Member Briefing April 13, 2026

Posted By: Harold King Daily Briefing,

US Factory Orders Unchanged In February For Second Straight Month

New orders for U.S. factory goods were unchanged for a second straight month ​in February as weak demand for commercial ‌aircraft offset gains elsewhere. The flat reading in February reported by the Commerce Department's Census Bureau on Friday ​was better than economists' expectations for a ​0.2% decline. Orders increased 3.7% year-on-year in ⁠February. Manufacturing, which accounts for 10.1% of the economy, was showing signs of recovery after being hammered by ​President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs. But the ​U.S.-Israeli war with Iran has sent oil prices surging by ‌more ⁠than 30%, which could stifle the recovery.

Commercial aircraft orders plunged 28.6%. But there were increases in orders for computers and electronic products, machinery, ​primary metals and ​fabricated ⁠metal products. The Census Bureau also reported that orders for non-defense capital goods ​excluding aircraft, which are seen as ​a measure ⁠of business spending plans on equipment, increased 0.7% in February instead of rising 0.6% as reported ⁠earlier ​this week. Shipments of these ​so-called core capital goods rose 1.0% instead of 0.9% as previously ​reported.

Read More at the Census Bureau

Inflation Numbers Show the Effects of Iran War on Prices

PCE = 2.8% Inflation Remains Sticky As US Headed to War In Iran

Core inflation held above the Federal Reserve’s target before the recent surge in energy prices, according to a key gauge released Thursday that offers the central bank a snapshot of conditions leading into the Iran war. The core personal consumption expenditures price index, which excludes food and energy, rose a seasonally adjusted 3% in February, the Commerce Department reported. The all-items headline inflation measure increased 2.8%. Both readings were in line with the Dow Jones consensus.

On a monthly basis, both core and headline prices rose 0.4%, also meeting forecasts. In addition to the inflation readings, the report also showed consumer spending up 0.5% on the month, while personal income fell 0.1%. Economists had expected spending to rise 0.6% with income up 0.4%. The inflation data covers the period before the war the U.S. and Israel launched against Iran, so it doesn’t reflect the massive surge in energy prices that took effect during the conflict. While the data is somewhat dated, it does provide a view of underlying conditions before the war. Fed officials generally look through those types of price surges, viewing them as temporary and not representative of broader trends. Read more at CNBC

CPI = 3.3% - US Consumer Prices Surge In March Driven by Higher Gasoline Costs

The Consumer Price Index jumped 0.9% last month, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Friday, the largest increase since June 2022, when prices soared in response to the Russia-Ukraine war. Consumer prices rose 0.3% in February. In the 12 months through March, the CPI advanced 3.3% after rising 2.4% in February. Last month's increase only showed the immediate effects of the oil price shock, which has also raised the cost of diesel. March's surge ​underscored the affordability challenges facing consumers.

Excluding ​the volatile food and energy components, the CPI rose 0.2% last month after climbing 0.2% in February. That translated to a year-on-year increase of 2.6% in the so-called core ‌CPI. The moderate ⁠rise after a 2.5% advance in February likely offers no comfort for officials at the U.S. central bank, with an acceleration expected in April as the secondary effects of the oil price shock filter through. In the months ahead, economists ⁠expect the Middle East conflict to lift core prices through expensive jet fuel that will raise airline fares, and diesel, which will increase the cost of goods transported by road. Prices of fertilizer and plastics, among ​other goods, are also expected to rise. Read more at the WSJ

US Consumer Sentiment Dives To A Record Low In April Amid Iran War

U.S. consumer sentiment plunged to a record low in early April and consumers anticipated a ​surge in inflation in the next 12 ‌months, a survey showed on Friday. The University of Michigan's Surveys of Consumers said its Consumer Sentiment Index tumbled to ​an all-time low of 47.6 this month ​from a final reading of 53.3 in ⁠March. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the ​index easing to 52.0. The deterioration in sentiment was across ​age, income and political party affiliation, though the survey noted that almost all the responses came before a ceasefire ​agreement earlier this week in the U.S.-Israeli ​war with Iran.

The survey's measure of consumer expectations for inflation over the next year jumped to 4.8% this month ⁠from ​3.8% in March. Consumers' expectations for ​inflation over the next five years rose to 3.4% from 3.2% last ​month.

