Member Briefing October 2, 2025

Posted By: Harold King Daily Briefing,

'May you find forgiveness and peace on this Day of Atonement'

September 2025 ISM® Manufacturing Report Manufacturing PMI® at 49.1%

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in September for the seventh consecutive month, following a two-month expansion preceded by 26 straight months of contraction, though it's the mildest pace of contraction in seven months. The apparent improvement owes much to longer wait-times, though production is still slightly positive, say the nation's supply executives in the latest ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report.

  • The Manufacturing PMI® registered 49.1 percent in September, a 0.4-percentage point increase compared to the reading of 48.7 percent recorded in August.
  • The New Orders Index contracted in September following one month of growth; the figure of 48.9 percent is 2.5 percentage points lower than the 51.4 percent recorded in August.
  • The September reading of the Production Index (51 percent) is 3.2 percentage points higher than August's figure of 47.8 percent.
  • The Prices Index remained in expansion (or 'increasing' territory), registering 61.9 percent, down 1.8 percentage points compared to the reading of 63.7 percent reported in August.
  • The Backlog of Orders Index registered 46.2 percent, up 1.5 percentage points compared to the 44.7 percent recorded in August. The Employment Index registered 45.3 percent, up 1.5 percentage points from August's figure of 43.8 percent.
  • The Inventories Index registered 47.7 percent, down 1.7 percentage points compared to August's reading of 49.4 percent.

Read more at Wells Fargo

ADP: U.S. Lost 32,000 Private Sector Jobs in September

The U.S. shed 32,000 private-sector jobs in September, payroll processing giant ADP said on Wednesday. That is down from a revised loss of 3,000 in August. Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had expected an increase of 45,000. ADP’s report doesn’t include government workers, but economists (and the Member Briefing) are giving it a closer look this month. That is because the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ monthly jobs report, which was scheduled to come out this Friday, may get delayed by the government shutdown. ADP’s report is based on data from more than 26 million workers whose employers use ADP to manage payrolls. That is a large sample of U.S. private-sector employment, which includes about 136 million workers.

The leisure and hospitality sector shed 19,000 jobs last month, the largest decline among major sectors, according to ADP. Education and health services were bright spots, with a collective gain of 33,000 jobs. The gap between small and big establishments in the labor market continued to widen last month. Small establishments with fewer than 50 employees shed 40,000 jobs, while those with 500 or more employees added 33,000 jobs.

Read more at the WSJ

Record Highs - Gold Is Forecast to Rise 6% by the Middle of 2026

The price of gold is forecast by Goldman Sachs Research to rise 6% through the middle of 2026 (as of September 24), underpinned by fresh demand from key groups of buyers who have contributed to a series of record highs for the yellow metal. The precious metal has risen more than 40% in 2025 and is on pace for its third-straight year of double-digits gains. The gold price is predicted to rise to $4,000 per troy ounce by the middle of next year (up from $3,772 on September 24). Their gold price forecast is driven by strong structural demand from central banks and easing from the US Federal Reserve (which supports ETF demand for gold).

Buyers of gold fall into two broad groups, according to Goldman Sachs Research. Conviction buyers tend to purchase the yellow metal consistently, regardless of the price, and based on their view on the economy or to hedge risk. These include central banks, exchange-traded funds, and speculators. Their thesis-driven flows set the price direction. At the same time, speculative positioning in derivatives markets by large investors like hedge funds appears significantly bullish on gold. The amount of net long gold bets on the futures and options exchange COMEX is in its 73rd percentile since 2014 as speculators build up their long positions betting on gold prices to rise.

Read more at Goldman Sachs

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Government Shutdown 2025: A Guide To What’s Still Open, What’s Closed And What’s Fuzzy

The government shutdown that began Wednesday is set to furlough food inspectors, park rangers and millions of other federal workers in Washington and across the nation. Some are only heading to their offices for a few hours to “undertake orderly shutdown activities.” The federal courts and some government agencies like the IRS have enough money to run with for a short time, burning through their reserves of taxpayer funds until the hourglass drains their cash completely. But others have already shuttered for everyone not deemed “essential” by their agencies.

While Social Security checks, mail, student loan bills and funds for Ukraine will still be delivered, millions of workers are set to suffer financial hardship — at least among those who still have jobs after months of deep staffing cuts and a deferred resignation program. If you’re making plans to visit the magnificent national parks, you’re good to get in — just don’t expect to see many, if any, staff clearing trails or cleaning toilets. Click below for information on flying, student loans, defense spending, healthcare, food safety and more.

