Member Briefing January 19, 2026

Posted By: Harold King Daily Briefing,

U.S. Industrial Production Climbs Much More Than Expected In December

Industrial production in the U.S. grew by much more than expected in the month of December, according to a report released by the Federal Reserve on Friday. The Fed said industrial production climbed by 0.4 percent in December, matching an upwardly revised increase in November. Economists had expected industrial production to inch up by 0.1 percent compared to the 0.2 percent uptick originally reported for the previous month. The underlying details show a key theme from last year—everything high-tech and AI related outperformed. Production of things like semiconductors and computers rose at double-digit rates.

Along with upward revisions, the data show overall industrial production finished the year 2.0% higher from where it finished in December 2024. The same can be said for broad manufacturing activity, which turned higher toward the tail end of the year and was up a comparable amount. Utility output saw a larger gain, up 2.3% last year as insatiable demand from data centers continues to ratchet higher demand for power. Mining also rose 1.7% for the year despite finishing with declines in mining output in three out of the four final months of 2025. Capacity utilization inched up to 76.3% in December, but remains well below its long‑run average, underscoring persistent slack in the industrial sector.

Read more at Wells Fargo

Empire State Manufacturing Survey – “Modest Growth” in January

Manufacturing activity increased in New York State, according to the January survey. The general business conditions index rose eleven points to 7.7, returning to positive territory after a small dip below zero in December.

  • New orders and shipments increased, with the new orders index rising eight points to 6.6 and the shipments index climbing twenty-one points to 16.3, its highest level in over a year.
  • Inventories edged down and delivery times were unchanged.
  • The index for number of employees fell seventeen points to -9.0, its lowest reading in two years, while the average workweek index fell eight points to -5.4, suggesting a decrease both in employment levels and in hours worked.
  • The prices paid index held steady at 42.8, indicating input price increases remained elevated.
  • The prices received index dropped eleven points to 14.4, its lowest level since February 2025, pointing to slowing in selling price increases.
  • The index for future business conditions came in at 30.3, with about half of respondents expecting conditions to improve over the next six months.
  • New orders and shipments are expected to increase.
  • Firms continue to anticipate significant price increases, though somewhat less so than in recent months.
  • The capital expenditures index rose three points to 10.3, pointing to ongoing modest capital spending plans.

Read more at The NY Fed

NY Fed: Region’s Service Sector Continues “Significant Decline” in January But Optimism Grows

Business activity continued to fall substantially in the New York-Northern New Jersey region, according to the January survey. The headline business activity index came in at -16.1. The business climate index moved up ten points, but remained well below zero at -34.4, with 44 percent reporting an unfavorable business climate.

  • The employment index was little changed at -5.5, its fifth consecutive negative reading, suggesting employment continued to contract slightly.
  • The wages index moved up six points to 30.0, a level pointing to ongoing modest wage increases.
  • After reaching a three-year high last month, the prices paid index retreated eight points to 63.9, and the prices received index edged down three points to 27.6.
  • The supply availability index came in at -3.2, suggesting little change in supply availability.
  • The index for future business activity rose above zero for the first time since July of last year, but at 12.4, signaled that only a modest increase in activity is expected over the next six months.
  • Employment and wage increases are expected to pick up in the months ahead. Capital spending plans remained soft.

Read more at the NY Fed

Middle East

Ukraine

Venezuela

 

Other World Headlines

Senate Sends Three Bill Spending Package to Trump for Signature

The Senate cleared a three-bill spending package Thursday for President Donald Trump’s signature, completing a fraction of government funding measures necessary to avert another shutdown ahead of the month-end deadline. Lawmakers voted 82-15 to approve legislation funding the departments of Justice, Interior, Commerce and Energy, as well as the EPA, water programs and federal science initiatives through the end of the current fiscal year. Another spending package, funding the departments of Treasury and State, will be waiting for senators when they return from their recess next week. The House passed that measure Wednesday.

