Member Briefing October 20, 2025

Posted By: Harold King Daily Briefing,

The Bankruptcies Auto Parts Maker First Brands And Auto Finance Company Tricolor, Have Shaken Investor Confidence

Global auto parts manufacturer First Brands Group declared bankruptcy in late September, surprising the fixed income market. Coming on the heels of the failure of Tricolor Auto Group, an auto retail/finance company, the news contributed to fears about the health of the secured lending market and credit quality overall. Thursday, Regional Bank Zions Bancorporation disclosed it would take a $50 million loss in the third quarter on two commercial and industrial (C&I) loans from its California division related to First Brands and Tricolor The disclosure added to growing investor unease about hidden credit stress as lenders navigate elevated interest rates and economic uncertainty.

Some analysts still see the collapses as idiosyncratic and tied to individual borrowers, rather than systemic. But the cases are fueling unease. "Bankruptcies and fraud are natural in markets, but it doesn't always lead to something systemic," said David Wagner, head of equities at Aptus Capital Advisors. The world’s biggest band, JPMorgan, wrote off $170 million in the third quarter related to the Tricolor bankruptcy and said it was reviewing its controls, with CEO Jamie Dimon describing the bank's exposure as "not our finest moment".

Read more at Yahoo Finance

NY Fed: Service Sector Activity “Declined Substantially” in October

Business activity declined substantially in the region’s service sector in October, according to firms responding to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Business Leaders Survey. The survey’s headline business activity index fell four points to -23.6, a multiyear low. The business climate index fell to -42.9, suggesting the business climate remained worse than normal.

  • The employment index fell two points to -5.2, its second consecutive negative reading, suggesting employment continued to decline. T
  • The wages index edged down to 25.9, indicating that wage growth was modest and slightly slower than last month.
  • The prices paid index moved up three points to 66.4, signaling a pickup in input price increases.
  • However, the prices received index fell six points to 26.4, its lowest level since June, indicating a slowdown in selling price increases.
  • The supply availability index remained negative at -13.8, indicating that supply availability continued to worsen.
  • The index for future business activity inched up to -3.4, suggesting firms were slightly pessimistic about the outlook. Half of firms also expect the business climate to be worse.
  • The indexes for future prices paid and future prices received both remained elevated.
  • Firms expect little employment growth in the months ahead. Supply availability is expected to worsen, and capital spending plans remained soft.

Read more at the New York Fed

S&P Analysis Of 9,000 Companies Worldwide Finds The Real Cost Of Tariffs And Other Corporate Costs: $1.2 Trillion

President Donald Trump’s tariffs are leading a trillion-dollar corporate squeeze, most of which is inevitably falling on consumers’ shoulders, an S&P Global report finds. Companies will lose at least $1.2 trillion more this year than they expected before the year began and the picture on trade and tariffs dramatically changed, according to the report, published Thursday. It also reflects factors including wage increases and energy prices, and rising capital expenditure, particularly in AI infrastructure, S&P added.

S&P estimates $53 trillion in company expenses for this year, revising its January 1 forecast. The report’s analysis pulled from forecasts from more than 15,000 analysts following roughly 9,000 public companies, which represent $111 trillion of the $130 trillion global equity market, or some 85%.“Global corporate margin expectations have contracted sharply” by about 0.64%, or $907 billion in lost profit among firms covered by sell-side analysts, the report said. This “wedge” is roughly made up of an increase of $600 billion in revenue forecasts and a $300 billion fall in earnings estimates. Sell-side analysts cover the largest global retailers like Walmart, Amazon and Costco Wholesalers. Of the estimated $907 billion lost, roughly two-thirds, or $592 billion, is being passed to consumers via higher prices.

Read more at Yahoo Finance

Middle East

Ukraine

Other Headlines

Senate Democrats Tank Military Funding Bill Amid Shutdown Feud

Senate Democrats on Thursday turned an annual Pentagon funding bill into the collateral damage of a fierce shutdown battle, blocking the legislation as they pressed for an agreement that includes their domestic priorities. The defense funding bill — including a military pay raise — fell far short of the 60 votes needed to advance. All but three Democrats opposed the move by Republicans to open debate on the bill. It failed in a 50-44 vote, as many Democrats argued the Senate should instead focus on a deal to end the shutdown.

Majority Leader John Thune floated packaging the Pentagon bill with domestic spending measures important to Democrats, including funding for the labor, health and education programs, after the Senate began debate on it. Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, meanwhile, argued Republicans didn’t have unity in their own ranks to add other bills to the defense measure. The pitch didn’t sway most Democrats — including supporters of the Senate’s bipartisan defense package. Some signaled ahead of the vote that they wouldn’t support the GOP gambit without greater assurances that their priorities would get included.

