Member Briefing October 16, 2025

Posted By: Harold King Daily Briefing,

Trump Administration Will Set Price Floors Across Range Of Industries To Combat China, Bessent Says

The Trump administration will set price floors across a range of industries to combat market manipulation by China, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC in an exclusive interview Wednesday. China has driven foreign competitors in the rare earth industry out of business over the past two decades by using its global dominance in refining and processing to slash prices, Bessent said. “When you are facing a nonmarket economy like China, then you have to exercise industrial policy,” Bessent told Sara Eisen at CNBC.

The U.S. also needs to set up a strategic mineral reserve, Bessent said. JPMorgan Chase is interested in working with the Trump administration to create such a reserve, he said. Rare earths are used to produce magnets that are crucial inputs in U.S. weapons systems like the F-35 warplane and Tomahawk cruise missiles. Rare earth magnets are also essential for civilian commercial applications like electric vehicles. The U.S. could take equity stakes in other companies in the wake of Beijing’s rare earth restrictions, Bessent told CNBC. The Trump administration will not take stakes in nonstrategic industries, Bessent said. “We do have to be very careful not to overreach,” he said.

Read more at CNBC

Empire State Manufacturing Survey – ‘Modest Growth’ in October

Manufacturing activity grew modestly in New York State, according to the October survey. On the heels of September’s retreat into negative territory, the general business conditions index climbed nineteen points to 10.7.

  • After plunging last month, both new orders and shipments increased, with the new orders index rising to 3.7 and the shipments index climbing to 14.4.
  • The inventories index was -1.0, indicating that business inventories were little changed.
  • The delivery times index rose to 3.9, and the supply availability index came in at -10.7, pointing to somewhat longer delivery times and worsening supply availability.
  • The index for number of employees moved up to 6.2, suggesting employment increased modestly, while the average workweek index remained negative at -4.1, suggesting a small decline in hours worked.
  • Both price indexes remained elevated and moved higher: the prices paid index rose six points to 52.4, and the prices received index rose six points to 27.2.
  • The index for future general business conditions rose to its highest level in several months, suggesting that firms expect conditions to improve in the months ahead. New orders and shipments are expected to increase, and supply availability is expected to be little changed.
  • Capital spending plans remained soft.

Read more at the New York Fed

Grocery Prices Keep Rising. Frustrated Consumers Are Trying to Adapt.

Inflation in the grocery aisle is picking up, and stinging consumers. Consumers said they are cutting back on purchases, stockpiling certain foods or exploring more-affordable stores. “It’s perturbing and upsetting,” said Mark Bookbinder, a 68-year-old engineer who lives in Cincinnati. He has been struck by steady increases in the prices of sliced turkey, cereal and yogurt. Rising commodity prices are driving some of the increases, including American beef. Tariffs imposed by the Trump administration have separately raised the cost of importing a variety of goods, from Spanish olive oil to Guatemalan bananas to shrimp from Vietnam. Some of these costs have been absorbed by food companies; others are being passed on to consumers.

Albertsons Chief Executive Susan Morris said on a Tuesday earnings call that shoppers were choosing smaller package sizes and using more coupons to reduce their grocery bills. She said the supermarket company is looking to cut costs to help counter inflation. “We see them sticking closer to their shopping list, maybe not buying that extra item, that extra bottle of whatever,” Morris said.

Read more at The WSJ

Middle East

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Senate Spurns Bill To Reopen Government For Ninth Time As Impasse Deepens

Senators on Wednesday spurned the House-passed “clean” stopgap spending bill for a ninth time, putting the government shutdown a step closer to lasting into next week as the impasse deepens. The Senate voted 51-44 on the proposal, which would fund the government through late November. Sixty votes were needed for it to advance. The tally didn’t change from previous votes. Sens. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.), John Fetterman (D-Pa.) and Angus King (I-Maine) all once again voted with Republicans. Sen. Rand Paul (Ky.) remained the lone GOP “no” vote.

Democrats continue to insist that a fix is needed on expiring enhanced health care subsidies by the end of the month. GOP leaders maintain they’ll only negotiate on the credits once the government reopens. And both sides acknowledge that the other is entrenched. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), meanwhile, said talks have gone nowhere with the key Nov. 1 date for open health insurance enrollment looming in the distance.