Together, they represent significant progress after last year’s record-breaking funding lapse. But the vast majority of government programs still need to be funded if Congress wants to avoid another stopgap to keep federal operations afloat beyond Jan. 30. That includes more than 75 percent of discretionary funding, including for the Pentagon and many of the largest non-defense programs. Lawmakers are optimistic that the text of another spending package funding Defense, Transportation-HUD and Labor-HHS-Education could be released in the middle of the upcoming long weekend. The Homeland Security funding package, however, remains in limbo, complicated by ongoing tensions in Minnesota where ICE agents have in recent days shot at least two people — one fatally.

Read more at Politico

Hochul or Trump Country? Political Sparks Fly At Micron Groundbreaking in Central NY (see related story below)

Central New York was flooded with elected officials and appointees Friday jockeying for an opportunity to be part of celebrating the groundbreaking for Micron’s massive semiconductor plant in the town of Clay, just outside of Syracuse. The occasion brought Gov. Kathy Hochul, who is up for reelection this year, face to face with Trump officials who sought to shower their boss' influence over a project strongly associated with Hochul and U.S. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer. The project was made possible largely through the federal CHIPS and Science Act which was championed by then-Senate Majority Leader Schumer and signed by former President Joe Biden.

At Friday's back-to-back events, it didn’t take long for the sparks to fly. Upon walking out on stage, U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick went for it. “It is great to be in Central New York, which of course you all know is the heart of Trump country,” he said to some applause. Hochul took the stage moments later, and when she received an exceptionally warm welcome, quipped “I don’t know, this might be Hochul country.”

Read more at NY State of Politics

 

Trump To Push For 'Emergency' Electricity Auction, Underlining The Difficult Politics Of Rising Utility Prices And AI

The White House is reportedly set to announce a new action today that will attempt to make Big Tech companies "pay their own way," as President Trump put it earlier this week, when it comes to energy consumption in the years ahead. The reported plans are for a new "emergency wholesale electricity auction" that would seek to lock large tech companies into long-term energy contracts in order to fund AI-fueled demand on power grids.

The plan appears to be for contracts that would force these companies to pay for a set amount of power, whether they consume the electricity or not. That could then provide a higher and steadier revenue stream to flow to grid operators and encourage more power generation. Trump and various CEOs have expressed a desire to limit the effect of data centers on local electricity prices but have offered very different definitions of what actions they will take in response.

Read more at Yahoo Finance

More Policy and Politics Headlines

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Has Flu Season Peaked? CDC Reports Declining, But Still High Cases

Flu cases are ticking down, but experts warn the U.S. isn’t out of the woods yet. On Friday, the latest data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported an over 18% drop in confirmed flu cases, compared to the previous week. Doctor visits for respiratory illnesses also decreased by more than 5% and hospitalization rates went down by nearly 55%. Influenza deaths, however, rose by 2% and fifteen more children died from the flu in the week ending Jan. 10, bringing the total of pediatric deaths to 32. The CDC estimates that so far this season, 18 million people have had the flu, including 230,000 who were hospitalized and 9,300 who have died.

Cases may be dipping, but flu and other winter illnesses including noroviru. Idaho, New Mexico, New York and parts of Appalachia are still experiencing very high levels of flu, while the number of reported cases is low in Montana, South Dakota, Vermont and Wyoming. The notably bad flu season this year is driven by a highly mutated strain of influenza A called H3N2 subclade K, which has key mutations that make it less similar to the strain used in this year’s flu vaccine. Influenza-like illnesses, which include other flu-like viruses including RSV and Covid, are also very high this year.

Read more at NBC

Upcoming Council Programs

Events

Manufacturing Advocacy Day - Tuesday February 24, 2026 -7:45 AM - 3:00 PM. The Fort Orange Club, State Capitol Building and Legislative Office Building, Albany.

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Training

Making a Profit In Manufactuirng This course is designed to provide supervisors and team leaders with the financial acumen essential for maximizing profitability and reducing operational risks. January 20 & 21, 8:30 - 12:30 Via Zoom.