Read more at Politico

NYISO Again Identifies Reliability Need for NYC, LI and Hudson Valley

The ISO’s Short-Term Assessment of Reliability released last week, examined the five-year period from July 2025 to July 2030 and identified reliability weaknesses beginning in New York City in 2026, in Long Island in 2027 and in the Lower Hudson Valley region in 2030. The New York City area will be deficient “through the entire five-year horizon without the completion and energization of future planned projects,” the STAR report concluded.

“The reliability needs identified by the STAR [report] in New York City and Long Island are based on a deficiency in transmission security,” the ISO said. “Transmission security analysis tests the ability of the power system to withstand disturbances, such as electric short circuits or unanticipated loss of a generator or a transmission line, while continuing to supply and deliver electricity to consumers during peak demand when the system is stressed.” And the ISO added that the risk of deficiencies beyond the STAR report “is even greater when considering a range of plausible futures with combined risks, such as the statistical likelihood of further generator retirements or failures,” the report said. “New York’s generation fleet is among the oldest in the country, and as these generators age, they are experiencing more frequent and longer outages.”

Read more at Utility Dive

Gallop Study: Majority Of Americans Lack Quality Jobs

A new workplace report is saying the quiet part out loud—most Americans do not hold quality jobs. Only 40% of U.S. workers hold roles that provide financial well-being, a voice in workplace decisions and opportunities for growth at safe and respectful workplaces where they hold some control over their work, according to the study led by Gallup. Quality was described by five different components: financial well-being; workplace culture and safety; growth and development opportunities; agency and voice; and work structure and autonomy. A role must meet the minimum threshold of at least three of the categories to be considered a quality job.

For each dimension, researchers compared specific quantitative measures as part of their quality evaluation. Financial well-being, for example, measures stable employment, workplace benefits and fair pay, defined as workers earning more than 300% of the federal poverty level for a family of two ($5,287.50 per month.) Beyond pay, workplace experience is key to quality jobs. Having agency over work, whether it be in scheduling, in-office presence or even work alignment to the company’s mission, has become one of the most important measures, especially for GenZ.

Read more at Forbes

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Women Who Miss First Breast Cancer Screening At ‘40% Higher Risk’ Of Dying From The Disease

Women who miss their first breast cancer screening appointment have a 40% higher risk of dying from the disease, according to a new study. Experts at the Karolinska Institute in Sweden analysed data for about half a million women across Sweden, with the findings published in the British Medical Journal. The women all received their first screening invitation between 1991 and 2020 and were monitored for up to 25 years. After taking into account social, economic, reproductive, and health-related factors, the researchers found almost one in three (32%) women did not attend their first mammogram appointment. Not attending a first screening was linked with a significantly higher risk of breast cancer death – 9.9 deaths per 1,000 women over 25 years – compared with seven in those screened.

Responding to the study in a linked editorial, US researchers said the results showed attending a first appointment was about “far more than a short-term health check”. For most women, the first screening appointment is unlikely to result in a cancer diagnosis or signal any areas of concern. But even just turning up and getting information about how to reduce their risk and what symptoms to look out for can act as “a long-term investment in breast health and survival”, the US researchers said.

Read more at the Guardian

Upcoming Council Programs

Events

2025 Annual Luncheon - November 21, 2025 -11:00 AM Expo, 12:00 Lunch. The Grandview, Poughkeepsie.

Networks

HR Sub Council Meeting Topic TBD, January 14, 2026, 8:15 - 11:00. Selux Corporation, Highland.

Insight Exchange On Demand Webinars

Webinars and Seminars

Check back soon

Training

NEXT WEEK - FILLING FAST Introduction to Lean with Simulation - This full-day Lean Foundations course, led by Vin Buonomo from RIT CQAS, is designed as a starting point for those interested in Lean certification—including Yellow Belt and Green Belt. October 28, 2025 - Location TBD.

2 Seats Left Lean Six Sigma: Yellow Belt - Yellow Belt is an approach to process improvement that merges the complementary concepts and tools from both Six Sigma and Lean approaches. 3 Full days - November 12, 13 & 14 - DCC Fishkill.

Trade Wars

 

The Auto Industry Is Panicking About Another Potential Chip Shortage

The auto sector is digesting a new and potentially damaging supply-chain disruption from an unlikely source: a small Dutch semiconductor manufacturer with an outsized influence on how cars and trucks are made.  Nexperia notified customers last week that it was stopping shipments of parts, people familiar with the matter say. The move came after the Dutch government wrested control of the company from its Chinese owner, Wingtech Technology.

