Member Briefing January 21, 2026

Posted By: Harold King Daily Briefing,

Manufacturing Output, Capacity Utilization Grew Modestly In December

  • Key manufacturing indicators posted modest gains in December, but there is still room for improvement in capacity utilization and other areas. According to a statistical release from the Federal Reserve, industrial production increased 0.4% in December and grew at an annual rate of 0.7% in the fourth quarter. Manufacturing output rose 0.2% in December, but declined at an annual rate of 0.7% in the fourth quarter. In addition, capacity utilization stepped up to 76.3%, which is 3.2% below its 1972–2024 average. The Federal Reserve said that most of the major market groups posted gains in December, and all of the major market group indexes ended the year above their year-earlier levels. In particular:
  • The output of consumer goods increased 0.7%, as a 1.1% rise in nondurables production outweighed a 0.7% decline in durables production.
  • The index for business equipment grew 0.8%, supported by increases in the indexes for transit and for industrial and other equipment.
  • The durable manufacturing index edged up 0.1%, with large contributions from growth in the output of primary metals (2.4%), electrical equipment, appliances, and components (1.7%); and aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment (1.5%).
  • Wood products, nonmetallic mineral products, and motor vehicles and parts all posted declines of at least 1%.
  • The nondurable manufacturing index increased 0.3%, with increases for food, beverage, and tobacco products, petroleum and coal products, and plastics and rubber products offsetting decreases in the other nondurable manufacturing indexes.
  • The output of durables was 3.1% above its year-earlier level, and the output of nondurables was 1% above its year-earlier level.

Read more at Manufacturing Dive

Hochul Proposes $260 Billion State Budget To Offset Federal Cuts, Includes Three-Year Corporate N.Y. Tax Extension

New York Gov. Kathy Hochul on Tuesday announced her executive budget proposal totaling $260 billion that comes with offsetting cuts in federal funding but no increase in income taxes. The fiscal year 2027-2028 state budget proposal is a slight increase – 0.7% – from last year, primarily, Hochul said, to make up for those federal cuts. Hochul said this year, the state will see a $10.3 billion decrease in federal funding – an 11.4% decrease in just the last year – and state operating funds will increase to $157.6 billion. The state has $14.6 billion in maintained reserves.

In addition to no tax increases, the governor’s proposal would eliminate taxes on tipped wages up to $25,000 per year and provide $30 million in targeted relief for farmers impacted by tariffs. The governor, who is seeking re-election in November, wants to extend higher taxes on corporations that net over $5 million in profits through fiscal year 2029. The increased COVID-era tax on businesses, that Hochul originally decided would sunset April 1, is poised to generate an additional $1.6 billion annually as the governor faces increasing pressure from New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani and progressives to hike taxes on millionaires and billionaires.

Read more at NY State of Politics

U.S. 30-Year Treasury Yield Jumps 9 Basis Points As Trade War Fears Reignite

U.S. Treasury yields jumped on Tuesday as investors weighed renewed tariff threats from Washington that revived fears of a trade war with Europe and spurred a flight from U.S. assets. Yields on the benchmark 10-year Treasury were last seen trading more than 5 basis points higher at 4.289%. Yields on longer-dated 20- and 30-year Treasurys spiked, adding more than 8 basis points to trade at around 4.88% and 4.925%, respectively. One basis point is equal to 0.01%, and yields and prices move in opposite directions. Along with U.S. equities, the U.S. dollar came under pressure. The dollar index was down around 1%.

Trump announced on Saturday that eight European allies would face increasing tariffs, starting at 10% on Feb. 1 and rising to 25% on June 1, if a deal is not reached that allows Washington to “buy” Greenland, a semi-autonomous Danish territory. The tariffs would potentially target Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the U.K., the Netherlands, and Finland, Trump said. European leaders have described Trump’s fresh tariff threats as “unacceptable,” and are reportedly considering countermeasures — with France said to be pushing for the European Union to use its strongest economic counter-threat, known as the “Anti-Coercion Instrument.”