Human Resource Management Issues This identifies and explains key legal issues that a manager may have to address in the workplace today. It helps current and future managers realize their responsibility to understand and enforce the employment laws that speak to these issues and minimize their chances of ending up in court. February 3 & 4, 8:30 - 12:30 Via Zoom.

Effective Business Communication This course is designed to build core communication skills essential in professional settings. Topics covered include identifying appropriate communication channels, honing active listening skills, and mastering techniques like paraphrasing, summarizing, and clarifying for better interpersonal communication. February 17 & 18, 8:30 - 12:30 Via Zoom.

FILLING FAST Lean Six Sigma Green Belt This program combines online coursework, with live Zoom sessions, to deliver a flexible and effective learning experience in Lean Six Sigma methodologies. Most Mondays March 2 - June 8 Via Zoom.

(Special Info session for those who are 'Green Belt curious' February 23rd)

Lean Six Sigma: Yellow Belt - Yellow Belt is an approach to process improvement that merges the complementary concepts and tools from both Six Sigma and Lean approaches. 3 Full days - March 9,10 & 11 - DCC Fishkill.

Daily Market Update Jan 16, 2026

The Feb ’26 natural gas contract is trading down $0.01 at $3.12. The Feb ‘26 crude oil contract is up $0.68 at $59.87.

Read more at NRG

Learn more about the Council of Industry Energy Buying Group

Trade Wars

Micron Breaks Ground On Massive Chipmaking Plant That Could Transform Central NY

At the edge of a 1,400-acre tract of swamp, forest and former farmland just north of Syracuse, Micron Technology and public officials across the political spectrum broke ground this morning on what’s being called the largest private development in New York state history. For Micron, riding a wave of record profits and bolstered by $25 billion in taxpayer subsidies, it marked the first ceremonial step to building its largest memory chip plant.

Micron says it plans to build four chipmaking factories in Clay by 2041 to churn out billions of tiny computer chips used in cars, cell phones, appliances and, increasingly, data centers and artificial intelligence. Late last year, Micron announced that the Clay fabrication plants, or fabs, would be delayed by two to three years. The first is now set to start production in 2030; the second, in 2033.

Read more at Syracuse.com

Underwater Car Trade-Ins Are On The Rise — And Drivers Owe A Record Amount, Edmunds Finds

As consumers contend with higher auto payments, new data from car website Edmunds suggests they may be falling into a cycle of negative equity — where their outstanding auto loan balances are higher than the value of their cars. In the fourth quarter of 2025, 29.3% of trade-ins toward new car purchases were “underwater,” or had negative equity, according to Edmunds. That is the highest share since the first quarter of 2021, when 31.9% of trade-ins had negative equity, according to the data. The average amount owed on trade-ins with negative equity rose to $7,214 — an all-time high, according to Edmunds. More than one-quarter of trade-ins had more than $10,000 in negative equity — also a record high.

Drivers trading in a car with negative equity typically need to come up with cash to pay that balance, or roll the debt into their new loan. Experts say cars that are underwater trade-ins today were likely purchased when pandemic-era chip shortages made it more likely that consumers were paying above the manufacturer’s suggested retail price, or MSRP. Meanwhile, a shortage of lease options at that time may have prompted consumers to purchase new cars instead, and face high loan balances if they opt to trade them in. Today’s car buyers are more likely to get deals closer to MSRP.

Read more at CNBC

TSMC Delivers Another Record Quarter As Profit Jumps 35% Fueled By Robust AI Chip Demand

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company on Thursday reported a 35% increase in fourth-quarter profit, beating estimates and hitting a fresh record as demand for artificial intelligence chips remained strong. Revenue was 1.046 trillion new Taiwan dollars ($33.73 billion), vs. NT$1.034 trillion expected, and net income was NT$505.74 billion, vs. NT$478.37 billion expected. The world’s largest contract chipmaker has now posted year-over-year profit growth for eight consecutive quarters. Meanwhile, TSMC’s revenue in the December quarter rose by 20.5% from a year ago to surpass NT$1 trillion, also beating forecasts.

