Member Briefing July 23, 2026

Roundup of July Economic Indicators for U.S. Manufacturers

Manufacturing is sustaining its longest expansion in years, and cost pressures are showing their first meaningful signs of relief, though trade conditions deteriorated sharply in May and hiring remains uneven. Here's the roundup:

• Manufacturing output was little changed in June as modest gains in petroleum and apparel were largely offset by weakness in machinery and wood products (Federal Reserve)
• U.S. manufacturing activity expanded for a sixth consecutive month in June, with demand and production holding firm and hiring conditions improving notably (Institute for Supply Management)
• The U.S. trade deficit surged in May to its widest level of the year, as exports declined broadly and imports climbed across consumer goods, automotive vehicles, and industrial supplies (U.S. Census Bureau; U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis)
• New orders for manufactured goods dipped in May after four consecutive months of gains, though shipments, backlogs, and inventories all continued to rise (U.S. Census Bureau)
• Manufacturing added 3,000 jobs in June as durable goods gains were offset by nondurable losses, while the broader economy added just 57,000 jobs (U.S. Department of Labor)
• Producer prices fell in June for the first time in months, driven by a sharp drop in energy costs, though the 12-month gain remains elevated (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
• Regional manufacturing conditions were broadly positive, with New York and Philadelphia reaching multi-year highs, while Texas continued to slow and Kansas City reported limited ability to pass through rising input costs (Federal Reserve regional surveys)

Read more Detail at IndustryNet

Escalating Middle East War Could Slash Global Growth To 1.3% In 2026, World Bank Chief Economist Says

Escalating hostilities between the United States and Iran ​could reignite inflation, drive interest rates higher and knock global growth back to as low as 1.3%, down from 2.9% last year, World Bank chief ‌economist Indermit Gill told Reuters. Gill, who retires at the end of August, said the bank had modelled three outcomes in its June economic forecast given the high uncertainty surrounding the war in the Middle East, but the worst-case scenario with hostilities lasting six months or more has already come close to materializing, he said in a late Tuesday interview. Under that scenario, global headline inflation would reach 4.5%.

Gill said poor countries that had not recovered from the COVID pandemic could face greater food insecurity, while nations with high debt levels would be hit by rising borrowing costs as interest rates climbed, squeezing spending on education, health and other vital services. The World Bank's June forecast showed that 40% of low- and middle-income countries were either already in debt distress or at high risk of falling into it. "It's just a slow-moving train wreck," Gill said, noting that countries that serviced their debts ​would wind up draining resources from education, health ​and other areas needed to fuel future ⁠growth.

Read more at Reuters

Mortgage Rates Are Rising Again, But Homebuyers Are Seeing Some Advantages

Mortgage rates continued their climb last week, but homebuyers trickled back into the market, perhaps taking advantage of less competition and some price cuts. That helped push total mortgage demand last week 1.9% higher compared with the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances, $832,750 or less, increased to 6.69% from 6.65%, with points decreasing to 0.62 from 0.67, including the origination fee, for loans with a 20% down payment. That was the highest rate since last August.

Refinance demand, which is highly sensitive to weekly rate moves, fell 2% for the week and was just 7% higher than the same week one year ago. Last year at this time, the average on the 30-year fixed loan was just 15 basis points higher. Applications for a mortgage to purchase a home rose 6% for the week and were 0.2% higher year over year -- basically flat. Potential buyers are starting to get a little break, as the market settles into its historically slower summer months. Real estate agents in CNBC’s Housing Market Survey report sellers seem to be more willing to cut prices.

