Member Briefing April 9, 2026

Posted By: Harold King Daily Briefing,

Fed Minutes Show Officials See Dual-Sided Risks From Iran War

Minutes from the Federal Reserve's March 17–18 meeting show that policymakers were divided over how a prolonged conflict in the Middle East could affect inflation and the path of interest rates, with some officials raising the possibility of rate increases while others continued to favor cuts. The minutes show the internal tension clearly. Many participants pointed to the risk of inflation staying elevated longer than expected amid a persistent rise in oil prices — a scenario that, they said, could call for rate increases to bring inflation back to the Fed's 2% target. At the same time, most participants raised the concern that a drawn-out conflict could weigh on hiring, reduce household purchasing power, and slow global growth — which would argue for cuts.

Most participants said it was too early to assess the war's full economic impact and favored monitoring the situation before adjusting policy. A quarter-point reduction was preferred by Governor Stephen Miran, the lone dissenter, who argued that policy was still too tight and was putting downward pressure on employment. All participants agreed that monetary policy was not on a preset course and would be determined on a meeting-by-meeting basis. The committee's next meeting is scheduled for April 28–29, 2026.

Read more at Quartz

Wall Street Is Whiffing on Its Economic Forecasts

If it feels like economists have been slumping lately, it’s not just your imagination. With three chances so far in 2026 to project monthly job creation, Wall Street’s soothsayers have struck out. To be fair, they’ve been thrown some major curveballs. In a fast-changing labor market, the Trump administration’s immigration crackdown has cut population growth, downshifting job creation to a trend that can land on either side of zero in any given month. Strikes and bad weather have caused labor-market hiccups this year. And technical changes have made the official calculations less predictable than they used to be.

Nailing economic forecasts can be a high-stakes game for financial-industry economists, whose clients include short-term traders making big bets on daily market moves. When the official government numbers land, stock and bond prices instantly adjust to the new clues about not only how the economy is doing, but also how the Federal Reserve is likely to respond. Economists’ next chance to forecast a marquee stat comes on Friday in March’s inflation figures. The Journal’s consensus forecast projects that consumer prices rose by 0.9% last month, a big jump caused by the Iran war’s jolt to energy prices from the 0.3% increase in February.

Read more at the WSJ

Homebuyer Mortgage Demand Drops Annually For The First Time In Over A Year, As War Fuels Uncertainty

Mortgage rates finally ticked a tiny bit lower last week, but not enough to help the ailing mortgage market. Economic uncertainty, fueled by the Iran war, is keeping rates elevated and homebuyers on the fence. As a result, total mortgage application volume fell 0.8% last week compared with the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances, $832,750 or less, decreased to 6.51% from 6.57%, with points falling to 0.61 from 0.65, including the origination fee, for loans with a 20% down payment. Applications for a mortgage to purchase a home rose 1% for the week but were 7% lower than the same week one year ago. That was the first year-over-year decline since January 2025. Applications to refinance a home loan dropped 3% for the week and were 4% lower than the same week one year ago. That was also the first year-over-year decline for refinances since January 2025.

Read More at CNBC

Iran and the Middle East

Ukraine

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Hochul’s Car Insurance Proposal Fueling Budget Standstill

Gov. Kathy Hochul’s push to reform the state’s car insurance laws as part of the week-late state budget appears to be at a standstill in Albany, as representatives from the state’s trucking industry gathered nearby and offered support for her plan, often viewed strictly in the context of personal policyholders. The car insurance battle is proving to be a tough one to overcome in a year when state lawmakers appear to be giving Hochul a bit more leeway as she battles for her policy agenda.

Deputy state Senate Majority Leader Mike Gianaris told reporters that “baby steps” have been made in reaching a consensus around Hochul’s push to change the state’s 2019 climate law, with little to no progress on her proposal to change New York’s environmental quality review process in a bid to spur housing development — and not much progress at all has been made on the car insurance issue. “One of the reasons we haven’t made a lot of progress is we keep asking for data to justify the claim that fraud is driving higher insurance rates,” he said. Hochul’s office fired back, urging lawmakers to take a closer look at the basics. “The numbers are clear. There has been an 80% increase in suspected auto insurance fraud over the last five years, and when fraud goes unchecked, everyone pays the price,” a spokesperson said.

