmoil At Sea - Reuters
• Beijing Exempts Chinese-Built Vessels From Anti-US Port Fees - Tradewinds
• EU And India Move Into Final Stages Of Trade Talks With Continuous Contact - Politico
• Kitchen Cabinet Companies Hope New US Tariffs Pay Off In The Long Run - AP
• Wallenius Wilhelmsen Gives Up On Financial Forecasting As US Hikes Car Carrier Fees – Trade Winds
• Tariffs Back With Vengeance – Market Screener

To Move Or Not To Move? Manufacturers Hesitant To Nearshore Before USMCA Review

As the United States solicits feedback on the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement ahead of the deal’s review next year, manufacturers are mulling how they can minimize their exposure to tariffs. Mexico and Canada are the U.S.’ largest trading partners, with the country importing $505.5 billion and $411.9 billion worth of goods from the countries in 2024, respectively. The tariff exemption has led many firms already manufacturing in and sourcing from the two nations to reevaluate their products to see what qualifies. Some have seen increased business or a competitive advantage due to their existing compliance with USMCA.

But the tariff situation has been too fluid to prompt major moves for manufacturers with global supply chains, according to trade consultants and attorneys. While companies have expressed some interest and started discussions about shifting manufacturing into Mexico, the USMCA hasn’t spurred a resurgence of interest in U.S. manufacturing. Kimberly Reuter, chief advisor at CSG Consulting advised manufacturers to “take this time to really dive into all the costs associated with your product.” The process helps identify which products are compliant under USMCA, or which ones could be with a small shift in sourcing.

Read more at Manufacturing Dive

Ford Cuts Production of Five Trucks, SUVs After Fire at Aluminum Supplier

Ford Motor is temporarily cutting production of at least five models including popular SUVs after a devastating fire at a crucial aluminum supplier’s plant. Starting this week, Ford isn’t producing its lucrative three-row SUVs, the Expedition and Lincoln Navigator, at its Kentucky Truck Plant because of the difficulties with aluminum supply, an official from the United Auto Workers told members at the plant last week. The SUV pause is set to last a week, according to a memo the company sent to workers and viewed by The Wall Street Journal. The memo didn’t specify the reason for the move.

Automakers often schedule downtime throughout the year. In this case, Ford has pulled forward time off slated for later in 2025, according to a person familiar with the matter.  The three-alarm fire knocked the Novelis plant offline until early next year. The plant supplies about 40% of the aluminum sheet used by the auto industry in the U.S., according to industry analysts. Ford is the plant’s biggest customer. Its F-150 pickup, the top-selling truck in the U.S. and the automaker’s main profit driver, is one of the industry’s biggest users of aluminum.

Read more at WSJ

Big Bank Earnings Beat Estimates

JPMorgan Chase on Tuesday topped analysts’ estimates for the third quarter as trading and investment banking generated about $700 million more revenue than expected. The bank said profit jumped 12% to $14.39 billion, or $5.07 per share, from a year earlier. Revenue rose 9% to $47.12 billion. Fixed income trading at JPMorgan jumped 21% in the quarter to $5.6 billion, about $300 million more than the StreetAccount estimate. Equity trading surged 33% to $3.3 billion, also roughly $300 million more than expected. - CNBC

Goldman Sachs on Tuesday beat estimates for its third quarter on stronger-than-expected investment banking and fixed income trading. The company said in a release that profit surged 37% from a year earlier to $4.1 billion, or $12.25 a share. Revenue rose 20% to $15.18 billion. Investment banking was the engine for Goldman’s beat this quarter, with fees jumping 42% to $2.66 billion, or roughly $500 million more than what analysts surveyed by StreetAccount had expected. - CNBC

Wells Fargo on Tuesday beat Wall Street estimates for third-quarter profit and raised its closely watched profitability target after regulators removed an asset cap on the bank, paving the way for it to pursue growth. Net income was $5.59 billion, or $1.66 per share, in the three months ended September 30. That compares with $5.11 billion, or $1.42 per share, a year earlier. Analysts had expected a profit of $1.55 per share, according to estimates compiled by LSEG. Wells Fargo’s investment banking fees jumped 25% to $840 million in the quarter from a year earlier. They have surged 19% through the first nine months of 2025, from a year earlier. CNBC

Boeing Unveils CxR, A Large High-Speed VTOL UAS Concept

Boeing has unveiled a large, high-speed and vertical take-off-and-landing (VTOL), uncrewed aircraft system (UAS) for the U.S. Army, with a modular design focused initially on strike and reconnaissance roles but also capable of producing variants for cargo missions. The 5,000-7,000-lb. CxR design features a 200-250-kt.-capable tiltrotor configuration, with a single gas-fueled, turboshaft engine powering two tilting propellers, Chris Speights, chief engineer for Boeing’s Vertical Lift division, told reporters.