Read more at CNBC

Middle East

Ukraine

Venezuela

 

Other World Headlines

Advertisement

Your ad here! Contact Harold King to learn more

Top Appropriators Release Text For Four Remaining Appropriations Bills

The House Appropriations Committee on Tuesday rolled out its last four remaining appropriations bills, as lawmakers race to meet the Jan. 30 funding deadline.  The last four bills would fund the departments of Homeland Security, Defense, Transportation, Housing and Urban Development, Health and Human Services, Labor, Education and other related agencies. With the House set to recess next week, lawmakers will need to push the four bills through the floor this week.

House Appropriations Committee Ranking Member Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.) said in a statement that the bill reduces funding for ICE enforcement and removal operations by $115 million, reduces the number of ICE detention beds by 5,500 and cuts Border Patrol funding by $1.8 billion, among other things. The bill would keep the “overall budget for the agency flat,” according to a news release. The Health and Human Services bill doesn’t include an extension of Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies, which Democrats have been pushing for.

Read more at The Hill

A Big Bet on Apprenticeships in a Frozen Labor Market

For the better part of a year, the Trump Administration said little about apprenticeships. Then last week it announced a $145 million funding forecast aimed at expanding Pay for Apprenticeship—one of the largest investments in years. Early on, the President issued an Executive Order calling for one million apprentices and indicating apprenticeship as a central workforce strategy. But that ambition amounted to little more than lip service, as Biden-era apprenticeship contracts were either canceled or stagnated.

Pay for Apprenticeship — also known as Pay for Success — ties public dollars to real results: apprentices hired, trained, and retained. In a frozen labor market, this policy focuses on what works, not what makes headlines. That makes it a welcome—and somewhat surprising—dose of pragmatism in a policy landscape often driven by ideology. The forecast also acknowledges a basic truth long ignored in Washington: employers rarely build apprenticeship programs on their own. They rely on intermediaries—industry associations, unions, nonprofits, and technical experts—to design training, manage registration, recruit apprentices, and maintain standards. Without this infrastructure, apprenticeship policies remain aspirational rather than operational.

Read more at Real Clear Education

Learn more about the Council of Industry Intermediary Apprentice Program

 

Americans Are the Ones Paying for Tariffs, Study Finds

Americans, not foreigners, are bearing almost the entire cost of U.S. tariffs, according to new research that contradicts a key claim by President Trump and suggests he might have a weaker hand in a reemerging trade war with Europe. The new research, published Monday by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, a well-regarded German think tank, suggests that the impact of tariffs is likely to show up over time in the form of higher U.S. consumer prices. Rather than acting as a tax on foreign producers, the tariffs functioned as a consumption tax on Americans, the report said.

The German research echoes recent reports by the Budget Lab at Yale and economists at Harvard Business School, finding that only a small fraction of the tariff costs were being borne by foreign producers. By analyzing $4 trillion of shipments between January 2024 and November 2025, the Kiel Institute researchers found that foreign exporters absorbed only about 4% of the burden of last year’s U.S. tariff increases by lowering their prices, while American consumers and importers absorbed 96%. “There is no such thing as foreigners transferring wealth to the U.S. in the form of tariffs,” said Julian Hinz, an economics professor at Germany’s Bielefeld University who co-authored the study. The $200 billion in additional U.S. tariff revenue last year “was paid almost exclusively by Americans,” Hinz said. That is likely to fuel higher U.S. inflation over time, he said.

Read more at The WSJ

More Policy and Politics Headlines

Breast Cancer Blood Test Can Predict Treatment Response

A blood test can predict how well patients with advanced breast cancer will respond to targeted therapies – before treatment begins, according to new research. A team from The Institute of Cancer Research, London, used a liquid biopsy to detect the presence of tiny amounts of cancer DNA in the blood – at the start of treatment, and four weeks into the treatment. They compared the levels of this DNA with patients’ outcomes – including how long it took for a cancer to grow, and how well the cancer was responding to treatment.

