Member Briefing April 24, 2025
S&P Global: US Manufacturing PMI Surprises on the Upside, Overall Activity Down
The S&P Global U.S. Composite PMI slid to 51.2 (flash estimate) in April from 53.5 in the prior month, according to data released on Wednesday.The preliminary April reading signaled a 16-month low in national business activity growth, as service sector business activity expanded at the second-slowest pace over the past year.
- Manufacturing PMI: 50.7 vs. 49.0 consensus and 50.2 in March.
- Services PMI: 51.4 vs. 52.8 expected and 54.4 prior.
- Prices charged for goods and services increased sharply this month, especially for manufactured items, due to new tariffs.
- Factory production bounced back in April after a short dip the previous month,
- New orders grew more robustly than their modest increase in March.
- Company sentiment about output over the next year dropped in April for the third month in a row, but was “relatively more resilient in manufacturing than services.”
- Still, factory confidence declined to its lowest level since August 2024 “amid concerns over higher costs, supply constraints, weaker economic growth and falling demand from export customers.”
Credit-Card Companies Brace for a Downturn
The largest credit-card companies are preparing for the economy to get worse. An economic downturn could mean more customers can’t pay their bills, and banks and credit card companies are trying to get ahead of it, according to their latest earnings reports. Already, delinquencies are rising and are now in line with levels from before the pandemic. JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup added money to their rainy day funds to cover expected future losses. Retail-card issuer Synchrony is tightening its lending standards. U.S. Bancorp is chasing a more affluent customer base that could better withstand a downturn.
Increased caution is also changing who banks want as customers. Banks that traditionally serve everyday Americans are starting to chase a wealthier crowd in an effort to insulate their card portfolios from the risk that lower-income card customers will fall behind on their bills. U.S. Bancorp said it is revamping its card strategy to give priority to premium offerings and shifting marketing toward more affluent households.
US New Home Sales Jump In March - Supply Rising, Prices Falling
Sales of new U.S. single-family homes increased more than expected in March as buyers rushed to take advantage of a decline in mortgage rates, but a gloomy economic outlook poses a challenge to the housing market recovery. New home sales jumped 7.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 724,000 units last month, the highest level since September 2024, the Commerce Department's Census Bureau said on Wednesday. The sales pace for February was revised down to a rate of 674,000 units from the previously reported 676,000 units.
The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage declined to 6.65% in March from 6.76% at the end of February, data from mortgage finance agency Freddie Mac showed. But the rate has since been rising, touching a two-month high of 6.83% last week. In March, new home sales increased in the densely populated South and the Midwest. They, however, fell in the Northeast and West. The median new house price dropped 7.5% to $403,600 in March from a year earlier. Most of the homes sold last month were below $499,999. The inventory of new homes last month increased 0.6% to 503,000 units, the highest level since November 2007. At March's sales pace it would take 8.3 months to clear the supply of new houses on the market, down from 8.9 months in February.
Global Headlines
Middle East
- Israel Mulls Strike on Iran Despite Trump's Caution – Newsweek
- Abbas Calls Hamas 'Sons Of Dogs' And Demands Release Of Gaza Hostages - BBC
- Hamas and Hezbollah Get Backlash for Mourning Pope - Newsweek
- More Than 100,000 Afghans Left Pakistan In April, Amid Eviction Campaign – France 24
- Gaza Health Ministry Denies Manipulating Death Toll Figures - BBC
- Interactive Map- Israel’s Operation In Gaza – Institute For The Study Of War
- Map – Tracking Hamas’ Attack On Israel – Live Universal Awareness Map
Ukraine
- Rubio And Witkoff Bail On Crucial Ukraine Talks Amid Crimea Split – Politico
- Zelensky: Ukraine Ready for Immediate Ceasefire - Newsweek
- US Intensifying Bid To End Ukraine War - But Chances Of Success Remain Unclear - BBC
- Viktor Orbán Votes Against Ukraine Joining EU in National Poll - Newsweek
- US Will 'Walk Away' Unless Russia And Ukraine Agree To Peace Deal, VP Vance Warns – France 24
- Interactive Map: Assessed Control Of Terrain In Ukraine – Institute For The Study Of War
- Map – Tracking Russia’s Invasion Of Ukraine – Live Universal Awareness Map
Other Headlines
- St. Peter's Basilica Opens To The Public To Pay Final Respects To Pope Francis – France 24
- Kashmir Killings Shatter Modi's Tourism Success In Troubled Region - Reuters
- European Parliament In ‘Final Stages’ Of Talks With China To Remove Sanctions - SCMP
- India Downgrades Ties With Pakistan After Attack On Kashmir Tourists - Reuters
- WHO Announces 'Significant' Layoffs Amid US Funding Cuts – France 24
- EU Hits Meta, Apple With Fines Amid Trump Talks - Newsweek
- Early Turnout Shatters Record In Canada Polls With 7.3m Ballots Cast - BBC
- World Economic Forum Opens New Probe Into Founder Klaus Schwab – WSJ
Policy and Politics
Legislature Passes Another Budget Extender Through Today
State lawmakers bought themselves another two days to pass a state budget, now 22 days late. They passed an extender to bridge the funding gap for state services and payroll from Wednesday when the current extender expires, through Thursday. Deputy Senate Majority Leader Mike Gianaris told reporters the most likely scenario at this point seems to be a budget deal later this week with voting on budget bills spilling into early next week. “I think next sounds like a really good week to pass a budget,” he said. “I think the hope at this point mid-week is to reach an agreement this week and pass it next, that would be a nice outcome if we can get there.