Read more at Politico

What The Economic Data Blackout From The Shutdown Means For The Federal Reserve

As if the Federal Reserve’s job isn’t complicated enough, the shutdown in Washington, D.C., is about to make things worse. The government ceased operations at midnight, meaning government economic reports, including the nonfarm payrolls report due out Friday, will not be released. Fed officials essentially will lose access to some of the most important tools they use to figure out their next moves on monetary policy. With their next meeting just four weeks away, the timing is not good. With the Fed inherently data dependent, not getting the kind of information policymakers rely on makes the job of deciding where interest rates should be set more complicated.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ September jobs report will be the first test. It is generally considered the last word on the labor market. Labor Department officials have said economic data will neither be collected nor released as long as the shutdown continues. Fed officials, then, will have to look elsewhere, making reports like Wednesday’s private payrolls count from ADP considerably more important.  “There is a range of other kinds of data we also look at to try to understand labor markets, and we are exploring other ways of doing that,” Boston Fed President Susan Collins said at a conference talk Tuesday in New York moderated by CNBC’s Seema Mody. “Many of those are actually grounded in BLS data. So not having the BLS data over time can become problematic.”

Read more at CNBC

The Health Insurance Subsidies at the Center of the Government Shutdown Fight

Enhanced subsidies for Affordable Care Act health-insurance plans are set to expire at the end of the year—and what Congress decides to do about them could be crucial to any deal to end a government shutdown. While Republicans had pushed to temporarily extend current government funding levels to buy time for negotiations, Democrats have said they won’t vote for any bill that excludes an extension of the ACA subsidies.

Premium tax credits are a form of government subsidy that caps the maximum percentage of household income an individual pays toward their ACA health coverage. In 2021, the Biden administration expanded eligibility for the tax credits and increased subsidy amounts. The enhanced provisions eliminated the prior income cap for eligibility—400% of the federal poverty level of $32,150 for a family of four—and lowered the maximum percentage of income enrollees can be required to pay out of pocket. The enhanced subsidies were extended in 2022 under the Inflation Reduction Act, and are set to expire at the end of 2025. Here’s what else to know about the tax credits at the heart of the shutdown fight including how many people are using them and what happens when they expire.

Read more at the WSJ

Weight-Loss Drugs Now Linked To Cancer Protection In Women, Major New Study Reveals

New research has found that the weight loss and diabetes drugs — officially known as glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonists — are associated with a reduced risk of some cancers, especially in women. Researchers at Indiana University and the University of Florida analyzed the incidence of 14 cancers in adults with obesity who were prescribed GLP-1s, comparing them to cancer rates in non-users. The study, published in JAMA Oncology, examined health record data from 2014 to 2024 for adults over 18 who were eligible for anti-obesity medications and did not have a prior cancer history.

Of the 86,632 individuals sampled, 68.2% of whom were female, the results indicated a "significantly lower overall cancer risk" among those taking GLP-1s. Taking GLP-1s was particularly associated with a reduced risk of endometrial, ovarian and meningioma cancers. Although the results were mostly positive, the study did find an association between GLP-1 use and an increased risk of kidney cancer, the researchers noted.

Read more at Fox News

Upcoming Council Programs

Events

2025 Annual Luncheon - November 21, 2025 -11:00 AM Expo, 12:00 Lunch. The Grandview, Poughkeepsie.

TOMORROW! Mfg. Day 2025 - Manufacturing Day will be taking place on Friday, October 3rd. Check out the Mfg Day website to learn more!

Networks

HR Sub Council Meeting Topic TBD, 8:15 - 11:00. Selux Corporation, Highland.

Insight Exchange On Demand Webinars

See previous episodes here!

Webinars and Seminars

Workshop - Identifying and Assessing Gaps in Envir. Health and Safety

In this interactive session attendees will learn how to identify compliance blind spots, drive cultural EHS growth, and make safety a core value in their facility. $45 per person. Presented by Walden Engineering. October 7, 8:30 - 11:30. iPark Fishkill.

Training

Introduction to Lean with Simulation - This full-day Lean Foundations course, led by Vin Buonomo from RIT CQAS, is designed as a starting point for those interested in Lean certification—including Yellow Belt and Green Belt. October 28, 2025 - Location TBD.