Nexperia, whose parts end up in cars from BMW, Toyota and Mercedes-Benz, produces high volumes of semiconductors and basic transistors that are used in vehicle systems, including electronic control units. Car companies and parts makers are now racing to find alternative sources of chips, saying that if Nexperia’s chips aren’t shipped, vehicle production could be affected in the next few weeks.

Read more at WSJ

TSMC Profit Surges Amid 'Strong' AI Demand

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. on Thursday reported a 39.1% increase in third-quarter profit from last year, beating estimates and hitting a fresh record as demand for artificial intelligence chips stayed strong. TSMC’s revenue in the September quarter rose 30.3% from a year ago to NT$989.92 billion, also beating estimates. Net income increased 13.7% from last quarter, which had marked a record high at the time.

TSMC’s high-performance computing division, which encompasses artificial intelligence and 5G applications, made up the majority of sales in the July-September quarter, accounting for 57% of revenue. TSMC said advanced chips, with sizes 7-nanometer or smaller, accounted for 74% of TSMC’s total wafer revenue in the quarter. TSMC executives also said Thursday that they were monitoring U.S. tariff developments as Taiwan negotiates for a lower “reciprocal” rate and Washington weighs industry-specific duties on semiconductors. However, TSMC is likely to receive some exemptions.

Read more at CNBC

Union Files Labor Complaint on Boeing Defense

The union representing more than 3,000 striking workers at three Boeing Defense plants has filed an unfair labor practices complaint with the National Labor Relations Board, contending that the manufacturer will not negotiate in good faith to settle the 11-week-long dispute. An “unfair labor practice” complaint is a charge that the employer has violated federal or state labor laws by interfering with employees' rights to organize, bargain collectively, or engage in other protected activities. It should result in an NLRB investigation, and possibly a hearing to substantiate the charge and determine what action may be required.

According to the union, Boeing’s offers do not compare in terms of the signing bonus provided to other Boeing workers, and do not improve the workers’ 401(k) benefits. The union is referring to the agreement it reached with Boeing Commercial Airplanes in October 2024, following a seven-week strike by more than 30,000 workers. The strike affects plants where Boeing Defense assembles fighter aircraft including the F-15 and F/A-18, and other missile and defense systems. Non-union workers have been operating the plants, but Boeing began training replacement workers in early October.

Read more at American Machinist

Boeing Commercial Aircraft Deliveries Grow In Q3, But Still Trail Airbus

Boeing delivered 55 aircraft to customers last month, putting it on track for its best year since 2018 as its production stabilizes and its executives eye increased output rates of its 737 Max cash cow airplanes. Forty of the deliveries were 737 Maxes, Boeing said Tuesday, with customers including European budget carrier Ryanair, which took 10, as well as Southwest Airlines, United Airlines, China Southern and leasing firm AerCap. In the first nine months of 2025, Boeing has delivered 440 airplanes. Rival Airbus has reported 507 deliveries to customers so far this year.

Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg last month said the manufacturer expects the 737 Max production rate to reach 42 a month by the end of the year, a step-up from the 38 a month cap set by the Federal Aviation Administration after a near-catastrophic blowout of a door plug on a flight in January 2024. Boeing on Tuesday also reported net orders of 48 aircraft in September, or 96 gross sales before accounting for adjustments, including 64 787 Dreamliners, with 50 for Turkish Airlines, and 30 737s for Norwegian Airlines.

Read more at CNBC

Prologis Raises Outlook as Industrial Leasing Picks Up

The world’s largest owner of industrial real estate says companies are ramping up their warehouse-leasing decisions after three years of slow demand. San Francisco-based Prologis on Wednesday said its revenue in the third quarter grew to $2.21 billion, up about 9% from $2.04 billion in the same quarter last year. Analysts polled by FactSet had expected $2.27 billion.  The company raised its full-year earnings guidance to a range of $3.40 to $3.50 a share, up from its previous forecast of $3 to $3.15 a share.

“Demand has clearly turned a corner,” said Chris Caton, managing director of global strategy and analytics at Prologis, on a call with investors Wednesday. The industrial real-estate market is at an inflection point, Caton said. “This comes from greater breadth and depth of our customer discussions and their willingness to make decisions.” Prologis has a portfolio of 1.3 billion square feet of industrial real estate in 20 countries with tenants such as Amazon.com, FedEx and Home Depot. The company has been building more data centers as demand grows for infrastructure to power the artificial-intelligence boom.