Read more at New York State of Politics

What’s Next for the U.S. Economy After Iran Cease-Fire

The fragile, two-week cease-fire involving the U.S., Israel and Iran is welcome news for the U.S. economy—but don’t expect an immediate return to normal. In recent weeks, soaring gasoline prices and climbing mortgage rates pinched consumers already unhappy about the high cost of living. Rising energy and transportation costs squeezed businesses. As the war hit stocks, household wealth fell, threatening to dent consumer spending. Some economists even started worrying about a recession.

Now, the outlook is brighter. Americans woke up Wednesday slightly richer—the S&P 500 is up 2.5% since news of the cease-fire—and they can expect to eventually pay less at the pump. Benchmark U.S. oil prices fell 16% on Wednesday to $94.41 a barrel. Still, economists caution that the war’s economic fallout won’t be undone overnight. From fuel cost to mortgage rates, food prices, interest rates and housing costs, economists see a slow return to pre-conflict conditions.

Read more at The WSJ

Read more at The Hill

Trump Again Proposes Eliminating Manufacturing Extension Partnership

President Donald Trump’s initial budget proposal for fiscal year 2027 eliminates funding for the Manufacturing Extension Partnership, which supports small and medium-sized U.S. manufacturers looking to grow or improve their operations. The cuts to the MEP program, which is managed by the National Institute of Standards and Technology, are part of a broader proposed $993 million NIST budget reduction that would also eliminate its Circular Economy Program. According to the proposal, the MEP is “an underperforming and unnecessary program that has failed to accelerate America’s manufacturers’ ability to compete in the 21st Century and instead turned its attention to promoting DEI as a solution to the decline in American manufacturing.”

The MEP Program comprises about 1,400 advisors and experts, 475 service locations and more than 2,100 partners. It was created in 1988 and signed into law by former President Ronald Reagan as part of the Omnibus Trade and Competitiveness Act. The program has helped manufacturers in a variety of ways, according to NIST. For example, in fiscal year 2024, NIST said the MEP achieved $15 billion in new and retained sales, $5 billion in new client investments and $2.6 billion in cost savings, along with creating or retaining more than 108,000 jobs. Despite Trump’s view of the program, many lawmakers have expressed support for it.

Read More at Manufacturing Dive

More Policy and Politics Headlines

Long Covid Predicted to Cost OECD Economies $135 Billion a Year

Long covid will cost Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries $11bn (£8.3bn; €9.5bn) a year over the next decade, a new report warns. The report by the OECD on the healthcare costs of long covid details how the pandemic “continues to cast a long shadow” five years on. The $11bn estimate is based on a projected 0.6-1.0% of the OECD population continuing to be affected by the disorder between 2025 and 2035 and encompasses the cost of treatment. At the peak of the pandemic in 2021 more than 5% of the OECD population, or around 75 million people, were estimated to have long covid, and healthcare costs were up to $53bn for that year, the report says.

The report’s authors warn, however, that the indirect costs to the wider economy—by damaging workforce participation—will likely to “far outweigh” the $11bn estimate. The report forecasts losses of between 0.1 and 0.2 per cent of GDP, amounting to a total loss of $135 billion annually across all OECD countries, in scenarios where “low or moderate” residual coronavirus transmission led to ongoing new cases.

Read more at Irish Times

Upcoming Council Programs

Events

Manufacturing Champions Award Breakfast and Workforce Developers Expo - Thursday May 7, 2026 -7:45 - 10:00 AM. West Hills Country Club, Middletown.

Networks

The Council of Industry and Marist University Executive Discussion - Assessing the current state of AI adoption across organizations. April 14, 11:30 - 1:30 via zoom.

HR Sub Council Meeting Topic TBD, April 23, 2026, 8:15 - 11:00 AM. Location Ulster BOCES Career Academy, iPark 87, Kingston.

Insight Exchange - On Demand Webinars

Training

Certificate in Manufacturing Leadership Program Spring Session, In Person at iPark 87 in Kingston. Supervisor Training Program for Hudson Valley Manufacturers. 7 Courses (8 full day sessions) April 29 - July 15.

Trade Wars

Another Chip Shortage Is on the Horizon

AI's rapid expansion increases demand for high-performance memory, especially HBM, leading to supply shortages and price hikes across the industry. Shifting focus to HBM fabrication risks causing shortages in traditional memory like DRAM, impacting devices such as smartphones and computers. Memory chip prices have surged, with some Samsung chips increasing up to 60%, and product costs for smartphones and laptops expected to rise significantly.