Read more at CNBC

Iran and the Middle East

• U.S. Surges Forces Toward Middle East, Giving Trump Options to Expand Iran War - WSJ
• Trump Says US Will Destroy A Bridge Or Power Plant For Each Iranian Attack In The Strait Of Hormuz – AP
• Iran Strikes On CIA Facilities Prompt Questions About Possible Russian Role - Reuters
• Iran Shows Its Ballistic Missiles Are Still a Force to Reckon With - WSJ
• Trump Witnesses Return Of US Soldiers Killed In Iran War -Reuters
• Houthis Strike Tankers In Red Sea As Second Oil Chokepoint Looms - Reuters
• Lebanese Army Enters Southern Town After Israeli Withdrawal, In First Test Of US-Brokered Deal - Reuters
• Iran’s Demands Over The Strait Of Hormuz Would Set A Dangerous Precedent, Rubio Warns Asian Leaders - AP
• Interactive Map – US and Israeli Attack in Iran – ArcGIS Story Maps
• Map – Conflicts in the Middle East – Live Universal Awareness Map

Ukraine

• Zelenskiy Speaks To US Envoys, Discusses Weapons – Reuters
• The New Commander-In-Chief Of Ukraine’s Armed Forces Forged His Reputation Fighting Russia In 2014 - AP
• A Year In A Foxhole: How One Ukrainian Soldier Survived Beneath The Front Lines - Reuters
• Ukraine’s Drone Strikes Pile Pressure On Russian Economy - Politico
• Ukraine Hits More Warehouses Of Russia's Top Online Retailer Wildberries - Reuters
• Lifting Russian Athletes Ban Only Helps Putin, Ukraine Tells IOC - Politico
• Interactive Map: Assessed Control Of Terrain In Ukraine – Institute For The Study Of War
• Map – Tracking Russia’s Invasion Of Ukraine – Live Universal Awareness Map

Other World Headlines

• South Korea Economy Expands 0.6% q/q In Q2, Better Than Expected – Reuters
• Cuban Americans Who Lost Property in 1959 Revolution Seek Compensation - WSJ
• Louvre Gallery Where Jewelry Heist Took Place To Reopen To Public – France 24
• Merz Turns Resignation Of Party Bigwig To His Advantage - Politico
• Germany Greenlights Controversial Joint French-Russian Nuclear Project – France 24
• Rescuers In Afghanistan Search For Scores Missing After Floods Kill At Least 23 - AP
• China’s Shadowy Maritime Militia Is Worryingly Active – The Economist
• Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro Back To Court For Pretrial Hearing In His US Drug Trafficking Case - CNBC

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House Passes Stopgap Measure To Fund Federal Government

The House on Tuesday passed a stopgap measure that would fund federal agencies at existing levels through Dec. 4, in an effort to avert a potential government shutdown before the end of the fiscal year on Sept. 30.  The lower chamber voted 220-205 to pass the measure. Six Democrats and Rep. Kevin Kiley (I-Calif.) joined 213 Republicans in supporting the bill. Only one Republican opposed the bill.

The move comes as the House so far has only passed three appropriations bills funding national security, the State Department and other relevant programs; agriculture, rural development, the Food and Drug Administration and related agencies; and military construction, the Department of Veterans Affairs and related agencies. And over in the Senate, Republican and Democratic appropriators have yet to break through an impasse over government funding. “This clean, short-term continuing resolution simply keeps the government open, protects the progress we’ve made, and preserves the path to full-year appropriations,” House Appropriations Committee Chair Tom Cole (R-Okla.) said in remarks on the House floor Tuesday.

Read more at The Hill

House Narrowly Passes Annual Defense Authorization Bill

House lawmakers on Wednesday narrowly passed a nearly $1.15 trillion annual defense policy bill. The tally was 216-212, with six Democrats voting for the bill and seven Republicans voting against it. The National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) expands U.S. defense production capacity, raises all service members’ pay by five to seven percent, authorizes $1.8 billion for barracks and family housing, and expands access to education and childcare for military families. The legislation authorizes $56 billion for aircraft development, including for next-generation fighter jets, B-21 Raiders, P-8 maritime patrol planes, F-35s, Chinook and Blackhawk helicopters.

It greenlights more than $60 billion in funding for construction and support of a fourth Columbia-class ballistic missile submarine, two Virginia-class submarines and two Arleigh-Burke class destroyers. The bill also codifies a number of Trump administration executive orders, including building the Golden Dome, one of President Trump’s top defense priorities. The NDAA typically enjoys broader bipartisan support but has faced challenges on Capitol Hill this year amid the Iran war. Democrats blocked the Senate’s version of the legislation in the upper chamber last week.