Lean Six Sigma: Yellow Belt - Yellow Belt is an approach to process improvement that merges the complementary concepts and tools from both Six Sigma and Lean approaches. 3 Full days - November 12, 13 & 14 - DCC Fishkill.

Trade Wars

 

NIST Publishes Cybersecurity Framework 2.0 Manufacturing Profile

The U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) has published Internal Report (IR) 8183 Revision 2, the Cybersecurity Framework Version 2.0 Manufacturing Profile, and opened a public comment period through Nov. 17, 2025. The framework is organized around the functional areas of the NIST Cybersecurity Framework 2.0, covering Govern, Identify, Protect, Detect, Respond, and Recover. These core functions serve as the foundation for prioritizing cybersecurity outcomes tailored to the manufacturing sector, enabling organizations to align their efforts with business needs, risk tolerance, and available resources.

The Manufacturing Profile provides a voluntary, risk-based approach for managing cybersecurity activities and reducing cyber risk to manufacturing systems. It is designed to enhance, but not replace, existing cybersecurity standards and industry guidelines. It provides a structured method for identifying opportunities to improve a manufacturing system’s cybersecurity posture. It also allows organizations to evaluate their ability to operate within acceptable risk levels and establishes a standardized approach to developing cybersecurity plans, ensuring ongoing assurance of system security.

Read more at Industrial Cyber

GM Q3 Sales Rise 8% On Growth In Both Gas And Electric Vehicles

General Motors said third quarter U.S. vehicle sales were up 8% from the like year-earlier quarter, on continued strength in both electric and gas-powered vehicles. GM set another EV sales record in Q3, with 66,501 deliveries. Industry-wide EV sales continued to surge as customers sought to take advantage of the $7,500 federal tax credit. GM’s year to date total EV sales in the U.S. year to date now stand at 144,668, up 105% from a year earlier.

GM leads the industry again in overall sales and continues to grow in gas-powered vehicles. GM’s crossovers and SUVs reached a new record in Q3. GMC Terrain, Chevrolet Equinox, Chevrolet Traverse, and Buick Envista all had their best-ever third quarter sales. GM is on track to lead the full-size pickup market for the 6th straight year – and to top the full-size SUV market for the 51st consecutive year. Sales for the year’s first three quarters were up 10% to 2.2 million vehicles, the best pace in a decade.

Read more at GM

EVs, Big SUVs Drive Ford Q3 U.S. Sales Up 8.2%

Sales of electric vehicles and large SUVs drove Ford Motor’s third-quarter sales up by 8.2%, the Detroit automaker reported Wednesday. Ford said sales of all-electric vehicles increased by 30.2% during the period to a new quarterly record of more than 30,600 units. Its “electrified” vehicles, including EVs and hybrids, increased 20% compared with the same period a year earlier. EV sales during the third quarter are expected to be a record, as buyers pulled ahead plans to purchase a new zero-emissions vehicle ahead federal EV incentives of up to $7,500 ending in September.

Sales of Ford’s SUVs increased nearly 10% during the quarter, including massive gains for its larger SUVs as well as the Mustang Mach E EV, which was up 51% from a year earlier. Ford CEO Jim Farley on Tuesday said he “wouldn’t be surprised” if sales of EVs fell from an industry market share of around 10% to 12% this month — which is expected to be a record — to 5% after the incentive program ends.

Read more at CNBC

Walmart Ditches Dyes, Other Artificial Ingredients in Its Food Brands

Walmart is taking the biggest step yet to overhaul ingredients used in America’s food supply. The country’s largest grocer said Wednesday that it was working to remove synthetic dyes from all its store-brand foods, including Great Value, Marketside, Freshness Guaranteed and Bettergoods. Walmart also plans to eliminate 30 other ingredients, ranging from certain artificial sweeteners to preservatives. U.S. consumers have shifted more of their food spending to store brands in recent years as they try to save money. Retailers are boosting investment in their in-house brands, with Walmart last year launching Bettergoods, a food line with trendy flavors and more natural ingredients.

Many big food companies are working to shift away from artificial ingredients in packaged goods, as the Trump administration and its “Make America Healthy Again” movement take aim at processed food. Walmart’s heft makes its plans likely to trigger further changes throughout the nation’s food-supply chain, from ingredient suppliers to other food makers and retailers. Great Value alone is one of the largest consumer brands in the country, with billions of dollars in sales each year.