In an earnings call, TSMC executives guided revenue for the current quarter to hit between $34.6 billion and $35.8 billion, up 4% sequentially, or up 38% year-over-year at the midpoint. “We expect our business to be supported by continued strong demand for our leading edge process technologies,” said TSMC’s Chief Financial Officer Wendell Huang during an earnings call, adding that the company’s profit margins have been increasing. With TSMC further leaning into its advanced products, it said that its capital expenditure was expected to reach between $52 billion and $56 billion in 2026, as compared to $40.9 billion in 2025.

Read more at CNBC

GE, Lockheed Test New Hypersonic Engine

GE Aerospace and Lockheed Martin have completed testing a series of engine tests to demonstrate the viability of a liquid-fueled, rotating detonation ramjet for use in hypersonic missiles. A “ramjet” is a type of jet engine that draws in air, using only the forward motion of the aircraft to compress it for combustion. The ramjet being tested incorporates GE Aerospace’s rotating detonation combustion system and a Lockheed Martin’s tactical inlet that promotes high-speed airflow to the combustor. This system generates high thrust for super- and hypersonic speeds, to engage high-value or time-sensitive targets, with a smaller and lighter engine that boosts range.

Hypersonic weapons are an area of significant focus for U.S. defense planners and developers. Hypersonic flight - which is five times the speed of sound, or higher - is considered to be a U.S. defense priority, but the developers still must overcome significant physical limits to successful designs, including very high-temperatures and air pressures. "Following two years of internal investment, this demonstration is a testament to the power of collaboration, innovation and joint commitment to get affordable capability into the hands of warfighters at the speed of relevance,” according to Randy Crites, vice president and general manager at Lockheed Martin Advanced Programs.

Read more at American Machinist

Novo Nordisk's Wegovy Pill Makes Encouraging Start

Novo ​Nordisk's Wegovy weight-loss pill has made an encouraging start after its launch this month, analysts said on Friday citing early U.S. prescription ‌data, with investors watching closely its battle with U.S. rival Eli Lilly. The U.S. prescription data only covers four days, but gives a glimpse into the performance of the first such pill to hit the weight-loss market as drugmakers shift towards cash-pay consumer models. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration is expected to make a decision on Lilly's experimental pill by April.

The Danish company, under a new CEO who took over last year, is betting on the pill version of its blockbuster Wegovy treatment to help attract new consumers ‌as the drugmaker looks to regain ground on Lilly after profit warnings and slowing growth weighed on its shares last ​year. "Early signs are positive and we are encouraged by feedback from our collaborators," Novo said in a statement, though it added it was too early to speak about trends for the daily pill.

Read more at Reuters

Amazon Is Buying America’s First New Copper Output – Produced with Bacteria and Acid - in More Than a Decade

Amazon.com is turning to an Arizona mine that last year became the first new source of U.S. copper in more than a decade, to meet its data centers’ ravenous appetite for the industrial metal. The mine was restarted as a proving ground for Rio Tinto’s RIO 0.55%increase; green up pointing triangle new method of unlocking low-grade copper deposits. Rio signed a two-year supply pact with Amazon Web Services, a vote of confidence for its Nuton venture, which uses bacteria and acid to extract copper from ore that was previously uneconomical to process.

The move by Amazon is the latest example of a technology company rushing to secure the power and critical materials necessary to build and operate artificial-intelligence data centers. Rio deployed its bioleaching process in the recent restart of a mine east of Tucson and has partnerships to take the technology to several others in the Americas. The idea is to uncork the low-grade ore left behind at old mines and is key to Rio’s plans to boost output when new discoveries are harder than ever to bring online and copper demand is surging.

Read more at the WSJ

How is Bombardier Growing its North American Manufacturing?

Aviation and aerospace component manufacturer Bombardier is investing US$72m in a new 126,000 sq ft manufacturing centre in Dorval, Canada. The centre has been part-funded by a US$25m repayable loan from Investissement Québec’s ESSOR programme – a deal announced by Canada’s Minister of Economy, Innovation and Energy, Christine Fréchette. The new centre will complement Bombardier’s existing facilities, with the goal of further increasing production capacity and productivity. Opening is scheduled before the end of 2027.