Read more at The Hill

Trump Restricts Supply Chain Waivers For US Defense Industrial Base

President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Monday limiting defense contractors’ waiver access to procure critical minerals and components from foreign entities of concern such as China, in a bid to safeguard domestic end-to-end supply chains. Beginning Jan. 1, 2027, the defense secretary and military heads will stop issuing waivers for parts or critical minerals made or processed by those foreign entities. Under a strategic materials law, the Department of Defense is prohibited from acquiring equipment such as aircraft, weapons, ships and tanks, containing components made from foreign entities of concern such as Russia.

The order requires defense contractors to form a mitigation plan that identifies materials required by law without a waiver and document all efforts to obtain components covered by the legislation. They must also detail steps taken to remove non-compliant materials from their supply chains and establish a strict timeline to implement the plan. In addition, contractors must describe every step of a component’s end-to-end supply chain process, tracing them back to the raw material’s origin, according to the directive. They must also conduct supply chain risk assessments and screen and vet all their suppliers and subcontractors, including financial challenges and materials or components made by foreign entities of concern.

Read more at Manufacturing Dive

More Policy and Politics Headlines

• Hegseth Hearing Shows Tough Fight Ahead For Iran War Supplemental – The Hill
• Hegseth Says Iran Is Weakened, But Won’t Give Timeline For War’s End - Politico
• Massachusetts Voters To Decide Marijuana Repeal Question After Challenge Rejected – The Hill
• Mamdani Says New York Doesn’t Have Authority to Arrest Netanyahu - WSJ
• Who Is Darline Graham? Her Colleagues Say They Are Still Learning. - Politico
• ‘Worse Than People Expect': Jamie Dimon Sounds Alarm About The Next Credit Crisis — Here's What Big Bank Earnings Show - Yahoo
• Democrats Confident About Senate Despite Platner, Left-Wing Drama – The Hill
• US Senate Panel To Vote On Chinese Vehicle Crackdown Bill - Reuters
• Harris 2028 White House Bid ‘Not Going To Happen’: Former Biden Aide – The Hill
• ‘A Politically Impossible Situation’: New Poll Shows Trump Voters Losing Patience With Iran War - Politico
• New Jersey’s Noncitizen Voting Reveal Is a Nightmare for Democrats – Euro News

Here's What The ‘Use By’ Date On Your Food Really Means

Terms like best by, use by, sell by, best before, and expires on may seem synonymous but aren't. And this confusion can lead people to discard food unnecessarily, resulting in wasted money—to the tune of $150 billion among U.S. households, according to the survey—and contribute to the global problem of food waste.  “Food product dating rarely indicates when the food is safe to eat,” says Nicole Arnold, an assistant professor and food safety field specialist at the Ohio State University. Instead, she adds, “almost all food product dating in the United States represents how long a product will maintain its peak quality”—which may mean how long it’ll retain characteristics like taste, color, texture, and nutritional value.

Packaged deli meats, bacon, and hot dogs should be thrown away based on the label date for food safety reasons; the same is true for packaged meats, poultry, fish and seafood. With all of these, the concern is that bacteria (such as listeria, E. coli, and salmonella) in that item could multiply as time goes by, which means you could get a foodborne illness from consuming it. There’s some leeway when it comes to the dates stamped on the packages of dairy products, including milk, sour cream, and yogurt. As long as they’re refrigerated at 40-degrees Fahrenheit or below, you may still be able to use it after the date has passed. With snack foods, cereals, crackers, cookies, condiments, sauces, juices, pastas, rice, and condiments, you can use your senses—by smelling, looking at, and tasting the item—to assess whether you want to eat it after the date stamped on the package.