The researchers, based at the Breast Cancer Now Toby Robins Research Centre at The Institute of Cancer Research (ICR), saw a strong association between low levels of ctDNA at the start of treatment, and treatment response. A similar association was seen after four weeks – one treatment cycle. The results show that it is possible to monitor how well treatment is working through a non-invasive blood test, meaning patients who are not responding well could be identified and moved to alternative treatments sooner.

Read more at The Institute of Cancer Research

Upcoming Council Programs

Events

Manufacturing Advocacy Day - Tuesday February 24, 2026 -7:45 AM - 3:00 PM. The Fort Orange Club, State Capitol Building and Legislative Office Building, Albany.

Manufacturing Champions Award Breakfast - Thursday May 7, 2026 -7:45 - 10:00 AM. West Hills Country Club, Middletown.

Networks

Health & Safety Sub Council Meeting Topic TBD, February 12, 2026, 8:30 - 10:30. Location TBD

Insight Exchange On Demand Webinars

Webinars and Seminars

Check back soon

Training

Making a Profit In Manufactuirng This course is designed to provide supervisors and team leaders with the financial acumen essential for maximizing profitability and reducing operational risks. January 20 & 21, 8:30 - 12:30 Via Zoom.

Human Resource Management Issues This identifies and explains key legal issues that a manager may have to address in the workplace today. It helps current and future managers realize their responsibility to understand and enforce the employment laws that speak to these issues and minimize their chances of ending up in court. February 3 & 4, 8:30 - 12:30 Via Zoom.

Effective Business Communication This course is designed to build core communication skills essential in professional settings. Topics covered include identifying appropriate communication channels, honing active listening skills, and mastering techniques like paraphrasing, summarizing, and clarifying for better interpersonal communication. February 17 & 18, 8:30 - 12:30 Via Zoom.

FILLING FAST Lean Six Sigma Green Belt This program combines online coursework, with live Zoom sessions, to deliver a flexible and effective learning experience in Lean Six Sigma methodologies. Most Mondays March 2 - June 8 Via Zoom.

(Special Info session for those who are 'Green Belt curious' February 23rd)

Lean Six Sigma: Yellow Belt - Yellow Belt is an approach to process improvement that merges the complementary concepts and tools from both Six Sigma and Lean approaches. 3 Full days - March 9,10 & 11 - DCC Fishkill.

Trade Wars

China’s Economic Momentum Weakens Despite Meeting 5% Growth Goal

China’s economy expanded at a 5% annual pace in 2025, buoyed by strong exports despite U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs. However, growth slowed to a 4.5% rate in the last quarter of the year, the government said Monday. That was the slowest quarterly growth since late 2022, when China was beginning to loosen stringent COVID-19 pandemic restrictions. The economy, the world’s second largest, grew at a 4.8% annual pace in the previous quarter. China’s leaders have been trying to spur faster growth after a slump in the property market and disruptions from the pandemic rippled through the economy.

Strong exports helped to compensate for weak consumer spending and business investment, contributing to a record trade surplus of $1.2 trillion. China’s leaders have repeatedly highlighted boosting domestic demand as a policy focus, but their effects have so far been limited. A trade-in program for drivers to replace older cars with more energy-efficient models, for example, has been losing steam in recent months. China has also provided trade-in subsidies for home appliances such as refrigerators, washing machines and TVs. While major consumer stimulus policies in 2025 -- including such subsidies -- are set to continue in 2026, they may be scaled back.

Read more at AP

Greenland Row Looms Over Davos

he escalating showdown between the U.S. and its NATO allies over the fate of Greenland looks set to be a dominant topic of conversation as leaders gather at this week's World Economic Forum event in Davos, with U.S. President Donald Trump again declaring on Monday that American ownership of the Arctic island is "imperative." Trump said in a post to social media that, following a phone call with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, "I agreed to a meeting of the various parties in Davos, Switzerland. As I expressed to everyone, very plainly, Greenland is imperative for National and World Security. There can be no going back -- On that, everyone agrees!"

