Member Briefing December 4, 2025

Posted By: Harold King Daily Briefing,

U.S. Industrial Production Rose Slightly in September

U.S. factory production was unchanged in September as manufacturing remained constrained by tariffs on imports. The flat reading in manufacturing ​output reported by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday followed an unrevised 0.1% ‌gain in August. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast production for the sector, which accounts for 10.1% ‌of the economy, ticking up 0.1%.

  • Manufacturing output grew at a 1.3% annualized rate in the third quarter, slowing from the April-June quarter's 2.4% pace.
  • Motor vehicle and parts production decreased 2.2% in September after rebounding 3.0% in August.
  • Durable manufacturing output edged up 0.1%.
  • Nondurable manufacturing production dipped 0.1%.
  • Mining output was unchanged after rising ⁠0.4% in August.
  • Utilities production rebounded 1.1%. That followed ​a 3.0% decline in August.
  • Industrial output rose 1.6% on a year-over-year basis. It grew at a 1.1% rate ‍in the third quarter.
  • Capacity ⁠utilization rate for the manufacturing sector slipped to 75.5% from ‌75.6% in August. It is 2.7 percentage points below its long-run average.

Read more at Reuters

ADP: November Private Payrolls Unexpectedly Fell By 32,000, Led By Steep Small Business Job Cuts

Hiring by American businesses dropped last month, according to an estimate from payroll processor ADP, a further setback for a labor market that has slowed this year. Private employers shed 32,000 jobs in November, ADP estimated, a swing from the 47,000 private-sector jobs that ADP estimated were added in October. Analysts surveyed by The Wall Street Journal were expecting to see 40,000 new private-sector jobs. ADP’s numbers, which come from the anonymized payrolls of ADP’s corporate clients, have long been on economists’ radar. Since October, though, they have taken on special importance given the vacuum of official economic data caused by the recent government shutdown.

On the whole, the pace of hiring has downshifted significantly this year, a decline many economists blame on businesses’ uncertainty in the face of fast-changing tariff policies, and on a stagnating pool of workers as the government cracks down on immigration. In the past few weeks, indications have turned slightly more positive. Before Thanksgiving, the long-delayed September jobs report showed that although the unemployment rose to 4.5% that month, the economy added a buoyant 119,000 net jobs. Meanwhile, a relatively modest number of workers have applied for new unemployment benefits in recent weeks, suggesting that there has been no sharp rise in layoffs.

Read more at The WSJ

ISM: Service Sector Activity Hits 9-Month High

Economic activity in the services sector continued to expand in November, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest ISM® Services PMI® Report.  In November, the Services PMI® registered a reading of 52.6 percent, 0.2 percentage point higher than the October figure.

  • The Business Activity Index continued in expansion territory in November, registering 54.5 percent, 0.2 percentage point higher than the reading of 54.3 percent recorded in October.
  • The New Orders Index also remained in expansion in November, with a reading of 52.9 percent, 3.3 percentage points below October's figure of 56.2 percent but 0.9 percentage point above its 12-month average of 51.7 percent.
  • The Employment Index contracted for the sixth month in a row with a reading of 48.9 percent, a 0.7-percentage point improvement from the 48.2 percent recorded in October — the fourth consecutive monthly increase since a reading of 46.4 percent in July.
  • The Inventories Index registered 53.4 percent in November, an increase of 3.9 percentage points from October's figure of 49.5 percent, a return to expansion after two months in contraction territory.
  • Twelve industries reported growth in November, one more than in October, while the number reporting contraction decreased from six to five. The 12 services industries reporting growth in November — listed in order — are: Retail Trade; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Accommodation & Food Services; Wholesale Trade; Health Care & Social Assistance; Educational Services; Public Administration; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Finance & Insurance; Information; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Utilities.
  • The five industries reporting a contraction in the month of November are: Construction; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Mining; Management of Companies & Support Services; and Transportation & Warehousing.

Read more at Wells Fargo

Middle East

Ukraine

Other Headlines

Empire Center Report: New York’s Population Remains Diminished from Covid-19

Most parts of New York remain less populated in 2024 than they were in 2020 as the state struggled to recover from Covid-19, according to an analysis of Census Bureau data. This was especially true for New York City, the pandemic’s early epicenter. Although the city’s population climbed in 2023* and 2024, it had gained back only about one-third of what it lost in 2021 and 2022 – and remained down by 262,000 residents or 3 percent since the start of the decade.