Read more at The Hill

Regular Order - Thune Tries A New Shutdown Strategy

Senate Democrats’ next tough decision? Whether to play ball with Republicans on full-year appropriations bills or hold out to maintain leverage in the shutdown fight. GOP leaders are unleashing a new strategy in hopes of creating some movement amid the standoff. Majority Leader John Thune teed up a Thursday procedural vote on the House-passed Defense spending bill as his Republican colleagues try to expedite a House conference on the three-bill package the Senate passed in August.‍ Whether this is a pressure tactic or a trust-building exercise depends on whom you ask.

“If the Democrats can see the regular appropriations process running more smoothly, that might encourage them,” Appropriations Chair Susan Collins (R-Maine) told POLITICO on Tuesday. However, Senate Appropriations Vice Chair Patty Murray (D-Wash.) said she recently told Speaker Mike Johnson that only a leadership-level negotiation on a broader list of outstanding items, including health care, could break the impasse and end the shutdown. But it could be tempting to at least make progress on the full-year bills while the shutdown drags on. As Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.) told POLITICO, those are “two separate issues. Since we’re here, let’s go ahead and get started on it,” he said. “I like the idea of using our time wisely.”

Read more at Politico

Data Darkness In US Spreads A Global Shadow

The U.S. government shutdown that has turned off the official flow of data could begin clouding the view for policymakers in Japan and other countries where insight into the fortunes of the world's biggest economy informs the outlook for their own currencies, trade performance and inflation. What happens in America, in other words, doesn't stay in America, and global officials say being left data-blind by the shutdown over time could complicate their own policymaking and boost the risk of a mistake at a moment when countries are already adjusting to the Trump administration's efforts to remake global trade.‍

The shutdown could end at any time and the flow of data resume. But the episode is nonetheless symptomatic of a deeper set of issues around U.S. governance and data reliability, including Trump's efforts to gain new influence over the Federal Reserve and his firing of the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics because he was angry over a jobs report that the IMF cited among the "downside risks" facing the world right now. "Intensification of political pressure on policy institutions...could erode hard-won public confidence in their ability to fulfill their mandates," the World Economic Outlook published Tuesday by the IMF stated.

Read more at Reuters

The Simple Steps That Can Prevent Dementia

My beloved grandmother Evelyn lived independently into her 90s. She clutched my arm tightly at every visit, sharing her terror that she would lose her prodigious memory—she was able to recite long passages of Shakespeare—and end, undignified, in a nursing home. She pleaded with me to prevent this fate. But that’s exactly what happened. I watched helplessly in the early 1990s as dementia consumed the fierce intellect that defined my grandmother. She spent her final years biting at nursing staff, unable to communicate. I felt that I had failed her.

Shakespeare wrote of the seven ages of man, ending morosely, “sans teeth, sans eyes, sans taste, sans everything.” But these infirmities are not inevitable, and in recent years doctors have learned a lot more about how to prevent dementia. Today, I would be able to do more to help my grandmother. If you or a loved one are getting older, so can you. The tools for a healthy, dementia-free future exist: blood pressure control, appropriate statin and other therapy, smoking prevention and cessation support, and comprehensive primary care focused on prevention. We need a healthcare system that delivers them reliably, for all our sakes.

Read more at the WSJ

Upcoming Council Programs

Events

2025 Annual Luncheon - November 21, 2025 -11:00 AM Expo, 12:00 Lunch. The Grandview, Poughkeepsie.

Networks

HR Sub Council Meeting Topic TBD, January 14, 2026, 8:15 - 11:00. Selux Corporation, Highland.

Insight Exchange On Demand Webinars

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Training

FILLING FAST Introduction to Lean with Simulation - This full-day Lean Foundations course, led by Vin Buonomo from RIT CQAS, is designed as a starting point for those interested in Lean certification—including Yellow Belt and Green Belt. October 28, 2025 - Location TBD.

3 Seats Left Lean Six Sigma: Yellow Belt - Yellow Belt is an approach to process improvement that merges the complementary concepts and tools from both Six Sigma and Lean approaches. 3 Full days - November 12, 13 & 14 - DCC Fishkill.

Trade Wars

 

ASML Orders for Cutting-Edge Machines Boom as AI Fuels Demand

ASML, the world's biggest supplier of computer chip-making equipment, reiterated on Wednesday it expects to benefit from booming AI investment, even as it warned Chinese demand was expected to significantly drop next year. CEO Christophe Fouquet said Europe's largest tech firm by market capitalization was seeing "continued positive momentum around investments in AI." That boom was helping customers both in advanced logic chips - those used in smartphones and AI datacenters - and advanced memory chips also needed for AI.