Read more at the Reuters

Iran and the Middle East

Ukraine

Other World Headlines

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US Court Of International Trade Considers Challenge To Trump’s 10% Global Tariffs

The US Court of International Trade pressed Justice Department lawyers during oral arguments on Friday on a legal challenge to President Trump’s 10% global tariffs. The lawsuit, brought by 24 mostly Democratic-led states like Oregon as well as small businesses, opposes the new levies imposed after the Supreme Court struck down Trump’s so-called “reciprocal” duties. The plaintiffs alleged that the revised tariffs were implemented under a different law than the one at issue in the high court’s Feb. 20 decision: the International Emergency Economic Powers Act.

The three-judge panel declined to issue an immediate ruling, but a decision favoring the plaintiffs would likely prompt an immediate appeal by the Department of Justice, potentially returning the case to the Supreme Court. Much of Friday’s trade court hearing centered on the Trump administration’s and the plaintiffs’ definitions of “balance-of-payments deficit.” Lawyers for the states, as well as the spice importer Burlap and Barrel, Inc., and the toy company Basic Fun Inc. argued against a broad interpretation of the statute.

Read More at The NY Post

NASA Sets Its Sights On Artemis III Following Astronauts' Historic Moon Flyby

Never-before-glimpsed views of the moon's far side. Check. Total solar eclipse gracing the lunar scene. Check. New distance record for humanity. Check. With NASA's lunar comeback a galactic-sized smash thanks to Artemis II, the world is wondering: What's next? And how do you top that? Now that the first lunar travelers in more than a half-century are safely back in Houston with their families, NASA has Artemis III in its sights. "The next mission's right around the corner," entry flight director Rick Henfling observed following the crew's Pacific splashdown on Friday.

In a mission recently added to the docket for next year, Artemis III's yet-to-be -named astronauts will practice docking their Orion capsule with a lunar lander or two in orbit around Earth. Elon Musk's SpaceX and Jeff Bezos' Blue Origin are racing to have their company's lander ready first. Musk's Starship and Bezos' Blue Moon are vying for the all-important Artemis IV moon landing in 2028. Two astronauts will aim for the south polar region, the preferred location for Isaacman's envisioned $20 billion to $30 billion moon base. Vast amounts of ice are almost certainly hidden in permanently shadowed craters there — ice that could provide water and rocket fuel.

Read more at PBS

DiNapoli: Despite Third Straight Year of State Workforce Expansion, OT Costs Increased by $1.6 Billion in 2025

New York State agency overtime costs increased 22.7% in 2025 for a total of $1.6 billion, while the number of overtime hours increased by 5.9%, or 1.4 million hours, higher than the previous year, according to the annual report issued today by State Comptroller Thomas P. DiNapoli examining state agencies’ overtime and workforce trends. The size of the state workforce, not including SUNY and CUNY, grew for a third straight year in 2025 increasing by 2.7%, or 4,139 positions, from 2024, to an average annual total of 155,448.

Overtime hours and earnings have continued to surge at the Department of Corrections and Community Supervision (Corrections), growing by 1.3 million hours and $264 million in 2025, the most of any agency. The agency experienced a 29.8% decrease in workforce since 2020 when there were 8,544 more employees than in 2025. Between 2024 and 2025, the Corrections workforce decreased by over 2,700 while overtime hours per employee grew 32.7% to reach an average of 432 hours – nearly triple what it was in 2020. These figures were influenced by the strike by some Corrections employees that took place between Feb. 17, 2025 and March 10, 2025.

Read more at The Comptroller’s Website

More Policy and Politics Headlines

Cannabis May Make You Remember Things That Never Happened

Most people think of cannabis as something that makes memories fuzzy. But new research suggests it can do something more surprising: make false memories feel real. While cannabis is often associated with forgetfulness, a new study suggests that acute cannabis intoxication can also subtly distort memory, shaping not just what we recall, but how accurately we recall it. The findings expand on decades of research on cannabis and recall, pointing to a more complex effect on the brain’s memory systems. Although THC can produce desired effects such as euphoria, pain relief, and nausea control, it may also disrupt other processes, including memory formation.