That means the grind of negotiating policy issues, which has been the sole reason for the holdup thus far, must be wrapped up this week. Same goes for how the billions of dollars the state plans to spend will be allocated, with the final number still undetermined. Therefore also up in the air is school aid, aid to municipalities, and how issues of revenue, taxes, and tax relief will be addressed. Gianaris said he’s confident a compromise will come on changes to involuntary commitment laws. “All that stuff will come together,” he said.
Read more at the NY State of Politics
IMF Forecasts U.S. Fiscal Deficit Will Dip In 2025 Thanks To Higher Tariff Revenue
The International Monetary Fund forecasts U.S. tariffs will help lower the country’s fiscal deficit a touch in 2025 even as the U.S. growth and inflation outlooks worsen thanks to an intensifying trade war. The 191-nation’s Fiscal Monitor report released Wednesday projects the U.S.’s overall federal deficit will fall to 6.5% of gross domestic product this year, down from 7.3% in 2024. The narrower gap between spending and revenue is “contingent on higher tariff revenues,” according to the report. “These projections are highly uncertain and do not account for measures under discussion in Congress, under budget reconciliation” negotiations, the fund said.
To be sure, the report noted “the magnitude of the tariff revenue increase is highly uncertain.” One of the caveats to the reduced deficit projection is the degree to which tariffs will put downward pressure on imports into the U.S., itself dependent largely on how consumers respond to higher prices. This varies widely across products, the report noted. Moreover, “the tariff schedule itself is uncertain and plays a crucial role,” the report continued. The IMF acknowledged another risk to its forecast: whether tariffs lead to a wider slowdown in economic activity that could lead to a downturn in other segments of tax revenue — such as income tax — that offset higher revenues from tariffs.
Musk Says He’ll Significantly Cut Back Time At DOGE, Push Trump For Lower Tariffs
Tesla chief Elon Musk said in a Tesla earnings call Tuesday that his time spent leading the Department of Government Efficiency and working with the Trump administration “will drop significantly” starting next month, ensuring investors he will dedicate more time to Tesla shortly after the electric vehicle maker reported its worst quarterly profit in years. Musk noted he will continue to spend a day or two per week on government matters “for as long as the president would like me to do so, and as long as it is useful.”
Musk also briefly addressed President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff policies, saying he will “continue to advocate for lower tariffs instead of higher tariffs, but that's all I can do.” The billionaire defended his work with DOGE, blasting critics of the agency and recent protests against Tesla, alleging protesters that organized against the electric vehicle maker last month were paid with “fraudulent money.” Musk’s comments come hours after Tesla reported its worst quarterly profit since 2021 and revenue $2 billion below average Wall Street estimates.