The concept comes as Boeing’s competitors also have shown interest in offering large, VTOL-capable UAS to the military. Sikorsky, a Lockheed Martin company, revealed the Nomad concept for a family of VTOL UAS based on rotor-blown lift propulsion technology. Shield AI also plans to unveil a VTOL-capable, collaborative UAS later this month. The Army’s original plan for the Future Vertical Lift family of systems included an Advanced UAS, but the project was shelved by 2020 to help focus the acquisition community on completing development of what has become the Bell MV-75, a large tiltrotor aircraft expected to partially replace the Army’s fleet of Sikorsky UH-60 Black Hawks.

Read more at Aviation Week

Consumer Credit Steadies in August

Consumer credit inched up 0.1% in August and 2.7% (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in Q2 after increasing 4.3% in July. Revolving credit, which includes credit cards, declined 5.5% after jumping 10.3% in July. Revolving credit advanced 2.0% across Q2, down from 2.9% in Q1. Meanwhile, nonrevolving credit, such as car and student loans, rose 2.0% in August, down slightly from the 2.2% increase in July, but still significantly higher than the 0.6% gain in Q1.

After the dramatic rise in revolving credit usage in July, consumers pulled back on credit card usage in August, likely in response to economic uncertainty amid a weakening labor market. Meanwhile, nonrevolving credit usage continued to increase at a relatively steady pace, amid a dramatic upsurge in new vehicle sales in August. Overall consumer credit in August was lower than the 2024 average, when consumer credit rose 2.0% over the year.

Read more at the Federal Reserve

GM To Take $1.6 Billion Charge Related To EV Pullback

General Motors’ third-quarter results next week will include a $1.6 billion impact from its all-electric vehicle plans not playing out as anticipated. The Detroit automaker Tuesday morning in a public filing said $1.2 billion of the impact will be non-cash, special charges as a result of adjustments to its EV capacity. The other $400 million in cash is primarily related to contract cancellation fees and commercial settlements associated with EV-related investments, according to the filing. The automaker said its reassessment of its EV capacity and manufacturing footprint is “ongoing,” signaling additional charges could be announced for future quarters.

GM was among the earliest to invest billions of dollars in an EV market that didn’t culminate. At one point, the company was planning to invest $30 billion by this year in EVs, including dozens of new models and capacity for battery production. The charges come amid changing regulations regarding EVs — particularly the end of $7,500 in federal tax credits — under the Trump administration as compared to President Joe Biden, who championed the vehicles.

Read more at CNBC

Polaris to Sell Indian Motorcycle Business to Private-Equity Firm

Specialty vehicle manufacturer Polaris PII 10.22%increase; green up pointing triangle is getting out of the motorcycle business after reaching a deal to sell its Indian brand bike operation to Carolwood LP, a Los Angeles-based private-equity firm. The company didn’t disclose the terms of the sale but said divesting the business will boost its annualized adjusted earnings by $1 a share. Indian contributed about $478 million, or 7%, to Polaris’s revenues for the one-year period ending June 30.

Indian sprang from a bicycle manufacturer founded in 1897, but struggled for survival for much of its history. It was producing a small number of motorcycles when Polaris bought the brand in 2011 with plans to become a player in heavyweight bikes. Fellow U.S.-based manufacturer Harley-Davidson dominates that category. While Indian rose to second place in North American market share, Harley dealers generally don’t consider the brand to be a serious rival, though they admire some of its products. About 900 of Polaris’s 15,000 employees will transition to the new, stand-alone company. Indian will retain its manufacturing facilities in Spirit Lake, Iowa, and Monticello, Minn., and former Harley executive Mike Kennedy will be the company’s CEO.

Read more at The WSJ

Check out Motorcyclepedia in Newburgh a museum with one of the world’s largest collections of Indian motorcycles

Both the EIA, IEA Forecast Higher Power Demand in 2026

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts record-high power consumption in 2026. Strong demand from semiconductor plants, battery manufacturing, and data centers will bring consumption to 4,191 billion kWh in 2025, up from 4,097 billion kWh in 2024. The 2.8% year-over-year increase tops the May forecast of 1.7% annual growth. Solar will lead all sources in new generation, reaching 450 billion kWh thanks to the addition of 222 GW of new capacity. This makes solar the leading driver of generation growth with a 17% expansion in 2026.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global electricity demand will increase by an average annual 3.3% in 2025 and by 3.7% in 2026. The forecasts are a downward revision from previous outlooks, but strong demand is still expected from industrials, air conditioning, and data centers. IEA reports that electricity demand is set to rise more than twice as fast as total energy demand over the forecast period.

Read more at Engie

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Quote of the Day

“There are two kinds of forecasters: those who don’t know, and those who don’t know they don’t know.”

John Kenneth Galbraith, Canadian Economist and author of "The Affluent Society," who was born on this day in 1908.

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