Read more at National Geographic

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Trade Wars

• N.Y. Contractors Brace For Impact Of New Canada Tariffs – NY State Of Politics
• Trump Plans Generic Drug Tariffs From 2028 With Two-Year Delay Testing U.S. Onshoring Push - CNBC
• EU Says Trump’s New Generic Drug Tariffs Won’t Hit Its Exports - Politico
• Altana Acquires AI Platform to Tackle Customs Complexity – WSJ

AMD and Anthropic Sign Major Chips-and-Investment Deal

Advanced Micro Devices and Anthropic have signed a deal for tens of billions of dollars’ worth of artificial-intelligence servers, strengthening AMD’s competitive position against industry leader Nvidia and supplying Anthropic with much needed computing power. Under the terms of the agreement, Anthropic will purchase up to 2 gigawatts of AMD’s latest-generation chips, called the Instinct MI450, starting in the first half of 2027. AMD will also invest up to $5 billion in Anthropic—its first check into the AI firm—as certain deployment milestones are met.

AMD is also in talks to provide a financial backstop for Anthropic’s future data-center leases as well, according to a person with direct knowledge of the talks. Large technology companies with investment-grade credit ratings have increasingly been in talks to back the leases or debt of AI startups that otherwise wouldn’t be able to raise capital at favorable terms. AMD has spent the past few years racing to build its position in the market for selling GPUs. The company has benefited from a surge in demand from AI developers seeking to diversify away from Nvidia. It recently signed large deals with OpenAI and Meta Platforms and is competing to win over younger AI startups as customers.

Read more at The WSJ

OpenAI Model Escapes, Hacks Rival

ChatGPT maker OpenAI said Tuesday that its artificial intelligence system hacked into another AI company on its own in what the company called an “unprecedented cyber incident.” “We had a significant security incident during evaluation of our models,” OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said in a statement posted on social media. AI startup Hugging Face said last week that it had detected an intrusion into its data processing systems that it suspected was caused by an AI agent autonomously acting on its own.

OpenAI said the intrusion was caused by a combination of its AI models, including its newly released GPT‑5.6 Sol and an “even more capable” model that is still being tested internally. OpenAI said its AI used stolen credentials and discovered a previously unknown vulnerability to access Hugging Face servers. It went to “extreme lengths to achieve a rather narrow testing goal” and “found ways to gain access to secret information that it could use to cheat the evaluation,” the company said. “AI is accelerating the discovery and exploitation of vulnerabilities,” OpenAI said in its statement Tuesday. “The primary lesson from this incident is that model security and safety must keep pace with rapidly advancing capabilities.”

Read more at AP

GM Beats On Earnings, Raises Guidance Amid ‘Resilient’ Consumer, Pricing

General Motors raised several key 2026 earnings forecasts Tuesday after beating Wall Street’s second-quarter expectations as the company’s North American operations continue to drive its results. The raised guidance includes full-year adjusted earnings before interest and taxes of between $14 billion and $16 billion, or $12 and $14 adjusted EPS, up from previous guidance of $13.5 billion to $15.5 billion, or $11.50 to $13.50 adjusted EPS, previously. It also raised its expectations for adjusted automotive free cash flow to $9.5 billion to $11.5 billion, up from $9 billion to $11 billion.

The automaker, however, lowered its expectations for net income attributable to stockholders to between $8.4 billion and $9.8 billion, down from previously lowered guidance of between $9.9 billion and $11.4 billion. The company said Tuesday it has “substantially” completed material charges involving its pullback in all-electric vehicles, which have included recording $10.9 billion in EV-related charges since the second half of last year.

Read more at CNBC

At GM, Trump’s Second Term Means Big Trucks—and a Push Into the Defense Industry

General Motors is pivoting its business to capitalize on the Trump administration’s policy changes. Wall Street loves it. The Detroit automaker on Tuesday raised its full-year profit forecast and reported higher revenue despite high gas prices and the fact that Americans are buying fewer cars. Executives touted plans to pour billions into expanding U.S. production of GM’s biggest vehicles, while rolling out new pickups, high-end, gas-powered Cadillacs and military trucks.