European leaders, meanwhile, continued to push back on Trump's ambitions and publicize their coordination efforts on the issue. National security advisers from a number of countries are due to meet on the sidelines of the event on Monday, with Greenland among the subjects on the agenda, diplomatic sources said. One European diplomat, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said Greenland had been added to the agenda of the previously scheduled meeting after Trump on Saturday to impose extra tariffs on eight European countries until the U.S. is allowed to buy the Arctic island.

Read more at the ABC

US Power Use To Beat Record Highs In 2026 And 2027, EIA Says

U.S. power consumption, which hit its second straight record high in 2025, will rise further in 2026 and 2027, the Energy Information Administration said in its Short-Term Energy Outlook on Tuesday. The EIA projected power demand will rise from a record 4,198 billion kWh in 2025 to 4,256 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) in 2026 and 4,364 billion kWh in 2027. The EIA forecast power sales in 2026 will rise to 1,519 billion kWh for residential consumers, 1,522 billion kWh for commercial customers, and 1,069 billion kWh for industrial customers.

As renewable output rises, the EIA said the share of power generation from natural gas would slide from 40% in 2025 to 39% in 2026 and 2027. Coal's share will fall from 17% in 2025 to 15% in 2026 and 2027. The percentage of renewable generation will rise from around 24% in 2025 to 25% in 2026 and 28% in 2027, while nuclear power's share will rise from 18% in 2025 to 19% in 2026 before sliding back to 18% in 2027, according to the outlook. The EIA projected gas sales in 2026 would decline to 12.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) for residential consumers, 9.4 bcfd for commercial customers, and 23.1 bcfd for industrial customers, but rise to 35.8 bcfd for power generation.

Read more at Reuters

Rail Regulator Sends $71.5 Billion Union Pacific-Norfolk Southern Deal Back for Redo

Union Pacific UNP -0.44%decrease; red down pointing triangle and Norfolk Southern’s merger application is incomplete, a U.S. railroad regulator said Friday, a setback for the two companies’ efforts to unite their systems in a $71.5 billion deal. The Surface Transportation Board rejected the application as a result of the incomplete status. The regulator said the application had insufficient information on the proposed combined company’s projected market share and lacked other necessary documents.

The agency invited the companies to revise and resubmit the application, adding a hurdle that is likely to delay what was already expected to be a lengthy merger-review process. The decision didn’t address broader concerns about rail consolidation and price increases that have been raised by unions and rival companies in recent months. “The decision doesn’t result in the dismissal of the merger proceeding, and applicants are permitted to file a revised application in the docket, which would commence a new review by the Board for completeness,” the agency said Friday. A Union Pacific spokeswoman said the company will provide the additional information requested to the STB. A Norfolk Southern spokeswoman deferred to Union Pacific.

Read more at the WSJ

Allegiant’s Impending Purchase Of Sun Country Airlines Could Mean More Flights For SWF

Allegiant Travel said last week it is acquiring fellow leisure carrier Sun Country in a $1.5 billion cash and stock deal, including debt, a plan that comes as budget airlines in the U.S. have faced a surge in costs following the pandemic and an increase in domestic capacity. “Our two complementary airlines will create the leading, more competitive, leisure-focused airline in the U.S.,” Allegiant CEO Greg Anderson said in an interview. Both Las Vegas-based Allegiant and Minneapolis-based Sun Country focus on cost-conscious travelers, connecting smaller cities to sun, beach and other vacation destinations.

The two carriers have faced fewer headwinds than other low-cost airlines, changing capacity around to meet demand, analysts noted. Sun Country also flies charters, as well as packages for Amazon , a business Anderson said was crucial to the deal. The airlines’ CEOs discussed their proposed combination with Amazon beforehand, he said. Local business leadeerrs are hopeful the transaction could mean additional flights for Stewart where Allegiant flies to destinations in Florida and South Carolina.