The current shortage represents a structural shift, driven by AI's pervasive integration, unlike previous pandemic-related supply disruptions. Companies must adopt strategic supply chain management tactics, including risk assessment and backup sourcing, to navigate ongoing shortages. For manufacturers that rely upon memory chips as inputs to their products, a strategic orientation to procurement and supply chain management is needed.

Read more at IndustryWeek

US Commercial Service’s Export Week Features A Series Of Export Tradecraft Programs

In celebration of World Trade Month, the U.S. Commercial Service will host a number of export sessions during the first week of May as well as throughout the month! The sessions, led by both private and public sector experts, will feature tradecraft programs and industry focused opportunities. Many of the programs are being offered free of charge and you can choose as many as you’d like to attend. Whether you are new-to-export or an experienced exporter, Export Week will provide valuable information on forward thinking strategies and invaluable resources to increase your global sales.

Export Week Kicks-Off with “Navigating Export Resources for U.S. Manufacturers,” Discover how U.S. manufacturers can tap into federal export resources, trade counseling, market intelligence, and global connections to expand internationally. Monday, May 4, 2026, 11:00am-12:00pm. There is no charge for this virtual session.

Register and learn more at the Commerce Department

Apple’s Foldable iPhone Is On Track To Launch In September, Report Says

Apple’s first foldable iPhone is on track to debut in September alongside the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max, according to a new report from Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman. The news follows a report from Nikkei Asia on Tuesday that raised concerns the company’s foldable iPhone could be delayed due to challenges during the phone’s engineering test phase. Gurman reports that while the device’s complexity may limit initial supply, Apple is still aiming to launch the phone at roughly the same time as or shortly after the non-foldable models.

The launch of a foldable iPhone will be a major move for Apple, as it will allow the tech giant to better compete with foldable models from Samsung and China-based smartphone makers, which have long offered foldable phones. Apple’s device is said to have a few advantages over current foldable phones, as the tech giant has reportedly resolved issues with screen quality and overall durability, along with making the crease less visible when the device is unfolded.

Read more at Defense Scoop

Taking The Jobs Humans Don’t Want: The Ironic Promise Of The Humanoid Robot

Robots in car factories are nothing new. General Motors started using them in the 1960s and they’ve been around for over half a century. Every auto plant today has hundreds of them. But humanoid robots are on a different plane altogether. I guarantee that once you see them in action, you’ll begin wondering about how many factory jobs they’ll eliminate. Up to now, robots have been used to replace humans in dangerous, dirty and repetitive jobs. No one who did those jobs in the past ever complained about a robot taking their job.

Humanoid robot makers, like Boston Dynamics, argue that humanoids will actually create more jobs, not eliminate them. They point out that humanoids use all kinds of electric motors and sensors, and that the bodies are made from castings, moldings and stampings. They also need to be trained, repaired and serviced. And that’s why the robot companies say they will create more jobs. However, as one Tier 1 CEO recently said, a humanoid robot will pay for itself in two years, even if it costs $250,000. “One robot can replace two workers because it can work two shifts a day,” he pointed out. Even more, humanoids don’t need bathroom breaks, don’t take vacations, are never absent or late, and don’t get sick.

Read more at Ward’s Auto

US’ Largest Shipbuilder Teams With GrayMatter Robotics On Physical AI

Military shipbuilder HII on Monday said it will collaborate with GrayMatter Robotics to begin integrating physical artificial intelligence into its shipbuilding operations. The companies signed a memorandum of understanding to explore ways to accelerate throughput, strengthen the maritime industrial base and augment HII’s shipbuilding workforce. GrayMatter’s technology will primarily focus on automating HII’s surface preparation, coating and inspection processes, according to a news release. The companies did not disclose financial details around their partnership.

In recent years, HII has “invested heavily” in automation technologies deployed at its shipyards in Newport News, Virginia and Pascagoula, Mississippi, Chewning said. However, the technologies are “limited to largely repeatable” shipbuilding activities. “There is a broader set of industrial use cases where we need a single robot to do 100,000 tasks just once,” Eric Chewning, executive vice president of maritime systems and corporate strategy, said on a press call Monday, “And that, for physical AI, is a game-changer.”