In the 2026 study, author Carrie Cuttler, an associate professor and director of the Health and Cognition Lab at Washington State University and her co-author randomly assigned 120 cannabis users to vaporize a placebo or doses of THC (20 or 40 milligrams). Participants were then given 21 memory tests, many of which had not previously been studied in relation to cannabis. About 70 percent showed some level of impairment, including temporal order memory (remembering the sequence of events) and source memory (identifying where information came from). False memory and source memory showed the largest effect of cannabis. False memories don’t come from nowhere—they emerge when the brain tries to make sense of incomplete information. When encoding is disrupted, fewer details are accurately stored. Later, during retrieval, the brain doesn’t simply “play back” a memory—it reconstructs it. And when information is missing, it may fill in the gaps with general knowledge or familiar patterns.

Read more at National Geographic

Upcoming Council Programs

Events

Manufacturing Champions Award Breakfast and Workforce Developers Expo - Thursday May 7, 2026 -7:45 - 10:00 AM. West Hills Country Club, Middletown.

Networks

The Council of Industry and Marist University Executive Discussion - Assessing the current state of AI adoption across organizations. April 14, 11:30 - 1:30 via zoom.

HR Sub Council Meeting Topic TBD, April 23, 2026, 8:15 - 11:00 AM. Location Ulster BOCES Career Academy, iPark 87, Kingston.

Insight Exchange - On Demand Webinars

Training

Certificate in Manufacturing Leadership Program Spring Session, In Person at iPark 87 in Kingston. Supervisor Training Program for Hudson Valley Manufacturers. 7 Courses (8 full day sessions) April 29 - July 15.

Trade Wars

'The Plan Is Working': Trump's Trade Chief Brushes Off Economic Fears In Rust Belt Tour – Politico

China's Factories Snap Years-Long Deflation Spell On Iran War Price Shock - Reuters

Trump’s Latest Tariffs Face Trade Court Showdown – The Hill

Australia And US Boost Support For Critical Minerals With $3.5 Billion – Reuters

Anthropic Says New AI Model Too Dangerous For Public Release

Anthropic announced this week it will hold back the full release of its new AI model because it believes it is too dangerous for the public at this stage. The model, called Claude Mythos Preview, will be available to a select group of technology firms, including Microsoft, Apple, CrowdStrike and Amazon Web Services, along with more than 40 organizations that build critical software infrastructure, the AI firm announced Tuesday. This consortium is part of Anthropic’s new initiative Project Glasswing, which will focus on identifying and patching security vulnerabilities in critical software programs. The company said the initiative was formed after the company discovered the capabilities of Mythos Preview, stating the model “could reshape cybersecurity.”

The AI firm claimed Mythos Preview already found thousands of high-security vulnerabilities, including some in every major operating system and web browser, that were previously unknown to the software’s developers. Some of these vulnerabilities date back more than two decades, according to Anthropic. Prior to AI models like Mythos, these vulnerabilities could go undetected for years given the limited security expertise on the topic. Now, the technology is providing opportunities for hackers and foreign adversaries to more easily detect these vulnerabilities. Glasswing’s partner companies will use Mythos Preview in their defensive security work and findings will be shared by Anthropic for the whole industry. The organizations that build or maintain critical software infrastructure will use the model to scan first-party and open-source systems, Anthropic said.

Read more at The Hill

CoreWeave Strikes Multi-Year Deal To Power Anthropic's Claude AI Models

CoreWeave and Anthropic have signed a multi-year agreement, under which the cloud infrastructure company will provide compute to support the development and deployment of Anthropic's Claude family of AI models, CoreWeave said Friday. The capacity will come online starting later this year. Under the agreement, Anthropic will run workloads at production scale on CoreWeave's cloud platform. Infrastructure will be brought online in stages, the companies said, leaving room for the arrangement to grow beyond its initial scope. Financial terms were not disclosed.

"AI is no longer just about infrastructure, it's about the platforms that turn models into real-world impact," CoreWeave CEO Michael Intrator said in a statement. "We're excited to work with Anthropic at the center of where models are put to work and performance in production shows up." The CoreWeave agreement adds to a busy stretch for the cloud provider. Just 24 hours before the Anthropic announcement, Meta $META -0.53% had agreed to direct an additional $21 billion toward CoreWeave, according to CNBC, layering on top of a $14.2 billion commitment the social media company had made previously.