The state as a whole was down by 238,000 residents or 1.2 percent over the four-year stretch, even as the U.S. population rose by 2.6 percent. Overall, New York lost more population in the first four years of this decade than any other state except West Virginia – a harbinger that New York is likely to forfeit more seats in Congress (and in the Electoral College) after the next decennial census. Over the same period, the mid-Hudson region and Long Island saw modest growth of 1 percent, likely due to city residents relocating to the suburbs. Upstate’s population dipped 0.4 percent, continuing its long-term trend of decline.

Read more at The Empire Center

Hofstra Political Scientist Larry Levy Discusses New York's Competitive U.S. House Races In 2026, Redistricting Factor

The road to the U.S. House of Representatives majority runs right through New York state. According to the Cook Political Report, there is one highly competitive seat in New York in 2026 — the seat Democratic Rep. Laura Gillen holds in New York's 4th Congressional District on Long Island. It’s considered a "tossup” race by Cook, an independent, non-partisan analyst of political campaigns.

There are two seats that “lean Democrat” in New York, according to Cook. Those include the seat Democratic Rep. Josh Riley holds in the 19th Congressional District in Central New York, and the seat Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi holds in the 3rd District on Long Island.  On the Republican side of the ledger, the seat held by Rep. Mike Lawler in the Hudson Valley's 17th District is one that Cook says “leans Republican." New York state’s other congressional districts are deemed either safe or “likely." But there is a big question mark surrounding all the state’s congressional races. There is a possibility of mid-decade redistricting.

Read more at NY State of Politics

US Pauses Immigration Applications From 19 Countries On Trump’s Travel Ban List

In a notification issued on Tuesday night, the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) said it was placing a hold on all “benefit applications” for people from the 19 “high risk” countries “pending a comprehensive review.” The impacted countries are the ones whose nationals are already subject to U.S. travel bans under an executive order signed by Trump in June—with the USCIS move also impacting people already in the U.S.

The pause will affect a host of immigration related decisions, including Green Card applications and naturalizations for immigrants from the listed countries. The notification also mentioned that the USCIS is placing a hold on all asylum decisions, reaffirming a statement made by the agency’s director Joseph Edlow last week. The pause will remain in effect until Edlow decides to lift it “through a subsequent memorandum,” the notification added.

Read more at Forbes

More Policy and Politics Headlines

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Why Men’s Mental Health In Male-Dominated Industries Must Become A Workplace Priority

In male-dominated industries, stigma remains one of the biggest barriers to men getting support. Construction is an example of this, with 85% of the workforce made up of men, many still feel they should cope in silence, and male construction workers are almost four times more likely to die by suicide than the national average for men. This is not just a sector issue, it highlights a wider cultural problem. If we are serious about protecting our people, tackling stigma must come first: normalising conversations, challenging the idea that asking for help is a weakness, and creating workplaces where men feel safe to speak up long before they reach crisis point. Construction shows what is at stake, but the responsibility sits with every industry.

Protecting employee wellbeing starts with creating environments where people feel valued, and where bullying or exclusion is never tolerated. Often, it is the smallest actions that make the biggest difference: a check-in, a conversation or simply knowing who to turn to when things feel difficult. Leaders play a crucial role in normalising conversations about mental health and ensuring support is visible and accessible through counselling, helplines, and employee assistance programmes. Wellbeing training and mental health first aiders can help managers spot early warning signs, while practical steps, from flexible scheduling to workload reviews, can reduce burnout. Practical actions such as team get-togethers or celebrating milestones all help to ease pressure and build a sense of belonging.

Read more at HR Magazine (UK)

Upcoming Council Programs

Events

Manufacturing Champions Award Breakfast - Friday May 8, 2026 -7:45 - 10:00 AM. The DoubleTree Poughkeepsie.

Networks

HR Sub Council Meeting Topic TBD, January 14, 2026, 8:15 - 11:00. Selux Corporation, Highland.

Health & Safety Sub Council Meeting Topic TBD, February 12, 2026, 8:30 - 10:30. Location TBD

Insight Exchange On Demand Webinars

Webinars and Seminars

Check back soon

Training

Certificate in Manufacturing Leadership Program Winter Session, Virtual. Supervisor Training Program for Hudson Valley Manufacturers. 7 Courses (15 half day sessions) January 6 - March 11 Via Zoom.

Lean Six Sigma Green Belt This program combines online coursework, with live Zoom sessions, to deliver a flexible and effective learning experience in Lean Six Sigma methodologies. Most Mondays March 2 - June 8 Via Zoom.