Trump’s First 100 Days
- Americans Sour On Trump's Handling Of The Economy, Reuters/Ipsos Poll Finds – Reuters
- Trump Says He Has ‘No Intention Of Firing’ Jerome Powell - Forbes
- Stefanik Would Be ‘Absolutely Fantastic Candidate’ For NY Governor: RNC Chief – The Hill
- Rand Paul Fights Trump on Tariffs as Other Republicans Duck - WSJ
- Judge Halts Shutdown Of Voice Of America - Politico
- Trump Spurs Doubts Over Australia's $234bn AUKUS Nuclear Submarine Plan – Nikkei Asia
- Illinois Sen. Dick Durbin to Retire, Setting Off Democratic Scramble - WSJ
- Abrego Garcia Inflames Trump Tensions With Some Conservatives, Libertarians – The Hill
- Trump Says He Has No Plans To Fire Fed's Powell; Market Jumps - Reuters
- Trump Administration’s Immigration Crackdown Hits New Legal Roadblocks - WSJ
- Trump Tracker: Keep Tabs On The Latest Announcements And Executive Orders - WSJ
Health and Wellness
Perimenopause: 7 Women Share Their Tips for Dealing With Symptoms
Waking up in the middle of the night covered in sweat, feeling joint pain so severe you take ibuprofen every day, and experiencing intense anxiety that interferes with your day—all of these are perimenopause symptoms, but if you’re in your mid-40s or younger, you might not connect the dots that these changes are related to your estrogen levels. Recognizing symptoms is important, though, because there’s no specific age when perimenopause (the transitional period leading up to menopause) always begins or a test to confirm it has officially started.
“Instead, we rely mostly on symptom patterns,” like irregular periods, mood shifts, night sweats, trouble sleeping, or just not feeling like yourself, Stephanie Faubion, MD, medical director of The Menopause Society and director of the Mayo Clinic’s Center for Women’s Health, tells SELF. The average age of menopause in the US is 52, but perimenopause can begin several years before that, sometimes as early as your late 30s. While perimenopause is a “universal experience,” Dr. Faubion says, no two women experience it exactly the same way. There are also multiple approaches for treating and mitigating symptoms—which can make it hard to figure out what to try first. Here, seven women share what’s worked for them to quell symptoms during the hormonal roller-coaster ride of perimenopause.
Industry News
Trade War Updates
- China Responds to Trump's Softening Tone on Trade – Newsweek
- Trump Says China Tariffs Will ‘Come Down Substantially,’ Hinting At Potential U-Turn – CNN
- White House Would Consider Cutting China Tariffs As Part Of Talks, Source Says - Reuters
- UK Won’t Rule Out Lowering Car Tariffs In US Trade Deal - Politico
- China Sends Boeing Planes Back To US Over Tariffs - BBC
- ByteDance, Alibaba and Tencent stockpile billions worth of Nvidia chips – Nikkei Asia
- Tariffs May Mean More US Steel Jobs. Will There Be Workers To Fill Them? - Reuters
- Americans Are Expecting A Tariff-Fueled Price Surge. Corporate America Says They're Right – Yahoo Finance
- Auto Groups Lobby Trump Administration Against Parts Tariffs In Rare Unified Message – CNBC
Regeneron To Invest Over $3 Billion To Boost US Manufacturing, Including in Tarrytown New York
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals said on Tuesday it has signed a deal worth more than $3 billion with contract drug developer Fujifilm Diosynth, potentially doubling its U.S. manufacturing capacity and bringing its total investments in the country to over $7 billion. Major U.S. drugmakers, including Eli Lilly and Johnson & Johnson have recently announced additional investments in their U.S. production as they prepare to deal with potential drug import duties from President Donald Trump's administration.
Under the terms of the deal, Tokyo-based Fujifilm Diosynth's facility in Holly Springs, North Carolina will manufacture and supply drug products for Regeneron's biologic medicines for a span of 10 years. The facility is expected to be operational later this year. Regeneron is also expanding its Tarrytown, New York-based facility and building a separate facility in the state to expand capacity to fill injection pens - a process known as fill-finish. Its ongoing and planned investments in New York and North Carolina are expected to exceed $7 billion, Regeneron said, adding that it has added more than 7,000 jobs in the United States over the last five years.
Roche to Invest $50 Billion in U.S. Manufacturing, R&D as Tariffs Loom
Swiss pharmaceutical giant Roche plans to invest $50 billion in the U.S. over the next five years, the latest major spending commitment by a big drugmaker as the industry faces President Trump’s tariff threats. Pharma companies have in recent months set out plans to ramp up investments in the U.S. to boost local production and create jobs as the Trump administration prepares to impose tariffs on medicine imports–which have so far been exempted from such levies–and seeks to revive domestic manufacturing.
The investment by Roche will fund new research hubs and new and expanded manufacturing facilities in Indiana, Pennsylvania, Massachusetts and California, the company said Tuesday. The company said that investment would create 1,000 jobs at Roche and more than 11,000 elsewhere including nearly 6,500 construction jobs. The company currently has 15 R&D centers and 13 manufacturing sites in the U.S., employing more than 25,000 people.