Read more at CNBC

Why McCormick’s $65 Billion Deal Might Actually Work Out

Big food mergers typically sound great on paper but look terrible in reality.  The deals often saddle the merged company with complexity, stagnant brands and crushing debt. So when Unilever announced an agreement last week to combine its food business with McCormick in a deal creating a $65 billion behemoth, investors sold off the stocks of both companies. Still, this deal could be the exception to the rule.

The deal’s structure reveals why. It is being done as a Reverse Morris Trust, which lets a company shed a business unit without triggering a towering tax bill. In this case, the Unilever food business will be spun off to its own shareholders before merging with McCormick. The approach avoids selling the unwanted unit outright, which could generate a large taxable gain. The newly formed company will be helmed by McCormick’s management. To enable the tax-free route, however, the original parent company’s shareholders must end up owning more than 50% of the newly merged company. In this deal, Unilever and its shareholders will own about 65% of the combined foods business, while McCormick shareholders will own 35%. Unilever itself will continue to exist as a personal care, well-being and beauty company.

Read more at The WSJ

General Dynamics secures $450M ARV contract

General Dynamics Land Systems has secured a $450 million agreement from the United States Marine Corps for the next development phase of its Advanced Reconnaissance Vehicle. The award covers the pre-production development phase, in which the company will finalize the vehicle’s design and build several examples from part of the planned ARV family for government testing. Those vehicles will then undergo a series of U.S. government test and evaluation activities as the Marine Corps continues to assess the platform before making longer-term procurement decisions.

The contract advances one of the Marine Corps’ central ground modernization efforts as it works to replace older reconnaissance vehicles with a more modern platform built for today’s operating environment. The need has grown more urgent as the service reshapes itself for distributed and expeditionary operations, particularly in coastal and island settings where mobility, sensing, and communications are increasingly critical.

Read more at Defence Blog (Poland)

Deere & Co Agrees To Pay $99 Million To Settle ‘Right To Repair’ Lawsuit

Deere & Co. has agreed to pay $99 million as part of a settlement that would resolve a class action lawsuit accusing the farm equipment giant of monopolizing repair services. The manufacturer has faced a handful of “right to repair” complaints over the years. The deal announced Monday — which still needs final approval from the court — would settle a 2022 lawsuit that accused the company of withholding repair software and conspiring with authorized dealers to force farmers to use their services for repairs, when they could otherwise fix tractors and other equipment themselves or use independent alternatives.

Deere has continued to deny any wrongdoing, and maintained Monday it’s dedicated to supporting customers’ ability and access needed to repair their equipment. But the company agreed to the settlement “to move forward and remain focused on what matters most — serving our customers,” Denver Caldwell, vice president of aftermarket and customer support, said in a statement. Under the proposed agreement, filed in federal court in Illinois, the $99 million would go into a settlement fund for class members who paid Deere or its authorized dealers for large agriculture equipment repairs between Jan. 10, 2018 until the date of the deal’s preliminary approval.

Read more at AP

The Many American Manufacturers Represented On Artemis II

or the first time since 1972, humans have returned to deep space. And, with each of the 695,081 miles that the Orion spacecraft travels in its 10-day journey around the moon and back, the Artemis II mission showcases the marvels of American manufacturing. Moreover, testing that manufacturing is a primary objective for the mission, which serves as a stepping stone to establishing the moon as a foundation for crewed missions to Mars.

Though the Orion is primarily built by contractor Lockheed Martin and the bulk of the spacecraft’s welding took place at NASA’s Michoud Assembly Facility in New Orleans, La., a constellation of hundreds of suppliers nationwide contributed to both the Orion and the materials used by the Artemis II crew. Here’s a snapshot of just a few of the U.S. manufacturers who’ve had a hand in the historic Artemis II mission from the Alliance for American Manufacturing.

Read more at the Alliance For American Manufacturing

Daily Market Update Apr 08, 2026

The May ’26 natural gas contract is trading down $0.10 at $2.77. The May ‘26 crude oil contract is down $20.35 at $92.60. 

Read more at NRG

Learn more about the Council of Industry Energy Buying Group

Quote of the Day

“The longer I live the more beautiful life becomes. If you foolishly ignore beauty, you will soon find yourself without it. Your life will be impoverished. But if you invest in beauty, it will remain with you all the days of your life.”

Frank Lloyd Wright - American Architect who died on this day in 1959.

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