GM also has singularly embraced the Trump administration’s push to step up the auto industry’s role in weapons production. The company has talked with Lockheed Martin about making parts for the defense contractor’s weapons and, last month, announced a general agreement between the companies to work together to bolster munitions production. GM’s defense subsidiary is a leading contender to build a large infantry squad vehicle for the U.S. Army that would replace the Humvee. It also builds a lightweight infantry squad vehicle based on the Chevrolet Colorado pickup. Barra said the U.S. Army plans to buy 10,000 of the trucks, pending budget approval, which includes 1,200 already ordered in a deal worth more than $1 billion.

Read more at The WSJ

Earnings of Note

IBM lowered its 2026 forecast and delivered weaker earnings than analysts had projected on Wednesday. IBM said it aims to widen its full-year pre-tax margin by about 1 percentage point through higher productivity. Earnings per share were $2.93 adjusted vs. $2.97 expected and revenue was $17.16 billion vs. $17.58 billion expected. IBM’s revenue grew 1% year over year in the quarter, according to a statement. Net income of $2.17 billion, or $2.30 per share, decreased from $2.19 billion, or $2.36 per share, a year ago. Adjusted earnings exclude acquisition-related adjustments. Management called for 4% to 5% revenue growth in constant currency for 2026. As recently as April, IBM had been looking for over 5% growth at constant currency. The company reiterated expectations for $1 billion in higher free cash flow for the year. CNBC

Northrop Grumman raised its guidance on the back of steady global demand, though some margin softness and projected cost increases are weighing on shares. The aerospace and defense company said Tuesday that it now expects $43.75 billion to $44.25 billion in sales in 2026, adding a quarter-billion dollars to its previous targets. Adjusted earnings are now projected at $28.60 to $29.10 a share, up from $27.40 to $27.90 a share previously. In the second quarter, Northrop posted a profit of $1.09 billion, or $7.68 a share, compared with $1.17 billion, or $8.15 a share, in the same quarter a year earlier. WSJ

Genuine Parts lowered its profit and North American auto-sales expectation for the full year, while second-quarter profit fell despite an uptick in sales growth. The automotive and industrial replacement parts company on Tuesday narrowed its 2026 diluted earnings per share outlook and trimmed its North American automotive sales forecast, pointing to softer regional demand and higher restructuring and separation-related costs now reflected in its earnings range. While total sales growth is still expected to be between 3% to 5.5% in 2026, automotive sales growth is expected to grow at a rate of between 2.5% and 4.5%, compared with expectations of 3% to 5% previously. International automotive sales growth is pegged at a range of 5% to 8%, up from expectations of 3% to 6% growth. For the second quarter, the company reported a decline in net income to $227.6 million, or $1.65 a share, down from $254.9 million, or $1.83 a share, in the same quarter a year ago. – MarketWatch

3M increased its full-year targets as the conglomerate saw higher sales in safety and electronics. The maker of Post-It notes on Tuesday said it now expects adjusted earnings per share between $8.80 and $8.95 for the year, up from a previous range of $8.50 to $8.70. Analysts polled by FactSet currently expect full-year earnings of $8.74 a share. The company also anticipates adjusted total sales growth of over 4.5%, reflecting adjusted organic sales growth of more than 3.5%. For the second quarter, 3M posted net income of $1.78 a share, compared with $1.34 a share, in the same quarter a year ago. Adjusted earnings, which strips out exceptional items and one-off costs came to $2.40 a share. According to FactSet, analysts were expecting $2.25 a share. Net sales rose 2.4% to $6.5 billion, ahead of the $6.4 billion projected by analysts. WSJ

GE Vernova raised its full-year revenue guidance on Wednesday after second-quarter orders and cash generation came in well above year-earlier levels, the company said. The energy company lifted its 2026 revenue outlook to a range of $45.5 billion to $46.5 billion, a $1 billion increase from what it had previously guided. The company also guided higher on free cash flow and its adjusted EBITDA margin. The Power segment posted orders of $16.7 billion, up 134% organically, with revenues rising 14% to $5.5 billion. The Electrification segment posted orders of $6.3 billion, up 66% organically, with revenues climbing 68% to $3.6 billion. Wind was a weak point. Orders fell 40% organically to $1.2 billion, and revenues declined 10% to $2.0 billion, with losses widening due to lower Onshore Wind equipment volume and higher Offshore Wind project costs, the company said. Yahoo Finance