According to Bombardier, its state-of-the-art centre in Dorval marks a “significant milestone” in its growth strategy. Bombardier says: “The project is part of the company’s long-term strategy to boost productivity as it responds to growing demand for its business aircraft. “This new facility, set to open before the end of 2027, is expected to create skilled job opportunities.” In Quebec, Bombardier creates 10,000 direct jobs and is a direct source for over 31% of aerospace employment.

Read more at Manufacturing Digital

Delta Picks Boeing for New Widebodies

Delta Air Lines has made an estimated $17-billion commitment to update its widebody fleet with up to 60 Boeing 787 Dreamliner aircraft. According to Boeing’s announcement, Delta's purchase of 30 787-10 jets – and purchase options for up to 30 more – will pace the carriers airline's expansion and modernization program for trans-Atlantic and South American routes. The delivery schedule for the new aircraft has not been announced. With this booking, Delta now has firm orders for 130 Boeing aircraft, including 100 737 MAX-10 aircraft.

The 787 Dreamliner is a twin-engine, long-range wide-body jet in service since 2011 and offered in three variants, with carrying capacity for 210 to 330 passengers. Boeing has collected a total of 2,325 orders for the 787 series jets, with 1,026 orders still to be filled. The 787-10 is the largest variant of the Dreamliner series, typically arranged to carry 300 to 330 passengers in a two-class layout. Boeing is expanding its 787 assembly complex in North Charleston, S.C., to manage the growing demand for its widebody jets.

Read more at American Machinist

Global Leaders Gather in Switzerland to Ponder the Future of a Messy World

World leaders, corporate executives and figures from civil society are convening in Davos, Switzerland, this week for the World Economic Forum. All eyes are almost certain to be on one high-ranking guest: President Trump, who plans to attend with a large delegation including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Steve Witkoff, the special envoy to the Middle East. Topics of discussion at Davos — according to U.S. and European analysts and former policymakers interviewed ahead of the event — are likely to include Russia’s war with Ukraine; prospects for global trade and markets; the probability of China invading Taiwan; and the risks of a Middle East flare-up caused by the recent uprising in Iran.

Donald Trump will speak at the Forum on Wednesday, as the global community struggles to assess the impact of his action in Venezuela, his hardline stance towards Iran and slow progress toward a peace deal for Ukraine. The World Economic Forum designated this year as “The Spirit of Dialogue,” but the organization itself has warned in its latest Global Risk Report that “rules and institutions that have long underpinned stability are under siege in a new era in which trade, finance and technology are wielded as weapons of influence.”

Read more at The NYT

Regeneron’s Chief Scientist, George Yancopoulos, On Trump’s Drug Pricing Policy, Gene Therapy, And The Problem With AI

George Yancopoulos has been the chief scientist at Regeneron since it was founded in 1988, and was a leading force behind the development of the company’s medicines, including the eye drug Eylea and Dupixent, an antibody originally approved to treat atopic dermatitis but now used for other autoimmune diseases. (Yancopolos points out that it’s cleared for a huge number of conditions.)

STAT sat down with Yancopoulos at the J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference, where he was, as usual, incredibly outspoken. He said that he enjoys the annual meeting, where he thrives on continuous social interaction, conversation, and argument. However, he misses his morning trail runs in the woods in New York, which he said is where he does a lot of his scientific thinking. Below are a few exchanges from their conversation, edited a bit for clarity but substantially for length. Among other things they talked about President Trump’s “most-favored nations” policy on drug pricing and why Regeneron is the only company among 17 to receive presidential letters urging them to lower prices that hasn’t yet struck a deal.

Read more at STAT

Quote of the Day

“If your actions create a legacy that inspires others to dream more, learn more, do more and become more, then, you are an excellent leader.”

Dolly Parton - American Musician and Entrepreneur who was born on this day in 1946.

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