FDA Will Phase Out Food Dyes Used In Skittles, Gatorade And Froot Loops: What To Know
The Food and Drug Administration and Department of Health and Human Services announced moves Tuesday to phase out “all petroleum-based synthetic dyes” from the food supply in the United States, a move that will likely impact major American food and drink companies. Petroleum-based dyes will be phased out by the end of 2026, FDA Commissioner Marty Makary said at a press conference to announce the plan Tuesday.
The FDA said it will work with industry to eliminate six synthetic dyes: FD&C Green No. 3, FD&C Red No. 40, FD&C Yellow No. 5, FD&C Yellow No. 6, FD&C Blue No. 1 and FD&C Blue No. 2. Many companies—including General Mills, Kellogg, Kraft and PepsiCo—producing processed foods regularly use these dyes to “offset color loss due to exposure to light, air, temperature extremes, moisture and storage conditions,” according to the FDA. The FDA said it is also asking food companies to stop using FD&C Red No. 3—which was banned earlier this year under former President Joe Biden—earlier than its previous deadline of 2027, according to a press release.
Key Company Earnings:
IBM reported better than expected earnings and revenue for the first quarter on Wednesday. Earnings per share were $1.60 adjusted vs. $1.40 expected and revenue was $14.54 billion vs. $14.4 billion expected. Revenue increased 0.6% in the quarter from $14.5 billion a year earlier, according to a statement. Net income slid to $1.06 billion, or $1.12 per share, from $1.61 billion, or $1.72 per share, in the same quarter a year ago. The company’s infrastructure division, which includes mainframe computers, posted a 6% decline in revenue to $2.89 billion, higher than the $2.76 billion consensus. Earlier this month, IBM introduced its z17 mainframe. Infrastructure revenue growth generally picks up as customers adopt the next generation and then drifts down late in the cycle.
GE Aerospace reported higher earnings for the first quarter on revenue gains from its defense businesses and commercial engines and services unit. The maker of jet engines posted a profit of $2.25 billion, compared with $1.99 billion in the same quarter a year earlier. Stripping out one-time items, adjusted earnings were $1.49 a share. Analysts polled by FactSet had been expecting $1.27 a share. Revenue jumped 11% to $9.94 billion, above analyst projections for $9.05 billion, according to FactSet. Total orders were up 12% from a year ago at $12.3 billion. - WSJ
Boeing reported a first-quarter net loss of $31 million, an improvement from a loss of $355 million a year earlier, as revenue rose 18% to $19.5 billion, slightly ahead of analysts’ estimates. The company’s cash burn of about $2.3 billion was an improvement over the nearly $4 billion it used in the first quarter of 2024, and was better than analysts expected. Boeing reported a loss per share of 49 cents adjusted vs. $1.29 loss expected and revenue of $19.5 billion vs. $19.45 billion expected. Revenue in its defense unit, which has been plagued with cost-overruns and quality issues, fell 9% during the first quarter to $6.3 billion, though the company recently scored a major win after Trump awarded Boeing a contract to build the U.S. Air Force’s all-new fighter jet, dubbed the F-47. - CNBC
Northrop Grumman first-quarter earnings and sales missed analysts’ estimates as delayed awards and higher-than-expected costs weighed on results, prompting it to cut its outlook for the year. The defense contractor said it experienced a slower ramp up in sales for the quarter due to the delay and booked an additional $477 million pretax loss on its B-21 bomber program, citing higher costs from manufacturing changes. “Most of the change that we have experienced and that have resulted in now the close to $2 billion of charges on the program are due to inflationary factors,” Chief Executive Kathy Warden said on an earnings call. Northrop now projects earnings to come in between $24.95 and $25.35 a share in 2025, down from prior guidance of per-share earnings between $27.85 and $28.25. - WSJ
3M isn’t lowering its 2025 earnings guidance in light of President Trump’s tariff campaign but instead is adding a “tariff sensitivity” to show how much the levies could cut into its current outlook. The materials maker said it is bracing for a small impact to its profit in the second half of the year from the U.S.’s tariff back-and-forth with China, which represents about 10% of the company’s $1.6 billion in imports. “Tariffs are going to be a headwind this year, but we thought it would be prudent to hold the impact outside of our full-year guidance, while I digest the new policies and fully develop and quantify mitigation plans,” Chief Executive William Brown said on a call with analysts. 3M said Tuesday that it still expects adjusted earnings of $7.60 to $7.90 a share this year, but that tariffs could knock the figure down by 20 cents to 40 cents a share. - Yahoo