Read more at Quartz

Meta, CoreWeave Deepen AI Cloud Partnership With Fresh $21 Billion Deal

Meta Platforms is deepening its CoreWeave partnership ‌with a fresh $21 billion deal for additional cloud computing capacity, as it rushes to catch up with rivals in the high-stakes artificial intelligence race after an underwhelming AI model release last year. The latest ​deal, which extends through December 2032, is in addition to a similar $14.2 billion ​agreement signed in September, CoreWeave said on Thursday.

Meta has been rapidly expanding compute capacity to power the development and deployment ​of its large language models, benefiting companies such as CoreWeave, which provides clients with ​hardware and cloud resources. Close Nvidia ties have made CoreWeave a key supplier of the specialized AI chips that large tech companies are scrambling to secure. Thursday's deal gives Meta access to initial deployments of ​Nvidia's next-generation Vera Rubin chips, which are twice as fast as the current generation ​Blackwell platform.

Read more at Reuters

Volvo’s Global Sales Slump 11% In Q1, In Spite Of 12% Jump In EV Sales

Volvo Cars’ global vehicle sales dropped 11% in the first quarter of 2026, the company announced in an April 2 release. The automaker sold 153,316 units globally in Q1, down from 172,219 in the same period last year. Volvo’s European and rest of world region sales, which excludes Greater China and the Americas, reached 95,335 vehicles in Q1, a 2% YoY decline. Total vehicle sales in the Americas region decreased by 28% to 29,651 units, with sales of electrified models falling by 30% and sales of PHEVs declining by 36%. The automaker cited the loss of incentives on EV and PHEV purchases for the declines.

However, fully electric vehicles provided one bright spot, with global sales rising 12% year over year in Q1 to 36,348 units compared to 32,449 in the same period last year. Globally, electrified models represented 47.3% of all cars sold in Q1, becoming the highest among legacy premium carmakers, according to Volvo. Fully electric vehicles accounted for 23.7% of all Volvo Cars global sales in Q1, while the share of plug-in hybrid models accounted for 23.6%. “Fully electric cars remain the key growth driver for Volvo Cars and for the industry, reinforcing our strategy to grow and emerge as a leader in the premium fully electric car segment,” said Erik Severinson, Volvo Cars chief commercial officer, in a statement.

Read more at Ward’s Auto

Diageo Supplier To Idle 2 Kentucky Whiskey Distilleries

MGP Ingredients, a manufacturer of spirits and a supplier to giants like Diageo, will idle two Kentucky distilleries as sluggish consumption has created an alcohol surplus. The distiller said it will halt distilling operations at its Limestone Branch Distillery in Lebanon and Lux Row Distillers in Bardstown beginning May 1. The pause will last until “inventory levels support additional production,” which the company estimated would take at least one year. The halt in production will also result in 33 layoffs across the two facilities. Warehousing, bottling and barrel programs will continue.

As a surplus builds, whiskey and bourbon makers are now scaling back production. Spirits giant Suntory enacted a 12-month pause at Jim Beam’s main Kentucky facility this year. Competitors Diageo and Brown-Forman have also announced cutbacks. Production of distilled spirits fell 28% during the first eight months of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, according to an economic assessment prepared for the Kentucky Distillers Association. “The American whiskey market continues to be structurally oversupplied, with excess capacity and elevated inventory,” Julie Francis, president and CEO of MGP Ingredients, said in a statement.

Read more at Supply Chain Dive

Over 1,300 Winchester Workers Strike At Army Ammunition Plant In Missouri

Approximately 1,350 workers went on strike on April 4 at chemical manufacturer Olin’s ammunitions plant in Independence, Missouri, after they rejected the company’s proposed contract, according to an International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers press release. Workers at the Lake City Army ammunition plant are represented by IAM Local 778. Details of Olin’s offer were not disclosed, but the Machinists union said in the press release that the company “failed to produce an offer that IAM Union members deemed fair on key issues, including wages, mandatory overtime and work-life balance.”