(Special Info session for those who are 'Green Belt curious' February 23rd)

Lean Six Sigma: Yellow Belt - Yellow Belt is an approach to process improvement that merges the complementary concepts and tools from both Six Sigma and Lean approaches. 3 Full days - March 9,10 & 11 - DCC Fishkill.

Trade Wars

Realtor.Com Predicts Gradual Housing Market Recovery In 2026

Realtor.com released its 2026 Housing Forecast, projecting a cautious stabilization in the housing market after several years of affordability challenges, limited supply and tepid activity. Buyer conditions are expected to improve gradually as mortgage rates ease, incomes rise and more homes come onto the market. Still, the recovery is expected to remain slow, with existing-home sales staying well below normal levels and broader political and economic uncertainty keeping the outlook fragile.

  • The average 30-year mortgage rate will hover near 6.3% in 2026 — slightly below the 2025 average of 6.6%.
  • Home prices are projected to rise 2.2% in 2026, following a 2.0% increase in 2025. But those nominal gains are not expected to keep pace with inflation, meaning real home prices will fall for the second year in a row.
  • Active listings are expected to grow 8.9% in 2026, the third consecutive year of expansion.
  • Four in five mortgage-holding homeowners have a rate below 6%, leaving many reluctant to move unless prompted by major life events. This ‘lock-in effect’ will continue shaping the market. Existing-home sales are forecast to rise 1.7% in 2026 to 4.13 million — still among the slowest levels in decades.

Read more at Housing Wire

Humanoid Robot Digit Moves 100,000 Totes at Distribution Center

Agility Robotics' humanoid robot, Digit, has moved more than 100,000 totes at GXO Logistics' Flowery Branch facility in Georgia. Logistics operators face a combination of rising throughput demands and persistent labor shortages, driving the need for automation that can both scale and adapt. Unlike fixed robotic arms or single-purpose AMRs, Digit’s humanlike form lets it operate in existing facilities without major infrastructure changes. It can handle varied tasks within the same workflow, from transferring totes between AMRs and conveyors to stacking them in different locations.

The milestone confirms Digit’s ability to perform these jobs consistently, at high payload capacities, and across thousands of cycles. Capabilities such as dynamic balancing and vision-driven grasping have been tested repeatedly across changing environments, with the 100K-tote metric demonstrating seamless integration into live operational workflows—not just isolated tasks

Read more at Assembly Magazine

Amazon Tests 30-Minute Delivery

Amazon is testing half-hour or quicker deliveries of groceries and household essentials in parts of Seattle and Philadelphia, the e-commerce giant said Monday. The ultra-speedy delivery, dubbed Amazon Now, is about $14 per order, or about $4 for Prime members. Orders under $15 also incur a fee of about $2. In order to facilitate this offer, the company said it has placed small fulfillment facilities designed for efficiency “close to where Seattle- and Philadelphia-area customers live and work.”

“While this offering is in early test mode, we think Amazon Now is potentially an important step toward Amazon matching or even surpassing the immediacy benefit of in-store purchasing,” Post said in a Tuesday client note. The Amazon Now delivery option could also bolster the appeal of Prime and drive advertising revenue on the Amazon site, according to Bank of America.

Read more at Supply Chain Dive

Pentagon Unveils Drone Dominance Program With ‘Gauntlets’ To Rapidly Expand Its Small UAS Arsenal

The Pentagon plans to purchase more than 200,000 industry-made drones by 2027 — with forthcoming orders for 30,000 of those unmanned assets to be delivered by July 2026 — via its new Drone Dominance Program. This initiative builds on policies and guidance that President Donald Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth issued this summer to spark growth across the U.S. industrial base and rapidly equip the military with a trusted arsenal of cheap and lethal options for small uncrewed aerial systems.

In that RFI and on a new website, the Defense Department supplied a first look at its iterative, high-dollar plan to signal demand and propel industry competition by testing and buying a range of small commercial drones over the next two years. The Pentagon aims to place $1 billion in fixed-price orders through the program, utilizing an authority that enables it to carry out certain prototype projects. Notably, the DDP will unfold over four phases. Each will start with a “Gauntlet challenge” and end with completed deliveries of production-quality drones from the winners of those events, where military operators will fly and evaluate select, commercial drones in various scenarios.