SAP on Wednesday posted a 58% year-on-year jump in first-quarter operating profit in constant currency, also confirming its outlook for full-year cloud revenues. Operating profit hit 2.5 billion euros ($2.9 billion) in the first quarter, compared with analysts expectations near 2.2 billion euros, according to LSEG data. The German software giant said revenue had jumped 11% to 9 billion euros, with its cloud backlog up 29% year-on-year. Earnings per share jumped 79% on an annual basis to 1.44 euros. SAP also said it continues to expect full-year cloud revenue to fall in the range of 21.6 billion euros to 21.9 billion euros in constant currency this year. CEO Christian Klein said SAP ‘more relevant than ever’ amid tariffs uncertainty. The firm’s software gives clients the means to keep their supply chains resilient, he said, by helping them determine which of their suppliers could still deliver competitive costs. - CNBC
General Dynamics reported a 27% rise in first-quarter profit on Wednesday, driven by recovery in its aerospace segment, as well as sustained strength in its defense business. The Reston, Virginia-based company reported quarterly profit of $994 million or $3.66 per share beating analyst estimates of $3.50 and up from $799 million or $2.88 per share a year ago. Revenue of $12.2 billion also beat Wall Street analyst estimates of $11.9 billion. The aerospace unit, which makes Gulfstream business jets, posted a 45% increase in revenue in the reported quarter, compared to the same quarter a year ago. Earnings at the unit were up 69% as deliveries hit 36 in the quarter, up from 24 a year ago. - Reuters
Boeing To Seek FAA Approval This Year To Increase 737 Max Production As Losses Narrow
Boeing is preparing to ask for Federal Aviation Administration approval to ramp up production of its best-selling 737 Max jets to 42 a month later this year, CEO Kelly Ortberg said Wednesday, as airplane deliveries picked up this year and the company narrowed its losses. Ortberg, who was hired last year and tasked with getting the manufacturer past a series of safety and manufacturing crises, outlined progress, including production rates of its best-selling 737 Max.
The CEO has in recent months touted improved safety and manufacturing processes at Boeing’s factories as he tries to guide the company past several accidents, including a door plug that blew out from a packed flight midair in January 2024 after the 737 Max left Boeing’s factory without key bolts installed. There were no fatalities or major injuries. Since the January 2024 accident, Boeing must receive approval from the FAA to increase production of the 737 Max to above 38 jets a month. Boeing had been producing significantly below that level after the accident and a nearly two-month union strike last year halted much of the company’s production.
Small Biz Noble Supply & Logistics LLC Awarded US Army Vehicle Repair Program
The U.S. Army extended a $95.2-million award for Noble Supply & Logistics LLC to oversee the Forward Repair System M7A1 Tool Load program over a five-year period. The Boston-based small business earned the fixed-price contract against one other bidder, and will execute the assigned activities at locations to be determined with each order, through April 2030. The Forward Repair System program covers a specific set of tools and equipment needed for field repair and maintenance of combat vehicles, specifically the M7A1 armored vehicles. The FRS is designed to be a mobile, self-contained maintenance unit, capable of performing repairs without moving damaged vehicles to a larger repair facility.
The FRS is typically a palletized package transported on a flatrack for quick field deployment, and brings a range of tools and equipment to an area of service, such as diagnostic tools, hand tools, specialty vehicle repair equipment, and possibly a crane for lifting heavy parts.
Read more at American Machinist
Lucy Captures 1st Close-Up Images Of Asteroid Donaldjohanson, Revealing 'Strikingly Complicated Geology'
NASA's Lucy spacecraft, currently headed toward Jupiter on an asteroid-hopping mission, has captured an impressive close-up of its second target: the space rock 52246 Donaldjohanson. Images of the asteroid Lucy took as it approached the three-mile-wide asteroid showed wide swings in brightness, suggesting it was either a slowly-rotating rock, appearing brighter when its longer sides faced the spacecraft, or an elongated object. Indeed, close-up images of the asteroid sent home by Lucy on Sunday confirmed both: The asteroid was once two smaller pieces that have conjoined into a larger whole, with a distinct narrow neck between the two lobes.
Lucy launched in 2021, embarking on a 12-year journey toward Jupiter's orbit to study an unexplored swarm of asteroids called Jupiter's Trojans. These asteroids are remnants of our early solar system that share the giant planet's orbit around the sun. Along the way, the spacecraft is also squeezing in time for a few dress rehearsals for its Trojan targets down the road — and on Sunday (April 20), it swooped within 600 miles (1,000 kilometers) of the asteroid 52246 Donaldjohanson, named after American paleoanthropologist Donald Johanson who co-discovered the Lucy hominid fossil in northern Ethiopia in 1974.
Read more and see the images at Space