Tesla reported weaker-than-expected earnings for the second quarter even as revenue topped estimates. Earnings per share were 33 cents adjusted vs. 51 cents expected and revenue: $28.24 billion vs. $25.71 billion expected. Revenue at Tesla jumped jumped 26% in the period from $22.5 billion a year earlier, the company said in a statement. Net income fell 5% to $1.11 billion, or 32 cents a share, from $1.17 billion, or 33 cents per share, a year earlier. Tesla’s core automotive segment generated $20.52 billion in revenue, up 23% from a year ago. Revenue in the energy business, which consists of solar and battery energy storage systems, increased 13% to $3.14 billion. In its services and other business, which includes fees for repairing vehicles out of warranty, revenue jumped 50% to $4.58 billion. CNBC

Google parent Alphabet reported its second quarter earnings after the bell on Wednesday, beating Wall Street's expectations on the top and bottom lines as cloud revenue increased 82% year over year. For the quarter, Alphabet saw earnings per share of $9.11 on revenue of $119.8 billion. Analysts were anticipating EPS of and revenue of $116.9 billion. Google's Cloud platform brought in $24.77 billion, above an expected $24.56 billion and well ahead of the $13.6 billion it brought in last year. Advertising revenue came in at $81.63 billion. Analysts were looking for $81.12 billion. Yahoo Finance

JetZero, EXIM Explore Up To $3B Financing For Manufacturing Campus

JetZero and the Export-Import Bank of the United States (EXIM) have agreed to explore up to $3 billion in potential financing support for the startup airframer’s future manufacturing campus in Greensboro, North Carolina. JetZero broke ground on its 8 million-ft.2 factory facility in June, situated on a 600-acre site announced by JetZero in 2025. Assembly of its blended wing body demonstrator is currently underway at Northrop Grumman’s Scaled Composites site in Mojave, California, targeting first flight in the fourth quarter of 2027.

“This will come under our Make More In America (MMIA) initiative, which is designed to help companies exactly like JetZero be able to build and manufacture at scale in the United States, in this case often for the first time,” EXIM Chairman and CEO John Jovanovic said. “What it's going to do is provide a credit guarantee framework where we can crowd-in more private sector lenders and capital participants.” Project costs eligible for the MMIA financing may include the construction of manufacturing facilities, production systems and equipment, the company said. The potential support remains subject to necessary reviews, as well as approval by EXIM’s board, though efforts are underway to fast-track to the next stage, leaders shared.

Read more at Aviation Week

Microsoft set to invest $60M in Energy Department’s Genesis Mission

Microsoft is set to invest $60 million into the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Genesis Mission, which focuses on accelerating scientific discovery and technological leadership through artificial intelligence (AI). The company’s investment will put $40 million towards Azure cloud and AI computing credits over three years to “support large-scale AI and scientific workloads” while $20 million is set aside to help translate cloud and AI capacity into scientific outcomes, according to its blog post.

Microsoft will also support DOE’s Genesis Mission through the new coordination hub FOR scientific discovery named the “Scientific Partnership Advancing Research & Knowledge SPARK. The first four SPARK projects will take place at  the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, with a focus on critical minerals and materials, the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory will helm efforts to strengthen biosecurity, Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory will have autonomous labs for accelerated materials discovery and Idaho National Laboratory is accelerating nuclear energy permitting and autonomous energy operations, according to the blog post.

Read more at The Hill

Daily Market Update July 22, 2026

The August ’26 natural gas contract is trading up $0.04 at $2.90. The August ‘26 crude oil contract is up $2.46 at $86.80. 

Read more at NRG

Learn more about the Council of Industry Energy Buying Group

Quote of the Day

“There are but few important events in the affairs of men brought about by their own choice.”

Ulysses S. Grant - President of the United States and Union General from his 'Memoirs and Selected Letters.' He died on this day in 1885.

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