Read more at the WSJ

Amazon Launches ‘Price-Conscious’ Grocery Brand with Most Products Under $5

Amazon on Wednesday expanded its private-label grocery lineup with the launch of a new brand aimed at “price-conscious” shoppers, with most products priced under $5. The brand is called Amazon Grocery and includes more than 1,000 items, ranging from dairy, fresh produce, meat and seafood to snacks and baking essentials, the company said in a release. Amazon said the new offering unites its Happy Belly and Amazon Fresh brands under one label.

The move comes as Amazon’s grocery business has been in flux. The company has continued to streamline its chain of Go cashierless convenience stores and Fresh supermarkets, announcing last week that it will close all of its locations in the U.K. At the same time, Amazon CEO Andy Jassy and other company executives have touted the success of sales of “everyday essentials” within its online grocery business, which refers to items such as canned goods, paper towels, dish soap and snacks.

Read more at CNBC

Gartner Study: Supply Chain Cybersecurity Grows Even More Challenging

As organizations increasingly recognize the importance of safeguarding supply chain operations, expectations for cybersecurity solutions have surged. However, several obstacles make effective cybersecurity protection challenging, including:

  • A lack of clarity around ownership and budget for identifying and managing cybersecurity risks.
  • The breadth of supply chain IT and cyber-physical systems that require protection.
  • The large number of multitier partners complicates visibility into and management of third-party cyber risk.
  • GenAI use among trading partners increases the risk of data breaches and intellectual property leakage.
  • Solutions force organizations to assemble multiple toolsets rather than rely on a single solution.
  • To manage third-party cyber risk, Mark Atwood, managing VP, research, with the Gartner supply chain practice emphasized the importance of CSCOs first collaborating with their organization's cybersecurity team. Together, both teams must define security specifications with high-value supply chain partners and then incorporate those specifications into contract requirements.

Read more at Material Handling & Logistics

Oil Extends Slide With Concerns Over OPEC+ Output and US Demand

Oil eased for a third day as traders weighed the prospect that OPEC+ may fast-track its output hikes along with building US stockpiles. West Texas Intermediate traded near $61 a barrel, after falling more than 5% in the previous two days. This weekend, the alliance is slated to discuss potentially lifting output in three monthly installments of 500,000 barrels a day to recoup market share, a delegate said, though OPEC said it doesn’t have plans to hike by that amount and talks haven’t started yet.

Adding to oversupply concerns, US oil reserves rose 1.8 million barrels last week, while inventories of gasoline and distillates also expanded, the Energy Information Administration reported. US gasoline consumption pulled back to a six-month low, leading futures to decline and raising concerns of near-term demand deterioration. Crude capped a back-to-back monthly drop in September, as an earlier round of OPEC+ supply hikes bolstered expectations that global output will run ahead of demand. While stockpiling by China — the world’s largest oil importer — has lent some support to prices in recent quarters, the International Energy Agency has predicted there’ll be a record surplus next year.

Read more at Yahoo Finance

               

Jane Goodall, Who Studied Chimpanzee Behavior for Decades in Africa, Dies at 91

Primatologist, conservationist, animal advocate, and educator Jane Goodall has died at age 91. The Jane Goodall Institute announced on October 1, 2025 that Goodall passed away of natural causes. Her early fieldwork observing chimpanzees at Gombe Stream Game Reserve, in Tanganyika (now Tanzania), unveiled a rich catalog of shared behaviors—social as well as emotional—between humans and apes. She was “the woman who redefined man,” her biographer, Dale Peterson, wrote.

As an untrained young woman in the summer of 1960, she first ventured into the forests of what is now Gombe National Park near Lake Tanganyika in Tanzania to study chimpanzees, equipped with little more than a notebook, a pair of binoculars and almost infinite patience. For five months, though, the wary creatures evaded her. In fact, no one had ever been able to study them at close hand. She established the Jane Goodall Institute in 1977 to continue her research. In 1991, she organized a youth service program called Jane Goodall’s Roots & Shoots that is active in more than 60 countries.

Read more at National Geographic

Quote of the Day

“Only if we understand, can we care. Only if we care, we will help. Only if we help, we shall be saved.”

Jane Goodall - English zoologistprimatologist and anthropologist from her Autobiography '40 Years at Gombe'. She died yesterday, October 1, 2025, aged 91.

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