Read more at The WSJ

Pentagon Solicits Bids For $151 Billion SHIELD Missile Defense

An updated solicitation for the Scalable Homeland Innovative Enterprise Layered Defense, or SHIELD, program gives interested companies until 6 p.m. Eastern Standard Time on Thursday to submit proposals. The initial Defense Department contract announcement in September drew more than 1,500 inquiries during a five-day question period, according to official documents attached to the updated announcement. SHIELD would include ground- and space-based systems, satellites and weapons capable of detecting and destroying missiles fired at the U.S. homeland.

SHIELD would include ground- and space-based systems, satellites and weapons capable of detecting and destroying missiles fired at the U.S. homeland. A constellation of space-based interceptors designed to defeat intercontinental ballistic missiles could cost as low as $161 billion, according to a Congressional Budget Office memo in May. But an advanced system capable of defending an attack by peer or near-peer adversaries, such as Russia or China, could cost upward of $542 billion over 20 years, the CBO said.

Read more at Stars and Stripes

Copper Demand To Rise 24% By 2035, Says Wood Mackenzie

Global copper demand is set to increase 24% by 2035, according to analysis by Wood Mackenzie. The consultancy’s latest report says global copper demand will rise by 8.2 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) by the middle of next decade, reaching 42.7 Mtpa, with growth driven by traditional economic development and new structural demand from electrification and digitalization.

While Wood Mackenzie says this growth trajectory seems “certain”, it adds there are four “powerful disruptors” that could amplify demand further, adding an extra three Mtpa, or 40% of total copper demand growth, by 2035. These disruptors are listed as a global increase in data centres, industrialization in India and Southeast Asia, defence spending and the energy transition. Wood Mackenzie says the broader energy transition is “fundamentally reshaping copper consumption patterns”, with the shift to renewables expected to require an additional 2 Mtpa of copper supply over the next decade.

Read more at PV Magazine

Used Vehicle Prices Rose Slightly in September: Cox Automotive

Used-vehicle prices remained higher than a year ago, even though some of the steam has come out of a recent streak of price increases at dealer-only, wholesale auto auctions, according to the latest Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index. The Manheim Index is a single measure designed to track used-vehicle wholesale price changes, weighted for a changing mix of product segments and mileage. The index is seasonally adjusted and is calculated relative to a starting point, where January 1997 equals 100. The rise this year in the Manheim index followed 26 consecutive months of declines, from a peak of 257.7 in January 2022, which was driven by short supply and high-demand.

For 2026, Cox Automotive is forecasting “more tailwinds than headwinds,” said Smoke. Favorable tailwinds include lower taxes, lower interest rates, and – from the point of view of automakers, dealers, and auto lenders – less regulation. Unfavorable headwinds include affordability, general economic worries and tariffs. According to Cox Automotive, tariffs could be responsible for new-vehicle price increases of 4% to 6% next year, and as much as 8%, depending on how much of the tariff costs are passed along to consumers.

Read more at Ward’s Automotive

AI Data Centers, Desperate for Electricity, Are Building Their Own Power Plants

Tech companies in the AI race need power, and lots of it. They aren’t waiting around for the archaic U.S. power grid to catch up. Most tech titans would be happy to trade their DIY sourcing for the ability to plug into the electric grid. But supply-chain snarls and permitting challenges are complicating everything, and the U.S. isn’t building transmission infrastructure or power plants fast enough to meet the sudden surge in demand for electricity. America should be adding about 80 gigawatts of new power generation capacity a year to keep pace with AI as well as cloud computing, crypto, industrial demand and electrification trends, according to consulting and technology firm ICF. It’s currently building less than 65 gigawatts. That gap alone is enough electricity to power two Manhattans during the hottest parts of summer.

With the push for AI dominance at warp speed, the “Bring Your Own Power” boom is a quick fix for the gridlock of trying to get on the grid. It’s driving an energy Wild West that is reshaping American power. In West Texas, natural-gas-fired power generation is under construction as part of the $500 billion Stargate project from OpenAI and Oracle. Gas turbines are in use at Colossus 1 and 2, the massive data centers Elon Musk’s xAI is building in Memphis, Tenn. More than a dozen Equinix data centers across the country are using fuel cells for power.

Read more at the WSJ

Quote of the Day

"In science one tries to tell people, in such a way as to be understood by everyone, something that no one ever knew before. But in poetry, it's the exact opposite."

Paul Dirac - English Theoretical Physicist and Nobel Laureate who's Dirac equation predicted the existence of antimatter. He died on this day in 1984.

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