The Independence facility is operated by Olin’s subsidiary, Winchester, producing small arms cartridges ***such as including*** the 5.56mm, 7.62mm and .50 Caliber for the U.S. military, according to the company’s website. Specifically, it supplies the majority of rounds for the U.S. Army, Air Force and Marine Corps, according to the union’s fact sheet. In February 2025, the Army broke ground on an upcoming 6.8mm ammunition production facility at the Lake City Army site, which the service branch said will “play a vital role in advancing” its modernization priorities.

Read more at Manufacturing Dive

Navy Missile Request Highlights Industrial Base Challenges

The Navy is asking for nearly $8 billion for the purchase of 785 additional Tomahawk Land Attack Missiles ($3 billion) and 540 Standard Missile-6 air defense munitions ($4.33 billion). The request is vastly higher than the number of the same munitions the Navy purchased last year, highlighting the vastly increased demand for the two munitions caused by the present conflict in Iran. The Navy is also asking for 494 AIM-120 Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missiles (AMRAAM) ($804 million) and 141 MK-48 heavyweight torpedoes ($571 million) as part of a wider munition stocks buildup.

The US defense industrial base manufactures around 90 Tomahawk missiles per year. But that is not enough in today’s active operational environment. Indeed, it is estimated that in the past four years, the US military has gone through nearly 15 years’ worth of Tomahawk stockpiles. This was even before the current conflict, in which the United States has fired around 850 Tomahawk missiles—more than nine years’ production—in a single month. The Department of Defense has been urging the defense industry to increase its production capacity of key munitions, including the Tomahawk, SIM-6, and Patriot PAC-3 interceptor. It is a national security necessity that the industry meets the demand quickly and efficiently. 

Read more at National Interest

Tech Industry Lays Off Nearly 80,000 Employees In The First Quarter Of 2026 — Almost 50% Of Affected Positions Cut Due To AI

78,557 workers in the tech industry have reportedly been laid off from January 1 to April 2026, with more than 76% of the affected positions located in the U.S. Nikkei Asia reports that 37,638 of these cuts, or 47.9%, have been attributed to the reduced need for human workers because of AI and workflow automation. Despite that, Cognizant Chief AI Officer Babak Hodjat says that it will still take more than a year before we completely see the impact of modern AI technologies on the workforce.

Despite all these analyses, some experts are pushing back against this narrative, pointing out that AI-driven layoffs were just being used as an excuse for poor business performance. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said during the India AI Impact Summit, “I don’t know what the exact percentage is, but there’s some AI washing where people are blaming AI for layoffs that they would otherwise do, and then there’s some real displacement by AI of different kinds of jobs.” While they say that some of these layoffs would still happen with or without AI, there’s still a consensus that the technology would have an impact on jobs and that we should be ready for a disruption.

Read More at Tom’s Hardware

Delta’s Ace in the Hole for Surging Jet Fuel Costs: Its Own Refinery

Airlines face billions of dollars of pain at the fuel pump. One carrier, though, happens to own its own gas station. Since 2012, Delta Air Lines has been the owner of a Pennsylvania refinery that processes crude into fuel. Over the years, the investment has looked like either a stroke of genius or a boondoggle, generally depending on the price of oil. Since the U.S. and Israel began carrying out strikes on Iran, the refinery is set to pay off again for Delta.

Jet-fuel prices roughly doubled since late February, climbing to about $4.80 a gallon in the U.S. earlier this week, according to Argus. Deutsche Bank analysts estimate that if prices stay at those levels, airlines collectively would be on the hook for $40 billion more in fuel spending this year compared with what they were paying before the war began. Delta isn’t immune. It expects its fuel bill to balloon by $2 billion in the second quarter. But with its refinery, Delta has an asset that it said can help it offset some of the recent surge in fuel prices. The airline said the refinery will boost its expected second-quarter earnings by $300 million.

Read more at the WSJ

Daily Market Update Apr 10, 2026

The May ’26 natural gas contract is trading up $0.01 at $2.67. The May ‘26 crude oil contract is up $0.03 at $97.91

Read more at NRG

Learn more about the Council of Industry Energy Buying Group

Quote of the Day

“I'm a greater believer in luck, and I find the harder I work the more I have of it.”

Thomas Jefferson - American Founding Father and its third President who was born on thed say in 1743.

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