Read more at CNBC

Mazda Reportedly Puts Its New EV On The Backburner To Focus On Hybrids

After the slow-selling MX-30, Mazda went knee-deep in developing an all-new EV based on a dedicated electric platform, which was supposed to go into production next year. That plan, however, has been scrapped. The upcoming EV, which is expected to be a mid-size crossover, has now been delayed by at least two years, with production slated to start in 2029 at the earliest, according to Japanese newspapers Nikkei and Nikkan Jidosha, quoted by Automotive News. Blame tariffs, changing emissions regulations and the cancellation of the $7,500 federal tax credit, which have taken a huge toll on big players in the industry, let alone a small, independent company like Mazda.

In a statement sent to Automotive News, a Mazda spokesperson said that the company is still assessing the timeline of its EV rollout. “This information has not been released by our company,” the spokesperson said. “We continue to advance the technological development of our proprietary BEVs based on our multisolution strategy and will determine the timing of their introduction while carefully assessing regulatory trends in each country and changes in customer needs.”

Read more at Inside EVs

3M Forecasts Annual Profit Below Estimates Amid Sluggish Consumer Demand

Industrial giant ‍3M forecast annual profit slightly below Wall Street’s expectation on Tuesday, pointing ‍to a challenging ‍and uneven demand ‍backdrop, even as it tightens costs to shield margins. Weak demand in the United States, softer ‌retail ‌markets and discretionary spending pressures continued to weigh ​on the company’s consumer segment, home to products such as Scotch tape and Post-it notes. Fourth-quarter sales at the segment, which made up more than 20% of the company’s 2024 revenue, fell ⁠1.2% from a year ago — in contrast to a rise in 3M’s remaining business segments.

3M reported a fourth-quarter operating margin of 23.4%, up from 21.4% the year earlier. It targets an operating margin ⁠of 25% by the end of 2027. The company’s adjusted profit stood at $1.83 per share during the period, compared ‍with analysts’ estimate of $1.80 per share. The company forecast 2026 adjusted profit of between $8.50 and $8.70 per share, with the midpoint falling 1 cent below the estimates of $8.61, according to data compiled by LSEG.

Read more at CNBC

Valentino, ‘The Last Emperor’ of High Fashion, Dies at 93

A history of the second half the 20th century could be written through the prism of the women who wore Valentino. From Audrey Hepburn to Nancy Reagan, Princess Diana to Jennifer Lopez, Valentino was the go-to designer for the rich, famous, powerful arnd glamorous. With Giancarlo Giammetti, his partner in life and business, he presided over the eponymous fashion house that made him one of the most dominant figures in the world of high fashion—his impossibly deep, bronze tan as recognizable as the Valentino V and signature color, Valentino Red, of his designs.

Valentino refused to use the runway to make artistic statements, and was often baffled by what he saw as unwearable designs from other fashion houses. “I make dresses for women who actually wear them,” he said. Trends came and went, but Valentino was dismissive, even at times disgusted by them. “Forget about fashion—the grunge look, the messy look. I cannot see women destroyed, uncombed, or strange,” he told Vanity Fair in 2004. “I want to make a girl who arrives someplace and makes people turn and say: You look sensational!’” He died Monday at his home in Rome, according to a statement from the Valentino Garavani and Giancarlo Giammetti Foundation. He was 93 years old.

Read more at The WSJ

Daily Market Update Jan 20, 2026

The Feb ’26 natural gas contract is trading up $0.85 at $3.95. The Feb ‘26 crude oil contract is up $0.75 at $60.19

 

Read more at NRG

Learn more about the Council of Industry Energy Buying Group

Quote of the Day

“The great enemy of clear language is insincerity. When there is a gap between one’s real and one’s declared aims, one turns as it were instinctively to long words and exhausted idioms, like a cuttlefish spurting out ink.”

George Orwell (Eric Blair) - English Author of 'Animal Farm' and '1984,' who died on this day in 1950.

If you’re part of a Council of Industry member company and not yet subscribed, email usIf you’re not a Council member, become one today.

Facebook  Instagram  LinkedIn  X  Youtube