Read more at Defense Scoop

MDA Picks Over 1,000 Initial Winners For Golden Dome Contracting Vehicle

The Missile Defense Agency Monday announced it has tapped hundreds of companies to supply tech for the Golden Dome initiative, though only those who receive orders later will get a piece of a prize pool worth up to $151 billion. “This contract encompasses a broad range of work areas that allows for the rapid delivery of innovative capabilities to the warfighter with increased speed and agility, leveraging artificial intelligence and machine learning enabled applications where pertinent, and maximizing use of digital engineering, open systems architectures, model-based systems engineering, and agile processes in the acquisition, development, and sustainment of these capabilities,” MDA wrote in the contract announcement this evening, in which it did not identify the individual winners.

MDA has been working to get industry on board and issued a public presolicitation notice for SHIELD in late July. It then summoned interested parties to Huntsville, Ala. in early August to outline new details about the ambitions of Golden Dome and the contracting vehicle. Last week Space Force made a first set of awards for prototypes for space-based interceptors (SBIs) meant to shoot down incoming enemy missiles in their boost phase just minutes after launch — but the winners of the initial, relatively small contracts are shrouded in secrecy.

Read more at Breaking Defense

Airbus Cuts 2025 Delivery Target In Wake Of A320 Fuselage Panel Issue

 Airbus has lowered its target for commercial aircraft deliveries this year, after finding a quality issue affecting the fuselage panels on its bestselling A320 jets. The aircraft manufacturer now expects to deliver around 790 commercial planes this year, down from its previous target of about 820. Still, Airbus maintained its 2025 financial guidance - adjusted EBIT of around €7B (~$8.1B) and free cash flow before customer financing of about €4.5B ($5.2B). The company delivered 585 aircraft by the end of October. It will disclose its November orders and deliveries on Friday.

Jefferies analysts said the 30 aircraft removed from the delivery target "are not all expected to require a parts change, but for now only require a non-destructive test to be performed." The quality issue relates to the thickness of panels on top of the cockpit and either side of the plane's right and left front doors. Some 628 planes reportedly had the defective panels installed. The component in question is dual-sourced, "with only one of the supplier facing a quality escape, which has already been resolved at the production level," Jefferies noted.

Read more at Seeking Alpha

Macy’s Posts Strongest Growth In More Than 3 Years, But Strikes Cautious Note On Holidays

Macy’s on Wednesday beat Wall Street’s sales expectations for the third quarter in a row and posted its strongest growth in more than three years as the company’s turnaround strategy showed signs of momentum. The department store operator raised its full-year sales and earnings outlook after its better-than-expected fiscal third quarter. The retailer now expects adjusted earnings per share of between $2 and $2.20, up from its previous expectation of $1.70 to $2.05, and net sales of $21.48 billion to $21.63 billion, compared with its prior outlook of $21.15 billion and $21.45 billion.

In an interview with CNBC, CEO Tony Spring said the company is taking a “prudent view” of the fourth quarter because it faces tough year-over-year comparisons and because it’s not sure how “aspirational customers,” those who like to shop at its stores but are more financially pressured, may spend during the season. “We’re pleased with the fourth quarter to date, but we have a big holiday in front of us,” he said.

Read more at CNBC

Lego To Launch Life-Size World Cup Trophy As Part Of FIFA Deal

t’s a life-size World Cup soccer trophy — made of 2,842 Lego bricks. Lego teamed up with FIFA on Wednesday to announce the product that will launch the classic Danish toy brand’s first World Cup range next year. The Lego version of the trophy first presented at the 1974 World Cup will be the exact same height of 36.8 centimeters (14 ½ inches). But the Lego brick trophy will be plastic instead of 18 carat solid gold and green malachite, and easier to pick up than the original’s 6.175 kilograms (13.6 pounds).

It goes on sale for $200 in March and will include “a hidden scene which can be opened via a pullable slip in the upper globe section,” Lego said in a statement. FIFA keeps the original trophy in Zurich. The first 48-team men’s World Cup co-hosted by the United States, Canada and Mexico opens June 11.

Read more at CNBC

Quote of the Day

"In such condition, there is no place for industry; because the fruit thereof is uncertain: and consequently no culture of the earth; no navigation, nor use of the commodities that may be imported by sea; ... no knowledge of the face of the earth; no account of time; no arts; no letters; no society; and which is worst of all, continual fear, and danger of violent death; and the life of man solitary, poor, nasty, brutish, and short.”

Thomas Hobbes - English Philosopher describing, in his book 'Leviathan,' a hypothetical state of nature, without government or social contract to maintain order. He died on this day in 1679.

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