ASML's lithography tools, key for making chip circuitry, are sold to TSMC of Taiwan - which makes most AI chips for Nvidia - and to other logic chip firms such as China's SMIC and Intel (. It also serves memory chip makers like Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron. ASML said it expects Chinese sales to fall "significantly" next year, after having made up nearly half of company sales in 2024 and a third so far in 2025. CFO Roger Dassen said on a media call the decline was a "normalization" and not due to stockpiling amid the U.S.-China trade war.

Read more at Reuters

Jeep-Maker Stellantis Plans $13 Billion Investment to Boost U.S. Manufacturing

Stellantis is planning to spend billions of dollars to make more Jeeps, pickups and Dodge SUVs in the United States, in what the global automaker describes as the largest single investment in its history. Stellantis said Tuesday that it would spend $13 billion through the end of the decade as it launches five new vehicles and a new four-cylinder engine, creating more than 5,000 jobs at plants across the Midwest. Suppliers providing parts for those models may add 20,000 jobs, Chief Executive Antonio Filosa said in an interview.

Stellantis, the Netherlands-based automaker that also includes European brands Opel, Peugeot and Fiat, was created in early 2021 through the merger of Fiat Chrysler Automobiles and France’s PSA Group. The automaker relies heavily on North America, which historically has driven a majority of profits. Last week, Stellantis said that vehicle shipments in North America rose 35% in the most recent quarter, compared with a year earlier, as the company started deliveries of Ram 1500 pickups with Hemi V-8 engines.

Read more at WSJ

More Big Bank Earnings Exceed Expectations

Morgan Stanley on Wednesday posted third-quarter earnings that topped expectations by the largest margin in nearly five years. The bank said profit surged 45% from a year earlier to $4.61 billion, or $2.80 per share. Revenue rose 18% to a record $18.22 billion. Investment banking revenue in the quarter jumped 44% from a year earlier to $2.11 billion, about $430 million more than the StreetAccount estimate. The bank cited more completed mergers, more IPO activity and more fixed income fundraising as reasons for the booming results. Equities trading revenue rose 35% to $4.12 billion, or $720 million more than what analysts surveyed by StreetAccount had expected. CNBC

Bank of America on Wednesday posted third-quarter results that exceeded analysts’ expectations on stronger-than-expected investment banking revenue. The second-largest U.S. bank by assets said profit rose 23% from a year earlier to $8.5 billion, or $1.06 per share. Revenue increased 10.8% to $28.24 billion. Investment banking fees surged 43% from a year earlier to $2 billion, about $380 million more than analysts surveyed by StreetAccount had expected. Equities trading also contributed to the quarterly beat; revenue there rose 14% to $2.3 billion, roughly $200 million more than the StreetAccount estimate. Fixed income trading rose 5% to $3.1 billion, matching expectations. CNBC

Global Demand For Patriot Missiles Rises - Boeing Given $2.7 Billion In Contracts

Defense Contractor Boeing announced on Tuesday that it had been given about $2.7 billion in multiyear contracts to produce more than 3,000 Patriot Advanced Capability‑3 (PAC‑3) seekers through 2030. Boeing said the demand for PAC‑3 interceptors has spiked in light of the conflicts and tensions in Ukraine, the Middle East and the Indo-Pacific. Boeing is set to deliver over 3,000 seekers, a key component for the Patriot interceptor missiles, at a rate of up to 750 units a year, according to the agreements.

The Patriot systems have been among the key tools in Ukraine’s efforts to defend against Russia’s missile and drone attacks over the past three years, and are also a key part of Taiwan’s preparations for a potential Chinese attack. That demand has ramped up pressure on U.S. manufacturers to ensure that U.S. stockpiles aren’t depleted.

Read more at The Hill

Boeing Gains EU Antitrust Nod For $4.7 Billion Spirit Aerosystems Deal

Boeing secured EU antitrust approval on Tuesday for its $4.7 billion acquisition of Spirit AeroSystems after agreeing to sell some Spirit businesses to address competition concerns. The deal announced last year aims to help Boeing streamline its operations and improve quality control, years after it spun off the airline supplier. Boeing offered remedies after the European Commission, which acts as the EU antitrust enforcer, said the deal would have significantly reduced competition in the global aerostructure market and in the large commercial aircraft sector.

The Commission said it accepted Boeing's offer to divest all of Spirit's businesses that currently supply aerostructures to Airbus (AIR.PA), opens new tab to the European rival, confirming a Reuters story last week. Boeing will also sell Spirit's site in Malaysia, which supplies aerostructures to Airbus, to Composites Technology Research Malaysia Sdn Bhd, allowing the Malaysian company to enter the market.

Read more at Reuters

GE Aerospace Announces $30M Investment In Workforce Training

Over the next five years, GE Aerospace will invest $30 million into its new workforce program. It comes at a time of high demand from airliners and a growing need for manufacturing workers. GE held an event Tuesday, in part to announce how its new program will help bridge that gap. We spoke to Chief Human Resources Officer Christian Meisner about the new program. "We've got demand for new aircraft, which means new engines, as well as the airlines wanting to keep their fleets flying," Meisner said.

GE said it's hoping to increase the number of highly skilled manufacturing workers by 10,000 beginning next year. The company is also partnering with educational programs across the country, including in Cincinnati. Cincinnati State Technical and Community College will receive $250,000 from GE. That money will fund two new aviation maintenance technician instructors to help expand the program capacity from 185 students to 350.

Read more at WCPO Cincinnati

New Program Aims To Put Nuclear Generators On Army Bases

U.S. officials Tuesday announced a program to locate small nuclear power generation reactors on U.S. Army bases around the world.Army Secretary Dan Driscoll and Energy Secretary Chris Wright announced the Janus Program, aimed at developing microreactors to generate power without relying on diesel fuel, at the Association of the U.S. Army conference in Washington. Driscoll and Wright emphasized the importance of being able to supply vast amounts of energy to remote locations while limiting threats to supply chains.

In 2022, Pentagon officials also announced “Project Pele,” with the goal of developing a 40-ton nuclear reactor capable of one to five megawatts of power that could be transported to an austere environment. Driscoll, Wright, and Jeff Waksman, the Army’s principal deputy assistant secretary for installations, energy and environment, who will lead the project, said Tuesday that the Army will work with the Defense Innovation Unit and the Energy Department to develop and test the microreactors, which will be commercially owned and operated. Driscoll touted the partnership with commercial entities, saying that it was the Army’s goal to be a, “host for American entrepreneurship and industry.”

Read more at Defense News

SpaceX Successfully Lands 11th Test Starship

SpaceX closed a chapter in its Starship saga on Monday. It launched what appeared to be a nearly flawless suborbital mission with its Version 2 Starship-Super Heavy rocket, the final flight for this iteration of the launch vehicle. The more than 400-foot-tall rocket thundered away from Pad A at Starbase at 6:23 p.m. CDT (7:23 p.m. EDT / 2323 UTC) to begin the roughly one-hour-long flight. The only notable hiccup during ascent was that one of the planned 13 Raptor engines on the Super Heavy booster, tail number B15, didn’t reignite during the boostback burn.

This was the final Starship launch of the year and the last mission that will fly from Pad A in its current configuration. SpaceX now turns its attention to completing and testing Version 3 of Starship-Super Heavy, which will begin launch from Pad B. It’s this iteration of the rocket that SpaceX intends to use for launching payloads to orbit and eventually flying missions to the Moon and Mars. To get to those missions beyond low Earth orbit though, SpaceX will need to master the ability to both transfer and store propellant in orbit.

Read more at Spaceflight Now

The Rest of the World Is Following America’s Retreat on EVs

The U.S. retreat from its electric-vehicle ambitions is spreading around the globe. In Canada, Prime Minister Mark Carney paused an electric-vehicle sales mandate that was set to take effect next year. In the U.K., Prime Minister Keir Starmer has allowed for a more flexible timetable to hit the country’s EV targets. And the European Union last month bowed to pressure from automakers to rethink—a year earlier than planned—its 2035 target for eliminating carbon-dioxide emissions from cars. Even China, the world’s most dominant EV market, is showing cracks. Sales continue to grow, but increasingly at the expense of profitability as carmakers fight for customers in an oversaturated market.

Automakers have been saying that consumers aren’t adopting EVs as quickly as expected, and government efforts to proliferate the technology are hammering their bottom lines. GM, in announcing its $1.6 billion charge, said it is reassessing EV capacity and warned that more losses are possible. “There is more realism that EVs are probably a good solution in the future, but it’s not going to be forced down the throat of customers,” said Christian Meunier, chairman of Nissan Americas, referring not just to the U.S. but to much of the Western world. “It’s pragmatism.”

Read more at the WSJ

Quote of the Day

"Don't fight the problem, decide it."

George C. Marshall - American General and Secretary of State. Author of the The Marshall Plan that rebuilt Europe after The Second World War. He died on this day in 1959.

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